Diablo Mafia - Night 4 (Down with Clergy!)

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plytho
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby plytho » Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:51 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The bit of flavour that I interpreted to mean a possible second win con is directly tied to another character as well. I'd be interested to know if other players have similar pieces of info in their PMs, mainly because I wonder if there's some affect by interacting with the specific named characters, somehow (FTR, mine was not related to Red Vex). Of course, that could all be complete rubbish.
There are no references to other named characters in my role pm.

Carlington wrote:plytho - Wonders whether SirG was really the kill target from last night. Makes a good point about JDU's kill-counting power.
plytho wrote:
Some explanation for my voting: I first voted for my top scum pick (Freezeblade), when I realized that it was going to be between Carlington and Znirk I tried to figure out which one was more scummy but I could not figure it out. At one point I felt the Carlington = SK theory made sense so I voted for him.
Do you still believe this makes sense?
I do. At least I haven’t seen anything ruling it out.
Carlington wrote:To elaborate on my claim - I did use a power last night, but I didn't necessarily gain any useful information from it. It is, however, possible that I was the reason there was only one kill last night and/or the reason plytho's power failed. I'm sure everyone playing can follow what I'm saying here. I do want to note that this soft claim doesn't cover my entire power.

I believe SK!Carlington could withhold their kill and make that claim in order to sow confusion. I’m not saying this has a high probability but I’m keeping it in mind.

I like your latest reads list more than the previous one. But it irks me a little that I pointed out a couple of things about your previous reads list:
plytho wrote:Carlington: This may be a bit of OMGUS but I still find it strange that he goes from
Carlington wrote:plytho stands out as town to me, despite that aforementioned slip. I'm inclined to believe it was an honest mistake, although I suppose that's subject to future information, as with all things.
To putting me as his top scum read after Znirkbob. The explanation that I’m one of 8 neutral reads and my slip got inflated doesn’t satisfy me if you say I stand out as town first. It also means that after the jimbob = survivor reveal nobody is particularly scummy according to Carlington. Hasn’t posted D3 I hope he noticed the lynch switched to Znirk in the end. Carlington, you’re alive!

@Carlington: do you find anybody scummy at this point?


And you start your next reads list with:
Carlington wrote:First things first: A couple of names have been eliminated from the list, leaving plytho right at the bottom. I'm really not happy with that situation though - no matter how neutral my read on everyone is, plytho is definitely not at the bottom of the pile.

It feels like your trying to show introspection while you were actually prodded.

Madge wrote:I really like laserguys post, and sabrars. Call me crazy but I don't think he's scum. I don't have any ideas who is though. If I die without a full claim it may be jimbob though.
I may be misunderstanding but is your strongest scumread jimbob at this point? Don't you agree he's a confirmed survivor due to Znirk's flip?

If I'm counting correctly at this point there are 4 votes on sabrar (SDK, LaserGuy, GoP, Freezeblade).

Yeah, I'm really having trouble reading Sabrar. My gut says scum but I can't put my finger on it. I do think the secret lovers thing would be strange and the SDK=SK theory seems like a distraction.

Town to scum list
plytho
Madge
Bessie
SDK
jimbobmacdoodle
LaserGuy
Gopher of Pern
Freezeblade
Sabrar
adnapemit
Carlington
he him his

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:35 pm UTC

plytho, aside from Madge's miller claim, what puts her so high on your town list?

I doubt that the SK withheld their kill last night. I believe either both scum and SK targeted SirGabriel / SirGabriel's target, or one or the other got roleblocked. A scum roleblocker would have a better chance of blocking a potential SK than a town roleblocker.

Madge, so you're not a demon, but cop as a demon? Are you by any chance Farnham?

Carlington wrote:To elaborate on my claim - I did use a power last night, but I didn't necessarily gain any useful information from it. It is, however, possible that I was the reason there was only one kill last night and/or the reason plytho's power failed. I'm sure everyone playing can follow what I'm saying here. I do want to note that this soft claim doesn't cover my entire power.


This kind of statement is very scummy. You hint at what you did,without outright saying it. I don't get why you made this statement, if not to convey information to some people and not others. And since scum don't have daychat (I don't think? Someone correct me if I'm wrong), it could be that you are communicating to scummates.

So, Carlington. Are you a roleblocker? Jailer? Something else?


Sabrar, why would you think that you were lovers, when it wasn't explicit in the role pm? I mean, this is a newbie friendly game. Are you a demon? I can't imagine anyone else being lovers with Red Vex if they weren't a demon.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:38 pm UTC

I'm Lazarus.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Carlington » Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:16 am UTC

I targeted plytho last night with a doctor save. My actual power is not a doctor, though.

Regarding your irks about introspection vs. prodding, plytho, your prodding led me to have another look and try to actually differentiate amongst my neutral reads a bit better, especially in view of you being undeservedly at the scum end of my list.

