Search found 514 matches

by phonon266737
Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:09 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?
Replies: 340
Views: 39930

Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

It just doesn't make any sense. It's not even like a "check and balance" because it's the same body voting on both this and the budget. The reality is we use this system because it's the closest thing to an unchecked system congress could sneak into place. If we were civilized like most of...
by phonon266737
Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:55 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Rush Limburger calls Student 'Slut', Backlash
Replies: 338
Views: 178083

Re: Rush Limburger calls Student 'Slut', Backlash

Really, this is entirely about her lack of choice of health insurance. Taxes subsidize group health insurance purchases (your employer can buy it with pre-tax dollars, but you can not), therefore buying through an employer is a big discount even before we factor in the share the employer/university ...
by phonon266737
Tue Feb 07, 2012 9:08 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Unemployment Down once again.
Replies: 54
Views: 8112

Re: Unemployment Down once again.

Is phonon even debating anything other than the previous chart is misleading? I read his article, and it merely repeats the same story. The budget will stabilize in the unlikely event that everyone gets their act together and lets everything expire. (Doc fix doesn't pass, Bush tax cuts expire, AMT ...
by phonon266737
Tue Feb 07, 2012 3:36 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Unemployment Down once again.
Replies: 54
Views: 8112

Re: Unemployment Down once again.

When speaking for the causes of the deficit, I think this image is quite relevant: (Useless Image) The bush tax cats are the larges contributor. The wars have their own nice part to play, then the recession, then recovery measires, then TARP. Placing most of the blame for these deficits on Bush see...
by phonon266737
Mon Feb 06, 2012 8:46 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Unemployment Down once again.
Replies: 54
Views: 8112

Re: Unemployment Down once again.

Kenyesian predicts that the economy will recover during stimulus, not months after it runs out. I guess I might accept the idea that the stimulus prevented a worse downturn, which enabled this recovery. It's already been stated, but it's worth repeating; Keynesian economics would predict the econom...
by phonon266737
Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:30 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Unemployment Down once again.
Replies: 54
Views: 8112

Re: Unemployment Down once again.

On the other hand, did congress do anything important at all in 2011?
Or did we get a split congress that stalemates on everything and the market can finally take some time to figure out what all the regulations and bills passed in 2009 and 2010 actually mean, and start to adapt to them.
by phonon266737
Fri Dec 23, 2011 10:12 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 0994: "Advent Calendar"
Replies: 74
Views: 22606

Re: 0994: "Advent Calendar"

The Zeno thing is as stupid as the "go halfway to point A. do it again and again, but you'll never get there" thing.

The paradox might as well be called "The runner goes half of the way to the tortise, repeatedly. Why won't he ever pass it?"
by phonon266737
Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:03 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Occupy Wall Street - Spreading. Check your town.
Replies: 2500
Views: 238453

Re: Occupy Wall Street - Spreading. Check your town.

So what do we think of Occupy preventing people from working in these west coast ports?
by phonon266737
Tue Dec 06, 2011 11:56 am UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Cannabis Legalization as a really obvious solution
Replies: 39
Views: 8381

Re: Cannabis Legalization as a really obvious solution

yeah I would say unless they could prove you were at work "under the influence" they would have no legal grounds for firing someone. but why would you fire a perfectly good employee just because of what they do in their own time? if the marijuana smoking was affecting their work, they cou...
by phonon266737
Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:11 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Taxation and Balance of Power
Replies: 13
Views: 2596

Re: Taxation and Balance of Power

everyone is better off if instead of taxing and transferring $1, the taxed simply gives $1 So, are you talking chairty? Or Jobs? Because I'm talking employment - the receiver has to choose to, seek , and commit to a working a job. It's hardly a gift, especially when you're talking equivalent income...
by phonon266737
Tue Nov 29, 2011 4:11 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Taxation and Balance of Power
Replies: 13
Views: 2596

Re: Taxation and Balance of Power

When "income equality" means "35% hit in total tax revenue", there's a pretty big barrier to congress heading down that road. My theory is that paying taxes gives you fundamental protections when congress takes up policy; I'm not saying what "I want", I'm pointing out t...
by phonon266737
Tue Nov 29, 2011 2:38 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Taxation and Balance of Power
Replies: 13
Views: 2596

Re: Taxation and Balance of Power

*The nominal rate on earned income is higher, but so are the opportunities for deductions. Dividend/Capital gains income are taxed at a low rate compared to the middle of the road marginal income tax rates. The cap on payroll tax means that the poor and middle class actually pay a higher rate than ...
by phonon266737
Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:39 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Taxation and Balance of Power
Replies: 13
Views: 2596

Re: Taxation and Balance of Power

This is of course a very misleading picture of where tax revenue comes from. State/local taxes and many federal non-income taxes tend to be regressive, so focusing on federal personal income taxes makes it look like the wealthy pay a much larger share of overall taxes than is the case. But then, on...
by phonon266737
Mon Nov 28, 2011 1:00 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Taxation and Balance of Power
Replies: 13
Views: 2596

