Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby dimochka » Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:03 pm UTC

I'm a gun maker, my ability is to make a 1 shot gun and give it to people. While my pen pal is alive i can secretly sabotage the gun to make it kill the user instead. My pen pal is still alive.

One strategy we could consider is lynching me to confirm that I'm town and then figuring out whom to vig with those who have guns. That probably only works if we have one anti town left.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:42 pm UTC

- Can confirm that I received a gun N1, hinted at it here. Didn't use it because double investigation is much better assuming I remain alive, plus I did not trust my reads enough to kill.
- Ability fits with dimochka's initial claim (though secretly sabotaging it is a good way to get rid of scum if you're confident in your read, so I would argue that the ability is really better with penpal alive)
- Gun maker without the sabotage part is a role that should never be given to a scum faction with multiple members. Also scum would never draw attention to the sabotage, nor would they give it to someone who was considered townie by most players.
- Therefore I think that dimochka is Town and by now we should have a large enough townie-block (after full-claims) to basically ensure our victory, specially with the multiple kills we have.
- Should emlightened and me both die tonight you can always lynch dimochka tomorrow but we shouldn't waste a probable mislynch just to make sure.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby emlightened » Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:55 pm UTC

Okay, I'm a doctor and Carlington was my pen pal. I was unable to save scum or indie whilst he was still alive, and doctored jimbob N1 and Sabrar N2.

Not really sure what to think about there being two cops. It may be true, based on the unlikelihood of jimbob being scum and there having been no N1 kills, although unless someone else knows they got roleblocked N1 we can only trust Sabrar's claim on face (and jimbob's points) (and that Madge would have had to be targeted by Sabrar N2 I guess)...

Assuming they're both sane cops (not a very safe assumption, admittedly), we have four or five very-likely town (emlightened, jimbob, Sabrar, mpolo and jimbob's pen pal) and one claimed survivor (Madge), leaving us flicky, dimochka and moody, (and maybe Madge). I strongly recommend against assuming this to be the case, though, for obvious reasons.

The only player who hasn't clamed yet is moody, I think.

Also, based on no NKs having happened yet, do people think it's likely for there to be a SK?

D1 Votals:
Madge - 4 - (jimbobmacdoodle, Carlington, mpolo, Djehutynakht)
Djehutynakht - 4 - (Madge, flicky1991, moody7277, emlightened)
emlightened - 1 - (Sabrar)
(Not voting) - 1 - (dimochka)

D2 Votals:
Carlington - 4 - (jimbobmacdoodle, emlightened, flicky1991, dimochka)
jimbobmacdoodle - 4 - (moody7277, Sabrar, Madge, Carlington)
(Not voting) - 1 - (mpolo)

Don't want to rely on these much (there could be a major case of bussing from flicky, for instance), but the votals do seem like useful information if we have any scum left. Nobody voted against the major town lynch candidate both nights, interestingly, although Sabrar and mpolo haven't voted on scum.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby emlightened » Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:56 pm UTC

Okay, I'm a doctor and Carlington was my pen pal. I was unable to save scum or indie whilst he was still alive, and doctored jimbob N1 and Sabrar N2.

Not really sure what to think about there being two cops. It may be true, based on the unlikelihood of jimbob being scum and there having been no N1 kills, although unless someone else knows they got roleblocked N1 we can only trust Sabrar's claim on face (and jimbob's points) (and that Madge would have had to be targeted by Sabrar N2 I guess)...

Assuming they're both sane cops (not a safe assumption, admittedly), we have four or five very-likely town (emlightened, jimbob, Sabrar, mpolo and jimbob's pen pal) and one claimed survivor (Madge), leaving us flicky, dimochka and moody, (and maybe Madge). I strongly recommend against assuming this to be the case, though, for obvious reasons.

The only player who hasn't clamed yet is moody, I think.

Also, based on no NKs having happened yet, do people think it's likely for there to be a SK?