Sabrar's claim is interesting, to say the least. Having Googled the relevant flavour, I'm finding it hard to buy Lazarus as town. Then again, why would Sabrar claim non-town when under suspicion?
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby bessie » Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:47 am UTC

Unofficial votals

Sabrar (4) : SDK, freezeblade, Gopher of Pern, LaserGuy

Not voting: adnapemit, bessie, Carlington, jimbobmacdoodle, Madge, plytho, Sabrar


LaserGuy, your setup ideas are similar to my own. As for neutrals being town or demon, all we know is that Znirk was a demon and jimbob claims to be human. What I don’t agree with is what I quoted earlier (underlining mine):
LaserGuy wrote:As far my vote is concerned, a lot of it came down to flavor. As I mentioned in an earlier post, there is pretty good evidence (and supported by ahippo's recent death, actually) that the flavor and abilities of the character from the game fairly closely aligns to their role, alignment, and abilities, despite dimochka's comments to the contrary.
Show me somewhere where dimochka made a comment about the setup that contradicts any game content revealed so far. Whatever dimochka did with the mafia (and other non-town) roles is speculation, or maybe you know something I don’t know.

LaserGuy wrote:I really doubt the presence of multiple roleblockers, but there are alternate explanations that could explain multiple people appearing to get null results on their actions that wouldn't require anything too far-fetched (for example, one or more of you targeted a commuter).
This comment, D3 claims, cryptic comments by Madge, flips, the opening post, etc. have me thinking a lot about the setup. Just on D3 I have flipped between believing the setup is complex and heavily flavor dependent, to simpler with less dependence on the flavor, back to complex roles and no idea on the importance of the flavor. Per Game-Specific rule #11, the roles would be not more complex than the Scooby game. Here’s a brief summary of the roles in that game for comparison.

Roles in the 13 Ghosts of Scooby Doo
Spoiler:
15 players

Town
Watcher-tracker-backup (limited)/hider/naïve miller
Tracker/mason/naïve miller
Commuter/hider/mason
JOAT/mason2/naïve bodyguard
Tiebreaker/mason2/neighborizer
Doctor-watcher/alignment cop

Independent at start of game
Roleblocker/vigilante (alignment determined by in-game action)
Lyncher/one shot kill (alignment can change by in-game action)

Survivors /siblings
Redirector/sibling chat
Misinformation/sibling chat (wincon can change)

Mafia
Hider (limited)/mafia chat
Hider (limited)/mafia chat
Godfather/mafia chat
Mafia supporter/roleblocker/alignment cop

Independent
Survivor/serial killer/godfather/redirector
Town started at 6/15 and won. There are similarities between that setup and this one (see siblings), and I’m starting to doubt the safe consensus of a 9-3-2-1 setup. I need to think about this more, or maybe not because it is distracting me.

Sabrar wrote:Assumption 1: there are at least 9 pro-town players in the game (townies or indies who want to actively help town).
Reason: 8 is just not enough, a single mislynch and a kill leaves town in minority.
See above.

Sabrar wrote:Conclusion: if we have SK we have to lynch him/her today. This is the only way to guarantee our numerical superiority, no matter what happens at night.
You’re assuming we know with certainty the identity of the serial killer and the identity of at least one mafia member.

Sabrar wrote:Maybe SDK didn't think this through (though I doubt that). Maybe he thought the SK wouldn't think this through and would believe him that he needs to hit scum (this supposes less than ideal play from SK). Maybe he knows that there isn't any SK because he is in a cult. Maybe he is the SK.
How would having a cult cancel out having a serial killer?

I’m really having trouble seeing what is what the problem is with SDK’s remark. The serial killer needs to keep the number of mafia low because he won’t win against two mafia. They know each other’s identities and will vote together.

plytho wrote:I believe SK!Carlington could withhold their kill and make that claim in order to sow confusion.
Or his target was protected. Or he was blocked. He waited too long to “claim” for me to believe him. I think he wanted to wait and see if anyone claimed seeing him last night, but then had to respond to the modprod.

Carlington wrote:I targeted plytho last night with a doctor save.

Carlington wrote: It is, however, possible that I was the reason there was only one kill last night and/or the reason plytho's power failed. I'm sure everyone playing can follow what I'm saying here.
And how would a doctor cause plytho’s power to fail?

Carlington wrote:I'm finding it hard to buy Lazarus as town.

dimochka wrote:Since I promised a newbie-friendly game, I'll explain a bit more. Alignments were allocated 100% randomly, and players assigned to a given role were also random. As far as the connection between powers and role - they weren't completely random but I took quite a bit of creative freedom with those, AND they were allocated BEFORE alignment. So if for instance I could have decided that Ogden's Wife (used as an example since she's dead in my flavor; not in the video game) was a healer, watcher / tracker, Ogden's bodyguard, or a million other things. That also DOES NOT prevent her from from being anti-town at the same time.


