Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby DGames | Bard » Mon May 29, 2017 6:57 am UTC

Hey amigos! Been working all weekend, so it's time for me to get caught up.

kalira wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@SDK: full claim please.

SirGabriel wrote:What does everyone think about doing a mass claim today? At the very least, I would like Bard and SDK to claim, as they're the two who claimed to have info about other players in their PM.


Mass claim usually doesn't go well for town, but I'm willing to consider it. So I'm confused. SDK claimed the way his role interacts with bessie makes her highly likely town, but unless I'm mistaken, bessie didn't confirm she knew the same abt SDK? Or was that all just smokescreen for them being masons together? I don't necessarily want SDK to full claim right now, but I *do* want him to tell us if he was bessie's mason partner.

I'd like Bard to claim before SDK.


Hrmm, I haven't interacted with you much as of yet (actually not at all except for saying that I would consider compromising to your slot since it was pretty inactive via freezeblade). Who in your general opinion is scum/town at this point?

Massclaiming probably isn't necessary yet, I agree.

As for myself claiming, I don't mind claiming if I'm prompted enough from other avenues. I actually think it's beneficial at this point if I do since it will paint a clearer picture of what's going on.

SDK wrote:I don't think it's in town's best interest to have me confirm or deny being masons with bessie. If I am, that confirms me town and gets me killed. If I'm not, that confirms that they should look elsewhere. If you'd like to ask more politely with some reasoning attached, I'd be happy to consider it.

Also Gopher, you shouldn't be speculating on such things. It is not in town's best interest to determine bessie's buddy before it's time.

More later.


Strongly disagree with this considering our interactions yesterday. Bessie claimed to have no reciprocating information on your behalf; if there is a player that claims mason other than yourself, I will be promptly gunning for you because I feel it's unlikely that a mason pair, your connection to Bessie, and my connection to Laserguy are all a part of the game.

Anyway, I had my response to your earlier post, but deadline hit. I'll post it in the following post.

Sabrar wrote:I believe it is in the best interest of town if the mason-buddy claims. This is assuming that s/he doesn't have any additional powers (reasonable given bessie's flip). Reasoning: s/he is currently Vanilla/Innocent Child. Won't have any night results and all advantages of being a mason are lost already. Claiming now also lessens the chance of a counterclaim, or lessens the impact of a mislynch if there is a counterclaim. If scum leaves him/her alive we still have a confirmed townie. If s/he is killed then there is more chance that another townie has a useful result. Also could draw both NK-s (and still could be protected by doc if not). Furthermore we could see who was attacking a confirmed townie.
So in my opinion there are quite a few advantages of the other mason claiming and only 1 drawback (lessens the chance of scum cross-shooting).


Strongly agree with this!

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act I opens

Postby DGames | Bard » Mon May 29, 2017 7:07 am UTC

SDK wrote:
DGames | Bard wrote:In any event, something rubs me the wrong way about the bessie confirmation, as well as the votes at the beginning of the day phase! Forgive me, as I am new here, and so I am still ascertaining the qualities of this stage; where art thy proof of Bessie's innocence? And, can we assume that there are at least 2 forms of vote manipulation at play?

If the few fine individuals of this act that are implying that Bessie is Town based on evidence that Bessie is being voted for at day start by aforementioned nefarious forces, isn't it possible that a scum aligned role targeted another scum aligned role? The flavor seems to imply that there may be two scum factions, but I'm not sure how frequently this sort of thing transpires. Perhaps a more seasoned veteran can offer their wisdom on this matter.


You've stated previously that my confirmation of bessie "rubbed you the wrong way" because you didn't see why I would reveal it so early. That doesn't jive well with the bolded, though. You didn't even understand why Bessie was confirmed. If LaserGuy is mentioned in your role PM as Bessie is in mine, I don't understand how you could have failed to understand what was going on here.


Waaaaaait a minute. Yeah, I didn't really understand why Bessie was confirmed Town at the start. My first impressions were that it was some sort of joke, similar to RVS in DGames (lots of joke voting, claims, etc. that gets discussion spurred), or perhaps people were saying the initial votes at the start of the game implied that Bessie was Town. I was all sorts of, as I explained earlier, bamboozled.

But, uh, what does this have to do with why I felt your claim rubbed me the wrong way after I understood what happened?

Here's the thing: you claimed Bessie was Town right out the gate based on your role pm. This isn't a Townie thing to do; if you are telling the truth, you are effectively jeopardizing Bessie and leaving her to the demons of the night to kill her off, as I said earlier. Of course it rubs me the wrong way, it rubs everyone the wrong way, which is why you have been under a lot of scrutiny! Also, it seemed weird to me that there were two roles that had people confirmed Town to the other in what appears to be an unreciprocated way; Bessie, as far as I remember, does not have any information pertaining to your being.

Bard, one thing I noticed going through Day 1 is that you had zero town reads. You called out Gopher, Dethstalker and the lurkers as people who had caught your attention, but never once seemed to consider anyone town, or engage with someone as if you thought they were town (other than LaserGuy). Why is that? Did you have any town reads?


Sure I did! I didn't explicitly say what they were because it's not in my interest to divulge that information publicly to scum. Read lists seem to be kind of popular here, but I think it's better to hold cards closer to your chest unless you are asked by multiple people, like I was when Plytho and Bessie asked me to post a reads list.

You also didn't really engage with anyone as if they were scum, other than Gopher. You asked a few questions, but they were mostly asking thoughts on others' reads rather than trying to feel out reads for yourself. What do you look at when you're trying to decide if someone is scum? How were you feeling at the end of Day 1 as far as how the game was going?


I look for intent, but also look for tangible evidence and compare it to my reads (votals, flips, etc.)

Day 2, you posts a reads list, which was helpful. Even more helpful is a quick description of why you feel that way about each player, but if that's too much to ask I'll settle for more detail on Gopher, BoomFrog, YOLOSWAG, SirGabriel and plytho. Gopher in particular is a must considering you're voting for him, yet every time you mention him all you can say is that you need to reread him again.


I'm trying to understand why more people aren't readily going for him, which is why I suggest that I need to reread (I'm not super confident on anything unless it's modconfirmed).

As an aside, if it turns out I have been misreading Gopher this entire game, I will have to really apologize to him post-game (or if he's confirmed town at some point, etc.)

DGames | Bard wrote:@Laserguy - My King! I'm not really a fan of Sir Yoloswag's play style; I can't say I get his suspicions of me this game because he hasn't really explained them to me. He kinda asserts himself in a way that isn't very transparent with his intentions, i.e. he says my posts are "disgusting," but he doesn't say what is "disgusting" about them. Another example that comes to mind is when he says I should be in the lynch pool, but doesn't really go in depth with the why. I'm not sure how he expects me to trust him in this type of situation. On that note, I wonder how he feels about me going for Gopher as a priority before putting him further on the chopping block.

You talk a lot here about what YOLO thinks of you, but nothing on what you think of him. I get that you were responding to a question, but you seem overly concerned with how you are perceived rather than the inverse. Why is that?


I did post what I thought of him though. I also indicated where he was on my reads list.

I'm a little unsure of myself because this is a new site, and I also don't want to come off as trying to lead in a place where I am entirely new (it just seems to lack etiquette to do this in my opinion).

I'm not sure what you mean by "overly concerned with how you are perceived rather than the inverse," though, or what the implications may be.

