Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:43 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I don't understand why he apologised to cemper in this post, given that I can't see anything in cemper's posts from around that time that warranted this apology.
You make post-by-post analysis and couldn't find it??? I mean it's not super-obvious but it should have occured to you nonetheless.
I wasn't doing a detailed post-by-post read - I only looked for references to PW/cemper in each other's posts - and it wasn't even all in one sitting, so I lost track of context occasionally. When I saw that apology I looked at the nearby posts by the two of them in an attempt to see the context, and didn't spot it (the read was made significantly earlier). It was only later when analysing the bessie read in the same post that I made the possible connection. Is this how you read the apology? If not, would you care to clarify what you think PW was apologising for?

Sabrar wrote:jimbob's 'case' on cemper is extremely thin, describing it as 'fair chance but not exactly hard and fast' is disingenuous. Him backtracking on moody/Madge also looks suspicious.
Sorry if my opinion changed given new evidence. Would you rather I kept silent about this?

As for the cemper case, I wouldn't call it thin - the noob-game reference in particular pinged me, and the fact that PW didn't vote for him, despite having no other vote down also doesn't look great (note - I will be using this as evidence for a possible LG-PW team as well). The latter point could easily be a classic case of distancing (see also cemper's lack of vote and PW, and it's about the only major point I have for a bessie-PW team too).

Sabrar wrote:Request mod-prod on cemper.
As much as I want to hear from cemper too, you're being premature here, since the window is 48 hours, which it hasn't been since day start.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:04 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:Peaceful Whale claims to be new, which other players around here might be able to judge better than me. I would think them the more scummy the more experienced they are, mostly because I remember that the first game that I have played on xkcdmafia, I got by as scum by pretending to suck more at mafia than I actually did. And Peaceful Whale's content sure sucks pretty hard.
This is what I think the apology refers to.

My mistake about the mod-prod, I used day-end to compare the elapsed time to.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:07 am UTC

Yeah, I'm here. I started composing a larger post yesterday evening, but haven't finished it yet. There's just so much content to sift through.

Also, Sabrar, the first time you asked "where's cemper?" today, barely 18 hours had passed since day start... I understand you like spammy playstyles, but that seems a tad excessive.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:09 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sorry if my opinion changed given new evidence. Would you rather I kept silent about this?
You doubled down when I asked you about it D1. It was a read on moody, not PW therefore having new evidence on PW has less relevance.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:09 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:My mistake about the mod-prod, I used day-end to compare the elapsed time to.
This made me go back to the rules to check if scum have nightchat. Apparently they don't. Mother of pings though...

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:12 am UTC

'Barely' 18 hours is excessive? Good to know. Please tell me how you plan to catch scum if everybody posts jusg once a day? That gives us 7 posts per player per day, barely enough to get out of RVS.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:16 am UTC

Back in the day when I played here more regularly, seven posts per player and day was considered high-activity. Also, what's RVS?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:18 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:and the fact that PW didn't vote for him, despite having no other vote down also doesn't look great (note - I will be using this as evidence for a possible LG-PW team as well).
And that's why it's thin. Will you suspect each player who PW didn't vote for? That's a long list.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:19 am UTC

Random Voting Stage

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:27 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:My mistake about the mod-prod, I used day-end to compare the elapsed time to.
This made me go back to the rules to check if scum have nightchat. Apparently they don't. Mother of pings though...
Town slip? Scum having day chat around here usually automatically implies night chat these days. However, to be clear:

Do scum have ability to chat at all times, i.e. both day and night?

Thank you for the clarification Sabrar re. the PW apology, that does make more sense now.
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sorry if my opinion changed given new evidence. Would you rather I kept silent about this?
You doubled down when I asked you about it D1. It was a read on moody, not PW therefore having new evidence on PW has less relevance.
I disagree - I thought moody's comments were reasonable, especially given I had a town read of PW at the time. If I'd had a scum read on PW, it would probably have changed how I read things. Consequently, knowing that PW is scum definitely changes the whole context of that read, and when I looked at it from a potential scum-buddy line of thinking (which I didn't really do before), I was more suspicious of it. In retrospect, I probably should have looked at it from both town!PW and scum!PW angles, given I didn't know or even have a strong read of PW's alignment.

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:and the fact that PW didn't vote for him, despite having no other vote down also doesn't look great (note - I will be using this as evidence for a possible LG-PW team as well).
And that's why it's thin. Will you suspect each player who PW didn't vote for? That's a long list.
No. Those three players are all players PW had on his lynch list, so he could be distancing them, but without wanting to actually bus (sorry, I should have explicitly brought up the lynch list in that post).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:35 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Those three players are all players PW had on his lynch list.
EBWOP: I completely messed this up. I should learn to read my own posts more. PW's lynch list was {cemper, LG, somitomi}. Cemper, I've already looked at, and somitomi is confirmed town, so it's only LG who I still need to use this evidence for. :oops:
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:52 pm UTC

Interactions with PW (continued). As a note, I'm only including D1 content in these analyses.

LaserGuy:
Spoiler:
Posts by LG referencing PW:
Responds to PW's post about why scum would be unlikely to claim PR (risk of counter-claim and mutual lynch).
Town lean on PW with no explanation.
Surprised about PW's comment saying Sabrar makes jokes.
Thinks BF would be unlikely to play woofing gambit with new players, such as PW, flicky or somitomi.Notes Hari's lack of comment on PW's content, especially compared with Halloween, stating it as part of his reason for suspecting Hari to be scum.
FoSses flicky in part for his high number of townies/uncertains and not offering a reason for his scum read on PW.
Notes the timings around when Suzaku's clarification re. day chat, and how PW posted his first post immediately before it. Wonders if it was waiting for mods. Votes somitomi instead of PW for this, and asks bessie why she's voting somitomi instead of PW.
Switches vote to PW, presumably for his hypocrisy around scum joking.
Has PW, along with 3 others on his lynch list.
Brings up PW's potential scum slip. Points out that PW was read as town in Bin Chicken (later corrected to Fridge).
Unvotes PW saying he can no longer trust his PW tells, following PW's acknowledgement of copying bessie.
Likes somitomi's reaction to the PW slip.
Votes flicky whose reads on PW and himself seemed more like "likely lynch bait" rather than "likely mafia".
Brings up PW's ambivalent read as one of the items that put him at lynch bait levels.