Carlington, how about answering some of the questions that have been directed at you?

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:29 am UTC

I may be misunderstanding but is your strongest scumread jimbob at this point? Don't you agree he's a confirmed survivor due to Znirk's flip?


I think he's confirmed survivor, unless the tapestry of claims results in some sort of ~strange reveal~. If I claim, a tiny modicum of further information about jimbob will be known (and I really mean tiny - it's probably completely irrelevant). If I die without claiming, that information will be lost. My remark was meant to be used as a breadcrumb in conjunction with my flip to make assumptions about how my night action was used. I really don't want to get into the weeds about this because it's really distracting and I am not feeling great today, but ironically being sick means I have more time to post on mafia despite having a much more foggy mind so here I came like a sucker =/

Sabrar's lover claim was really fishy. I need to remember that scum can make good posts. Ugh.

Madge, so you're not a demon, but cop as a demon? Are you by any chance Farnham?


Could be. Could not be, too. You'll have to wait until I claim. I'm not Lazarus if that helps :lol:

My role PM doesn't mention any other players. I don't believe this game is complex. We've had such ordinary flips. The weird survivor stuff though IS weird so who the hell knows.

Claim from Sabrar. We don't know how scum were given fake claims so we don't know if being given a sole name is useful or not. I mean it's effectively impossible for anyone to counterclaim sabrar (scum!sabrar would not have claimed a non-safe name, I can only assume and town!sabrar would have a real name). A role at least can be counterclaimed.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:58 am UTC

bessie wrote:LaserGuy, your setup ideas are similar to my own. As for neutrals being town or demon, all we know is that Znirk was a demon and jimbob claims to be human. What I don’t agree with is what I quoted earlier (underlining mine):
LaserGuy wrote:As far my vote is concerned, a lot of it came down to flavor. As I mentioned in an earlier post, there is pretty good evidence (and supported by ahippo's recent death, actually) that the flavor and abilities of the character from the game fairly closely aligns to their role, alignment, and abilities, despite dimochka's comments to the contrary.


Show me somewhere where dimochka made a comment about the setup that contradicts any game content revealed so far. Whatever dimochka did with the mafia (and other non-town) roles is speculation, or maybe you know something I don’t know.


That was mostly made in reference to the "random alignment" business. The townie characters that have flipped have all been humans with townie roles that fit with the flavor. Znirk's is somewhat more ambiguous, admittedly. So while I think any character could in principle be scum, I think that the human will be replaced with a demon aspect (leaving a falseclaim, presumably), to avoid the "Diablo is town" nonsense... which I feel that dimochka was, at very least, deliberately coy about. I think the initial statement "Note: The only use of RNG in this game was to allocate player alignments. Any role could be town / scum / something else" is, in this context, somewhat misleading.

As far as scum powers, I don't have anything useful to claim here, at least among the townie roles that we've seen so far, I have to imagine that if any of them ended up as scum they'd probably have needed to be rewritten (I know people have mentioned one game where the cop was scum, so maybe not that role I suppose).

bessie wrote:This comment, D3 claims, cryptic comments by Madge, flips, the opening post, etc. have me thinking a lot about the setup. Just on D3 I have flipped between believing the setup is complex and heavily flavor dependent, to simpler with less dependence on the flavor, back to complex roles and no idea on the importance of the flavor. Per Game-Specific rule #11, the roles would be not more complex than the Scooby game. Here’s a brief summary of the roles in that game for comparison.


I had looked at the roles for that game when you had mentioned it earlier. All of the various interactions made my eyes cross.

Sabrar wrote:Conclusion: if we have SK we have to lynch him/her today. This is the only way to guarantee our numerical superiority, no matter what happens at night.
You’re assuming we know with certainty the identity of the serial killer and the identity of at least one mafia member.

I'm not sure how it affects your analysis, but there were 15 players in the game and I'm pretty sure you did these calculations with 14.

plytho wrote:There are no references to other named characters in my role pm.


Since people are claiming this, I'll mention that, FWIW, I have no references to other characters in my role PM either.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:53 am UTC

I feel bad when nobody comments about the actual logic used in my analysis and instead attack me based on feelings and generalities. I mean why should I bother if others don't try to understand my points?

plytho wrote:the SDK=SK theory seems like a distraction.
1. This is strange coming from you in light of your reply to my inquiry about things being distracting.
2. If you actually read my conclusion, you should be able to realize that the SDK=SK line was meant as a joke (or more precisely a pun). But to clear up any confusion about that, here is a detailed outline:
- my intention was to pin down what I felt was off with SDK's remark, as mentioned here
- SDK says he wants to leave SK alive so s/he can help Town by killing scum
- this means (in my opinion) that if he has proof of X being SK and Y being scum, he would vote for Y
- I show with actual logic and math that SK has better chances of winning if s/he kills Town in that situation
- therefore SDK's logic is anti-Town and he should vote for X instead in that situation

bessie wrote:You’re assuming we know with certainty the identity of the serial killer and the identity of at least one mafia member.
No, my point is that SDK's opinion of leaving the SK alive is anti-town given all other things being equal (please see above).
bessie wrote:How would having a cult cancel out having a serial killer?
Because there can't be both if you accept my assumptions to be true. I know you have your doubts about them but that's irrelevant for the analysis as posted.
bessie wrote:The serial killer needs to keep the number of mafia low because he won’t win against two mafia.
I would appreciate if instead of just posting things that are true in general you would go through my logic for the actual numbers. SK needs to keep the scum population down but if he does it too well then Town will win in the end and that's not what s/he wants.