DGames | Bard wrote:What do you think is the right path from here? Do you think I am just brutally wrong about GoP and should be voting for someone else/Yolo? I see your vote is on SDK; whom would you vote for in this situation assuming it was ultimately between yolo or GoP, or would you still push for SDK/Bessie?

This is addressed to LaserGuy, so I assume you're talking to a townie here. Did you ask these questions to try to guide yourself to a conclusion with another townie's help? Are there any other townies you would feel comfortable working with?


Yeah, that's why I asked him. He's an interesting guy, my King. Instead of picking a side though, he seems to be playing diplomatically in this regard. :x. None the less, I must support him, even if it leads to a potentially bitter end. D:

I feel pretty comfortable with Plytho and Sir Gabriel. I did feel comfortable with Bessie albeit she did end up gunning for Laserguy, which in turn indirectly painted me as potential scum from her point of view, possibly. Doh.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby DGames | Bard » Mon May 29, 2017 7:10 am UTC

The aforementioned post was written prior to the flip, so it's a little confusing since I made some edits post-flip but sheepishly missed other parts after a long day of work. Doh!

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act II is going to need some adjustments

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon May 29, 2017 7:23 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Boomfrog, if only you'd explained yourself. You have three secret town club members? Gah. Plus, you were totally wrong about YOLO being supernatural, even if they were scum. I just can't get a good read.


Pretty sure BoomFrog was reading YOLO correctly as Guild.


Umm, yes, I think? He said the second scenario (Guild|YOLO) doesn't make sense, but then convinced himself back? I couldn't make sense of what he was really saying there, so I assumed he was still on 'YOLO is supernatural'. Was another reason I still found him scummy. Well, I was wrong.

SDK wrote:I don't think it's in town's best interest to have me confirm or deny being masons with bessie. If I am, that confirms me town and gets me killed. If I'm not, that confirms that they should look elsewhere. If you'd like to ask more politely with some reasoning attached, I'd be happy to consider it.

Also Gopher, you shouldn't be speculating on such things. It is not in town's best interest to determine bessie's buddy before it's time.

More later.


Please give reasons why. As Sabrar and Bard have said, having a claimed town at this point can be so helpful, and provide WINE to the scum teams. A lack of claim from anyone else will still paint you as bessie's mason partner anyway, so why do you think you'll avoid the NK?

Bard, what information do you have about Laserguy?

Madge, you briefly voted for SirGabriel. Why?

Bard, you constantly say I'm scummy. Your only reason for that is because I voted for self-preservation (why wouldn't I?), and not looking for scum with my vote. This was long after you already considered me scummy. It screams of post-hoc justification for voting me. Why did you initially vote for me?

If you are town, I will expect a public apology, signed in triplicate, presented in front of the King :P
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Madge » Mon May 29, 2017 7:26 am UTC

SirG was scummy on D1, then I realised that I had no reason to think SirG was scummy today, and I was actually composing an EBWOP saying "was jimbob killed in the night? Isn't that convenient if so? if it was jimbob who was killed then we should probably think about lynching YOLOSWAG" and then I realised I should actually just click over a couple of pages myself to check, and once I realised that we had someone claiming a roleblocker (the most scum-friendly claim to make), and roleblocking the person who was killed in the night (requiring no confirmation), I was like, that claim is the scummiest thing in the game, SirG having faulty logic was really not in the same ballpark, and I'm no doubt committing some sort of logical fallacy by "sticking" to SirG. So yeah, just kind of crystallised into place that YOLO's claim was stinky.

aside: probably roleblocked me N1, the nerve

other aside: realised i'm no longer roleplaying my character. i should get back onto it.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon May 29, 2017 7:40 am UTC

I was more interested in your reasons for SirG than for changing, but I see you had them as scummy D1. I've still to do my bigger look into SirG.

To Sabrar re: lynching bessie / SDK (even though it's all moot now)

Spoiler:
Yes, but you have still failed to demonstrate why lynching SDK is better than lynching bessie. Going by the original premise:

Lynch SDK - if SDK scum, no info on bessie. If SDK town, bessie town.
Lynch bessie - if bessie scum, SDK scum. If bessie town, no info on SDK.

Outcomes in order of preference (just from those results):
Lynch scum bessie (1 scum lynched, 1 scum outed)
Lynch scum SDK (1 scum outed)
Lynch town SDK (1 town lynched, 1 town outed)
Lynch town bessie (1 town lynched)

Greater risk/reward with lynching bessie, but I would say the difference between the bottom two results is less than the difference between the top two results. Hence why I thought lynching bessie would have been the greater benefit (obviously I would have been wrong.)
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act I opens

Postby Sabrar » Mon May 29, 2017 8:33 am UTC

I've once again revised my earlier stance on this matter.
@SDK: I do not think you are bessie's mason-buddy. You could still be Town but you need to explain the following ASAP:
SDK wrote:Speaking of role PM's, I'm just going to say this now: I have never received a more scummy town role PM. And I've been a Miller more than once (though I am not a Miller now).


After SDK's claim I would be interested in Bard's info.

After that I think bessie's buddy should come forward.

And we should stop there with the claims unless someone has a useful night-result to share.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Mon May 29, 2017 8:46 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Well, I'm surprised that Boomfrog is dead, and their role. Less so about bessie.

I must have thought something was up with bessie due to her having night chat. It was just mason chat. However, she did say explicitly that she didn't know if SDK was town, which contradicts her role pm. So, if SDK isn't her mason buddy, then who is? bessie has SirGabriel at the top of her townie list.

Bessie had confirmation that her mason buddy was town. I assume that townie has townie reasons not to reveal themselves. Trying to find out who that townie is looks scummy to me.

Gopher of Pern wrote:So, my suspicions are directly on Bard and Laserguy now. What information would Bard have that he would want to protect Laserguy? Probably not mason (although, we shouldn't discount the possibilty of 2 mason groups). They were both at the bottom of bessie's list as well.

I'll look through SirGabriel later today. They could be a third member of the guild.

So you think Bard and LaserGuy are supernatural scumbuddies?

Gopher of Pern wrote:
Madge wrote:Quick post before work: I targeted someone other than SDK but I got no useful result. So I'm still pretty useless right now. Let's hope things improve.

More later. That last post before day end was a doozy though. I was thinking if we could analyse the two "target" lists that got posted but realised that both lists are just as likely to have scum team #2 in it, and we're looking at one person from scum team #1 being in the list of team #1's targets. So it's going to be slightly beneficial to lynch from team #1s targets but I think reads and night actions are going to be so much more useful it's not really worth talking about.


That's assuming you can trust what scum says. Why would you talk about it if you think it's not worth talking about?


If you have only 1 scum team, whenever scum says something they’re saying it to town with the intention to mislead. In this case this is scum to scum communication. YOLO seems to be trying to keep his teammate alive. Putting that teammate on a target list for the other team seems like a huge risk. So, considering it’s better for town to lynch the (supposedly) last member of the guild today, this list might be something to keep in mind.

Looking at the flavour, BoomFrog was hanged by a gang of ruffians, while bessie died white as a sheet. So it looks like both scum teams followed YOLO’s lists.

There is also a benefit to town here. Investigative and protective powers seem to be scum team specific. That means a doctor could protect someone from a supernatural kill and the protected target still died by a guild kill. If the scum teams keep following the lists, it’s easier to find a target to protect/investigate depending on your specialty.

