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by Sabrar
Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:51 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32762
Views: 2560803

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em
Spoiler:
bessie wrote:I’m having a lot of anxiety right now because I’m eventually going to have to come to terms with killing Sabrar and removing him from the game he loves.
You're totally absolved, you were dead by the time it happened so all responsibility is on Zen. :D
by Sabrar
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:52 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32762
Views: 2560803

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em My gut still says town, but if we misslynch until LYLO and Zen is still alive, lynch Zen. I'm serious, if I'm dead and that situation comes up and I am ignored I will frown at everyone sternly from beyond the grave. I almost posted the exact same thing about BoomFrog at one poi...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:49 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32762
Views: 2560803

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em
Spoiler:
Oh... Thanks. Then I totally misread BoomFrog's comments here.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:53 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32762
Views: 2560803

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em
Spoiler:
I'm assuming third scum is Zen?
If so then that team was super-scary...

Good to see that my streak of being the N1 kill continues as planned. :cry:
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:22 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32762
Views: 2560803

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em Damn. Was about 99.9% sure that Vic and bessie had chat. I did notice BoomFrog defending bessie but he also attacked Vicarin so in my mind he couldn't be part of the scum-team. I would like to believe that I'd have taken a second look at him following Vic's mislynch but who...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:50 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Vicarin wrote:@Sabrar: I addressed your initial argument which was that you were 85% confident.
Yes, it was based on math.
Vicarin wrote:Just because you shift the goalposts
No matter how many times you claim I shifted, it never happened. Please stop this line.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:49 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

A flip - yes Someone claiming scum outside the triplet you gave - really? do you think it would ever happen? why include it? Bessie/Me/Mark claiming an Ace PR. - I've been dreading this the whole time. But if you were Masons you would have realized what my 85% referred to. As explained before (by th...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:19 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I ignored the first because it was based on false premises.
As for evidence a flip will do nicely (what else could you use evidence in a game of hidden information?). As for inconsistencies vs strawmaning I would like you to address this first.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:05 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

bessie doesn't believe in claiming so don't hold your breath.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:11 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32762
Views: 2560803

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em It's so blindingly obvious that Vicarin is protecting bessie. Can't believe more players don't see it. Or scum might see it and not comment if Vic and bessie are just Masons. However in that case I would have expected a claim by now, although bessie is usually against such ...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:23 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

3.5 hours left from D1 but we can post/vote after deadline if mod didn't call the night and there was no hammer.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:01 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Then you're misinterpreting it (which coincidentally makes it more likely that I'm right).
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:39 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

How is that townie? Scum!mpolo doesn't want to answer publicly instead of scum!Mark, he would write it in the qt instead. Scum!mpolo doesn't want to answer instead of town!Mark because he wants TvT conflict. Plus I believe that scum!mpolo would have tried to produce something more productive given ...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:26 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Why do you have mpolo as strongly town? Answering that particular question instead of Mark plus the same read I had on Liri in Secret Santa (to note: mpolo didn't play in that one) saying he reads both you and bessie as townie, He's not saying that. He actually doesn't mention his own reads at all.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:13 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Not particularly but I don't remember any similar situation from before. I have mpolo as almost surely townie and nothing pings me about moody either.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:40 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@bessie: you are totally non-committal on moody here. He is the towniest player here. Between the two he posted twice and he has 3 players out of your bottom 4 as non-votable. Can you explain this read in some detail?
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:19 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Vicarin wrote:Oh sure, give targets for PR roles when we don't know whether there's a rolestopper in the game or not, that'll be great.
I deliberately avoided talking about what PR results will mean because that will only lead to wine. I have some ideas though. The above comment means absolutely nothing.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:11 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Vicarin wrote:You were giving the previous games as evidence in the first statement though?
No, it was BoomFrog who brought up previous games and I just replied to him because his implication run counter to actual facts. Again, it wasn't me who started off on this tangent.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:59 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Cop/Track bessie/Vicarin/SuperJedi
Shoot Mark/wam

That should clear up a lot
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:56 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

The 85% confidence in the former does not follow from the latter. I have pointed out why. I'm not sure what sort of read accuracy you think would justify a 85% confidence in finding the entire scum team, but it is significantly higher than what you've shown with your examples. To begin with, I'd ex...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:41 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Sabrar wrote:I had some good D1 reads in Chaos.
Sabrar wrote:For Chaos I'm referring to bessie and plytho
Sabrar wrote:And I never claimed that all my reads were correct in Chaos.
So after I post all of these you come back and say:
Vicarin wrote:The way that you're trying to say that a Gojoe post made during N1 after no flip from the D1 lynch doesn't count as a D1 read

