Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

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LaserGuy
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Tue May 30, 2017 9:55 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Phone post before bed so I'll be brief.
You ask me why I think RB is on same team as Strongman. Then you ask me why in my answer I discard the possibility of supernatural YOLOSWAG when DethStalker was normal scum. Does this make sense to you???


DethStalker wasn't a strongman. He had roleblock immunity. If there is only one roleblocker (which, I grant, is not necessarily the case), then this creates a problem. There are four possibilities to explains this:
1. YOLO is lying.
2. Roles are duplicated.
3. YOLO isn't on the same team as DethStalker.
4. Random setup allows vestigial roles like this.

What I find interesting is that you never considered (3) as a possibility, despite the fact that you said you didn't have any particular evidence pointing YOLO toward being buddies with DethStalker. Why didn't "oh, well, maybe they aren't on the same team then" cross your mind?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Tue May 30, 2017 10:38 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:I must have thought something was up with bessie due to her having night chat.


Where did you state this previously?


@Gopher, can you answer this?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed May 31, 2017 12:21 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:I must have thought something was up with bessie due to her having night chat.


Where did you state this previously?


@Gopher, can you answer this?


I didn't state this. I thought something was up with bessie. It must have been because she had night chat. She changed a bit from D1 to D2, and I picked up on it.

DGames | Bard wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
DGames | Bard wrote:I've been thinking about it, but just how likely is it that a Supernatural SK has a lover win condition? It's hard enough as it is for SKs to win (in my personal experience with them, anyway), do SKs come generally handicapped on xkcd? Trying to dispell the FUD regarding my potential as a supernatural gentleman since, well, I'm not supernatural!!
We have only your word that you're a lover. Why should we believe that?



Ok, this is kinda self-meta-ish, but if I were scum, I would not voluntarily put myself in the line of fire and connect myself to someone for the rest of the game if it could compromise my win condition (which it most certainly would in this case). That being said, I will still entertain the hypothetical of "what if this was all a gamble and Bard is just full of poop."

~ahem~

Think about it: a fake lover claim would be such a crazy gamble that, frankly, it's just too bizarre and unsafe to do in a game where scum factions can cross kill. I mean, I would have to jump completely blind and in the dark to claim an unreciprocated lover that has town confirmed information. And to choose Laserguy, whom has been depicted by many as scummy in this game, which has effectively dragged down my own slot in terms of potential scumminess? I would never put myself in that kind of position if I had a choice in the matter (again, with the self-meta, I know).

Anyway, lets entertain the hypothetical scenarios and ascertain risk.

Guild Fake-claim possibilities
1. If I am guild and Laserguy is my scum mate, I heavily jeopardize our faction by making such a bold claim ("laserguy is town and should not be a play") right from the start. We are forever connected at that point. If he is killed during the night by a supernatural, I will be automatically lynched the following day. I also would have willingly ensured Dethstalker's death as his mate, since Laserguy was the only other potential wagon at the time.

2. If Laserguy is the Supernatural Chatterbox King of the Underworld and I am guild, then it would be the best case scenario for me since Guild wouldn't kill him in order to not jeopardize my claim, and no one else would kill Laserguy since he is the other faction barring Vigilantes (in other words, it would have to be completely blind luck for me to choose him as the Underworld dude).

3. If I am guild and Laserguy is town, this is not a bad situation for me to be in, but if that was my aim from the start, I would not have chosen someone that was being wagoned on and being depicted as scummy while Dethstalker's lynch was a possibility. Regardless, lets say I had reasons to think Laserguy was Town despite people wagoning him; I'm still taking a big risk and hoping he is not the Supernatural warlord of doom.

Town Fake-claim possibilities:
1. If I am Town and I die, then I could see myself getting forever banned for game-throwing if my gamble was wrong regarding Laserguy (I mean, seriously, that's just not a cool thing to do).

Supernatural Fake-claim possibilities:
1. If I am super natural, and I choose a guild member, this is a good situation because there will not be any crossfire. However, if that guild member is caught by unclaimed role in potentially existence (Cop, Watcher, Vigilante), I am screwed.

2. If I am super natural and I choose Town,that's a good situation to be in, but it's still a big risk; at this point, Guild can kill Laserguy, and if I have the ability to vote on the following day phase, I'm all sorts of doomed.

I'm sure there's probably a handful of things I didn't account for, but the long and short of it is that this is all one completely unnecessary big risk if the claim is fake. I would have sooner chosen someone more townie when it was still theoretically possible to play off my "bread-crumbing as role play."

Sabrar wrote:
DGames | Bard wrote:It just doesn't feel right to say "he shouldn't ever be a play" since I have pretty much no idea what the set up looks like or what could possibly happen going into the future.
If you're truly his lover then from your pov he should never ever be the play regardless of circumstances. Does not compute.


As far as the "he should never ever be a play" comment is concerned, what if there was a cult (actually not sure if this is possible; didn't quite read the role-specific rules at the start of the game), or some kind of crazy mechanic that made him some anti-town deterrent? Possible alignment changes? I dunno! Gosh, this is my first time here, I don't know all the roles you guys have. If he did become scum/anti-town somehow, I think it would be the townie thing to do to resign myself to an inevitable death barring context if it ultimately means winning the game. That's the same reasoning I used to resign myself to a lynch earlier before Laserguy; it just doesn't make sense to kill off two Townies at the same time.

