X-Men Mafia: Resolution

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Sabrar
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 12:36 pm UTC

Please ask the mod, he should reply to you.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 1:30 pm UTC

Actually this may be faster.

Suppose Cyclops uses his Optic Blast but gets Siphon-ed by Rogue. Can Cyclops use the ability during a later night?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:35 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:I received no result last night. Bessie's determination to debunk Sabrar's plan looks like scum desperate to stop a plan that gaurantees the town win.
:roll:

Results of Sabrar’s fool-proof plan:

I publically announced I would be blocking moody, but moody was told to use his one-shot power anyway (TBD if he can attempt it again).

Heury was blocked and has no night results, but he has a medkit.

adnapemit has a town cop result on me which you’re going to ignore anyway (and please note that I was the one who reminded everyone we may have a godfather).

Sabrar wrote:Yes please, bessie's blocking moody, we need you to block heury so we can clear him.

So I guess now Heury is somehow cleared out of all this? [/sarcasm]

You should have had adnapemit cop Heury. If she got a town result on him I wonder if you would give it more credibility?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:43 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Results of Sabrar’s fool-proof plan:
No NK.

bessie wrote:So I guess now Heury is somehow cleared out of all this?
Nope, heury would have been cleared if we had an NK.

bessie wrote:You should have had adnapemit cop Heury. If she got a town result on him I wonder if you would give it more credibility?
No, since you so kindly reminded us of the possibility of a GF I'm not giving it much weight anymore.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:45 pm UTC

@bessie: if I come up with a truly fool-proof plan that guarantees Town's win but relies on heury being really Wolverine and me being Town will you accept that or will you look for more loopholes?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:54 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:You should have had adnapemit cop Heury. If she got a town result on him I wonder if you would give it more credibility?
No, since you so kindly reminded us of the possibility of a GF I'm not giving it much weight anymore.
Why am I not surprised.

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: if I come up with a truly fool-proof plan that guarantees Town's win but relies on heury being really Wolverine and me being Town will you accept that or will you look for more loopholes?
So are you implying that you want me to blindly accept any plan you propose without looking for flaws? How is that beneficial? Wouldn’t you rather know possible flaws in advance?

I doubt the fool-proofness of any plan you propose because all of your reads and every one of your fool-proof plans centers around an unshakeable town read of Heury and is designed to clear him, and you are unwilling to even consider the possibility that he is scum.

I don’t know he’s scum. Maybe you are correct and he is town. But at least I’m willing to consider both possibilities. You’re not.

So how about this plan: What if I kill you tonight Sabrar? Maybe knowing that you only have one more day to play will force you to actually do some scumhunting today instead of just looking for ways to mechanically clear Heury.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 3:00 pm UTC

bessie wrote:So are you implying that you want me to blindly accept any plan you propose without looking for flaws?
That is so not what I was asking.
I'll try again: can you accept the following 2 assumptions:
- I am Town
- heury is Wolverine

If you can then there is a 100% plan (assuming moody can still use Optic Blast) for us to win.

bessie wrote:I doubt the fool-proofness of any plan you propose because all of your reads and every one of your fool-proof plans centers around an unshakeable town read of Heury and is designed to clear him, and you are unwilling to even consider the possibility that he is scum.
Completely untrue. As I said before my current plan involves shooting him tonight.

Ignoring the rest of your content because it stems from a misunderstanding (which at this point I'm inclined to think is intentional).

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 3:41 pm UTC

@bessie: please reread this. BoomFrog is telling us that he will use his power on his biggest scum-read. Here, here, here and here you can see that he is liking the lynch. After that last post he had at least 6 minutes to change his night-target. Can you imagine a scenario where he would target you when you just ensured LaserGuy's lynch?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby mpolo » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:43 pm UTC

By the time the lynch came around, it was pretty clear that Somotomi was what it said on the label (survivor). I've gone back and forth on heury. We should have near enough information to sew this up, though. I hope to have more time tomorrow. Certainly on Sunday I will have time.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby dimochka » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:54 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Actually this may be faster.