Regarding claims I basically agree with this:

Sabrar wrote:I've once again revised my earlier stance on this matter.
@SDK: I do not think you are bessie's mason-buddy. You could still be Town but you need to explain the following ASAP:
SDK wrote:Speaking of role PM's, I'm just going to say this now: I have never received a more scummy town role PM. And I've been a Miller more than once (though I am not a Miller now).


After SDK's claim I would be interested in Bard's info.

After that I think bessie's buddy should come forward.

And we should stop there with the claims unless someone has a useful night-result to share.
But bessie's buddy still has that 'only if your only power is mason' caveat.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon May 29, 2017 9:13 am UTC

plytho wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Well, I'm surprised that Boomfrog is dead, and their role. Less so about bessie.

I must have thought something was up with bessie due to her having night chat. It was just mason chat. However, she did say explicitly that she didn't know if SDK was town, which contradicts her role pm. So, if SDK isn't her mason buddy, then who is? bessie has SirGabriel at the top of her townie list.

Bessie had confirmation that her mason buddy was town. I assume that townie has townie reasons not to reveal themselves. Trying to find out who that townie is looks scummy to me.


Now I know you are trying to get me lynched. Why is it scummy? Scum already know who town is. They don't need someone to declare it. I'm not the only one who has mused such things.
plytho wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:So, my suspicions are directly on Bard and Laserguy now. What information would Bard have that he would want to protect Laserguy? Probably not mason (although, we shouldn't discount the possibilty of 2 mason groups). They were both at the bottom of bessie's list as well.

I'll look through SirGabriel later today. They could be a third member of the guild.

So you think Bard and LaserGuy are supernatural scumbuddies?


I think it's very possible. I've definitely lowered my opinion on Bard.

plytho wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:
Madge wrote:Quick post before work: I targeted someone other than SDK but I got no useful result. So I'm still pretty useless right now. Let's hope things improve.

More later. That last post before day end was a doozy though. I was thinking if we could analyse the two "target" lists that got posted but realised that both lists are just as likely to have scum team #2 in it, and we're looking at one person from scum team #1 being in the list of team #1's targets. So it's going to be slightly beneficial to lynch from team #1s targets but I think reads and night actions are going to be so much more useful it's not really worth talking about.


That's assuming you can trust what scum says. Why would you talk about it if you think it's not worth talking about?


If you have only 1 scum team, whenever scum says something they’re saying it to town with the intention to mislead. In this case this is scum to scum communication. YOLO seems to be trying to keep his teammate alive. Putting that teammate on a target list for the other team seems like a huge risk. So, considering it’s better for town to lynch the (supposedly) last member of the guild today, this list might be something to keep in mind.

Looking at the flavour, BoomFrog was hanged by a gang of ruffians, while bessie died white as a sheet. So it looks like both scum teams followed YOLO’s lists.

There is also a benefit to town here. Investigative and protective powers seem to be scum team specific. That means a doctor could protect someone from a supernatural kill and the protected target still died by a guild kill. If the scum teams keep following the lists, it’s easier to find a target to protect/investigate depending on your specialty.


Now that you've pointed it out, what are the chances of scum following the lists again? Good job hero.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Mon May 29, 2017 9:15 am UTC

@to whom it may concern: if you agree that bessie's buddy should reveal themselves then why do you think it is scummy to find out who that person is?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Mon May 29, 2017 9:51 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:
plytho wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Well, I'm surprised that Boomfrog is dead, and their role. Less so about bessie.

I must have thought something was up with bessie due to her having night chat. It was just mason chat. However, she did say explicitly that she didn't know if SDK was town, which contradicts her role pm. So, if SDK isn't her mason buddy, then who is? bessie has SirGabriel at the top of her townie list.

Bessie had confirmation that her mason buddy was town. I assume that townie has townie reasons not to reveal themselves. Trying to find out who that townie is looks scummy to me.


Now I know you are trying to get me lynched. Why is it scummy? Scum already know who town is. They don't need someone to declare it. I'm not the only one who has mused such things.

No, they don't. Scum knows who isn't on their team. They don't know who's town/other scum/indie and they have an advantage in finding out who is what. So yeah, I'm trying to get you lynched, because I think you're scummy.

SDK pointed this out as well:
SDK wrote:Also Gopher, you shouldn't be speculating on such things. It is not in town's best interest to determine bessie's buddy before it's time.
But again, SDK, sees a townie making a mistake and I think it might be indicative of you being scum.

I'm reading SDK as town and I've been trying to follow his read on you but your posts keep pinging me.

Gopher of Pern wrote:
plytho wrote:There is also a benefit to town here. Investigative and protective powers seem to be scum team specific. That means a doctor could protect someone from a supernatural kill and the protected target still died by a guild kill. If the scum teams keep following the lists, it’s easier to find a target to protect/investigate depending on your specialty.


Now that you've pointed it out, what are the chances of scum following the lists again? Good job hero.

Yeah, I'm aware that's a risk. But the reason YOLO made that list was to avoid scum hitting each other. I assume they still want to do that so there's still a pretty good chance they will follow the list. And if they don't they might hit each other, which is even better for town.
Sabrar wrote:@to whom it may concern: if you agree that bessie's buddy should reveal themselves then why do you think it is scummy to find out who that person is?
As I said before, they might have a townie reason not to reveal themselves. We can provide arguments for them to reveal themselves and they will take those arguments and their own knowledge into account to decide whether or not to reveal. If they have a good reason to stay hidden and we try to town hunt them we're basically doing scum's work for them.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon May 29, 2017 10:14 am UTC

plytho wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:
plytho wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Well, I'm surprised that Boomfrog is dead, and their role. Less so about bessie.

I must have thought something was up with bessie due to her having night chat. It was just mason chat. However, she did say explicitly that she didn't know if SDK was town, which contradicts her role pm. So, if SDK isn't her mason buddy, then who is? bessie has SirGabriel at the top of her townie list.

Bessie had confirmation that her mason buddy was town. I assume that townie has townie reasons not to reveal themselves. Trying to find out who that townie is looks scummy to me.


Now I know you are trying to get me lynched. Why is it scummy? Scum already know who town is. They don't need someone to declare it. I'm not the only one who has mused such things.

No, they don't. Scum knows who isn't on their team. They don't know who's town/other scum/indie and they have an advantage in finding out who is what. So yeah, I'm trying to get you lynched, because I think you're scummy.


Scum will need to hunt scum at some point. Especially the guild team. They've lost 2 members already. In fact, at this stage, it might be more advantageous for scum to hunt other scum, seeing as one team is struggling to survive, and the other might want to reduce the number of NK's to prevent them from losing members.

plytho wrote:SDK pointed this out as well:
SDK wrote:Also Gopher, you shouldn't be speculating on such things. It is not in town's best interest to determine bessie's buddy before it's time.
But again, SDK, sees a townie making a mistake and I think it might be indicative of you being scum.

I'm reading SDK as town and I've been trying to follow his read on you but your posts keep pinging me.


And SDK's statement has frankly pinged my scumdar so hard. I know he likes to be enigmatic, but his other posts, with bessie's reveal, don't really jive well together. Like Sabrar, I don't really believe he was mason with bessie.

plytho wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:
plytho wrote:There is also a benefit to town here. Investigative and protective powers seem to be scum team specific. That means a doctor could protect someone from a supernatural kill and the protected target still died by a guild kill. If the scum teams keep following the lists, it’s easier to find a target to protect/investigate depending on your specialty.