Anyway, I'll be back tomorrow and let others say their piece.


In D1, there was really no clear reason to be sure of a second scum faction. Right now, we still don't know for sure there is one. Could still just be SK. I'm not convinced that Laserguy would have been lynched D1, as dethstalker was being very obstinate, I don't think your interjection made the difference.

Fact is, we don't know you. You have done barely any scum hunting this game (You still haven't provided any reasons for thinking me scummy.) It is a big risk, but sometimes big risks pay off. Especially as SDK already did something similar this game, you might have thought you could pull it off.

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:To Sabrar re: lynching bessie / SDK (even though it's all moot now)

Yes, but you have still failed to demonstrate why lynching SDK is better than lynching bessie.
Spoiler:
Going by the original premise:

Lynch SDK - if SDK scum, no info on bessie. If SDK town, bessie town.
Lynch bessie - if bessie scum, SDK scum. If bessie town, no info on SDK.

Outcomes in order of preference (just from those results):
Lynch scum bessie (1 scum lynched, 1 scum outed)
Lynch scum SDK (1 scum outed)
Lynch town SDK (1 town lynched, 1 town outed)
Lynch town bessie (1 town lynched)

Greater risk/reward with lynching bessie, but I would say the difference between the bottom two results is less than the difference between the top two results. Hence why I thought lynching bessie would have been the greater benefit (obviously I would have been wrong.)

It's completely moot but I hate not having the last word. :D
I just like to play it safe, planning for worst case scenario, minimizing impact of mistake. If our course of action is correct then amount of advantage is less significant. If we're wrong then we need all the help we can get. Mislynching bessie gives us nothing, mislynching SDK provides info.


That's fair. I just objected to the feeling that we must lynch SDK first. There is merit in both sides.

Like now, I'm in favour of lynching Bard over Laserguy, despite being in a similar situation. I believe having confirmed townies now is a much bigger boon, as well as I think if Bard was scum, he likely has some information in his role pm that could help us identify Laserguy.

So, on the not to lynch list (for today):
SirGabriel (Unless someone counterclaims, is confirmed Mason)
SDK (Believe them about their role re: bessie)
Laserguy (If scum, might as well lynch Bard first)

So, that leaves 6 people (In rough order of town to scum).

Sabrar, I don't feel like lynching. We seem to butt heads a lot more if they are scum. I feel they are also more aggressive as scum.
plytho, despite being tunneled on, I feel came from a townie place.
Kalira, I'm not sure. Gave them slack yesterday due to catching up, but I don't remember much of importance from them. Will have to reread.
Dimochka, needs to post more. I haven't got a read on them, and I feel they have been active lurky this whole game.
Madge, I had some concerns yesterday. They are still around for now.
Bard, well, not looking great at the moment.

Having had three people try to lynch me, and knowing that I am town, indicates to me that one of those three have a very high chance of being scum, because otherwise, scum could have easily gotten me lynched (YOLO probably would have pushed harder.) At the moment, Bard is looking much scummier than plytho.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SirGabriel » Wed May 31, 2017 2:12 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:I must have thought something was up with bessie due to her having night chat.


Where did you state this previously?


@Gopher, can you answer this?


I didn't state this. I thought something was up with bessie. It must have been because she had night chat. She changed a bit from D1 to D2, and I picked up on it.

It wasn't because of her night chat. D2 she was intentionally acting scummy, hoping that would result in more suspicion on SDK and force him to full claim.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 31, 2017 2:21 am UTC

SirGabriel wrote:It wasn't because of her night chat. D2 she was intentionally acting scummy, hoping that would result in more suspicion on SDK and force him to full claim.


Even when she intentionally tries to act scummy, people still read her as town. I am amused :D

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed May 31, 2017 2:28 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:It wasn't because of her night chat. D2 she was intentionally acting scummy, hoping that would result in more suspicion on SDK and force him to full claim.


Even when she intentionally tries to act scummy, people still read her as town. I am amused :D


To be fair, she did have SDK on her side.

That's my point SirGabriel. She intentionally acted scummy, because she was a mason, so she doubted SDK's read of her. You probably helped convince her to try that tack. To be more specific, her role reveal indicated to me why I felt something was wrong with bessie.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Madge » Wed May 31, 2017 6:31 am UTC

Well this thread has gone away from me... writing up as I read, and kind of spacy due to lack of sleep.

[regarding vote switch]

SDK wrote:If we assume Madge can write at 60 WPM


How dare you. I'm more like 100-120 WPM, and that series of realisations happened very quickly (I'd say within 30-60 seconds). YOLOSWAG was pretty much always going to be lynched, so I don't see how I'm helping "my buddy" by not voting for some complete random instead.

(oh, and now SDK has retracted that accusation, but he did not retract the slight upon my typing speed, AND I DEMAND VENGENCE)

arrrgh i'm busy and tired and have things to do today so I'm not going to be able to do more than try and defend myself, which sucks.