D1 Votals:
Madge - 4 - (jimbobmacdoodle, Carlington, mpolo, Djehutynakht)
Djehutynakht - 4 - (Madge, flicky1991, moody7277, emlightened)
emlightened - 1 - (Sabrar)
(Not voting) - 1 - (dimochka)

D2 Votals:
Carlington - 4 - (jimbobmacdoodle, emlightened, flicky1991, dimochka)
jimbobmacdoodle - 4 - (moody7277, Sabrar, Madge, Carlington)
(Not voting) - 1 - (mpolo)

Don't want to rely on these much (there could be a major case of bussing from flicky, for instance), but the votals do seem like useful information if we have any scum left. Nobody voted against the major town lynch candidate both nights, interestingly, although Sabrar and mpolo haven't voted on scum.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby emlightened » Wed Jun 22, 2016 3:00 pm UTC

(Sorry for double posting; connection dropped, and I thought I had to resend. Only difference is 'very' being dropped from near the start of the third paragraph.)
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Wed Jun 22, 2016 3:20 pm UTC

I just wrote this thing, but it kind of turned Stream-of-Consciousness on me. It's probably more useful to post it as it is than to try to polish it. Just remember that I am going with random ideas that are occurring to me here.

We seem to have a whole lot of semi-confirmed townies.

I am a little nervous about two cops. I could well think that one of them is faking it. However, I also think that there is likely only one scum left, so that we can _probably_ accept their results, even if we can't accept that they themselves are town.

Oops, I just saw that it is explicitly allowed in the rules that there can be two cops… It is clear that neither is "insane" in the sense of getting backwards results. However, one might well be naive.

RE: Serial Killer - it's looking rather unlikely, since we didn't get a "mafia eliminated" message.

Another consideration: there have been cases where the mafia got X recruits that they could use instead of a kill. If that is the case, I would think that we would have started with 2 mafia, and they recruited one or two. I think that more than 2 recruits would be extremely unbalanced.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:46 pm UTC

A few quick thoughts re. mine and Sabrar's claims. Assuming that none of our targets are godfathers, I think we can reasonably assume emlightened, mpolo, my pen pal and myself are Town. The reason is that a) Town is unlikely to lie about their claim, and b) there is likely only one anti-town left (I'm assuming no recruit for the moment, which might be unwise), so Scum must be telling the truth about their results. The exception is that up to two of those could be indies, since scum won't know the difference (probably). There is a chance that Sabrar is indie, and lying about his results, but I don't think that is likely, as that would mean one of emlightened or myself are not town. I trust emlightened's claim, and I obviously know my own alignment.

Actually, don't rely on the above, since either of us could be non-sane.

That leaves 4 out of the remaining 5 as possible scum candidates (the fifth being my pen pal):
Sabrar - voted correctly D1, incorrectly D2, claimed cop, roleblocked N1, town me and emlightened N2
Flicky - voted correctly both days, claimed lighthouse keeper
Moody - voted correctly D1, incorrectly D2, claimed tracker, claimed tracked mpolo N2.
Dimochka - didn't vote D1, correctly D2, claimed gun maker, targeted Sabrar N1, emlightened N2.
Madge - voted correctly D1, incorrectly D2, claimed bulletproof survivor.

@moody, who did you target N1?

Out of time now, will continue later hopefully.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby emlightened » Wed Jun 22, 2016 5:13 pm UTC

Oops, I missed moody's tracker claim.

Also @jimbob: Sabrar voted me D1, not Dj.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:08 pm UTC

Jumbled thoughts:

mpolo's limited recruit idea got me thinking, 2 recruits would be very lopsided in my opinion but 1 recruit could in fact balance out the 8-2 or 7-2-1 original setup. Therefore although I will primarily focus on original alignment, I'll also keep in mind the possibility of a townie-turned-scum.
Note: I don't think we have cult in a game this small as it's impossible to contain if we don't get it during the first day-night cycle. The same reason why I stated earlier that I don't believe chain-recruiting scum would work as with no townie roleblock claim we would have no defense against it apart from a lucky shot from dimochka's gun and no mislynches ever.

