Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:55 am UTC

I really only suspected them yesterday. I copped YOLO night 1, Boomfrog N2, and Madge N3. I had them all down as scummier than Sabrar. Last night I had my special action, so I did not get a choice as to who I would get.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:57 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:If kalira gifts to yourself or plytho, and madge can target plytho, who targets randomly. If plytho dies, that would point to madge as being scum. If madge gets plythos target wrong, it points to her being scum.
Nope. Scum wants us not to be able to clear Madge and killing her target is the best way to do that. That's why Madge needs to target randomly and you suggesting otherwise even though I spelled out the reasons extensively is very suspicious.

On another note I've noticed that you selectively don't react to certain arguments, especially when those show your scummy side. Example here and here (second point). Might I ask you to reflect on those matters?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:20 am UTC

You were the one who said madge should target plytho. I was going off your top thing.

If you want to check madge, get her to target me. I will not die during the night, and you can decide who claims first. If dimochka had a falseclaim that involved a targetable ability, she could have targeted dimochka, but alas. I would then have to target randomly during the night, from yourself, plytho and kalira.

Your first link:
I would assume that there would be little changes from the standard set up. The broad roles seem very similar (I think the only change to scum roles was unroleblockable instead of ninja, whereas town roles seem very similar, only with things added. It was an assumption yes, but the whole argument is kinda useless, as a goon is the same as a rolecop in this case (unless the rolecop gets details of roles, which I kinda doubt, for instance, the exact nature of kalira's gifts.)

Your second link:
I had forgotten about bessie's vote on me. These situations are why I'm not a big fan of vote mechanics. I have no reply to that, as it pokes a hole in my argument. The only thing I can say is that it relies on two players being alive at the end, instead of just one. To my perspective, they are both town as well.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:37 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:You were the one who said madge should target plytho. I was going off your top thing.
And then I pointed out why that's a bad idea and shared my final conclusion at the bottom.

Gopher of Pern wrote:If you want to check madge, get her to target me. I will not die during the night, and you can decide who claims first.
Does not clear her either way if you're scum.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I would assume that there would be little changes from the standard set up.
Snipped the quote (before you accuse me of taking things out of context again). You still do not provide an explanation for specifically thinking zero T. That is a scum-slip due to TMI (too much information).

Gopher of Pern wrote:I had forgotten about bessie's vote on me.
Kind of hard to swallow especially in light of your entrance.

Vote: Gopher of Pern

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:46 am UTC

EBWOP: Madge needs to target completely randomly from all players with Tracker. kalira needs to send the gift I'm thinking about to either plytho or myself.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:11 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:I would assume that there would be little changes from the standard set up.
Snipped the quote (before you accuse me of taking things out of context again). You still do not provide an explanation for specifically thinking zero T. That is a scum-slip due to TMI (too much information).

Gopher of Pern wrote:I had forgotten about bessie's vote on me.
Kind of hard to swallow especially in light of your entrance.

Vote: Gopher of Pern

I'm committed to this.


I think zero T, because I am cop. Going from what I said when I fully looked into the standard set up, there was up to 2 T's missing from the setup. Those 2 T's would be filled in by me being a full cop. I'm sorry if I did not make this clear.

That was weeks ago. bessie's been dead since day 3. Of course I could forget.

Fine. Have fun losing. Doesn't matter what anyone does tonight if you lynch me.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:13 am UTC

EBWOP 2: I believe it does not matter who we lynch today as both dimochka and Gopher of Pern are scum, still the latter is the safer choice.

You know what?

Unvote

so we can discuss this.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:29 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I think zero T, because I am cop. Going from what I said when I fully looked into the standard set up, there was up to 2 T's missing from the setup. Those 2 T's would be filled in by me being a full cop. I'm sorry if I did not make this clear.

