Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Game over! - Wing Condition

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:53 pm UTC

Working through scum pairings among {somitomi, dimockha, Sabrar, jimbob}

Possible scummates for Sabrar:

jimbob: Fairly antagonistic relationship between them all game. In a larger game, I could imagine a dedicated scum team trying an extended bus like this, but IMHO, it's too risky to attempt this. Very unlikely.
Jbby/dimochka: Attempts to prompt Jbby once, later mod-prods him. Questioning of dimochka seems natural, though Sabrar isn't really pushing too hard either. Possible.
somitomi: Greets somitomi early. Gives town lean in reads, prompts to vote. FoS him at the start of D2, but otherwise does not follow up on somitomi's weak defense of not voting. Doesn't think somitomi should be cleared if heury flips scum. Says somitomi active lurking D2. Explains his minimal interactions with somitomi here. About this:

Please point to specific examples from D1 where I 'coached' somitomi. D2 you don't need to bother because I would have spent hours during N1 to write him a full novel about the game and decision-trees to follow in every possible setup. But be my guest to show this as well if you want.

FWIW, Sabrar did not do this for me in my first game where we were scum together.
So from the whole thing I get the feeling like jimbob wants to distance himself from somitomi, so that after he is lynched (either today or tomorrow after my mislynch today) there would be less suspicion on him. However out of {dimochka, somitomi} I'm reading dimochka as more scummy at the moment so I would definitely prefer to lynch jimbob first.

Not sure whether to parse the underlined pronouns as jimbob or somitomi here. I'm guessing "he" is somitomi and "him" is jimbob, but I can see it working either way. On the whole, Sabrar's most likely scummate is somitomi, I think

Possible scummates for jimbob:

Sabrar: See above. Very unlikely
dimochka: jimbob did not interact with Jbby at all on D1 or attempt to prompt him in any way. Desire to focus on heury wagon D1 allows him to avoid looking at dimochka. Has not provided a read on dimochka or otherwise interacted with him at all. I tend to think that jimbob might have made more of an effort to interact with and/or read Jbby/dimochka had they been a scum pair together, but hard to say for certain. Definitely a concern. Very plausible.
somitomi: Prompts somitomi about only answering one of his questions. Reads somitomi is fairly scummy early, for justifiable reasons. Lumps somitomi in the "look at these people D2" group. Makes somitomi/Sabrar connections. This could definitely be a soft bus on somitomi, putting him on the scummy side, but not when somitomi is in any danger. Very plausible. On the whole, I think that it's a toss-up between dimochka and somitomi.

Possible scummates for dimochka:

Sabrar: Responds to Sabrar's questions, doesn't see anything scummy in his content. Interactions between them seem natural as noted. This reply doesn't really feel like it would be directed at a scummate. Plausible.
jimbob: No interactions whatsoever. "Feels good" about jimbob. Plausible.
somitomi: Reads somitomi as newbie town. I don't care for this:
Here's what I don't like. Mpolo, somitomi, and jimbob, in their own individual ways explain how dethstalker's posts are weird but not necessarily scummy.

since somitomi didn't really do this at all. No other comments or interactions. Plausible. My feeling is somitomi is somewhat more likely because of the weird reads, but Sabrar is definitely a possibility.

Possible scummates for somitomi::

jimbob: Responds to jimbob's Q2 and follow-up. Reads jimbob's content as "okay", yet later says jimbob would be his vig kill target if given the choice, without explanation for this. Plausible more on the interactions on jimbob's end. somitomi's most recent post sounds more like he's setting up to jump on the jimbob wagon though. Very unlikely if that's what he ends up doing.
Sabrar: Sheeps a couple of Sabrar's early reads (heury, jimbob), marks Sabrar pro-town. Agrees with Sabrar about DethStalker looking scummy. Reads Sabrar, jimbob suspicious for D1 wagons. Read's Sabrar as scummiest, but later says that he'd prefer to vig jimbob. Most likely scummate, IMHO.
dimochka: No interactions at all. Gives a null read on him. Plausible.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:55 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@somitomi: if you had a Vigilante-shot right now, who would you kill?

Maybe Jimbob if I'm put on the spot like that, but that's mostly based on other people's reads list and not any particular idea of my own.


You were reading Sabrar as scummy earlier. What changed?

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 6:53 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I've still yet to see a satisfying reason why my first and third questions could be found suspicious
Really? Plenty of people have said the answers to Q1 would only be useful to scum, and that was the one I objected to.

Ugh, I'm trying to read through D2 again but everyone seems so flip-floppy and uncertain. It's hard to get a nice read. Jimbob is my scummiest read for aforementioned reasons. I really doubt Sabrar would be his scum-mate due to all their arguing that seems like more than just bussing. LaserGuy I've been reading as fairly townie all game. So that would mean either somi or dim is the scum-mate.

