Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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moody7277
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby moody7277 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:13 pm UTC

Partial reads:

PW: seems very twitchy. Also playing off BoomFrog a bit with "meowing". Has other content besides that, so I'm probably not going to vote him today.

BoomFrog: woofing up a storm. no special role reason he should be doing this (c.f. silly!Sabrar from SS2017), so I'm reading this as active lurking in 20-foot high flaming letters. Unless this corrects real soon, he looks very lynchable.

LaserGuy: despite his opening with a pro-PR-claim plan with concurrent no lynch vote, his subsequent posting has been more townie looking. non-votable

Hari: math post is familiar stuff. slight town lean.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:06 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Actually, the more I think about that post, the less I like it.

Vote: cemper
Any concrete reason why? Please share your thought-process.


Their questioning doesn't feel genuine to me. Claiming to have been reading previous games to get a sense of new player's styles but apparently not paying attention to who was playing those games is weird. His subsequent question of you is asking if you know anyone in the game, something that is clearly obvious from the two posts that you had made at the time... this does not look like a player that is engaged in actually trying to figure people out.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:02 pm UTC

It was a busy day at work, so sorry for not posting anything during the day.

Unvote

Quick thoughts on everybody's content following a reread to help me get my head a bit more in the game

bessie: only one fairly succinct post from her, but there was less than a page of content, so it's hardly worth worrying about. Shows her usual mix of welcoming and mild aggression to laziness, so nothing to be concerned about so far.

BoomFrog: being rather weird with the woofs, no doubt trying to generate reactions. From what I can tell, he agrees with Vicarin and Sabrar that LG's plan doesn't benefit town much, but appears to be placing Sabrar and cemper as scummy while Vicarin and LG are townie (either that or he's claiming scum buddies with the latter two with the former being town...). While he quotes posts he (presumably) dislikes from Sabrar and cemper, I don't see how they indicate scumminess. With cemper he later clarifies. I could see BoomFrog acting this weirdly as either scum or town - he has prior art.

cemper: I find his confusion between setup spec and strategy interesting. I don't think his support for LaserGuy's scheme is all that bad - why caveat it in the opposite way with a question he asked the mods? I can't blame him for getting annoyed at BoomFrog for his weird behaviour.

@bessie/BoomFrog - did scum!cemper ever show indication of gambits involving asking mods fake questions in order to look better with a future plan?

@cemper - you picked bessie as confirmed town and BoomFrog as confirmed scum in your opening post. Is there a particular reason you picked them that way around?

flicky: showing some initial healthy caution with BoomFrog's behaviour and claiming, and awareness with what's going on. There isn't all that much substance in his posts otherwise yet, but I like what little I see.

Hari Seldon: I'm a little bit suspicious of his suggestion for us to agree who a watcher and other PRs should target. The reason for this is that it means that scum can safely kill somebody else entirely, without fear of being seen. His points post is similar in style to his first game here, although more reduced.

LaserGuy: I don't have any issue with him proposing the plan as such, but I think it's a bad idea. With three scum, I could see them taking a risk and targeting the cop. If the watcher is real, then they'll see both scum and doctor targeting the cop, and won't be able to tell the two apart (plus we might lose the cop, with no information gain). I also don't see how No Lynch is the correct thing to do under any circumstance D1. I don't see any real benefit in individual PRs knowing who other PRs might be, if it involves people publicly claiming, since scum can't safely counter-claim any of them anyway. The nature of the night results should provide equivalent information, as was already pointed out by Vicarin anyway. Voting Sabrar without up front justification looks bad, and his reasoning is really stretched for such a setup. His later town reads are equally as unexplained. His vote for cemper is misrepresenting what cemper said - he claims that cemper suggested that he was not paying any attention to who was in other games that he had read, when I do not get that feeling at all from cemper's questions. Leaning scum on LaserGuy overall.

moody: Nothing much to comment on here. I'm liking his brief reads because unlike some of his past reads lists he actually explains his conclusions without just summarising that players content.

Peaceful Whale: Much of his behaviour so far is typical PW (e.g. stream of consciousness thoughts, not well thought through, but correcting himself as he spots mistakes etc). He's not paying too much attention in depth, but is mostly just responding things as he comes across them. There are one or two noticeable mistakes (e.g. where is Vicarin, who has been more active than my one previous post), which I think he'd be less likely to make as scum.

Sabrar: His response to LaserGuy's suggested plan is reasonable, not overreacting to it as a clearly scummy plan or anything, whilst also not blindly following it, but rather studying it out, as I've seen he is wont to do. I disagree that my question was completely useless - lots of people were speculating about things like millers, scum PRs and so on, and I figured that my question would be a good way to make sure we weren't making any false assumptions about the setup. There's actually not all that much content so far from Sabrar (lots of brief posts, but that's about it). I've seen him do this before in newbie games though, so as not to do all the work, but Crossover also springs to mind where he was scum. I'll have to take a look at some point to see what his alignment was in the other newbie games.

somitomi: I like his opening post, there's clearly thought going into LG's plans, making one or two good observations (bessie roleplays, but also makes useful observations, unlike BoomFrog apparently), and questions (e.g. why did I vote for Vicarin - for reference, this was a random vote).

Vicarin: His thoughts on LaserGuy's plans and when the PRs should claim seem to be fairly similar to my own, though he does come to some incorrect conclusions (e.g. if a tracker sees A visiting B, but B does not die, it does not confirm that A is town - they could have been targeted by a doctor for instance). I don't like how he's only focused on this discussion though.