Can you go into details how you took into account the Masons and the Inventor? Specifically can you give a line-by-line breakdown on how you determined that there were 2 T-s missing?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby plytho » Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:55 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:plytho, you thought I were coaching three people. They can't all be scum. So I'd been coaching town too?
As I said before I’m not sure who your buddy is. I said that post felt like you coaching buddies somewhat and pointed out the three people I suspect to be your buddies. I’m not saying that’s definite conclusive evidence of you coaching these three. I’m saying that it feels like you’re telling LaserGuy to back off bessie a bit, and trying to urge Madge or dimochka to post some more.

kalira wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@kalira: would you be willing to reveal just the abilities of all the gifts you can hand out (with nothing said about what went to whom and what remains available)? I would like to check something.


To be perfectly frank, it worries me when you say you want to "check something." Game probably won't depend on my gifts, but with us being this close to losing, I'm slightly suspect of the request on its surface. Would like opinions from others before agreeing to do so.

I don’t think you should share.

Sabrar wrote:Vote: Gopher of Pern

I'm committed to this.

Sabrar wrote:EBWOP 2: I believe it does not matter who we lynch today as both dimochka and Gopher of Pern are scum, still the latter is the safer choice.

You know what?

Unvote

so we can discuss this.

Not that committed I guess :D

How did you conclude dimochka is scum?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:08 am UTC

plytho wrote:Not that committed I guess :D
I'm committed that we should lynch Gopher of Pern today but we can use the time available to discuss things.

plytho wrote:How did you conclude dimochka is scum?
Mostly by finding the other players more townie. Also it makes sense for the last 2 scum to bus each other super-hard in this situation where it already looked very likely that one of them would end up as the lynchee today.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:51 am UTC

Or it still could be Madge. There are a number of things that trouble me about her but that could all be just standard Madge for all I know. I never could read her properly.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:44 am UTC

@dimochka: why didn't you claim PGO? Serious question.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:31 pm UTC

1. Sabrar as Regan — Killed N1: one-shot doctor
2. Znirk Sabrar as a Servant
3. freezeblade kalira as the Duke of Cornwall
4. SDK as Edgar – Killed N3: Wizard
5. SirGabriel as the Earl of Gloucester: Killed N4: Mason
6. Gopher of Pern as King Lear
7. Madge as Oswald
8. BoomFrog as The Fool — Killed N2: Tracker
9. plytho as Goneril
10. DethStalker as the Duke of Burgundy — Lynched D1: Guild unroleblockable
11. dimochka as Cordelia
12. bessie as Edmund — Killed N2: Mason
13. jimbobmacdoodle as an Officer — Killed N1: one-shot seer
14. #HBC | YOLOSWAG as the Doctor — Lynched D2: Guild roleblocker
15. LaserGuy as the King of France — Lynched D4: Phantom roleblocker
16. DGames | Bard as the Earl of Kent — Lynched D3: Guild goon

We have, for the supernatural side:
SDK as Wizard (Doctor) (D)
jimbobmacdoodle as one-shot seer (Cop) (C)

Hmm, you're right. I think I had (original) you down as a one shot doc against supernatural attacks, instead of against guild attacks. Which made it DDDDC at the time. With my cop, it made it DDDDCCC, leaving no T's. My mistake.

Looking at the cast now:

LaserGuy -- claims 1-shot tracker (no restrictions). Tracked plytho N3 (visited no one).
Gopher of Pern -- claims supernatural cop. Negative results on YOLO, BoomFrog, Madge.
plytho -- claims doc for Guild kills. Protected SirG, Sabrar, SirG.
Madge -- claims tracker (except for non-supernatural kills). Targeted bessie N2 (visited no one), GoP N3 (visited Madge).
dimochka -- claims 1-shot guardian against supernatural kill. Protected Sabrar N2.
Sabrar (v2.0) -- claims cop identifying Guild members. Negative results on SirG, GoP.
kalira -- claims inventor. Sent items to bessie N1, SirG N3.
SirGabriel -- confirmed mason with bessie.

Only Madge, dimochka and I have claimed stuff for dealing with supernatural.

