xkcd

Not quite, we copped misterk the first night, who turned out to be both independent as well as dead. So close to a perfect run

I was going to do a nice, neat analysis, but honestly, I don't really feel the need to having looked at what's happened in the past 24 hours or so. Let's recap, shall we?

Weeks lists cjdrum as the scummiest player still in the game, which is...baffling, to me, and votes for them. Statements here and later suggests they're not voting for scummyness as much as for lurkiness? Mavketl states the obvious. cjdrum pops in and advises they've asked to be replaced. Weeks unvotes, not because of Mav's comment, but because cjdrum has said they're asking for a replacement. FAOT votes Weeks largely based on what I've just outlined. Weeks...more or less makes an OMGUS post and vote.

Picking what looks to be easy targets, vote hopping, OMGUS'ing, quick to be defensive...I'm past pinging, there's warning klaxons going off here just from the past day or so.

Vote Weeks

cjdrum wrote:Sorry for not posting, I'm quite flavour-blind and have a~~n averagely~~ boring-ish role. I'll try to post more, but it's hard for me to try to rolespec into who was associated with who and whatnot. Sorry!

We're really a little past the point where we're limited to rolespec. In fact, I'd argue we were past that point yesterday as well. After D1/N1, there's generally enough game-mechanic-based info that, even if you don't know the flavour, you can contribute based on who suspected who, when and where votes were casts, who turned up dead in the morning, and the like.

I'm inclined to write this off as newbness, but still - there's more than enough info out there to start having and sharing opinions, and it helps others piece together who is likely scum or not (which is more beneficial to town, as a rule, as scum generally already have an idea of who is who).

This may be the only time I'll ever say this anywhere, so listen carefully: LURK LESS. POST MOAR.

On that note...(spoilered to make the post not super long)

Spoiler:

PhoenixEnigma - Well, clearly, I'm town

Really, though, self analysis is rather useless for mafia imo.

ForAllOfThis - Argued pretty hard for what turned out to be a town lynch, and on what I'd consider pretty shaky evidence, but they were also very vocal about it. Either very bold scum or town, I think, and I'm leaning slightly towards town still.

and yeah, ninja'd a bit on the cjdrum thing.

Weeks - Has posted a lot - more than I have time to fully analyze while at work. Notice a mix of one-line type posts and longer ones, so the actual number of useful posts may be a little lower than it looks like at first glance. Lots of analysis and such tends to be either quite pro-town, or scum saying lots of obvious things and repeating others. Will need to go back and look over this later.

cjdrum - see above. Lurky, but that might be newbness, and in such a way I can't draw any conclusions. I'm deeply unhappy with the situation - I don't want to maybe give a free pass to scum, but I don't want to lynch without evidence, either. Wooy` has a point, though - claiming "don't look at me, I have a boring role" doesn't really come across very well.

Mavketl - Like Weeks, more posts than I can really analyze at work (as, you know, I kinda have to do actual work once in a while). Posts seem to average the same length as Weeks, maybe, but more consistent in length, dunno what that says. Another one to mark for a better look later.

VectorZero - See my earlier thoughts when voting for VZ. Haven't seen anything to change my mind, would consider to be on the scummy side of the scale. Same thing as FOAT, but without the same "redeeming" vocal and aggressive aspect. I'd like to hear a little more from them today, but very much IGMEOY.

Wooy` - Hasn't said a whole lot, most of what they have said seems fairly cautious, but reasonable. Nothing that really pings me specifically, although the late vote on wei, while explicitly noting that it could look scummy, could be a sort of wifom bandwagon deal. Not sure how far down that road I want to go, wine leads to madness (and occasional hangovers).

Chandani - Even more than than cjdrum, has been under my radar. They did kind of hop on the more_people bandwagon, but also mentioned in passing they have played on another forum where that's more typical. I'll buy that, but it also implies they're not very new to the game, which is something to keep in mind. Other than that, they do seem to be making at least a few posts outlining opinions and reasoning, and making some effort to drive discussion. The replacement thing is a little worrying, but I don't really see where all the hate is coming from.

tl;dr: Need to look more at Weeks and Mav, but want to post this now. Still kinda liking VZ as scum. cjdrum doesn't sit well with me, either, but there's not enough there to be too happy. Really don't follow the suspicion on Chandani.

and yeah, ninja'd a bit on the cjdrum thing

I'm going to not make this too long because deadline is so close, but the t;dr is that, while I said I found the VZ/FAOT positions scummy, and I still disagree with the logic being used there, I'm willing to believe that FAOT is well intentioned at least. VZ I get no such good vibes from.

I'm going to

Vote: VectorZero

for now, with the note that if needed, I'll be casting a vote for Weiy (who I feel is maybe a bit scummier) if we're still at a tie there with <10 minutes to go.

ForAllOfThis wrote:To be honest I'm getting fed up of this bullshit argument because people clearly people aren't reading what I'm saying, so I'll state it one more time. We should be looking with suspicion at everyone but not voting yesterday should be factored in alongside content posted, lurkiness etc., for considering how scummy a player is acting.