Loose groupings (none of these are strong reads, since it's still early days). Townie - BoomFrog, flicky, moody, Peaceful Whale, somitomi. Scummy - LaserGuy, Hari Seldon. Undecided - bessie, cemper, Vicarin, Sabrar.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:15 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:LaserGuy: I also don't see how No Lynch is the correct thing to do under any circumstance D1.


My understanding is that No Lynch is produces a better win rate for Town than a lynch when there is an even number of players. Essentially, it gives an extra day for investigative roles to do their work without costing Town a mislynch and increases the probability that subsequent lynches will hit mafia. Similar effect to doing a No Lynch at MYLO.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:19 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:BoomFrog: being rather weird with the woofs, no doubt trying to generate reactions. From what I can tell, he agrees with Vicarin and Sabrar that LG's plan doesn't benefit town much, but appears to be placing Sabrar and cemper as scummy while Vicarin and LG are townie
...
While he quotes posts he (presumably) dislikes from Sabrar and cemper, I don't see how they indicate scumminess. With cemper he later clarifies. I could see BoomFrog acting this weirdly as either scum or town - he has prior art.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Peaceful Whale » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:25 pm UTC

@Vicarin, do you have any previous mafia experience?
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:34 pm UTC

I see BoomFrog's woofs as deliberately unhelpful. There is no good reason for town to play that way.

moody7277 wrote:Hari: math post is familiar stuff.
What games have you shared with Hari? I don't recognise them.
Peaceful Whale wrote:@Vicarin, do you have any previous mafia experience?
Already answered here:
Vicarin wrote:
bessie wrote:Vicarin, welcome to the mafia subforum! Do you have any experience playing mafia? Which games have you read?


I've played IRC Mafia a bit a long time ago, but not really on forums, and I've been reading an embarrassingly large number of the games on here because I found them interesting. Mainly the ones that didn't have a final title that spoilt the ending.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:12 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:BoomFrog: being rather weird with the woofs, no doubt trying to generate reactions. From what I can tell, he agrees with Vicarin and Sabrar that LG's plan doesn't benefit town much, but appears to be placing Sabrar and cemper as scummy while Vicarin and LG are townie (either that or he's claiming scum buddies with the latter two with the former being town...). While he quotes posts he (presumably) dislikes from Sabrar and cemper, I don't see how they indicate scumminess. With cemper he later clarifies. I could see BoomFrog acting this weirdly as either scum or town - he has prior art.


Why is BoomFrog in your Townie group rather than null? There's nothing in your reasoning here to suggest that you're townreading him.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby cemper93 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:17 pm UTC

Some analysis coming in. I know there are some open questions to me, which I'll try and answer in a separate post.

Analysis is in player list order.

cemper93
So town he's city.

flicky1991
Flicky has expressed concerns over BoomFrog and PeacefulWhale lurking, but shown no inclination to really follow through on either of them. He has also asked HariSeldon about their numbers post. While the topics raised were interesting, flicky seemed intent on not being too critical, and has never voted seriously or really followed through on something he posted. Only fishing for somebody to pick up the criticism while not wanting to look like a bandwagon starter, maybe? Being non-commital and lacking in content does not look very townie to me. Leaning scum.

Peaceful Whale
They have made a lot of short posts, mostly jokes and useless posts of the "oh, I'll have to reread this" and "more on that later" varieties. There was an analysis post, but it seemed lacking to me: for example, the only comment on jimbob is that he was good scum in another game and hence shouldn't be trusted. Peaceful Whale claims to be new, which other players around here might be able to judge better than me. I would think them the more scummy the more experienced they are, mostly because I remember that the first game that I have played on xkcdmafia, I got by as scum by pretending to suck more at mafia than I actually did. And Peaceful Whale's content sure sucks pretty hard.

somitomi
He's made some pretty good analysis in his very first post in this game. The content has been solid ever since. Town.

LaserGuy
They have suggested various different strategies for this game, which I consider to be good. They've also attacked me as well as Sabrar, both times by putting down a vote that they only explained later when pressed about it, which I consider much less good. However, the explanations were at least acceptable both times, plus they put their money where their mouth was and weren't shy about voicing opinions. Therefore, I still lean town.

Hari Seldon
They've only made on serious post involving scoring people. I consider that weird, but judging from what others have said, it's within Hari's meta. I would like to see more content.

Vicarin
They've posted a moderate amount of content, most of it strategizing and plain logic. That's not so bad on D1, but also not so good. I would be angrier at this if they weren't a new player. Neutral for now.

Sabrar
Sabrar is an experienced player that I don't know, which of course fazes me somewhat. (I'm trying to do my reading of recent games, but it takes time.) He interacted with LaserGuy a lot. LaserGuy suggested to Sabrar he ask more questions, at which Sabrar snapped back aggressively. Of course, LaserGuy's attack wasn't played very nicely (putting down a serious vote, but giving no explanation), but I'm not sure it warrants that kind of reaction. Getting overly defensive when being attacked slightly is not a town move. I read scum.

Jimbobmacdoodle
Here's another player I don't know well. He's suggested to me to read Secret Santa 2017, which I suppose I'll do. I like his long analysis post, it seemed a genuine effort. I think we'll get along. Town.