emlightened's ability is consistent with her early claim, although as a Doctor you should not have even considered alluding to your role. :)
Also, though it's probably a formality, please confirm that you received a gun N2.
With no kills on either night and the only protection role to be claimed (very unlikely that Madge would be shot 2 times) I think it should be clear that emlightened was originally Town.
I don't think we have an SK as it's unlikely that the kills would have coincided and with the guns a possible 3 kills N2 would be just too much. (sidenote: I originally thought that I might have been jailed which would protect me from both kills but that's clearly not the case.)
So with 2 scum down and a supposed maximum of 1 recruitment I will assume from here on now that we don't have 2 aligned scum left (possible recruit + hostile indie is another matter) so if two people state the same thing then it must be the truth.

fmpov we have the following Town-block cleared up: jimbob, emlightened, mpolo, jimbob's penpal, dimochka, myself. Therefore we lynch Madge, if game is not over I shoot moody/flicky, emlightened shoots the other, we should be done. Subtract from this whoever jimbob's penpal is, so actually we can doubleshoot the remaining player and prevent potential redirector to screw things up.

What if scum had 1 recruitment: they obviously used it N1 to get the maximum out of it and to deny us results. fmpov jimbob and emlightened were Town N2 so they can't be it. mpolo was investigated by town!jimbob N2 so he can't be it either. Scum should be among the players who voted for jimbob D2: moody7277, Sabrar, Madge, Carlington. That leaves once again moody and Madge fmpov. So my proposed strategy should still work.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby moody7277 » Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:18 pm UTC

Tracking targets:

N1: emlightened visited jimbob
N2: mpolo visited no one, dimochka visited emlightened

I got two targets night 2 due to penpal enhancement. Everything everyone else has said tracks with what info I have.

Sabrar backs up dimochka about where dim went N1, and I know that dimochka went to em N2, so dim looks good.

mpolo noticed me and jimbob visiting him, and he went no where when I was watching, so he looks good.

Sabrar claims cop and gives jimbob and emlightened as town N2, RBed (seemingly by Carlington) N1.

emlightened's doctor target is confirmed by where I saw her N1, and she has a town cop invest on her, so she looks good.

Not to vote for:
dimochka
mpolo
emlightened
Sabrar
jimbob

Which leaves Madge and flicky as the possible lynch candidates. I find that interesting since they have the most non-standard role claims. My opinion is we lynch Madge today, flicky D4 if needed, and if the game is still on at that point, at worst we will be at MYLO if the SK/lone scum decides to start killing.

Vote: Madge
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:24 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Which leaves Madge and flicky as the possible lynch candidates. I find that interesting since they have the most non-standard role claims.

:lol: Plus there's you, who waited until everyone else had claimed their actions to state who you'd tracked each night.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby moody7277 » Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:30 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Which leaves Madge and flicky as the possible lynch candidates. I find that interesting since they have the most non-standard role claims.

:lol: Plus there's you, who waited until everyone else had claimed their actions to state who you'd tracked each night.


To you that is the case; I know I'm town and shouldn't be lynched or vigged. Someone had to be last though, and I had a rather busy morning offline.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:03 pm UTC

Remainder of list that I was doing earlier (plus fixed Sabrar and moody's updated claim):
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar - voted incorrectly D1, incorrectly D2, claimed cop, roleblocked N1, town me and emlightened N2
Flicky - voted correctly both days, claimed lighthouse keeper
Moody - voted correctly D1, incorrectly D2, claimed tracker, claimed tracked emlightened to me N1, claimed tracked mpolo to nobody N2 and dimochka to emlightened.
Dimochka - didn't vote D1, correctly D2, claimed gun maker, targeted Sabrar N1, emlightened N2.
Madge - voted correctly D1, incorrectly D2, claimed bulletproof survivor.

Mpolo - voted incorrectly D1, did not vote D2, claimed self-watcher. Saw nobody N1, me and moody N2.
emlightened - voted correctly N1, correctly N2, claimed doctor. Protected me N1,
Me - voted incorrectly N1, correctly N2, claimed cop, town on pen pal N1, town on mpolo N2.

People who didn't vote for either Carlington or DJ = Sabrar, mpolo. Assuming I am sane, mpolo is Town, suggesting that we have somebody who bussed, or Sabrar is scum, or we are trying to kill an indie, or somebody was recruited N1. Assuming no bussing D2, a recruit could come from {Sabrar, Moody, Madge, mpolo}. Assuming nobody bussed anyone twice then Flicky and emlightened look best.

