Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

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Sabrar
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:48 pm UTC

EBWOP: also we could forgo any pre-established plan altogether, because if third scum's main power is Redirector then it could screw us over really hard.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:11 pm UTC

So, my main reactions are as follows: I guess I shouldn't be surprised that I'm in everyone's lynch eventually list. A couple people made a big deal about how me going last in claiming results was a scummy point. I've never had a real solid feel on that whole claim order issue. My opinion as to what should happen next is:

D3: lynch Madge
N3: vig flicky
D4: lynch me (I don't think it will get this far, but if it will make you more comfortable...)
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:15 pm UTC

I just gave this thread a quick skim before bed due to the chat me and sabrar had via pm earlier, so this is brief:

I confirm sabrars story and we breadcrumbed d1 if anyone is suspicious

I really appreciate the opportunity to survive another night, I wish I could do something to repay the favour.

My role doesn't do any crazy redirection so no fear there, I can only save myself from death.

As I told sabrar and said earlier I'm basically convinced one of our cops has to be the last scum, but sabrar has been so very townie and has town on jimbob so?????? In this plan sabrar dies and we can see one way or another what's up with jimbob so yeah. I have no problem with it. I am with sabrars plan.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:47 pm UTC

There's at least one important piece of information I think we are missing, namely what is Madge's pen pal ability? I'd like to hear that from her before we make a final decision.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby emlightened » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:55 pm UTC

Oh, just thought of a new plan: since random.org is confirmed town we all vote for ourselves, and let random.org decide :P.

Sabrar - voted incorrectly* D1, incorrectly D2 - Madge's pen pal - claimed cop, roleblocked N1, town jimbob and emlightened N2
Madge - voted correctly D1, incorrectly D2 - Sabrar's pen pal - claimed bulletproof survivor (penpal abilty unknown)
Moody - voted correctly D1, incorrectly D2 - dimochka's pen pal - claimed tracker, claimed tracked emlightened to jimbob N1, claimed tracked mpolo to nobody N2 and dimochka to emlightened.
Dimochka - didn't vote* D1, correctly D2 - Moody's pen pal - claimed gun maker (penpal ability: can sabotage), targeted Sabrar N1, emlightened N2.
Flicky - voted correctly N1, correctly N2 - jimbob's pen pal - claimed lighthouse keeper, (penpal ability: immune to all night actions if more than one used)
jimbob - voted incorrectly N1, correctly N2 - flicky's pen pal - claimed cop (penpal ability unknown), town on flicky N1, town on mpolo N2.
Mpolo - voted incorrectly D1, did not vote D2 - dead!Dj's pen pal - claimed self-watcher, saw nobody N1, jimbob and moody N2.
emlightened - voted correctly N1, correctly N2 - dead!Carlington's pen pal - claimed doctor, protected (if he's not scum) jimbob N1, Sabrar N2
*but could have swung it away from a tie

@Sabrar: Generally, I like to keep the survivors alive. It seems mean not to, so if it's a possibility for Madge, I think we should do it.

Okay, just went through possibilities for there being a SK, and it would require jimbob or Madge to be hit N1, and Madge or Sabrar (or flicky, if Madge has some penpal ability she can use on him) to be hit N2. (This is exactly the same for it to have happened to scum for N1, and N2 if there's still remaining scum.)

So that looks fairly unlikely; it's basically the same as the SK also choosing to hit jimbob/Madge N1, if we ignore potential motives. I don't think our strategy would change anyway if we did have a SK instead of a third scum, so that was kinda pointless.

I'm going to go with the assumption that we only have one anti-town player left, and that everyone else is telling the truth.
I'm almost definitely town, because of votals, and moody confirming my N1 visit to jimbob, and Sabrar's result on me.
mpolo's almost definitely town, because he predicted jimbob and moody, moody confirmed he didn't move, and jimbob's result on him.
jimbob's almost definitely town, because of the deceased likelihood of scum hitting Madge, Sabrar (from my pen-pal ability) and Sabrar's result on him.
flicky's very probably town, due to the votals and jimbob's result.
dimo is likely town, due to the votals and the potential danger of revealing an ability like that.
Can't say much for the other three; nobody else's claims particularly support them. Nothing 'abnormal' seems to be the case behaviour-wise, except Madge does seem survivor.