LaserGuy wrote:I'm not sure how it affects your analysis, but there were 15 players in the game and I'm pretty sure you did these calculations with 14.
9+3+2+1=15. Please check again.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:16 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I'm not sure how it affects your analysis, but there were 15 players in the game and I'm pretty sure you did these calculations with 14.

9+3+2+1=15. Please check again.


Sorry, you're right. I misread part of your post. Will review again.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:00 am UTC

@Madge: I 'claimed' Lovers here. 2 days later you defend me here. Half a day later you change your mind about my claim here. What gives?

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:08 am UTC

Ok, assuming I wasn't roleblocker or otherwise interfered with last night, I redirected Carlington to adnapemit last night. This means that plytho wasn't protected. It also means adnapemit might have been protected and that Carlington is less likely to have been a killer, assuming nobody blocked him or protected adnapemit. It doesn't rule out SK or scum!Carlington for certain by a long way though.

On Sabrqr's logic. I think the logic is correct, but horribly incomplete, since there could be all sorts of factors he's not taking into account. The ultimate conclusion that SDK's statement is wrong definitely doesn't follow. You are assuming the worst case scenario happens - mislynch followed by town deaths at night, and me siding with scum. I don't think town can go down worst-case scenario thinking given the situation. That sort of thinking led to Znirk's mislynch (see plytho's reasoning).
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:11 am UTC

EBWOP: assuming I wasn't roleblocked
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:12 am UTC

I thought on it a bit more, you made a good post but your claim is weird as other people have pointed out. But the stuff with jimbob and znirk was weird too so I don't know WHAT to believe anymore. Like, based on the actual confirmed evidence I have, this should be an ordinary game. But all the claims make it sound weird, so I'm guessing it's not that simple.

I do think your logic vis-a-vis starting numbers is pretty factual though.

ninja: no new info. though jimbob has every incentive to side with scum if he can win with scum, and every incentive to tell us he'd NEVER EVER EVER do that to us.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:15 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:On Sabrqr's logic. I think the logic is correct, but horribly incomplete, since there could be all sorts of factors he's not taking into account. The ultimate conclusion that SDK's statement is wrong definitely doesn't follow. You are assuming the worst case scenario happens - mislynch followed by town deaths at night, and me siding with scum.
Again, I'm assuming the same things that SDK did (or more precisely, implied) in his comment. For the last time: he thinks that SK will try to lynch scum. It can be proven that it is better for SK to try to lynch town. Therefore his conclusion to leave SK alive is wrong.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:32 am UTC

Because I was in a bit of hurry and I really don't want having to explain it once more:

It doesn't matter a tiny bit what assumptions I make about doc/roleblocker/SK reads. It really doesn't.
The main point is that if we lynch scum today then SK (from his own point-of-view) fares much-much better trying to kill town, than trying to further reduce scum's numbers. This is because 4-2-1-1 is much more advantageous for him than 5-1-1-1. In the latter town can lynch the last scum and SK in any order and retain numerical superiority. In the former town cannot afford to lynch SK because then scum will win with the help of jimbob (and as Madge pointed out, you're lying if you say you won't side with them in that scenario).
SDK's point was that we should lynch scum instead of SK because then SK will help us. This has been proven to be wrong.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:16 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:plytho, aside from Madge's miller claim, what puts her so high on your town list?

It's mostly the miller claim but I haven't seen anything I find scummy from her and I have seen some thoughts similar to mine.

Carlington wrote:To elaborate on my claim - I did use a power last night, but I didn't necessarily gain any useful information from it. It is, however, possible that I was the reason there was only one kill last night and/or the reason plytho's power failed. I'm sure everyone playing can follow what I'm saying here. I do want to note that this soft claim doesn't cover my entire power.

I’m not sure everyone can follow what you’re saying here, given the different responses to your statement. LaserGuy thinks roleblocker, Gop thinks roleblocker or jailer, you claim you used a doctor power on me which doesn’t really match your statement.

Also:
Carlington wrote:Regarding your irks about introspection vs. prodding, plytho, your prodding led me to have another look and try to actually differentiate amongst my neutral reads a bit better, especially in view of you being undeservedly at the scum end of my list.