Warning - the rest of this post is a bit stream of thoughts like mpolo's, with little going back and editing them. Also, I talk several times about lists of people. In general, I have treated my pen pal as an additional player so as to try to avoid making it obvious who they are. I am in discussion with them to see if they think claiming is a good idea, to reduce the number of options:

Everybody's claims are consistent. I could easily see mafia trying to kill Madge N1, because she would look very good following DJ's flip. I assume that scum targeted Sabrar N2, or that there were no scum left with a kill, suggesting an anti-town indie, or a very reluctant Serial Killer. Here's a slightly crazy idea - a Serial Killer who only gets a kill once their pen pal is dead!

In terms of which roles are likely to be held by scum, I reckon dimochka's would be a possibility. Madge's claim would also be a convenient scum claim as well, but if it is, I reckon it was third-party scum rather than mafia. SK!Madge could make sense to claim bulletproof survivor, and would fit better with the D1 voting pattern.

Moody claimed tracker early on today, but didn't reveal his full results until last, which is vaguely suspicious, but could be correct. I doubt AlwaysScum!moody with a non-tracker ability would have claimed so early, as a tracker is a fairly standard role, so would likely be present. On the other hand, his behaviour could easily be that of a scum recruit who had lost his ability on recruit (mpolo had already claimed to not have any active ability, so claiming to track him would be relatively safe). On the plus side, it seems likely that mpolo can be trusted to be town thanks to moody's claim. Even if I am not sane in some way, scum!mpolo would likely have been the last scum, and therefore likely to have had an active ability to use, meaning he would have been seen by moody.

People I trust were not scum from the start of the game, based on claims and voting patterns: Mpolo, emlightened, Flicky, my pen pal, myself (obviously). I don't believe Madge to have been on DJ's team, but could be anti-town indie. Sabrar has yet to vote for the eventually lynched scum and his claim clashes with my own, but it is consistent with my ability (i.e. the town/non-town result bit), and he made it knowing that there must be a cop in the game due to Carlington's Godfather flip. Dimochka is almost certainly telling the truth about his ability, but otherwise nothing particular points him as Town from people's results. Moody is discussed above.

As I think on it a bit more, I don't think a recruit is particularly likely. I think more likely is that we have either a third mafia member or an anti-town indie. The logic behind this is that there doesn't seem to be anything to block a recruit, though that might be a bit of a stretch, and I will look back on it more later. A third mafia member would mean a 6-3-1 split, unless Madge was that mafia member, who I don't believe because of how D1 went down, and I think 6-3-1 would have been too much against town. A 6-2-1-1, or a 7-2-1 split seems more balanced. A 7-2-1 makes Madge an anti-town scum and not a survivor. A 6-2-1-1 would likely make Madge to be telling the truth, and someone else to be anti-town, probably from {Sabrar, Moody, Flicky, Dimochka}.

To summarise, my current lynch-candidates are Madge, Sabrar, Moody, and Dimochka. This is based purely on claims and votes.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:34 am UTC

My big thought about the cops: I'm not sure why everyone is so concerned about the possibility of insanity. They each have at least two town results on currently alive people, and given how we surely don't have that many mafia (maybe they recruited???) IMO we have to accept that we have either two sane cops, a cop and a scum, two scum (can't rule it out), or at least one naive cop.

On people wanting to lynch me - I get it. I claimed to my penpal just before I claimed in thread because I was so worried I was going to look scummy AF coming out as a survivor after what happened. I thought about fake-claiming but I figured it would do more harm than good, because I'd make town chase its tail when we're really only one or at most two lynches away from getting things done and I wouldn't want to end up in a counterclaim war since I'd lose.

So I told the truth because I thought it might give me some credibility or lenience, though I completely understand the way it's going now because were I in your position I probably wouldn't consider the whining of an impotent survivor worth changing the lynch about. Still, it would be nice if you could wait until tomorrow.