I very much like SDK's claim but everyone likes his claim so I guess I'm scum copying other peoples' opinions too :roll:

Happy to claim today though I'd prefer to stay alive on the off-chance I can get a night result tonight, and by being mysterious I can let scum decide whether they want to try and prevent me from acting or whether my power is one of the less useful ones. I'm not keeping any useful information from you, like I said.


aaand i'm feelign an odd sort of tired (very little sleep catching up to me) and depressed (new boss seems not to realise i have been in this role 3 years and might know how to fill out basic forms?)
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Madge » Wed May 31, 2017 6:40 am UTC

ebwop

forgot to finish my post: basically tired/depressed madge = this post kind of sucks i'm sorry.

also it's getting kind of surreal and idgaf anymore so ENJOY !!!!!!!!!!!!!

here's a gut town-to-scum list:

"PRETTY SURE THEY're TOWN" ZONE:
SirG (in the case SirG is scum doing a gambit, to the hypothetical other mason: you have already screwed up by not counterclaiming already, GG)

SDK - claim is super solid, could be scum gambit though

"I DON'T KNOW KIND OF TOWNIE I GUESS" ZONE
Sabrar - not piling on me and defending me really well so FMPOV pretty dang townie since if they were scum it'd be a great way to get townie lynched, but probably nobody else should trust this read, UNTIL MY UNTIMELY DEATH (note: not planning on dying soon, scum feel free to kill me i guess?? or not, could I be a bulletproof PGO only one way to find out???)

"PROBABLY TOWNIE MAYBE SCUM???" ZONE
Plytho / Laserguy: whichever one was bard's alleged lover (sorry my memory sucks and this is quick)

GoP - I have no idea

Plytho/laserguy: whichever one wasn't bard's lover (sorry my memry sucks and this is a quickie)

Bard - weird claim but tbh not enough to lynch them over

MAYBE THEY COULD BE SCUMMY BECAUSE OF LRUKING BUT I FIND IT HARD TO FIND PEOPLE SCUMMY IN GENERAL SOOOOO ZONE:
freezeblade - what the hell is he still playing, wait he was replaced by kalira and the post in OP Not updated, OK. kind of lurky not sure.

dimhocka - lurky lurky lurky but seems to have good reasons so i won't hold it against you except i guess i just did putting you at the bottom of my list??

really everyone from "PROBABLY TOWNIE" zone and down is an acceptable lynch candidate IMO. i should try and work out a way to tell between them but we'll see. I HAVE MY EYE ON ALL OF YOU.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Madge » Wed May 31, 2017 6:43 am UTC

Madge wrote:Sabrar - not piling on me and defending me really well so FMPOV pretty dang townie since if they were scum it'd be a great way to get townie lynched, but probably nobody else should trust this read, UNTIL MY UNTIMELY DEATH (note: not planning on dying soon, scum feel free to kill me i guess?? or not, could I be a bulletproof PGO only one way to find out???)


(fixing underlined section): as in jumping on my wagon would be a great way to get me (townie) lynched


i should probabyl stop posting now
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 6:46 am UTC

Once more with feeling.

LaserGuy wrote:DethStalker wasn't a strongman. He had roleblock immunity.
Objection, your Honor! Irrelevant.
Strongman fulfills same purpose as roleblock immunity with regards to question at hand (YOLOSWAG being RB) and was easier to type. No idea why you thought this was worth mentioning...

LaserGuy wrote:What I find interesting is that you never considered (3) as a possibility, despite the fact that you said you didn't have any particular evidence pointing YOLO toward being buddies with DethStalker. Why didn't "oh, well, maybe they aren't on the same team then" cross your mind?
LOL. You say context is important and then you go and totally ignore it. You asked what team I think YOLOSWAG was on. I said normal. You asked why RB would be on same team as RB immune. The whole premise of this question is that you accept my hypothesis of YOLOSWAG being normal scum and you expect me to give you a valid reason why the two roles are on the same side. Nowhere in the question (and the surrounding context) is there any implication that you expect me to suddenly realize that my hunch must be incorrect.

Will do this in multiple posts due to work between.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby mpolo » Wed May 31, 2017 6:49 am UTC

Madge wrote:freezeblade - what the hell is he still playing, wait he was replaced by kalira and the post in OP Not updated, OK. kind of lurky not sure.


OP updated.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed May 31, 2017 6:50 am UTC

Madge wrote:
Madge wrote:Sabrar - not piling on me and defending me really well so FMPOV pretty dang townie since if they were scum it'd be a great way to get townie lynched, but probably nobody else should trust this read, UNTIL MY UNTIMELY DEATH (note: not planning on dying soon, scum feel free to kill me i guess?? or not, could I be a bulletproof PGO only one way to find out???)


(fixing underlined section): as in jumping on my wagon would be a great way to get me (townie) lynched


i should probabyl stop posting now


Just quickly, I don't think Sabrar really defended you well. Their defence of you is simply 'I don't think so.'
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 6:55 am UTC

@Bard: your arguments have some pretty big holes in them, one of them being that you mash together your tie with LaserGuy with the possibility of fake-claiming lover. To clarify:
DGames | Bard wrote:And to choose Laserguy, whom has been depicted by many as scummy in this game, which has effectively dragged down my own slot in terms of potential scumminess?
DGames | Bard wrote:would not have chosen someone that was being wagoned on and being depicted as scummy while Dethstalker's lynch was a possibility.
If LaserGuy is your scum-mate then you have no other option then to 'choose' him.
Also you never consider the possibility of you being supernatural.

