Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Game over! - Wing Condition

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Madge » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:21 am UTC

Votals:

Somitomi - (1) - LaserGuy
Jimbobmacdoodle - (1) - Sabrar

Day ends in approx. 1 days, 20 hours
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby somitomi » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:11 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:This one is a bit better, but you're still avoiding actually analysing anything.

LaserGuy wrote:Then, here, you're using passive voice to obfuscate the fact that the doubts you're talking about weren't your doubts, they were the doubts of other players.

That is clearly a failing on my part, although it wasn't intentional in any way.
flicky1991 wrote:LaserGuy, you are really going after individual people in this game - me earlier, now somi. That might just be your playstyle but it stands out when everyone else is giving more varied opinions on different players.

I actually kind of appreciate him going after me, because this way I have some idea about the impression my posts make. And being directly addressed makes me post more, for better or worse.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:38 am UTC

Okaaay, I go away for the weekend and then everything blows up. Well, not everything, but you get the idea.

I skimmed through the thread over the weekend, but didn't have time to post anything then, and don't have time to go back through things now, so this is all from memory.

I've been considering whether flicky could be lying, and the conclusion is that I really doubt it. Scum!flicky would not put themselves in the spotlight and stop an easy mislynch of town!heuristically_alone, especially given the risk of being counter-claimed. Similarly, if they are both scum, flicky is unnecessarily outing himself in order to save heuristically_alone, but which could backfire given a counter-claim (from what I can recall, scum have at best, a 50% chance at guessing the setup, depending on whether they have a roleblocker or not). Conclusion: flicky and heuristically_alone are town.
LaserGuy wrote:Also this:
Madge wrote:Bessie has been assigned as a mentor for laserguy
That explains why I read you as so townie. Even when mentoring, bessie still looks super-townie :lol:

I don't remember all the reasons Sabrar has me as scum, but a couple stuck out to me over the weekend, which felt like a super weak reason, namely the bit about not believing me regarding my answer about why I didn't do setup spec early on. He claims that this is out of character, but neglects the fact that I've rarely played in semi-open or open setups. Similarly, he didn't like my late vote for heuristically_alone, but I usually wait until after my big reads post before voting. In that, I explicitly said I'd likely vote heuristically_alone and then did so, having gone back over a few players as I said I wanted to.

The way I remember reading that whole post was that his preferred lynch target suddenly just got cleared, so he's had to hurriedly put together a different wagon to push.

More thoughts this evening at some point, including a vote, my completed reread of LaserGuy, and rereads of Sabrar, somitomi and dimochka (I believe the two scum to be in those three).
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:58 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:especially given the risk of being counter-claimed
Look at the setup. Town has exactly 1 out of {Jailkeeper, CoP, Tracker} (main diagonal). Therefore if scum false-claims any of these roles then there is always a Town PR who can counterclaim. This is evident from the setup and doesn't need the 'analysis' that you just gave.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I don't remember all the reasons Sabrar has me as scum, but a couple stuck out to me over the weekend, which felt like a super weak reason, namely the bit about not believing me regarding my answer about why I didn't do setup spec early on. He claims that this is out of character, but neglects the fact that I've rarely played in semi-open or open setups.
Alternating 9P Mafia comes to mind but I admit that closed setups are the norm here. Still I don't see how that would influence your penchant for setup-analysis.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Similarly, he didn't like my late vote for heuristically_alone
Now you're just putting words in my mouth. Me mentioning that fact was just to show the flaw in LaserGuy's reasoning and not something I based my read on.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The way I remember reading that whole post was that his preferred lynch target suddenly just got cleared, so he's had to hurriedly put together a different wagon to push.
- Hurriedly? I found your content suspicious right from the beginning of D2.
- Please show where I expressed my 'preference' as to my D2 lynch target.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby heuristically_alone » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:05 pm UTC

That "hurriedly" pinged me as well. What is wrong with a townie who, upon discovering their preferred lynch target as jimbob puts it, has that player cleared, and immediately starts scum hunting a different target? That sounds pro town to me. And now jimbob is trying to convince us that protown behavior is scummy.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby dimochka » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:33 pm UTC

Let the record show that I pretty much never play on weekends (or when I mod i try not to let games end on a weekend). Got a modprod last night, opened the thread and promptly fell asleep. So this is not me lurking. I'm on my way to work now and when I get there in about an hour I'll go through all the questions and will be able to post actively until end of this day.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:47 pm UTC