I want to vote jimbob but I believe that would put us one away from hammer? So I will give it a few hours. I'll be able to get on here again before I go to bed (which will be in about 3 hours).
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:10 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I've still yet to see a satisfying reason why my first and third questions could be found suspicious
Really? Plenty of people have said the answers to Q1 would only be useful to scum, and that was the one I objected to.
Emphasis on the word satisfying. I disagree with the responses so far, but clearly I'm in the minority on this one. My personal opinion is that who scum kill is not the same as the towniest read, but it might well align. I hoped that I might get people talking a bit more about their reads, which were relatively threadbare at the time, but from a different angle to Q3.

Question for all people voting or considering voting for me: if for whatever reason you could be certain I wasn't scum, who would be your likeliest scum team?

Re-reading somitomi and dimochka now, but this will likely get interrupted, so don't expect it to be completed for a couple of hours.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:29 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:FWIW, Sabrar did not do this for me in my first game where we were scum together.
It was a closed setup, I had no idea what roles were out there and my previous attempts at guessing at such setups ended in disaster without fail. Plus you said you followed a previous game and read back some old ones so you had a basic understanding already while somitomi is a self-declared complete newbie.

LaserGuy wrote:Not sure whether to parse the underlined pronouns as jimbob or somitomi here. I'm guessing "he" is somitomi and "him" is jimbob, but I can see it working either way.
Apologies for not making that clear, it's actually the reverse (after jimbob is lynched somitomi would be 'cleared').

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Question for all people voting or considering voting for me: if for whatever reason you could be certain I wasn't scum, who would be your likeliest scum team?
dimochka and somitomi.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:34 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Question for all people voting or considering voting for me: if for whatever reason you could be certain I wasn't scum, who would be your likeliest scum team?
dimochka and somitomi.


Do you think dimochka and jimbob are scum together?

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:38 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Do you think dimochka and jimbob are scum together?
I'm leaning towards it.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:49 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Question for all people voting or considering voting for me: if for whatever reason you could be certain I wasn't scum, who would be your likeliest scum team?
dimochka and somitomi.
I was going to say the same before seeing Sabrar's post. I just haven't read Sabrar or LaserGuy as very scummy this whole game.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby somitomi » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:02 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
somitomi wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@somitomi: if you had a Vigilante-shot right now, who would you kill?

Maybe Jimbob if I'm put on the spot like that, but that's mostly based on other people's reads list and not any particular idea of my own.

You were reading Sabrar as scummy earlier. What changed?

One of the things I pointed out as suspicious here has been cleared up. That being said, I still consider him suspicious and haven't fully decided on my vote.
LaserGuy wrote:jimbob would be his vig kill target if given the choice, without explanation for this

There isn't much behind it beyond what I said there and then. Given this hypothetical vigilante-shot, I wouldn't want to make a decision based solely on my own impressions, because noone sticks out particularly to me. {Sabrar, Dimochka, Jimbob} are suspicious to me and in that group Jimbob has been mostly perceived as slightly scummy, while the others were more on the townie side IIRC.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Question for all people voting or considering voting for me: if for whatever reason you could be certain I wasn't scum, who would be your likeliest scum team?

Sabrar & Dimochka
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby dimochka » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:16 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
dimochka wrote:Here's what I don't like. Mpolo, somitomi, and jimbob, in their own individual ways explain how dethstalker's posts are weird but not necessarily scummy. But Laserguy immediately votes him, and the only other posts he mentions him is one where he suggests that he claim. While this aligns with his explained meta and putting pressure on a person, it still felt off.


DethStalker was already my scummiest read before this incident happened.

Correct, but for active lurking and not posting at all. Which means one post would easily change this in either direction. That's why I didn't consider this as strongly.

Sabrar wrote:@dimochka: if heury is scum who is his partner? If he's town which two players are scum?

So I first just spent a few minutes analyzing whether flicky could be lying. Maybe it was obvious to others, but wasn't to me, so here's the analysis:
Spoiler:
We have 6 possible setups:
1. Town Jailer, Town Backup, Scum RB
2. Town Cop
3. Town Tracker, Town Doctor
4. Town Jailer
5. Town Cop, Town Doctor, Scum RB
6. Town Tracker, Town Backup
a. If there is a backup in game, the backup claims and we know flicky is lying. So not setup #1 or #6
b. if there is a real cop in game, the cop counterclaims. So not setup #2 or #5
c. if there is a jailer, there is no cop. So jailer should claim, but only after he's reasonably certain that backup isn't in game. So not setup #4
d. if there is a tracker, there is no cop. same as above, just wait for backup first if he exists. so not setup #3.