I also can't see why Sabrar is in favour of lynching flicky; there's no total gain (unless it's in case flicky is the last scum). If I had to choose now, I think I'd vote moody (ewxcluding flicky, assuming that to be the case).

Ninja'd by jimbob: I agree. Would you mind pointing out your ability, too?
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:56 pm UTC

She told me via pm previously, to reveal it could potentially let scum know if she is still protected. To use an analogue you could say she is 2-shot bulletproof but if I die it eats a shot from her as well.
BTW if I remember correctly you haven't shared your penpal ability either. And we know it's not the same as mine. :wink:

Ninja: was in reply to jimbob.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:02 pm UTC

Quick reply to emlightened: if last anti-town player is indie then votals will not help determining who it is.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:05 pm UTC

Sorry for all the double posts.

emlightened wrote:I also can't see why Sabrar is in favour of lynching flicky;

flicky alive is useless to us with no ability, flicky dead either wins us the game or allows for two lynches without anything messing inbetween, also removes potential protection from scum!jimbob.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:31 pm UTC

My pen pal ability gives me an alternative action on even numbered nights, which I decided not to use. I don't see any great benefit to sharing what it is today, but will do so tomorrow, or if everybody really thinks it necessary. I also have an innate trait that means I know I wasn't targeted by a kill N1, so presumably scum either had a recruit N1 instead of a faction kill, or targeted Madge. I'm not going to reveal this trait, as I think it's more useful that scum don't know what it is. It is related to why emlightened shouldn't protect me. I told flicky what it was, as well as my pen pal ability on D2, alongside my main claim.

Sabrar, have you considered the possibility that one or both of us is naive in your plan? I'm assuming we aren't both, but we do need to make sure that any plan isn't tied too closely to those results, if we can.

I'll try to go through the plan on Sunday evening, once I'm home again. I'm unlikely to get any time to post before then.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:55 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar, have you considered the possibility that one or both of us is naive in your plan?

If I'm Naive then I'm totally useless as I don't have an alternate action. Theoretically you could be Naive, however mpolo is proven to have Watcher so probably didn't start out as scum (and if he did with 2 scum remaining there was no rush to come forward and claim at the start of D2) and almost surely wasn't recruited either as his penpal died D1 (and scum should have known this unless they don't have daychat) so he could be assumed to only have a weaker ability. The plan includes killing flicky at some point so his alignment shouldn't matter.
If your above statement about claiming to flicky is true then a) I can finally stop figuring out ways you could be scum. :) and b) Madge's bulletproofness is needed to explain the 'N1 no kill' if there was no recruitment.

Okay, time to go through the possible scenarios (always assuming that only 1 player is lying at this point as emlightened already mentioned):
1. Somehow we started out with 3 scum. Then obviously we can't have an anti-town indie as well and scum has standard NK. Now given that emlightened claims to have protected jimbob who claims to not have been targeted by NK, there are only 2 possbilities why NK could have failed:
- scum targeted Madge. This is quite possible as we cleared Madge from having ties to Dj pretty quickly.
- scum targeted flicky with second ability. However this is unlikely as why would they target someone who they plan to kill anyway? Plus roleblock was used on me.
This means that Madge's claim has to be true, last scum almost surely voted for jimbob D2 (D1 is unreliable in this regard I feel), so fmpov must be moody but I should die as well sometime in the future.
2. Scum recruited someone N1. As explained already here (plus EBWOP) that player has to be among {flicky, Madge, moody, Sabrar}. Very unlikely that we have an anti-town indie in addition to that. Any plan that takes care of those 4 should be good.
3. There is an anti-town indie among us, almost certainly not SK. Process of elimination doesn't work at finding him/her, most likely not among {emlightened, jimbob, mpolo}, so our best bet is a plan that kills everyone else.
4. Snark came up with something totally new, which I'm not going to attempt to guess.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:10 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:If your above statement about claiming to flicky is true
It is, for the record. And I agree with his points about it.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:31 pm UTC

Sunday doldrums. Ordinarily, I would see bulletproof as a pretty townie power, however with the viliganitizator in the mix, I could see both scum and town receiving a benefit from that power, so I guess that's a dead-end on that line of reasoning.

So, there are a couple of plans bouncing around. One is to kill flicky, assuming his claimed power is true, thus allowing us to have a second lynch without intervening mafia action. It's a clever idea, but I don't know that I want to do it right now, as I really have no reason to suspect flicky, other than a possible recruit, I guess.