@dimochka: Let the record show that I usually ask for mod-prods after 2 days of inactivity (counting the weekend as 1 day). You last posted on Thursday and even promised more content while not following up on previous promises. In light of your comment made after Shakespeare I believe that you are not intentionally lurking but given that we're already on extension I really think that you need to post more.
Apologies if that came out too hard.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby dimochka » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:58 pm UTC

@Sabrar - it's not a problem at all, just wanted to respond. Just got into work so catching up now. I didn't actually realize about Friday because I worked from home - my fault.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby dimochka » Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:39 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:I can understand that, and yet in a game I played recently I had all scum (and I think the SK) on my bandwagon, so I don't assume this anymore.
That was Dark Tower and you remember correctly, all 4 scum were on your wagon. Granted Mafia needed a scapegoat to lynch instead of jimbob so in case heury is Town the situation might be different here.

Yes and no. What I was trying to say is - at the end of the day, Heury was on dethstalker's wagon, so it is perfectly possible that Heury + someone else got on that wagon to avoid Heury being lynched. If Heury is town, then yes it's not applicable.

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:I also noticed something that felt like scum setting up targets for d2, but I can't find it now. Going back to look in a moment.
Please come back to this.

Here it is, in response to Jimbob. I couldn't find it earlier. This feels to me like a post made to be used later to further support a point:
heuristically_alone wrote:I loke the soft defense on Dethstalker. If Dethstalker flips scum, For me that makes you look scummier. If he flips town, then neutral.

This is likely moot now, but when I was reading it, it wasn't.

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:I really don't like the votes on dethstalker. A lot of it seems opportunistic. I'll call out specific examples in next post.
You call LaserGuy townie, me 'not scummy', that doesn't leave a 'lot' of opportunistic votes left. What was it that you meant with this comment exactly?

Here's what I don't like. Mpolo, somitomi, and jimbob, in their own individual ways explain how dethstalker's posts are weird but not necessarily scummy. But Laserguy immediately votes him, and the only other posts he mentions him is one where he suggests that he claim. While this aligns with his explained meta and putting pressure on a person, it still felt off. At that point (and actually i think the whole way through), it was a misunderstanding. Similarly Sabrar's logic of both town and scum being equally likely to make that post - I don't agree. Heury is no different. Basically I read dethstalker as townie that was doing some very strange and unhelpful things, and it seemed to me that some people were using the exact same logic to find him scummy. Keep in mind that (if you choose to believe this) I didn't read the thread at all before subbing in, so this was my perception as I was going through.

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:(seems to be putting himself in a leader role for no reason)
I've enjoyed being the 'leader' in Shakespeare III (for all the good it did) however as stated here I'm purposefully trying to avoid doing the same in this game. Anyway I'm not sure how you can arrive from me informing the newbies about the conventions of RVS to me wanting to become a leader? How is that different from any of the other advice given previously?

Here is what I'm referring to:
Sabrar wrote:@all: with LaserGuy's vote the RVS (random voting stage) is definitely over, it is customary to unvote if you placed a joke-vote before.

We were only a page in, and you were already basically telling everyone what to do and putting yourself in a leader position. And that position often defaults to looking more townie. Sure you're informing newbies, but your tone leaves no other options that won't directly against it. I find some value in RVS, and therefore don't like it being stopped so abruptly.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:43 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@all: with LaserGuy's vote the RVS (random voting stage) is definitely over, it is customary to unvote if you placed a joke-vote before.

We were only a page in, and you were already basically telling everyone what to do and putting yourself in a leader position. And that position often defaults to looking more townie. Sure you're informing newbies, but your tone leaves no other options that won't directly against it.
We're reading Sabrar's tone very differently to each other here. "It is customary" is hardly "telling everyone what to do".
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:54 pm UTC

I attempted to do a proper reads list post earlier in D2 but I was finding it hard to get a proper read on anyone since all the content just seemed to be quibbling over exactly what people meant rather than actually analysing content. (Uh... like I did just then. :oops: ) So it was hard to decide who was being scummy. If I'm going to be honest, if it hadn't been for my cop result, I wouldn't even be reading heury much better today - I was just trying to hint at my result without stating it.

jimbob really seems to be saying that he can't remember parts of the thread or the setup very often. It's stuck out to me on top of the points Sabrar has raised. I'm thinking back to that set of questions he raised during D1 that a lot of us found suspicious, too. So jimbob is my most scummy read right now.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby dimochka » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:03 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
dimochka wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@all: with LaserGuy's vote the RVS (random voting stage) is definitely over, it is customary to unvote if you placed a joke-vote before.