BoomFrog
Posting nothing but "woof" adds confusion, doesn't help town in any way and is a safe position for scum to hide in. If BoomFrog is not scum, I don't know what he's trying to do here. This kind of behavior is policy-lynchable.

moody7277
He's only had two serious posts so far. As his meta goes, both of those posts had some content, but not a lot of content, and had some commitment, but not a lot of commitment. However, he attacked BoomFrog twice in two posts, which IMO is uncharacteristic for him. Filed under "keep an eye on him".

bessie
Only one post so far, which was early into the game, so there isn't a lot to go on. I think it's unusual for bessie to not have made an analysis post yet, but maybe she just didn't have the time. Neutral.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:24 pm UTC

Ok, this has gone on for long enough.

Vote:BoomFrog

until he stops it with the silly posting. While he has posted quotes to communicate and has what appears to be an ordered town-scum list, this has to stop ASAP.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Vicarin: His thoughts on LaserGuy's plans and when the PRs should claim seem to be fairly similar to my own, though he does come to some incorrect conclusions (e.g. if a tracker sees A visiting B, but B does not die, it does not confirm that A is town - they could have been targeted by a doctor for instance). I don't like how he's only focused on this discussion though.


This is true, but seeing as the NK gets blocked in that case, it should be pretty obvious to the tracker that they can't assume A is town for that night. Any time the NK does go through, they can.

LaserGuy wrote:My understanding is that No Lynch is produces a better win rate for Town than a lynch when there is an even number of players. Essentially, it gives an extra day for investigative roles to do their work without costing Town a mislynch and increases the probability that subsequent lynches will hit mafia. Similar effect to doing a No Lynch at MYLO.


Yes, but a doctor save does the same thing, so we can hope for that to occur as well. It's pretty unlikely that we'll mislynch a PR, seeing how hard it would be for the mafia to mess up their claims, and voting records from D1 are still pretty damn useful.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby cemper93 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:27 pm UTC

jimbob wrote:@cemper - you picked bessie as confirmed town and BoomFrog as confirmed scum in your opening post. Is there a particular reason you picked them that way around?

Back when I played here more regularly, BoomFrog was known as the archetypal excellent scum player and bessie was known as the towniest, in particular known for her excellent analysis. So yes, I was kind of going by a dead metagame here.

LaserGuy wrote:Their questioning doesn't feel genuine to me. Claiming to have been reading previous games to get a sense of new player's styles but apparently not paying attention to who was playing those games is weird.

LaserGuy wrote:Why did you ask about Sabrar and jimbob here specifically? You said you've been reading some recent games here, so surely you must have noticed Sabrar. He's has either played in or modded every game in the past year. jimbob has been in about half of those games.

I said I tried to read some games, but I also said they'd gotten long. Yes, I didn't do my homework. Sue me. :D

I asked about Sabrar and jimbob because in the signup thread, it was asked that non-newbie players register as "if there's free space". Sabrar and jimbob both did. I didn't expect to know any new players, so I wanted to get to know the old ones first.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:31 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:Getting overly defensive when being attacked slightly is not a town move.
This is not even close to overly defensive. :lol:

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:41 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:
jimbob wrote:@cemper - you picked bessie as confirmed town and BoomFrog as confirmed scum in your opening post. Is there a particular reason you picked them that way around?


Back when I played here more regularly, BoomFrog was known as the archetypal excellent scum player and bessie was known as the towniest, in particular known for her excellent analysis. So yes, I was kind of going by a dead metagame here.


I think both of these things are still more or less true.

LaserGuy wrote:Why did you ask about Sabrar and jimbob here specifically? You said you've been reading some recent games here, so surely you must have noticed Sabrar. He's has either played in or modded every game in the past year. jimbob has been in about half of those games.

I said I tried to read some games, but I also said they'd gotten long. Yes, I didn't do my homework. Sue me. :D

I asked about Sabrar and jimbob because in the signup thread, it was asked that non-newbie players register as "if there's free space". Sabrar and jimbob both did. I didn't expect to know any new players, so I wanted to get to know the old ones first.


Hmm... okay, I'll buy this and upgrade my scumread of you to a scum lean.

Unvote
Vote: Sabrar

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:25 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:somitomi
He's made some pretty good analysis in his very first post in this game. The content has been solid ever since. Town.


Reading through this reads post carefully, I find this one pretty interesting, because I really wouldn't call any of the content after somitomi's first post solid, and the first post mainly had info other people had said. Can you expand upon this at all?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Peaceful Whale » Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:01 am UTC

Ok, I just got back from stuff. I *promise* I’ll actually do stuff tomorrow morning. Like a good reads list...
Don’t kill me in my sleep?

:P
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:04 am UTC

Reads list:

flicky1991 - Asks about the day/night chat inconsistency which is a good sign. Most of the rest of the posts are pretty short, would like more to go on.

Peaceful Whale - Having read a couple of games that he's been in, I have honestly no idea how to read PW atm, needs more thought.

somitomi - Has a bit of analysis in first post, and then mainly jokes around in the rest of their posts. Active lurking?

LaserGuy - I think the proposed plan is a bad idea, but doubt that it's coming from someone trying to sabotage Town, as the scum team would probably debate for ages before trying to put forward such a proposal. Has also been prodding Sabrar

Hari Seldon - Only one post with decent content, decides to assign numbers to people for town/scum. Interesting that they give me a -1 for assuming that the scum have no power roles and double checking that, while they give Sabrar a +0.5 when he assumed the same thing (and more). Inconsistent?