Otherwise we have as unconfirmed -- Sabrar, moody, Madge, flicky (though flicky has more "points in favor" at this point).
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:02 pm UTC

I just found out that I'll be out most of Monday, though I should be on in the evening.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:00 pm UTC

I could see the advantages to lynching me before I even posted my ability, but not claiming would have been even more suspicious, so...
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:39 pm UTC

Ok, home again, so here goes. I'm going to be posting my analysis of all our survivors, and the different likely setups. I'm aware that a lot of this is likely to be duplication of other people's information, but it's easier for me to do this myself than analyse everybody else's.

emlightened: Copped by Sabrar N2 with a Town result. Therefore, Town, unless a) Sabrar is lying, b) Sabrar is not sane, c) emlightened has some sort of godfatherdom, d) Sabrar was redirected, e) was recruited N2. As noted by Sabrar, (naive/paranoid/random)!Sabrar would make his ability useless; insane!Sabrar is unlikely, due to two Town results when we already have 2 dead scum. I suppose other options could be possible, e.g. sane, unless somebody else targets the same person, etc, but I'd go crazy trying to analyse those possibilities, so I'm going to assume Sabrar is either lying or sane. Godfather!emlightened seems unlikely since we already have had two anti-cop scum powers revealed. Thinking about the setup, I doubt a redirector is going to be present - the reason is that there are at least two people who have claimed to be able to target two people on the same night (moody and Sabrar). Whilst, it wouldn't be impossible to have a redirector with this, but it could get rather over-complicated. Ergo, the only way that emlightened would be scum, is if Sabrar is lying. If Sabrar is lying, then that makes him scum, or indie. But if emlightend is scum (or anti-town indie) and Sabrar is scum or indie, that would mean 3 scum plus 2 indies, which seems like too many. For emlightened to have been recruited N2, there would have to be at least 1 other scum still alive (I'm going to ignore the weird option of delayed recruiting). That would imply 3 scum with a recruit, which seems a bit extreme. Therefore, emlightened is likely Town.

mpolo: Copped by me N2 with a Town result. Everything I said about emlightened is equally valid about mpolo, but with the added fact that there's even less chance of me lying since Sabrar also copped me. Therefore, mpolo is likely Town.

(for completeness)jimbobmacdoodle: Copped by Sabrar N2 with a Town result. Everything I said about emlightened applies to me exactly. Therefore, I am Town. Also, I can't have been redirected N2, since mpolo saw me.

flicky: Copped by me N1 with a Town result. Therefore, Town, unless a) I am lying, b) I am not sane, c) flicky has some sort of godfatherdom, d) I was redirected, e) flicky was recruited N2, f) flicky was recruited N1. a), c), d), and e) can be dismissed by the same logic for emlightened. b) is marginally more possible for me than Sabrar, owing to my alternative ability. f) requires flicky to be lying about his ability, which is possible as he did not tell me his ability, as otherwise I couldn't have got a result on him. I doubt flicky is scum, as he has been pro lynching scum on both days, though I suppose recruit!flicky wouldn't have known D1, and had to choose between lynching his partner and bussing his scum-buddy. Also, lying about his ability would have been foolish, as Town actually has a motive to lynch him even if we aren't sure about his alignment. Could be scum, but unlikely. I guess that anti-town indie!flicky is also possible if I am not sane.

Sabrar: Claimed cop before I'd claimed. Must have known that a cop was extremely likely, so seems like a legitimate claim, but could be gambling that we'd accept both as possible, due to this very reason. Nobody has any results on him. The only thing that could theoretically call him out is if either me or emlightened were independents. I'm not, and I'm reasonably confident that emlightened is not, given her claim. Did not vote for DJ, but could have saved him. Did not vote for Carlington. Insufficient information to determine if Sabrar is Town or not.

dimochka: His ability has been confirmed by emlightened and Sabrar, so is likely true, though we don't know for certain that they aren't trapped. It's a fair point that dimochka had no requirement to tell us about the ability to booby trap the gun, but again he could have revealed this info to try to get trust. No particular reason to trust him any more than Sabrar.

Madge: Claimed bulletproof survivor. Hasn't claimed a penpal power. Her D1 actions seem to suggest she is not co-aligned with DJ, but could still have been recruited N1, or be anti-town indie. Her actions were also consistent with her meta, but also with being a survivor or other indie. If scum tried to use a kill N1, must have been the target, which would have been consistent with how she would have looked D2. Similarly, she was a reasonable recruit target N1.