If my prodding D3 led you to have another look why would you have used a doctor save on me (at that point your second scummiest read) N2?


Sabrar wrote:
plytho wrote:the SDK=SK theory seems like a distraction.
1. This is strange coming from you in light of your reply to my inquiry about things being distracting.
2. If you actually read my conclusion, you should be able to realize that the SDK=SK line was meant as a joke (or more precisely a pun). But to clear up any confusion about that, here is a detailed outline:
- my intention was to pin down what I felt was off with SDK's remark, as mentioned here
- SDK says he wants to leave SK alive so s/he can help Town by killing scum
- this means (in my opinion) that if he has proof of X being SK and Y being scum, he would vote for Y
- I show with actual logic and math that SK has better chances of winning if s/he kills Town in that situation
- therefore SDK's logic is anti-Town and he should vote for X instead in that situation

1. You’re right. Distraction isn’t the right word. I think found the contradiction between the statement SDK=SK and your actual logic strange.
2. I think I almost picked up the pun as I found myself thinking what the D would stand for if the S and K in SDK are “serial” and “killer”, my conclusion was that you and bessie should be afraid.
3. Response to your actual logic: I think the logic is solid based on the setup spec and killing SK is better than killing scum at this point. As to SDK’s motivation behind it. I’m wondering who SDK is talking to if he’s anti-town. If he’s an SK trying to avoid being lynched it doesn’t make sense to advise “don’t lynch SK” because iirc nobody was suspecting him of being SK at that point. If he’s scum it’s even stranger to advise “lynch sum first” unless our reads are way off?
Sabrar wrote:I have no idea which of the above is true, I'd be happy to see any clarification from him about his train of thought.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby adnapemit » Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:24 am UTC

plytho wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:plytho, aside from Madge's miller claim, what puts her so high on your town list?

It's mostly the miller claim but I haven't seen anything I find scummy from her and I have seen some thoughts similar to mine.

Could you be a bit more specific on the similar thoughts? Some of her opinions seem very different to yours.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:58 am UTC

adnapemit wrote:
plytho wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:plytho, aside from Madge's miller claim, what puts her so high on your town list?

It's mostly the miller claim but I haven't seen anything I find scummy from her and I have seen some thoughts similar to mine.

Could you be a bit more specific on the similar thoughts? Some of her opinions seem very different to yours.


She expressed a willingness to vote for Freezeblade near the end of D2. He was my top scum pick at that time. As far as madge's D3 content is concerned, it seems at least a little compromised by her foggy mind. See: her correction on Sabrar. I found her 'Sabrar is probably not scum' read strange but her correction felt natural and she mentioned being spacey at that point. Are you thinking of anything else very different?
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:02 pm UTC

Just a thought in case I get lynched while being totally wrong about the setup and it's more similar to Scooby with only 6 Town and cult+SK+whatever:
I think Madge could have been recruited N1. She is an unlikely target for the scum-kill because she will almost certainly be protected/watched, so cult could be reasonably confident to gain an ally who is safe from getting lynched. Might explain her lack of contribution (which also conveniently hides any possible connections to her teammates).
Note: I don't advocate her lynch currently as I don't think this is the case, but if a dead cultist should turn up at some point you need to take a second look at her.

Will vote tonight after hopefully SDK and freezeblade had a chance to comment on the weekend's happenings. Current candidates are Carlington, freezeblade and LaserGuy in roughly that order.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby dimochka » Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:56 pm UTC

Current Votals:
Sabrar - 4 (SDK, freezeblade, Gopher of Pern, LaserGuy); T-2

D3 Deadline [Click here!] in 20 hours.

If I missed any questions or votes, please let me know. Anything bolded that I didn't respond to was not intentional.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:02 pm UTC

Request mod-prod on freezeblade

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:17 pm UTC

Where is everyone? Why are you not voting?

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby dimochka » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:21 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Request mod-prod on freezeblade

Mod-prod sent.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:37 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Where is everyone? Why are you not voting?
Probably most people think you are a good lynch candidate, and therefore have no need to place a vote, given how far along you are. As to why nobody is posting, I cannot say.

FTR, I don't think it likely that I will be voting today. I am going to take a look at a few players now, to see if I get any strong scummy reads, but doubt it will alter my thoughts.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby adnapemit » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:41 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Where is everyone? Why are you not voting?

Because I would be voting for you but don't want to put you too close to hammer to prevent an early end of day.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:45 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Probably most people think you are a good lynch candidate, and therefore have no need to place a vote, given how far along you are.
Sure, but that gives scum an easy excuse not to post and give reads.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby freezeblade » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:56 pm UTC

I'm here, and have read though the posts made over the weekend.

My reads haven't shifted significantly, with Sabrar still being my top scum read. This is further cemented by the "I'm getting voted for due to feelings, not my posts!" complaining, which seems like a scum reaction than a frustrated town reaction.