Takeaway: flicky isn't lying, therefore heury is town. That makes the first part of the question moot.

Now the second part - we have 5 people left: Sabrar, Somitomi, Jimbob, Laserguy, me. I'm not going to analyze my own case because it'll be all wine, but let me look at the others. This is in order of most likely to least likely:

1. Somitomi/Jimbob - possible. Jimbob originally finds him scummy but lets it go for newbie reasons. Then Jimbob kinda ignores him d2 (unless I missed something). Strange.
2. Sabrar/Somitomi team - possible. There's some pushing and back/forth, but nothing too serious. I would've expected Sabrar to focus on more than just saying that Somi active lurks.
3. Somitomi/Laserguy - It feels like LG is coaching Somitomi several times throughout, and Somitomi leans back on that (ended up not answering Jimbob's question due to LG's answer). Then some more discussion D2. I can see how this would be a more-caught-up-and-agreed-on-strategy Somitomi.
4. Jimbob/Laserguy - Some back and forth about why LG finds Jimbob scummy. D2 Laserguy defends Jimbob (re: his post about dethstalker - I actually 100% disagree, and think if DS was scum, I would've put JB as townie). Enough content to be able to back up a town or scum flip for either. Possible but somewhere in the middle of the pack.
5. Sabrar/Laserguy - less likely. Those two are generating too much discussion among themselves to not have agreed on some of those things overnight.
6. Sabrar/Jimbob - unlikely. Too much agreeing / disagreeing / going back and forth. And obviously the interactions D2 didn't need to go as far as they did had they been teammates.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby dimochka » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:23 pm UTC

I'm going through Somitomi's posts in more detail now, since I think he is most likely to be scum. I also completely understand why my lack of content D1 (not my fault) and also low content D2 (my fault) make me look more scummy. If you have more questions, ask, and I'll have my own in a bit.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:46 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Takeaway: flicky isn't lying, therefore heury is town. That makes the first part of the question moot.
Would have been nice of you to make your analysis before flicky's reveal...

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Here.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:53 pm UTC

somitomi re-read:
Spoiler:
Responds to my question 2, preferring setup 2. Finds mpolo's arguments against No Lynching and RVS slightly odd. HA suspicious due to inconsistent answers and refusal to explain. Likes Sabrar and my attempts to get discussion going, but others find me suspicious. Can't put finger on why mpolo suspicious. flicky pro-town. DS and Jbby lurking. Skipped my first question due to others' concerns. Maybe HA and mpolo scum team. DS contradictory statement ringing alarm bells. Willing to accept HA joking. Flicky fine. Considering voting DS. Tries to explain to DS. Didn't have enough time to come back and vote. Finds mpolo dying strange. Thinks Sabrar or LaserGuy would have to be scum if HA scum, but finds both townie, so unlikely. Thinks if HA town, scum would have pushed earlier. Finds Sabrar, flicky and I slightly suspicious for that. Thinks both Sabrar and I could have been scum attempting to muddy the waters. Answers an LG question directed at HA. PR other than doctor should claim (post flicky claim). Had mpolo as scum team member due to gut feeling. Points out flicky might not die tonight. Uncertainty led to no vote. Didn't feel necessary to reiterate doubts about DS previously. Likes LG's focus on him, because it helps him understand the impressions his posts make and helps increase activity. Rereads thread and gives reads list. Sabrar slightly suspicious due to switch to DS. Likes LG's player-by-player focus. My content seems ok, but doesn't agree that people on DS wagon are necessarily suspicious. Notes that I promise follow-up posts but don't deliver. Finds dimochka odd that he posted reads on people who were dead. Has Sabrar as scummiest read. Would be surprised if Sabrar and I are scum together. Concerned by his own lack of scum reads. Would kill me put on the spot, mostly based on others' opinions. Hasn't fully decided on vote, has Sabrar still as slightly suspicious. If I'm not scum, has dimochka and Sabrar as scum team.
Nothing particularly stood out to me in somitomi's content, apart from the points raised by others regarding his tendency to me-too, with very little original content of his own, especially earlier on. I feel like he's putting more effort into D2 than D1. This could be due to coaching, but could just as easily be due to him growing in confidence. His suspicions on me seem entirely based on others' opinions, while he has started to back off suspicions on Sabrar. No clear scum tells overall, that couldn't be explained as newbie scum, but nothing that clearly indicates that he's town either. He could be scum buddies with either Sabrar or dimochka quite happily based on his interactions. Essentially my thoughts there line up with LaserGuy's recent thoughts.