Moody's claim looks a little too convenient but I feel like we'd need to have a tracker in this game, but if I had my druthers I'd probably go for him. That said I'm quite happy to throw my vote anywhere that keeps me alive.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:41 am UTC

EBWOP I would also be down for lynching jimbob as I think his cop claim after being suspicious is pretty convenient, though the odds of D2 being a scum-scum tie are kind of massive so I'm not even sure I want to touch that.

I just think having two cops is super duper weird and I feel like we need to see what the deal is, but at the same time if they're both legit we don't want to kill the goose that lays the proverbial golden egg.

So yeah Sabrar might even be a good idea though I'm much more inclined to trust him.

But yeah I just..... surely one of our cops is scum, unless Snark really wanted to screw with us?
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 23, 2016 4:33 am UTC

And just when I started to trust jimbob he comes up with some crazy ideas.

- Having 3 scum from the beginning is not balanced at all as 1 mislynch leads to MYLO with several players having immunity to investigations.
- If dimochka were scum despite this he would have given the first gun to Carlington instead of me.

- I thought that emlightened protecting me and no NK on N2 would have cleared me but apparently people have funny notions. If we go with full claims including penpal reveals then I will have more evidence why I can't be scum. Also:

Can a scum player fire the gun received from dimochka the same night when s/he performs the faction kill?

I'm expecting no comment but in case the answer is yes it should pretty much clear me regardless as I would have had access to 2 kills N2 and emlightened protected me so only one of those could have failed.

@jimbob: you might as well claim your penpal as with process of elimination it should be fairly clear to anyone who it is.

On cop sanity: I doubt Snark would introduce something completely new, so let's go through the most likely options and eliminate them. We can't be Paranoid, Random is a Bastard role, Insane means that there is 2 scum remaining and Naive doesn't work due to Godfather and night-immune roles. I think it's pretty obvious that we are Sane.

Whatever, new strategy: ruling out dimochka there are 4 possible scum left: flicky, Madge, moody and myself. jimbob reveals his penpal -> 3 remain, we lynch 1 shoot the other 2. (yes that means emlightened shoots me most likely). dimochka gives gun to mpolo, jimbob investigates dimochka. That way even if dimochka and Madge both survive you can lynch one tomorrow and the other the day after (scum needs to kill mpolo so jimbob remains alive to report on his investigation), just barely retaining numerical superiority. If necessary I can present this with nice flowcharts but don't feel like it at the moment.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Thu Jun 23, 2016 4:40 am UTC

Why isn't jimbob in the list of potential scum? Did I miss something?
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Thu Jun 23, 2016 4:47 am UTC

... oh right, you investigated him and got a town result, didn't you?

That's so super weird.

Possibilities:

Town Sabrar, Scum Jimbob -> Sabrar's sanity is questionable or Jimbob is also a godfather somehow, or is a redirector or otherwise able to screw with results, and happened to screw with results in such a way that would get him cleared on the date he got investigated

Town Sabrar, Town Jimbob -> We have two cops of some flavour (naive, paranoid)

Scum Sabrar, Scum jimbob -> Trying to clear scummate; possibly one was originally the cop and was recruited somehow; some sort of gambit with bussing

Scum sabrar, town jimbob -> Sabrar is the last scum, gave some "real" results to get us to believe him, but didn't realise jimbob would claim cop, resulting in the real cop counterclaiming

There's also weird possibilities like lynchers, SKs, cults, etc but I don't even want to go there because it's complicated enough already.

TBH I actually think scum sabrar / town jimbob makes the most sense of the above as it requires the fewest coincidences, gambits or weird roles.

I think Sabrar is probably the best lynch at the moment based on that, even though he has not been scummy and seems likely to have been saved by the doctor from last night's kill.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 23, 2016 4:49 am UTC

If jimbob is scum I must be Town and telling the truth. Sane Cop -> jimbob is Town (finding 3rd Godfather really hard to believe). Plus he claims to have revealed himself to his penpal D2 which can be easily confirmed. Also he has confirmed nonlethal targeting ability.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:08 am UTC

Madge wrote:Town Sabrar, Scum Jimbob -> Sabrar's sanity is questionable or Jimbob is also a godfather somehow, or is a redirector or otherwise able to screw with results, and happened to screw with results in such a way that would get him cleared on the date he got investigated
In this case I was the target for the NK but then why would jimbob redirect me? As stated I do not believe in 3rd Godfather.