We were only a page in, and you were already basically telling everyone what to do and putting yourself in a leader position. And that position often defaults to looking more townie. Sure you're informing newbies, but your tone leaves no other options that won't directly against it.
We're reading Sabrar's tone very differently to each other here. "It is customary" is hardly "telling everyone what to do".

It might be semantics, but the "definitely" is what I think got to me.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:33 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:It might be semantics, but the "definitely" is what I think got to me.

I already thought RVS was over because of DethStalker's vote but I wasn't 100% sure. LaserGuy's vote clarified the situation, hence the wording.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:24 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Here it is, in response to Jimbob. I couldn't find it earlier. This feels to me like a post made to be used later to further support a point:
Ok, I can see this.

dimochka wrote:Mpolo, somitomi, and jimbob, in their own individual ways explain how dethstalker's posts are weird but not necessarily scummy.
Same question to you as to LaserGuy: where do you see mpolo not finding DethStalker scummy? Actually, same question regarding somitomi as well.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:09 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:jimbob really seems to be saying that he can't remember parts of the thread or the setup very often. It's stuck out to me on top of the points Sabrar has raised. I'm thinking back to that set of questions he raised during D1 that a lot of us found suspicious, too. So jimbob is my most scummy read right now.
To clarify, the vast majority of my posts this game have been on my phone on my way to or from work, meaning I was limited for time, and also couldn't easily go back through the thread (it's partly why my attempts at re-reading players have taken so long). I've also been extremely busy away from work, which has made it hard to keep everything in my head at once, hence the inability to remember details. I've still yet to see a satisfying reason why my first and third questions could be found suspicious, unless you are solely talking about my setup question (Q2), which I could just maybe understand.

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:especially given the risk of being counter-claimed
Look at the setup. Town has exactly 1 out of {Jailkeeper, CoP, Tracker} (main diagonal). Therefore if scum false-claims any of these roles then there is always a Town PR who can counterclaim. This is evident from the setup and doesn't need the 'analysis' that you just gave.
A fair point. As noted above, my memory of the full setup needs refreshing from time-to-time - I had in my mind that there were setups where people could safely false-claim, but at least from the cop point of view, there isn't. Sorry for analysing something that I'd not realised/forgotten was pointless.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I don't remember all the reasons Sabrar has me as scum, but a couple stuck out to me over the weekend, which felt like a super weak reason, namely the bit about not believing me regarding my answer about why I didn't do setup spec early on. He claims that this is out of character, but neglects the fact that I've rarely played in semi-open or open setups.
Alternating 9P Mafia comes to mind but I admit that closed setups are the norm here. Still I don't see how that would influence your penchant for setup-analysis.[/quote]Because most of my setup speculation these days is to try to figure out relative breakdowns of different factions (i.e. how many scum and indies), which is clearly not relevant here.

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:No, not just because he correctly called DethStalker as townie. Rather because he went out of his way to defend a player behaving in a really scummy manner. There's a lot of risk and very little benefit to a scum player making this type of move unless they were fairly certain they knew which way the lynch was going to go, which wasn't the case here. It's not ironclad as it is in the case if heury flips scum, but I'm pretty confident that jimbob is town at this point.
Disagree, I did exactly the same thing in Diablo as scum. It's a good way to later shift the focus on people on the mislynch-wagon just like jimbob is trying to do here. With heury being town he basically lined up his D2 target while avoiding the spotlight as he voted only after DethStalker reached 3 votes first.
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Similarly, he didn't like my late vote for heuristically_alone
Now you're just putting words in my mouth. Me mentioning that fact was just to show the flaw in LaserGuy's reasoning and not something I based my read on.
The way you phrased that first post suggested that everything I'm doing is because I'm scum. That is why I recalled it as you not liking the vote. Sorry for misinterpreting. I do however take issue with your statement about me trying to shift focus though as you are portraying the whole thing as that I'm definitely scum. Looking at a mislynch wagon for scum is a perfectly normal thing to do, in my opinion, especially as I was reasonably certain that heuristically_alone was scum, until flicky's claim, meaning that there was a good chance that a scum buddy would be trying to defend him. Yes, scum can do it as well, especially if there was actually no scum on the wagon, but it's certainly not guaranteed being a scum.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The way I remember reading that whole post was that his preferred lynch target suddenly just got cleared, so he's had to hurriedly put together a different wagon to push.
- Hurriedly? I found your content suspicious right from the beginning of D2.
- Please show where I expressed my 'preference' as to my D2 lynch target.[/quote]I'll come back to this in my re-read. My initial feeling at the time was that you had pushed heuristically_alone a lot more than others.

