Use a technical "proof" to show that this is false.
Then, use a realistic "proof" to show that it is in fact, true.
Also, use a fatalist theory to once again prove it false.
My thoughts (note: it's spoilers for a reason):
Possible outcomes could be Obama, McCain, Clinton, etc.. Plenty of other candidates.
Had Hillary Clinton beaten Obama for the Democratic candidacy, McCain would most likely have won.
Obama won, and that's the way it is.
Note: There are no right or wrong answers, at long as it's reasonable. I'd love to hear other people's thoughts.
Subnote: Yes, the elections are over, and I should just move on, but it's my 3AM thought and I'll post it if I wish.