Suppose Cyclops uses his Optic Blast but gets Siphon-ed by Rogue. Can Cyclops use the ability during a later night?

In this hypothetical situation, Rogue's action happens before Cyclops, essentially resulting in Cyclops never having used an action, as he was unconscious. So it would not be used up.

Edit: It looks like Rogue's PM wasn't as clear as I had planned for it to be. So to clarify - Siphon sucks the power of the target (and renders it unconscious as a result, just like Leech), AND steals the power. If this has caused any confusion or would have resulted in different night actions, I apologize. By stating the "in addition to sucking the powers" part for Siphon, I meant to explain that it's like a more concentrated version of Leech.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:47 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Siphon sucks the power of the target (and renders it unconscious as a result, just like Leech), AND steals the power.
This changes everything. I would have never allowed bessie to use Siphon on moody if this was known beforehand. The role-pm says the power is 'duplicated' instead of 'stolen'.

Obviously bessie will claim that she didn't know this, however I'm pretty sure she would have asked dimochka about it by now.

@dimochka: how can your clarification be reconciled with your original answer? You state that Cyclops's power would not be used up, implying that he would be able to use it a later time.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:03 pm UTC

@moody: please confirm that you cannot shoot anymore.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:15 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@heury: surely you must have asked LaserGuy about Cyclops. What did he reveal and why haven't you mentioned this so far?


Laserguy refused to give me any info on cyclops. We really didn't talk much d1 because he said he wanted to trust me first.

I received a medkit.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby moody7277 » Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:54 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@moody: please confirm that you cannot shoot anymore.


At the time dim posted, he was actually giving me a thumbs-up. Nothing added since in reference to his additional notes.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:59 pm UTC

Assuming moody is unable to use Optic Blast anymore then this confirms bessie as Rogue, plus Siphon is gone so all roleblocks have same priority.

mpolo is mechanically confirmed Town. Assume I am as well.

D3: No Lynch

N3:
- bessie uses stolen Optic Blast to kill heury,
- adnapemit blocks moody,
- heury uses medkit to protect me,
- I protect mpolo,
- mpolo gives roleblock to me

Analysis:
- if heury is scum we win
- if either bessie or moody is scum then there can be only 1 death during the night
- therefore if 2 NK-s happened then adnapemit is scum, lynch her
- if the single death is not heury then moody is cleared, we win by lynching adnapemit and bessie

Therefore we can assume D4 starts with 5 players (current six minus heury)

D4: lynch moody

N4:
- bessie blocks adnapemit
- adnapemit blocks bessie

No NK is possible.

D5: lynch bessie

N5:
- I block adnapemit with mpolo's item

No NK is possible.

D6: lynch adnapemit

Guaranteed town-win.

Thoughts welcome.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:01 pm UTC

EBWOP: ninja'd hard, didn't want to just discard it.

@bessie: dimochka claims that you would have stolen Optic Blast. moody claims that he has it available. Any comments?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:09 pm UTC

Upon reflection the above plan also works if moody still has Optic Blast, though in that case my original plan allowed the game to end latest D4.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby dimochka » Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:33 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@dimochka: how can your clarification be reconciled with your original answer? You state that Cyclops's power would not be used up, implying that he would be able to use it a later time.

Siphon doesn't take the power away, it just makes a copy of it. Or did I misunderstand the question?
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:39 pm UTC

Then I completely misunderstood you. You said Siphon 'steals' the power and the original role-pm was perhaps confusing. I understood the original wording exactly as you just described it so when you said it was confusing I thought I got it wrong.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:46 pm UTC

So we can go for either the above plan or my original one with mass carnage:

D3: lynch adnapemit

N3:
- moody kills heury
- bessie kills moody
- doesn't really matter what the rest of us do except that we should not protect either heury or moody

Analysis:
- if adnapemit is scum we win
- if heury is scum he cannot avoid getting killed, we win (cannot target himself with medkit)
- if moody is scum he cannot avoid getting killed, we win
- if bessie is scum we lynch her D4 because no matter what she does 2 townies will remain alive and the only way that D4 happens is if she's scum.

