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Global Warming

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:28 pm UTC
by Fuolornis Fire Dragon
I'm in the middle of an emailed discussion with several other people about global warming. Can you all post your positions and links to any scientific data that back them up?

As a side question, is the issue a controversy worldwide, or just in America?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:04 pm UTC
by mwace
I voted "Whats global warming?".

I know perfectly well much of the popular opinions about global warming. Greenhouse gases, such as CO2 or CH4 (Methane), are suspected to be responsible for global warming. A lot of people make the jump from increased CO2 levels and increascing world temprate having a positive relationship to a real-life cause-and-effect relationship. It hasn't been scientificly proven that greenhouse gasses are responsible for global warming - nobody's ever verified this for a fact, its only suspected.

There are also a great deal of other variables that could be responsible for the increased worldwide temprature. We believe our earth's core to have a solid nickel/copper core (or something like that), but we havn't directly observed this and theres a chance it could be a natural nuclear reaction that keeps our planet hot - which is a lot less stable then a solid super-hot core, and any natrual changes would have huge consiquences on the surface. To the same effect, we don't know exactly how the sun's energy is produced and any natural change in the sun's luminesance could be causing our climate change - in fact, some researchers have noted a similear climate change taking place on Mars, and suspect changes in solar activity as the common cause for the two planet's climate change. Furthermore, when we move away from the sun the sunlight that hits earth changes exponentially; in this way any changes in earths orbit would cause significent changes in global temprature. And I'm sure there could be hundreds of other possibilities.

I feel we need to do more hard research and observation, we need to start making scientific conclusions and we need to do less limp-brained postulating.

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:34 pm UTC
by Fluff
mwace wrote:
I feel we need to do more hard research and observation, we need to start making scientific conclusions and we need to do less limp-brained postulating.


Could you please cite your references and credentials for making such a statement, or were you just postulating?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:43 pm UTC
by Toeofdoom
Dude... watch the movie "An Inconvenient truth".

Okay?
Watch it.
My grandad was convinced by it. for however long he knew about it, he insisted it didnt exist to everyone who brought up the subject, saying it was a load of BS. Eventually my uncle got annoyed and got him to watch it, and he kinda changed his mind.

The website related to the movie is http://www.climatecrisis.net/

Global warming exists, and we gotta do something about it. >.>

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:54 pm UTC
by mwace
Fluff, I think I'm rather well qualified to voice my feeling :)

Toeofdoom wrote:Dude... watch the movie "An Inconvenient truth".


Check out the chart about halfway down this page:
http://www.venganza.org/about/open-letter/

It describes a negative relationship between global temprature and number of pirates. Anyone in their right mind would recognize it as scientific nonsense if somebody were to say the decline of pirates was the cause of global warming.I challenge the greenhouse gas hypothosis on the same grounds.

This isn't to say we should ignore CO2 outputs; I personally think they contribute to the global temprature - but I think there are a lot of other much larger forces at work here that could easily be responsible for the vast majority of the climate change that's been happening..

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:55 pm UTC
by Belial
"Gee. That could be a car speeding toward me, or it could be some kind of illusion. I need more data. I will make no move to get out of the road until all the proper studies have been performed."

"Gee, this sign says that if I keep pressing this button it'll eventually explode and kill me. I'm skeptical. I will initiate a study into the explosive properties of this button.

Until the results come back, though, I'm'a keep pressing the button...."

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:29 pm UTC
by zvezdogled
mwace wrote:Fluff, I think I'm rather well qualified to voice my feeling :)

Toeofdoom wrote:Dude... watch the movie "An Inconvenient truth".


Check out the chart about halfway down this page:
http://www.venganza.org/about/open-letter/

It describes a negative relationship between global temprature and number of pirates. Anyone in their right mind would recognize it as scientific nonsense if somebody were to say the decline of pirates was the cause of global warming.I challenge the greenhouse gas hypothosis on the same grounds.

This isn't to say we should ignore CO2 outputs; I personally think they contribute to the global temprature - but I think there are a lot of other much larger forces at work here that could easily be responsible for the vast majority of the climate change that's been happening..


Watch the movie. It is as simple as that.
You will not sustain any damage by doing so - hopefully.