Now that you've pointed it out, what are the chances of scum following the lists again? Good job hero.


Yeah, I'm aware that's a risk. But the reason YOLO made that list was to avoid scum hitting each other. I assume they still want to do that so there's still a pretty good chance they will follow the list. And if they don't they might hit each other, which is even better for town.


Guild has to kill scum at some point. They are losing pretty badly. If they continue killing town, the other scum team is going to win.

plytho wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@to whom it may concern: if you agree that bessie's buddy should reveal themselves then why do you think it is scummy to find out who that person is?
As I said before, they might have a townie reason not to reveal themselves. We can provide arguments for them to reveal themselves and they will take those arguments and their own knowledge into account to decide whether or not to reveal. If they have a good reason to stay hidden and we try to town hunt them we're basically doing scum's work for them.


Yes, they may have a good reason not to reveal. That doesn't stop us from wanting to know. And that would have to be a pretty big reason (another power role in addition to mason? Unlikely, but possible.) And it's no crime to ask the question. After all, not everyone has chimed in yet, and some only briefly.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Mon May 29, 2017 12:25 pm UTC

Logic time. Assumption: maximum of 5 scum (reason explained here), either 3+2 or 4+1 (with obviously supernatural having lower numbers).
Assume Bard is scum. He defends LaserGuy at a time when a) the latter is not close to getting lynched - though several people found him scummy and the wagon could have turned against him - and b) there is a good lurker-lynch available in DethStalker.
If Bard is supernatural:
- 4+1: does not make sense as there is no reason for SK!Bard to draw attention to himself. Plus if LaserGuy is normal!scum then scum-team will know he's lying and he'll be revealed to them as SK.
- 3+2: again Bard's 'reveal' only makes sense if he's buddy with LaserGuy. In that case he should be aware that there are 2 scum teams (2 out of 15 is way too weak). His claim makes it look like Mason or similar confirmed townie connection so he'll be a target for the other scum-team. Very unlikely.
If Bard is normal scum:
- 3+2: does not make sense because Bard would be interested to turn attention away from his buddy DethStalker given a suitable candidate and not to shut down that avenue.
- 4+1: is interesting, one of his buddies is the main wagon (and seems uncooperative) so he jumps in to save his other buddy and gain townie-cred.

Conclusion: in my opinion Bard is only scum if normal-team is exactly {Bard, DethStalker, LaserGuy, YOLOSWAG}. Next task is to look at their interaction D1 and D2.
Thoughts?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act I opens

Postby SirGabriel » Mon May 29, 2017 12:51 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I've once again revised my earlier stance on this matter.
@SDK: I do not think you are bessie's mason-buddy. You could still be Town but you need to explain the following ASAP:
SDK wrote:Speaking of role PM's, I'm just going to say this now: I have never received a more scummy town role PM. And I've been a Miller more than once (though I am not a Miller now).


After SDK's claim I would be interested in Bard's info.

After that I think bessie's buddy should come forward.

And we should stop there with the claims unless someone has a useful night-result to share.

This claim order sounds good to me. I also would not object to Bard claiming first and then SDK.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act II is going to need some adjustments

Postby SDK » Mon May 29, 2017 2:02 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Aside: figured out why some links were broken. If you sort by author then position of posts will change overtime and software won't find it. If you sort by date then this won't occur.


That's a nuisance. Thanks for the head's up.

I've got a fix for that. If you're searching by author and click a post link so you can copy the URL, switching it to a normal URL is easy. (Ignore the [] brackets going forward - I added them to made the URL not a link.)

[http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=122748&sk=a&start=520#p4201358]

That's what the linked post should look like in author view. See the "sk=a"? That's what's telling it to sort by author. We can get rid of the "start=520" thing too, since that's going to be different when we sort by date.

Sort by date is the default though, so all we need to do is direct the forum to the post in question. Copy the "p4201358" (that's the post number we want), and overwrite the "sk=a&start=520" with it, then add an = sign to make it "p=4201358" instead. That's it!

[http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=122748&p=4201358#p4201358]

Takes about five seconds to fix the problem, and you never have to flop back and forth between sort modes.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act I opens

Postby SDK » Mon May 29, 2017 2:27 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:After SDK's claim I would be interested in Bard's info.

After that I think bessie's buddy should come forward.

And we should stop there with the claims unless someone has a useful night-result to share.

On reflection, I agree with this. With two scum teams still around, we can get plenty of great info from this course, in addition to what reactions we've already gotten today. We've been doing well so far - solidifying the town bloc is probably all we need to win this game.

I am a lyncher, kind of. It's stated in my role PM that I'm town, but I cannot win unless bessie dies by the end of the game. jimbob actually called this Day 1, and I'd forgotten that there were roles like that in the previous Shakespeare game. Checking on that only solidified my town read of bessie since in that game there were two such characters, both of whom were targeting fellow town (I'd previously just come to the conclusion that she must be town since that restriction wouldn't make sense otherwise - no point if she already has to be dead just for town to win - and this was partially confirmed in conversation with mpolo, at least that he'd put the game together in the right order to make this thought process work). This comes from the fact that I'm jealous (I wanted the role of Edmund).

I have two other abilities which I will not share the details of. One of them is a vote manipulation ability that I have not yet used. In my opinion, it is scummy as shit, hence my comment at the beginning of the game (in addition to needing town to die). The ability can be used to town's advantage, but I suspect I will never need to use it. We'll see.


@bessie, I apologize for getting you killed. I suspect you already read my pre-game apology in GoJoe, however. But now I'm fully town! I'll try to win the game for you.


@Bard: Please claim the nature of your relationship with LaserGuy.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Mon May 29, 2017 3:53 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Scum will need to hunt scum at some point. Especially the guild team. They've lost 2 members already. In fact, at this stage, it might be more advantageous for scum to hunt other scum, seeing as one team is struggling to survive, and the other might want to reduce the number of NK's to prevent them from losing members.

You're saying getting nearly confirmed townies are less of a target now because scum is more likely to be targeting each other tonight? That's a fair point.
Gopher of Pern wrote:
plytho wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@to whom it may concern: if you agree that bessie's buddy should reveal themselves then why do you think it is scummy to find out who that person is?
As I said before, they might have a townie reason not to reveal themselves. We can provide arguments for them to reveal themselves and they will take those arguments and their own knowledge into account to decide whether or not to reveal. If they have a good reason to stay hidden and we try to town hunt them we're basically doing scum's work for them.


Yes, they may have a good reason not to reveal. That doesn't stop us from wanting to know. And that would have to be a pretty big reason (another power role in addition to mason? Unlikely, but possible.) And it's no crime to ask the question. After all, not everyone has chimed in yet, and some only briefly.
No, I agree with asking the question and I want to know as well. I just think hunting for the mason buddy as you would a scumbuddy isn't beneficial to town based on the assumption they are town and have townie reasons to hide.