PW posts referencing LG:
In his early reads post. He stated he didn't like LG's plan, but now does. Surprised he's voting Sabrar. Thinks if he's scum, most likely scum with Sabrar. Note - no conclusion on whether he thinks he is scum or not.
In response to LaserGuy, states he thinks scum!Sabrar would be more light-hearted.
In his post-by-post analysis of BoomFrog, he notes LG's defence of cemper, and cemper's liking of LG's schemes, and highlights the possible correlation.
Corrects himself regarding his "Sabrar plan" comment to say he probably meant LG's plan.
Thinks those attacking Sabrar for his lack of questions (LG) is doing it to distract. Would be inclined to agree with LG, if not for simplicity of setup. Thinks Sabrar is reacting to LG in a townie way. Wouldn't be surprised if LG vs Sabrar is town vs town. Just thought of a LG/BF/cemper scum team, as people might be trying to get Sabrar lynched. Notes that LG and flicky are only ones voting for him.
Has LG on his lynch list (along with somitomi and cemper). Doesn't explain this further.
There are two things that stand out to me in PW's posts with reference to LaserGuy. 1) As noted earlier, he has LaserGuy in his lynch list, but doesn't vote for anybody on that list - possibly an attempt at distancing, without risking lynching his own buddy. 2) He looks in depth at a number of players to try to determine their scumminess (I see big reads of BoomFrog, Sabrar, Madge/moody, flicky, somitomi, and a side comment saying that he'd look at bessie, although he never did). Note that LaserGuy is nowhere to be seen in that list, despite his scummy read of him (ditto cemper for that matter). If I was judging things based purely on PW's posts, I'd say that this is quite a clear concern. However, LaserGuy's posts lead me in the opposite direction. As well as the potential slip made by PW and brought up by LaserGuy, he was also the first one to bring up that PW posted his first post immediately before the mod-clarification on day chat. LaserGuy does subsequently vote for PW, but backs down when it's clear there isn't the appetite for lynching PW. If this wagon had originally led to PW's lynch, I'd say that this would look pretty good for LaserGuy when PW subsequently flipped. I don't see therefore why this situation is any different. That being said, his reasoning for backing down on PW seems pretty weak, given his apparent reasons for voting him.

Conclusion: LaserGuy twice brought up things that nobody else had that could raise big red flags around PW, not to mention voting him and potentially starting a wagon (there were no clear wagons at this point). This is some pretty heavy bussing, in I my opinion, if coming from scum!LaserGuy. However, it could be all a reaction to PW's play, where LG knew that he'd have to distance himself as much as possible from PW, especially given PW's side of the interactions. Overall, I think there's a chance that they are buddies, but I'm more confident in Madge and/or cemper being PW's buddies.

flicky:
Spoiler:
Posts by flicky referencing PW:
Pings PW who hadn't apparently noticed that the game had started.
First to note PW's apparent 16 hours of sleep.
Responds to PW about why scum PR claiming is a bad idea.
Points out to PW where Vicarin had previously stated his Mafia experience.
Questions PW's reference to "Sabrar's plan".
Gets annoyed at BF for responding to his question directed at PW.
Summarises PW's content as "Sabrar's plan is good", "doesn't like woofs" and meta-focused reads list. Has PW as scummy for not offering much of use, and everybody else is higher than him. Subsequently votes for his other scummy read, LG, ahead of PW however.
Says he had PW and LG as equally scummy in his scoring. Finding the unhelpfulness of PW's posts particularly strong this game. Feels like his posts were worse in a game where he was previously scum. Voted for LG ahead of PW because LG was actively working against town.
Doesn't agree with arguments against PW with reference to joke confirmations and his own joke entrance. Agrees with other points against PW (weird reads, timing of game start). Has him as lynchable, alongside LG and Madge.
Jokingly comments that PW appears to be asking to be lynched.
In response to LG, he explains that he had LG and PW in lowest spot in his scores because he could identify specific things that he disliked.
Switches vote to Peaceful Whale after deciding that LG isn't as bad. Thinks scum!PW implies town!LG.
Annoyed with PW for forgetting he was in Santa and Fridge Mafia.

PW posts referencing flicky:
Places flicky as probably town, for being super-serious, but could be dedicated scum.
In response to flicky's query about "Sabrar's plan", explains that he thinks he was referring to LG's plan, but is uncertain.
Wants to reread flicky and hasn't seen their scumminess. Admits that he should probably pay closer attention to them.
Gives detailed read of flicky. Thinks he'd give better reads, but understands where he's coming from. Encourages him to not give up. Doesn't like play style and labels as pretty scummy. Forgets that flicky has played before. Thinks him noticing the role PM inconsistency over chat looks bad. Notes that flicky caught a lot of his missteps. Unsure about how long it took him to make the reads list, finds it weird. Acknowledges his own poor posting, but says he's trying better. Thinks his towniest read on cemper is either because he's scum buddies, or simply is thinking for himself. Finds him brushing off accusations are trying not to draw attention to himself. Really doesn't like him planning to vote Madge if there's a tie, and thinks he should have voted for PW at that point, due to thinking he was more scummy himself. Thinks town!flicky would rather NL than mislynch. Has flicky as scummiest amongst {flicky, Madge, somitomi}, and would not mind his lynch.
Up until his final post, flicky was possibly the person PW commented on the least. He had flicky as town read the two times he brought this up, but did acknowledge he'd not been paying much attention to him. His big reads list concludes with the opposite opinion to his previous one, which is probably a sign that PW is trying to fit into the general direction of town opinion, especially as there really aren't any significant points that should be all that scummy in what he's highlighted as scummy. Noteworthy again is that he didn't vote for flicky despite this read (flicky was at L-3 at that point). Also noteworthy however is that he somehow forgot that he'd played with flicky before, including in the game he'd just modded. I feel like he'd be more likely to forget about a player and their background if he isn't actively working with them, so this is all leading me to feel like flicky isn't PW's buddy.

Looking at things from the other side, I think it fairly unlikely scum!flicky would have put PW as one of only two scum when he made his reads list, because it gives him nowhere easy to hide should LaserGuy become clearly town later on. Negative points though to flicky for initially choosing LG ahead of PW to vote for, although he gains these backs by being the first on the eventual PW lynch wagon (LG had already unvoted by that point). At the time of this vote, it looks like he was leading the votals, but with only 3 votes, so there was plenty of possibility of a counter-wagon starting with this vote, and I think scum!flicky would have been unlikely to bus in this way unnecessarily.

Conclusion: I don't think flicky is likely a scum buddy with PW.

I'll come back to the remaining players later, although I don't think it's all that likely that any of them are PW-buddies due to flicky not being a likely buddy.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby wam » Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:07 pm UTC

Votals
Not voting: Everyone


Sabrar wrote:Request mod-prod on cemper.


As discussed it was less than 48 hours and they have now posted

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Do scum have ability to chat at all times, i.e. both day and night?


Yes
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:29 pm UTC

So, I have finally been able to re-read most of the game. This took me the larger part of an eternity, so I'll just get straight to the point: the scum is PW-Sabrar-Flicky.

Flicky
I want to re-iterate what BoomFrog has already correctly stated yesterday, namely that claiming VT is wine and a neutral read. Everyone who doesn't see this weirds me out (see my reads on Sabrar below).