Taxation and Balance of Power

Greetings All, With all the Occupy stuff going on, I got to focusing on somewhat of a paradox. They target profits as the enemy, and at the same time want corporations and the rich to shoulder the tax burden. So, let's say I'm a politician. I like spending money on people. They vote for me. I need m...
by phonon266737
Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:01 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Cannabis Legalization as a really obvious solution
Replies: 39
Views: 8381

Re: Cannabis Legalization as a really obvious solution

Just throwing this out here as an alternative scenario, but what if: Smoking marijana becomes legal, however you can still get a DUI if driving on it. Employers still have the right to drug-test / terminate their employees if they so choose - even if you get rid of the criminal side of things, some ...
by phonon266737
Wed Aug 17, 2011 6:01 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Nasa, perhaps this is a hint...
Replies: 37
Views: 6887

Re: Nasa, perhaps this is a hint...

Technical Ben wrote:Giant arrow shaped cloud appears on Saturn's Moon.
I don't care if it's a natural formation, just for the giggles, NASA need to go there now.


Umm..We have Cassini there..it took the photo to begin with. Is that not good enough!?
by phonon266737
Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:25 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Jailed for cashing a Chase check at a Chase bank
Replies: 93
Views: 9732

Re: Jailed for cashing a Chase check at a Chase bank

I feel lucky now! I moved to Manhattan in January. My personal bank has no branches in the city, and it's nice/necessary to have access to your money. I happened upon a shopping center with both a chase and citizens bank in it. I went to chase, and explained the situation: I'm going to go across the...
by phonon266737
Thu Jan 06, 2011 6:00 am UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Thinking Globally
Replies: 16
Views: 2394

Re: Thinking Globally

This is something that I always think about, and to some extent, it really comes down to taxes. In the US, the government as a whole collects about 40% of the GDP in taxes, with only a small portion of this being state and local. When the smaller scale government don't have a whole lot of money, the...
by phonon266737
Sat Nov 20, 2010 2:45 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: TSA starts molesting people who refuse naked scanners
Replies: 714
Views: 56530

Re: TSA starts molesting people who refuse naked scanners

Random thought I just had
If the images output from this "naked body scanner" are considered acceptable to be all over the news, doesn't that say something about the "nakedness"
by phonon266737
Thu Nov 18, 2010 5:37 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Let's Talk About Energy Production
Replies: 872
Views: 95666

Re: Let's Talk About Energy Production

I'm going to pull rank here a little bit..but the current director of Photovoltaics at NREL was my graduate thesis adviser, and while while I didn't personally focus on photovoltaics, I certainly heard enough about them. Two major factors being forgotten here - the cells degrade / break / get dirty....
by phonon266737
Thu Nov 18, 2010 4:50 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Let's Talk About Energy Production
Replies: 872
Views: 95666

Re: Let's Talk About Energy Production

It has some merit, in that if you have 2 supplies with an 80% chance of each not producing, the probability of having 100% capacity is 1 - [P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)] = 1 - (0.8 + 0.8 - .8^2) = 1 - 1.6 + .64 = 4% Our expectations were 20% of the time without Mosc's square rule, but (oddly enough, I w...
by phonon266737
Mon Nov 15, 2010 5:48 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: What would a US sovereign debt crisis be like?
Replies: 66
Views: 10675

Re: What would a US sovereign debt crisis be like?

But an unemployed worker who gets a job is not an average worker. She represents at that moment, by definition, a margin of the market. The labour market contains of course lots of specializations with their own margins, so some newly-hireds can be much more productive than others. But within each ...
by phonon266737
Mon Nov 15, 2010 2:20 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: What would a US sovereign debt crisis be like?
Replies: 66
Views: 10675

Re: What would a US sovereign debt crisis be like?

They aren't exactly the same, but they are closely related. One could assume that in an unsaturated labor market, an average worker should be able to find an average job with average productivity per hour. As the marginal rate falls and new jobs are added, the average will follow. On the scale of co...
by phonon266737
Mon Nov 15, 2010 9:21 am UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: What would a US sovereign debt crisis be like?
Replies: 66
Views: 10675

Re: What would a US sovereign debt crisis be like?

Quick response: it is more likely that France is an outlier than that we're underperforming. France has significant legislation limiting the number of hours someone can work, which suggests that the hours dropped will be the lowest quality hours- thus, their GDP per hour worked can be higher becaus...
by phonon266737
Mon Nov 15, 2010 1:57 am UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: What would a US sovereign debt crisis be like?
Replies: 66
Views: 10675

Re: What would a US sovereign debt crisis be like?

