Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

For your simulated organized crime needs.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:12 pm UTC

:D No night kills! Everyone's overpowered abilities must be cancelling each other out! :P

OK, I was right to suspect Dj - nice to know.

Who does this exonerate/implicate? I'd really like to be able to say everyone who voted Dj is not mafia (for obvious reasons), but I won't take that as read. (Although I see Sabrar has got in before me and essentially said we can for now.)

Djehutynakht wrote:Therefore I think I'd have to go with Madge or Emlightened; I'm leaning a bit toward Emlightened because the more I look into her play the more it's really starting to get me suspicious.

I'd almost be willing to say that Madge and Emlightened were a scumteam (explaining Emlightened's no-explanation vote on me; the delay until the final moments to avoid appearances of buddying). But that's almost too good to be true. Part of me suspects Emlightened could be a malevolent independent; the gameplay sort of seems that way.

There's no way Dj would have said any of that if they were his fellow mafia unless he was certain he was going to be lynched (which certainly wasn't true), right? This could be confirmation bias (I want to know that those who voted for him aren't mafia and here he is accusing two of them), but he's the only person whose posts have gained any new meaning as of this point, and accusing his own teammates just wouldn't have been advantageous to him at the stage where he was writing that stuff.

Sabrar wrote:apparently we have no SK

I want to be careful about assuming things like this - when everyone has multiple (or overly powerful) abilities, two night-kills being blocked isn't unfeasible.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby mpolo » Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:26 pm UTC

DJ was my penpal. And my power is not nearly as awesome as his… While he was alive, I was a standard watcher. Now I can watch myself. No one visited me today. I'm going to check DJ's penpal correspondence to see if there's anything worth sharing, but I don't think he really got into revealing anything, despite 2-3 long messages.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:31 pm UTC

Rereading Carlington, noticed this:
Carlington wrote:I want to go and squint a bit at Dj and dimochka, potentially also Madge depending on whether I end up agreeing with Dj or not but I don't have a scummy impression from her.

Carlington wrote:Madge reads the closest I have to scum

Between these posts nothing was mentioned about Madge that could have influenced you. Care to explain?

dimochka: could have saved Dj by voting for Madge but that would have looked suspicious if she flips Town, especially after he mentions that he'd rather vote for Dj. Could have also hoped that random flip would go in their favor without any risk from himself. Would not clear him just because of voting history.

jimbobmacdoodle: given Dj's flip his initial readlist looks very interesting. He votes for Madge pending further content from her and Dj. Does not comment about Dj later, the justification of his vote on Madge could be honest. Unfortunately has no content during the end of D1. Neutral for now.

@mpolo: please react to this.

@flicky:
- if by any chance we had 3 scum (Dj, emlightened, Madge) then after how D1 turned out it could have been the intelligent play to bus each other hard, trying to exonerate the other 2. But I don't think this is the case.
- regarding SK: at first glance I thought that it would be very unlikely that 2 kills would be blocked and was willing to assume that the easier explanation (no SK) is the correct one. On the other hand I've just thought of a possibility that would make it more likely than I originally imagined, so I won't discard that scenario. Luckily we probably don't have to worry about it during D2 and probably will have even more info about the setup tomorrow.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby mpolo » Sat Jun 11, 2016 5:31 pm UTC

I must have counted the votes wrong — I thought I was breaking a tie when I voted. Obviously my preference was to not lose my power, as the current configuration leaves me as close to vanilla as is possible while still having a meaningful power. I mean, it's pretty useless for scumhunting now.

The whole "exchange that didn't really happen" because it was after deadline is intriguing. If both Madge and Djehutynakht were scum, that would have taken place in PM, unless I was right before that scum had no daychat. Which would tend to count in Madge's favor.

Looking back at DJ's chats, there was more fluff than substance. He commented a couple of times in two letters about penpal pairs that were town-scum, which might have been a slight tell in retrospect. He said that two scum was a good bet, though he considered it an awkward number. He was trying to turn me specifically against Madge in one message. Which also counts in Madge's favor.

The fact that he was so willing to vote emlightened would tend to be a point in emlightened's favor as well (trading a 50% scum lynch for a 66.6% scum lynch makes no sense). If both Madge and DJ are scum, there would obviously be motive for this (33% scum lynch instead of 100%). On the whole, however, I think Madge and emlightened are likely town at this point.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jun 11, 2016 5:41 pm UTC

At the risk of over-analysing, knowing Dj's status as mafia has made me start trying to work out what he was trying to do at some points.

Djehutynakht wrote:Even if pen pals were randomly assigned, by the common sense of mod discretion we can probably assume that mafia aren't pen pals with each other; that'd just be a waste of game concept.
It was assumed he misunderstood the set up, but if Mafia have day chat then maybe he already knew two mafia were paired?
Djehutynakht wrote:And I'm still not entirely sure that the game would do a mafia-mafia pairing, despite the rules.
...I mean, how else do you interpret that?