I think it's notable that PW, in his last large post here, expressed verbose town reads on both flicky and Madge. To me, that makes it appear very likely that exactly one out of [Madge, flicky] is scum. I count this against both of them. However, flicky looks a little worse here because PW explicitly said this:
PW wrote:Between flicky, Madge, and somi... Flicky is definitely the scummiest, and the most lynchable. I would not mind his lynch.
about flicky, but then never voted him. This looks like classic bussing-without-moving-the-train-along. Therefore, flicky moves up even further on my lynch list than he already was -- which was very high. However, it's understood that I will consider him to be confirmed town if Madge flips scum, because I don't think PW is stupid enough to make a huge analysis post just to become tied with both his scumbuddies.

It concerns me deeply that there appears to be a non-negligble amount of players who treat flicky like he's confirmed town today.

Sabrar
This is the hardest player to read for me. I am aware that I already flip-flopped very hard on him yesterday and got called out on my lack of consistence, but that's the price you pay for evaluating new information. Anyway.

Yesterday, when the Sabrar train was rolling, Sabrar was very sure that flicky was a mislynch (first expressed here). His reasoning was essentially that since scum would want to at least out a power role when getting lynched, flicky claiming VT makes flicky confirmed VT. This is obviously untrue because scum would realize that town would realize this as well, therefore any vanilla claim should be treated as sheer wine. Now, despite still thinking that flicky is much more likely to be scum than not, that -- despite being terrible reasoning -- could just an honest townie sucking hard at wanting to avoid a town mistake. However, there are some interactions in the context of this that just seem very weird.

For example, Sabrar was not only very sure that claiming VT made you auto-town, he also responded very agressively to anybody who disagreed:
Sabrar wrote:
cemper93 wrote:I don't have much to say anyway, I still want to lynch flicky and it appears that he's going to be lynched, therefore I'm happy.
So you don't care that he claimed vanilla?
That could just be standard Sabrar play, but it could also be scum that's saddened because its gambit didn't pay off. Then he gets even more aggressive:
Sabrar wrote:@cemper: not wine. He could have waited with the claim but he didn't. This is a mislynch.

I'm okay with either Madge or cemper as today's lynch. BoomFrog is scum if he doesn't unvote.
I get Sabrar didn't like me all day, but threatening BoomFrog for being on the flicky train like that is ridiculous. Preventing townies from lynching scum by threatening them would seem like very, very aggressive scum play, but I could just see Sabrar doing it. It's particularly interesting that Sabrar flip-flopped on BoomFrog pretty hard:
Sabrar wrote:I've decided to leave my vote on Madge and hopefully BoomFrog will bus.

So here Sabrar thinks that Madge-BF is a scum team. Then the next day:
Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Ninjad. Are you still defending Madge?
Yes. And I'm surprised you don't see it. We'll get into the details of it D2 I'm sure.
I'm listening.
Sigh... well there are two ways to do this, either you believe I'm town and trust my judgement or we just start with Madge claiming and then I'll explain.

I believe you're town and this time I don't trust your judgement.
This seems like quite the reversal of opinion to me. Granted, BF did push PW, but here's an important point: I do not consider everybody who voted for PW yesterday town, and neither should anybody else. The action shortly before the deadline was very frantic, and any of the players who switched their votes to PW so suddenly could be bussing scum. This seems to be particularly true for Sabrar, who would, if I read this game correctly, have yesterday been in the awkward position of choosing to lynch either his partner flicky or his partner PW.

This is further compounded by Sabrar throwing accusations left and right when it got closer to the deadline yesterday, as if he was frantically trying to start some kind of bandwagon. For example, he said this in response to jimbob's evaluation of me:
Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: I would be willing to go for cemper to avoid the mislynch.
To me, this reads as sheer opportunism. Note also that today Sabrar seems to have much improved his opinion of me:
Sabrar wrote:jimbob's 'case' on cemper is extremely thin, describing it as 'fair chance but not exactly hard and fast' is disingenuous.
So while yesterday, he wanted to lynch me because jimbob didn't like me, he now wants to attack jimbob because jimbob still doesn't like me. That seems off.

I also really don't like Sabrar's potential scum slip from above. Counting from the day-end post is pinging me. What's worse is that Sabrar attacked me for not posting within 18 hours since the day started, and that he really seemed to think that I had been gone for longer than that. His assertion that "18 hours is already a long time" is bogus. If not posting for 18 hours was in and of itself suspicious, we could just lynch every player in this game right now. This whole interaction just doesn't give me townie vibes.

Now, the remaining question is how Sabrar and flicky relate to PW. Jimbob has already analyzed flicky's behavior above, and while he has the facts right, I disagree with his conclusions. Flicky's reads where never very strong, and he had already said that he had a lot of "neutrals". I also disagree that flicky is town for being on the PW bandwagon, mostly because he would have gotten lynched had the bandwagon not gotten off the ground (as stated above).

For Sabrar, there's stuff like this:
Sabrar wrote:I completely agree with you about the possibility of scum!moody defending town!PW, that's why I put him lower on my list. I just highlighted the fact that if PW turns up to be scum it would drastically increase the chance of moody being one as well.

Sabrar wrote:If PW or cemper is scum te likelihood of the other being scum as well just increased by a large margin.

Which looks like prime "supply myself with lynch reasons for the rest of this game in case my mate gets found out" content to me. Other than that, he attacked PW a lot, but didn't really double down on this until shortly before deadline, where townie points where being doled out for pouncing on him.

All in all, I still think it likely that flicky is scum, and I find Sabrar to be his most likely mate. For the record, my opinion of bessie is much improved. My opinion of BoomFrog is not-so-much improved, but I don't see a valid third scumbuddy for him and therefore will consider him town unless somebody I consider town at this time flips scum.

Other stuff people asked me or I found interesting:

bessie wrote:I think there’s more to Madge’s claim than just buying time for herself. Madge is a good person and I can see her trying to protect Peaceful Whale, regardless or either of their alignments. Although in this game I am reading them as a scum team.
Do you still read them that way?

jimbob wrote:I have no idea about cemper's first game, but I could easily see that PW might have noted in scum chat that he did exactly this (played worse than he actually had), which brought the idea up in cemper's mind.
My first game was [url="http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=101040"]this one[/url]. I hope that reading it will convince you that I did need no bringing up of the idea of deliberately playing bad.

LaserGuy wrote:Madge is looking pretty bad here. The wagon on her was likely all town. She was on two wagons against townies and off-wagon on PW (though in fairness, cemper and I aren't looking too much better in this regard).
Having an all-town wagon on you doesn't make you scum, particularly on D1. Scum loves itself some all-town lynches.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:05 pm UTC

@cemper: most of your arguments boil down to "if I read the game correctly then this can be interpreted in the way I want it". You're putting the horse in front of the cart. Will reply with more detail later.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:32 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Which players in this game do you think would be likely to hard bus a relatively newbie buddy for townie credit an hour before deadline?
The list is extremely short and it contains BoomFrog.

I love the compliment, but just because I'm capable of doing to most townie thing ever and still being scum doesn't mean that this is evidence of me being scum.

Sabrar wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
bessie wrote:Why would Boom actively push for a PW lynch if Flicky was sitting at L-1 and Madge only had two votes.

For the town-credit later. He noted that he didn't think it would succeed.