Reread of Sabrar to follow in a bit.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:11 pm UTC

EBWOP to fix last quote and add one small point to clarify:
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The way I remember reading that whole post was that his preferred lynch target suddenly just got cleared, so he's had to hurriedly put together a different wagon to push.
- Hurriedly? I found your content suspicious right from the beginning of D2.
- Please show where I expressed my 'preference' as to my D2 lynch target.
I'll come back to this in my re-read. My initial feeling at the time was that you had pushed heuristically_alone a lot more than others, though this may be wrong.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:It's interesting that the other experienced players, mpolo, dimochka, and jimbob all fell on the side of DS being misguided town, whereas Sabrar went with scum.

- Why do you state that mpolo read him as Town at all?


I think I was thinking of this post which I interpreted to mean that mpolo thought DethStalker was confused or there was some language barrier issue. You're right though, he never said DethStalker was town.

Sabrar wrote:- Why do you take dimochka's word of reading DethStalker as town after the flip at face-value?


Meta reasons, mostly.

dimochka wrote:Here's what I don't like. Mpolo, somitomi, and jimbob, in their own individual ways explain how dethstalker's posts are weird but not necessarily scummy. But Laserguy immediately votes him, and the only other posts he mentions him is one where he suggests that he claim. While this aligns with his explained meta and putting pressure on a person, it still felt off.


DethStalker was already my scummiest read before this incident happened.

somitomi wrote:That is clearly a failing on my part, although it wasn't intentional in any way.


Who is your scummiest read at present and why?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I've still yet to see a satisfying reason why my first and third questions could be found suspicious, unless you are solely talking about my setup question (Q2), which I could just maybe understand.


The third question is fine. As I said earlier, the first question is more helpful to scum than to town. You weren't asking "Who are your towniest reads?", you were asking "Who should scum kill tonight?" The answer to one question is not necessarily the same as the other. Town shouldn't be giving scum advice on how to win.

Sabrar wrote:Vote: jimbobmacdoodle


Sabrar, can you give me a short summary of your case on jimbob?

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby somitomi » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:39 pm UTC

I've read back in the thread to formulate a fresher opinion on the people still in play, so here goes:
Flicky claimed cop, which I don't see any reason to doubt at this point. Some of his earlier posts hint at knowing more about heury than he revealed at the time. With that, Heury is confirmed townie as well. This also means we're either in setup 2 or B.
Sabrar seems to have taken some kind of leader attitude (as others have noted), but I don't know if that indicates his alignment in any way. IIRC he was about to vote Heury but switched to DethStalker in the end, which is slightly suspicious to me. This post feels biased towards cop claiming, I don't think the Cop not claiming "guarantees" a mislynch.
LaserGuy seems to follow a tactic of focusing on one player at a time & asking in-depth questions about their replies. This resulted in Flicky claiming perhaps too early, but nonetheless this seems more like something a townie would do. Scum might want to force a claim, but I don't think they'd would strike up a conversation with me, because a lurking townie benefits mafia as a possible mislynch target.
Jimbob's content seems okay, although I didn't agree with the idea, that people on the DethStalker wagon are necessarily suspicious. He still appears to be pushing that way, but I think that could be because the votes on other players came from him and confirmed townies. I also noted, that he always promises follow-up posts, that don't necessarily happen.
Dimochka's hard to judge for lack of D1 posts, one thing I found odd is posting reads on people, whose alignment has already been revealed. I don't see the point of it, but I'm not sure what scum would hope to gain this way.
LaserGuy wrote:Who is your scummiest read at present and why?

I'm going to say Sabrar based on the above, but not very confidently.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:22 pm UTC

Sabrar re-read:
Spoiler:
Spends first day discussing setup. Asks for more people to discuss setup. Responds to my questions about his post. Doesn't like my snap-judgement, given my questions. Challenges heuristically_alone on his response to my questions. Understands where I'm coming from with Q2. Prods Jbby for content. LG is townie, HA scummy, ambivalent towards me. Too many lurkers. Baffled by DS's mpolo case. Doesn't like HA's defence. Flicky ok. Vote would be on HA at this point, except for L-2 risk. Switches to voting DS after deciding he is likely newbie scum. Disagrees with LG over claiming. Ordered reads-list. Explains low activity. States why he believes DS is scum, not town. Asks why I haven't looked at the setup. Asks somitomi to vote.