Additional note: first person in the whole thread to call out Dj for lurking was emlightened. I can understand scum accusing scum if they're piling on a bandwagon, but that's the first reference I can find anyone making to him looking suspicious, which probably rules her out as scum.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:33 pm UTC

Ok, DJ's flip took me a bit by surprise. I guess I need to modify my D1 meta-view of him a bit, since he felt to me to be very similar to how he played D1 on Shakespeare 2. Actually, in retrospect, that probably wasn't the best of things to base it on, since he was independent in that game...

I haven't got the concentration levels to analyse the last bit of D1 and today so far. However, I did spend time sharing this with my pen pal last night. Here's a summary of what I wrote to them, in case I got killed overnight, plus a few extra thoughts:

I didn't feel, and I still don't really feel that both Madge and DJ are scum. However, reflecting on this a bit more, I don't think this makes as much sense as it did to me then. I will do a more solid read of this tomorrow.

Sabrar's jester fixation struck me as odd. I don't think that we was doing it as part of some sort of gambit or similar. So far, nothing from him feels like a scum ping to me though.

On emlightened's series of posts, it felt more confused than any attempt to manipulate, which doesn't clear her, but it doesn't make her feel like scum specifically to me. DJ was right in that she didn't justify her vote on him, but I doubt he'd have drawn attention to it, if she were scum. In fact, he likely wouldn't have drawn her into the discussion so much late on, which pushes her in the direction of town to me.

dimochka did feel better somewhat initially because he tried to get DJ to contribute. If dimochka is scum, I think he'd have more likely simply voted Madge, with some basic explanation, as his vote could have swung it away from DJ.

More detailed thoughts tomorrow.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby moody7277 » Sun Jun 12, 2016 12:41 am UTC

I'd say that no night deaths very much more likely means one save and no SK than two saves. Also, does anyone want to admit to being scum!DJ's pen pal (looks like mpolo implied this)? No need to be shy as you are more likely than not town.

Timeline of the Madge/DJ discussion that ran to after the deadline:
DJ D-59 mins: DJ gets around to dimochka's question about his other suspects, includes Madge (for tunneling DJ), emlightened (for the frantic set of posts earlier), and Sabrar (for his jester!DJ stuff). Discounts Sabrar.
Madge D+3 mins: Madge semi-apologetic for defensive vote. Suggests emlightened as alternative to force 3-way tie.
DJ D+11 mins: switches vote to em. happy to lynch em and have someone else on the bandwagon. waiting on Madge to change her vote.
Madge D+14 mins: switches to em. Prisoner's dilemma.
DJ D+16 mins: nervous about third party breaking tie.
Madge D+17 mins: also nervous. "no hard deadline"
DJ D+18 mins: DJ expects hard deadline.
Madge D+21 mins: expects deadline in 10 minutes
Madge D+22 mins: recalcuation means votes after 8:32 western Australia time may be moot
Snark posts day end confirming this last statement.

From this I'd say that emlightened is very likely town based on similar reasoning to mpolo's, and Madge is more likely than not town.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Carlington » Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:53 am UTC

mpolo wrote:DJ was my penpal. And my power is not nearly as awesome as his…

--------------------------

@Sabrar, I didn't get a scummy vibe from her, but I didn't get a scummy vibe from anyone. My only real choices of who to vote were Lurk and Not-So-Lurk, and I hate having to resort to policy lynches so I went with the player who had been active-lurking. Obviously it's a good thing my vote isn't the only one.
Also:
Sabrar wrote:- regarding SK: at first glance I thought that it would be very unlikely that 2 kills would be blocked and was willing to assume that the easier explanation (no SK) is the correct one. On the other hand I've just thought of a possibility that would make it more likely than I originally imagined, so I won't discard that scenario. Luckily we probably don't have to worry about it during D2 and probably will have even more info about the setup tomorrow.

Is this possibility just "maybe there's a doctor and a roleblocker, and both got lucky?" If not, could you elaborate a little bit? I'm not super happy with anyone who is ready to put an SK out of their mind completely at this point. No night kills means we have no information about night kills, so I'd really rather proceed with caution.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Madge » Sun Jun 12, 2016 2:05 am UTC

I probably should have mentioned this but I have exams on Tuesday and Wednesday so I'm going to be a bit distracted the next few days, but it looks like the deadline is after my exams are over so we should be OK.

Sorry about me and DJ's little gambit thing yesterday. It was exciting but ultimately pointless, though at least the outcome was good.

If DJ was immune to kills, he might not be the only one; but with a likely doctor or roleblocker around the place we could easily have like 3 different explanations for the lack of bloodshed. Or hell, Snark could be creative and given scum a poison power so they keep us waiting for the carnage.

Agree this means emlightened is town non-mafia, scum!DJ wouldn't want to put less chance of my death on the table if it just meant it was more likely his team would be crippled.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:45 am UTC

Carlington wrote:Is this possibility just "maybe there's a doctor and a roleblocker, and both got lucky?" If not, could you elaborate a little bit?