Come on, I pulled off the almost lynch of Red Ryu D1 in crossover and this was an easier situation then that. All I had to do would have been let you stay on Madge and Flicky would have been lynched. Or been slower to prompt Hari to consider PW. I know any townie credit I earn is watered down by the Boomfrog effect, the gains aren't worth losing a teammate D1. (And without even getting the benifit of outing a PR).

Btw, Sabrar, why did you almost stay on Madge?

@Bessie: if Madge is town do you still think I'm scum?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:36 pm UTC

@Cemper: Have you ever played in a game where scum had day chat before?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:23 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I love the compliment, but just because I'm capable of doing to most townie thing ever and still being scum doesn't mean that this is evidence of me being scum.
It's not evidence. It just means that I can't automatically clear you like I could any other player.

BoomFrog wrote:I know any townie credit I earn is watered down by the Boomfrog effect, the gains aren't worth losing a teammate D1.
Unless you really thought it wouldn't succeed. It was entirely reasonable that we only get 4 votes at which point you would have conveniently unvoted before deadline to avoid NL.

BoomFrog wrote:Btw, Sabrar, why did you almost stay on Madge?
You moved off cemper and I had less confidence in PW.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby somitomi » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:55 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:On the opposite end of this, I think both Madge and Moody aligned themselves too closely with him to likely be his partner. Madge hard defended PW in the midst of him being bombessied and continued to defend and buddy through to the end of the day. And Moody did not falter at all here when called out by Sabrar. That does not feel like the reaction of a partner. Mafia in general are inclined to disassociate themselves with each other, and I think this to be even more so in PW's case, who again is very lynchable, and very easy to claim suspicions on without anyone thinking it unnatural.

I think that could be wine though, because you wouldn't expect mafia to put down a solid "town" read on their buddies or defend them the way Madge did with PW. I might be overthinking it, but I feel like a more experienced player might consider such doublethink.
cemper93 wrote:I think it's notable that PW, in his last large post here, expressed verbose town reads on both flicky and Madge. To me, that makes it appear very likely that exactly one out of [Madge, flicky] is scum.

I don't see that post saying flicky is town, just calls him "weird" a couple times and points out a couple scummy things.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:56 pm UTC

Time to finish off those analyses. I'm not going to bother with somitomi - he's confirmed town, or some townie decided to throw the game by not counter-claiming. That leaves BoomFrog, Sabrar, and Hari Seldon still to look at. In no particular order, here goes:

BoomFrog:
Spoiler:
Posts by BoomFrog about PW:
First post referencing PW is his list (filled with woofs), where he is bang in the middle of the list. This was the only woof post that referenced PW.
References Sabrar's point about moody's bad read of PW.
Answers flicky's question regarding PW's "Sabrar's plan" mistake, as getting confused with LG. Does not immediately state what he thinks about the alignment implications. Later apologises for answering.
Puts Peaceful Whale in his own category when analysing reactions to woofs. Doesn't think PW would have excluded town plausibilities if he were scum in stream of consciousness thoughts, and awards him townie points for natural reactions.
Explains to bessie that he assumed moody's joke comment about day vigs was moody thinking that somitomi was joking about PW.
Advises PW and flicky that he doesn't need to do lots of typing, if it's not helping.
Doesn't like bessie's ongoing concerns about PW timing, which should have just been a few scum points, before moving on.
Has PW in his bottom 5.
Would prefer PW instead of cemper (who he switches his vote to), but cemper is better than Madge.
States that PW is as equally viable a candidate as cemper.
Switches vote to PW, encouraging bessie to do the same, as he's a better shot than flicky.
Points out to Sabrar that voting Madge is effectively voting flicky, and encourages him to switch, along with Hari.
Promises to be online to prevent No Lynch.
Doesn't think PW's lynch is going to happen.
Repeats his call to bessie to vote PW. Says the same to me in his next post.
Enjoyed the wagon and hopes flicky is town.

PW posts referencing BoomFrog:
Meows in response to BoomFrog (repeats this several times).
Jokes that BF, bessie, and he are day vigs.
Scared by all the woofs.
Wonders if BF has done anything other than bark.
Stream of consciousness musing about why BF is barking. Doesn't reference being a townie as an option, as pointed out by BF.
Points out that BF joke confirmed and then does a post-by-post breakdown of BF's woofs, trying to interpret their meaning. Suggests it should count as active lurking, but notes various opinions he's voicing along the way. Puts him in the town category, and thinks he agrees with most of what he has woofed, but finds woofs annoying still.
Can see where BF is coming from with regards to Sabrar.
Thanks BF for answering for him.
Thinks the way Sabrar is not jumping on BF is townie. Thought of a LG/BF/cemper scum team, due to how Sabrar has been butting heads with them.
The most obvious thing that stands out to me is the interaction between PW and BF over the woofing. I can't believe that BF would not brief his buddies on what he's doing, and PW's reaction seems to be a genuinely confused reaction, at least initially. Elsewhere, BF barely explains why he found PW scummy, but does lead the charge on trying to get PW lynched instead of flicky, including encouraging myself, Sabrar, and bessie in particular to vote for PW. The only way here that BF makes sense as PW's buddy is if flicky is the third scum member. I don't think he'd have pushed so hard for PW's lynch. I certainly could see him mildly pushing, but not to the extent he did.

Conclusion: BoomFrog can only be Peaceful Whale's buddy if flicky is as well, and even then, I have significant doubts, due to the early interactions between them.

Sabrar:
Spoiler:
Posts by Sabrar regarding PW:
Asks PW if he's got any actual opinions on the other players.
Doesn't like PW, finding his reaction to the day vig comment interesting.
Thinks that if PW is scum, moody's a likely buddy.
Has PW second-scummiest behind moody in his ordered list.
States moody's read of PW as "just wrong".
Asks PW to explain where BF is coming from in his own words.
Explains that his issue with moody's read is to do with him not voting PW for his "other content".Explains that he put moody below PW, because he could see scum!moody defending town!PW.
Has no way of reading PW if he's town, saying there are too many things off in PW's post-by-post read of him.
Asks me to explain my read of moody on PW.
States that if PW or cemper is scum, the chances of the other being scum too increased by a large margin - referencing cemper's investigation comments.
Has PW in his lynch list.
Can compromise to PW if absolutely necessary, instead of cemper.
Looks at who could be persuaded to switch to PW.
Switches vote to PW after being persuaded.
Asks for someone else to vote PW.
Suggests to BF that the PW wagon is too easy.