Moody: Tracker claims all consistent with other claimed actions. Definitely targeted mpolo N2 (or there's something weird going on involving too many people co-operating and lying), who didn't die. Possibly scum!moody has both the ability to use a personal ability and a faction ability. Nothing to particular mark him as Town.

People (almost) definitely not scum: Me, emlightened, mpolo.
Everyone else could be scum, from what I can tell.

emlightened and Sabrar have optional vig shots tonight. We obviously have a lynch available today. That's three of five possible candidates dealt with tonight, leaving two to deal with tomorrow, and 4-5 people left tomorrow, depending on the nature of scum's ability, and how they use it tonight. I guess 3 might be possible as well, if e.g. scum's pen pal ability is to kill two people on a one off. In all likelihood that will be MYLO.

@flicky - I wasn't clear on this. If you are lynched, does that night get skipped?

Assume for a moment that dimochka didn't booby trap either gun: if we lynch dimochka, Sabrar kills moody, and emlightened kills Sabrar, scum will kill someone tonight (one of me, emlightened or mpolo presumably), leaving us with flicky and Madge alive, and potentially no further information, so we have to choose between two people. Lynching flicky should give us an extra day, allowing us to lynch Madge afterwards if needed. This gives Town a win (barring weirdness), and Madge as well, if she is a survivor, as claimed. Madge could block the lynch in partnership with scum, if she really wanted to, but there's no particular reason to, as far as I can see. Similar story if we lynch moody, but see below. Obviously, we could lynch Madge for the same logic, but then she'd not win with us. We couldn't lynch Sabrar first, because that would lead to us having one less vig. We could swap around who emlightened kills from Sabrar to flicky. However, if scum had a special ability, they could block the kill on flicky. We could lynch flicky first, but then we can't as easily react to unexpected night results.

If dimochka booby trapped either gun, he is obviously scum. Therefore, we should win before Night, if we lynched him. In the event that we don't, dimochka is not scum, and we can therefore trust the guns and continue onwards. This is assuming that we don't have 4 anti-town, which would seem completely unbalanced. If Sabrar is scum, he will die tonight to emlightened's shot, which should end the game, even if he didn't target moody.

I think that all adds up. If anybody disagrees with that assessment, please let me know. The biggest flaw is if either we are mistaken in thinking mpolo, myself or emlightened are Town, or if Madge decides to side with scum!flicky.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:47 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@flicky - I wasn't clear on this. If you are lynched, does that night get skipped?
Yep, death during the day skips the immediately-following night and goes straight to the day after my death. Death during the night means that night is followed by two days in a row.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:11 pm UTC

Thanks, flicky.

Just looking at Sabrar's plan B, I think it has the same flaw as my plan, namely that Madge needs to vote with town. Otherwise, scum could kill mpolo tonight, who dimochka was going to give a gun to, leaving me, Madge, emlightened, and dimochka, and no ability to lynch without Madge's help, except to lynch Madge.

We could try lynching Madge at that point, if she tries to block the the lynch of scum. However, the sole scum member (if not Madge) could block the lynch, and give survivor!Madge the win, with scum.

I think if we don't want to trust Madge, the only way around this is to lynch her first tonight. We should then be able to tell if dimochka sabotaged the guns following the night's kills:
Sabrar - dead, moody - dead, emlightened - alive. Dimochka did not sabotage any guns. Continue as per default plan (follow my result, or mpolo shoots someone as needed, if I was NK'ed).
Sabrar - dead, moody - dead, emlightened - dead. Dimochka did not sabotage any guns, and scum NK'ed emlightened. Continue as per default plan - my result indicates who to trust.
Sabrar - dead, moody - alive, emlightened - alive. Dimochka sabotaged Sabrar's gun (or moody would be dead). Lynch dimochka.
Sabrar - dead, moody - alive, emlightened - dead. Dimochka sabotaged Sabrar's gun (and possibly emlightened's) (or moody would be dead). Lynch dimochka.
Sabrar - alive, moody - dead, emlightened - alive. Shouldn't be possible, but if it did happen, indicates a redirector or scum!emlightened, or multiple people lying etc.
Sabrar - alive, moody - dead, emlightened - dead. Dimochka sabotaged emlightened's gun (or Sabrar would be dead). Lynch dimochka.
Sabrar - alive, moody - alive, emlightened - alive. Shouldn't be possible, but if it did happen, would indicate multiple people lying (at least Sabrar, emlightened)...
Sabrar - alive, moody - alive, emlightened - dead. Shouldn't be possible, but if it did happen, would indicate multiple people lying (at least Sabrar, dimochka)...