@bessie: please ignore my previous question, it was based on a misunderstanding on my part.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Aug 04, 2017 11:05 pm UTC

Plan sounds flawless to me.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Sat Aug 05, 2017 12:19 am UTC

I have a better plan.
If I am following right. We lynch heury or Sabrar and bessie kills the other.
If we are still playing we lynch moody.
Current preference is lynch Sabrar.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Sat Aug 05, 2017 12:23 am UTC

Preference of Sabrar because Sabrar keeps leaving himself out of plans.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 2:40 am UTC

adnapemit wrote:Preference of Sabrar because Sabrar keeps leaving himself out of plans.

Just like you left yourself out of yours. However in contrast with you I got targeted with a sniff and a roleblock N1 so it would have taken an unlikely series of events for me being able to kill BoomFrog.
Please also note how heury agrees to the plan even though it means he's getting killed.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 2:42 am UTC

Hi bessie! It's quarter to five here, want to lighten up my morning before I'll try going back to sleep?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 05, 2017 2:54 am UTC

I know that you told me to ignore this post, but I’m going to address it anyway because thinking about it led me to elsewhere.
Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:Siphon sucks the power of the target (and renders it unconscious as a result, just like Leech), AND steals the power.
This changes everything. I would have never allowed bessie to use Siphon on moody if this was known beforehand. The role-pm says the power is 'duplicated' instead of 'stolen'.

Obviously bessie will claim that she didn't know this, however I'm pretty sure she would have asked dimochka about it by now.

@dimochka: how can your clarification be reconciled with your original answer? You state that Cyclops's power would not be used up, implying that he would be able to use it a later time.

First of all, you’re misinterpreting dimochka’s (somewhat confusing) reply (since acknowledged). I don’t steal a power, I copy it. I did ask dimochka right after I got my role pm and you knew I would. And I already claimed I knew how my power worked, and I told you to ask dimochka to verify it here.
bessie wrote:I don't steal a power. I copy it. Ask dimochka.

Secondly, WTF do you mean you would have “allowed” me to siphon moody? You didn’t “allow” anything. Siphon had a lower priority than any powers in play. The only way you could have stopped me was to lynch me, and I offered not to stand in the way of that lynch if you wanted to try. Even if you are really Professor X, Magneto, or Storm you couldn’t stop me.

And this actually leads me here:
Sabrar wrote:@bessie: please reread this. BoomFrog is telling us that he will use his power on his biggest scum-read. Here, here, here and here you can see that he is liking the lynch. After that last post he had at least 6 minutes to change his night-target. Can you imagine a scenario where he would target you when you just ensured LaserGuy's lynch?

I can imagine a lot. And you know I thought of this. Yes, I know BoomFrog was leaving a breadcrumb. Also supported by this. But you probably also know I suck at finding breadcrumbs. I found a breadcrumb BoomFrog left in a previous game, but only after I was dead and I knew what I was looking for. I know the information is in his content somewhere but I’m not smart enough to see it. So are you suggesting BoomFrog targeted me? Maybe, it would mean that I jailed myself, so what? Or do you want to suggest that you!ProfessorX could have redirected Heury to Gopher of Pern (who was unlikely to submit a night action), and also you could have killed BoomFrog?

So why Sabrar do you keep dropping hints that you want me to read you as Professor X? What’s the point? If you’re town you shouldn’t be lying. If your’re scum do you want to be lynched?

These are really raw thoughts. Maybe I'm wrong. I would normally think about something for a while before i commit to posting it. I’ve been working on this for an hour and can easily throw another hour at it, but I see your request, and I aim to please. :mrgreen:

More in a little while.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:19 am UTC

bessie wrote:So why Sabrar do you keep dropping hints that you want me to read you as Professor X? What’s the point? If you’re town you shouldn’t be lying. If your’re scum do you want to be lynched?