Madge wrote:Town Sabrar, Town Jimbob -> We have two cops of some flavour (naive, paranoid)
Obviously not paranoid, but could easily be sane which you left out.

Madge wrote:Scum Sabrar, Scum jimbob -> Trying to clear scummate; possibly one was originally the cop and was recruited somehow; some sort of gambit with bussing
Requires 2 co-aligned scum to remain, almost impossible.

Madge wrote:Scum sabrar, town jimbob -> Sabrar is the last scum, gave some "real" results to get us to believe him, but didn't realise jimbob would claim cop, resulting in the real cop counterclaiming
As jimbob mentioned revealed Godfather means that there's a Cop so counterclaim was inevitable if I'm scum.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:20 am UTC

Well then I'm super confused. I want to see what the truth is because it's... so weird.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:21 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar - voted incorrectly D1, incorrectly D2, claimed cop, roleblocked N1, town me and emlightened N2
Dimochka - didn't vote D1, correctly D2, claimed gun maker, targeted Sabrar N1, emlightened N2.

For completeness sake please add "could have saved scum-buddy D1 but didn't" to both of us.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:42 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: you might as well claim your penpal as with process of elimination it should be fairly clear to anyone who it is.
I'm jimbob's pen-pal. (We discussed it last night and agreed to claim but I didn't have time to post.)
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:48 am UTC

Thanks. Please also confirm that he revealed himself as Cop during D2.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:20 am UTC

I could easily see Madge as a scum recruit, since she came out of D1 looking particularly good. Her behaviour is consistent with being an independent, though.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:33 am UTC

@jimbob: did flicky also claim his ability to you during D2?

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:48 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Thanks. Please also confirm that he revealed himself as Cop during D2.
Yes, he did.

I hadn't revealed my ability to him - there was still a chance he was scum then.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 23, 2016 7:21 am UTC

My current assumptions (some of which were explained before):

Assumption1: we did not start out with 2 scum + cult leader + indie survivor.
Assumption2: we did not start out with 3 scum.
Assumption3: we do not have an SK (or Arsenist or Poisoner or similar role with NK).

Therefore if Madge is telling the truth then either Mafia recruited someone N1 instead of NK or we have an anti-town indie who is not SK, most likely Lyncher.
So this is my proposal: if you're a Lyncher please claim, we will lynch your target today and kill you tonight, ending the game with Survivor + Lyncher + Town victory (Obviously in case you're a Lyncher for Madge then the above doesn't apply but then the game should have ended by now as it's not anti-town per se).
If you're any other kind of anti-town indie whose win condition does not contradict ours please do the same.
This is to ensure both your and our win.

If there's no claim then either Madge is lying and we should lynch her regardless or there was a one-time only recruitment (almost surely N1 as explained previously).
Possibilities that can be excluded:
mpolo: was investigated N2
jimbob: same
emlightened: same
Dj: was scum D1

Possibilities that are unlikely:
Carlington: voted with Dj so under suspicion
dimochka: would have given gun N2 to penpal making almost certain that it wouldn't be used against him.

Possibilities that are still possible:
Sabrar
flicky
Madge
moody

Same plan as before: we lynch Madge today (takes also care of 'lying Madge' scenario), I kill moody, emlightened kills me. dimochka gives gun to mpolo, jimbob investigates dimochka. If everything checks out and game is still not over you lynch flicky tomorrow.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 23, 2016 7:47 am UTC

Additional thoughts because I was in a rush and missed things:

- scum couldn't have recruited N2 as they were both dead
- Carlington couldn't have been the recruitment unless Snark falsified his role-pm
- dimochka couldn't have been the recruitment as he voted for Carlington.

So unless Cop is extremely useless and we have a third GF above plan should work.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:02 am UTC

I'm not entirely awake yet, so I haven't got the concentration to go through Sabrar's logic in depth, although it sounds reasonable on first glance.