Sabrar wrote:Logic time. Assumption: maximum of 5 scum (reason explained here), either 3+2 or 4+1 (with obviously supernatural having lower numbers).
Assume Bard is scum. He defends LaserGuy at a time when a) the latter is not close to getting lynched - though several people found him scummy and the wagon could have turned against him - and b) there is a good lurker-lynch available in DethStalker.
If Bard is supernatural:
- 4+1: does not make sense as there is no reason for SK!Bard to draw attention to himself. Plus if LaserGuy is normal!scum then scum-team will know he's lying and he'll be revealed to them as SK.
- 3+2: again Bard's 'reveal' only makes sense if he's buddy with LaserGuy. In that case he should be aware that there are 2 scum teams (2 out of 15 is way too weak). His claim makes it look like Mason or similar confirmed townie connection so he'll be a target for the other scum-team. Very unlikely.
If Bard is normal scum:
- 3+2: does not make sense because Bard would be interested to turn attention away from his buddy DethStalker given a suitable candidate and not to shut down that avenue.
- 4+1: is interesting, one of his buddies is the main wagon (and seems uncooperative) so he jumps in to save his other buddy and gain townie-cred.

Conclusion: in my opinion Bard is only scum if normal-team is exactly {Bard, DethStalker, LaserGuy, YOLOSWAG}. Next task is to look at their interaction D1 and D2.
Thoughts?

I don't really see anything wrong (except a detail, we started with 16, not 15). I also think SK is pretty unlikely making Bard likely town.

preliminary town-to-scum:

Pretty strong town feelings:
Bard
Sabrar
LaserGuy
SDK

Not sure about:
dimochka
kalira
SirG

Feeling pretty scummy:
Gopher of Pern
Madge

This isn't based on recent in-depth analysis, more of a gut read based on earlier analysis and the latest developments. I'll try to get a full reads post up tomorrow.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act I opens

Postby LaserGuy » Mon May 29, 2017 4:25 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
Sabrar wrote:After SDK's claim I would be interested in Bard's info.

After that I think bessie's buddy should come forward.

And we should stop there with the claims unless someone has a useful night-result to share.


On reflection, I agree with this. With two scum teams still around, we can get plenty of great info from this course, in addition to what reactions we've already gotten today. We've been doing well so far - solidifying the town bloc is probably all we need to win this game.

I am a lyncher, kind of. It's stated in my role PM that I'm town, but I cannot win unless bessie dies by the end of the game. jimbob actually called this Day 1, and I'd forgotten that there were roles like that in the previous Shakespeare game. Checking on that only solidified my town read of bessie since in that game there were two such characters, both of whom were targeting fellow town (I'd previously just come to the conclusion that she must be town since that restriction wouldn't make sense otherwise - no point if she already has to be dead just for town to win - and this was partially confirmed in conversation with mpolo, at least that he'd put the game together in the right order to make this thought process work). This comes from the fact that I'm jealous (I wanted the role of Edmund).


Just checking to make sure I understand what you're claiming... you're saying that 1) you are town, 2) based on your role PM, you had reasonable grounds to believe that bessie was town, but also, that she needed to die for you to win and therefore 3) you revealed that she was town on D1 so that scum could NK her. Is that about right?

Assuming this is true, then I have to bow down to jimbob's ability to guess crazy specifics about the setup.

SDK wrote:@Bard: Please claim the nature of your relationship with LaserGuy.


I think this is probably a good idea.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Mon May 29, 2017 4:29 pm UTC

SDK wrote:I've got a fix for that. If you're searching by author and click a post link so you can copy the URL, switching it to a normal URL is easy. (Ignore the [] brackets going forward - I added them to made the URL not a link.)


Thanks, I'll give that a try.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Mon May 29, 2017 4:59 pm UTC

For those who are lazy, this is the how the lyncher was worded in the previous Shakespeare game:
Alignment: You are town, provided that X dies before you. You win when all threats to town, plus X, have been eliminated.

SDK's current claim is consistent with how he played it. He is definitely a good/bold enough player to go for such a gambit as scum, however him specifically denying being Miller seems to contradict this.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act I opens

Postby SDK » Mon May 29, 2017 5:22 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Just checking to make sure I understand what you're claiming... you're saying that 1) you are town, 2) based on your role PM, you had reasonable grounds to believe that bessie was town, but also, that she needed to die for you to win and therefore 3) you revealed that she was town on D1 so that scum could NK her. Is that about right?

Yes, that's exactly right. I was worried part way through Day 2 that she might never die and that maybe I should have tried to lynch her instead of trusting in scum to do my dirty work, but knowing now that she was a Mason anyway I'm glad I didn't try to flip my read on her.

LaserGuy wrote:Assuming this is true, then I have to bow down to jimbob's ability to guess crazy specifics about the setup.

Indeed!

Sabrar wrote:For those who are lazy, this is the how the lyncher was worded in the previous Shakespeare game:
Alignment: You are town, provided that X dies before you. You win when all threats to town, plus X, have been eliminated.

SDK's current claim is consistent with how he played it. He is definitely a good/bold enough player to go for such a gambit as scum, however him specifically denying being Miller seems to contradict this.

My win condition is worded slightly differently, but yes, that's essentially it (no real difference). Given the way I chose to play this I knew I'd be claiming at some point, so I did word my first post carefully knowing this day would come. The miller bit was thrown in for exactly that reason.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act I opens

Postby SDK » Mon May 29, 2017 5:55 pm UTC

DGames | Bard wrote:But, uh, what does this have to do with why I felt your claim rubbed me the wrong way after I understood what happened?

You didn't understand what had happened when you said that it rubbed you the wrong way. You said that in the same post as your discussion on her voting and wondering why that made her confirmed town.

DGames | Bard wrote:Here's the thing: you claimed Bessie was Town right out the gate based on your role pm. This isn't a Townie thing to do; if you are telling the truth, you are effectively jeopardizing Bessie and leaving her to the demons of the night to kill her off, as I said earlier. Of course it rubs me the wrong way, it rubs everyone the wrong way, which is why you have been under a lot of scrutiny! Also, it seemed weird to me that there were two roles that had people confirmed Town to the other in what appears to be an unreciprocated way; Bessie, as far as I remember, does not have any information pertaining to your being.

Same as above, I don't remember you ever actually mentioning my role PM thing being weird. You said it rubbed you the wrong way before you understood what was going on, then did say something about how a townie wouldn't reveal themselves, but this is the first time you've mentioned the fact that it was weird having two similar roles.

DGames | Bard wrote:I'm not sure what you mean by "overly concerned with how you are perceived rather than the inverse," though, or what the implications may be.

You weren't trying to read YOLOSWAG, you were worried about his read on you. That's not a townie perspective.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SDK » Mon May 29, 2017 6:01 pm UTC

Just remembered that I saved a post in GoJoe since I was too late to post it at Day's end. It had some commentary attached that I'm going to include here too, just in case you needed more reason to trust my lyncher claim.

SDK wrote:Ha, I wasn't actually expecting YOLO to post. I was pretty sure he was scum just buying time to make it unsure what alignment he was going into Night. This is much more amusing. :mrgreen:


I was three minutes too late to post this. Guess I will at Day's start if I'm still alive. With YOLO flipping scum, I'm not 100% sure where to go. Do I follow my plytho read? I suppose I'll wait and see what I get back from Bard. If Bard is scum, probably I'll be dying tonight though... Still need Bessie to die at some point too. Yuck. Maybe I should try to get her lynched, scumminess be damned! I could lie about the reply I got back from mpolo... Come clean about my lyncher status and make it clear that I made some false assumptions based on the randomness thing (that's the lie)? Might work. Whatever.



BoomFrog wrote:
SDK wrote:
plytho wrote:I'm thinking there's no way town would behave any way close to that as town would be more open to trust people and take their advice, while you are saying there is no way scum could behave like that because they need to blend in. I guess I see where you are coming from now.

You've never been mafia before. In many ways it's actually way easier to trust people as mafia - you know who your team is and you know who is town.

