How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on it

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How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on it

5 Years
0
No votes
25 Years
0
No votes
50 Years
0
No votes
100 Years
2
3%
200 Years
6
10%
300 Years
4
6%
400 Years
3
5%
500 Years
6
10%
1,000 Years
7
11%
2,500 Years
7
11%
5,000 Years
1
2%
10,000 Years
1
2%
25,000 years
0
No votes
50,000 years
1
2%
100,000 years
0
No votes
250,000 years
0
No votes
500,000 years
0
No votes
1,000,000 years
0
No votes
Over 1,000,000 years
0
No votes
Never
11
18%
Once I crawl through the mantle of this planet, where I've been trapped for thousands of years, there will be no humans left alive on Earth, so 20-30 years, and then the population of the ISS will exceed the population of Earth before they just starve to death
13
21%
 
Total votes: 62

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Thesh
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How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on it

Postby Thesh » Mon Feb 02, 2015 10:28 am UTC

For the sake of the poll, "On Earth" = "within Earth's atmosphere." Pick the smallest number that is larger than your exact guess.
Last edited by Thesh on Mon Feb 02, 2015 6:28 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Feb 02, 2015 6:27 pm UTC

Goddammit, missed the last option before clicking.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Thesh » Mon Feb 02, 2015 6:28 pm UTC

Re-voting enabled.
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Feb 02, 2015 6:49 pm UTC

Thanks! Because obviously, this isn't going to happen within fifty years unless it has some, ahem, help.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Mokele » Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:55 pm UTC

The last option's reference to the mantle is clearly wrong, and should be the sunken city of Ry'leh.

Ia Ia Cthulhu ftagn!
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Izawwlgood » Tue Feb 03, 2015 4:40 pm UTC

All praise Lavos!
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby brenok » Tue Feb 03, 2015 4:49 pm UTC

Wake up Sheeple!

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby setzer777 » Tue Feb 03, 2015 7:01 pm UTC

I think we'll go extinct before we ever set up permanent off-world settlements.
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby tms » Wed Feb 04, 2015 8:21 pm UTC

Perhaps in my lifetime this question will become considerably more serious. But spurious is fine!

I came up with three categories of settlements: Moon, Mars, free artificials. 83 generations would end up with 10^10 that I suppose would be more than on Earth, if it remains a generally desirable habitat. The self-contained things were negligible with a few hundred thousand and Mars being similar to Earth at almost 9 billion, having crept past the well developed Moon at some point.
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Yablo » Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:47 am UTC

Mokele wrote:The last option's reference to the mantle is clearly wrong, and should be the sunken city of Ry'leh.

Ia Ia Cthulhu ftagn!

Indeed!

A quote from (most likely) the next session of my Delta Green game*:
"Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyehhgand gah'ln fhtagn. Yr et Dho-Hna Ephrai Nmagl'n nagoghnath, Iä! Shub-Niggura'pwai Feyadia gnl!"

Also, I'm thinking 300 years if a fair estimate.

*See the link in my signature for details
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Please feel free to ask questions or leave comments.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby mathmannix » Fri Feb 06, 2015 3:27 pm UTC

I don't know about the works of Lovecraft, but as for me and my house... Christian eschatology pretty much precludes the possibility of permanent settlements off-earth.
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby PeteP » Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:43 pm UTC

I doubt it will take very long to make it compatible once there are permanent settlements off-earth.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby FierceContinent » Sat Feb 07, 2015 5:57 pm UTC

setzer777 wrote:I think we'll go extinct before we ever set up permanent off-world settlements.


How???
The greatest Science Hero is almost certainly Norman Borlaug. His selectively bred crops have saved many, many people from starvation.
Just to be clear, the number of lives Norman Borlaug is credited with saving is in the BILLIONS.
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ScienceHero

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby PeteP » Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:14 pm UTC

FierceContinent wrote:
setzer777 wrote:I think we'll go extinct before we ever set up permanent off-world settlements.


How???

Clearly, he was hinting at his plans to start all the nukes and destroy humanity. But don't tell him we know his plans, we replaced all the nukes with fireworks and want to jump out and yell surprise after he presses the button.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Izawwlgood » Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:35 pm UTC

mathmannix wrote:I don't know about the works of Lovecraft, but as for me and my house... Christian eschatology pretty much precludes the possibility of permanent settlements off-earth.
It does? You think the second coming of Christ, the divine return of the Son of God himself, is limited to Earth?