Sabrar - Worrying that they didn't feel that no questions had to be asked about the setup, seeing as the scum day/night chat inconsistency would only be unambiguous if you are scum. Has been asking a few questions, which is good.

Jimbobmacdoodle - Agrees with not claiming in first post, does a really chunky reads list in 2nd post, hell yeah. Disagree with some of the reads, but hey, that's why everyone posts them. Like this a fair bit if it continues.

BoomFrog - Is a dog, needs to stop being a dog. Has an ordered town-scum list (as far as I can tell).

moody7277 - Not posted that much, but it has been reads lists, so that's good overall. Need more info.

bessie - One post. Post more. At least she's against claiming D1.

cemper93 - Some weird reads in their most recent post, I'd really like a response. Immediately leaning towards LaserGuy's plan after it's confirmed that sanities are not revealed on death was also a bit weird. Does ask the sanities on death question however, which is important info for the town to have if we're considering these plans.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:49 am UTC

I started compiling my reads, but it's super late. Why am I even up this late?
LaserGuy wrote:My understanding is that No Lynch is produces a better win rate for Town than a lynch when there is an even number of players. Essentially, it gives an extra day for investigative roles to do their work without costing Town a mislynch and increases the probability that subsequent lynches will hit mafia. Similar effect to doing a No Lynch at MYLO.

I don't quite understand this. From what I gathered so far, lynching gives us information so even a myslinch is beneficial at this early stage.
BoomFrog wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:BoomFrog: being rather weird with the woofs, no doubt trying to generate reactions. From what I can tell, he agrees with Vicarin and Sabrar that LG's plan doesn't benefit town much, but appears to be placing Sabrar and cemper as scummy while Vicarin and LG are townie
...
While he quotes posts he (presumably) dislikes from Sabrar and cemper, I don't see how they indicate scumminess. With cemper he later clarifies. I could see BoomFrog acting this weirdly as either scum or town - he has prior art.

Woof!

What are you saying? Do you really quote posts you dislike (that would be slightly paradoxical) or is jimbob completely wrong here? While we're on the subject: could you use words please?
LaserGuy wrote:Vote: Sabrar

Is there any "new" reason for this or are you voting Sabrar only for the lack of questions?
—◯-◯

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Hari Seldon » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:52 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:What about the numbers do you find confusing?
Maybe you could just say what they mean? I've not seen numbers like the ones in your post, to my recollection.

The numbers are a subjective representation of how strongly I feel about something. Essentially, anything less than a 1 (or greater than -1) is a feeling or intuition. 1/-1 are mild town tells or suspicions. Anything higher is worth pursuit. My lynch order is based on the cumulative score I have for each person, from lowest to highest. Although, more often than not, I tend to abandon this system once I feel I have a strong grip of the game.

flicky1991 wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Hari: math post is familiar stuff.
What games have you shared with Hari? I don't recognise them.
Halloween Mafia.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Hari Seldon: The reason for this is that it means that scum can safely kill somebody else entirely, without fear of being seen.

Yes, that is the point. You are describing it from a Yang perspective, but my intention is Yin. By doing it this way, we can utilize 3 PRs instead of 2. An unknown (to exist in the game) Watcher has two functionalities: Watch for Scum kills and watch for other PRs. The latter can be used to back up claims in the future. A known Watcher, however, is equipped with a third function: deterrence. Essentially, they can be used as a soft Doctor.

Since Mafia do not have PRs this game and we do not know if Watcher is activated, I believe the best use of Watcher is their latter two functionalities. By assigning a target to Watcher and another PR (I think Cop would be best), Watcher prevents Mafia from being able to counter claim the second PR in the future and they prevent Mafia from killing the second PR's target. The advantage that we have in this set up, is that Watcher does not actually have to be activated in order to use these. So long as the knowledge of who's activated is kept between the PR's themselves, Scum will have to work on a Schrödinger basis and assume all is true. Therefore, we are not just limited to 2 PRs. We can at the very least utilize 3, because an inactive Doctor also has the deterrence function. At the very best, an active Cop and Tracker, we will utilize all 4 of the PRs.


Notes this post:

P3

LaserGuy began scum hunting after my last post, but I do not get a sense of genuineness from it. In particular, his questioning of Cemper felt forced. As JimBob said, he misrepresented Cemper's posts. [-1] I have a suspicion that Laser's change in content is a reaction to my note. I do not think a town lean on BoomFrog is justifiable. His subsequent reaction to the BoomFrog pressure gives me buddy vibes. [-0.2].

Sabrar is not at all as involved as I would expect. He has less than half the content he had by page 3 of Santa. [-0.5]

Notes History:
Spoiler:
P1

Sabrar's opening is more similar to Santa (Town) than Crossover (Mafia). In Crossover, he made an introduction post welcoming the players from the other site, which I presume was due to an inclination to get words out on the page. Since this is a Newbie game, I suspect that a Mafia Sabrar would show a similar pattern. I also had the impression of tension while reading his first few posts in Crossover. This is in contrast to his jocular posts here and in Santa. [0.5]

I have a town instinct from flicky. His RVS vote comes off to me as easy-going, similar to the impression I had of JimBob in Halloween. [0.5]

It is peculiar to me that Vicarin correctly deduced that Mafia do not have PRs, or rather that the question had even occurred to him. There was nothing to indicate this. [-1]