D2, FoS somitomi for some not providing enough connections (presumably for not voting). Has issues with my focus on players on the wagon. Considers merit of cop claiming town result. Looks at my comments some more, and discusses with flicky about them. Wonders why mpolo was killed as well. Disputes LG's reasons for me as town, but agrees on vote analysis except for LG clearing somitomi. Asks HA why he thinks points about DS were worth mentioning and also why scum will be on specific wagons. Asks dim about who HA scum partner might be, or who else might be scum. Responds to dim points. Continues to disagree with LG over his reasons for me being town. Has 2 scum from dimochka, me, somitomi and LG, due to flicky's claim. Dimochka - bad vibes, needs more stuff. LG - townie, but dislikes push for claims and his defence of me. somitomi - active lurking, and needs more content. Me - discussed previously, especially doesn't like my response to his quetsion re. looking up the setup. 50/50 as to whether somitomi or dimochka are scum buddies with me - somitomi has lots of me toos, and other minor issues. Asks LG about some comments.
Some questions for Sabrar:
1) What did you think about my Q1 and Q3? You never answered or commented on them. Is it just Q2 you found suspicious in that post?
2) What was your aim with all the early setup discussion? In particular, what was your aim in trying to revive it after the first day, when other topics had also started to come up?
3) Why did you not bring up your concerns with my response to your question about why I hadn't looked up the setup before your posted your read on me?
4) If you had me as scummy for the whole day, why did you wait so long to vote for me? Why didn't you vote for me earlier when you were previously stating you were confident I was scum, given that nothing changed in the meantime?

Observations:
On D1, Sabrar seemed happy to talk about a few different things, and ask lots of people questions. His only scum read was heuristically_alone until DethStalker came along with his weird statements about mpolo, whereupon he jumped on him. I have no particular issue with that. His comments on some players was pretty minimal. Of particular note was that he said almost nothing about mpolo or somitomi. On somitomi, he suggested he should get a mentor and offered to help him in his very first post, then placed him as third-towniest in his ordered reads list with no comment on his content, before finally poking him to vote in the tail end of the Day. At this point, if I am looking for a scum-buddy for Sabrar, somitomi could easily be it. Also, I think it's reasonable to say that without DethStalker being around, he would have been quite happy to lynch heuristically_alone. Obviously, both are town, so in other situations, this could be considered suspicious, although that doesn't really say much as most players were in that boat in this game.

Moving onto D2, I admit that I don't see what I'd previously felt as a "hurried" target change, although it still feels a bit sudden the explicit suspicion of me, which is not how I'd read his comments about me. On the lynch target, I'd obviously carried over Sabrar's lynch-target preference from his D1 suspicions of heuristically_alone. My gut though still feels like he's suddenly cranked things up several notches for no clear reason besides that cop claim.

I also spotted one, admittedly possibly very weak, potential scum slip in his cop results analysis (emphasis is mine):
Sabrar wrote:probably gets useful result N2 which could help solve the game (especially if he investigates the roleblocker)
This may simply be the way Sabrar talks, I admit, but this feels like he knows that there is a roleblocker. This was prior to flicky's claim, and so could only have been known for certain if Sabrar is scum.

Conclusion:
I can't point to any clear evidence, but I simply do not feel good about much of Sabrar's play. He seems to be picking on very weak reasons and trying to blow them up into much larger cases than they actually are (see e.g. his suspicions about my response to the setup question). I think that he's trying to manufacture a case against me to stop town bandwaggoning scum-buddy!somitomi, and the only options are me or dimochka (everybody is reading LaserGuy as very townie, and flicky and heuristically_alone are essentially confirmed town). He knows that some players have had suspicions on me in the past, so has chosen to focus on me, as there's more content to pick at, and more chance of swaying town to his side. He is barely interacting with somitomi at all - with the exception of his very first post, his last post of D1, and first post of D2, his comments on/to/about somitomi are confined to just his reads list of possible scum (where he labelled him simply as active lurking with no real attempts to prod him into further action, in contrast to what he's said to other players), and responses to somebody else asking him about his read on somitomi (which response felt a bit like a cop-out). What he has otherwise been said about him could easily be seen as an attempt to coach his scum-buddy.

FMPOV, there are two scum in {Sabrar/dimochka/somitomi/LaserGuy} and I really doubt it's LaserGuy based on my partial re-read and overall feeling. I really need to reread somitomi, to see if the case for a Sabrar/somitomi scum team makes sense from their point of view, but that will have to wait until the bus ride into work in the morning. I'm also conscious that I haven't had time to complete my LaserGuy re-read or look at dimochka really at all, and I won't get a chance to go over them probably before deadline. In the meantime though:

Vote Sabrar

I'd love another extension, if possible (say 24 hours), but I'll live without if others don't think it's beneficial.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:38 am UTC

Votals:

Somitomi - (1) - LaserGuy
Jimbobmacdoodle - (1) - Sabrar
Sabrar - (1) - Jimbobmacdoodle

Day ends in approx. 1 days, 3 hours

If people want an extension, I'm willing to give another 24 hours - though that will fall on a day I'm not at work, so I can't promise that night will be called promptly. Perhaps people would prefer a 12 hour extension which would be easier for me to call on time?
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby heuristically_alone » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:18 am UTC

I'm almost always against an extension. But I always fear to admit it, but now that I'm confirmed town I can get awat with it.