Confirmed deaths: DC
With my claim: DCCC
With Madges claim: DCI
With dimochka's claim: DDDDC (with a jailkeeper not claimed)

Now, to compute the possibilities is a bit tedious, but already dimochka stands out as leaving a big hole in the claims. Mine and Madge's can be consistent with what we know, Dimochka can't. So either they are lying, or the setup has been changed drastically.

I will look at the guild side now.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:42 pm UTC

1. Sabrar as Regan — Killed N1: one-shot doctor
2. Znirk Sabrar as a Servant
3. freezeblade kalira as the Duke of Cornwall
4. SDK as Edgar – Killed N3: Wizard
5. SirGabriel as the Earl of Gloucester: Killed N4: Mason
6. Gopher of Pern as King Lear
7. Madge as Oswald
8. BoomFrog as The Fool — Killed N2: Tracker
9. plytho as Goneril
10. DethStalker as the Duke of Burgundy — Lynched D1: Guild unroleblockable
11. dimochka as Cordelia
12. bessie as Edmund — Killed N2: Mason
13. jimbobmacdoodle as an Officer — Killed N1: one-shot seer
14. #HBC | YOLOSWAG as the Doctor — Lynched D2: Guild roleblocker
15. LaserGuy as the King of France — Lynched D4: Phantom roleblocker
16. DGames | Bard as the Earl of Kent — Lynched D3: Guild goon

LaserGuy -- claims 1-shot tracker (no restrictions). Tracked plytho N3 (visited no one).
Gopher of Pern -- claims supernatural cop. Negative results on YOLO, BoomFrog, Madge.
plytho -- claims doc for Guild kills. Protected SirG, Sabrar, SirG.
Madge -- claims tracker (except for non-supernatural kills). Targeted bessie N2 (visited no one), GoP N3 (visited Madge).
dimochka -- claims 1-shot guardian against supernatural kill. Protected Sabrar N2.
Sabrar (v2.0) -- claims cop identifying Guild members. Negative results on SirG, GoP.
kalira -- claims inventor. Sent items to bessie N1, SirG N3.
SirGabriel -- confirmed mason with bessie.

Sabrar - one-shot doc (D)
Boomfrog - Tracker (I)
YOLO - Guild roleblocker
Bard - Guild Goon
Dethstalker - Guild unroleblockable

Substituting ninja with unroleblockable, gives T or TT for scum.

plytho claims doc (DDDD) with jailer?
Sabrar 2.0 claims cop (CC)

leaving us with the same problem as before. plytho's claim can't be true.

Unless jailkeepers aren't in the game, and DD gives one doc, and a one-shot doc? Unless Kalira's inventor occupies a jailkeeper role, it doesn't make sense. I don't think masons were included in the setup; I think they were put in to give otherwise vanilla town a power.

Hmm, this was possibily a waste of time. Unless someone else can think of something?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:59 pm UTC

I think setup has been modified to a degree where following the formula on the site is no longer applicable (only the general principle applies). BTW I think that unroleblockable comes from inter-scum balancing, Tier 2 vs Tier 3, called Strong-will. Therefore guild should theoretically have 3 or 4 T-s, allowing only for DCCI, leaving my v1.0 one-shot Doc out (as that is not even in the setup except for DDDD). Ghosts have at most 2 T-s but probably 0 if you are rolecop, let's assume that dimochka is your buddy, we have DCI + 4 other letters to account for 2 Masons + Inventor. Theoretically possible, however Masons should be shared among townies (not only effective against a single type of scum) and probably Inventor as well so it would be kind of silly to assume that all these were attributed on the Ghost side, making them Tier 3. Same problem if we assume you're telling the truth or if Madge is your scum-buddy.
Summary: original setup fits the known info but it was modified so that above analysis has no chance of producing reliable results.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:09 pm UTC

I was assuming that any role not focused on one side or the other would have been put on vanilla town, as the setup normally includes them. So 2 masons and inventor would be put in. I'm not sure how that would have been balanced for scum though. Maybe mpolo thought there were too many docs? Not like they've done us any good.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby plytho » Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:44 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Or it still could be Madge. There are a number of things that trouble me about her but that could all be just standard Madge for all I know. I never could read her properly.