It's not. At this point I'm still hesitating how much to debate on the setup, whether it gives scum more information that could later hurt us. At the least I would like to wait a few days to see if anyone besides mpolo wants to claim something (perhaps the Cop?).

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Carlington » Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:56 am UTC

I think you're right in that. Scum likely has no idea why they had no kill last night, and that information would be very useful to them, no doubt. Better to leave it for now, and let things become clear in their own course.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby mpolo » Sun Jun 12, 2016 2:15 pm UTC

I think you're correct that revealing how the night kill was blocked would only benefit scum.

Note to self: stop trying to reread Dje's mails to get anything out of them. I keep trying to convince myself that there's something there, and I am afraid it's just manipulation. Ultimately, he seemed to be just echoing things said in thread.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jun 12, 2016 9:17 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:At the least I would like to wait a few days to see if anyone besides mpolo wants to claim something (perhaps the Cop?).
IGMEOY Sabrar for role-fishing. You are right in waiting a little, but once everyone's posted at least once, I think it's reasonable to assume that there won't be any further claims. People will have reasons to make claims or not based on their role and any results they might have, which only the individuals themselves will be able to decide on. Pressuring people into claims at this point is probably a bad idea, as it will likely give scum more useful information than town at this point.

I took a look through the Madge/DJ conversation again, and I've been re-evaluating the possibility of Madge being scum. DJ's vote on her was to bring the votals to a tie, and was a defensive vote. He could have voted someone else at this point, I guess, rather than bus scum!Madge. This would have effectively been giving up, given the lack of a likely alternative wagon. Voting Madge may have been a deliberate attempt to convince us today that Madge isn't scum. Further, their "prisoner dilemma" might have been an attempt to get a non-scum lynched. I don't think it's all that likely, but there is still definitely the possibility of her being scum. She hasn't said much to impress me as being townie, though she does raise good points about why there was no night kill last night.

Looking through DJ's posts, there isn't much to clearly point out a team-mate. His townie reads were dimochka, Flicky, somewhat mpolo, and Madge. Flicky, I'm comfortable with, as I have seen nothing that seems obviously scummy there. Madge, my thoughts I have already discussed above. As I mentioned yesterday, dimochka's quizzing of DJ before deadline looked good, and I doubt that a scum-buddy would have bothered. More likely, they'd have jumped on one of the wagons. Of mpolo, I'm a little concerned, but only in that he put DJ as townie-neutral in his reads list. More to watch there.

@Sabrar - to clarify why I never mentioned DJ again, I felt better about him following his lengthy post, and with little content from Madge, I felt she was the one to vote for, reinforced by her anti-DJ's reads-list post.

What flicky said about a scum-scum pairing being possible makes a lot of sense. That would make mpolo a good candidate for another scum-buddy. More reason to be concerned about mpolo, but hardly enough on its own. IGMEOY mpolo.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby mpolo » Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:04 am UTC

Obviously, I was affected by being DJs PenPal, which means that I had two additional long prose texts from him, so lurking didn't seem nearly as egregious as it did to others without those, and the slight bias from "him being the only thing making my power worthwhile".

On the other hand, it looks like all my reads were wrong yesterday, which means that I need to start over.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:09 am UTC

Eagerly waiting on dimochka's reread, would love to see emlightened's thoughts. Meanwhile quick reaction:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:once everyone's posted at least once, I think it's reasonable to assume that there won't be any further claims.
I don't fully agree, others could also want to wait a bit to decide whether their claims would be useful, also for example moody's single post touched on very few subjects, I would expect him to provide more content later (which might or might not contain a claim).

emlightened wrote:...

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Snark » Mon Jun 13, 2016 1:12 pm UTC

Deadline in ~5 days.

Votals
None

9 alive, 5 to lynch.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 13, 2016 1:28 pm UTC

mpolo's Watcher claim seems a bit too convenient. It was my understanding that the "you get something extra while your penpal is alive" rule would enhance an existing normal power and not just bring a severely limited one up to normal levels. It is also an easy way for claiming a townie power without having to supply any real information.
On the other hand whenever I've tried to guess the mod's intentions it always backfired upon me so it is entirely within the realms of possibility that he's speaking the truth and his ability had to be powered down for balance purposes.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 13, 2016 1:59 pm UTC

EBWOP
@mpolo: could you link me a game where you were scum? Upon re-reading your tone looks very townie to me and the only 'evidence' against you is situational but I would like to have a baseline to compare to.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby mpolo » Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:10 pm UTC

It's been a while. I was recruited in Mafia Cave on Night 2. My major win as scum (in my mind) was in Harry Potter, where I was Ron, but got recruited by the Mafia, and then won as only surviving mafia member. Mansion Mafia I was normal scum, but that was in April…
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby mpolo » Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:02 pm UTC

EBWOP: April 2015… I'm sure I had another scum role, but I couldn't find it. (Mafia Cave I was a SK and then recruited into normal Mafia.)