I don't want to analyze this in detail (but can do so in the afternoon when I'll have more time if you really want me to) because I think our time can be spent on more productive things. If you're really Town you should try to scum-hunt instead of analyzing yourself (which will always be full of wine).

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 6:57 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Just quickly, I don't think Sabrar really defended you well. Their defence of you is simply 'I don't think so.'
Don't know why I bother with this but I pointed out a mistake that plytho made and made SDK realize that one of his train of thoughts was incorrect and pointed more towards town!Madge than scum!Madge. Both of these points were acknowledged by them so I think that my 'defense' was quite successful given the circumstances.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed May 31, 2017 7:09 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Just quickly, I don't think Sabrar really defended you well. Their defence of you is simply 'I don't think so.'
Don't know why I bother with this but I pointed out a mistake that plytho made and made SDK realize that one of his train of thoughts was incorrect and pointed more towards town!Madge than scum!Madge. Both of these points were acknowledged by them so I think that my 'defense' was quite successful given the circumstances.


Sorry, I missed that. I only remembered you saying it was a meta read, and you'd rather not discuss it.

I'll go and reread.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 7:23 am UTC

DGames | Bard wrote:As far as the "he should never ever be a play" comment is concerned, what if there was a cult (actually not sure if this is possible; didn't quite read the role-specific rules at the start of the game), or some kind of crazy mechanic that made him some anti-town deterrent? Possible alignment changes? I dunno!
Missed this in my previous reply. There are no cults or other alignment-changing roles in the game (rule 12 of game-specific rules). This was already cleared up once for Madge so I don't know why you would miss that.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 31, 2017 7:53 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Once more with feeling.

LaserGuy wrote:DethStalker wasn't a strongman. He had roleblock immunity.
Objection, your Honor! Irrelevant.
Strongman fulfills same purpose as roleblock immunity with regards to question at hand (YOLOSWAG being RB) and was easier to type. No idea why you thought this was worth mentioning...


Because a strongman has other functions beyond roleblock immunity. Having a roleblocker and a strongman on the same team wouldn't be particularly interesting. A little excessive, maybe, but it isn't a situation of having a role and its direct counter on the same side.

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:What I find interesting is that you never considered (3) as a possibility, despite the fact that you said you didn't have any particular evidence pointing YOLO toward being buddies with DethStalker. Why didn't "oh, well, maybe they aren't on the same team then" cross your mind?


LOL. You say context is important and then you go and totally ignore it. You asked what team I think YOLOSWAG was on. I said normal. You asked why RB would be on same team as RB immune. The whole premise of this question is that you accept my hypothesis of YOLOSWAG being normal scum and you expect me to give you a valid reason why the two roles are on the same side. Nowhere in the question (and the surrounding context) is there any implication that you expect me to suddenly realize that my hunch must be incorrect.


I expected you to engage in a bit of critical thinking and consider the most likely scenarios. The fact that I presented you with two pieces of information that appeared contradictory should have been enough for you to at least consider the possibility that your hunch was incorrect.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 8:03 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I expected you to engage in a bit of critical thinking and consider the most likely scenarios. The fact that I presented you with two pieces of information that appeared contradictory should have been enough for you to at least consider the possibility that your hunch was incorrect.
But you didn't. Roles were assigned randomly and duplicate roles are present. Therefore the 2 pieces are not contradictory even if YOLOSWAG isn't lying and if he is then the whole thing becomes irrelevant anyway. Why do you keep insisting that I should have answered a question you did not pose?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 8:05 am UTC

@LaserGuy: so you're interested in context and want to know why I 'hid' it. Right, let's walk through my thought-process:
- I ask you to choose a wagon or explain why not. For the record this request and my following push on other people was done for the same purpose why most of the questions are raised in this game: to force the other players to produce more content that can be analyzed later. No ulterior motives.
- Your reply says: 'Fine. One question for you first.' This to me reads like you are willing to follow my request but want to know one specific thing first for some reason.
- I answer your question.
- You have a follow-up question.
- I answer it as well.
- I have a follow-up question on my own.
- You reply to that but still don't comment on the wagons.
- Finally you decline to switch your vote, though you only comment on YOLOSWAG, not on Gopher.

This to me reads like you really don't want to vote for YOLOSWAG and keep finding excuses to avoid that. So with that idea in mind I sorted by author and re-read your earlier comments where I found very similar questions to the ones above. These - without context - indicated to me that these are not isolated instances but your general state of mind.
TBH I missed the fact that they were addressed to Bard and the preceding context and I should reread those in more detail. Some of the context you mention however is again irrelevant (asking the same question about another player for example), as they can serve as hiding the main intent among more valid content.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby DGames | Bard » Wed May 31, 2017 8:50 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Bard: your arguments have some pretty big holes in them, one of them being that you mash together your tie with LaserGuy with the possibility of fake-claiming lover. To clarify:
DGames | Bard wrote:And to choose Laserguy, whom has been depicted by many as scummy in this game, which has effectively dragged down my own slot in terms of potential scumminess?
DGames | Bard wrote:would not have chosen someone that was being wagoned on and being depicted as scummy while Dethstalker's lynch was a possibility.
If LaserGuy is your scum-mate then you have no other option then to 'choose' him.
Also you never consider the possibility of you being supernatural.