Can we think of a strategy to figure this out? If madge randomly targets one of you, me and kalira tonight (and kalira doesn't target Madge again) we can verify with 80% certainty if madge is tracker.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:57 pm UTC

Probably last attempt at setup-guess. Assume mpolo likes symmetry. Takes linked setup as guide, assigns 1 Cop, Doc, Tracker for each of the 2 scum-factions. Has special place in heart for Masons, includes 2. This, together with 2 dead townies with 1-shot powers (probably random distribution) would give 10 townies in total, so nobody else can fit in. Leaves kalira + dimochka as team-mates with LaserGuy. Will review that possibility but I think it is much more likely that roles were really set up randomly and we cannot use arguments such as "X's power mirrors Y's" as reason to trust anyone.

@plytho: not really, because (as mentioned before) scum!Madge can claim to have targeted the dead townie, town!Madge has 33% chance to have equally targeted the dead townie and we have no way to determine which case is true. Additionally say for example that you claim to have targeted me and Madge claims that you targeted kalira (who was the NK in this example). We only know that 1 of you must be lying, this doesn't necessarily mean that Madge is not the Tracker. We still get some useful info out of this so we should obviously try but I wouldn't put too much hope in it.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:17 pm UTC

Don't see kalira as LaserGuy's team-mate but I found a small thing upon re-read. I pose a question at separate stages of the game to both LaserGuy and Gopher of Pern, they seem to ignore it and then the other comes and reminds them to answer it. Coincidence?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby plytho » Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:24 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@plytho: not really, because (as mentioned before) scum!Madge can claim to have targeted the dead townie, town!Madge has 33% chance to have equally targeted the dead townie and we have no way to determine which case is true. Additionally say for example that you claim to have targeted me and Madge claims that you targeted kalira (who was the NK in this example). We only know that 1 of you must be lying, this doesn't necessarily mean that Madge is not the Tracker. We still get some useful info out of this so we should obviously try but I wouldn't put too much hope in it.

Yeah, I guess my 80% was high. I don't want to calculate the percentage but let's say there's a 50% chance that town!Madge tracks a surviving townie. Given a 50% chance that Madge is town. Following the plan gives us 25% chance to confirm Madge as tracker and a 75% chance we can't confirm.
@Madge do you feel like following the plan? Targeting one of me, Sabrar and kalira?
@kalira do you feel like following the plan? Not targeting Madge?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby mpolo » Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:48 pm UTC

Votals:

Gopher of Pern (1): dimochka
dimochka (1): Gopher of Pern
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby dimochka » Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:59 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@dimochka: why didn't you claim PGO? Serious question.

Serious answer - it's part of what got me lynched d1 in Dark Tower, when people found it weird. And I realized that game that for the people who don't get the reference (which is apparently most), it is indeed weird. So I decided to drop it altogether. I actually wanted to live past d1.

My reading of madge yesterday didn't do much to help this case. Strangely enough I did not even remember my playing in Pen Pals, so most of the time I was reading I was trying to figure what madge's role was. She did have a different meta there (less confused-sounding, more certain, more pushy), but she was also an independent so it's not quite the same thing. In the other example she got lynched D1 as scum, but we all know how much Madge loves D1. With that being said, everything else ignored, i'd say her playstyle is different from those two.

Gopher of Pern wrote:There is no town redirector, and everyone's results have seemed to be on point, so it is highly unlikely scum would have a redirector, as that would unbalance the scum teams.

We have quite a few one-shot powers, so I didn't feel that the question was out of place. Unlike you I'm actually considering different possibilities.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Re: NL: You know #1 is bogus, and #2, well, I considered that possibility, but if so, we are likely lost already.

#1 I actually don't know this as bogus, but ok. #2 if there is a traitor, you're correct. If there is a survivor, then no. The survivor can choose teams (and would actually be able to play kingmaker if that were the case), but that's likely irrelevant.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I don't think kalira should give gift to myself or dimochka. Whoever gets lynched, the other is likely to get killed in the night, due to being confirmed town.