P2

LaserGuy's vote on Sabrar was serious. LaserGuy did not initially divulge this. [-0.5] Furthermore, LaserGuy's posts are continuing to focus on Night actions. This is in contrast to Halloween where LaserGuy immediately began scum hunting and pressuring players. His vote on Sabrar had no content behind it. [-1]


flicky1991: 0.5
Peaceful Whale
somitomi
LaserGuy: -1.5
Vicarin: -0.5
Sabrar: 0.5
Jimbobmacdoodle
BoomFrog
moody7277
bessie
cemper93


Current Lynch Order:

LaserGuy > Vicarin > Peaceful Whale = somitomi = Jimbobmacdoodle = BoomFrog = moody7277 = bessie = cemper93 = Sabrar > flicky1991

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:53 am UTC

somitomi wrote:I started compiling my reads, but it's super late. Why am I even up this late?
LaserGuy wrote:My understanding is that No Lynch is produces a better win rate for Town than a lynch when there is an even number of players. Essentially, it gives an extra day for investigative roles to do their work without costing Town a mislynch and increases the probability that subsequent lynches will hit mafia. Similar effect to doing a No Lynch at MYLO.


I don't quite understand this. From what I gathered so far, lynching gives us information so even a myslinch is beneficial at this early stage.


Here's the math. Right now it's 9 town, 3 mafia. If we have mislynch/NK, then we lose two townies. Goes to 7-3, 5-3. 5-3 is MYLO... if we mislynch, then we lose (barring a doctor save in this setup). Now, if we No Lynch D1, then mafia gets a kill, so it goes 8-3, 6-3, 4-3 is LYLO, mislynch and lose. We still have the same number of mislynches before losing the game, but we gain one free night phase. Also, in 8-3, the odds of hitting scum on a random lynch are 27%, versus 25% at 9-3, and that advantage is sustained throughout the game... i.e. it's more favorable to Town to have an odd number of players in the game (assuming a one kill scenario like we have).

somitomi wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Vote: Sabrar

Is there any "new" reason for this or are you voting Sabrar only for the lack of questions?


Sabrar is also active lurking.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Suzaku » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:29 am UTC

Current Votals

Sabrar - 2 (BoomFrog, LaserGuy)
BoomFrog - 2 (cemper93, Vicarin)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, somitomi, Hari Seldon, bessie, Sabrar, flicky1991, moody7277, jimbobmacdoodle

With 12 alive hammer requires 7 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
No deadline has yet been set.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby bessie » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:39 am UTC

To everyone that’s commented on me only having one post – it’s only been like 22 hours since my previous post. I work a regular day job, and I live in the Los Angeles metro area so add 1.5 – 2 hours I’m in my car driving to and from work every day. I don’t play on my work computers for reasons (I’m not blocked but the computers are monitored), and I also don’t like to play on my phone at work (phones are not allowed and while no one would stop me, I feel that it’s hypocritical for someone in my position to break rules they are supposed to enforce). So the most I will do at work is a quick post (like a confirmation post, or to vote if it’s near deadline).

Anyway, where was I? Wow, bottom of P1.

Sabrar wrote:
cemper93 wrote:If you were scum this game, who would you want to be your partner?
Obviously bessie.
Woof (wag wag wag). :)

Agree with Sabrar’s post on PR claiming here.

Vicarin wrote:I find it interesting that as the mafia don't have any other abilities than the NK,
How so? The town power roles are not straighforward, and there are three mafia. What mafia powers do you think might balance this game?

Sabrar wrote:The first two can be easily answered by reading the rules carefully, the last one can be guessed based on the general intention of the mod.
Agree with the first two, but I thought sanity would be revealed in the flip so I’m glad someone asked. And I've discovered that I'm not the greatest at guessing the mod's intent. :)

Sabrar wrote:I also consider this question to be completely unnecessary.
Disagree. I already pointed out that wam was going to put a miller in the 9 player version, and it was possible that he also considered one for the 12 player version (it was unclear from the Gojoe post). The setup is semi-open with no mod confirmation that there are no hidden mechanics so jimbob’s question was reasonable.

Sabrar wrote:I don't ask questions where I'm reasonably certain of what the answer would be.
Noted, in case I think of an example later.

Peaceful Whale wrote:Game started about an hour after I was asleep, just woke up. However schools canceled... so I’ll be able to pooost a lot today. Let me read...
I don’t want to come off as judgmental so I apologize in advance if this is out of line, but confirmation phase started at 12:35 pm EST, and the game started at 5:13 pm EST. So this post is somewhat suspicious, like you’re trying to make up an excuse for lurking.

BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:BoomFrog, any reasons for your vote?
Woof woof.

Unvote
Hmm, interesting.

somitomi wrote:How many day vigilantes are in this game?
Why did you ask this question?

Peaceful Whale wrote:Less serious note:
Peaceful Whale, your content in this game better be more than a lot of “less serious” posts.

somitomi wrote:I think the less serious note is more appropriate in response to a post intended in jest. And on that note, bessie can't be a day vig. She's been acting townie so far ergo she's obvscum :P
What I just said to Peaceful Whale, you too.