---

I've been considering whether to do this or not, but having considered the options, I think it's best that I claim: I am a dove, i.e. the Doctor (I assume flicky can confirm that he is also a special kind of bird). Breadcrumb is in my very first post:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Don't have time to post anything of substance now, so just checking in. I'm likely to be very busy during D1, so expect less than usual from me.

Overall, I agree with everything that's been said so far. The only thing I'll state is that people should think carefully about any claiming they make. For example, don't even claim vanilla town at this point - scum will be trying to take out the town power role(s), so (truthfully) claiming vanilla town makes it more likely that they'll be successful. Oh, and one more thing:

Vote LaserGuy

Every game he's been in so far, he's been scum. Why should this be any different?
I'd have preferred not to claim, because unless we lynch the scum roleblocker today, both flicky and I are effectively neutralised (one dies tonight, the other gets roleblocked). However, on evaluating the situation, I think it's for the best. There are already two votes on me, with others suggesting they'll follow suit at some point, so chances are without my claim I'll get mislynched. However, assuming people believe my claim, which admittedly doesn't prove that I'm town - we could be in the solo-cop, no roleblocker setup - we now have three townies from 7, leaving the two scum in {LaserGuy, Sabrar, somitomi, and dimochka}. I really don't read LaserGuy as scum, so that means two from Sabrar, somitomi and dimochka are scum, and we can lynch them in some order over the next three days (we currently have a mislynch still available). Worst case is that I'm wrong about LaserGuy, in which case well done to him. In an ideal world, we lynch the roleblocker tonight, I protect flicky, and flicky gets a result to clear/implicate somebody, e.g. LaserGuy or me (presumably in this case scum will kill me tonight, so copping me may be suboptimal, or possibly heuristically_alone if they think they can persuade Town that I'm lying).

Reread of dimochka to follow, and then finally, if I have enough time, the completed LaserGuy read that has been half-complete since Thursday.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:27 pm UTC

dimochka reread (Jbby had no content):
Spoiler:
Posts an early reads list in his first significant post. LaserGuy townie, despite opportunistic vote on mpolo, due to solid responses and content. flicky nothing stands out. Limited analysis of mpolo's death unhelpful. Didn't like heuristically_alone D1 content or claim; felt like he was setting up D2 targets. Thought DS was townie. Explains why HA claim was bad. Thinks DS voters were opportunistic. somitomi content better on D2 than D1 (too much sheeping before), feels like newbie town. mpolo had similar concerns to dim about HA. Surprised he was the night target - probably didn't want him looking townie post DS flip. Unusure about Sabrar - nothing inherently scummy, dislikes making of decision that RVS is over. Feels pretty good about me, based on analysis post in response to questions, and matching DS thoughts. Scum teammate might have joined scum!HA on wagon. Explains further what he didn't like about the votes on DS. Explained what he didn't like about the abrupt stopping of RVS. Reviews flicky's claim and confirms him and HA as town. Reviews possible scum teams; has me and somitomi as most likely. Likeliest not involving me is Sabrar/somitomi. Starts rereading somitomi.
Nothing stands out immediately other than that he doesn't seem to share quite as strong a townie feel that most people have of LaserGuy. His thoughts on somitomi and DS match my own, although there might be some cross-influencing going on there. I like his analysis of the possible scum teams. Overall, I don't see anything that particularly ties him to either somitomi or Sabrar. He might be trying to distance himself from somitomi, but I'm not sure.

@dimochka - you didn't miss anything about my interactions with somitomi D2. I basically skimmed him very early on, and then left him due to time constraints - I instead used my time to focus on individual player-rereads and responding to Sabrar. Given I'd already looked at somitomi, he was my lowest priority.

Unvote
Vote somitomi

Mostly a self-defence switch in case nobody sees my claim before it's too late, or not enough people believe it. However, I could see somitomi being scum, so it's not all bad.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:02 pm UTC

