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by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:49 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Zenii was lurking a bit too (I do like his grilling of wam over wam's stated reason for going after BoomFrog), wam had been town reading me for a weird reason and has been making assumptions about the setup without putting much thought in (and now looks worse with that ordered list), I managed to f...
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:38 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I've already explained my position, at least briefly, on everyone. Where is your read on somitomi, besides the lurking? Where is your read on mpolo, besides the lurking? Where is your read on Zen that puts him on the top half of Town? This is not consistent with it at all. Where is your read on wam...
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:09 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32762
Views: 2560841

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em
Spoiler:
Nice, Mark is defending bessie super-hard. If they are not Masons then I really got the whole team and will be nk-d as usual.
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:07 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@Vicarin: do you have an ordered town-to-scum list? Or actually just a complete read-list? And why not?

@Mark: it was not my analysis. It was Vicarin's tangent that I said multiple times was irrelevant.
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:11 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Request mod-prod on mpolo
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:37 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I see there was an interesting amount of content posted in the confirmation phase. :P bessie's confirmation post analysis: For example me finding bessie scummy for calling my content 'light' when she herself notes that more than half of the players have little content is not a meta-read, I would fi...
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:13 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I have a town-lean on plytho currently based on group-dynamics. I'll revisit this once we have some flips because some of his content is pinging me.
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:00 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

wam wrote:Sabrar made several comments early days that came across as coming from a VT mindset sabrar.
Not to confirm or deny anything but in the future you should keep all speculations about who is VT to yourself. You know, not doing scum's work. Feel free to ignore if you're actually scum.
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:51 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I have issues reading wam because of WoT3. This pinged me as overdefensive because Vicarin's question wasn't really addressed to him. I can see why people find him scummy though I believe the logic is not that strong. I don't want to put words in his mouth so if you really want I'll explain this if ...
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:58 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32762
Views: 2560841

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em
Spoiler:
Let's see if soft-claiming Vig gets me killed. :D
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:56 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Yes, it would be way easier if people just accepted my math to be correct... :P
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:48 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@Vicarin: if we have 0 Vig-s in the game than the actual number doesn't matter at all. Therefore I don't have to look at my card to calculate odds because I'm already assuming that we have at least 1.
by Sabrar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:17 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

So you suspect there are approximately 1 1/7 vigilantes? Don't know, haven't calculated that part because that's not how the math works. And while you're here why not answer the many questions people have asked you? Actually, yeah, how did you come to that conclusion exactly Sabrar? I can't see how...
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:09 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Also, any conclusions from your psychoanalysis of my disposition towards mistakes? No. It felt like it's somewhat more likely coming from scum but I'm pretty sure you're town, so... @Sabrar: btw, why would wam's comment be equally suspicious to superjedi's? Both were equally unnecessary. I thought ...
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:28 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

BoomFrog wrote:B) better ratio of town to scum controlled kills.
I like consensus town-controlled kills more. 2 misfires takes away a lynch, 1 is just perfect.
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:02 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Further fun math because I was bored. If a Vig decides to shoot N1 s/he should only do so if they roll an 87 or less on a D100. This gives the closest result of the expected value of the number of Vig-kills being equal to 1.
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:35 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32762
Views: 2560841

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em
Spoiler:
So I would not be totally surprised if Vicarin and bessie would claim Masons but it would be unfair how often bessie gets that role and I don't... :(
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:58 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@Zen: same question to you. Do you have any issues with wam's content outside of how he reacted to BoomFrog vs SuperJedi?
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:53 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

wam wrote:Because his initial posts came off as distancing.
So you actually don't have any issues with his content outside of that?
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:23 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

For example me finding bessie scummy for calling my content 'light' when she herself notes that more than half of the players have little content is not a meta-read, I would find that scummy in anyone else as well.
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:21 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

You don't for one second think that there is a definition on which we can both agree and that wouldn't lead to further arguing, right? Anyway I generally call it a meta-read if it's dependent on the actual player, i.e. if presented with the same content/circumstances from another player my conclusio...
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:11 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

If you continue to strawman, I'll stop because it's pointless. For the fourth time, my read was due to a specific issue that has no precedent therefore analyzing past games is irrelevant.
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:07 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Vicarin wrote:I can't help but think you're using a different definition of meta read to me and bessie...
I wasn't talking about you at all. Why include yourself?
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:40 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

If you say "meta read, bessie's scum", then you'd better be the one providing the numbers. ... So, would you say that these numbers strongly support the "no confirmation post analysis -> bessie is scum" meta read that you're presenting as voteworthy? You're still not reading wha...
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:10 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@SuperJedi: some reasons for these would be welcome. If you have time issues (though I don't think this is the case), just focus on plytho. Why is his 'slight scum-lean' worthy of a vote instead of Zen or myself?
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:49 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I'd like to see how you divide those games into those 4 categories after removing the ones where the analysis wasn't relevant then, if you take so much issue with how I did. First point of business: as I've already explained my issue with bessie not doing the analysis was not at all math-related (c...
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:10 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@wam: why did you suspect scum!BF in the first place (regardless of his potential link to SuperJedi)?
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:24 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Vicarin wrote:Why'd you ask me about my scum reads?
Because you were defending bessie with faulty math. There is no way you are left with 11 relevant games after you remove those where conf-post analysis had no role to play.
Also why shouldn't I ask you about your scum-reads? Did you not want to share them?
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:59 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Unvote
Vote: bessie


Sheep me for an easy win.
by Sabrar
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:37 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I have a vague feeling that bessie, Mark and Vicarin are co-aligned.
by Sabrar
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:02 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32762
Views: 2560841

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em Vicarin's numbers here are way off, he is still not discarding the irrelevant games. Which probably means that if bessie is Town then he is as well and maybe it means that he might be defending his scum-buddy if bessie is indeed Mafia. Also same issue with Mark here . So bessie'...
by Sabrar
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:57 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@Vicarin: who are your scum-reads?
by Sabrar
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:58 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Weekends usually count as half so mod-prod is not yet due (though I would fully agree with it).
by Sabrar
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:18 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@BoomFrog: where do you draw the line about mistakes being AI? Do you think Mark's use of the word quality instead of quantity here is relevant? Why or why not?
by Sabrar
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:24 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

But if you're really curious my scum-lean comes from: Intentional? Nope, was in the process of writing it out when I interrupted myself with something else and after I came back to this I forgot I started to put this down (and somehow managed to skip it during preview as well). But here is what I e...
by Sabrar
Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:00 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@ bessie : I feel you misrepresent a couple things. - You note for Chaos that there was very little to analyze however you do not do the same for Dark Tower, Diablo, NNY, Alien Warfare. This way the number is padded towards not doing it being normal. - As you yourself mention you have only started d...
by Sabrar
Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:41 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Plus a quick deluge in D1 that feels way faster than other games. Alien Warfare produced 2 more pages at the beginning of D1 in the same amount of time so I'm hoping this won't be a problem for you. Why are you concerned about the randomness? At least you know what type of roles to expect, unlike i...
by Sabrar
Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:27 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

And why would that be? Do you have issues with the setup? What makes this game different than your previous ones?
by Sabrar
Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:18 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Do you know if that's happened before? I'm not sure when she started doing it and I'm having trouble finding the first instance when she argued that analyzing pre-game content would be valid. I know I reminded her to do this in Shakespeare III but I don't think it was an integral part of D1!bessie ...
by Sabrar
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:04 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)
Replies: 798
Views: 43063

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

bessie wrote:I don’t suppose you’d like to share this meta read?
You didn't make a confirmation-post analysis. Especially after I broke my tradition of doing only blank confirms.

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