When sabrar says "especially if he investigates the roleblocker" I think that is just the way he talks, always assuming the role is in the game if there is no evidence saying otherwise. And either way, jimbob, most likely by the end of d3 we will know the setup ao we could hold off on sabrar, and if there is a roleblocker in the game go hard at sabrar.

A question I see worth analyzing is, out of somi, sabrar, and jimbob, which lynch if flips town gives us the most useful information?
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:41 am UTC

somitomi wrote:I don't think the Cop not claiming "guarantees" a mislynch.
If you check the context, he was talking about whether cop should or shouldn't claim to prevent a mislynch, i.e. when there are already a lot of votes on someone the cop knows is townie. That's why he worded it that way.

I'll have another read through tonight and lock a vote in.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:10 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Sabrar, can you give me a short summary of your case on jimbob?

My case on him comes primarily from his claim that he didn't read the setup. To me that looks like him trying hard to sell the idea that he's VT (because scum and PR would obviously do so) to the point where he says that he's not sure whether Jester could be in the game. Seriously? Jester in a game specifically for newbies?
I have some other concerns as well regarding his content but to be fair it is possible that I'm prejudiced against him because of the above:
- His original questions (one of which was a slight variation of mine that he 'found' scummy).
- He originally wanted to limit scum-hunting to only the players on the DethStalker wagon.
- He exhibits the same pattern that plytho showed in Shakespeare (something I should have picked up on then as I encountered the same in a previous game). And I'm fully aware that you bussed him there but I think your points were valid.

To note: jimbob claims irl as reason which actually could explain that first part. Need to re-evaluate.

@jimbob: will reply to you next.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:37 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Some questions for Sabrar:
1) What did you think about my Q1 and Q3? You never answered or commented on them. Is it just Q2 you found suspicious in that post?
2) What was your aim with all the early setup discussion? In particular, what was your aim in trying to revive it after the first day, when other topics had also started to come up?
3) Why did you not bring up your concerns with my response to your question about why I hadn't looked up the setup before your posted your read on me?
4) If you had me as scummy for the whole day, why did you wait so long to vote for me? Why didn't you vote for me earlier when you were previously stating you were confident I was scum, given that nothing changed in the meantime?

Quick answers before I need to work, will reply to analysis later.
1) I didn't notice at first why Q1 is bad to answer but I fully agreed with LaserGuy (even though I didn't say it in the thread). Q3 I don't like to answer based on so little information (like Jbby only making a single post without any content) and later in the day it became irrelevant (as you asked for a 'right now' opinion).
2. Regarding the initial one I already answered here. Regarding your second question I'm not sure whether you mean 'after the first day' as irl or in-game time but either way I don't see what you're referring to. Late D1 I don't think I mentioned the topic, D2 you were the first to go into setup speculation, specifically asking about other players' opinions.
3. I don't notice everything at first read-through and even though your answer pinged me it took me time to realize why.
4. Usually I don't vote in the first half of the day or so. It helps to prevent quick band-wagons and an early hammer, giving us more time to talk.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:40 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I've still yet to see a satisfying reason why my first and third questions could be found suspicious,
Just noticed this, did you ever answer LaserGuy here?

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:44 am UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:A question I see worth analyzing is, out of somi, sabrar, and jimbob, which lynch if flips town gives us the most useful information?


I would say one of Sabrar/jimbob in that case. I would be extremely surprised if both were scum, so lynching one and hitting scum clears the other, and lynching one and hitting town implicates the other. I think you could make the case for either one being a scummate of somitomi. Though if we aren't sure between the two and both are potential partners for somitomi, it might make more sense just to lynch somitomi. Hitting scum tonight puts us in a vastly stronger position than hitting town (especially if we're in the setup with the cop/doctor/roleblocker manage to nail the roleblocker), so I think it's probably better not to hedge too much. We will get information from every flip.