While I can't speak for others, that's not what I'm arguing at all - people's voting patterns (or lack thereof) are clearly useful information that needs to be considered. What I'm arguing against is your conclusion - that the people who didn't vote for m_p and force us to a hard lynch are worthy of suspicion. As a rule of thumb, cutting day short is bad for town, as it deprives us of potential information. At the same time, jumping on a bandwagon that's already pretty much sold is fairly well recognized as somewhat scummy behavior, and I can't see a good reason for town to do that*.

*Unless there was the risk of scum backing out and putting us below a soft lynch threshold (not possible in this game) or, as you said, suddenly switching en mass to another target (which would be terrible play for scum early in the game, and likely impossible to plan in advance).

well, that was ninja'd in extravagant style by Weeks.

With some rereading, I've realized I'm crap at this "here's an idea, here's all my evidence" thing.

So, wei was pinging me, and I couldn't quite figure out why. Rereading, they seem to be very reserved, for lack of a better word. They haven't been horribly active, and a lot of what they've said strikes me as "well, maybe, but I dunno." I haven't played a game with them in quite a while, but I'm pretty sure that's par for the course with them (someone correct me if I'm wrong). I still don't like it.

I am also very distrustful of the VZ/FOAT position of suspecting people who didn't vote yesterday. Advocating that the townie thing to do would have been to (needlessly and knowingly) place oneself in a place to be suspected, creating wine and, arguably, increasing the odds of town being lynched day 2 is...well, wtf inducing, really. If I could vote for two people, I'd vote for both of them. As I can't, and don't really believe in FoS'ing...gah...scerw it, I'm not going to vote right now, because it's going to force me to come back and make another post in order to vote, and I need the motivation.

Wooy` more or less summed up a lot of my thoughts, particularly in regards to the "Gee Willikers you didn't vote them you are so so so scummy" thing. I don't get it - if there were voters #7 and 8, we'd be looking at them suspiciously for hopping on a bandwagon that'd already left town as a way to get townie-points, and people are suggesting that players who opted out of being in that position, with no loss, are scummy? I dunnot get it.

There's a couple players that I don't really have a great feeling about, but at this point I don't have anything to back that up, and I'd rather not throw baseless accusations about. Time to grab some coffee and see if I'm imagining things or not.

Right now, I'm inclined to vote for m_p if nothing else happens. Not so much because I find them exceedingly scummy (although they are certainly pinging me), but because they are making a lot of noise and confusion without saying much of meaning. Even if they're not scum, it's great cover for whoever is (notice how we've really stopped discussing anything else, despite some pretty *ahem* early and interesting moves by, for example, misterk?). At this rate, I don't think I'll be able to get a meaningful read on them, and I get the impression others may have the same problem. I'd prefer it to be dealt with somehow else - a vig kill would be ideal, if there's one out there, or mod action I suppose - but it's a mess I don't want to have around at endgame.

Given that D1 tends to be the least accurate day for lynching, it seems like now is a good time to do so if we're going to at all.

Actually, what the hell, by my count this will be vote 5 for them, so it's not like we're quite rushing headlong into this:

vote: more_people

If we can resolve that some other way, I...will need to reread and filter out that. I'm not sold too much on the cjdrum lynch right now, but that's mostly a gut feeling. As mentioned, I'm pretty sure it would be easy for scum to fly under the radar right now if they so desired, so that's something I'll be keeping an eye towards.

I've been a little quiet for a turbo, my bad.

Regarding cjdrum - there seems to be something funny there, but I'm not sure it's scummy-funny. The initial confusion about claiming and actors makes sense to me, in that there is a reasonable explanation for it. The bit about character parallels, I still don't get. It doesn't seem related to the "avoid quoting with a direct claim" thing to me, as they've explicitly stated that it's their role and not a construct to get around something. Their reaction was also pretty defensive, but I could also chalk that up to newness.

more_people I just don't get, at this point. If there was any role from the movie that screamed jester, I'd be betting on that. I just...what?

mister_k seems a little suspicious, with the quick rapid vote and not a lot to back things up, but seems to be getting a little overlooked with the current mess. I'm also inclined to cut them less slack, as they can't plead newbness.

I'm going to be back again before deadline, and count current votes and cast one of my own then, I think, as I've already been ninja'd beyond belief.

Having just watched this for the first time, I'm not entirely sure what to expect from this game, but I do believe the comments on bastardy and moles and such are probably accurate. I'm guessing less "bastard" and more "betrayal and disinformation" though, in the sense that the rules are probably perfectly clear, but probably lots of roles with grey areas and odd combinations of powers and win conditions. Maybe at least a smattering of cop metagaming - cops who may or may not be reliable, and millers and godfathers to add to the mess - as well.

Also, the movie uses the word haberdashery. This makes me very happy, but has nothing to do with the game.

xkcd

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