Re Peaceful Whale’s reads list here:
Peaceful Whale wrote:somitomi, I’m grouping me and Somitori together, we’re both kinda new, and I feel like we’re not going to be big leaders. Towny
Explain how your newbiness=not leaders=townie
Peaceful Whale wrote:Vicarin where is he?
Well, he’d made eight posts at that point, more than many other players thus far.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Jimbobmacdoodle, was really good scum, so not trusting him.
Peaceful Whale wrote:bessie town, duh... let’s see who she tunnels first.
So Peaceful Whale, is it your evaluation that I played rather poorly in Secret Santa? If no, why trust me and not jimbob?
Peaceful Whale wrote:BoomFrog meow? Has he done really anything but bark? (He’s done other stuff, barkings on the top of my head)
Yes, he has. He’s answered questions directed at him, and he’s given us an ordered reads list.

flicky1991 wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Woof!
Please provide some non-woof content.
He has. Where’s your ordered list?

somitomi wrote:Anyone have a plausible explanation to BoomFrog's posts consisting solely of woofs?
I’m seriously ready to FoS everyone that is using this as an excuse to brush off BoomFrog’s content.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: @bessie/BoomFrog - did scum!cemper ever show indication of gambits involving asking mods fake questions in order to look better with a future plan?
I will need to think about this. My joke earlier about how cemper’s last game was when I was scum was because it’s been a long time. So, not ignoring you, I just don’t recall.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:(bessie roleplays, but also makes useful observations, unlike BoomFrog apparently)
Aw, jimbob, you missed the joke. That’s a female dog in my avatar (the late BessieDog herself). :P

Will pick up here (top of P4) later tonight.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:03 am UTC

bessie wrote:
Vicarin wrote:I find it interesting that as the mafia don't have any other abilities than the NK,
How so? The town power roles are not straighforward, and there are three mafia. What mafia powers do you think might balance this game?


Oh, it wasn't for balance reasons (goodness knows the PRs are going to find it hard enough already sorting stuff out, and there's 3 mafia), but I don't think the mafia being vanilla has happened for quite a while on here. Is a newbie game and all though, so it makes sense.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:59 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:BoomFrog
Posting nothing but "woof" adds confusion, doesn't help town in any way and is a safe position for scum to hide in. If BoomFrog is not scum, I don't know what he's trying to do here. This kind of behavior is policy-lynchable..

Woof woof.

Grrr....
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:01 am UTC

bessie wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Woof!
Please provide some non-woof content.
He has. Where’s your ordered list?

somitomi wrote:Anyone have a plausible explanation to BoomFrog's posts consisting solely of woofs?
I’m seriously ready to FoS everyone that is using this as an excuse to brush off BoomFrog’s content.
Woof!

Aroooooo!!!
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:57 am UTC

bessie wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Woof!
Please provide some non-woof content.
He has. Where’s your ordered list?
I didn't think there was enough to go on yet. I'll read through everyone tonight. I still would consider BoomFrog to have not provided any original content, since all he's been able to indicate with this method of posting is whether he agrees or disagrees with other people's statements.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:00 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:
Vicarin wrote:I am mildly worried that BoomFrog seems to be trying to roleplay his new avatar.
I've got no issue with it as long as he responds to questions if he's asked any.
BoomFrog used 'Woof' a lot in Crossover, so that's a point of caution.

Grrr...
Unvote Sabrar
Vote Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:26 am UTC

Adding a townlean to bessie and scumlean to HS to my previous reads. Feeling more confident in BoomFrog read having giving it some more thought.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:28 am UTC

@bessie: What do you think of Sabrar at the moment?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:30 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
cemper93 wrote:BoomFrog, really? Normally, this would be the point where I remove my joke vote, given that LaserGuy has gotten serious and all, but you have done nothing at all to persuade me that my joke vote shouldn't become serious.


Why do you feel this is alignment indicative?


@cemper: Why did you never reply to this?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby bessie » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:37 am UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:@Vicarin, do you have any previous mafia experience?
Noted. This is your second attempt to distance yourself from Vicarin.

flicky1991 wrote:I see BoomFrog's woofs as deliberately unhelpful. There is no good reason for town to play that way.
So… how would it make more sense for scum to play this way?

cemper93 wrote:Peaceful Whale claims to be new, which other players around here might be able to judge better than me.
Peaceful Whale is fairly new, he’s played 3 1/2 games. And I think that I’ve spent a great deal of my energy in those games either attacking or defending him. I’m dismayed to say that this is pretty typical content for Peaceful Whale.

cemper, I’m not seeing your town read on somitomi, can you please elaborate?

Sabrar wrote:
cemper93 wrote:Getting overly defensive when being attacked slightly is not a town move.
This is not even close to overly defensive. :lol:
I’ll confirm this. :P

Vicarin wrote:BoomFrog - Is a dog, needs to stop being a dog.
And what’s wrong with being a dog? Woof!

LaserGuy wrote:
cemper93 wrote:
jimbob wrote:@cemper - you picked bessie as confirmed town and BoomFrog as confirmed scum in your opening post. Is there a particular reason you picked them that way around?

Back when I played here more regularly, BoomFrog was known as the archetypal excellent scum player and bessie was known as the towniest, in particular known for her excellent analysis. So yes, I was kind of going by a dead metagame here.