Sabrar wrote:My case on him comes primarily from his claim that he didn't read the setup. To me that looks like him trying hard to sell the idea that he's VT (because scum and PR would obviously do so) to the point where he says that he's not sure whether Jester could be in the game. Seriously? Jester in a game specifically for newbies?
I have some other concerns as well regarding his content but to be fair it is possible that I'm prejudiced against him because of the above:
- His original questions (one of which was a slight variation of mine that he 'found' scummy).
- He originally wanted to limit scum-hunting to only the players on the DethStalker wagon.
- He exhibits the same pattern that plytho showed in Shakespeare (something I should have picked up on then as I encountered the same in a previous game). And I'm fully aware that you bussed him there but I think your points were valid.

To note: jimbob claims irl as reason which actually could explain that first part. Need to re-evaluate.

@jimbob: will reply to you next.


Thanks. I'll come back to this tomorrow. For convenience of others, in the linked post, Sabrar is referring to this:
You've done something, which in isolation, isn't really a problem, but is a pattern that's pinged me a bit. You'd make a statement, someone would point out something that looked odd about it, then you'd immediately retract it. There's nothing wrong with this in principle. People make mistakes all the time. But it's happened a lot (eg. here, here, here, here, and here), which to me sort of feels like you don't really believe in a lot of things you're saying.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby somitomi » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:09 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
somitomi wrote:I don't think the Cop not claiming "guarantees" a mislynch.
If you check the context, he was talking about whether cop should or shouldn't claim to prevent a mislynch, i.e. when there are already a lot of votes on someone the cop knows is townie. That's why he worded it that way.

Oh, okay.
LaserGuy wrote:I would say one of Sabrar/jimbob in that case. I would be extremely surprised if both were scum, so lynching one and hitting scum clears the other, and lynching one and hitting town implicates the other.

That would be more than surprising, since they voted on each other.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:28 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:This may simply be the way Sabrar talks, I admit, but this feels like he knows that there is a roleblocker. This was prior to flicky's claim, and so could only have been known for certain if Sabrar is scum.
It gets tedious and repetitive to write out in every sentence "in my opinion", "from my point-of-view", "in case the scenario is such that" and so on. I tend to skip these when I think it's obvious from context, see another example here.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:He seems to be picking on very weak reasons and trying to blow them up into much larger cases than they actually are (see e.g. his suspicions about my response to the setup question).
Double standard much? Seems to be a recurring issue. Your comment above about me mentioning RB is sooo weak.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:then placed him as third-towniest in his ordered reads list with no comment on his content,
In my read list I didn't comment on anyone (except for mpolo), not sure what you're getting at here. somitomi's content looked more townie than scummy at that point so I put him above the neutral line, what other explanation do you need?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:He is barely interacting with somitomi at all
I interact more with people whom I disagree with, who have more content and who ask questions. None of this really applies to somitomi, though I haven't sat down to read his latest list in detail.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What he has otherwise been said about him could easily be seen as an attempt to coach his scum-buddy.
Please point to specific examples from D1 where I 'coached' somitomi. D2 you don't need to bother because I would have spent hours during N1 to write him a full novel about the game and decision-trees to follow in every possible setup. But be my guest to show this as well if you want.

So from the whole thing I get the feeling like jimbob wants to distance himself from somitomi, so that after he is lynched (either today or tomorrow after my mislynch today) there would be less suspicion on him. However out of {dimochka, somitomi} I'm reading dimochka as more scummy at the moment so I would definitely prefer to lynch jimbob first.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:02 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:This may simply be the way Sabrar talks, I admit, but this feels like he knows that there is a roleblocker. This was prior to flicky's claim, and so could only have been known for certain if Sabrar is scum.
It gets tedious and repetitive to write out in every sentence "in my opinion", "from my point-of-view", "in case the scenario is such that" and so on. I tend to skip these when I think it's obvious from context, see another example here.
Like I said, I admit that this isn't much of a point, and it's not the crux or even a significant part of my case. I added it because it pinged me.
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:He seems to be picking on very weak reasons and trying to blow them up into much larger cases than they actually are (see e.g. his suspicions about my response to the setup question).
Double standard much? Seems to be a recurring issue. Your comment above about me mentioning RB is sooo weak.
Maybe, but there's a big difference between me openly acknowledging that it's a weak point and you forming a major part of your case around it.
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:then placed him as third-towniest in his ordered reads list with no comment on his content,
In my read list I didn't comment on anyone (except for mpolo), not sure what you're getting at here. somitomi's content looked more townie than scummy at that point so I put him above the neutral line, what other explanation do you need?
I was referring to your lack of comment about him at all prior to that. In isolation what you did is fine, but it's combined with your complete lack of commentary on him throughout D1.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What he has otherwise been said about him could easily be seen as an attempt to coach his scum-buddy.
Please point to specific examples from D1 where I 'coached' somitomi. D2 you don't need to bother because I would have spent hours during N1 to write him a full novel about the game and decision-trees to follow in every possible setup. But be my guest to show this as well if you want.[/quote]Your very first post where you advise him amongst other things to get a mentor, and your late post encouraging him to vote. Nothing concrete again, but it's the whole picture that's important. As you say, N1, you would have done as much as you could have to plan things out, so there is not going to initially be any coaching at least, but your first D2 post's focus and FoS on somitomi felt like a pre-planned attempt to distance yourself, especially given your lack of any real follow up, IIRC.
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I've still yet to see a satisfying reason why my first and third questions could be found suspicious,
Just noticed this, did you ever answer LaserGuy here?
Pretty sure I addressed this as part of my main D1 reads post.