PW posts referencing Sabrar:
Sabrar's plan is pretty solid (referencing PR claiming).
Surprised that Sabrar has two votes. Thinks he may appear more scummy after reread. Pretty sure Sabrar is town after opening post. Thinks scum!Sabrar would joke. Also surprised that Sabrar didn't elaborate more on LG's plan.
Seems to agree with BF's vote on Sabrar for something "that does feel a little off". Also notes his unvote, and says he's "beginning to see why". Doesn't think BF is buddies with Sabrar, due to his pushing for Sabrar to be lynched.
Promises to re-read Sabrar, to get a better feel for him.
Thinks he previously meant to refer to LG's plan, but is uncertain as he reads Sabrar's post. Agrees with Sabrar's proposed plan. Sabrar is looking townie, points against him are meta.
Posts read of Sabrar. Feels like Sabrar would have agreed with an anti-town plan re. PR-claiming schemes. Thinks LG is pouncing on Sabrar over rules questions to distract people. Thinks scum Sabrar would try harder and not defend himself. Wouldn't be surprised if LG v Sabrar is town v town. Not jumping on BF seems townie, saying that scum would be more likely to lynch him on policy. Notes his butting heads, and thinks others might be trying to get him lynched. Wants to place him as town, but thinks he's not normal Sabrar. On his "do not lynch right now" list.
I think that there's definitely a small chance of Sabrar being scum-buddies with Peaceful Whale, even if flicky isn't scum. He was quite reluctant to switch votes to the PW wagon, when asked to do so, although he did eventually switch, which is still beneficial. I think this is more likely to have happened if flicky is also scum though (and I certainly can see a Sabrar/flicky scum team as plausible, ignoring other reads, due to the points that cemper recently brought up). Earlier in the day, Sabrar consistently had PW as scum, which makes his reluctance to switch all the more surprising. Meanwhile, PW's thoughts on Sabrar seem all over the place, but in general, he seems to view him as town. The fact that he commented on Sabrar as much as he did, including being only the second significant read he gave does sound good for Sabrar, but at the same time, I could easily see a scum buddy (e.g. Sabrar) saying that he should analyse him next.

Finally, Hari Seldon:
Spoiler:
Posts by Hari referencing PW:
Responds to PW's question about his numbers and signs. Also offers to explain further, if needed.Thinks PW's question towards Vicarin is rather spontaneous, and gets a partner vibe from it.
Acknowledges LG's point about his PW comments, and states that he's being intentionally reserved towards PW, saying he wants to give him room to play.
Encourages PW to continue to make analysis posts, like he did on BF. Thinks the typing helps PW think. Questions a point made by somitomi about PW.
Notes PW's stance supporting No Lynch.
Advises PW to not try to worry about looking so townie, but also to think a little more about what he posts. Asks bessie, somitomi and me what we think about the PW slip, LG pointed out.
In his ordered list has PW fairly townie. Explains reason for asking about PW slip. Finds it baffling that LG found it suspicious.
Considers PW vs flicky lynch.
Brings up NL again as a suggestion instead of PW/flicky.
Votes PW more out of hope of no lynching.

PW posts referencing Hari Seldon:
Hasn't seen much of HS in the thread.
Notes Hari's numbers posts, and asks about the equal signs.
Thanks Hari for the clarification.

... and that's it!
I don't know if it's because Hari Seldon didn't post all that frequently, but PW said almost nothing about him all D1 - the only things he said were his low early content, and asking him a question for clarification about his numbers post. Meanwhile, Hari has self-admittedly kept back from attacking Peaceful Whale, only mentioning him once briefly in his numbers posts. He puts PW as fairly townie, and defends the PW slip, pointing out that PW has been mislynched before for similar. When considering who to vote for near day end, he actively tries to promote No Lynch again, despite it having died a death, and votes for PW, not to try to get him lynched, but in the hope of No Lynch. This is all rather suspicious. If flicky is scum, there is a VERY high chance of Hari Seldon being a buddy, since that would explain his push for no lynch. That being said, it feels like a bit of a stretch for scum!Hari to tie himself to both his buddies like that, so I'm probably wrong here. Could Hari be scum buddies with PW without flicky being scum? I'm not sure, but I doubt it. I don't think Hari would have lynched a buddy unnecessarily, when he could have probably justified voting flicky.

Grand conclusion - list is ordered from town to scum, based purely on likelihood of being PW's buddy. I will do general-purpose reads tomorrow (and possibly into Monday) to finalise an ordered list:

Town
somitomi
BoomFrog
bessie
Hari Seldon
flicky
Sabrar
LaserGuy
cemper
Madge
Scum
BlitzGirl the Primordial
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:06 pm UTC

Following are quotes where cemper does not say what's scummy, he just explains how certain posts can be fit into his preconceived narrative.
cemper93 wrote:- That could just be standard Sabrar play, but it could also be scum that's saddened because its gambit didn't pay off.
- Preventing townies from lynching scum by threatening them would seem like very, very aggressive scum play, but I could just see Sabrar doing it.
- This seems to be particularly true for Sabrar, who would, if I read this game correctly, have yesterday been in the awkward position of choosing to lynch either his partner flicky or his partner PW.
- Other than that, he attacked PW a lot, but didn't really double down on this until shortly before deadline, where townie points where being doled out for pouncing on him.


cemper93 wrote:This is obviously untrue because scum would realize that town would realize this as well,
I disagree. Scum has ab ovo the correct pov to think about this, town does not.
cemper93 wrote:For example, Sabrar was not only very sure that claiming VT made you auto-town,
Untrue, it was just the main reason. I never considered flicky to be scummy in the first place.
cemper93 wrote:I am aware that I already flip-flopped very hard on him yesterday and got called out on my lack of consistence, but that's the price you pay for evaluating new information.
cemper93 wrote:So here Sabrar thinks that Madge-BF is a scum team. Then the next day:
...
This seems like quite the reversal of opinion to me.
This is double standard. Yes, I'm flip-flopping wrt BoomFrog just like you did wrt me.
cemper93 wrote:So while yesterday, he wanted to lynch me because jimbob didn't like me, he now wants to attack jimbob because jimbob still doesn't like me. That seems off.
No, this just means that I'm not claiming to have solved the game and am willing to consider multiple possibilities.
cemper93 wrote:Note also that today Sabrar seems to have much improved his opinion of me
Untrue. Me finding jimbob's content suspicious does not mean I consider you townie at all.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:10 pm UTC

Thanks somitomi for reminding me that I wanted to reply to this.
Hari Seldon wrote:And Moody did not falter at all here when called out by Sabrar.
moody didn't understand what my issue was.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:11 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Btw, Sabrar, why did you almost stay on Madge?
You moved off cemper and I had less confidence in PW.

That doesn't make sense. Did you really think your "maybe Boomfrog will decide to bus" comment would get me to vote Madge?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:14 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:That doesn't make sense. Did you really think your "maybe Boomfrog will decide to bus" comment would get me to vote Madge?
I thought it would provoke a reaction.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:42 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:That doesn't make sense. Did you really think your "maybe Boomfrog will decide to bus" comment would get me to vote Madge?
I thought it would provoke a reaction.

Did you vote for Madge to provoke a reaction or because you thought it was the best chance of not lynching flicky?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:45 pm UTC

The latter.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:29 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:He started the day strong, then hung back (which was fine), then... kept hanging back. He didn't form any strong opinions or try and influence others. He stayed in data gathering mode when it was time for action.
I think he was less active towards day-end but I don't think he avoided giving opinions.