Barring someone making some big reveal or slip up, I think there's not much else to learn or analyze on this day. We will learn a lot from this lynch and night actions, no matter how the results land.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:04 pm UTC

I assume you are referring to this post. Well plytho conceded that my logic was correct, LaserGuy admitted he made a mistake but conveniently haven't reviewed my actual analysis yet (nor has he responded to this), and bessie didn't post since then. So from my perspective there is nothing wrong with my analysis (obviously) and you all just don't seem to care. It's hard to stay motivated like that.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:26 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I assume you are referring to this post. Well plytho conceded that my logic was correct, LaserGuy admitted he made a mistake but conveniently haven't reviewed my actual analysis yet (nor has he responded to this), and bessie didn't post since then. So from my perspective there is nothing wrong with my analysis (obviously) and you all just don't seem to care. It's hard to stay motivated like that.
What does your analysis tell us, Sabrar, that is of real use? From what I can tell, you are saying that we should be aiming for mafia, not a Serial Killer. So what difference does that make to why people are voting for you? The only difference I can see is if you are actually claiming SK, which presumably you are not. Am I misunderstanding something? You appear to be trying to get people to focus on something that actually doesn't mean all that much at all. Unless you are accusing SDK of being scum? And why are you not voting already for somebody you find scummy?
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:33 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:From what I can tell, you are saying that we should be aiming for mafia, not a Serial Killer.
I said multiple times that SDK's opinion of leaving the SK alive is an anti-town strategy and we should lynch the SK (if there is one). How you can arrive to the above conclusion is beyond me. Please reread because I don't understand you here.

I was waiting with my vote hoping that people would contribute. It seems they won't.

Vote: freezeblade
Lurking and doesn't even attempt to look at anyone else.

Request mod-prod on SDK

Good night.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:From what I can tell, you are saying that we should be aiming for mafia, not a Serial Killer.
How you can arrive to the above conclusion is beyond me. Please reread because I don't understand you here.
I apologise, I got switched around here, going off a faulty memory without bothering to look back (trying to compile a reads list and I keep getting distracted, so I didn't want to go and do a complete re-read of that section).

I know you like to play logically, as do I sometimes, but I think there's a big part in Mafia about feelings and people's overall tone, rather than the physical content, and cold hard logic and stats can never capture this. For example, let's say bessie, who is broadly viewed as townie by everybody in the game, is actually the Serial Killer. From experience reading and playing games, this is not that implausible a scenario, as sometimes a Serial Killer does a very good job at looking townie (note, I am not saying she IS a SK, just using it as an example). It is in her interests given the current situation to lynch scum, and kill scum, because eliminating mafia as a faction removes the main threat to her life, since mafia are more likely to kill her than town are.

You yourself have said in the past that not everybody thinks and plays the same way you do, so just because it's what you would do in any given situation does not mean that it is what others would do.

Phone going now. Hopefully I'll get one or two more names to my reads list later before I go to bed.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:04 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Where is everyone? Why are you not voting?

I was waiting for Carlington's response to my questions. But I guess I can vote while I wait.

Vote: Carlington
he him his

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Carlington » Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:52 pm UTC

bessie wrote:What serial killer? Much of your D2 content argued against there being a serial killer in the game. Oh, wait, that’s right, today you’re trying to take credit for blocking a night kill. So Carlington, do you think we should be aiming for mafia or the serial killer? Why?
I'm not really sure what your objection is to me saying "the" serial killer. Would "a" serial killer be better? In any case, I was referring to the SK in SDKs post. I think it's perfectly fine to get a scummy feeling from someone's strategy for an SK whether or not you believe there is an SK in the game. As an example, would you find it scummy if I said "We should not focus on the cult, because even if we don't kill them we can all get culled and win with them"? Would this change depending on whether you think there's a cult in the game?

bessie wrote:And how would a doctor cause plytho’s power to fail?
On its own? It wouldn't. If I feel as though I am a likely target for redirection it might, so I don't want to discount the possibility. If plytho has some aspect of his power which causes it to fail if he is targeted it might, which is a somewhat less likely possibility but I have no reason to discount it.

plytho wrote:If my prodding D3 led you to have another look why would you have used a doctor save on me (at that point your second scummiest read) N2?
Because you were actually a neutral read, as I have explained when previously asked this question. Despite your position on the list at that time, I didn't believe you to be likely scum. Still don't.