Worth noting - France's GDP Per Capita is almost 30% less than the United States'
by phonon266737
Wed Nov 10, 2010 9:54 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: What would a US sovereign debt crisis be like?
Replies: 66
Views: 10675

Re: What would a US sovereign debt crisis be like?

The debt "owed to the government" is still a claim on future revenue. Defaulting on that debt would be refusing to pay out social security and medicare - essentially forced budget cuts.. The whole deficit discussion is about cutting services today gradually versus cutting services abruptly...
by phonon266737
Sat Nov 06, 2010 12:39 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?
Replies: 62
Views: 7714

Re: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?

Question:
When the Fed announces QE, can anyone exchange immature bonds for cash? Or only the federal government?
by phonon266737
Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:02 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?
Replies: 62
Views: 7714

Re: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?

Are US policymakers using these models? Gut feeling says, they aren't. Unless the models also include how many voters will get angry by removing certain policies.
by phonon266737
Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:17 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?
Replies: 62
Views: 7714

Re: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?

In better words, I'm wondering if the theories take into account all the side-effects, inflation, interest rates, etc. Pumping money into the economy will create demand if it has no externalities, it's hard to argue with that. But while the marginal "good" of a new dollar is fairly constan...
by phonon266737
Thu Nov 04, 2010 9:07 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Stimulus vs National Debt
Replies: 104
Views: 16039

Re: Stimulus vs National Debt

Quote Mark Cuban our politicians seem to think that more bank lending to startups is a key to creating new jobs. It’s not. In fact, banks are smart enough to realize that unless they can pawn the loan onto someone else, like the Small Business Association, there is no good reason to loan a startup m...
by phonon266737
Sun Oct 31, 2010 12:11 am UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?
Replies: 62
Views: 7714

Re: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?

So since you can't assume that the deficit/benefit curve has particular properties like linearity (or even continuity - think of the jump in perception between $9.99 and $10), the claim that "there is a level of deficit spending that is undeniably harmful, therefore some lesser amount deficit ...
by phonon266737
Sat Oct 30, 2010 1:47 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?
Replies: 62
Views: 7714

Re: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?

OP: What's the point at which deficit starts doing harm? the point at which deficit spending starts doing harm is defined practically tautologically Thanks for your input, you're a real contributor. Anyway.... Look at "Stimulus" spending as any other investment - in this case, investing in...
by phonon266737
Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:09 am UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?
Replies: 62
Views: 7714

Re: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?

The purpose of stimulus is not to improve GDP today, it's to have a higher GDP when the stimulus spending ends than you would have had otherwise. The fact is, deficits and debt hurt GDP in the future. I think that statement is a bit too strong. The purpose of stimulus is to both improve GDP today a...
by phonon266737
Fri Oct 29, 2010 3:34 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?
Replies: 62
Views: 7714

Re: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?

The purpose of stimulus is not to improve GDP today, it's to have a higher GDP when the stimulus spending ends than you would have had otherwise. The fact is, deficits and debt hurt GDP in the future. I haven't seen a single counter-argument here that addresses the fact that there just might be a le...
by phonon266737
Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:48 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Avoiding over-consumption
Replies: 91
Views: 10074

Re: Avoiding over-consumption

You can't forget the marketing machine. Many people's job is to try and suck the spare change out of the consumer.
Case in point - in grad school, on my 12k / yr research stipend .. i stuck half of it in the bank. I plan on retirng early.
by phonon266737
Fri Oct 22, 2010 11:37 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?
Replies: 62
Views: 7714

Re: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?

It depends on the size of the government, the state the economy is in, what the spending is on, the overall mood, and so on, but in the general sense the basic idea is that the economy can get stuck in a state that is below full employment. The classical view was that no matter what economies tend ...
by phonon266737
Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:21 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?
Replies: 62
Views: 7714

Re: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?

I take umbrage at your wording. Models can be accurate within a certain area. Theories are either true or false. Newton's theories of motion and gravity were dead wrong, but his models were accurate enough for us to get a man to the moon. The question is whether we're looking for a 'theory' of econ...
by phonon266737
Thu Oct 21, 2010 12:49 pm UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?
Replies: 62
Views: 7714

Re: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?

2. If the government injects $1 million dollars, GDP (because of the multiplier assuming it was injected efficiently) will go up more than $1. If they have to even pay a total of 20% interest through the few years of recession, you might pay $.20, so you're only missing out on a small portion of th...
by phonon266737
Thu Oct 21, 2010 5:41 am UTC
Forum: Serious Business
Topic: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?
Replies: 62
Views: 7714

Re: Breakdown of Keynsian Economics?

That's not what I mean by break down (and I think I was using it in the way the OP intended). He seemed to be looking for some brightline, eg. if debt:GDP is above 1.2, then Keynesian stimulus doesn't work. .....I don't see that it becomes "false" above some level. Clearly you don't under...

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