LaserGuy reread:
Spoiler:
Post 1- welcome post, encourage newbies to get mentors.
Post 2 - Random vote on somitomi.
Post 3 - Switches vote to mpolo for discouraging discussion of No Lynch and RVS.
Post 4 - Why would town answer my first question?
Post 5 - In response to mpolo, why worried about forum meta in a newbie game?
Post 6 - discusses tracker setups. Asks somitomi what he thinks of heuristically_alone.
Post 7 - Asks DethStalker for explanation about not liking mpolo. Encourages lurkers to post.
Post 8 - Unvotes mpolo. Asks heuristically_alone to explain his suspicions on Sabrar (can understand them on me). Could chance lurker lynch. Prods somitomi for more content.
Post 9 - Responds to my question about his suspicions on me. Doesn't like my concern about Sabrar's setup question and my subsequent question on possible setup. Follows up on his earlier questions to me about this.
Post 10 - Reads list. Flicky townie (responding to questions, good reads list), heuristically_alone scummy (unhelpfulness, off reads), DethStalker scummy (active lurking), somitomi leaning town (quiet, but good reads), Jbby leaning scum (lurker), mpolo neutral (disliked early content, but reasonable explanations), Sabrar very townie (not sure if able to tell), me scum lean (previously discussed, but similar to previous town behaviour).
Post 11 - Votes DethStalker for bad post. Would also vote for heuristically_alone.
Post 12 - Suggests heuristically_alone and DethStalker should think about claiming.
Post 13 - mod question about jbby.
Post 14 - D2. Agrees with me about claims for power roles.
Post 15 - Wagon analysis. Finds me very likely town. Unsure about flicky. Thinks unlikely somitomi would have left vote unused if HA was partner, and that either Sabrar of Jbby must be scum. If HA town, high probability that somitomi scum, and scum two of {somitomi, Sabrar, Jbby/dimochka, flicky} from most to least likely.
Post 16 - Clarifies list order.
Post 17 - Dislikes flicky's statement about the DS wagon. Pushes him to explain why he said it only from a town perspective.
Post 18 - Continues to push flicky, asks him for a read on HA.
Post 19 - Calls me town for going out of my way to defend scummy-looking DS. Metagames a bit about length of night. Continues to prod flicky about his defence of HA. Asks HA for clarification about his points around mpolo.
Post 20 - Thinks flicky's claim was the wrong move. Accepts that he has to reevaluate, and a result on HA will provide info on interactions.
Post 21 - Reads list. Flicky and HA confirmed town. Me townie due to content. Sabrar content quite townie but content about DS pinging slightly. Calls out dimochka for not following up as promised and generous in read of somitomi. somitomi content a little odd - dislikes lack of vote, singling out of mpolo, and response to question not directed at him. Votes somitomi.
Post 22 - Thinks doctor should not claim. Scum tend to lurk more. Asks somitomi why he didn't explain his non-vote earlier.
Post 23 - Continues to ask somitomi questions.
Post 24 - Explains why what somitomi is doing is bad play for town, due to his lack of analysis.
Post 25 - Explains why he is putting pressure on individuals and points out bessie is his mentor.
Post 26 - Responds to Sabrar's and dimochka's questions. Asks somitomi for his scummiest read. Explains further what he didn't like about my Q1. Asks Sabrar for summary of case on me.
Post 27 - Thinks lynching one of me or Sabrar will give most information (we aren't both scum), but might make more sense to lynch somitomi. Reviews possible scum pairings and explains reasons. Most likely scummate for Sabrar is somitomi. Toss-up for me with dimochka or somitomi. Thinks somitomi or Sabrar possible with dimochka. Most likely scummate from somitomi angle is Sabrar.
Post 28 - Asks somitomi why his opinion on Sabrar changed.
Post 29 - Asks Sabrar if he thinks dimochka and I are scum together.
Nothing in my reread has made me change my opinion on LaserGuy being the towniest unconfirmed player. It is possible he is doing really well at scum this game, but I don't think so. I don't see scum!LaserGuy going out of his way to defend me so much, given that it would have been relatively straightforward for him to turn things the other way and join the nascent jimbob wagon. I also don't see LaserGuy being a partner with somitomi as he puts too much pressure on him on D2. I don't have an issue with his steady focus on certain players. I think it's a good tactic to try to get players to provide more content, as has happened here.

Town to scum list:
heuristically_alone
flicky
LaserGuy
dimochka
somitomi
Sabrar

I'll check the thread again in about half an hour, but am going to be in bed for the deadline.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:05 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:(I assume flicky can confirm that he is also a special kind of bird)
If you'd read the setup you would know the Cop is the albatross - all the role posts are in the OP. (And I've always been a special kind of bird. :P )

I don't see jimbob being scum now. It's possible for a scum knowing there's no Roleblocker to false-claim Doctor, as he's mentioned, but that breadcrumb clinches it for me unless he's been utterly lying about having not referenced the setup for the whole game (and I had been assuming it was true to some degree when reading him as scum before).

I am going to bed now so will be asleep when deadline rolls around so I have to make a choice on the vote now. I can't decide between somi and dim based on content, but I think somi's newbieness can be a factor towards apparently-scummy behaviour.

Vote: dimochka
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:09 pm UTC

heury, Sabrar, please unvote. We aren't lynching jimbob tonight.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby somitomi » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:10 pm UTC

Well, I'm boned...
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Breadcrumb is in my very first post:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Don't have time to post anything of substance now, so just checking in. I'm likely to be very busy during D1, so expect less than usual from me.