I have to go have breakfast and go to work and so forth so I don't have time for more right now.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:58 pm UTC

I'm completely baffled why Sabrar has not claimed a power at this point. He's about to be lynched, how could it possibly hurt? Makes me think that he doesn't have anything "good" to claim...
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:14 pm UTC

Reads list, as promised:

Notes:
Spoiler:
adnapemit - voted me D2, finding my acceptance of of Znirk's claim suspicious. I had her as scummy due to low content and heavy scum bias in reads list on D2. Nothing to claim. Hopes SDK is town. Doubts explained by Znirk's flip. Tried to re-explain suspicion on plytho. Reviews option of Carlington being SK. Thinks SK!Carlington likely. Sabrar top of scum. Lynching either good. Finds lover claim from Sabrar odd. Found Sabrar contradictory with way he painted Gopher as scummy. Finds Gopher town as a result. Agrees that Sabrar is wrong re. SK plans. Ordered reads list - plytho, Freezeblade and LaserGuy as scummy.
Asks for clarification on plytho's comment re. Madge.

Carlington - used a power. Claims to have protected plytho, but might also have blocked plytho. Soft claim, but doesn't explicitly say what he is claiming. Big reads list. Bad feeling about Sabrar that he can't elucidate. Has Sabrar, LaserGuy and adnapemit on the scummy side of the spectrum.
adnapemit: I'm feeling less objectionable to her at this point, although the lack of any explanation on LaserGuy and freezeblade being in the scummy side of things, I find interesting (less so bessie on the town side, but similar thoughts apply). Less scummy than yesterday.

bessie: not doing an in depth analysis of her, because I have her as pretty solidly town, and nothing I've seen from her changes that.

Carlington: has been lurking on and off all game. I think my earlier theory about him being a Serial Killer is still possible, though marginally less likely due to the fact that adnapemit didn't die last night. I could see him having some sort of alternative power and still be a Serial Killer, which he can alternate with, or he could simply have withheld his kill. The vague claim is suspicious, in that it leaves a lot of room for manoeuvre.

<Phone call took forever, so here are a few quick thoughts on some of the rest before I go to bed>

freezeblade: He STILL hasn't responded to my prods on the Carlington "lurker lynch", despite this now being the third time I've raised it, at least (and I think others have too). Seems to be sitting on his laurels now that he's got a firm wagon rolling on his preferred scum candidate, rather than looking for other scum candidates (there must be more than one, even if Sabrar is scum). Definitely sliding in the scummy direction, especially should Carlington flip Mafia at any point.

Gopher: Nothing negative stands out to me from him. His viewpoints appear to mirror some of my own, with regards to Carlington and freezeblade, and to a lesser extent Sabrar. Moderately townie.

LaserGuy: seems a bit defensive in his response to SDK's suggestion that he is Sabrar's scum buddy. I find his reasoning for voting Sabrar a little weak. I also don't feel that he's said much about a number of players, but don't have time to properly evaluate this. Slightly scummy.

Madge: I don't get Madge's comments still about me. I'm beginning to wonder also if she might be another indie, based purely on the fact that she has said almost nothing this game day of substance. Her D1 miller claim still leaves me convinced that she isn't scum though.

@Madge - you promised a full claim "tomorrow". Did you mean now, or D4?

plytho: I'm willing to accept his explanation for the vote weirdness at the end of D2. His response felt pretty townie, to me. His continued efforts into reads lists also look good to me, and his top four scum picks match my own more or less.

Sabrar: It's now definitely getting too late to look at him in depth, and he's probably the one I've responded to the most over the past game day (this could be incorrect - not actually gone back to look). I definitely don't feel good about him, and as previously noted I'm not opposed to his lynch. As Madge points out, it's weird he hasn't claimed already either, given the state of the wagon. He's seemed overly defensive this past game day, from what I can tell. Some of that is acceptable (his response to my more recent comment about his analysis), but others less so. For example, he completely dismisses some of my suggested logic for things (e.g. my comment re. SK being likely because of game balance), yet seems insistent that his ideas are correct, whilst also proposing slightly weird and wacky thoughts (D2 comment on SK!Madge anyone?). My one biggest hesitation that holds me back from labelling him as my top scum read is how wagon is sitting with pretty much no alternative. This doesn't sit well to me. Potentially, he could be an anti-town indie (including SK etc), so is giving off negative vibes, whilst not being protected by team-mates.

SDK: lots of activity on the first couple of RL days this game day, but has since gone quiet. As I noted previously, I agree broadly with many of his points, but this doesn't make him town, from my experience with him.

Town
bessie
SDK
plytho
Madge
Gopher of Pern
LaserGuy
adnapemit
freezeblade
Sabrar
Carlington
Scum
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Madge » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:36 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Madge - you promised a full claim "tomorrow". Did you mean now, or D4?


D4. I figure by then we'll need to put as many chips on the table as possible.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby SDK » Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:49 am UTC

Sorry I didn't get a chance to post today. I'll get a proper response tomorrow. I have been reading along when possible. Still think Sabrar is mafia, but if he does flip town we've got some decent info to work with. Pretty sure LaserGuy's vote is a bus though, and Sabrar's wagon seems as pure as pure can be otherwise, so no concerns there at this point.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby bessie » Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:19 am UTC

I just got home from work. Mornings are not my happy time. Monday mornings doubly so.