Yes, this is clearly strawmaning.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:17 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

And I’m sorry Sabrar that I didn’t acknowledge it with a smiley at least, when I saw it I thought it was clever and funny and NAI because there are no jokers in this game. If you thought it was NAI at first then how did you arrive at the theory that I was signalling to be a face-card? Why would PR!...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:14 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I suspected Sabrar was a face card because of his Joker thing. I never thought about a possible connection between the Joker-face and a face-card. If I had I would not have linked to it. I will reconsider this. Literally? Yes. You can hide behind a wordplay but when you're giving out reads then any...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:05 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

That means that you think there's a less than 15% chance that any of {plytho,wam,Zen} are scum, which means they're actually pretty strong town reads, It doesn't mean that and you know it. It means they would be town by POE. It has nothing to do with how strong my read is on them. Stop calling &quo...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:59 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

If you had an 85% read accuracy for entire teams, you tell me how many you'd expect to have wrong each game, and then tell me if it matches up with your track record. You're not allowed to randomly backpedal immediately after stating a confidence level like that. Downgrade it, or back it up with so...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:50 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

And why wouldn't I include myself, Because the triplets idea is about identifying the scum-team through connections and if you were town you wouldn't include yourself. Strange logic, huh? The way that you're trying to say that a Gojoe post made during N1 after no flip from the D1 lynch doesn't coun...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:36 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I was talking about D1, remember ? And I never claimed that all my reads were correct in Chaos. What do you think this is if not strawmaning? Your triplets are ridiculous but I have neither the time nor the inclination to go through them one-by-one. Let's just say that you including yourself at all ...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:12 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Mark is lurky, but he's been a bit less lurky. Also, he's pretty much always been lurky in every game he's been in. Unless you've got any particular reason to go for him on D1, then other people are way better as lynches realistically. There's been a ton of blatantly weird scummy behaviour this gam...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:51 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Vicarin wrote:Are you saying that we're the only triplet of players connected?
Triplet? Yes. Go show me any 3 other players who have even a third of the connection of what you have.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:49 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@ Vicarin : for WoT3 you are missing this . I was actually scum-hunting, hoping to get it wrong. My bottom 3 had both scum and moody who has just a scummy meta. For Chaos I'm referring to bessie and plytho (both in Gojoe). You should not take anything in-thread as honest. And yet you continue to mis...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:44 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@Sabrar what about plytho is pinging you? Also, please thoroughly explain your Boom read. plytho: the whole line with 'Hoo boy' from here . Wording on comment wrt bessie here . Hedging his read on BoomFrog in both. The way he repeats that he doesn't agree with mpolo having a townie-slip (the first ...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:26 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

You know that a good rate of picking out 1 scum in this setup would probably be about 40% right (seeing as chance would be 27%)? And you think you'd have a 85% success rate of picking out the entire 3 person scum team? This is sooo incorrect. It ignores entirely the connections observed between mem...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:25 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

how about if you take into account your previous success rate at picking the whole scum team day one? And your previous feelings of confidence on those days before you found out the results. I caught the whole team in WoT3. I had some good D1 reads in Chaos. My past two games actually give me confi...
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:13 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

If I rely solely on my own reads then about 85%. If I take into account the opinion of others then around 30%.
by Sabrar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:56 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Mark is lurky, but he's been a bit less lurky. Also, he's pretty much always been lurky in every game he's been in. Unless you've got any particular reason to go for him on D1, then other people are way better as lynches realistically. There's been a ton of blatantly weird scummy behaviour this gam...
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:31 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

This is your case right? And your scum read of Vic and Mark is mostly based on your read of Bessie being correct? How confident are you that your bessie read is correct? So confident that it justifies not taking a serious look at any other players? That was my original case. The way how bessie reac...
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:06 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Why are you distancing from it now? How am I distancing? My theory (as previously explained) is that you felt obligated to do it but couldn't decide how to react so in the end dropped it. 2. Where did you scum me for this read? Not sure what you mean here but I immediately noticed this and it reinf...
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:26 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Oh BoomFrog, one of these days you'll learn to calibrate your model on me... Too bad it's not this one.
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:00 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:38 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Besides the lurking, don't have much information about either of them, they've been saying some pretty non-controversial stuff and staying quiet. Others managed to talk about them, you could at least say whether you agree with those players or not. Should there be a big gap? Zenii had been somewhat...

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