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:33 pm UTC
by Fluff
mwace wrote:Fluff, I think I'm rather well qualified to voice my feeling :)



What you 'feel' is completely irrelevant.


Toeofdoom wrote:Dude... watch the movie "An Inconvenient truth".


Check out the chart about halfway down this page:
http://www.venganza.org/about/open-letter/

It describes a negative relationship between global temprature and number of pirates.



I really hope you're joking.

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:48 pm UTC
by TheTankengine
I am in love with Fluff.

Your unwavering scientific, logical approach is truly inspiring!

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:49 pm UTC
by Toeofdoom
zvezdogled wrote:
mwace wrote:Fluff, I think I'm rather well qualified to voice my feeling :)

Toeofdoom wrote:Dude... watch the movie "An Inconvenient truth".


Check out the chart about halfway down this page:
http://www.venganza.org/about/open-letter/

It describes a negative relationship between global temprature and number of pirates. Anyone in their right mind would recognize it as scientific nonsense if somebody were to say the decline of pirates was the cause of global warming.I challenge the greenhouse gas hypothosis on the same grounds.

This isn't to say we should ignore CO2 outputs; I personally think they contribute to the global temprature - but I think there are a lot of other much larger forces at work here that could easily be responsible for the vast majority of the climate change that's been happening..


Watch the movie. It is as simple as that.
You will not sustain any damage by doing so - hopefully.


We are not responsible for any injuries you may sustain from beatings earned by yelling "This is a load of shit" in the cinema. Thank you. :?

I also really hope you are joking mwace. But if not, I'm sure you would make a great activist for say, petroleum companies or politicians who wish to ignore global warming, something along the lines of the guy in "Thank you for smoking"

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:05 am UTC
by zvezdogled
mwace wrote:I voted "Whats global warming?".

I know perfectly well much of the popular opinions about global warming. Greenhouse gases, such as CO2 or CH4 (Methane), are suspected to be responsible for global warming. A lot of people make the jump from increased CO2 levels and increascing world temprate having a positive relationship to a real-life cause-and-effect relationship. It hasn't been scientificly proven that greenhouse gasses are responsible for global warming - nobody's ever verified this for a fact, its only suspected.

There are also a great deal of other variables that could be responsible for the increased worldwide temprature. We believe our earth's core to have a solid nickel/copper core (or something like that), but we havn't directly observed this and theres a chance it could be a natural nuclear reaction that keeps our planet hot - which is a lot less stable then a solid super-hot core, and any natrual changes would have huge consiquences on the surface. To the same effect, we don't know exactly how the sun's energy is produced and any natural change in the sun's luminesance could be causing our climate change - in fact, some researchers have noted a similear climate change taking place on Mars, and suspect changes in solar activity as the common cause for the two planet's climate change. Furthermore, when we move away from the sun the sunlight that hits earth changes exponentially; in this way any changes in earths orbit would cause significent changes in global temprature. And I'm sure there could be hundreds of other possibilities.

I feel we need to do more hard research and observation, we need to start making scientific conclusions and we need to do less limp-brained postulating.


please cite your references. Which scientists names and working place and articles from where you got your theories.
I am very interested in such things because i study astro-geophysics...
And i can assure you that the sun si observed nonstop 24/7 we measure everything that comes from it. And at the moment it is shining exactly how it should! for more info about suns activity http://spaceweather.com/ and http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/

ok earths core. not just core but whole earth is full of radioactive material, that constantly decays and by that the Earth is being heated quite well heated. For example this process enables Jupiter to emit more energy that he gets from the sun. But that process is very stable and is getting weaker with time.

And yes watch the movie. Things tend to get clearer.

Re: Global Warming

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:02 am UTC
by fletch44
Fuolornis Fire Dragon wrote:As a side question, is the issue a controversy worldwide, or just in America?


Only in America as far as we can tell.

The rest of the world has known about it and has been taking action for the last 20 years.

That is, apart from Australia, whose current prime minister deperately wants to be America's best friend, and as such joined the USA in not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, and also passed up the opportunity to invest a lot of money in green tech that would have hugely helped the economy in the future. Silly man.

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:41 am UTC
by Toeofdoom
That is, apart from Australia, whose current prime minister deperately wants to be America's best friend, and as such joined the USA in not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, and also passed up the opportunity to invest a lot of money in green tech that would have hugely helped the economy in the future. Silly man.
:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

Must... kill... john howard... evil bastard...

gaaaaaah.