This logic doesn't hold up if scum have access to multiple kills. I'd like to let Madge win, but I'm not sure how much we can trust that she is willing to go with town.

@Madge - please answer my earlier question re. your pen pal ability, and also, please make a case as to why we shouldn't lynch you to likely get a Town win.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:23 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar - dead, moody - dead, emlightened - dead. Dimochka did not sabotage any guns, and scum NK'ed emlightened. Continue as per default plan - my result indicates who to trust.
Or dimochka sabotaged the guns, killed moody himself and Cop action is resolved before kills allowing his penpal protection to give him Town result on your investigation.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar - dead, moody - alive, emlightened - alive. Dimochka sabotaged Sabrar's gun (or moody would be dead). Lynch dimochka
Or moody is scum, having Bulletproof from penpal protection.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar - alive, moody - dead, emlightened - alive. Shouldn't be possible, but if it did happen, indicates a redirector or scum!emlightened, or multiple people lying etc.
Won't happen but most likely explanation would be that I'm scum, knowing that penpal protection gives me Bulletproof and that's why I advocated this plan.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:29 pm UTC

Sabrar answered it - I'm 2-shot bulletproof, and Sabrar's death eats one of those shots. I'd rather not say how the shot is eaten because I don't want scum (or a gunslinger) to have more information about how to kill me, since at this point I'm probably getting lynched tomorrow if I'm lucky, so I'd prefer to cling to my last little lifeline which is unaffected by the lynch.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby dimochka » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:32 am UTC

I really quickly skimmed the thread and will read in more detail tonight.

For the record, I am fine with being lynched tonight (if people even want to lynch me) under two conditions: (1) we have a clearly figured-out plan, and (2) we account for the fact that some kind of anti-town can have a 1-shot gun as well (or a regular kill ability) in this plan. This could be one of emlightened/sabrar, or someone else completely. I just want to make sure we cover all bases. As long as we do that and it makes sense to lynch me, perfectly fine with it.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby dimochka » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:33 am UTC

ebwop: i did not read the full day's thread, just the first half or so. so it is possible that some of the things i said were already covered.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:07 am UTC

So many players willing to be sacrificed for the greater good. :)

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Thinking about the setup, I doubt a redirector is going to be present - the reason is that there are at least two people who have claimed to be able to target two people on the same night (moody and Sabrar). Whilst, it wouldn't be impossible to have a redirector with this, but it could get rather over-complicated.

I don't agree with this, Redirector is a very likely 3rd scum-power in my opinion and can be easily resolved in multiple ways against multi-targeting abilities.
Also it is the main reason why none of our plans will be 100% fool-proof, as otherwise we could do the following for example.

Plan C
Spoiler:
Assumptions used in following plan:
- {emlightened, jimbob, mpolo} are Town,
- killing anyone other than those 3 gives scum less room to hide, so not going to happen,
- Cops are Sane,
- only 1 lying player remains,
- his protection from night actions is dependent on penpal being alive, similar to previously revealed roles
- no redirection or otherwise interfering with other players' abilities

lynch moody, both cops investigate dimochka, he gives gun to mpolo, emlightened uses Doctor but doesn't tell us the target. Should have maximum 1 death at night, these are the possibilities:
1. jimbob is alive D4
1/a: 2 Town results on dimochka -> he is Town, last scum is amongst {flicky, Madge, Sabrar} -> lynch flicky, skip night, lynch Madge, emlightened or mpolo shoots me during the night.
1/b: 2 Non-town results on dimochka -> we lynch him, done.
1/c: 1 of each result -> I'm lying about my results, so lynch me.
2. scum killed jimbob, rip.
2/a: I claim Town result -> dimochka is Town, see 1/a on how to proceed.
2/b: I claim non-Town -> last scum is in {dimochka, Sabrar}, lynch dimochka, shoot me at night, if I remain alive lynch me next day (doesn't work in reverse as guns might be rigged)

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:23 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:So many players willing to be sacrificed for the greater good. :)
Hey, there's no reason for non-scum to be advocating self-preservation at this point! (Well, the Survivor, I guess.)
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:14 am UTC

Sabrar makes some fair points about me making too many assumptions with regards to what the pen pal abilities are.