This actually sounds very weird, and feels like it's coming from scum's perspective. Here's why (just going to use boolean cases):
Case 1: GoP is town, I'm town. One of us gets lynched. Scum keeps the other alive because he'll be pegged as scum and lynched first thing tomorrow.
Case 2: GoP is town, I'm scum. If GoP is lynched, I'm not getting killed at night because I'm scum, so that's irrelevant. If i'm lynched, GoP would get killed to avoid being confirmed town.
Case 3: GoP is scum, I'm town. Exact opposite of case 2. If GoP is lynched, I get killed at night to avoid being confirmed town. If I'm lynched, GoP survives because he's scum.
Case 4: GoP is scum, I'm scum. Regardless one of us survives the night.

So a few things here:
1. In most cases, the other person likely survives the night. Actually in only 2/8 cases (each of the above 4 cases has two options depending on which one of us is lynched) the other person dies at night.
2. You would probably agree that living players (you and me excluded) are currently finding you more scummy than me. And this was also the case when you wrote this post. Now from that perspective, you should at least give weight to the possibility that you would get lynched today. The only scenario in which you get lynched today and I get killed at night is Case #3, the case in which you're scum and I'm town. That's pretty much all that needs to be said.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:35 pm UTC

Wow. Wrong.

Case 1: irrelevant. There is no possibility we are both town.
Cases 2/3: If the town person gets lynched, town loses. If scum person gets lynched, town person likely dies in the night.
Case 4: Ok...we give a power to scum. But this isn't the case anyway.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby kalira » Thu Jun 15, 2017 6:19 pm UTC

Phone post, sorry for short.

I think i would be okay not sending Madge an invention tonight so scum!Madge doesn't have a ready made tracking result.

I feel like town!dim should be more suspicious of GOP at this point, so I find it a little suspicious that he forgot there's no way both of them can be town.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby dimochka » Thu Jun 15, 2017 6:22 pm UTC

kalira wrote:I feel like town!dim should be more suspicious of GOP at this point, so I find it a little suspicious that he forgot there's no way both of them can be town.

I literally said that I'm doing a boolean case analysis (and I'm sorry if this wasn't clear). This isn't about forgetting, this is just making sure I mention all hypothetical possibilities.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 15, 2017 6:34 pm UTC

But they are not possibilities, and even if you count them, you should discount them for your conclusion.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby dimochka » Thu Jun 15, 2017 6:41 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:But they are not possibilities, and even if you count them, you should discount them for your conclusion.

But in my mind, someone who is town would consider all the possibilities, not end up at a conclusion that for me only makes sense (like I explained) if the person writing is scum. This isn't related to the fact that I believe you're scum based on your claim. This is how I interpret how you wrote it. I always analyze all possibilities, regardless how remote.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 15, 2017 6:50 pm UTC

Well, why dont we analyse the possibility that we are all town, and mpolo just kills a random person each night? Its a possibility, right? /s
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:27 pm UTC

I can totally understand where dimochka is coming from regarding the 'analyze all the possibilities' thing, I do the same. However I'm suspicious of his wording in the below cases (emphasis mine).

dimochka wrote:This actually sounds very weird, and feels like it's coming from scum's perspective.
He should be really sure that Gopher of Pern is scum and this does not seem like he's coming from that angle.

dimochka wrote:But in my mind, someone who is town would consider all the possibilities,
This feels very much like scum pretending to think with town's head.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby dimochka » Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:35 pm UTC

I don't really see how else you would phrase it. I know that he's scum but the rest of you don't. I literally don't know what other language/words I would use.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:41 pm UTC

'Feels like' sounds like you're not sure about it. I would simply say 'This is coming from scum because...'

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby dimochka » Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:46 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:'Feels like' sounds like you're not sure about it. I would simply say 'This is coming from scum because...'