By the way, why did you say this?

Hmm, that was a while ago. I think it was partly because I thought plytho might react to it, and partly trying to help town plytho see the game from scum's perspective.

That whole "tie a buddy to a townie, then lynch the townie to relieve pressure from your buddy" play is something I've done a lot, actually. Not this time though. :D


plytho wrote:(You might have a town tell on Gopher from experience that I don’t have yet.)

True enough. With Gopher, I'm so sure he's town based on writing style and a healthy dose of meta. Gopher makes mistakes. He likes to ponder and muse prior to really fully thinking through where those musings lead. He's right that he's often considered scummy for it, and rightly so! We do need to hold people accountable for their mistakes. But when Gopher has a reasonable explanation after the fact, I'll tend to be more lenient with him. I mean, look at Gopher last game. We would have strung him up Day 2, but that was being pushed by scum because it's easy (though town helped well enough). I suspect the same thing may be happening here. For example, the fact that you have nothing really concrete to point at here is a big part of why I'm still concerned you're scum, regardless of YOLO's flip. Plenty of people have made mistakes this game, though perhaps not as obviously as Gopher. Wanting to string someone up based on two specific points when you have no overall scum read otherwise? Not a reliable way to catch scum if you're simultaneously letting others off without as much scrutiny. Still need to solidify that, and Bard might be more important. We'll see what happens.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Mon May 29, 2017 6:14 pm UTC

@SDK: if Bard is scum which team does he belong to? Who are his buddies?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act II is going to need some adjustments

Postby SDK » Mon May 29, 2017 6:42 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:As Sabrar and Bard have said, having a claimed town at this point can be so helpful, and provide WINE to the scum teams. A lack of claim from anyone else will still paint you as bessie's mason partner anyway, so why do you think you'll avoid the NK?

If I didn't claim and they assumed I was a mason, that's a good thing! I'd rather be killed if it keeps the mason alive. Me being alive in the endgame might not be for the best (not sure if you've noticed, but not everybody trusts me 100%).

Gopher of Pern wrote:Now I know you are trying to get me lynched.

Do you think plytho is scum?





Sabrar wrote:@SDK: if Bard is scum which team does he belong to? Who are his buddies?

LaserGuy, almost certainly (and necessarily if Bard is Guild). I think it's most likely they are supernatural, if anything, but see below.

Sabrar wrote:Assume Bard is scum. He defends LaserGuy at a time when a) the latter is not close to getting lynched - though several people found him scummy and the wagon could have turned against him - and b) there is a good lurker-lynch available in DethStalker.

I disagree with this assumption. LaserGuy would have been lynched if it weren't for Bard.

Sabrar wrote:- 3+2: again Bard's 'reveal' only makes sense if he's buddy with LaserGuy. In that case he should be aware that there are 2 scum teams (2 out of 15 is way too weak). His claim makes it look like Mason or similar confirmed townie connection so he'll be a target for the other scum-team. Very unlikely.

I personally think we're in a 3+2 or a 3+1 situation, but if there are two supernatural, I think this is the most likely scenario (with Bard and LaserGuy being the 2). You're looking at this from Sabrar's perspective of low-risk, high-logic plays. That is not everyone, and with Bard already treating LaserGuy as a friend up to that point, he may have felt he had no choice.

Sabrar wrote:- 4+1: is interesting, one of his buddies is the main wagon (and seems uncooperative) so he jumps in to save his other buddy and gain townie-cred.

This is also possible. As you said, we need to look for interactions, but I'm not going to do any hard work on this one until after Bard claims.

Also, if Bard and LaserGuy are not scum, I think it's most likely that we are in a 3+1 game and the last guild and the supernatural SK are hiding out among others. Perhaps plytho and Madge respectively, but need to sort out Bard first, I think.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby DGames | Bard » Mon May 29, 2017 7:05 pm UTC

Everything makes a lot more sense now, but I strongly believe SDK is independent. If it's true that lyncher generally ends the game on this site, then he needs to get bodied. Not trying to spread FUD but it just seems way too scummy. He had all the incentive and morivation to pretend that he had confirmation of Bessie's alignment in order to get her killed.

As for my claim:

I am a 1-shot bodyguard as well as an unreciprocated lover of Laserguy.

Laserguy is confirmed Town in my PM. There is a drawback to this though. If he is lynched, I will also die with him. I am a lover so to speak but the love is unreciprocated; if I am lynched, he will not die.

If Laserguy is killed during the night, I will not die, but I will lose my ability as a 1-shot bodyguard because I am "distraught" over Laserguy's death and will not be able to vote during the following day phase (seems like there is A LOT of vote manipulating stuff in this game).

Not going to confirm whether or not I have used my ability yet or what that entails to for obvious reasons (wine for night time).

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SDK » Mon May 29, 2017 7:29 pm UTC

DGames | Bard wrote:If it's true that lyncher generally ends the game on this site, then he needs to get bodied. Not trying to spread FUD but it just seems way too scummy. He had all the incentive and morivation to pretend that he had confirmation of Bessie's alignment in order to get her killed.

Not sure what all this means. Bessie is dead and the game is not over. I am town. Even if you don't believe I always have been, I certainly am now otherwise I should have left the game after achieving my win.

Your claim feels reasonable.


To the mason, would you like to come forward? I do agree that it would be for the best at this point. We've got the game very close to solved.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Mon May 29, 2017 7:41 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
plytho wrote:(You might have a town tell on Gopher from experience that I don’t have yet.)

True enough. With Gopher, I'm so sure he's town based on writing style and a healthy dose of meta. Gopher makes mistakes. He likes to ponder and muse prior to really fully thinking through where those musings lead. He's right that he's often considered scummy for it, and rightly so! We do need to hold people accountable for their mistakes. But when Gopher has a reasonable explanation after the fact, I'll tend to be more lenient with him. I mean, look at Gopher last game. We would have strung him up Day 2, but that was being pushed by scum because it's easy (though town helped well enough). I suspect the same thing may be happening here. For example, the fact that you have nothing really concrete to point at here is a big part of why I'm still concerned you're scum, regardless of YOLO's flip. Plenty of people have made mistakes this game, though perhaps not as obviously as Gopher. Wanting to string someone up based on two specific points when you have no overall scum read otherwise? Not a reliable way to catch scum if you're simultaneously letting others off without as much scrutiny. Still need to solidify that, and Bard might be more important. We'll see what happens.

You're right that other people make mistakes too. But I feel their explanations are better than Gopher's. It's specifically his sloppy explanations that make him look scummy to me. I agree that I may be tunneling on a sloppy townie. That's why I moved Gopher from my scummiest spot. My goal for tomorrows reads list is to be more scrutinous for others,particularly Madge, SirG, kalira and dimochka.
DGames | Bard wrote:Everything makes a lot more sense now, but I strongly believe SDK is independent. If it's true that lyncher generally ends the game on this site, then he needs to get bodied. Not trying to spread FUD but it just seems way too scummy. He had all the incentive and morivation to pretend that he had confirmation of Bessie's alignment in order to get her killed.
Well, obviously it didn't end the game. Also Sabrar pointed out the similar role in the previous shakespeare game:
Sabrar wrote:For those who are lazy, this is the how the lyncher was worded in the previous Shakespeare game:
Alignment: You are town, provided that X dies before you. You win when all threats to town, plus X, have been eliminated.