He gave opinions, but he didn't drive anything. I'm not saying everyone needs to drive town, but he was too laid back about it.
Funny, my main argument against LaserGuy was based on the content he did provide earlier. If I only had his late-D1 content, I think I'd have had him as a neutral read. I don't think he's scummy any more anyway because even before I knew PW was scum I considered a PW/LaserGuy scum team to be impossible.
somitomi wrote:Some of both Madge's and PW's posts give me the feel of some "camaraderie" between them, although that might be due to their similar playstyle.
What do you see as similar about their playstyles?
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@bessie: you misinterpreted the question (and I must agree with BoomFrog, this feels deliberate) and then you ignored it completely. Why?
How did I ignore it? I answered the question.
Saying something like "unchanged from here[link]" would have been an answer. Saying "How did you miss this[link]?" as if it should have been obvious to everyone else that it was unchanged is just randomly hostile for no reason.
bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote: Talk to me about this. You spent most of D1 implicitly reading PW as scum and using that read to motivate your scumreads on Madge/somitomi. Why were you so busy hunting for his buddies? If you had such a strong scumread on PW, why didn't you ever vote for him?
My evaluation was that if Peaceful Whale was scum, he would be fairly obvious, so if there is another fairly strong candidate, it would make sense to leave the obvious candidate for later.
Explain this logic? One less scum is always good.
Sabrar wrote:I think this is Crossover!LaserGuy
Context for those of us that don't want to read through another game? (The longest on the forum, I believe?)
Sabrar wrote:Please tell me how you plan to catch scum if everybody posts jusg once a day?
The rules literally say "One post per real-life day is the recommended minimum". You can't blame someone for not being able to devote as much time as you to the game.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I thought moody's comments were reasonable, especially given I had a town read of PW at the time. [...] I probably should have looked at it from both town!PW and scum!PW angles, given I didn't know or even have a strong read of PW's alignment.
Isn't that self-contradictory?
cemper93 wrote:It concerns me deeply that there appears to be a non-negligble amount of players who treat flicky like he's confirmed town today.
It doesn't bother me at all. :P
somitomi wrote:
cemper93 wrote:I think it's notable that PW, in his last large post here, expressed verbose town reads on both flicky and Madge. To me, that makes it appear very likely that exactly one out of [Madge, flicky] is scum.

I don't see that post saying flicky is town, just calls him "weird" a couple times and points out a couple scummy things.
I didn't notice cemper said "verbose town reads". Yeah, Whale definitely wasn't saying he read me as town.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The only way here that BF makes sense as PW's buddy is if flicky is the third scum member.
That would have been a pretty extreme bus. We were the first two on that wagon.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:47 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I think this is Crossover!LaserGuy
Context for those of us that don't want to read through another game?
Town with bad reads.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:48 pm UTC

I see.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:16 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@Cemper: Have you ever played in a game where scum had day chat before?
I actually don't recall. Is there a specific reason you're asking?

somitomi wrote:I don't see that post saying flicky is town, just calls him "weird" a couple times and points out a couple scummy things.
You made me go back and re-read the post. I have to admit I don't speak Whale, but I disagree with you on what PW said (or at least, on what PW thought he was saying, which is the relevant thing). So, for an experiment in exegesis, let's take the post apart paragraph-by-paragraph and try to guess whether PW thought that he was expressing an opinion on flicky. Spoilered for length.
Spoiler:
PeacefulWhale wrote:Verdict: Weird flicky.
I’d think he’d give better reads than this, but I think I understand where he’s coming from.
Flicky is normally gracing forum games, namely ones where you just post, he’s used to um... bird poop posting. I think mafia has kinda worn him down... Please flicky! Don’t give up! We love you!
Other than that, I don’t like his play style, it’s pretty scummy.
So, here we have PW excusing flicky's behaviour (one can understand where flicky is coming from, he's just used to bad posting, mafia has worn him down...). This reads a lot like something intended to influence townies. Then PW immediately distances himself from what he just said.

PeacefulWhale wrote:I’ve already mentioned how he’s more serious than he is normally in forum games... don’t believe he’s played mafia before.
He notices that the role PM says scum have night chat, and the rules have day chat... others have pointed out how this looks bad.
(Thanks for quoting me so I could find the thread easily)
I pooooosted soon after, and foolishly believed the game had started not that long ago...
I also noticed that it does not appear that I realized what scum counter claiming was such a bad idea... (when the real PR is lynched, they’re going to die...)
I feel like I’ve changed a lot since I started posting...
"Flicky hasn't played mafia before" is another attempt at excusing his play, followed by yet another excuse, this time for flicky's misunderstanding of the game rules. PW is essentially saying that he, too, made a stupid noobie mistake, and weren't we all once young?

Peaceful Whale wrote:Wow, he’s caught a lot of my missteps, which are to be expected with my meta... (what’s my meta?)
"Look, flicky is super valuable for town, he even bussed me!"

Peaceful Whale wrote:The thing I’m kinda iffy on is how long it took for his reads list... but idk how fast he types and stuff...
Not really scummy, just kinda weird. Who am I to judge though? I’m really weird...
"Not really scummy, just weird!"

Peaceful Whale wrote:Says he’s got me as scum because my posts are worse... :cry: that’s okay though, they really haven’t been at good. I’m trying better now.
He’s got Cemper as his towniest read... this goes against what a lot of other people have thunked. It shows that either: A: he’s scum buddies with him or B: he’s actually think for himself and not snipping stuff from others like I’m infamous for.
"Hey, you townies? A: When you lynch my buddy later, please remember that him flipping scum totally confirms that cemper is scum too. But B: flicky is actually a super good town player and you shouldn't lynch him to begin with."

Peaceful Whale wrote:He wants a lazerguy, Madge, or me lynch.

Overall he’s kinda stuck to his original reads which appear to be based more on gut instinct than anything else, and what he can remember.
He’s brushed off most accusations against him. It makes me wonder if he’s trying not to draw attention to them, as it could make him look scummier...
More of "flicky is a consistent and therefore good town player", in conjunction with more distancing.

Peaceful Whale wrote:I don’t like this post either...
flicky1991 wrote:I would consider changing my vote to Madge if there's still a tie and deadline is close, since I don't want a No Lynch.
I don’t really like this, I think this came after he should have stopped thinking of Madge as scummy, and thought I was more scummy...(I don’t know how to explain this better)
I feel like town!flicky would rather NL than a mislynch. However I dont know what he was thinking at the time of this post... hopefully he thought Madge was scum.
Here Peaceful Whale appears to attack flicky for not wanting to lynch Peaceful Whale over Madge. Unlike the other scum reads in this post, this one isn't so weak and actually points out an inconsistency in flicky's play. It is then followed by a deliberate softening of the attack -- "hopefully [flicky] thought [the townie thing to think]". I wouldn't rule out that somebody -- most likely Sabrar, being the most experienced in the team -- noticed the inconsistency in flicky's play, brought it up in scum chat and urged PW to call flicky out on it before anybody else did, well knowing that any point PW brings up is going to be discarded by town anyway. Alternatively, this might also just be an attempt by PW to appear as scumhunting.

