Will robots replace programmers?

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Quantum_Robin
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Will robots replace programmers?

Postby Quantum_Robin » Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:52 pm UTC

Will robots replace programmers?

If yes, why robots will replace programmers?

If yes, when will programmers get replaced by robots?

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SecondTalon
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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby SecondTalon » Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:13 am UTC

No.

By the time Robots replace programmers, we won’t consider them robots anymore.
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Thesh
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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby Thesh » Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:18 am UTC

I figure transhumans will always be able to stay ahead of the curve.
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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby speising » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:39 am UTC

why should anyone build a robot to replace programmers? so they can handle mouse and keyboard?

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Jplus
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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby Jplus » Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:04 pm UTC

Quantum_Robin wrote:Will robots replace programmers?

I find this question strange. If robots "replace" programmers, than surely those robots are programmers?

I'll take the liberty to interpret your question as "will robots replace humans?". I think that if the human collective is smart enough to invent strong AI (I'm not sure we are, although I believe strong AI should be possible in principle), then robots will, eventually, replace humans.

Quantum_Robin wrote:If yes, why robots will replace programmers humans?

Assuming, for the sake of argument, that strong AI is going to be invented: I believe that AI can only be strong AI if it is a partner rather than a tool. Strong AI robots might not be treated as full equals to humans when initially released into the world, but if they're treated at least somewhat as partners rather than as tools, I think they'll eventually get the same rights as humans. At some point, robots will have the same rights as humans and also be clearly superior to humans in some important ways while not being too inferior in other important ways. Once this situation has existed for a while, the society at large will gradually start to put more trust in robots than in humans. In the long run, robots will be keeping humans as pets.

Quantum_Robin wrote:If yes, when will programmers humans get replaced by robots?

This depends on two unknown delays in series:
  1. The delay until strong AI is invented. Not much progress has been made since Alan Turing and the cognitive revolution, so I don't expect this to happen soon.
  2. The societal process I described above. I can't really predict this, but I expect it to be slow.

SecondTalon wrote:By the time Robots replace programmers, we won’t consider them robots anymore.

I like this comment, because it seems to suggest that by the time robots become programmers, we'll consider them partners rather than tools.

Thesh wrote:I figure transhumans will always be able to stay ahead of the curve.

The "humans will merge with robots" school of thought. I don't find the idea very convincing, but I can't refute it.

speising wrote:why should anyone build a robot to replace programmers? so they can handle mouse and keyboard?

By itself, it doesn't sound terribly useful, does it? Only if the robots can do much more than just programming, it starts to get interesting.
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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby Katsuray » Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:40 pm UTC

As programming environments become more powerful, the task of programming may merge with the task of instruction.

If that were to occur, then neither people nor robots would have been replaced; the job itself would have become obsolete.

Extending the spirit of the question past that point, I wonder which of the two groups issue more instruction. By some definitions, computers already dictate their own instructions well beyond the quantity that human's might be able to input. (With the obvious fault that an arithmetic instruction doesn't qualitatively feel equivalent to problem synthesis/exploration.)

So in a meager sense, the question of "when" would be answered with "the past".

Granted, this is sans typing android.

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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby ucim » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:03 am UTC

Jplus wrote:In the long run, robots will be keeping humans as pets.
If we're lucky.

Jplus wrote:I don't expect [the invention of strong AI] to happen soon.
It may not be soon, but it will be sudden. We won't see it coming.

Jplus wrote:The "humans will merge with robots" school of thought. I don't find the idea very convincing, but I can't refute it.
Why would a robot want to merge with a human?

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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby Pfhorrest » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:20 am UTC

why would a robot want anything? because we built it that way.
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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby Jplus » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:46 am UTC

Katsuray wrote:As programming environments become more powerful, the task of programming may merge with the task of instruction.

If that were to occur, then neither people nor robots would have been replaced; the job itself would have become obsolete.

Interesting perspective.

ucim wrote:
Jplus wrote:In the long run, robots will be keeping humans as pets.
If we're lucky.

Granted.

ucim wrote:
Jplus wrote:I don't expect [the invention of strong AI] to happen soon.
It may not be soon, but it will be sudden. We won't see it coming.

Do you mean the "superintelligence" thought experiment, where a computer is given the instruction (and is somehow made able to) keep making itself smarter and smarter in order to solve some arbitrary problem, leading to an exponential "explosion" of intelligence? Superintelligence is quite different and independent from strong AI. You can have either without the other (philosophically, I mean). Personally, I also find the superintelligence scenario uncompelling and even if it were possible, I don't think it could contribute to the invention of strong AI at all. The other way round, maybe.

I already took this thread a little bit on a tangent by throwing strong AI and the replacement of humans into the mix, so I'm wary of also discussing superintelligence. If you'd like to discuss it anyway, I suggest we take it to another thread.

ucim wrote:
Jplus wrote:The "humans will merge with robots" school of thought. I don't find the idea very convincing, but I can't refute it.
Why would a robot want to merge with a human?