SDK's current claim is consistent with how he played it. He is definitely a good/bold enough player to go for such a gambit as scum, however him specifically denying being Miller seems to contradict this.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SirGabriel » Mon May 29, 2017 7:43 pm UTC

I am the other mason.

bessie and I both found it odd that a non-mason townie would start out the game with confirmation of the towniness of one of the masons. However, now that SDK has claims his role, his earlier claims make sense, and his play so far is consistent with his claim, so I'm inclined to believe him.

I'm not convinced by Bard's claim, and I think LaserGuy should full claim now. I suspect the two of them are the supernatural scum team.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby DGames | Bard » Mon May 29, 2017 8:04 pm UTC

Welp.

I gotta jet, but all I can say is this:

I'm not supernatural!!!!! If you're going to lynch between myself or laserguy though, lynch me. It would be really silly to get two townies killed at the same time instead of one. I am NOT bluffing about my role!!

Best of luck my dudes (and dudettes), I'll be back later to check if the noose is around my neck after you guys deliberate. D:

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SDK » Mon May 29, 2017 8:15 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:I am the other mason.

That's good. You've been a question mark for me all game, so confirmation there is great.

Living Players (10)
Znirk/Sabrar
freezeblade/kalira
SDK
SirGabriel
Gopher of Pern
Madge
plytho
dimochka
LaserGuy
Bard

Lynch Pool
Madge
plytho
Bard (probably safer than LaserGuy if Bard is telling the truth?)
dimochka?
kalira?

You guys can argue that Gopher should be on that list, but this is mostly to gather my own thoughts. Should try to reread all five of those players tomorrow. I personally believe Bard's claim on the face of it. Need to take a look at other players, see if I can justify that.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act II is going to need some adjustments

Postby plytho » Mon May 29, 2017 10:16 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Assume Bard is scum. He defends LaserGuy at a time when a) the latter is not close to getting lynched - though several people found him scummy and the wagon could have turned against him - and b) there is a good lurker-lynch available in DethStalker.

I disagree with this assumption. LaserGuy would have been lynched if it weren't for Bard.

That's true when he claimed. But Bard had been breadcrumbing that from his first post. Which doesn't make sense for scum.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Mon May 29, 2017 11:04 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:I am the other mason.

bessie and I both found it odd that a non-mason townie would start out the game with confirmation of the towniness of one of the masons. However, now that SDK has claims his role, his earlier claims make sense, and his play so far is consistent with his claim, so I'm inclined to believe him.

I'm not convinced by Bard's claim, and I think LaserGuy should full claim now. I suspect the two of them are the supernatural scum team.


I don't think full claiming will reveal any information that will help you determine if I'm town or scum. My role is one that does not obviously go one way or the other. I will if I need to, but I don't think it will be beneficial to do it at this point.

@SDK, do you also want a fullclaim from me?

DGames | Bard wrote:Everything makes a lot more sense now, but I strongly believe SDK is independent. If it's true that lyncher generally ends the game on this site, then he needs to get bodied. Not trying to spread FUD but it just seems way too scummy. He had all the incentive and morivation to pretend that he had confirmation of Bessie's alignment in order to get her killed.

As for my claim:

I am a 1-shot bodyguard as well as an unreciprocated lover of Laserguy.

Laserguy is confirmed Town in my PM. There is a drawback to this though. If he is lynched, I will also die with him. I am a lover so to speak but the love is unreciprocated; if I am lynched, he will not die.

If Laserguy is killed during the night, I will not die, but I will lose my ability as a 1-shot bodyguard because I am "distraught" over Laserguy's death and will not be able to vote during the following day phase (seems like there is A LOT of vote manipulating stuff in this game).

Not going to confirm whether or not I have used my ability yet or what that entails to for obvious reasons (wine for night time).


I had figured it was probably something of this nature. Thanks.

BoomFrog wrote:-secret club members-
dimochka
Madge
freezeblade


Any of you have any idea why BoomFrog might have said this?

Sabrar wrote:95% Town: dimochka, freezeblade/kalira, LaserGuy, Madge


Sabrar, in this post you have the same three people as extremely likely town. I think it was you who was saying that this was a meta read that you didn't want to reveal unless you have to (though I can't find the post so maybe this was someone else?), so let's go with... are you still confident in your reads on dimochka, freezeblade/kalira, and Madge?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act II is going to need some adjustments

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue May 30, 2017 12:17 am UTC

Quite a few things to cover.

plytho wrote:
SDK wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Assume Bard is scum. He defends LaserGuy at a time when a) the latter is not close to getting lynched - though several people found him scummy and the wagon could have turned against him - and b) there is a good lurker-lynch available in DethStalker.

I disagree with this assumption. LaserGuy would have been lynched if it weren't for Bard.

That's true when he claimed. But Bard had been breadcrumbing that from his first post. Which doesn't make sense for scum.


A good scum breadcrumbs from the start. Not having played with Bard before, I don't know if he'd be inclined to do this, but we can't rule it out.

Regarding SDK; at worst, I think he's independant. His claim pretty much jives with everything I thought of him, aside from the town thing. I see no reason to distrust him.
DGames | Bard wrote:Everything makes a lot more sense now, but I strongly believe SDK is independent. If it's true that lyncher generally ends the game on this site, then he needs to get bodied. Not trying to spread FUD but it just seems way too scummy. He had all the incentive and morivation to pretend that he had confirmation of Bessie's alignment in order to get her killed.

As for my claim:

I am a 1-shot bodyguard as well as an unreciprocated lover of Laserguy.

Laserguy is confirmed Town in my PM. There is a drawback to this though. If he is lynched, I will also die with him. I am a lover so to speak but the love is unreciprocated; if I am lynched, he will not die.

If Laserguy is killed during the night, I will not die, but I will lose my ability as a 1-shot bodyguard because I am "distraught" over Laserguy's death and will not be able to vote during the following day phase (seems like there is A LOT of vote manipulating stuff in this game).

Not going to confirm whether or not I have used my ability yet or what that entails to for obvious reasons (wine for night time).


This pings me. You could very well be bodyguard/lover. But having Laserguy as confirmed town in your role pm? That's 3 confirmed townies at the start of the game (obviously not to everyone, but still).

Going through implications, given that Bard is unreciprocated lover of Laserguy:

Bard town, Laserguy town. Quite probable. Would explain Bard's defence of Laserguy, but not why I'm so pinged by Bard, due to his tunnelling, and his lack of actual reads on anyone.

Bard town, Laserguy scum. Very doubtful. Bard wouldn't have confirmation on Laserguys status and wouldn't lie about it.

Bard scum, Laserguy town. Possible. Bard gets townie points for protecting a townie, and can still win against town with Laserguy alive. Presumably, he doesn't need Laserguy alive to win, as he survives a NK'd Laserguy.

Bard scum, Laserguy scum. Unlikely. But is a big blow to scum if Laserguy is lynched, if Bard is telling the truth.

Bard, can you still win if Laserguy is dead?

If we have the lovers assumption, most likely is Bard and Laserguy town. But I can see a scum Bard pulling this off. It is very doubtful that Laserguy is scum if Bard is town though.

SDK wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:As Sabrar and Bard have said, having a claimed town at this point can be so helpful, and provide WINE to the scum teams. A lack of claim from anyone else will still paint you as bessie's mason partner anyway, so why do you think you'll avoid the NK?