Peaceful Whale wrote:(Done with reads)

(Closing paragraph)

Ok... thats done... I’m glad I was able to basically trash me somi read...

Given as there’s no time to reread everyone, and NL isn’t an option...
Between flicky, Madge, and somi... Flicky is definitely the scummiest, and the most lynchable. I would not mind his lynch.
"Now that I've explained how I didn't consider flicky scum, I still consider him the most scummy of any players. Note that this isn't a hard commitment, and when I finally get around to re-reading, I'm going to completely throw it out of the window."
As you can see, this isn't quite a town read, but it's not very much unlike a town read either. Based on the proportion of contents in this post, I do believe that Peaceful Whale had intended to give a lengthy town reading of flicky here, while at the same time wanting to appear as distant from him as possible.

Sabrar wrote:
cemper93 wrote:This is obviously untrue because scum would realize that town would realize this as well,
I disagree. Scum has ab ovo the correct pov to think about this, town does not.
But you thought of it. Therefore, you're scum?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:21 pm UTC

Nope, I'm just good with game theory.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:04 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:"Flicky hasn't played mafia before" is another attempt at excusing his play, followed by yet another excuse, this time for flicky's misunderstanding of the game rules. PW is essentially saying that he, too, made a stupid noobie mistake, and weren't we all once young?
And then PW is immediately contradicted by flicky who reminds PW that they even played together. Talk me through the evolution of this particular interaction after they talked in scum-chat.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:06 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I understand it, it's still not helpful. And you could have come back to it later after you had the time to analyze.
I’ve been thinking about this, and it’s pinging me slightly. I'm not sure what to make of it yet, maybe nothing but I'm noting it.

Timeline (times are adjusted for my time zone).
Spoiler:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:57 am Link.
Bessie’s final D1 post with updated town-scum list.

Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:00 amLink.
Deadline.

Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:50 am Link.
D2 Start.

Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:28 pm Link.
BoomFrog requests bottom four from Bessie, LaserGuy, Cemper, Madge.

[Note: why these four? It seems that only jimbob and LaserGuy were clear on their bottom four at this point. ]

Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:41 pm Link.
bessie responds that her list has not changed (albeit in a sarcastic way).

Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:42 pm Link.
BoomFrog calls out bessie for not making completely new list, not taking into account that perhaps at the time she made her list, her town-scum order had not changed.

Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:49 am Link.
Sabrar decides to get in on this.

Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:28 pm Link.
bessie responds to Sabrar. Reads hadn’t changed between what were for bessie two consecutive posts.

Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:32 pm Link.
Sabrar responds to bessie, reads list should have been updated (disagree that I needed to produce a completely new reads list at that point), or explicitly explain that it was unchanged.

Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:48 pm Link.
bessie responds to Sabrar. Sorry I thought my intent was clear [/sarcasm].

Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:50 pm Link.
Sabrar still finds bessie’s failure to produce a new reads list unacceptable.

Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:04 am Link.
bessie posts updated list which is quite similar to old list. Still analyzing.

LaserGuy wrote:I don't think Peaceful Whale was around in any game where you've actually did this as Town, and in Secret Santa it was barely mentioned. Yes, he admitted to copying people that he found townie... that's why I find this so interesting. There isn't really a good reason for him to have chosen this particular aspect of your meta as something to copy, rather than something more obviously townie-looking, like say, your tunneling or general posting style. I think it's more likely that rather than him copying you from Secret Santa, a well meaning scumbuddy was trying to give him advice in scumchat,

Peaceful Whale has been reading old games.
Peaceful Whale wrote: If she’s scum, I bet she’s developed a pretty good plan. (I looked back at (smallville?) and saw the ending, where she apparently played a pretty mean scum. Mean as in smart/strong/very good)

Hmm, why read that game? It was referred to and linked to by me in this game. So was Shakespeare, in this post.

Some relevant quotes from PAGE 1 of Shakespeare:
Spoiler:
http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4196241#p4196241
Sabrar wrote:On a really serious note I'm eagerly awaiting bessie's analysis on DGames, LaserGuy, SDK, YOLOSWAG and Znirk.


http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4196313#p4196313
LaserGuy wrote:Third, I am further suspicious of this matter because I rather suspect that Sabrar was referring to bessie's well-known proclivity to analyse confirmation posts for scum, not in fact due to a confirmation of bessie's townie status. I am eager of the opinion that Sabrar has more tact.

LaserGuy wrote:I wasn't asking about end of day. I was asking about all of D1. Also... why would you think that it would be obvious if he were scum? In his only previous game as mafia he was consistently townread throughout the entire game, whereas he has been mislynched or at least lynchbait every game where he's been Town.

I think you’re misreading the end of Refrigerator. There was some PoE, but scumslips were easier to find in late game analysis.

LaserGuy wrote:This is a very strange comment. I never mentioned you giving him advice one way or the other. I'm scumreading you because you were making an associative scumread on somitomi/Madge that only makes sense if you are also scumreading PW. If PW had been Town and somitomi/Madge had been defending him over sleepgate, there wouldn't be any particular reason this would imply they were mafia, even if they were misunderstanding your argument. PW was already scum in your mind when you were discussing this with somi/Madge.
I don’t think my comment and train of thought flows unnaturally from your request to “talk to me about this”.

LaserGuy wrote:Talk to me about this. You spent most of D1 implicitly reading PW as scum and using that read to motivate your scumreads on Madge/somitomi. Why were you so busy hunting for his buddies? If you had such a strong scumread on PW, why didn't you ever vote for him?
Already answered, and quoted and commented on by you so I know you read it:
bessie wrote:My evaluation was that if Peaceful Whale was scum, he would be fairly obvious, so if there is another fairly strong candidate, it would make sense to leave the obvious candidate for later. Also, I don’t think that Peaceful Whale would be as dangerous to leave alive as say, scum!Madge.


LaserGuy wrote:Which players in this game do you think would be likely to hard bus a relatively newbie buddy for townie credit an hour before deadline? The deadline was at 2:00PM Eastern, btw, so PW may well have been in school for the lynch and whomever you are accusing of this may not have even been able to consult with him.
Interesting. Why do you think the only reason to bus a scum partner would be for town cred?

LaserGuy wrote:What do you think of my comments regarding moody?

Refer to comments in this post.
LaserGuy wrote:moody's defense of PW feels... uncharacteristic of scum!moody to me. In the two games I've played before where he was mafia (Hallowe'en and Crossover), he basically ignored his buddy the whole game. Actually, looking at some previous games post-by-post analysis like this this is something moody does as Town (Fridge, several other examples in that game) (Secret Santa, multiple examples again). I can't find an example of him doing this as scum (he doesn't do this in Crossover, Hallowe'en, or when he replaced in X-Men). I think this is Town!moody/Madge.


Scum moody post-by-post analysis in Monstrous Masquerade Mafia.
Town moody post-by-post analysis in Doctor Who Mafia.