I think both of these things are still more or less true.
:shock: ... :lol: ... :x ... :( ... ... sigh

Vicarin wrote:Oh, it wasn't for balance reasons (goodness knows the PRs are going to find it hard enough already sorting stuff out, and there's 3 mafia), but I don't think the mafia being vanilla has happened for quite a while on here. Is a newbie game and all though, so it makes sense.
It’s not very common as of late to have games with this many (if any) vanilla roles, but mafia has daychat which is pretty powerful in itself.

flicky1991 wrote: I still would consider BoomFrog to have not provided any original content, since all he's been able to indicate with this method of posting is whether he agrees or disagrees with other people's statements.
Noted, I see what you’re saying, but in doing so isn’t he also committing to an opinion? In doing it that way, he’s not leaving much of an out, like “I agree with this post, unless it’s this other way, which it could be because it’s kinda scummy, but I still think it comes from a townie point of view”?

Reads list tomorrow night, I have an early morning meeting that I haven’t even prepared for yet.

Ninja'd by LaserGuy. Not sure on Sabrar. I wouldn't currently put him as a town lean, but I can't point to anything particular that pings me. I will think about it tonight and hopefully have more content from him when I do my reads list tomorrow. Because you know I don't do any true neutrals in my reads lists (except for things like inactivity due to RL issues).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:45 am UTC

BoomFrog is likely town, by extension bessie as well (and I may be completely burned by this but don't think so currently). I think somitomi tried to fake a town-slip, making him scum. I have very bad feelings about LaserGuy but he's known to be misguided and too damn sure about his opinions. Don't like PW. Find reactions to this very interesting.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:12 am UTC

Some quick responses while on the bus:
LaserGuy wrote:Why is BoomFrog in your Townie group rather than null? There's nothing in your reasoning here to suggest that you're townreading him.
A fair question, and I should have updated my commentary to say this. When I was deciding which group to put BoomFrog in, as I ended my post, my gut ended up leaning towards this being more likely to come from town BoomFrog than scum, despite what I said earlier. His is one of many reads that are subject to change for this sort of reason.

LaserGuy, your No Lynch then random lynch probability comments are misleading at best. Firstly, since when do town ever random lynch? Secondly, it omits the D1 probability of lynching scum. I don't have time or inclination, but if lynching randomly across two days, as opposed to 1, the chance of hitting at least one scum is greater (not to mention the fact that we could hit two). Add to this the potential for a doctor save, which grants us an extra mislynch, instead of a no lynch, and I'm beginning to lean more towards your motives as being suspicious.

I feel like there was other stuff I wanted to respond to, but it'll have to wait until later.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:28 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:
Vicarin wrote:I am mildly worried that BoomFrog seems to be trying to roleplay his new avatar.
I've got no issue with it as long as he responds to questions if he's asked any.
BoomFrog used 'Woof' a lot in Crossover, so that's a point of caution.

Grrr...
Unvote Sabrar
Vote Sabrar

Seriously? That comment was made when I expected you to communicate in non-woof as well. Are you deliberately ignoring context? Also why are you reacting to it so late?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby cemper93 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:34 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
cemper93 wrote:BoomFrog, really? Normally, this would be the point where I remove my joke vote, given that LaserGuy has gotten serious and all, but you have done nothing at all to persuade me that my joke vote shouldn't become serious.


Why do you feel this is alignment indicative?


@cemper: Why did you never reply to this?

I think I did respond to this in my analysis post.

bessie wrote:cemper, I’m not seeing your town read on somitomi, can you please elaborate?

vicarin wrote: Reading through this reads post carefully, I find this one pretty interesting, because I really wouldn't call any of the content after somitomi's first post solid, and the first post mainly had info other people had said. Can you expand upon this at all?

I liked the initial analysis post, it had reasonable talk about the setup and good questions. It was, at most, slightly lacking in commitment. Somitomi also commented reasonably on PeacefulWhale's evaluation of Sabrar and on LaserGuy's behavior. Somitomi still feels much more town to me than not. I agree he should make another large post though.

bessie wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:
I still would consider BoomFrog to have not provided any original content, since all he's been able to indicate with this method of posting is whether he agrees or disagrees with other people's statements.

Noted, I see what you’re saying, but in doing so isn’t he also committing to an opinion? In doing it that way, he’s not leaving much of an out, like “I agree with this post, unless it’s this other way, which it could be because it’s kinda scummy, but I still think it comes from a townie point of view”?

He's actually not committing at all. Given that he barks at things he disagrees with, things he agrees with and things he just wants to call attention to equally, no hard commitments can be read out of his posts. The same goes for his town-scum list, which has no reasoning behind it and is hence 100% non-committal -- it is essentially just based on feelings that could change at any point. Furthermore, BoomFrog is a way better scum player than to make the kind of half-assed assessments that you're talking about, whether he plays normally or not. You also know that, having played a lot of games with him. On his team too, maybe?

By the way, regarding the Laser Guy Gambit, everyone seems to have agreed by now that power roles shouldn't claim. I also originally thought so, but I believe that with sanity not being revealed upon death (which very much surprised me also -- Sabrar, what do you know about the mod's intention?), this is less cut-and-dry. If cop only gets town results or watcher / tracker only get "no movement", these don't help confirm townies. IMO that's a large problem, and bessie pings me slightly for not seeing that. (Everyone else who doesn't see that is not bessie, so they're OK.)

