Search found 236 matches

by SFX
Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:38 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Example. One thing that jumps out is that you seem to switch pretty arbitrarily between one month data and three-month data, and between minimum, average, and maximum temperatures. There are no questions in your post to answer. No arguments, no refutations, nothing but unrelated observations. Why wo...
by SFX
Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:55 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Staying on topic... I am having trouble with the listed web site. Can anyone provide a link or help in obtaining daily highs and lows for the same time period? I would like to find a the temperture where the total number of days whose high temperture was higher than that point (the same as the numbe...
by SFX
Tue Jul 01, 2014 4:09 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

SFX wrote:After some thought, and some research, there may be a way to show, in a scientific manner one of the things that seem to be confusing some folks.
The text only version would be confusing I'm sure.
by SFX
Tue Jul 01, 2014 4:03 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

gmalivuk wrote:You know there are plenty of other people in this thread who can give you actual responses, right?
If there was even one person who could respond, in a scientific manner, that would be great.
by SFX
Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:47 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Most of that is for sure going to go right over the head
by SFX
Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:39 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

After some thought, and some research, there may be a way to show, in a scientific manner one of the things that seem to be confusing some folks. Experience has taught one thing for sure, that its 'impossible to to get through to a closed mind, but it is the internet, you never know. tl;dr - I show ...
by SFX
Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:25 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Haha, you just make things up. I got it now, it's comedy. Haha good one I mean, when you look at a GISS map, that shows, with no doubt, the winter trend for the areas in the discussion, are cooling, not warming, and it doesn't seem to mean anything, what else can it be? http://forums.xkcd.com/downlo...
by SFX
Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:21 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1379: "4.5 Degrees"
Replies: 879
Views: 155334

Re: 1379: "4.5 Degrees"

The comic is an interesting way to frame the current global warming scare story, something everybody can use. We should be scared, frightened, and very angry. Why? Because at least 10 million people are going to be killed by CLIMATE CHANGE. Maybe more. Climate Change will probably kill more people t...
by SFX
Sun Jun 29, 2014 10:26 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Have the winters been getting colder? Some places, for sure. http://i.imgur.com/1FWmVMg.png And now you're only counting from 1995, not even going back to the 1990 of your earlier images. Could that possibly be because the image supports your argument less if you go back farther? http://forums.xkcd...
by SFX
Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:08 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1379: "4.5 Degrees"
Replies: 879
Views: 155334

Re: 1379: "4.5 Degrees"

Actually, no. The people here who've been behaving the way they have in here are not welcome to come to SB and fuck up the discussion there (again). Awww.. you ruined my trap. And now it's unlocked again, because I hate myself. - ST http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/1100/7154/origina...
by SFX
Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:43 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

This is why we can't have nice things.
by SFX
Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:00 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Tyndmyr wrote:You realize this is a discussion forum, and treating the people you are obstensibly discussing things with as rab lats is a little wierd, right?
Well, if we are talking ostensibly, or things are seeming weird, then everybody calm down, it's just the internet.
by SFX
Fri Jun 27, 2014 5:50 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Like using SS as a scientific source, anyone who becomes insulting or angry in a discussion about weather, loses. Those are poor standards. . Which is your judgement call. No problem. Now you know how I see the angry and insulting nonsense that is offered as a discussion. Like linking or quoting SS...
by SFX
Fri Jun 27, 2014 4:30 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Tyndmyr wrote:And that whole "blinding" thing was just strange..
Only to the subjects. It seems logical and fine to me.
by SFX
Fri Jun 27, 2014 4:29 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Remember this? When I didn't respond right away to your asking for the source? Which data is this? Where can we find it to do our own analyses. And yet even after I sourced everything, and introduced you to the NOW data, linking directly to the St Louis area (rather than making you go through the le...
by SFX
Fri Jun 27, 2014 4:16 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Like using SS as a scientific source, anyone who becomes insulting or angry in a discussion about weather, loses. Making it personal, using vulgarities, insults, none of that says "this is a logical scientific mind at work here". Oh no, it shows something else. As for the experiment, it's ...
by SFX
Fri Jun 27, 2014 3:51 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Anyway, the essence of science is forming a hypothesis, making a prediction, and testing whether observations match the prediction. Observation, or experiments. According to Feynman, either one will work. “The essence of science is that it is always willing to abandon a given idea for a better one;...
by SFX
Fri Jun 27, 2014 5:21 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

I guess you just made up that "blinded" graph, since you're unwilling or unable to tell us where ot's supposed to be from. Until somebody answers the obvious, and easy to grasp question, it will be blinded. Why is it so hard to just look at data, with out any bias, and say what you observ...
by SFX
Fri Jun 27, 2014 5:06 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

SFX evidently didn't realize that 'blinded' is when researchers hide the variables from the test subjects and/or the researchers. A blind or blinded experiment is an experiment in which information about the test that might lead to bias in the results is concealed from the tester, the subject, or b...
by SFX
Fri Jun 27, 2014 3:29 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Moving along. From the Title text: 'You see the same pattern all over. Take Detroit--'

Yes,let's take Detroit. Detroit is a lot easier than St Louis to look at data
by SFX
Thu Jun 26, 2014 10:50 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