My power is worded that I am unable to sleep at night, so have the power to know everyone who visits me, but if my pen pal is alive, I can choose to watch someone else instead.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:22 pm UTC

OK, just been putting everyone's reads of everyone else together to see if I could pick out anything of interest.

dimochka and Madge have hardly given their opinion on anyone else at all:
  • dimochka didn't give his opinions on any players other than emlightened right up until near the end of D1 after the Dj-Madge feud started, at which point he started to point at Dj a little.
  • Madge's only reads have been town reads on Sabrar and emlightened, again until she started arguing with Dj.
Not necessarily suspicious but I'd like to see a bit more of their opinions.

I could totally see mpolo as scum. mpolo has claimed Pen Pal with Dj (and as I've said before Dj was heavily hinting against mafia-mafia pairs), he's claimed a pretty weak ability considering what people have suggested about their own abilities and what's publicly known about Dj's, and he's one of the few people suggesting Dj was townie at all from what I can see. (He claimed Dj had a "Generally positive contribution", and this was after Madge and I had started poking holes in Dj's read list.) Obviously not definitive but I'm certainly starting to look at him more closely now.

Getting too late to give reads on everyone else but these were the things that were most noticeable after looking at everything together.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:09 am UTC

Is anyone else annoyed by the fact that only 3 players have posted in the past 24 hours or am I crazy to think that this is not normal? Anyway...

@mpolo: thank you for the references! So I've started reading Mafia Cave thinking you were Town originally and didn't notice any significant change in style after N2. And now I learn that you were scum all along... Next I read Mansion and once again nothing jumped out at me. I have no idea if I will have the time to look at Harry Potter (over 1200 posts, wtf). Besides it was in 2010 so it might have little relevance.

On second thought a self-Watcher can be easily tested by any investigative role, as mpolo would have to guess accurately who targeted him. So if it's a fake-claim then not a completely safe choice as I originally thought.

@dimochka: how about that reread?

dimochka wrote:Will get to re-reads probably tomorrow, have a lot going on this weekend.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby mpolo » Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:34 am UTC

flicky's last couple of posts feel like him trying to drum up a wagon without committing himself, which would be scummy. However, I'm probably too close to the action to judge this very impartially.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Madge » Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:41 am UTC

@Sabrar: I like your point about mpolo's power maybe being a lie. Self-watcher does seem awfully limited, especially because watcher is not a big angelic power by any means.

That said my own power level functions in a similar way (i.e. I have a full power now, but if my penpal dies I get a limited version of that power). So I think mpolo is telling the truth on that basis. But it was a clever observation and shows you're thinking so points.

Don't have other thoughts at the moment. Just got out of my anatomy exam a few hours ago and did alright (yay). Time to focus on my nutrition exam that starts in about 36 hours. Sometime after that I'll have a re-read of D2 so far and see if I have anything else, especially by way of scum reads.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:51 am UTC

mpolo wrote:flicky's last couple of posts feel like him trying to drum up a wagon without committing himself

This occurred to me as well, however he would have had to bus Dj really hard D1 if he were scum and I'm just not seeing that right now.

Oops, second thought: he could be independent? But if he's only pretending to be scum-hunting that would mean anti-town agenda, possibly SK? I'm not sure how I feel about that.

@Madge: ok, good to know that mpolo's claim doesn't stand out as much as I thought.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jun 14, 2016 6:14 am UTC

I must admit that seeing Madge say a similar thing about her own ability makes mpolo's claim less suspect. I wasn't trying to push everyone onto mpolo, just announcing what I'd noticed after going through what everyone had said.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby emlightened » Tue Jun 14, 2016 6:54 am UTC

This feels like D1 all over again.

Anyway, I don't have any strong reads, except that I'm looking more at the people who didn't vote for Dj, because of how close the tie was. I'm probably most suspicious of Carlington, followed by Dimochka and Sabrar (because I can never tell when he's scum, mainly, not because I have an inkling). Madge is seeming rather hard to read after the post-D1 messages, and mpolo and jimbob just havn't seemed scummy to me (yet).

I wouldn't be surprised if we have a SK in the game; I think it's more likely that the kills collided or were both blocked than having just one mafia team (unless we've got a one-shot vig or something, but that doesn't really fit in with the whole pen-pals-boost-your-power thing this game is centred around). flicky's behaviour does seem slightly odd, but I don't think it's nearly suspicious enough to vote on.

Hopefully I'll be able to do reads tomorrow night.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby moody7277 » Tue Jun 14, 2016 3:21 pm UTC

Based on posts after 5 June

jimbobmacdoodle-- reads list with DJ, Madge, Carlington. embarrassed at having DJ most scummy, lets of on him next post, votes Madge with some later reasoning. D2: surprised at DJ being scum, bewildered by Sabrar. Putting aside the "what would scum do" question from D1 that I thought was scummy, him being so forgiving of DJ still put him in the slightly scummy category.