If I didn't claim and they assumed I was a mason, that's a good thing! I'd rather be killed if it keeps the mason alive. Me being alive in the endgame might not be for the best (not sure if you've noticed, but not everybody trusts me 100%).

Gopher of Pern wrote:Now I know you are trying to get me lynched.

Do you think plytho is scum?


I'm of two minds about plytho. On one hand, they've mostly been a good townie, and presented reads, especially early on. I can even understand why they think my defence of my positions is scummy (Honestly, I look back and wonder why I was thinking some of that stuff.) But they seem to be deliberately finding me scummy in light of recent developments, even though there is nothing there. They are reaching for more reasons to find me scummy. It's pinging me.

As for you being alive, or not, I think it's a win-win for town now. We have a confirmed town mason, and you, who seems to be trusted more than you seem to suspect. Having confirmed townies narrows the scum hunt, and presents scum with bad options. Do they kill the relatively powerless confirmed townies, or kill other town, who may have powers still?

Sabrar wrote:Logic time. Assumption: maximum of 5 scum (reason explained here), either 3+2 or 4+1 (with obviously supernatural having lower numbers).
Assume Bard is scum. He defends LaserGuy at a time when a) the latter is not close to getting lynched - though several people found him scummy and the wagon could have turned against him - and b) there is a good lurker-lynch available in DethStalker.
If Bard is supernatural:
- 4+1: does not make sense as there is no reason for SK!Bard to draw attention to himself. Plus if LaserGuy is normal!scum then scum-team will know he's lying and he'll be revealed to them as SK.
- 3+2: again Bard's 'reveal' only makes sense if he's buddy with LaserGuy. In that case he should be aware that there are 2 scum teams (2 out of 15 is way too weak). His claim makes it look like Mason or similar confirmed townie connection so he'll be a target for the other scum-team. Very unlikely.
If Bard is normal scum:
- 3+2: does not make sense because Bard would be interested to turn attention away from his buddy DethStalker given a suitable candidate and not to shut down that avenue.
- 4+1: is interesting, one of his buddies is the main wagon (and seems uncooperative) so he jumps in to save his other buddy and gain townie-cred.

Conclusion: in my opinion Bard is only scum if normal-team is exactly {Bard, DethStalker, LaserGuy, YOLOSWAG}. Next task is to look at their interaction D1 and D2.
Thoughts?


Made sense at the time, but a few caveats:
If Bard is supernatural SK, with a lover condition, he needs to keep laserguy alive during the lynch, as he would die otherwise. Maybe he wants everyone dead but Laserguy, and that's his win con?

If Bard is guild|scum in a 4 man team, we can't rely on anything they say.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue May 30, 2017 4:49 am UTC

Nothing from Dimochka so far today.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Tue May 30, 2017 6:54 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Sabrar, in this post you have the same three people as extremely likely town. I think it was you who was saying that this was a meta read that you didn't want to reveal unless you have to (though I can't find the post so maybe this was someone else?), so let's go with... are you still confident in your reads on dimochka, freezeblade/kalira, and Madge?

I made the comment about the meta-read here. I re-read the posts and the surrounding context and I'm still quite confident in my reads. However my scumpool is rapidly diminishing and that troubles me quite a bit. If I had to pick an order among them then it would be freezeblade/kalira, Madge, dimochka from most to least sure, with the caveat that in case Madge is scum then she must be supernatural SK.

I'm in two minds about Bard's claim due to my lack of experience with his meta. My pro and con lists for accepting his claim are roughly equally long and it is heavily tied to LaserGuy's performance this game.

Gun to my head my most likely scum-configuration is {Bard, LaserGuy} as supernatural team and {plytho} as the remaining Guild-member, however I am worried about the redacted name in YOLOSWAG's role-pm.

Also I decided that SDK's claim is most likely be true based (again) on meta-reasons.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue May 30, 2017 6:59 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gun to my head my most likely scum-configuration is {Bard, LaserGuy} as supernatural team and {plytho} as the remaining Guild-member, however I am worried about the redacted name in YOLOSWAG's role-pm.

Also I decided that SDK's claim is most likely be true based (again) on meta-reasons.


What do you mean re: redacted? I thought it was just the names of his scum group?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Tue May 30, 2017 7:05 am UTC

I thought that the same part was missing from DethStalker's flip so I assumed the names of their team-mates were in another section of the pm. Checking back I see that it is there in the flavor section as well which I apparently didn't pay close attention to at that time. Thanks for clearing that up.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Tue May 30, 2017 8:19 am UTC

However we shouldn't exclude the possibility of supernatural SK just because some abilities would be incredibly weak/weird (as mentioned e.g. by kalira here). My original ability was also almost completely useless. In that case I would move {Bard, LaserGuy} to the normal!scum pile and am uncertain about the identity of the SK.

All in all I think I would currently prefer to lynch Bard today even though it would definitely mean 2 kills tonight as well. Worst case scenario we have a lot of confirmed townies D4.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act II is going to need some adjustments

Postby plytho » Tue May 30, 2017 8:24 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:
plytho wrote:
SDK wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Assume Bard is scum. He defends LaserGuy at a time when a) the latter is not close to getting lynched - though several people found him scummy and the wagon could have turned against him - and b) there is a good lurker-lynch available in DethStalker.

I disagree with this assumption. LaserGuy would have been lynched if it weren't for Bard.

That's true when he claimed. But Bard had been breadcrumbing that from his first post. Which doesn't make sense for scum.


A good scum breadcrumbs from the start. Not having played with Bard before, I don't know if he'd be inclined to do this, but we can't rule it out.

True, but there's a difference between breadcrumbing a power to support a false claim later on and breadcrumbing a buddy to save them from the lynch later on. The former is standard 'good scum play' while the latter seems kind of out there. I can see an experienced scum player trying a play like this on a new forum though. In this postBard points out he's playing more safe than usual. His intent may be to make it seem like he is while he has that gambit going on?

Sabrar wrote:I'm in two minds about Bard's claim due to my lack of experience with his meta. My pro and con lists for accepting his claim are roughly equally long and it is heavily tied to LaserGuy's performance this game.

Gun to my head my most likely scum-configuration is {Bard, LaserGuy} as supernatural team and {plytho} as the remaining Guild-member, however I am worried about the redacted name in YOLOSWAG's role-pm.

What has changed since:
Sabrar wrote:If Bard is supernatural:
- 3+2: again Bard's 'reveal' only makes sense if he's buddy with LaserGuy. In that case he should be aware that there are 2 scum teams (2 out of 15 is way too weak). His claim makes it look like Mason or similar confirmed townie connection so he'll be a target for the other scum-team. Very unlikely.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm of two minds about plytho. On one hand, they've mostly been a good townie, and presented reads, especially early on. I can even understand why they think my defence of my positions is scummy (Honestly, I look back and wonder why I was thinking some of that stuff.) But they seem to be deliberately finding me scummy in light of recent developments, even though there is nothing there. They are reaching for more reasons to find me scummy. It's pinging me.
I'm glad you can understand what I found scummy about your defense. I was so sure there were inconsistencies and nobody else seemed to understand what I meant. You have a point about today (I assume that's what you mean by recent developments). I do still find townhunting somewhat scummy but I can see a point in it. I'm less and less convinced you're scum. In this post I wasn't trying to paint you as scummy. I was just responding to a few points you made. You responded pretty snarkily here so I snapped back. But there's a reason I want to get a better read on others today as I mention here.

Now on to those reads :)
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