I think the idea behind this school of thought is that humans decide to merge with robots before they (the robots, or computers in general) become autonomous enough to have an opinion about it. Or the humans just make their own cyborg bodyparts without involving robots that don't want to merge. Or they force the robots to merge before the robots become strong enough to resist. This is all future-guessing, anyway.

Pfhorrest wrote:why would a robot want anything? because we built it that way.

Well, if we are talking partner-like strong AI robots, as I proposed, then they'll have a will of their own. Because we made them so.
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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby ucim » Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:06 am UTC

Jplus wrote:[Artificial s]uperintelligence is quite different and independent from strong AI.
In what (useful) way are they different?
Jplus wrote:...they'll have a will of their own. Because we made them so.
Eh... more like because we made it possible. If individual AIs compete with each other (which they will), then I can't see how will doesn't emerge.

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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby K.Sharon » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:05 am UTC

If robots replace programmers still they need programmer for themselves, so into my opinion they can't replace fully. If the pattern becomes advanced then their is the possibilities of advance jobs for programmers.
in last AI can not be as smart as human programmers to be successful. AI can work on pre set paths, they can't think alike a human programmer.

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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby Thesh » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:13 am UTC

Genetic programming allows humans to make programs that both work and are unintelligible to the programmer. On top of that, different robots can have different specializations and collectively write a program that no one of them fully understand.

Jplus wrote:I think the idea behind this school of thought is that humans decide to merge with robots before they (the robots, or computers in general) become autonomous enough to have an opinion about it. Or the humans just make their own cyborg bodyparts without involving robots that don't want to merge. Or they force the robots to merge before the robots become strong enough to resist. This is all future-guessing, anyway.


The next big step is neural interfaces, which is already in the experimental phase. Combine that with smartphones, and you can already outperform a robot on any mental task. Collective consciousness is only 25 years away.
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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby SecondTalon » Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:03 pm UTC

K.Sharon wrote:If robots replace programmers still they need programmer for themselves, so into my opinion they can't replace fully. If the pattern becomes advanced then their is the possibilities of advance jobs for programmers.
in last AI can not be as smart as human programmers to be successful. AI can work on pre set paths, they can't think alike a human programmer.

I dunno, you're doing alright.

(Seriously, though - ESL, I assume?)
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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby Soupspoon » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:23 am UTC

SecondTalon wrote:
K.Sharon wrote:If robots replace programmers still they need programmer for themselves, so into my opinion they can't replace fully. If the pattern becomes advanced then their is the possibilities of advance jobs for programmers.
in last AI can not be as smart as human programmers to be successful. AI can work on pre set paths, they can't think alike a human programmer.

I dunno, you're doing alright.

(Seriously, though - ESL, I assume?)

I do highly suspect Markov Chaining. (See the only other post, at this time. But this ones does work better.) My apologies for the potential slur if not.

And I think there's a confusion between "Robots" (electromechanical machine with arbitrary application depending upon sensory feedbacks and stored instructions of possibly non-linear nature) and the more recent colloquial usage of "'Bots" (code to process input/output, requiring no physical manifestation).

I can make (or allow to happen) a robot arm tap a keyboard, and if I do it skilllfully/artfully/luckily enough it might well activate a new program or modify its own script as either something like a Quine or Reflectively self-modifying system. Perhaps with thought towards a guiding genetic-algorithm, containment/testing/breeding system an entirely human-free end-result can be derived by test-and-reset mechanism, or somethingbmore. But the robot arm part of the process seems unnecessary (whether own-system modification or partner-system separation, the 'physical firewall' aspect of the experiment is superfluous and less efficient than other solutions such as mutual socket-connections between systems or just making/using code that acts fully within the electronic circuits alone.

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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby garen123 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:35 am UTC

Nope, never

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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby SuicideJunkie » Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:16 pm UTC

Programmers are translators between requirements and tools.

Compilers have already replaced programmers.
The new programmers are the old team lead/architects.

With each layer that gets automated out from the bottom, there is another layer of less-clueful being added on top to generate even more vague requirements.
After a few more cycles of this, "programmers" will be the ones who translate the desires of cats into management-buzzwords, which will then be funneled into the team of robots to turn into source code.

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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby Pfhorrest » Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:28 am UTC

Until the robots get smart enough to just figure out what the cats (and people) want before they know they want it, and preemptively program whatever that is.
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HardDust
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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby HardDust » Wed May 15, 2019 10:46 am UTC

I guess robots will never replace programmers, I mean fully. I'm sure programmers jobs are probably the last ones that will be automated and frankly, nobody knows when it will happen.

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Will robots replace programmers

Postby Godhet » Fri May 31, 2019 2:59 am UTC

The recent BBC4 drama series Humans might be something to look into if you are interested in this idea. The people feel threatened that the androids will take their jobs, and thats a major subtext in the show.

As far as your question, no. I cant imagine one.

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Liam1Black
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Re: Will robots replace programmers?

Postby Liam1Black » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:25 am UTC

In the future, the line between man and machine will be erased. Now we need programmers due to the fact that the artificial intelligence is not sufficiently developed to solve our problems. When machines learn to solve all the tasks we need most problems will not be if it is not used to the detriment of others.


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