I don't want to analyze this in detail (but can do so in the afternoon when I'll have more time if you really want me to) because I think our time can be spent on more productive things. If you're really Town you should try to scum-hunt instead of analyzing yourself (which will always be full of wine).


My point is, is that this is all reaaaallllllly unlikely, and I'd rather redirect attention elsewhere; aka dispelling FUD. If Laserbro dies, I die. Other explanations involving fake claims are just too risky and silly, and you know this.

What I WILL concede to is the possibility that I am still scum despite having a lover's role, albeit this seems kind of messed up depending on how many people are a part of the super natural/guild faction, but whatever; I get that I'm not off the table, I'm fine with being on the table, but for the right reasons.

Frankly, I could cherrypick things that you've said as well, but I agree that it pretty much gets us nowhere (plus I'm on my phone and I don't feel like dissecting your points in a constant war of semantics, you're not my aim today unless there is some kind of revelation).

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby DGames | Bard » Wed May 31, 2017 9:11 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Bard: your arguments have some pretty big holes in them, one of them being that you mash together your tie with LaserGuy with the possibility of fake-claiming lover. To clarify:
DGames | Bard wrote:And to choose Laserguy, whom has been depicted by many as scummy in this game, which has effectively dragged down my own slot in terms of potential scumminess?
DGames | Bard wrote:would not have chosen someone that was being wagoned on and being depicted as scummy while Dethstalker's lynch was a possibility.
If LaserGuy is your scum-mate then you have no other option then to 'choose' him.
Also you never consider the possibility of you being supernatural.

I don't want to analyze this in detail (but can do so in the afternoon when I'll have more time if you really want me to) because I think our time can be spent on more productive things. If you're really Town you should try to scum-hunt instead of analyzing yourself (which will always be full of wine).


Just to show that I am capable of cherry picking you; I absolutely did acknowledge the possibility of being super natural. Check my post again, Scooby Doo! ;)

Additionally, I concede it's possible that myself and Laserguy could be guild scum, but do you really think we are guild scum? 4 guild scum, one of which is a lover in a game with cross killing. If a gun were put to your head and you had to make a decision, what's the verdict?

Kalira has mentioned that it would be pretty unstable and kind of unfair to do this in this type of game. Do you disagree with this?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 9:20 am UTC

DGames | Bard wrote:Just to show that I am capable of cherry picking you; I absolutely did acknowledge the possibility of being super natural. Check my post again, Scooby Doo! ;)
My mistake, conflated it with the 'Town Fake-claim possibilities' part because for some reason I thought it would be the same length as the 'Guild' part.

DGames | Bard wrote:Additionally, I concede it's possible that myself and Laserguy could be guild scum, but do you really think we are guild scum? 4 guild scum, one of which is a lover in a game with cross killing. If a gun were put to your head and you had to make a decision, what's the verdict?

Kalira has mentioned that it would be pretty unstable and kind of unfair to do this in this type of game. Do you disagree with this?
Again, we only have your word that you are lovers with LaserGuy. If you're lying about this then there is no point to discuss.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 9:51 am UTC

Was bored.

Guild
DGames | Bard wrote:1. If I am guild and Laserguy is my scum mate, I heavily jeopardize our faction by making such a bold claim ("laserguy is town and should not be a play") right from the start. We are forever connected at that point. If he is killed during the night by a supernatural, I will be automatically lynched the following day. I also would have willingly ensured Dethstalker's death as his mate, since Laserguy was the only other potential wagon at the time.
True but the upside is that LaserGuy gets to keep playing instead of DethStalker who looked very uncooperative. Plus as mentioned before you get town-credit for ensuring scum-lynch.

DGames | Bard wrote:2. If Laserguy is the Supernatural Chatterbox King of the Underworld and I am guild, then it would be the best case scenario for me since Guild wouldn't kill him in order to not jeopardize my claim, and no one else would kill Laserguy since he is the other faction barring Vigilantes (in other words, it would have to be completely blind luck for me to choose him as the Underworld dude).
From your pov you have no idea whether LaserGuy is Town or supernatural scum if he's not on your team. Handling these together (see below).

DGames | Bard wrote:3. If I am guild and Laserguy is town, this is not a bad situation for me to be in, but if that was my aim from the start, I would not have chosen someone that was being wagoned on and being depicted as scummy while Dethstalker's lynch was a possibility. Regardless, lets say I had reasons to think Laserguy was Town despite people wagoning him; I'm still taking a big risk and hoping he is not the Supernatural warlord of doom.
As mentioned by yourself if he's supernatural that's the best case scenario for you so I'm not seeing where that supposedly big risk is coming from. I don't think it is likely that scum!you would stick his neck out for someone who is not your team-mate, however I don't know your play-style and there is still a small chance that you would do something like that. Quick analysis of that scenario:
1. You are lynched or NK-d: there is a good chance that we would lynch LaserGuy next because it seems you were defending a team-mate. That's good for you.
2.a LaserGuy is lynched or NK-d: if he's supernatural then we obviously lynch you next. This is the main drawback however supernatural team has low numbers (something you can work out yourself) so this is less likely.
2.b LaserGuy is lynched or NK-d: if he's Town you get a small amount of town-cred without jeopardizing yourself too much (D1 you didn't claim Lovers so your fake-claim could have been tailored to suit the situation afterwards).