One more thing to throw into the mechanism: my pen pal ability could deal with the situation of Madge blocking the lynch D4. I'd therefore like, if possible, for us to not kill flicky tonight, and kill dimochka instead. Giving mpolo a gun is also a requirement for this idea to be possible (scum have to choose between the two of us then).

In the case that we are still going tomorrow, town!flicky votes to self-lynch, and is joined by the two other town still living. Scum!flicky presumably won't, but then we know he is scum, allowing us to deal with him that night one way or another. This idea doesn't work if we don't know if we can trust the guns.

For this to work, we lynch moody. Sabrar kills dimochka. Emlightened kills Sabrar. If dimochka is still alive, either Sabrar didn't target him, or dimochka spiked Sabrar's gun. The first should be covered by Sabrar's flip, or he is scum with NK protection. The second suggests lynching dimochka. I'm going to continue to ignore redirectors because I doubt we can make a foolproof plan with them. We should reevaluate tomorrow if anything doesn't go as planned.

To address dimochka's concerns: if Sabrar is scum, he dies tonight. I highly doubt emlightened is scum for reasons discussed earlier. I'll think about that case a bit more.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:02 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:One more thing to throw into the mechanism: my pen pal ability could deal with the situation of Madge blocking the lynch D4. I'd therefore like, if possible, for us to not kill flicky tonight, and kill dimochka instead. Giving mpolo a gun is also a requirement for this idea to be possible (scum have to choose between the two of us then).

Don't see how this would work if scum!flicky has also some sort of protection due to you being alive (he would obviously kill mpolo tonight).

Also I considered flicky to be almost certainly Town because his main ability is very pro-Town and I doubt he just made it up. However I realized that it also could have been given to scum order to balance out the setup. Granted he would have had to bus pretty hard both D1 and D2 but as we have no previous experience regarding him it still could be possible (also he didn't have the option to vote for you D2 after you claimed Cop).

I think if last scum is redirector then we're likely to be screwed anyway, especially if we use up all our vig shots tonight. Therefore I'm more in favor of my plan C at the moment.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:19 am UTC

If flicky refuses to self-lynch, he must be scum. Madge then has to decide whether to support us or go against us. If she goes against Town and blocks the lynch, she cannot guarantee a win (I'll explain why if needed tomorrow - I don't want to reveal my pen pal ability until then). Therefore, she can only guarantee a win by helping us lynch scum!flicky. I'm assuming that there are no scum with lynch immunity, or that if they are lynch immune, then they are not night action immune.

I don't have time to look at Plan C at the moment. Will do so this evening, probably.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:21 am UTC

EBWOP: If scum decide they can't risk my ability, then they have to kill me N3 instead of gun-wielding mpolo, who simply kills flicky N4, if he doesn't self-lynch.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:01 am UTC

Given that I'm being spared today I'm more than happy to side with town in a kingmaker situation; the only time I wouldn't would be is if scum makes a convincing argument as to why they were actually the ones who led to the plan not involving my imminent lynch, and I think it was spearheaded by Sabrar who has had ample opportunity to come clean to me via PM, or even drop a hint, which hasn't happened.

So yeah, I don't foresee myself siding with scum under any reasonably foreseeable circumstance.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:11 pm UTC

I am back. I have a feeling that if there were a redirector, we would have felt its effects by now, but then again, we could have gotten lucky.

I think we need to get one plan very clearly and concisely laid out so that we're all on the same page. I'm a little worried about the possibility of both guns being booby-trapped, but that would point us directly at the last scum (and if we're lynching dimochka, strike that objection).
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:22 pm UTC

According to my plan (lynch moody, emlightened shoots Sabrar, Sabrar shoots dimochka), if dimochka is scum, and he booby trapped Sabrar's gun, he would still be alive. The only reason other than that for dimochka to still be alive is if Sabrar either chose not to shoot dimochka, or was somehow redirected or blocked by a scum action. If Sabrar chose not to, he is presumably scum, meaning that the guns are not booby trapped (because I doubt both Sabrar and dimochka are scum), and emlightened should have killed Sabrar, so we'll have won (probably). The difficulty will be is if Sabrar is dead, but not dimochka, was Sabrar's gun booby trapped, or was he blocked/redirected somehow? Whether or not emlightened is dead (possibly through a booby trapped gun) filters into that, but scum!dimochka could easily have chosen to trap only one of the guns.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:44 pm UTC