I'll go really slow (helped out by being on phone).
I'm not lying. I don't want you to read me as Professor X. The point is to prove to you that I'm Town.

- if BoomFrog did not target you, then the only way for your Leech to not affect me is if I'm Iceman and commuted. However that's a once-per-game action so I couldn't have killed BoomFrog. If your Leech affected me then I also couldn't have killed him. Either way I'm mechanically clear.
- even if BoomFrog did target you I was sniffed by heury and he didn't see me interact with anyone. I can't be Nightcrawler so the only way that could have happened is if I'm Professor X and redirected him. Or on second thought I could theoretically be Magneto and roleblocked him. Either way this requires me to
a) false-claim a role before somitomi claimed, giving me a guaranteed 25% chance of being counterclaimed,
b) offer an explanation that resolves the conflict between your result and heury's instead of pushing to lynch the both of you.

Also since you might have forgotten it I was the one who convinced BoomFrog to switch from a confirmed town-lynch to a guaranteed scum-lynch at a point where I really shouldn't have done so as scum.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:35 am UTC

adnapemit wrote:I have a better plan.
If I am following right. We lynch heury or Sabrar and bessie kills the other.
If we are still playing we lynch moody.
Current preference is lynch Sabrar.

Are you convinced that bessie is Town? Why?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:40 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I'll go really slow (helped out by being on phone).
I really should vote for you just because of that remark. :|

I already worked out that you’re town.

However, you can’t be certain Heury was telling the truth about sniffing you.

I don’t have time to think this through right now. It’s 8:40 pm in California, and my husband is barking and the puppy is nagging that they want me to cook dinner, I won’t be able to get back this for at least an hour.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:45 am UTC

If you're convinced that I'm town then we can go for the slow plan and no lynch, blocking all possible NK's every turn. Please review.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:51 am UTC

bessie wrote:I really should vote for you just because of that remark.
I apologize, you know I get frustrated if people don't seem to follow my logic.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:49 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Are you convinced that bessie is Town? Why?

I'm not.
I said better plan. Not perfect.(it was also quite OMGUS...waking up to find the last post was a vote for yourself isn't fun) Also probably not something we should do.
Suddenly making me the first lynch candidate just seemed way over the top for your revised plan when there is one scum left and I was pretty far from lynch candidate.
heury was also way to quick to jump on that plan. I'm pretty sure there was logical reasons why Sabrar could be town but some of his posts make me want to lynch him.
At this point I really need to reread and analyse everything still.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby heuristically_alone » Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:07 am UTC

bessie wrote:my husband is barking and the puppy is nagging


This is phenominal writing.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:35 am UTC

adnapemit wrote:I'm pretty sure there was logical reasons why Sabrar could be town but some of his posts make me want to lynch him.

Just rephrasing this. I want to lynch Sabrar just because. But I do not think it is actually something that should be done.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:36 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I apologize, you know I get frustrated if people don't seem to follow my logic.
(no apology necessary, I know)

What makes you think you’re the only one that gets frustrated, and the only one that can be logical? Not everyone has the same evaluation as you. Look at this from someone else's point of view (like for example, a quality engineer? :) ).

Statement of requirement
dimochka wrote:Town Win Condition:
You are town and win when all threats to town are eliminated.


Statement of nonconformance
Should be: Sabrar is trying to directly eliminate threats to town (scumhunt).
Is: Sabrar is not trying to eliminate threats to town, but is proposing plans which anticipate eliminating threats indirectly instead of scumhunting.

Objective evidence
1. Sabrar proposes a plan which requires cooperation of unknown scum, and could possibly fail. (Example: Scum!bessie withholds kill and blocks mpolo, casting suspicion on adnapemit.)
2. Sabrar proposes a second plan which also requires cooperation of unknown scum, and could possibly fail. (Example: Scum!bessie withholds kill and blocks moody, casting suspicion on adnapemit.)

Direct cause
Sabrar has a town read made early in the game that is influencing his assessment.