LaserGuy wrote:As far as scum powers, I don't have anything useful to claim here, at least among the townie roles that we've seen so far, I have to imagine that if any of them ended up as scum they'd probably have needed to be rewritten (I know people have mentioned one game where the cop was scum, so maybe not that role I suppose).
That was in reference to Misnomer’s PYP games. He wrote all the roles then randomized the alignments, no rebalancing. So it's possible (those games were larger though).

Sabrar wrote:I feel bad when nobody comments about the actual logic used in my analysis and instead attack me based on feelings and generalities. I mean why should I bother if others don't try to understand my points?
I carefully read and analyze every one of your posts. I don’t claim to always understand your logic though.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:How would having a cult cancel out having a serial killer?
Because there can't be both if you accept my assumptions to be true. I know you have your doubts about them but that's irrelevant for the analysis as posted.
Ok I missed that because I don’t necessarily agree with Assumption 1.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:The serial killer needs to keep the number of mafia low because he won’t win against two mafia.
I would appreciate if instead of just posting things that are true in general you would go through my logic for the actual numbers. SK needs to keep the scum population down but if he does it too well then Town will win in the end and that's not what s/he wants.
I did go through the numbers and I can’t find it in my notes so I think I deleted it when I was writing up my post. I’ll try to reconstruct it (I tried before work but I didn’t have time). If we are at 6-3-1-1 and we lynch mafia, tonight we are at 6-2-1-1, mafia kills town so 5-2-1-1, and jimbob will side with mafia if it’s favorable for him. So if the SK kills town, D4 is 4-2-1-1, favorable for SK in so much that town must aim for mafia on D4, and night 4 will be 4-1-1-1, mafia and SK need to aim for each other because if they both go for town D5 is 2-1-1-1 and jimbob will side with mafia or town (he can’t win with the SK). Second version if today we lynch mafia, tonight is 6-2-1-1, mafia kills town so 5-2-1-1, SK kills mafia and D4 is 5-1-1-1. This puts the SK and mafia on equal ground (in numbers) and they both benefit from a mislynch, so neither needs to lead the wagon on D4 which could draw suspicion. N4 is 4-1-1-1 same. N4 ends up the same if we lynch mafia and the SK kills town or mafia. I’m comparing now to your numbers and it looks like we have the same numbers but we draw different conclusions. I can see your logic but I came to the conclusion that it is better for the SK to try to keep the number of mafia low because they will work as a team. Town doesn’t know their members and can be manipulated.

And as I said before, this only matters if we know the identity of the serial killer and at least one mafia member (and I know this is irrelevant to your argument that SDK is the serial killer).

plytho wrote:2. I think I almost picked up the pun as I found myself thinking what the D would stand for if the S and K in SDK are “serial” and “killer”, my conclusion was that you and bessie should be afraid.
:lol: ... :lol: ... :shock:

Carlington wrote:
bessie wrote:And how would a doctor cause plytho’s power to fail?
On its own? It wouldn't. If I feel as though I am a likely target for redirection it might, so I don't want to discount the possibility. If plytho has some aspect of his power which causes it to fail if he is targeted it might, which is a somewhat less likely possibility but I have no reason to discount it.
Carlington, you didn’t answer this question in context.
bessie wrote:
Carlington wrote:I targeted plytho last night with a doctor save.

Carlington wrote: It is, however, possible that I was the reason there was only one kill last night and/or the reason plytho's power failed. I'm sure everyone playing can follow what I'm saying here.
And how would a doctor cause plytho’s power to fail?
Ok, let me ask it again. Carlington, how can you targeting plytho on N2 with a doctor power be the reason plytho’s power failed?

More later, I’m going to post content as I have it because deadline is in less than 13 hours.

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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Madge » Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:27 am UTC

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:As far as scum powers, I don't have anything useful to claim here, at least among the townie roles that we've seen so far, I have to imagine that if any of them ended up as scum they'd probably have needed to be rewritten (I know people have mentioned one game where the cop was scum, so maybe not that role I suppose).
That was in reference to Misnomer’s PYP games. He wrote all the roles then randomized the alignments, no rebalancing. So it's possible (those games were larger though).


The big thing about those games was that the roles were all public, including who had which role. It meant that people could prioritise their lynch targets based on who would be the biggest asset to town/scum, so it was kind of self-balancing in a kind of counterintuitive way.
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Re: Diablo Mafia - Day 3 (Demons Abound)

Postby Carlington » Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:28 am UTC

Quotes are painful on phone. bessie, I don't see what you're not getting about my answer, I'm sorry. If plytho's power doesn't work if he's targeted, then it would fail (except now no because it's been claimed I was redirected to adnapemit). If I targeted plytho with a doctor and was redirected to someone who plytho targeted with a kill then his power would fail. This is somewhat less likely, I grant you, but I have to consider every possibility if there's a chance my power caused plytho's to fail.
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