That's why it is important in my opinion to kill (or at least investigate) dimochka before we use his guns.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby dimochka » Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:16 pm UTC

I think the leap of thought that doesn't align for me is assuming that madge really is a survivor and not some other anti-town entity. I could see Madge being the third scum, or a scum supporter (who doesn't know her teammates), or some kind of even/odd night SK. I know it's unlikely, but I want to make sure that those scenarios are covered as well. Essentially this really pings me:
Madge wrote:Given that I'm being spared today I'm more than happy to side with town in a kingmaker situation

There is really no difference for her as to who to side with, and the fact that she suggests being a kingmaker specifically really does not sit well with me.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:32 pm UTC

Kingmaker scenario requires 3 separate factions. If Madge is the last scum then the rest of us are Town, we have no indies and there never will be a situation where she can be kingmaker.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:52 pm UTC

Sabrar's Plan C:
Spoiler:
Assumptions used in following plan:
- {emlightened, jimbob, mpolo} are Town,
- killing anyone other than those 3 gives scum less room to hide, so not going to happen,
- Cops are Sane,
- only 1 lying player remains,
- his protection from night actions is dependent on penpal being alive, similar to previously revealed roles
- no redirection or otherwise interfering with other players' abilities

lynch moody, both cops investigate dimochka, he gives gun to mpolo, emlightened uses Doctor but doesn't tell us the target. Should have maximum 1 death at night, these are the possibilities:
1. jimbob is alive D4
1/a: 2 Town results on dimochka -> he is Town, last scum is amongst {flicky, Madge, Sabrar} -> lynch flicky, skip night, lynch Madge, emlightened or mpolo shoots me during the night.
1/b: 2 Non-town results on dimochka -> we lynch him, done.
1/c: 1 of each result -> I'm lying about my results, so lynch me.
2. scum killed jimbob, rip.
2/a: I claim Town result -> dimochka is Town, see 1/a on how to proceed.
2/b: I claim non-Town -> last scum is in {dimochka, Sabrar}, lynch dimochka, shoot me at night, if I remain alive lynch me next day (doesn't work in reverse as guns might be rigged)
First up, his assumptions are reasonable to me, and are basically the same as mine. I don't think it hurts to review them, tomorrow if an unexpected situation comes up (such as different results on dimochka), but we can discuss that tomorrow.

Case 1.a:
D4 alive = one of {emlightened, mpolo} plus me, dimochka, Sabrar, flicky, Madge. 4-1-1. Lynch flicky.
D5 alive = one of {emlightened, mpolo} plus me, dimochka, Sabrar, Madge. 3-1-1. Lynch Madge. emlightened/mpolo shoot Sabrar.
D6 alive = max of two of {me, emlightened, mpolo, dimochka}. 1-0-0 (If Sabrar uses his gun to kill town) or 2-0-0. Town win.

Two possible issues with this is that Sabrar could kill someone N3 with a gun, or scum would have reason to kill dimochka N3.
Case 1.a.i (scum kill dimochka): Unchanged from case 1.a.i, but with all of {me, emlightened, mpolo} alive, instead of dimochka. Tactics do not require him to be alive, so town win.
Case 1.a.ii (Sabrar kills someone N3): one of {me, emlightened, mpolo} plus dimochka, Sabrar, flicky, Madge. 3-1-1. Sabrar must have killed someone, so lynch him. Town + survivor win.
So case 1.a is valid.

Case 1.b, 1.c: agreed.
Case 2.a agreed (lying!Sabrar doesn't make sense, because that would imply two scum remaining, or dimochka is indie).

Case 2.b:
D4 alive = emlightened, mpolo, dimochka, Sabrar, flicky, Madge. 4-1-1. Lynch dimochka. Shoot Sabrar. Scum kill someone.
D5 alive = max two of {emlightened, mpolo, flicky}, Madge. 2/1-0-1 (if Sabrar shoots someone). Therefore Town + survivor win.
Alternative D5 if Sabrar is not dead (implies night action protection for Sabrar):
D5 alive = max two of {emlightened, mpolo, flicky}, Madge, Sabrar. 2/1-1-1. Relies on Madge to lynch Sabrar. Guaranteed Survivor win either way.
Sabrar appears to have made a mistake here, or at least he hasn't highlighted town's reliance on Madge in this case.