Sabrar-- reads list with Carlington, DJ, emlightened scummiest, unvotes Carlington, anti-town lying (aka freezeblading) in response to statement by dim, votes emlightened, switches to DJ, switches back to emlightened based on a comment by dim. D2: role advice, vote analysis, nervous about discussing lack of kills to not inform scum, dubious of mpolo on a couple of points, with test for the self-watching thing. townie

emlightened-- reads list with dimochka and Carlington as most scummy looking, DJ neutral-town, suggestion of vote shenanigans, votes DJ defensively. Several posts in which she seems to be panicking. D2: still suspicious of Carlington and dimochka, existence of SK. If it weren't for mpolo's reasoning against it, I'd still be likely thinking of her as slightly scummy.

flicky1991-- suspicious of DJ based on his reads list and the two other people DJ called town (dim and Madge), satisfied with dim's response, votes DJ, little bit on the jester!DJ point, D2: analysing DJ's posts, interested in Madge and dim due to lack of reads. townie.

Carlington-- shows interest in some players, Madge slightly scummy, pro dead penpal claiming (as opposed to live penpals), votes Madge. D2, says no strong scum reads led to Madge vote, no conclusions from lack of kills. neutral

dimochka-- reads flicky as town, neutral on emlightened, on board with DJ being a jester, but not wanting to vote him. votes emlightened off of vote suggestion, then unvotes after further explanation. last few posts D1 were comments on votals. D2: still believes in SK. Given my previous feelings and his power weirdness, I wonder if he's our independent.

mpolo-- reads list with emlightened, dim, and Madge as most scummy, DJ in the middle, votes emlightened, switches vote to Madge. D2: says he was penpal with DJ, claims watcher power that now only applies to himself, trying to parse penpal chat with DJ, discussion of meta and qualified suspicion of flicky. slightly townie, but with some weird undertones.

Madge-- short reads list pro Sabrar and mistakenly suspicious of flicky, discussions with DJ leading to post-deadline arrangement. D2: more creative reasons for lack of kill, dubious of mpolo. move her from slightly scummy to neutral.

Voteables: jimbob, then distantly emlightened and mpolo.

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby mpolo » Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:25 pm UTC

Got distracted today. Maybe more after dinner.

Sabrar is seeming consistently townish. He is right about flicky and DJ, which has flicky looking good. Minus points to Sabrar for being alive D2, but since everybody knows he is the default scum target on N1 when he is town, I can buy his having been protected. As mentioned before, Madge and enlightened are also looking good. Which at least narrows down who I need to look at.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jun 14, 2016 7:05 pm UTC

Been rereading on the bus home today, and one point struck me:

@mpolo - why did you claim your role?

I don't see much benefit in a self watcher claiming as such, except to counter-claim somebody else's supposed target. Consider this: if he is town, scum now know that he is relatively harmless to them and they can essentially ignore him, allowing them to focus on other players who presumably would have more useful abilities. Similarly, having revealed this, mpolo's only use to town with that power is to verify that a) he is not lying, and b) that somebody has a power that he can target them with. On the other hand, if he hadn't revealed it, he could have used it to confirm or deny being targeted by another player. One further point, it is possible that scum!mpolo is telling the truth. Although traditionally a townie role, I don't see why a Watcher couldn't be useful in the hands of scum. That all being said, I've had disagreements with people, including, I think, town!mpolo before on when to claim powers such as this, so I think I'm likely overthinking it.

In re-reading mpolo, I found this:
mpolo wrote:I have the same power before and after death of my pal, but it is more flexible before death of the penpal.
The way he's claimed his power later in this post:
mpolo wrote:My power is worded that I am unable to sleep at night, so have the power to know everyone who visits me, but if my pen pal is alive, I can choose to watch someone else instead.
does match up, so is a small townie point for him.
mpolo wrote:Got distracted today. Maybe more after dinner.

Sabrar is seeming consistently townish. He is right about flicky and DJ, which has flicky looking good. Minus points to Sabrar for being alive D2, but since everybody knows he is the default scum target on N1 when he is town, I can buy his having been protected. As mentioned before, Madge and enlightened are also looking good. Which at least narrows down who I need to look at.
Isn't it usually D2/N2 that he dies?

Following my re-read of mpolo, I don't have any issue with his D1 play at all. His reasoning for voting Madge seems solid enough, given that he was pen pals with DJ. His D2 content started off focusing too much on DJ and Madge for my liking, but his last couple of brief posts have touched on a few others, so I feel better about him than I would have done had I done this yesterday, despite all the circumstantial evidence. I certainly wouldn't bet on him being town, but I definitely don't have him as cast iron scum.

Moving onto others now. Carlington - his D1 content prior to the last 24 hours before deadline was almost entirely focused on setup discussion, with only a brief comment on dimochka and Sabrar that I saw in my skim through. He has posted almost nothing of substance on D2. In particular, he hasn't commented on the lynch or on people's links to DJ as of yet, despite having posted twice since day start.

Dimochka - has also not posted anything substantial since the start of the day, other than to say he'd likely have voted Madge. My thoughts on him haven't really changed at all as of yet, but I do want some input from him sooner rather than later.

