Chen wrote:Fair enough. The only thing not considered there is the relative fairness of arena compared to trying to play ranked (or god forbid casual). Someone who is brand new is going to get stomped pretty hard in ranked or casual, especially the early parts of the month.
Also I'm not sure how often you'd need to win high to compensate for low wins, just due to how much the rewards increase as you get to higher wins.
Extreme high wins are quite nice. Going 12-0 is way better than going 0-3. Of course, because the average is 3, the odds of getting 12 wins are pretty low, even if you assume they're distributed randomly. <1%. In practice, a new player is also likely to be at something of a disadvantage in arena due to not knowing the cards. It's a format that requires a decent amount of meta knowledge.
Given scaling, in most cases, win rates should approach 50% overall, after a time. You'll settle at whatever rank you're competitive at, and hover around there. There's a scale compression early in a season, but it still exists, due to the stars awarded for winning.