Search found 18 matches

by zanglebert
Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:18 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 2101: Technical Analysis
Replies: 31
Views: 7004

Re: 2101: Technical Analysis

@Heimhenge I personally wouldn't dismiss analysis of individual trends completely, but yeah you're on point here, cross-section of returns is pretty much the bread and butter of this field.
by zanglebert
Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:49 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 2101: Technical Analysis
Replies: 31
Views: 7004

Re: 2101: Technical Analysis

[...] I haven't managed to read zanglebert's article yet but if it demonstrates that technical analysis doesn't work then it will be a victory for common sense. Their results are more nuanced actually -- which is why I like this one so much. The authors start from the observation that in recent yea...
by zanglebert
Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:04 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 2101: Technical Analysis
Replies: 31
Views: 7004

Re: 2101: Technical Analysis

Howzers wrote:That alt-text is the crotchetiest thing I've read on this website, and sounds a lot like the kind of 'the state of x nowadays' grumbling that Randall normally takes issue with.


It's obviously completely different if it's about finance! /s
by zanglebert
Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:16 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 2101: Technical Analysis
Replies: 31
Views: 7004

Re: 2101: Technical Analysis

I'll just leave this here...

(pretty ancient admittedly... still, one of my absolute favorites. Their methodology is about as rigorous as it gets in the field of finance <-- enter snarky remark about low baseline *here*)
by zanglebert
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:23 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1985: "Meteorologist"
Replies: 54
Views: 14812

Re: 1985: "Meteorologist"

Obligatory get out of me head ... That said: Does anybody who works or worked in weather forecasting know how we're supposed to interpret those probabilities? 5 consecutive hours of "20% chance of rain" certainly isn't intended to say "certain rain in the afternoon". It could be ...
by zanglebert
Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:31 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1965: "Background Apps"
Replies: 33
Views: 11776

Re: 1965: "Background Apps"

an app that does not behave well when backgrounded (or anytime, really) shouldn't be closed, but deleted. there's generally enough competition to find a better replacement. That's like saying "Don't get a virus scanner, simply avoid the shady parts of the web" in response to security rela...
by zanglebert
Thu May 18, 2017 8:06 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1838: "Machine Learning"
Replies: 22
Views: 7618

Re: 1838: "Machine Learning"

As for Machine Learning, I think they need to take a serious moment to think about p-hacking . The ML people I know have no clue what I'm talking about, which is worrisome. Now that is a valid criticism of the field... "Our results improve the previous state-of-the-art on the task by 0.025%, w...
by zanglebert
Wed May 17, 2017 1:13 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1838: "Machine Learning"
Replies: 22
Views: 7618

Re: 1838: "Machine Learning"

That's sorta a high level outline of some of the things involved, but it's not very informative. I like this article http://karpathy.github.io/2015/05/21/rnn-effectiveness/ My favourite application of an RNN is https://twitter.com/RoboRosewater And of course the classic card: (spoilered for large i...
by zanglebert
Wed May 17, 2017 8:47 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1838: "Machine Learning"
Replies: 22
Views: 7618

1838: "Machine Learning"

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/machine_learning.png Title text = The pile gets soaked with data and starts to get mushy over time, so it's technically recurrent. Clever presentation, but I'm a bit unimpressed by the same old message. Some grain of truth in it, I guess, but ML doesn't exactly work lik...
by zanglebert
Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:00 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1584: Moments of Inspiration
Replies: 49
Views: 9707

Re: 1584: Moments of Inspiration

Best one in a while, I thought.

Now, try the inspiration behind supersymmetry...
by zanglebert
Mon Aug 31, 2015 1:11 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1570: "Engineer Syllogism"
Replies: 41
Views: 13332

Re: 1570: "Engineer Syllogism"

If you only look at the numbers and trends in the stock market, you will eventually lose. There are factors outside repeating trends that can cause stock to rise (announcement of a takeover) or drop (someone in a sandy country deciding to produce lots of oil). Using numbers alone is unreliable. &qu...
by zanglebert
Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:41 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1570: "Engineer Syllogism"
Replies: 41
Views: 13332

Re: 1570: "Engineer Syllogism"

Right, but I think the contention is that the benefits of strategy plateau at a certain level of skill, but chance still plays a huge role, so people who perform unusually well are statistical oddities rather than uniquely capable people and shouldn't have any better odds of performing unusually we...
by zanglebert
Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:19 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1570: "Engineer Syllogism"
Replies: 41
Views: 13332

Re: 1570: "Engineer Syllogism"

So many have lost it all thinking they can predict numbers in a game of roulette. If you just look at the numbers, then the stock market is just as unpredictable. Hm... Not really. Markets are well known to exhibit momentum and autocorrelation patterns. Roulette, on the other hand, hardly so (unles...
by zanglebert
Sun Aug 30, 2015 11:48 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1570: "Engineer Syllogism"
Replies: 41
Views: 13332

Re: 1570: "Engineer Syllogism"

It's easy enough to handle your investments such that on average they keep pace with the overall growth of the stock market, but anything that grows faster than the overall market is doing so at the expense of somebody else. Yes, the pie is continually growing bigger as the aggregate collection of ...
by zanglebert
Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:14 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1392: "Dominant Players"
Replies: 187
Views: 40680

Re: 1392: "Dominant Players"

Why "Chess" and "Chess (women)"? If you're going to suffix a description you have to be consistent, you're explying that the first category includes everybody - including women. It should be "Chess (men)" and "Chess (women)". Because the first one does includ...
by zanglebert
Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:53 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1392: "Dominant Players"
Replies: 187
Views: 40680

Re: 1392: "Dominant Players"

Two more observations: Why separate men and women in a game based purely on intellect and which has nothing to do with physical characteristics? To partly answer my own question, the world used to be pretty sexist, and chess (as well as many other things) wasn't as accessible to women, but surely i...
by zanglebert
Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:35 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1386: "People are Stupid"
Replies: 256
Views: 48037

Re: 1386: "People are Stupid"

mmmh, the sweet, sweet irony... The comic: Be excellent to each other. Don't act all superior because of some perceived (and actually kinda doubtful) intellectual superiority. The discussion in here about said comic: Don't tell me not to feel superior, Randall! Clearly, I am objectively smarter tha...
by zanglebert
Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:20 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1386: "People are Stupid"
Replies: 256
Views: 48037

Re: 1386: "People are Stupid"

mmmh, the sweet, sweet irony... The comic: Be excellent to each other. Don't act all superior because of some perceived (and actually kinda doubtful) intellectual superiority. The discussion in here about said comic: Don't tell me not to feel superior, Randall! Clearly, I am objectively smarter than...

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