Unvote BoomFrog
Vote bessie


This was just bad analysis all around, which is completely out of character for her.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:37 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:I also originally thought so, but I believe that with sanity not being revealed upon death (which very much surprised me also -- Sabrar, what do you know about the mod's intention?),
Setup was created with intentional ambiguity in mind. Revealing sanity upon death defeats the purpose.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:59 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Some quick responses while on the bus:
LaserGuy wrote:Why is BoomFrog in your Townie group rather than null? There's nothing in your reasoning here to suggest that you're townreading him.
A fair question, and I should have updated my commentary to say this. When I was deciding which group to put BoomFrog in, as I ended my post, my gut ended up leaning towards this being more likely to come from town BoomFrog than scum, despite what I said earlier. His is one of many reads that are subject to change for this sort of reason.


Are any other players in your final groupings different from what your reads say they are?

I'm going to put this bit in spoilers because it's essentially theory that isn't really relevant to this particular game.
Spoiler:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:LaserGuy, your No Lynch then random lynch probability comments are misleading at best. Firstly, since when do town ever random lynch?


Random lynch is the only fair way to model the relevant probabilities. Good play can tip the odds one way or the other in a particular direction for a given game, but assuming a random distribution of player abilities, over the long haul you would expect the D1 lynch probability to be close to chance. Empirical evidence seems to support this (see Lynch Accuracy spoiler: Over 450 games, in Matrix6 setup town mislynches 79% of the time on D1 compared to 77.7% predicted by chance).

Secondly, it omits the D1 probability of lynching scum.


No? The odds I'm talking about are the odds of hitting scum. The baseline odds of hitting scum D1 are 25% in this setup. If we No Lynch, the odds of hitting scum tomorrow are 27%. Hence, it is marginally more likely that we will hit scum D2 following a No Lynch D1.

I don't have time or inclination, but if lynching randomly across two days, as opposed to 1, the chance of hitting at least one scum is greater (not to mention the fact that we could hit two). Add to this the potential for a doctor save, which grants us an extra mislynch, instead of a no lynch, and I'm beginning to lean more towards your motives as being suspicious.


You are misunderstanding. In both scenarios there are the same number of lynches.

I don't recall there being a doctor save in any game I've played on these forums (since Diablo.... I think that's the only game I've played where there has been a blocked kill generally). I don't consider this a particularly likely event especially considering that we may not even have a real doctor.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:59 am UTC

bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I don't ask questions where I'm reasonably certain of what the answer would be.
Noted, in case I think of an example later.
Why do you only note this now as this has been clear since X-Men?

bessie wrote:The setup is semi-open with no mod confirmation that there are no hidden mechanics so jimbob’s question was reasonable.
Setup is described as "newbie friendly and reasonably straight forward" in the sign-up thread. It is evident from the Gojoe post you linked earlier that balancing town!PR-s is done by varying sanity levels only. There is no hint at scum!PR-s or hidden mechanics. The question was unnecessary.

@LaserGuy: do you have any additional reason for your vote besides me not asking unnecessary questions?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:07 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Here's the math. Right now it's 9 town, 3 mafia. If we have mislynch/NK, then we lose two townies. Goes to 7-3, 5-3. 5-3 is MYLO... if we mislynch, then we lose (barring a doctor save in this setup). Now, if we No Lynch D1, then mafia gets a kill, so it goes 8-3, 6-3, 4-3 is LYLO, mislynch and lose. We still have the same number of mislynches before losing the game, but we gain one free night phase. Also, in 8-3, the odds of hitting scum on a random lynch are 27%, versus 25% at 9-3, and that advantage is sustained throughout the game... i.e. it's more favorable to Town to have an odd number of players in the game (assuming a one kill scenario like we have).

Thanks for the explanation. I feel like comparing no lynch D2 chances with D1 chances is a bit of a stretch, although I can see why you did that.
bessie wrote:Why did you ask this question?

It was a joke, BoomFrog reminded me of Sabrar in Secret Santa (I'll get back to that) and then Peaceful Whale started meowing too (as a joke I presume).
Vicarin wrote:I’m seriously ready to FoS everyone that is using this as an excuse to brush off BoomFrog’s content.

I'm not dismissing BoomFrog's content, but it puzzles me tremendously. I don't see mafia doing this (it would be too blatant) but I also don't see why on Earth town would do this either, I think it"s just not helpful at all. It's not exactly clear what he means when he quotes a post, this discussion could've been a single BoomFrog post (with no contribution from other players) for example. I had the same feeling about Sabrar in Secret Santa, however that game had a closed setup and mild bastardry.
That reminds me...
@BoomFrog: Could you respond to this, please?
somitomi wrote:What are you saying? Do you really quote posts you dislike (that would be slightly paradoxical) or is jimbob completely wrong here?


cemper93 wrote: If cop only gets town results or watcher / tracker only get "no movement", these don't help confirm townies. IMO that's a large problem, and bessie pings me slightly for not seeing that. (Everyone else who doesn't see that is not bessie, so they're OK.)

It seems to me the chances of whichever PR hitting scum increase as time goes on, so a sane cop/watcher/tracker should eventually get a positive result retroactively confirming all "town/no movement" results.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:23 am UTC

somitomi wrote:
Vicarin wrote:I’m seriously ready to FoS everyone that is using this as an excuse to brush off BoomFrog’s content.


Just chiming in to say that the above quote here was originally bessie, not me. Not sure how that happened.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:29 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:
Just chiming in to say that the above quote here was originally bessie, not me. Not sure how that happened.

:shock: How did I mess up the quote tags this much?
Ahem, correction:
bessie wrote:I’m seriously ready to FoS everyone that is using this as an excuse to brush off BoomFrog’s content.
—◯-◯


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