What I didn't like about several of GoP posts is how for me it feels like it's exploring a singular direction, and completely ignoring the other side (case in point him saying that he won't engage me, and there were a few other specific examples). My point was, if someone other than me looks at it, this is what it would look like. Looking back I would not have changed my language, because if someone responds" this is coming from scum because", that would actually look suspicious to me - like he's trying to make me not look at both sides. It automatically feels WINE-y.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:55 pm UTC

Disregarding that I have engaged you, If I know you are scum, why should I engage you?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:05 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Disregarding that I have engaged you, If I know you are scum, why should I engage you?
Because it makes the game more fun? Why do you think I continue to discuss things with you?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Madge » Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:16 pm UTC

plytho wrote:@Madge do you feel like following the plan? Targeting one of me, Sabrar and kalira?


I'll target whoever I damn well please, which may be someone in your list. As before, I'll claim who I targeted and any results I have tomorrow.

I don't want scum to know who I'm targeting, and it doesn't matter to town what I'm doing until after I've done it. If scum knows they can assign their kills accordingly (that said, knowing my luck they have a ninja...), or aim to kill someone in the set I've said I'll target from so I'll conveniently have killed someone who can't counterclaim. I don't even know who I'll target, I'll make that decision once night falls, and I'm avoiding thinking about it RN so I can avoid letting scum see where my head is at.

If I die tonight, and I'm not the only one,then Kalira's invention likely killed me (I will be using it tonight). So I will not target Kalira as I think testing her invention is good enough to confirm her FMPOV.

Dim's boolean analysis is very, very interesting and looks very bad for GoP. He's really looking scummy. I'd place a vote on him but, you know, MYPLo and all.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:19 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Disregarding that I have engaged you, If I know you are scum, why should I engage you?
Because it makes the game more fun? Why do you think I continue to discuss things with you?


Because a part of you thinks I'm town? :)

How does Dim's analysis make sense? I'll go through it, step by step.

Case 1: Both town. This case is irrelevant. GoP would not claim another person as scum unless they were sure they were scum. Can discount. Plus, if one is lynched, it's game over.
Case2: GoP scum, Dim town. If GoP is lynched, Dim will likely die due to being confirmed town. If Dim is lynched, game over. Can dismiss.
Case3: Dim scum, GoP town. If Dim is lynched, GoP will likely die due to being confirmed town. If GoP is lynched, game over. Can dimiss.
Case 4: Both scum. Possible. But ultimately irrelevant. It means if the survivor gets the item, they will use it to scums advantage.

So, we have 4 cases we can dismiss due to game over. 2 cases where town player likely dies, and 2 cases where scum player survives.

Therefore, there are no cases where a town player survives to use the gift! Making it a bad plan, which was my point all along!

Wow, it's almost as if logic works!
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Madge » Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:45 am UTC

dim wrote:Case 1: GoP is town, I'm town. One of us gets lynched. Scum keeps the other alive because he'll be pegged as scum and lynched first thing tomorrow.
Case 2: GoP is town, I'm scum. If GoP is lynched, I'm not getting killed at night because I'm scum, so that's irrelevant. If i'm lynched, GoP would get killed to avoid being confirmed town.
Case 3: GoP is scum, I'm town. Exact opposite of case 2. If GoP is lynched, I get killed at night to avoid being confirmed town. If I'm lynched, GoP survives because he's scum.
Case 4: GoP is scum, I'm scum. Regardless one of us survives the night.



Gopher of Pern wrote:How does Dim's analysis make sense? I'll go through it, step by step.

Case 1: Both town. This case is irrelevant. GoP would not claim another person as scum unless they were sure they were scum. Can discount. Plus, if one is lynched, it's game over.
Case2: GoP scum, Dim town. If GoP is lynched, Dim will likely die due to being confirmed town. If Dim is lynched, game over. Can dismiss.
Case3: Dim scum, GoP town. If Dim is lynched, GoP will likely die due to being confirmed town. If GoP is lynched, game over. Can dimiss.
Case 4: Both scum. Possible. But ultimately irrelevant. It means if the survivor gets the item, they will use it to scums advantage.

So, we have 4 cases we can dismiss due to game over. 2 cases where town player likely dies, and 2 cases where scum player survives.