Regarding the setup question, I was referring to RL days. Looking back, bringing it back up made it feel like active lurking and encouraging town to discuss things other than in-game content.

Just arrived at work and still haven't had a chance to look at everything since my previous post or reread anybody else. I'll try to find time before deadline to review somitomi's posts at the very least.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:14 am UTC

At this stage, no extension will be granted due to lack of interest

Votals:

Somitomi - (1) - LaserGuy
Jimbobmacdoodle - (1) - Sabrar
Sabrar - (1) - Jimbobmacdoodle


Day 2 ends in 18 hours 45 minutes
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:26 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Maybe, but there's a big difference between me openly acknowledging that it's a weak point and you forming a major part of your case around it.
Which I've also acknowledged.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Pretty sure I addressed this as part of my main D1 reads post.
Got it, don't see why the question would be any different in that case than the usual ordered read-list (as you also mention).

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Looking back, bringing it back up made it feel like active lurking and encouraging town to discuss things other than in-game content.
Still don't see the 'bringing back up' part, please point to specific posts.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:33 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Looking back, bringing it back up made it feel like active lurking and encouraging town to discuss things other than in-game content.
Still don't see the 'bringing back up' part, please point to specific posts.
I'm referring to this post, which was made well over a day and a half into the game (RL terms), after several people had already discussed the topic and then moved on to other things.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:40 am UTC

Oh, skipped it because that wasn't the main focus of that post. IIRC I was just a bit disappointed to have only received a few replies and wanted to engage more players.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:57 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:Scum might want to force a claim, but I don't think they'd would strike up a conversation with me, because a lurking townie benefits mafia as a possible mislynch target.
This is some quality wine coming from a newbie. At first glance I read it as townie as he lacks the experience of producing it from scum's pov but as jimbob mentioned he could have been coached during the night.
Otherwise the reads look okay and there are more tiny things that point to 'newbie town' rather than 'coached scum'. My only problem is that he doesn't really have any scum-reads as his suspicion on me came from a misunderstanding.

@somitomi: if you had a Vigilante-shot right now, who would you kill?

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:58 pm UTC

I will be a bit busy this evening, might have some time before bed though. If my insomnia runs its regular course then I will be awake for the last half hour of the day before deadline and able to phone-post if necessary. No promises, so please ask any questions now.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby heuristically_alone » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:16 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:1) I didn't notice at first why Q1 is bad to answer but I fully agreed with LaserGuy (even though I didn't say it in the thread).


Is there a reason you decided not to say it in the thread then?
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby heuristically_alone » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:21 pm UTC

VOTE:Jimbob
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:33 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:Is there a reason you decided not to say it in the thread then?
At that point I didn't feel like it would contribute that much to the discussion as it was already mentioned by several other players as well.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby somitomi » Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:54 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:This is some quality wine coming from a newbie. At first glance I read it as townie as he lacks the experience of producing it from scum's pov but as jimbob mentioned he could have been coached during the night.

Pardon my ignorance, but what does "wine" mean in this context?
Sabrar wrote:Otherwise the reads look okay and there are more tiny things that point to 'newbie town' rather than 'coached scum'. My only problem is that he doesn't really have any scum-reads as his suspicion on me came from a misunderstanding.

Yeah, that concerns me more and more as the deadline looms closer.
Sabrar wrote:@somitomi: if you had a Vigilante-shot right now, who would you kill?

Maybe Jimbob if I'm put on the spot like that, but that's mostly based on other people's reads list and not any particular idea of my own.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby somitomi » Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:06 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:Pardon my ignorance, but what does "wine" mean in this context?

Never mind, I managed to crack the puzzle :P
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