Town
DGames | Bard wrote:1. If I am Town and I die, then I could see myself getting forever banned for game-throwing if my gamble was wrong regarding Laserguy (I mean, seriously, that's just not a cool thing to do).
You're supposedly an experienced player, you know not to do this.

Supernatural
Not going to bother quoting you here, this is basically the same scenario in reverse as with Guild. And let me just point out that you did miss a possibility here, when both you and LaserGuy are supernatural scum together.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 10:13 am UTC

kalira wrote:Side question (meta): Are lovers here generally told the faction of their lover? I can't remember any games here that had that off the top of my head, but I could be misremembering (or just not knowing because it was in role PMs I didn't see).

Impromptu Mafia is the latest (alignment not included) but that was player-submitted.
Both Dollhouse and Smalltown PYP had standard town!Lovers and they were told the alignment of the other.

Actually, reading through kalira's post again I think there is merit in the idea that we have lovers (or unreciprocated lovers) in different scum-factions. That might make 3-3 possible, no experience with something like this.
I think that Bard is still safer to lynch than LaserGuy.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 10:52 am UTC

Puppies.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 12:31 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Meanwhile, are there any specific questions towards me?
1. Who is scum?
2. Why are you Town?
3. What is your opinion on freezeblade/kalira and Madge?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby dimochka » Wed May 31, 2017 2:14 pm UTC

So upon my reread of GoP, a few things stand out. GoP, if those were already addressed and I missed it, please point me to where.
1. First post mentions two scum factions, then proceeds to downplay that idea while mentioning SK and other possibilities. That doesn't change on D2. And then he questions madge regarding her 2:2 scum team opinion, saying that others mentioned 2:3 (yet failing to bring up his own opinion).
2. Dethstalker read. Already discussed, but I didn't really understand where the switch from "newbie town, and there are better targets that actually look scummy" to "unhelpful town, ok with lynching" happened. From my re-read, i would have expected him to try and persuade a different vote to happen. Also felt nit-picky, especially re:Jimbob.
3. Voting mechanics - easily accepts their presence in early D1, then wants townies to declare those early. This isn't scummy as much as just something I disagree with. Depending on the relevant power, scum may not need to kill the target - I think this is where we misalign - but instead would just need to be aware of it. Giving scum that extra info is in my opinion detrimental, especially that early in the game.
4. Scum reads - this could be complete coincidence, but the overwhelming feeling as I was reading GoPs scum vs. town list (and comparing to flips) is - he's been wrong most of the time. Could just be mistakes, but worth noting. Don't really see inconsistencies in his thinking or sudden changes other than what I already mentioned.

So for me GoP falls somewhere in the bucket between strangely misguided townie and potential scum. I initially thought he may have hinted at being vig (early D1), but at this point I doubt that he is one. If he is scum, I think supernatural is more likely.

-----------

madge
-agrees we should keep vote mechanics secret from scum at this point. seems to hint that her role may have some kind of vote manipulation mechanic.
-pm points to supernatural and non-supernatural ppl
-mentions cults as possibility
-points to me as having some insider knowledge re: my setup prediction
-role is probably a duplicate of someone else's

Honestly not finding Madge helpful. Her claims that her power is useless seem more frustrated townie than not (and align with madge's usual town play where she likes actual data to vote for someone), but could definitely be scum avoiding reporting something that can backfire.
@Madge - it would help if you would do a bit of a more comprehensive analysis of someone that isn't assumed town by most. Even if it's me

EBWOP: @Sabrar, I'll respond in a moment. This should actually answer one of those questions. Looking at plytho with next post I'm doing now but felt like I should post something meanwhile.

Bard is still my first pick for a lynch, but I find GoP as a possible candidate at this point, though i'd appreciate if people opined on the things I picked up.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby dimochka » Wed May 31, 2017 2:32 pm UTC

Edit: my bard analysis post is at work and I don't want to re-create it from scratch. I'll post it when I get into work in about an hour and a half. I'll just add to it the answers to sabrar's questions.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby dimochka » Wed May 31, 2017 2:36 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Actually, reading through kalira's post again I think there is merit in the idea that we have lovers (or unreciprocated lovers) in different scum-factions. That might make 3-3 possible, no experience with something like this.
I think that Bard is still safer to lynch than LaserGuy.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't that fall under non-randomized setup then? I'm not discounting that as a possibility, but then that would mean that there was a decent chance (from a probability standpoint) for 3-3 with townies being one-sided lovers, or town-scum pair.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 2:41 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't that fall under non-randomized setup then?
Didn't consider that. You have a point there, however (and I apologize for bringing this up again) Diablo showed us that even completely randomized setups might still have some hidden mechanics in the background.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 2:58 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:4. Scum reads - this could be complete coincidence, but the overwhelming feeling as I was reading GoPs scum vs. town list (and comparing to flips) is - he's been wrong most of the time.