But of course when you do the same thing it's a perfectly legitmate practice known as a "blinded graph". LOL! Except I already posted the same thing, unblinded , earlier in the thread, and by now anyone who cares can go generate the same graph and see what it means. I find it interesting ...
by SFX
Thu Jun 26, 2014 9:46 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Every argument about climate change (including all of my own, and including this post), can be summed up by this . Excellent input. The "arguments" about the weather, temperatures, trends, winters being colder, or warmer, are hilarious, because in a scientific world, there could be no act...
by SFX
Thu Jun 26, 2014 8:31 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Izawwlgood wrote:SFX, why is the top of your second graph cut off? I'm not sure what you're actually posting, aside from 'different graph that SFX claims shows the US isn't warming'
It's a blinded graph. Remember, you can always find the source by removing the .png from the url
by SFX
Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:59 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

In fact, it seems like it's getting hotter again with over one third of the country in drought. That's because you are ignoring the binomial filter . You look at this http://i.imgur.com/PgG09Ij.png and think "oh fuck look at the warming rather than look at it like this http://i.imgur.com/xQNWz...
by SFX
Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:35 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

But that erases the argument. It would be flat clear that there's been warming. You couldn't be more wrong. The data clearly shows not only no warming, but a pronounced cooling, a climate change even. Or rather, an unusual asymmetric change, which strongly suggests measurement problems more than an...
by SFX
Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:10 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Are you sure you got that url right? I don't see cooling in the last decade there. Like the NCDC app you can't always link to the right data you want to display. (One reason I generate images instead) This might help. The U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) matches the NCDC US climate data for t...
by SFX
Thu Jun 26, 2014 12:30 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Ah, so this is where the global warming thread has gone... No. In fact, I discussed this with a Mod and he said do not turn this into a global warming thread. There is plenty of material regarding winters, and the unusual record cold of the last winter, to keep things interesting for a long time. H...
by SFX
Thu Jun 26, 2014 12:24 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Here's what I get using the St. Louis summer temperatures from earlier in the thread and convoluting the temperature with a Gaussian with a standard deviation of 10 years. ] That's pretty cool. Several things. Where did you get St Louis data that far back? The NOW data? Second, you do realize that ...
by SFX
Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:18 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Because the very first thing that idiot blog does is use Hansen 2001 as a source. Yes, because you don't link to any refutation, heck your link to the study (as if that would self-refute?) doesn't work. The joke is pretty simple. That link is what the idiot SS uses to "source" their argum...
by SFX
Tue Jun 24, 2014 4:11 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

But the true warmer believes that somehow they changed the daily readings to account for the changes. Science would have us compare the data with all the other records from the area, to see if there really was a huge annual increase in temperatures, starting in 1984. Hmm. Maybe someone already answ...
by SFX
Tue Jun 24, 2014 12:48 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

more robust statistical methods show continued warming even when restricted to the latest couple of decades Ah, just the urban heat island effect! http://www.coyoteblog.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/05/31/forestgrove.jpg In 1900, this thermometer was measuring the temperature of miles and miles of ...
by SFX
Tue Jun 24, 2014 12:29 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

speising wrote: will that have an impact on winter measurements?
If it's a scientific question, the matter could be resolved. Using science. How cool would that be? Of course, if you start making temperature measurements and station location and records all scientific, there won't be much to argue about.
by SFX
Mon Jun 23, 2014 9:03 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

You should try it on a hundred year period, using the Missouri data. Why a 100-year period? The warming started around 1970. There's exactly why you should actually see for yourself. It's a fascinating thing to look at long term data, and poke around for a few hours, being all skeptical and stuff. ...
by SFX
Mon Jun 23, 2014 6:46 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

[ The Siegel variation , where you compute the median for each point and then the median of those, seems more robust to finding underlying trends even in very noisy data. You should try it on a hundred year period, using the Missouri data. Even with the past being adjusted down, to make it seem col...
by SFX
Mon Jun 23, 2014 6:02 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

schapel wrote:You may want to use a Theil-Sen estimator and compute a 95% confidence interval for the trend.

Tamino thinks both methods will work, but mentions no scientific papers on the matter.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/03/02/theil-sen/

Which strange since I easily found hundreds.
by SFX
Sun Jun 22, 2014 10:32 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Let's also look at your other lovely "trends" with last winter dropped: St. Louis, 1990-2013: -5.6F/cen - If your trend gets cut in half from the removal of one data point, it's not very robust. Here's what I think you are trying to link to. The St Louis min temp winter trend leaving off ...
by SFX
Sat Jun 21, 2014 9:24 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

And of course, like anything even remotely connected to climate, that will be fought over tooth and nail. I mean, it's so important some people will actually want to kill you over the weather. or the weather records. You're definitely right about that point. That fraud was debunked a while ago. I t...
by SFX
Sat Jun 21, 2014 8:19 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

So unless you're basing your "clear cooling trend" argument on only a decade and a half of data, it remains the case that winters on average are getting warmer in the Saint Louis area. I think the twenty year trend line shows up clearly in the graphs. So does a 25 year trend line. http://...
by SFX
Sat Jun 21, 2014 6:44 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

It's a fool's errand to argue about it. Even if you show a clear warming trend, someone will just post one photo of a weather station next to the heat output of an air conditioner and claim the data is just showing the urban heat island effect. I tend to agree, and it goes both ways. I show that th...
by SFX
Sat Jun 21, 2014 6:18 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1321: "Cold"
Replies: 517
Views: 94373

Re: 1321: "Cold"

Indeed, in fact the "couple of days that dipped below zero" were in reality some of the coldest weather the city of St Louis has ever experienced, certainly the coldest most people who read xkcd ever experienced. This I will grant you, simply because xkcd readership is disproportionately ...

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