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 2:00 am UTC
by Hawknc
Voted for killing John Howard...er, I mean, that we're contributing to climate change. I don't think we're the sole contributors to killing the planet and causing the Statue of Liberty to be covered in ice a la Day After Tomorrow, but we're not helping, and I don't think our contribution is statistically insignificant based on the research I've read. Basically we could be doing a lot more to mitigate our impact on the environment than we are.

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 2:17 am UTC
by Toeofdoom
My friend made a nice flash movie on the john howard is evil subject back in 2004. Im not great at drawing in flash so my one wasnt great, i never uploaded it (and it had a different subject)

http://www.stickboarder.uni.cc/movies/o ... /jimmy.dsa thats the url, its pretty cool really. The sites been dead for atleast a year though.

Still... we do really need to fix the planet :?

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 2:50 am UTC
by khayber
OK, to those here who think global warming is real and has human causes: what do you think we must do about it? Seriously. I've heard some pretty dangerous ideas suggested.

To those who have watched An Inconvenient Truth: does it get better after the 1st 20 minutes? Because I couldn't stand it any more than that. I want to give it a fair viewing and plan to try again, but I felt his presentation was inflammatory and misleading.
Example 1: The initial graph he shows of CO2 measurements increasing had no scale but was increasing at "an alarming rate" (45 degree angle). And it was a glowing bright red color.
Example 2: What was that Simpson's cartoon all about?

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 2:55 am UTC
by Hawknc
That was one of my criticisms of the movie, I hate that he doesn't give units for half of the graphs he's showing. We're not stupid! Some of us can grasp it! And extrapolation frustrates me in ANY situation - anyone who's tried to actually extrapolate real data like that knows how ridiculously inaccurate it is. What method was being used to say that temperatures would rise like that? THE PEOPLE NEED TO KNOW.

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 3:15 am UTC
by Doofulus Prime
A fairly trusted source of that crazy 'Stop ruining our planet with your wasteful consumer culture that uses far too many resource far too irresponsibly' propaganda.

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 3:45 am UTC
by hyperion
Inconvenient truth: watching a movie does not make you an expert. your granddad being convinced doesn't make it true. there are thousands of conspiracy movies that sound scientific, so have convinced people to change their mind.

there could be many things contributing to global warming. it could be us. it could be cows (wtf? been around for thousands of years). this could all be a media hype. it could be the sun.

in the end, it doesn't matter what's causing global warming or if it exists. could it possibly be that bad to lower our carbon footprint, lower emissions etc. it might not end up a cooler planet but at least it'd be clean.

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 3:54 am UTC
by Toeofdoom
khayber wrote:OK, to those here who think global warming is real and has human causes: what do you think we must do about it? Seriously. I've heard some pretty dangerous ideas suggested.

To those who have watched An Inconvenient Truth: does it get better after the 1st 20 minutes? Because I couldn't stand it any more than that. I want to give it a fair viewing and plan to try again, but I felt his presentation was inflammatory and misleading.
Example 1: The initial graph he shows of CO2 measurements increasing had no scale but was increasing at "an alarming rate" (45 degree angle). And it was a glowing bright red color.
Example 2: What was that Simpson's cartoon all about?


Okay, so the movie wasnt for the intellectuals so much. The carton was futurama, and it was a propaganda cartoon in the 31st century. It basically led to the main people having to go grab another giant ice block. But I didnt notice anything actually outright wrong, although some things were oversimplified.

What can we do about it? there a general list of stuff at the end, mostly fairly obvious: use less electricity/car fuel, avoid using planes whenver possible. And invest in things that reduce carbon dioxide too if you want. Nothing really insightful as far as I could tell.

I think with this movie, it was kinda meant to slap people in the face and say "wake up, global warming is real"

Hyp: have you investigated the subject at all? just asking because "oh it could be this, it could be that" is the most common response I have seen, and it really doesnt seem to be true once you look at the facts. The movie is just an easy example to point out. And much of it is quite obviously true.[/i]

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:37 am UTC
by mwace
Whoa, whoa, whoa you guys, you're shootin at a friendly over here!