I don't see this one.
D1 list: gets Sabrar1.0, bessie right plus most likely SirGabriel plus dimochka from your pov on the town side. Gets YOLOSWAG right on scum-side. Wrong about BoomFrog and jimbob. Don't see how that is 'wrong most of the time'.
D2 list: this is a bit worse, gets BoomFrog and most likely SirGabriel wrong at scum-side, gets YOLOSWAG right, town-side is filled up with still living players. Still does not warrant your comment in my opinion.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SDK » Wed May 31, 2017 3:03 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't that fall under non-randomized setup then?
Didn't consider that. You have a point there, however (and I apologize for bringing this up again) Diablo showed us that even completely randomized setups might still have some hidden mechanics in the background.

We're explicitly not full random this game: "some powers were guaranteed to go with a certain faction".

I'm not feeling good about the Sabrar vs. LaserGuy fight. Doesn't feel like town on town, and something about the way Sabrar is treating it is bugging me. However, Bard is also feeling more like an okay lynch at this point. I'm just going to get to my rereads and see where we go from there.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SirGabriel » Wed May 31, 2017 3:25 pm UTC

I really don't like how Bard has been playing today, especially how he thinks we should take him at his word that he's a lover whether we think he's scum or not. And LaserGuy has been looking scummy all game, but probably isn't a good lynch target just in case Bard is telling the truth. As I said before, I would prefer to finish off a whole faction of scum today, but I would not be opposed to lynching Bard if everyone thinks he/LaserGuy are the scummiest players left.

If I had to guess, GoP or Madge is the other remaining scum, but neither of them looks as scummy as Bard/LaserGuy.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Wed May 31, 2017 4:30 pm UTC

Bard’s a much more active player than the previous three I read and I have a lot less time today to read.

Here are his posts referring to the LaserGuy claim before the full claim.
Confirmation post with first breadcrumb of LaserGuy love
Second breadcrumb post
Claim LaserGuy is town
Been crumbing all day
Relationship is lopsided
All of these are consistent with the lover claim.

Bard started D1 pretty well, he was engaging people and asking questions. On D2 though he doesn’t seem to have done any scumhunting. He called Gopher scummy and voted for him with very limited motivation. I thought Gopher was scummy at that point and that may be a reason I didn’t pay attention to Bard’s lack of motivation. Looking back I guess it was a little frustrating for me that the two people (Bard and SirGabriel) who thought Gopher was scummy weren’t helping me make a case.

He keeps avoiding making proper reads even when prompted by SDK.

In this post he responds to SDK’s question for more detail on a number of players by saying he doesn’t know why others don’t find Gopher scummy. Later on he says he feels comfortable with me and SirGabriel, without any reasoning:


DGames | Bard wrote:
SDK wrote:Day 2, you posts a reads list, which was helpful. Even more helpful is a quick description of why you feel that way about each player, but if that's too much to ask I'll settle for more detail on Gopher, BoomFrog, YOLOSWAG, SirGabriel and plytho. Gopher in particular is a must considering you're voting for him, yet every time you mention him all you can say is that you need to reread him again.


I'm trying to understand why more people aren't readily going for him, which is why I suggest that I need to reread (I'm not super confident on anything unless it's modconfirmed).

As an aside, if it turns out I have been misreading Gopher this entire game, I will have to really apologize to him post-game (or if he's confirmed town at some point, etc.)

DGames | Bard wrote:What do you think is the right path from here? Do you think I am just brutally wrong about GoP and should be voting for someone else/Yolo? I see your vote is on SDK; whom would you vote for in this situation assuming it was ultimately between yolo or GoP, or would you still push for SDK/Bessie?

SDK wrote:This is addressed to LaserGuy, so I assume you're talking to a townie here. Did you ask these questions to try to guide yourself to a conclusion with another townie's help? Are there any other townies you would feel comfortable working with?


Yeah, that's why I asked him. He's an interesting guy, my King. Instead of picking a side though, he seems to be playing diplomatically in this regard. :x. None the less, I must support him, even if it leads to a potentially bitter end. D:

I feel pretty comfortable with Plytho and Sir Gabriel. I did feel comfortable with Bessie albeit she did end up gunning for Laserguy, which in turn indirectly painted me as potential scum from her point of view, possibly. Doh.



The claim:

DGames | Bard wrote:Everything makes a lot more sense now, but I strongly believe SDK is independent. If it's true that lyncher generally ends the game on this site, then he needs to get bodied. Not trying to spread FUD but it just seems way too scummy. He had all the incentive and morivation to pretend that he had confirmation of Bessie's alignment in order to get her killed.

As for my claim:

I am a 1-shot bodyguard as well as an unreciprocated lover of Laserguy.

Laserguy is confirmed Town in my PM. There is a drawback to this though. If he is lynched, I will also die with him. I am a lover so to speak but the love is unreciprocated; if I am lynched, he will not die.

If Laserguy is killed during the night, I will not die, but I will lose my ability as a 1-shot bodyguard because I am "distraught" over Laserguy's death and will not be able to vote during the following day phase (seems like there is A LOT of vote manipulating stuff in this game).

Not going to confirm whether or not I have used my ability yet or what that entails to for obvious reasons (wine for night time).



Interesting, Bard thinks SDK might be independent. Perhaps because he is independent himself?

It also doesn’t make all that much sense for SDK to be independent and still in the game. If he’s a lyncher he has fulfilled his wincon and there’s no reason for him to remain in the game. Unless he’s a lyncher/survivor but that seems like a weird combo. So SDK is still in the game because he still has the town wincon. Unless the lyncher claim is false but at this point I can’t imagine why.