Root cause
Sabrar is unable to accept that his early read might be incorrect, and is unwilling to directly scum hunt and eliminate this person, and is only willing to eliminate him indirectly as part of a larger plan.

Root cause methodology: 5-Why

Corrective action
Present Sabrar with a compelling reason to scum hunt. If he is going to be killed tonight, he will have more incentive to lynch scum today and end the game.

Preventive action: TBD

Ninja'd. Thanks Heury.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:39 am UTC

@bessie: nice work. Unfortunately won't get to a computer until much later in the day, so don't stay up waiting for my reply.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:50 am UTC

bessie wrote:2. Sabrar proposes a second plan which also requires cooperation of unknown scum, and could possibly fail. (Example: Scum!bessie withholds kill and blocks moody, casting suspicion on adnapemit.)

Actually this is just silly. The second plan starts with us lynching adnapemit so I don't see how scum!you withholding the kill could cast suspicion on her.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:51 am UTC

That plan is fool-proof if heury is Wolverine. Maybe try arguing against that.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:55 am UTC

For the first plan: if heury does not die then either adnapemit blocked you or you chose not to kill heury. Either way scum is reduced to 2 players, guaranteed win.

You're doing a really bad job finding flaws in my plan, I thought you had better arguments.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby mpolo » Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:07 am UTC

Day 3 notes:

Spoiler:
bessie: Pressure on Sabrar - why no vote. scum!Heury could have switched and tied it. Siphoned Cyclops. Sabrar must be Iceman, and confirmed town. Sabrar is being illogical. Sabrar's foolproof plan was not foolproof. Possibility of godfather. Obviously going to look for flaws in the plan. Sabrar is unwilling to consider possibility that heury is scum. Problems with Sabrar's assumptions. Why is Sabrar still hinting he might be Professor X? Heury might have lied about sniffing. Explains a fault in Sabrar's plan -- depends on the cooperation of scum.

Sabrar: saw no possibility of shenanigans. Protected heury. If Heury had caused a NL, we would have lynched him. I am not Professor X. Asks confirmation from moody. Has a new plan that bessie will hate. New plan has heury being shot. There is a small chance bessie is scum. Questions for heury. There was no NK due to the great plan. If there had been a NK, heury would have been cleared. Cop has little weight due to GF. Will bessie accept a plan? Plan assumes Sabrar is town, heury is Wolverine and moody can use Optic Blast. BoomFrog planned to use his power on the biggest scum-read. Unlikely that he would have targeted Bessie. Confusion on moody's power. Plan for D3-D4 (No Lynch today, kill heury in the night), if heury is not dead, lynch bessie and adnapemit; if not, lynch moody then bessie. Clarification on Cyclops. New plan. Because of sniff and roleblock, unlikely he could have killed BoomFrog. Explains how mechanics clear him. Also convinced BoomFrog to vote for LaserGuy. How does adnapemit feel about bessie? Willing to go back to "slow plan"

heury: no result last night. Bessie is looking like scum. LaserGuy provided no info on Cyclops. Accepts plan and votes adnapemit.

adnapemit: Town on bessie. Block on heury. Alternative plan that kills Sabrar. Needs to re-read. "Wants" to lynch Sabrar, but knows it's a bad idea.

moody: Tried to shoot adnapemit, does not know if he has another shot.


O.K. I'm getting a headache from this. What I think I know:

Certainly town:
mpolo
Sabrar

Probably town because of the "Peaceful Whale" effect, but not to be ruled out completely:
adnapemit

Copped as town, reads as town, could be godfather:
bessie

Know a lot less (with certainty) about them:
moody, heuristically_alone

If moody is scum, then he only has one kill, right? So he is essentially de-powered as scum, still has a vig-shot if town?

Bessie has a vig-shot (or if scum, has just her normal kill or her other power).

heury has a one-shot doctor that could be used in addition to either his Wolverine powers or his scumkill.

adnapemit presumably used the one-shot that I sent, but could be faking a result fairly easily.

Do I have all the pertinent assumptions about the situation?
Image <-- Evil experiment


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