I think your meta read that moody only does post-by-post analysis as town is incorrect.

LaserGuy wrote:More generally, why haven't you ever ask me questions about my reads this game? I was surprised that you didn't find it suspicious/unusual/noteworthy that I've mostly been posting player alignment reads without commentary.
I don’t sit here all day and respond to content as it is posted. Usually by the time I get home and start responding, there has already been quite a bit of back-and-forth between players. If I didn’t comment on anything you said specifically, perhaps it was because someone else already had.

Hari Seldon wrote:Yes, I understand what you're getting at. But why do so if there is a Town alternative? Why would Boom actively push for a PW lynch if Flicky was sitting at L-1 and Madge only had two votes. If anything, he could have just not posted at all. But he was actively against lynching Flicky.
Perhaps he was afraid the lynch wagon would swing back to Madge.

Sabrar wrote:I think this is Crossover!LaserGuy
I think this is Shakespeare!LaserGuy.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sorry if my opinion changed given new evidence.
Interesting, as Sabrar is calling me out for not considering new evidence [/sarcasm].

cemper93 wrote:This seems like quite the reversal of opinion to me. Granted, BF did push PW, but here's an important point: I do not consider everybody who voted for PW yesterday town, and neither should anybody else. The action shortly before the deadline was very frantic, and any of the players who switched their votes to PW so suddenly could be bussing scum. This seems to be particularly true for Sabrar, who would, if I read this game correctly, have yesterday been in the awkward position of choosing to lynch either his partner flicky or his partner PW.
Agree. I don’t like how jimbob and LaserGuy have been pushing PW voters= confirmed town.

BoomFrog wrote: @Bessie: if Madge is town do you still think I'm scum?
I am thinking about this.

flicky1991 wrote:
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@bessie: you misinterpreted the question (and I must agree with BoomFrog, this feels deliberate) and then you ignored it completely. Why?
How did I ignore it? I answered the question.
Saying something like "unchanged from here[link]" would have been an answer. Saying "How did you miss this[link]?" as if it should have been obvious to everyone else that it was unchanged is just randomly hostile for no reason.
Already answered.

flicky1991 wrote:
bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote: Talk to me about this. You spent most of D1 implicitly reading PW as scum and using that read to motivate your scumreads on Madge/somitomi. Why were you so busy hunting for his buddies? If you had such a strong scumread on PW, why didn't you ever vote for him?
My evaluation was that if Peaceful Whale was scum, he would be fairly obvious, so if there is another fairly strong candidate, it would make sense to leave the obvious candidate for later.
Explain this logic? One less scum is always good.
The idea would be to save obviscum for later when a mislynch can lose the g a m e for town. There’s been a bit of discussion about this strategy the past, but I’m not recalling where, so it may be from quite long ago before I was playing and was still lurking.

Also, why did you selectively quote me?
bessie wrote:My evaluation was that if Peaceful Whale was scum, he would be fairly obvious, so if there is another fairly strong candidate, it would make sense to leave the obvious candidate for later. Also, I don’t think that Peaceful Whale would be as dangerous to leave alive as say, scum!Madge.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:21 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
cemper93 wrote:This is obviously untrue because scum would realize that town would realize this as well,
I disagree. Scum has ab ovo the correct pov to think about this, town does not.
But you thought of it. Therefore, you're scum?
Is this your only reply to my post?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby somitomi » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:22 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:What do you see as similar about their playstyles?

The stream-of-consciousness writing.
cemper93 wrote:You made me go back and re-read the post. I have to admit I don't speak Whale, but I disagree with you on what PW said (or at least, on what PW thought he was saying, which is the relevant thing). So, for an experiment in exegesis, let's take the post apart paragraph-by-paragraph and try to guess whether PW thought that he was expressing an opinion on flicky. Spoilered for length.

I don't claim to be an expert in deciphering PWs posts either, but I still don't really see this as a clear town read, especially when compared to the Madge-part of the same post. I see what you mean though, PW analysed only three people in such detail (Sabrar, Madge and flicky) and two of those boil down to "town-ish".
cemper93 wrote:"Flicky hasn't played mafia before" is another attempt at excusing his play, followed by yet another excuse, this time for flicky's misunderstanding of the game rules.

If you're referring to the day chat/night chat question, flicky didn't misunderstand anything there.

Ninja'd by bessie & Sabrar
"It's like he's his own alt account. Saves all the logging in and out"
they/them/theirs = he/him/his ❖ If you want to use something else out of dadaist spite, I won't mind.
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Peaceful Whale wrote:Stop quoting me!

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:22 pm UTC

bessie wrote:I think this is Shakespeare!LaserGuy.
How can it be if scum is Madge + BoomFrog?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:40 pm UTC

It can’t. I have been pondering LaserGuy + jimbobmacdoodle, see this post.

Also, I am not stuck on “if Madge is scum, BoomFrog must be scum”. I may appear stubborn, but I’m not overly confident that I am always correct about everything, and I’m willing to reevaluate earlier opinions. I just don’t/can’t do it instantaneously. I need to ponder.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:19 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:
bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote: Talk to me about this. You spent most of D1 implicitly reading PW as scum and using that read to motivate your scumreads on Madge/somitomi. Why were you so busy hunting for his buddies? If you had such a strong scumread on PW, why didn't you ever vote for him?
My evaluation was that if Peaceful Whale was scum, he would be fairly obvious, so if there is another fairly strong candidate, it would make sense to leave the obvious candidate for later.
Explain this logic? One less scum is always good.
The idea would be to save obviscum for later when a mislynch can lose the g a m e for town. There’s been a bit of discussion about this strategy the past, but I’m not recalling where, so it may be from quite long ago before I was playing and was still lurking.


Just want to go on board and say this is a terrible strategy. If the person is actually scum, then scum gets to say things that will subconsciously influence other players, scum gets to attempt to make people town read them and thus save themselves, scum gets to chat with and advise their scumbuddy (even if PW is less experienced than say Sabrar, that doesn't mean PW might not notice something Sabrar misses or have a different perspective that helps Sabrar click something into place). If the person is town... well, I'm at the top of peoples' scum lists and I'm town, so if you decided to use that plan on me, you'd look for people linking themselves to me or something and waste all that time and effort while people aren't mentally focusing on real scum. Yeah I know IRL people aren't going to ignore other peoples' scumslips and we'll have results to base it on / etc so it's not actually a case of laser focus but STILL. I am really extremely against this "save scum for later" approach it boggles the mind that people would like it :shock:.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:32 pm UTC

Madge, you conveniently skipped the part that said “fairly strong candidate”. You’re omitting that I was reading you very strongly as scum, almost obviscum. This was not a case of me voting for a scum ping over a strong read.

Madge wrote:If the person is actually scum, then scum gets to say things that will subconsciously influence other players, scum gets to attempt to make people town read them and thus save themselves,

Like you’re doing now?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:33 pm UTC

What are you going to say when I flip town? :roll:
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