Overall, I agree with everything that's been said so far. The only thing I'll state is that people should think carefully about any claiming they make. For example, don't even claim vanilla town at this point - scum will be trying to take out the town power role(s), so (truthfully) claiming vanilla town makes it more likely that they'll be successful. Oh, and one more thing:

Vote LaserGuy

Every game he's been in so far, he's been scum. Why should this be any different?

Sorry again for the noob question, but what is a breadcrumb and what exactly do I need to look for in here?
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:25 pm UTC

He has spelled out the word "DOVE" with the first letter of each sentence, which is the name of his role (dove = doctor). This is a way of strengthening your claim, since you are, in effect, making your claim at some point earlier in the game, without specific knowledge of the setup that might have been revealed later.

Now, this doesn't make his claim ironclad. For example, if jimbob were the scum roleblocker, he'd know from the outset that there must either be a doctor or backup in the game, and could have made a breadcrumb for both so he could use either as a falseclaim once he gained enough information to specify the setup.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby somitomi » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:33 pm UTC

Oohh, okay.

That leaves me with Sabrar and Dimochka as suspicious, and I don't think I have much of a choice in the current situation.

Vote: Dimochka
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:44 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:(I assume flicky can confirm that he is also a special kind of bird)
If you'd read the setup you would know the Cop is the albatross - all the role posts are in the OP. (And I've always been a special kind of bird. :P )
I should really learn to read that sort of thing...

I'm not comfortable with the votes as things stand. If none of dimochka, heuristically_alone or Sabrar come back before deadline to vote for either somitomi or dimochka, or choose to not post because they're scum, I still get lynched.
heuristically_alone wrote:...
Sabrar wrote:...
dimochka wrote:...
Quoting to prompt notifications.

LaserGuy, will you be up at deadline to switch votes to dimochka if needed? I think somitomi and Sabrar are more likely scum, so I'd prefer one of them lynched, but dimochka getting lynched is better than me being so.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby dimochka » Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:08 pm UTC

vote somitomi

I already mentioned why, and I don't want jimbob lynched. The chances of JB lying, though higher than Flicky's, are pretty darn low.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Madge » Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:56 am UTC

Votals:

Somitomi - (3) - LaserGuy, Jimbob, Dimochka
Jimbobmacdoodle - (2) - Sabrar, Heuri
Dimochka - (2) - Flicky, Somitomi


Day 2 ends in 2 hours
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Madge » Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:05 am UTC

The clearing was full of twitterpation as the delicate little birds cried out at each other, trying to work out where the ibises in their midst were speaking from, trying in some way to atone for their collective murder of their brother.

Someone proposed dispatching one of the cloaked birds, but a great wise Albatross threw off his robe and defended him, stating that in all his years he had never seen a bird who hated ibises more.

Birds debated amongst themselves - perhaps this Albatross was an Ibis in disguise? - but ultimately they went upon more of the enrobed ones, throwing accusations left and right until one of them threw off his robe in disgust.

“I am a dove! You will all regret attacking me, the most pure of us!” He cried, and to all the world he did look like a dove. But those mutant disgusting Ibises with their bin-juice-granted shape-shifting powers were surely not above impersonating a creature so pure.

The arguments raged as sparrows and cloaked ones debated who the ibis was, which of them deserved to be ripped asunder.

Finally, it was settled. The agreement was tense, with many dissenters, but Somitomi was dragged kicking and screaming to the tree stump.

The crow landed on the stump, his blunt talons beside Somitomi's head.

“If it is the will of the council, so it shall be done.” He held out a wing, gesturing to the woodpecker. She took wing, landing on the stump beside the crow, and placed her sharp beak against Somitomi's feathered chest.

It was over in a second as the pneumatic force of her beak punctured Somitomi's heart, the dark blood staining her bright red crest and getting into her eyes. The orange light of the sunset made the lady woodpecker take on an almost demonic appearance.

The crow fluffed his feathers.

“Let us alight to our perches. We can see what the vulture has to say in the morning.”


Somitomi has been lynched. Role will be revealed in the morning.

It is now Night. If you have any night actions, please PM them to the moderator now. The mafia may now chat.

Night will last 2 days (48 hours)


Countdown timer for night
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Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Madge » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:59 am UTC

The frenzied crowd of birds woke up at first light, rushing to the stump where the woodpecker bird had done its frightful deed. The vulture, true to its nature, was picking the tiny bones clean.

“Please tell us that Somitomi was an ibis.” Came the crow’s mournful plea.

The vulture shook its featherless head. “No, I could not taste the taint of bin juice on their flesh. Just another poor sparrow.”