@Carlington & DJ, please could you give some thoughts on DJ's flip, and anything else significant.

emlightened - I and others have already posted my thoughts on why she isn't scum, but as a result, I want to know what she thinks and why. In particular:

@emlightened - you said that you found Carlington the most suspicious, followed by dimochka. Any particular reason why?

flicky - I like his contributions today, and they have felt a lot more original than much of D1. He also has posted some reasons behind some his thoughts as well, which is more than many today. Seems good to me.

Madge - she was the first to vote for DJ, and at that point, there was no massive pressure to vote for him (or anybody else). I like this, as I doubt she'd bus him heavily on D1. On the other hand, she seems to be willing to let him off the hook at deadline, despite her previous vote having valid reasons. She doesn't give a reason why her opinion on DJ changed between her vote on him, and the prisoner dilemma discussion. She seemed more concerned with her own survival than lynching her previous (presumed) top suspect. Like several others, hasn't posted much content today, but has posted a reason for this at least. I doubt she's mafia, based purely on her vote on DJ, but I wonder if she is some kind of independent?

Moody - has posted big reads lists on both D1 and D2 now. Obviously, I disagree with his conclusion re. my question on suggested scum tactics, and his vote on me, but that doesn't make him scum, especially given that he at least has posted reasonably valid reasons for his vote. I'm a little disappointed that he doesn't elaborate further on why he didn't come back to emlightened when reconsidering his Madge vote. Other than that, his reasoning in his reads list seems fairly solid, if a little weird that he's relying on "mpolo's reasoning" for not finding emlightened scummy.

@moody - could you clarify the point from your read on emlightened about mpolo's reasoning? Do you mean to say that your opinion matches his, i.e. that his reasoning about her is valid?

Sabrar - as always, the chattiest of the bunch. I don't have time to do a full reread of his posts now, but I can say that usually by now scum!Sabrar has started pinging me, and I don't get that feeling this time around. His analysis, and general attempts to get discussion going all are good. Biggest negative is that he backed down from voting DJ (or Madge), in the hope of lynching emlightened instead. Otherwise, he has posted thoughts on a variety of players with good reasoning. He genuinely appears to be trying to figure out if mpolo is scum by analysing his past games. Overall, I think he's likely the mafia target tonight :P

Great, too many town reads, and no outstanding scum reads :(

Town
Sabrar
emlightened
flicky
moody
dimochka
Madge
mpolo
Carlington
Scum

As my scummiest player:

Vote Carlington

I will be away from Friday afternoon until late-ish Sunday. I expect I'll have a bit of time to contribute, but not necessarily. The same goes for the following weekend, if I'm still alive and we're still going by that point.

In particular, that means I may not have much chance to contribute leading up to the deadline.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:00 pm UTC

OK, let's have a look at everyone:

Sabrar: Continues to provide plenty of discussion and reads. Everything's been pointing at Sabrar being townie for me.

emlightened: Not loads of content to go on but probably no worse than me on that front. One thing I've spotted is that she's changed her mind a bit about Sabrar - he's gone from "very townie" in her earlier read list to being on her suspicious list, with no reasoning other than that she can never tell when he's scum.

jimbobmacdoodle: Nothing particularly suspicious here, except perhaps prematurely jumping on Sabrar for "role-fishing" for what I saw as a simple explanation of his own logic. Plenty of good discussion otherwise. Fairly townie.

Carlington: A bit of "talking without really saying anything" going on. I'm not sure what to think of "I didn't get a scummy vibe from anyone", since there's been plenty of content for him to go on. A little scummy.

dimochka: While my opinion of him improved after he first clarified his ability claim, he's hardly contributed anything substantial since. Plus, as I've already said, he's hardly providing any reads (it's more than I said earlier, as I missed the reads of me and Carlington in his clarification post, but still very few). Keeping him as a little suspicious until he posts some more opinions.

mpolo: I've given my reasoning for seeing him as scummy. He's also got the good point of "why would a Watcher want to reveal" against him - I'd like to hear his rationale for that.

moody7277: Plenty of good discussion and reasoning. I understand his suspicion of jimbob even though I'm not totally on board with it. Townie.

Madge: Dislike the lack of proper discussion outside of the talk with Dj. Not mafia but still possibly anti-town?

TOWN
Sabrar
moody7277
jimbobmacdoodle
emlightened
Carlington
Madge
dimochka
mpolo
SCUM

Hmm... I didn't want to go after mpolo purely on the basis of my recent speculation, but he's ended up at the bottom only because I've not got a stronger scum read on anyone else right now.

With so much time left until the end of D2 I'm not going to rush into a vote. I'd still like to hear a bit more from dim and Madge (I see both have already promised more, although dim seems to be a bit delayed).
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby moody7277 » Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:23 pm UTC

@jimbob: This is the point mpolo made I was refering to:

mpolo wrote:The fact that he was so willing to vote emlightened would tend to be a point in emlightened's favor as well (trading a 50% scum lynch for a 66.6% scum lynch makes no sense). If both Madge and DJ are scum, there would obviously be motive for this (33% scum lynch instead of 100%). On the whole, however, I think Madge and emlightened are likely town at this point.