I am not suggesting that global warming doesn't exist, and I'm not suggesting that we sould abstain from action until we've come to a solid scientific conclusion. These are descisive times, and to subscribe to either of those opinions would carry grave consiquences.

Listen, I've seen the inconvient truth, and I agree with a lot of what that movie seeks to communicate. Fluff, as sharp as you're rebuttals are, you've invalidated everybody's posts by that rationality. This is the forum to a mathy webcomic; we're here to swap opinions and feeling about the subject at hand - do not be so quick to loose sight of this!

You guys gotta stop emasculating anyone who challenges the greenhouse gas theory you've all gotten so comfortable with. Greenhouse gas theory is still only suspected to be the cause of global warming, and like it or not that means its still on the floor for debate. This doesn't mean you have to believe what other people say, but be cool to other ideas out there. The pirate / global warming chart is an exaggerated demonstration that curved graphs alone don't prove a real-life relationship between two variables. Just because Al Gore shows some very similear charts doesn't nessairly mean that there is a connection between the two things he's talking about. Theres a lot of things besides CO2 levels that have skyrocketed or dropped considerably as human population has shot up in the past several centuries; forestation and background radiation being a couple good examples.

@zvezdogled: Oh, god, lets see if I can dig up the articles I heard mention these things in...

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:46 am UTC
by mwace
This article is extremly misleading, but you only pay attention to quotes and statements made by scientists it puts out some interesting ideas:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... wstop.html
(Actually, I find it a great example of how strongly people will cling to anything that shifts the blame off their shoulders and lets them keep their sherman tank SUV)

I can't find were I heard the idea of the earth's core being a nuclear reactor being brought up. I think it was on google videos; a search yields no results.

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:59 am UTC
by OmnipotentEntity
Though correlation does not imply causation, it is pretty telling. And correlation does imply that they are somehow related. I mean, if it's the sun, then why does the CO2 follow the temperature? If it's background radiation, then why does the CO2 follow the temperature? If it's space aliens, then why does the CO2 follow the temperature? Though the correlation is by no means a proof, it is a good explanation, is there a better one? Just like evolution isn't proven it's only a good explanation, and I don't hear any quibbling about that. (I hope against hope. I don't want to relive arguments of that....)

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:12 am UTC
by mwace
And why does global temprature go up as pirates go down? Why does background radiation go up as CO2 levels go up? And why do spontaneous kitten deaths go up as masterbation goes up?

You gotta be cautiously skeptical of everything, here. Personally, I do find the graphs pretty convincing, and I'm pretty damn confident that there is a real-life connection between the population boom (or some consiquence of it) and the boom in average temprature - but like I said, there are a lot of much greater forces at work here then human civilization, and there are a lot of things we don't yet understand.

I'd just be a lot happier to see the greenhouse gas theory proven to be the primary contributor.

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:19 am UTC
by Toeofdoom
Well, it has been proven that CO2 increases the heat kept in in smaller scenarios. (2 greenhouses, one with high CO2 one with normal air, CO2 one gets hotter etc.)

It hasnt exactly been proven for those other things on any scale (as far as i know :P)

Anyway...

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:50 am UTC
by randommuz
There was quite a lot of discussion in this earlier topic that seems relevant to this discussion: http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?t=303&highlight=global+warming

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:40 pm UTC
by zvezdogled
mwace wrote:This article is extremly misleading, but you only pay attention to quotes and statements made by scientists it puts out some interesting ideas:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... wstop.html
(Actually, I find it a great example of how strongly people will cling to anything that shifts the blame off their shoulders and lets them keep their sherman tank SUV)

I can't find were I heard the idea of the earth's core being a nuclear reactor being brought up. I think it was on google videos; a search yields no results.

Thank you for that.

ok and enother exemple(hurey), this one about greenhouse gases.
The Venus is a strange planet. Almost the same size as Earth and second planet from the Sun. Although Mercury closer to sun (mercury gets 4xmore radiation from sun then Venus), Venus is hotter. The surface temperature of Venus is ~730K (Earth 287K) this is strange because her clouds reflect 60% of all the light coming from Sun. The high temperatures are caused by greenhouse gases mainly CO2...