Somitomi was executed yesterday due to the group vote. They were a sparrow (vanilla town).

“Well, it’s not so bad.” Chirped a sparrow. “If we do have a dove amongst us, surely no ibis would be able to bring itself to do any awful misdeeds around a bird that is so pure…?”

The crow shook its head, and gestured upwards: there was the body of the wise old Albatross, an arrow sticking out of its chest. It was tied to a string and hung around a tree trunk.

Had the ibises learned how to use weapons? Would their perversion know no end?


Flicky was murdered in the night. He was an Albatross (town cop).

“Thank you for your wisdom. May you rest in peace.” Cooed the dove.

The crow ruffled its feathers. “We’re going to have no peace for quite some time. There are only five voting council members left; this final vote could spell our doom, or save us for another day. Let’s make sure it counts.”


Day 3 has started. You may now post. Night chat must stop.

With 5 players alive and 2 mafia remaining, we are in LYLO.


Day 3 ends in 6 days
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:03 am UTC

Jimbob, why didn't you try to save flicky? This greatly reduces your credibility with your claim.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:15 am UTC

Roleblock presumably. Scum is Sabrar/dimochka.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:42 am UTC

Nope, it's jimbob + dimochka. The breadcrumb was a very smart move but it's ultimately meaningless.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:11 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Nope, it's jimbob + dimochka. The breadcrumb was a very smart move but it's ultimately meaningless.


How is it meaningless? In order for this to have worked out in this exact scenario, it requires jimbob to have breadcrumbed doctor as mafia goon and happened to have ended up in the only setup where nobody could counterclaim. It also means that jimbob would have had to have read the setup quite closely, and then decided that his strategy would be to pretend not to have not read it. It's not impossible, but it's very low probability, especially compared to the alternative: jimbob is town doctor and breadcrumbed the role he was given. This is the most probable scenario based on the evidence we have available. It is generally in the interests of mafia to play up low probability events in exactly the manner you are doing here.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:11 am UTC

At work, so not constrained by phone.

Not going to apologize for missing the final hours of D2, as mentioned before deadline was 6am for me, woke up 3 minutes before that. Was checking the thread and typing out my reply (would have switched to dimochka not that it mattered) when I hit preview and saw Madge already declared day-end.

Had some time during the night to review what I missed, if somitomi would have turned up scum I wouldn't have known who his buddy was as there was some serious bussing from all sides. With him being town I think it is very telling that the scum-team latched onto the only possible wagon that could have saved jimbob. LaserGuy is Town by the way.

Breadcrumbing Dove is a very low risk/high reward play that had a 50% chance of being relevant, props to jimbob for coming up with it. Can provide the analysis if people are interested.

I'm okay with lynching either of them today.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:14 am UTC

EBWOP because of ninja: breadcrumb is very useful even if there is a Doctor in the game as it serves as 'evidence' that the scum false-claimer is the real one. Therefore it is relevant in half of the scenarios and not just a single one.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:38 am UTC

@heury, where do you stand on Sabrar/jimbob?

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:56 am UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:Jimbob, why didn't you try to save flicky? This greatly reduces your credibility with your claim.
To confirm: I did try to save flicky. Not much I can do about the roleblocker at all. They either killed me (and blocked flicky), in which case, they have to convince Town that LaserGuy is scum, or they kill flicky, in which case scum can push the false-claim doctor idea.

Sabrar is clearly scum, simply by the way he's speaking. I'm 99.9% certain now that LaserGuy isn't playing us all for fools, which is the only alternative. Funny how he conveniently would have switched to dimochka. If he knew that he was around only a few minutes before deadline (as he himself claimed he was), he should have placed his vote first, and then explained reasons later in a separate post if he had the time (side note, I'm not saying that he didn't choose to do what he said he did, but his priorities were all wrong, if that was the case). Also, funny how he neglects to mention that there were two wagons that could have saved me - dimochka and somitomi, not one that he mentioned. Yes, dimochka is scum from both our POVs, but then his argument should have been "that the scum-team latched onto the only possible wagon that could have saved both scum team" or similar.

@Sabrar - how about you give us your reasons for planning to switch now?

Side point: it's LYLO, so be certain about the situation before voting. Also, we have to all vote as Town, unless scum decide to bus, as otherwise scum controls the wagon. In a 3 v 2 situation, we have to lynch scum or we lose.