Doesn't that seem... I dunno, selling it short? Like, everyone will be judged, unless you're in LEO?
... with gigantic melancholies and gigantic mirth, to tread the jeweled thrones of the Earth under his sandalled feet.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Oraiste » Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:42 pm UTC

I like the idea that Christ is touring planets, like a rock star. If you miss him on Earth, meh, try Kepler-20f, he'll be there next week.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Izawwlgood » Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:45 pm UTC

... with gigantic melancholies and gigantic mirth, to tread the jeweled thrones of the Earth under his sandalled feet.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby FierceContinent » Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:19 pm UTC

PeteP wrote:
FierceContinent wrote:
setzer777 wrote:I think we'll go extinct before we ever set up permanent off-world settlements.


How???

Clearly, he was hinting at his plans to start all the nukes and destroy humanity. But don't tell him we know his plans, we replaced all the nukes with fireworks and want to jump out and yell surprise after he presses the button.

Hmmm. Nukes would kill a lot of people, not *everyone*. And apparently they're now saying a nuclear winter would last about a week.
The greatest Science Hero is almost certainly Norman Borlaug. His selectively bred crops have saved many, many people from starvation.
Just to be clear, the number of lives Norman Borlaug is credited with saving is in the BILLIONS.
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ScienceHero

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Jorpho » Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:07 am UTC

FierceContinent wrote:
setzer777 wrote:I think we'll go extinct before we ever set up permanent off-world settlements.
How???
If not the nukes, then some flavor of climate change, I suppose. Something might survive in one form or another, but it might not be fair to call it "human".

Oraiste

Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Oraiste » Sun Feb 08, 2015 9:02 am UTC

I just think statistics will catch up and something will wipe us out before we've found or created a sufficient location for a permanent colony capable of housing millions. Or that if the off-world population ever does exceed the Earth population, it will be because Earth's been decimated by some disaster or another, rather than because the colony is a success.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby FierceContinent » Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:03 pm UTC

Jorpho wrote:
FierceContinent wrote:
setzer777 wrote:I think we'll go extinct before we ever set up permanent off-world settlements.
How???
If not the nukes, then some flavor of climate change, I suppose. Something might survive in one form or another, but it might not be fair to call it "human".

There has been a *little* bit of climate change before in the past, here and there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interglacial http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devonian
The greatest Science Hero is almost certainly Norman Borlaug. His selectively bred crops have saved many, many people from starvation.
Just to be clear, the number of lives Norman Borlaug is credited with saving is in the BILLIONS.
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ScienceHero

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby setzer777 » Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:33 pm UTC

FierceContinent wrote:
setzer777 wrote:I think we'll go extinct before we ever set up permanent off-world settlements.


How???


Various possible ways - plague, war, disease, resource depletion.

Not saying I think one specific cataclysm will destroy us, but that those plus the limits physics set on us will likely lead to us dying out before we build up the massive infrastructure to settle off world (assuming it's even feasible to ever do so with this planet's resources).

There's no guarantee that the nature of the universe won't just put up a wall to our continued survival.
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Jorpho » Mon Feb 09, 2015 4:29 am UTC

FierceContinent wrote:There has been a *little* bit of climate change before in the past, here and there.
Yes? And in some cases it has done a very good job of wiping out the dominant life on the planet.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby FierceContinent » Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:05 pm UTC

Jorpho wrote:
FierceContinent wrote:There has been a *little* bit of climate change before in the past, here and there.
Yes? And in some cases it has done a very good job of wiping out the dominant life on the planet.

Actually we survived the ice ages and we weren't around for the Devonian.

Contrariwise I do think technological development is going to slow down. There are only so many wonders to discover and they keep getting harder and harder to uncover.
The greatest Science Hero is almost certainly Norman Borlaug. His selectively bred crops have saved many, many people from starvation.
Just to be clear, the number of lives Norman Borlaug is credited with saving is in the BILLIONS.
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ScienceHero

Oraiste

Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Oraiste » Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:47 pm UTC

FierceContinent wrote:Contrariwise I do think technological development is going to slow down. There are only so many wonders to discover and they keep getting harder and harder to uncover.