I don't like how case 2.b not only means we have to rely on Madge, but also it conveniently means Sabrar survives. We might get lucky if Madge's second bulletproofness is at the cost of Sabrar's life. If that is the case, emlightened shoots Sabrar N4, and mpolo shoots Madge. Scum kills one of them, (or both if Sabrar shoots one). That leaves D5 alive = Madge (if Sabrar had night action immunity, but dies due to Madge being shot), and one or two of {flicky, mpolo, emlightened} which means Town win, possibly with survivor.

I'm going to do another post considering alternative options.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:04 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar appears to have made a mistake here,

Mistakes comes simply from knowing that I don't have any kind of protection. :)
Will try again a bit later.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:15 pm UTC

What if emlightened specifically protects jimbob? Wouldn't it rule out case 2.b entirely?
Guess not if scum has unblockable kill but in that case dimochka can't be scum as having gun-ability plus unblockable kill seems very wrong to me, so if emlightened protects jimbob AND jimbob dies AND I claim non-Town on dimochka then I must be scum, right?
Obviously always assuming that scum has no redirection...

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:18 pm UTC

EBWOP: this also does not take into account jimbob's unknown ability. But why would he decline protection and be worried that he dies at the same time?

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:39 pm UTC

Possible options today, broadly based on the same assumptions as Sabrar's plan C:

A. Lynch flicky

That leaves us with no further info come D4, so seems like a bad idea.

B. Lynch Madge

If Sabrar and I cop Madge, and dimochka gives mpolo a gun, we are in the same situation as Sabrar's Plan C, except that we don't have to worry about Madge siding with scum. Guaranteed Town win therefore, I believe.

C. Lynch Sabrar

emlightened does not use gun. I cop dimochka. Dimochka gives mpolo a gun.
D4 alive = two of {emlightened, mpolo, me} plus dimochka, Madge, moody, flicky. 4-1-1.
case a) I am still alive. If scum on dimochka, lynch him, Town win. If town on dimochka, lynch flicky.
D5 alive = me, one of {emlightened, mpolo}, dimochka, Madge, moody. 3-1-1, lynch moody, shoot Madge.
D6 alive = three of {me, mpolo, dimochka}, possibly Madge (if still bulletproof). Lynch Madge. Town win.
case b1) I am dead. Lynch dimochka. emlightened shoots flicky, mpolo shoots moody.
D5 alive = one of {emlightened, mpolo}, Madge. 1-1-0. Madge wins. Town wins, if Madge is not anti-town.
case b2) I am dead. Lynch dimochka. emlightened shoots Madge, mpolo shoots moody.
D5 alive = one of {emlightened, mpolo}, flicky, possibly Madge. Town wins, if flicky is Town. Otherwise, if Madge is still alive, she plays kingmaker. Otherwise scum wins.
(I wrote these cases to help me collect thoughts).
case b3) I am dead. Lynch Madge.
D5 alive = one of {emlightened, mpolo}, dimochka, moody, flicky. 3-1-0. Lynch flicky.
D6 alive = one of {emlightened, mpolo}, dimochka, moody. 2-1-0. Lynch dimochka. emlightened/mpolo shoots moody, scum!moody kills emlightened/mpolo. Everybody is dead. Draw?

Who wins if all surviving players die on the same night?

I'm out of time to do any other cases. As of now, I have no guaranteed town method of winning, other than to lynch Madge. I therefore think it is Madge's responsibility to come up with an alternative foolproof plan. I will be voting Madge tomorrow morning, unless I can be convinced that there is an alternative. Sorry, Madge.

Ninja'ed by Sabrar. I want to keep scum guessing as to what my trait is, and I can't explain further without making it obvious. Suffice to say, emlightened should not protect me. I will say that it is not full bulletproofness (one-shot or otherwise), so there is a chance that scum can kill me.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:47 pm UTC

@jimbob: quick reaction, unless emlightened's protection entirely counters your ability then it makes no sense not to ask for it to avoid case 2.b. Your ability shouldn't matter either, I was just wondering aloud as it seemed strange to me.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:50 pm UTC

@flicky: as you know jimbob's actual ability, can you tell me if what I say makes sense or is there really some crazy mechanic that makes it worse for emlightened to protect him?


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