I'm going to be quite busy from now until the end of the weekend. Will try to check-in occasionally, but not going to have time to say much.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:13 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar is clearly scum, simply by the way he's speaking.
Please explain.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Funny how he conveniently would have switched to dimochka.
Given that a) I was already leaning towards him being your scum-buddy and b) my vote either way would not have mattered, there is nothing convenient about it and I wouldn't have needed to mention it if I had ulterior motives.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:If he knew that he was around only a few minutes before deadline (as he himself claimed he was), he should have placed his vote first, and then explained reasons later in a separate post if he had the time (side note, I'm not saying that he didn't choose to do what he said he did, but his priorities were all wrong, if that was the case).
a) I'm not going to vote without thinking about it, b) Madge was nice to provide votals in the last post and I saw that my vote wouldn't matter, c) I didn't see anyone else online (including Madge). There was absolutely no need to rush fmpov.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Also, funny how he neglects to mention that there were two wagons that could have saved me - dimochka and somitomi, not one that he mentioned. Yes, dimochka is scum from both our POVs, but then his argument should have been "that the scum-team latched onto the only possible wagon that could have saved both scum team" or similar.
You're nit-picking about semantics again, not to mention the fact that at the point where you voted somitomi there was no vote on dimochka yet. So yes, there was exactly 1 wagon available for you.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - how about you give us your reasons for planning to switch now?
Please specify what you're referring to here. I'm happy to lynch either you and will accept the consensus decision from heury and LaserGuy. You are free to lynch me immediately should I change my mind about this at any point.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:37 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - how about you give us your reasons for planning to switch now?
Please specify what you're referring to here. I'm happy to lynch either you and will accept the consensus decision from heury and LaserGuy. You are free to lynch me immediately should I change my mind about this at any point.
Sorry, that was very poorly phrased on my part: I meant, "you said you were planning on switching to voting dimochka. How about you explain why you were going to?".

Responses to rest of comments later when I'm not really busy (i.e. probably the end of the weekend). I'm happy to go with heury's and LG's decision. Given that unless somebody wants to make a case for scum!LaserGuy, the lynch will be controlled by the two of them, if in agreement, or scum otherwise, ultimately it's up to them to decide.

Just want to confirm one thing while I'm thinking about it, to make sure all bases are covered:

If a roleblocker targeted flicky, would he have got an explicit "No Result" instead of "Town" or "Scum"? In other words, were there exactly three possible answers that he could have received back on any given night?

I don't want to get caught out by flicky having misinterpreted his N1 result somehow (I doubt he did, but assumptions are not good).
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:47 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sorry, that was very poorly phrased on my part: I meant, "you said you were planning on switching to voting dimochka. How about you explain why you were going to?".
Because it became clear to me that dimochka is your buddy (otherwise you join his wagon here and don't risk him not showing up to vote given his history with lurking) and lynching you wasn't going to happen anyway so just in case LaserGuy or heury shows up dimochka was the only real alternative to prevent the mislynch.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Madge » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:48 am UTC

Town, Scum, and No Result are the three night action results that are possible for a cop to receive in the backup9 setup.

No votes. (We are in LYLO)

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:55 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Breadcrumbing Dove is a very low risk/high reward play that had a 50% chance of being relevant, props to jimbob for coming up with it. Can provide the analysis if people are interested.


Wrong. If Jimbob is false claiming then there can be no roleblocker. Which means that jimbob would have a 20% chance at breacrumbing a role that would be relevant (because he would have no idea which of the 5 possible town PRs was in the game). I do not believe that Sabrar!town would miss this fact.

The question is, how much of a chance is it that sabrar and jimbob are one heck of a scum dream team? I rather doubt it. It doesnt seem to be Sabrar's meta to bus like so. What do you think Laserguy?

In conclusion, I'm inclined to thinkthe scum team is Dimochka and Sabrar. If we are so sure that either sabrar or jimbob is scum, then Dimochka should be our lynch today.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:10 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:Wrong. If Jimbob is false claiming then there can be no roleblocker. Which means that jimbob would have a 20% chance at breacrumbing a role that would be relevant (because he would have no idea which of the 5 possible town PRs was in the game). I do not believe that Sabrar!town would miss this fact.

I did not miss that fact, however you fail to take into account that breadcrumbing Jailkeeper, Cop or Tracker is a far inferior choice as explained here as there will be always a Town PR who can counterclaim. That leaves Backup or Doc. False-claiming Doc is better because a) Town is probably more reluctant to lynch a claimed Doc than a Backup and b) Dove contains 3 less letters than Seagull (and could therefore be attributed to coincidence should someone notice the attempt).
So the 20% above comes from a wrong assumption, the true figure is 50% with some additional advantages pointing towards Doc.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:17 pm UTC

EBWOP: 50% comes from Doc being relevant in half of the setups, either when Town can't counterclaim it because they only have Cop (2nd column) or when Town has Doc but scum wants to have the chance to counterclaim it (2nd row + 3rd column).


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