On Carlington being recruited - very unlikely given his ability.
On dimochka being scum from D1 - he could have given a booby trapped gun to Sabrar, with the expectation that Sabrar would kill himself with it.
On 3 scum being possible from start - with flicky's claim, we actually gain a day, I believe. Say we mislynched flicky D1, N1 is skipped, giving us a 6-3 split which is one more mislynch. However, if there are three scum, Madge would have to be one of them, as discussed earlier, thus dimochka can't be a mafia member from start unless we have a particularly mean setup.

Assuming flicky did not lie about his ability, he couldn't have been recruited N1, as I got a result on him, which means I was the only one to target him. I guess there's a possibility that I get Town as my result if my ability fails, though I doubt it.

Ninja'ed by Sabrar.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:40 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I guess there's a possibility that I get Town as my result if my ability fails, though I doubt it.
I considered this possibility at the time (i.e. that mafia targeted me for death and you investigated me, therefore causing both abilities to fail), but note that Sabrar got no result on emlightened N1, indicating that blocking a cop doesn't give a townie result. So, if both you and Sabrar are telling the truth, your result on me must be accurate.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:19 pm UTC

There's no guarantee that Sabrar's and my abilities are identical (in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they are different in some aspect, assuming we are both cops). Your point is still valid though.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby dimochka » Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:50 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:On dimochka being scum from D1 - he could have given a booby trapped gun to Sabrar, with the expectation that Sabrar would kill himself with it.

Yeah definitely, but keep in mind that I didn't have to mention the booby trap thing at all if I were scum (in the beginning or on D3). And this is also why I recommended one of the strategies as lynching me first.
I'm on board with sabrar's suggestions.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby dimochka » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:17 am UTC

FYI it's my birthday weekend and I will be away so I probably won't respond to much until Sunday night / Monday.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby emlightened » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:35 am UTC

♫ Happy birthday to dimo.

Wow, a lot happened whilst I was gone. I'll be back tomorrow night and have a check through all the plans so far, but Sabrar's suggestion seems like a good idea at the moment.
Bleb. Idk when I'm returning.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby emlightened » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:40 am UTC

Also, sorry I forgot, yes, dimo did give me a one-shot gun.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:10 pm UTC

So... we all happy with the plan to lynch Madge first?
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:14 pm UTC

I overlooked a tiny detail when making my plan, so after asking for permission from my penpal here is some additional info that I can provide:
Given that there was no kill during N2 scum had to target either myself (protected by emlightened) or Madge (bulletproof) for it to fail. However my penpal is Madge, meaning that if either of us is the last scum, then we deliberately tried to kill our penpal, giving up the only protection we had (assuming role details work similar to previously revealed ones). This makes me wonder if lynching Madge is the correct idea today.
So here is my plan B (with more analysis than last time):
We lynch moody (thereby also taking away scum!dimochka's protection), I kill flicky, rest is unchanged (emlightened kills me, dimochka gives gun to mpolo, jimbob investigates dimochka).
By killing flicky Town has 2 lynches in a row without having to worry about losing numerical superiority as there will be 4 players alive D4, 2 of which are confirmed Town (considering {mpolo, jimbob, emlightened} as confirmed here).
If flicky is alive and 2 of these 3 are dead then dimochka had to rig the guns so lynch him next.
If 5 players are alive and flicky is among them then scum targeted him for some reason (or scum!flicky is Bulletproof due to penpal protection). In that case lynch flicky just to be sure, skip the night, lynch Madge next, mpolo kills dimochka N5. In case mpolo died N3 jimbob should have correct result on dimochka so last part is not needed.

I have a small bias towards this version as Madge wrote hearfelt pm-s to me about how she doesn't want to die but I'll let others decide as I'm not the best judge of character.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:16 pm UTC

I think I'm losing track of the claims. Wouldn't it be possible that Madge is bulletproof and while her penpal is alive she can direct the bulletproof to someone else? Which would then make trying to kill her penpal after she had no more scum mates make sense.

I'm still not 100% convinced, but is this a possible reading of the facts?
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:38 pm UTC

I guess that's possible.


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