We have been on Venus (probes) so the data is not estimated.
links:
http://www.solarspace.co.uk/Venus/venus.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus

if u want scientific articles go search on
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:16 pm UTC
by no-genius
mwace wrote: Furthermore, when we move away from the sun the sunlight that hits earth changes exponentially; in this way any changes in earths orbit would cause significent changes in global temprature. And I'm sure there could be hundreds of other possibilities.


No no no, its proportional to 1/(r^2)


and leave fluff alone!

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:34 pm UTC
by LE4dGOLEM
As I've said before. Learn what "Interglacial period" means.

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 10:09 pm UTC
by Belial
"Oh...oh dear god, I think chicago was just nuked...."

"Oh that's silly. A certain fluctuation in background radiation is totally natural...."

"But....but my face is melting"

"Liberal propaganda!"

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 10:56 pm UTC
by Fuolornis Fire Dragon
Belial wrote:"Oh...oh dear god, I think chicago was just nuked...."

"Oh that's silly. A certain fluctuation in background radiation is totally natural...."

"But....but my face is melting"

"Liberal propaganda!"
You win everything.

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 11:13 pm UTC
by Peshmerga
Fuolornis Fire Dragon wrote:
Belial wrote:"Oh...oh dear god, I think chicago was just nuked...."

"Oh that's silly. A certain fluctuation in background radiation is totally natural...."

"But....but my face is melting"

"Liberal propaganda!"
You win everything.


Even Vanna White?

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 11:19 pm UTC
by German Sausage
especially vanna white!

Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 3:27 am UTC
by Fuolornis Fire Dragon
(cowers) Who's Vanna White?

Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:33 am UTC
by German Sausage
wiki wiki wiki.
a bit of a prize, known for giving out prizes.

ok, a former spinning girl on wheel of fortune, but only because i had to look her up myself

Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 7:38 pm UTC
by Lani
Report has 'Smoking Gun' on Climate Change

From the NY Times:


...The first phase of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is being released in Paris next week. This segment, written by more than 600 scientists and reviewed by another 600 experts and edited by bureaucrats from 154 countries, includes ''a significantly expanded discussion of observation on the climate,'' said co-chair Susan Solomon, a senior scientist for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. She and other scientists held a telephone briefing on the report Monday.

The report will draw on already published peer-review science. Some recent scientific studies show that temperatures are the hottest in thousands of years, especially during the last 30 years; ice sheets in Greenland in the past couple years have shown a dramatic melting; and sea levels are rising and doing so at a faster rate in the past decade.

Also, the second part of the international climate panel's report -- to be released in April -- will for the first time feature a blockbuster chapter on how global warming is already changing health, species, engineering and food production, said NASA scientist Cynthia Rosenzweig, author of that chapter.

Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 8:16 pm UTC
by fjafjan
Whenever I read this topic title I think

"globble wubble?"
"eeerrr, Yes"
(The culprit isn't foreigners! it's Global warming!)

Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 8:23 pm UTC
by fjafjan
TheTankengine wrote:I am in love with Fluff.

Your unwavering scientific, logical approach is truly inspiring!


Combined with the Haughty looking Avatar is it truly impressive :D

Needless to say, YES

There is global warming. I think it is pretty clear it will be the new "Smoking causes cancer?" issue. It's pretty blatant that it is occuring, but alot of very influential companies are spreading missinformation.
In fifty years you won't be able to apologize for being wrong :P

Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 8:28 pm UTC
by shadebug
on that note, my sociology professor said the other day that pollution is the second biggest killer in the developed world, or some words to that effect. So even if global warming's wrong (which it isn't) still plenty of reason to cut back

Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 8:47 pm UTC
by Framling
Belial wrote:"Gee. That could be a car speeding toward me, or it could be some kind of illusion. I need more data. I will make no move to get out of the road until all the proper studies have been performed."

"Gee, this sign says that if I keep pressing this button it'll eventually explode and kill me. I'm skeptical. I will initiate a study into the explosive properties of this button.

Until the results come back, though, I'm'a keep pressing the button...."


Ahh, apt metaphors both, especially considering that we've no reason whatsoever to continue burning fossil fuels. No, we're in no way dependant on the processes that create greenhouse gasses for our transportation, the production and preparation of our food, or any other econmic necessities.

No, it is as simple as ceasing to press an otherwise functionless button, or stepping out of the way of a speeding car. Sir, I applaud your rhetorical prowess.