Dim's conclusion is that your analysis ("Whoever gets lynched, the other is likely to get killed in the night, due to being confirmed town") comes from scum POV.

So we have 8 cases (4 alignments + 2 lynches for each). I don't think we necessarily lose if we fail to lynch scum. We've lynched scum every single time so far. I think mpolo is telling us it's a possibility because it is due to vote powers. I'd personally feel cheated if we lost on our first mislynch (unless mpolo has a good explanation...)

Case 1: Two town is possible IMO - GoP could have been redirected or interfered with in some way, Dim could be a miller and misread his role PM, etc. It is not impossible so cannot be dismissed entirely (agreed it's far less likely, I'd barely rank it as possible, but it IS possible)

1a: GoP Lynch - dim kept alive due to being "confirmed scum" and lynched tomorrow
1b: Dim lynch - GoP kept alive due to being "confirmed scum" and lynched tomorrow

Case 2: GoP Town, Dim Scum:
2a: GoP lynch - dim not killed at night
2b: Dim lynch - GoP killed at night (confirmed town)

Case 3: GoP Scum, Dim town
3a: GoP lynch - dim killed at night
3b: Dim lynch - GoP not killed (confirmed town)

Case 4: Both scum
4a: Dim survives night
4b: GoP survives night

Analysis:
Non-lynched player survives the night in 6/8 of the cases (total)
Non-lynched player survives the night in 4/6 of the "likely" cases (cases 2-4)
Non-lynched player survives the night in 3/4 "GoP scum" cases (cases 3-4)

Dimochka has pointed out that GoP's statement ("Whoever gets lynched, the other is likely to get killed in the night, due to being confirmed town") makes the most sense if posted by scum!GoP.

Admittedly it's about as minor as tells get, and I've made worse gaffes than this and I know I'm town, so you know. It's probably a bit much to jump on.

I'm just wondering how we can be in MY(P)Lo with 6 players remaining: we can't have 2 scum left, can we? We've killed 2 phantoms, right? I guess it's that alleged traitor?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:59 am UTC

I've had modly confirmation that I could not be redirected. Dim could be a miller, but if they are, they deserve to die. It can be dismissed.

I'm not following your logic. If it comes from point of view that I'm scum, but 3/4 the non-lynched player survives when I'm scum, how does it come from scum|GoP? I was considering mainly cases 2 and 3, as cases 1 can be dismissed, and in case 4 means scum gets the gift, rendering it irrelevant for my analysis. Remember, the whole point of this exercise was to get one of Kalira's gifts to town tonight in a NL, and have them use it on the following night. There is no point in choosing between myself and dim, because game will end in cases 1, 2a, and 3a, and it gives it to scum in 4. 2b and 3b is where town gets it, but they likely die. Hence my point.

It's as if no one reads my posts. You are all scum. Madge is traitor. Sabrar and Dimochka scum buddies. Kalira is indy, who wants town to lose. plytho is a jester who failed horribly. Yeah, that sounds right.

We have lynched one supernatural (Laserguy). I seriously hope the game wont end with my lynch. But it likely will.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:13 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Case2: GoP scum, Dim town. If GoP is lynched, Dim will likely die due to being confirmed town. If Dim is lynched, game over. Can dismiss.

This is so bad it actually hurts. In case 4 you admit that it's possible that both of you are scum, but here you state that lynching scum!you would confirm town!dimochka. Remember that we won't know which case it is just from your flip. It's like you don't even try to fully think through the situation.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act V: The end is near, but perhaps not near enough

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:22 am UTC

@Madge: if you are Town you need to realize that this is a group effort, it's not enough if you successfully see scum perform the NK, you have to make us trust you so we don't mislynch you. Therefore you have to target a player that makes sense, i.e. not your potential scum-buddy.
Also if you choose your target randomly it avoids all mind-games regarding scum killing them to deny info.
Please confirm that you'll target one of kalira, plytho and myself and please do not come up afterwards with any excuses why you didn't follow the plan.


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