I was going to reply to this by pointing out that at start of the 20th century, Charles H. Duell said "everything that can be invented has been invented", but his Wikipedia page tells me that's a urban legend. Damnit.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby setzer777 » Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:52 pm UTC

Another possibility is that we burn through the materials that would be needed for off-world colonization and off-world resource harvesting, at which point it doesn't matter how long our species lasts - there simply won't be the necessary tools for the job.
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Diemo » Mon Feb 09, 2015 3:20 pm UTC

Well, it is possible to create the materials (and once you get to the asteroid belts and Jupiter, you should have all the materials that you ever need), it would just be very very very expensive.
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby mathmannix » Mon Feb 09, 2015 3:45 pm UTC

Izawwlgood wrote:
mathmannix wrote:I don't know about the works of Lovecraft, but as for me and my house... Christian eschatology pretty much precludes the possibility of permanent settlements off-earth.
It does? You think the second coming of Christ, the divine return of the Son of God himself, is limited to Earth?

Doesn't that seem... I dunno, selling it short? Like, everyone will be judged, unless you're in LEO?

Not at all, I guess I just think that if humanity were well established in at least several different solar systems, it wouldn't be possible for it to all end in one big battle. But maybe I'm wrong, and the alternative is some form of Hactar's Supernova Bomb that destroys all stars in the galaxy simultaneously. (Or possibly the heat death of the universe, but that seems way too far away to be the explanation.)
I hear velociraptor tastes like chicken.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby setzer777 » Mon Feb 09, 2015 4:20 pm UTC

mathmannix wrote:
Izawwlgood wrote:
mathmannix wrote:I don't know about the works of Lovecraft, but as for me and my house... Christian eschatology pretty much precludes the possibility of permanent settlements off-earth.
It does? You think the second coming of Christ, the divine return of the Son of God himself, is limited to Earth?

Doesn't that seem... I dunno, selling it short? Like, everyone will be judged, unless you're in LEO?

Not at all, I guess I just think that if humanity were well established in at least several different solar systems, it wouldn't be possible for it to all end in one big battle. But maybe I'm wrong, and the alternative is some form of Hactar's Supernova Bomb that destroys all stars in the galaxy simultaneously. (Or possibly the heat death of the universe, but that seems way too far away to be the explanation.)


Isn't the battle more of a formality anyway? Going by Christian tradition it seems like the principles involved would all be intelligent and informed enough to know that there's no other outcome than the literally omnipotent god winning. Seems more like a moral protest by the dragon, beast, and co. than a proper battle.
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby PeteP » Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:55 pm UTC

setzer777 wrote:Another possibility is that we burn through the materials that would be needed for off-world colonization and off-world resource harvesting, at which point it doesn't matter how long our species lasts - there simply won't be the necessary tools for the job.

What kind of materials do you mean specifically?

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby setzer777 » Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:07 am UTC

PeteP wrote:
setzer777 wrote:Another possibility is that we burn through the materials that would be needed for off-world colonization and off-world resource harvesting, at which point it doesn't matter how long our species lasts - there simply won't be the necessary tools for the job.

What kind of materials do you mean specifically?


I was mostly thinking of fossil fuels needed to have enough craft break orbit.
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Thesh » Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:12 am UTC

Not sure we need fossil fuels for that. Most rocket fuels are, as far as I understand, either liquid oxygen/hydrogen, or solid fuel chemicals based on things like ammonium nitrate.
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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Jorpho » Tue Feb 10, 2015 3:14 pm UTC

While hydrogen is abundant in the universe, a lot of hydrogen used these days is actually derived from fossil fuels directly, or so I understand. I reckon solid fuel stuff is at least produced using energy from fossil fuels. But I guess fossil fuels aren't strictly necessary in either case, even though they are extremely convenient.

Of course, if we do run low on fossil fuels, we might have more in a few million years – but humanity as we know it may not endure that long.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Sean Quixote » Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:51 pm UTC

Clearly, the answer is magnets.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby Aveline » Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:33 am UTC

Magnets? Why? I don't understand.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of Earth than on

Postby mathmannix » Wed Feb 18, 2015 7:33 pm UTC

Do you mean because of the wacky wrist magnets that people claim make their lives better and/or longer?
I hear velociraptor tastes like chicken.

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Re: How long until more humans live outside of thith Bromeli

Postby teddy_b » Wed Apr 08, 2015 4:13 pm UTC

And do the magnets work while on the wrists? LOL it's impossible


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