Possibilities:
A Bard isn’t in love with LaserGuy, he just made that up to protect his buddy.
A1 I think this doesn’t make sense for a two man scum team. It’s way too risky. Especially considering the breadcrumbs. If you don’t make that lovers claim you look scummy so if one of you flips the other one follows soon. If you do make the claim you’re likely to be killed by the other scum team at night.
A2 It might make a little more sense as two out of a four man scum team but it still carries most of those risks.

B Bard is in love with LaserGuy

B1 they are scumbuddies: pretty much the same as A and in the case of a two man scum team, mean modding. Possible in a four man scum team and a save like that makes sense if you both risk dying from the lynch. I’m not sure there’d be breadcrumbing though.

B2 they are both town. On the face of it, still a possibility.

B3 Bard is town and LaserGuy is scum: makes no sense as town!bard supposedly got confirmation of LaserGuy being town and this game isn’t bastard.

B4 Bard is scum and LaserGuy is town: In this case (if the claim from the role pm can be believed, which it can’t since Bard is sum in this hypothetical) scum!Bard should have killed LaserGuy N1 and taken the penalty. If Bard is in love and would die if LaserGuy was nightkilled this scenario would be a balance issue I think.

B5 Bard is scum and LaserGuy is rival scum
This could make sense balance wise and explain why Bard made that claim as scum

B6 Bard being independent has basically the same issues as SDK being independent. What’s his wincon if LaserGuy is nightkilled.

So, probable scenarios:
A2, B2, B5
Less probable to improbable: all the rest.

I forgot who called me a nitpicker but Bard forgot he had LaserGuy confirmed as town here:

DGames | Bard wrote:Just about anyone here could be scum except for SirGabriel at this point, at least from my point of view.

Oh, it was Bard who called me nitpicky two posts later :)

This post just bugs me.

Bard posts some opinions on players, once again with very little reasoning.
And then there’s this line:
DGames | Bard wrote:My scumdar is shooting rockets all over the place for GoP but no one wants to go for him :<.
That really annoys me because I was clearly willing to go for Gopher yesterday but I didn’t get any support. I expected other people voting for Gopher (Bard and SirGabriel) to help me build a case by supporting my reasoning and providing more reasoning against Gopher. That didn’t happen so I concluded that town wasn’t convinced by my argument and I was probably mistaken. So I dropped my case and started looking elsewhere for scum. If Bard had helped me build a case by providing reasoning why Gopher continues to looks scummy to him there’d be support today. Instead he’s complaining why nobody is thinking what he’s thinking without explaining why. I know he said he likes to keep his cards close to his chest but by not sharing anything he's not helping. I feel if Bard is townie he isn’t working hard enough to help town.

So my general feeling is Bard's not town. I don't really see the connections besides LaserGuy so I'm not sure which team he could be on.
Huh, ctrl-effing Madge turns up exactly 1 result in all of Bard's posts (in his reads list). He questions dimochka on his vote early D1 but other than that no mention of him. I'm not sure if this could indicate anything. I'm trying to fit the pieces of the puzzle. Is there a possibility that Madge, Bard and LaserGuy are all scum? I'm feeling more confident in my scum read of Madge than in my scum read of Bard but either is fine for the lynch today. I really do believe Madge may be the last guild scum and lynching her would remove a night kill. But I think we might learn more from Bard's flip.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SirGabriel » Wed May 31, 2017 4:38 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Is there a possibility that Madge, Bard and LaserGuy are all scum?

Is it possible they're all scum? Absolutely, I would not be surprised to find that Bard and LaserGuy are on one scum team and Madge is on the other.
Is it possible they're all scum on the same team? Highly unlikely in my opinion, as that would imply that either (1) we started out with at least 6 scum, or (2) the second kill last night did not come from the guild even though no one has claimed vig.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act I opens

Postby SDK » Wed May 31, 2017 4:43 pm UTC

In the interest of reading into players' content, could anyone who has a posting restriction and not yet claimed it just post explicitly what it is? I have none.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 4:47 pm UTC

I am old and occassionally have to remind the young ones to read their lines properly.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Wed May 31, 2017 4:55 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
plytho wrote:Is there a possibility that Madge, Bard and LaserGuy are all scum?

Is it possible they're all scum? Absolutely, I would not be surprised to find that Bard and LaserGuy are on one scum team and Madge is on the other.
Is it possible they're all scum on the same team? Highly unlikely in my opinion, as that would imply that either (1) we started out with at least 6 scum, or (2) the second kill last night did not come from the guild even though no one has claimed vig.

Yeah I agree they're probably not on all the same team. But I also don't really think Bard and LaserGuy are on the same team.
I think we have two teams instead of one team + SK. So I don't think it's Bard and LaserGuy as guild + Madge as SK. I also don't think Bard would make such a visible connection to his buddy D1 if they're a two man scum team. So I'm not really seeing how it could fit.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Wed May 31, 2017 4:56 pm UTC

I have no posting restriction.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby DGames | Bard » Wed May 31, 2017 6:02 pm UTC

I won't have time today to do further investigating or back and forths, but here's the deal:

If you guys don't believe my claim and opt to lynch one of myself and Laserguy, lynch me first.

If you do believe the claim, I think we should go for GoP.

Later gators!


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