I do agree with his points that DJ was looking for someone else to pass the lynch off on, and using emlightened was good on two points. First, it gives Madge someone to jump to since she and DJ were deadlocked; town!Madge would be being defensive while scum!Madge would want a non-zero chance of town being lynched. Secondly, emlightened was already down in the most scummy looking range as those two, so choosing her has a veneer of plausibility; DJ could hope to pick off some other voters who were amibvalent between him and her and survive. Bottom line, DJ doesn't want to switch lynching scum for lynching scum, so emlightened is probably town, even if kind of scummy looking town.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby dimochka » Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:55 am UTC

weekend was busier than expected because family visited. about to go drop them off at the airport and will post tonight when i get back. sorry for delay, no more family visits for a few months :D

no comments currently because i haven't even tried to read what's in the thread since i last posted.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby mpolo » Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:30 am UTC

I claimed my power simply because it was no longer useful for anything — it gives me the power to expose others and to know who killed me in the night. There may have been some frustration factor there (only chance of using a relatively weak power was gone). I suppose I should have just tried to blend in and played as vanilla, but I didn't.

I don't know if I mentioned that I was not visited last night.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Carlington » Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:51 am UTC

I'm not really very keen to base very much on the wagons at the end of D1, because the end of D1 and DJ's flip did little in my mind but to make DJ and emlightened and Madge and emlightened seem non-aligned.

DJ tying the votals with a Madge vote could very easily have been a gambit to flip scum and exonerate Madge, and the two of them coordinating to make a three-way tie on emlightened just looked abhorrently scummy to me, even if it failed due to deadline. Certainly I think mpolo is right in saying that it would have been more likely coordinated by PM, but I don't think the conclusion that follows makes sense (ie scum have no daychat) because they couldn't have just planned it all out and then wordlessly switched votes, that would be a terrible plan.

While I mention mpolo, his claim did seem a little off as others have noted. I find myself looking more at how much he has referred back to having been DJ's penpal, though. It seems a little odd to me, although I don't know if it's scummy odd or just odd.

jimbob still looks fine to me, the only thing I can really see is that his D1 reads were wrong, which is not nearly enough for me to base a vote on.

Madge hasn't really done anything today to look scummy, so even if I'm unwilling to rule it out completely, I think I have better leads to follow.

Sabrar, the more I look at him, the less I feel like he's town. The aforementioned fixation on a Jester lynch, there's been little bits here and there of role fishing (weirdly always sandwiched between "now let's not claim too hastily"), and the fact that I can never really tell the difference between his town and scum meta all add up.

I think emlightened has been well enough exonerated and is likely to be an indie, but probably not an anti-town one like an SK.

My read on flicky hasn't changed much at all, I have him pretty nicely townie in my mind. Good amount of good content, and willing to go after reads where he sees them.

I'm probably looking most sharply at mpolo. The stuff I mentioned in this post combined with some things I noticed and re-noticed while rereading: the focus on cult and indie yesterday, with a hint of role fishing around lovers, and where he ended up casting his vote - notably, not for his actual scummiest read, but for the scummier read out of the two biggest wagons. I feel a lot more comfortable with people who chase their actual leads, rather than trying to be on the "winning" wagon.

Vote: mpolo

With that said, though: I haven't got a read on dimochka here. That's because, until I hit "Preview" on this post I forgot he was in this game. RL stuff abounds, I can see, but it would be lovely to hear from him.

Also, my activity may decline a little bit from Thursday, as I'll be spending time with my family. My internet access will actually be better there than here, but that's contingent on the fact that I can't really go and visit my family and spend my entire visit looking at my phone.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:34 am UTC

Finally lots of stuff to react to. Going in order:

- emlightened: hopefully more content coming later, still almost nothing to go on.

- moody: I don't like how his reads contain only post-summaries and his conclusion with no detailed reasoning linking the two. This makes his actual content far less than it would appear at first glance. Also his lynchables list and reads seem a bit disjointed when it comes to mpolo, why would you rather lynch someone who is 'slightly townie, but with some weird undertones' rather than e.g. someone who you read scummy earlier and neutral now (Madge)?

- jimbob: very good point about mpolo's early claim, though it doesn't give him townie points in my mind as I can easily see scum also latching unto it. I disagree that a Watcher would be that good for scum but that's a minor point. Gives lots of reads with reasons, asks questions. Seems good for now.

- flicky: not much to comment here, liking his content so far. I've been thinking about Dj's supposed 'hint' at scum-scum penpal pairs and I don't agree with that read, will try to collect my thoughts later.

- mpolo: can totally relate to frustration making someone post in haste. I read him as very townie right now, still think we should test him.

- Carlington: started reading his read list, immediately thought of him being scum due to downplaying vote analysis. Focusing only on the happenings at the end of D1 and not the whole road that led there is wrong on many levels. This took a sharp turn into OMGUS territory when I read his thoughts about me. So as not to rush early into a vote here are some questions and replies:

re Dj and Madge: while your analysis on the end-of-day happenings are spot on, what are your thoughts about how they basically started each other's train when there was no pressure on either of them (apart from general comments about lurking)?

re Jester fixation: this has been mentioned often enough to warrant a response though I think I've explained myself already here and here. It was not a fixation, I thought I was able to connect some dots and make a good read (like e.g. I did in Smalltown) and you would be all amazed how clever I was. I don't even know why you would call it a 'fixation' as I unvoted immediately after Dj denied it.

re role-fishing: could you point out the 'little bits' you perceive as that? Evidently I'm not the most objective judge of this but I just don't see the multitude of such fishing that your comment would imply.

re forgetting about dimochka: did you forget about moody as well?

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby mpolo » Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:05 am UTC

At least a quick readthrough>

Spoiler:
Madge - enlightened : likely not co-aligned, also not co-aligned with Dje. Hence likely town/independent. Offers explanations for kill (poison).

Sabrar - Generally townie play. Points out an inconsistency from Carlington.

dimochka - worried by lack of kill. Expected two kills. Would have voted Madge. (Was online and didn't do so.)

Flicky - Some tunneling, but this was corrected quickly. Strong anti-Dje makes likely town.

jimbobmacdoodle - "forgot" DJ as the day went on, no content at day end, so this is hard to apply. scum!dimochka would have saved DJ. Is Sabrar rolefishing. Felt better about DJ due to long post.

emlightened: First to call out DJ's lurking

moody7277: Examines Madge/DJ exchange, thinks emlightened townie, Madge non-town

Carlington: Urges caution on ruling out NKs


@Carlington: At the time I voted, there were few votes on my preferred lynch candidate and it appeared to me (apparently miscounted) that there was a tie. Knowing I was not going to be on before deadline, I had to vote to break the tie. (Which inadvertently created a tie.)

This leaves me:

Townie
Sabrar
Flicky

Town/Indie
Madge
enlightened

People who have issues:
jimbobmacdoodle - There seems to be some nit-picking to see if something will stick, though admittedly, there is not a lot of hard information to base things on.

moody7277: Nothing in particular. I didn't understand his conclusion that Madge has to be non-town. But I don't have enough to push him into the more certain category.

dimochka: Declined voting when there was a tie coming up.

Carlington: As with moody, I don't see anything particular, but also not a strong townie feeling.

More later. At this stage, I don't have enough to vote.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:37 am UTC

Coming back to reads based on Dj's content:
The issue in my opinion is that scum has additional concerns when posting. While Town can basically just write what they think honestly, scum also needs to consider how it will look in retrospect should he die and flip. Dj argued heavily against scum-scum pairs but the only time this topic would realistically come up again is the exact position we find ourselves in as we would probably only discuss this after the death of a scum player. Therefore I find it entirely possible that Dj wanted specifically us to suspect his penpal should he get lynched. On the other hand if he didn't think so far ahead it could easily implicate mpolo as well but I'm not that confident that this is the case here.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:44 am UTC

One more thing that I wanted to talk about (after sufficient time has passed that it makes sense to do so).
I think that in a scum-town penpal pair the scum has more incentive to write pm-s. Townies shouldn't generally trust their partner and whatever they have to say can usually just be posted in the thread, while scum can use the opportunity to try to earn townie points and get on their partner's good side (see PyPokemon for an example). So just in case you haven't considered it from this pov, please have another look at your penpal correspondence and ask yourself why the other player saw the need to keep his thoughts private to your chat.
Note: while Dj's alleged correspondence would fit this notion precisely, this shouldn't be taken as 'evidence' for mpolo's townieness as he could have made the whole thing up (and if he's scum he's playing really well so I would expect him to be capable of it).

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D2: Dear Abby]

Postby mpolo » Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:54 pm UTC

My first thought was that a town player should try to force the partner to send PMs to have another source for catching scum slips. Unfortunately, that didn't really help me detect anything. Summary of our PMs:

Me -> Dj: Fairly empty "Happy First of June! What do you think about the rumors of bad people in town?"

Dj -> Me: Longer letter: First paragraph is fluff (yes, there must be bad people around…), second paragraph addresses the idea that there are independents (he felt that there were), last paragraph asks for my insights

Me -> Dj: I complain about the lack of posting in thread; I say that I thought that 3 scum was likely, but with the likelihood of independents, 3 seems like too many

Dj -> Me: Thinks it unlikely that the mod would sequester two scum in their own chat; two scum might be a good bet, though he finds this number awkward, though three scum and an independent seems really unlikely; thinks the balance is ultimately dictated by the powers, particularly pen-pal bonuses

That was his last message before being lynched (Tuesday, June 7, 4:59 am in GMT-1)
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