Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - Endgame - Apocalypse

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Madge
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:15 am UTC

claim table (did I miss any):

Laserguy
Freezeblade - roleblocker (1-shot; madge, N1)
sabrar
plytho - 1 shot watcher (used N1 on Zenii; saw h_a and didn't see Madge) and 1 shot tracker (unknown)
Vicarin - bodyguard (Bessie N1; wam N2)
Somitomi
Bessie
wam - cop (1-shot; sabrar, town, N1)
Madge - one shot vig (Zenii, N1) + one shot doc (Sabrar, N2)

Thanks for that - I am trying to keep targets there.

My four killables: Bessie, freezeblade, somitomi, laserguy

the latter two will change following claims
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:30 am UTC

somitomi claimed day ends on his lynch.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:35 am UTC

Oh yeah, was also thinking more about something from the day start:

@Everyone: Do you think that h_a not providing a flip was actively chosen by someone (almost certainly scum), or was a passive part of h_a's role?

If the former, what do you think scum was trying to achieve by choosing h_a?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:38 am UTC

claim table (did I miss any):

Laserguy
Freezeblade - roleblocker (1-shot; madge, N1)
sabrar
plytho - 1 shot watcher (used N1 on Zenii; saw h_a and didn't see Madge) and 1 shot tracker (unknown)
Vicarin - bodyguard (Bessie N1; wam N2)
Somitomi - day ends when he is executed
Bessie
wam - cop (1-shot; sabrar, town, N1)
Madge - one shot vig (Zenii, N1) + one shot doc (Sabrar, N2)

@vicarin: I think it was scum's decision to make us doubt whether sabrar is town or not, and also I think some people had some recursive towniness determination that hinged on making determinations based on h_a's flip?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:36 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Oh yeah, was also thinking more about something from the day start:

@Everyone: Do you think that h_a not providing a flip was actively chosen by someone (almost certainly scum), or was a passive part of h_a's role?

If the former, what do you think scum was trying to achieve by choosing h_a?


This post is pinging me massively. The way it is phrased and the question implies Vic knows huery is not scum.

Which is odd because I believe huery is.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:45 am UTC

@LaserGuy: please explain how GA!heury could have been seen by plytho visiting Zen when you also think that redirection is very unlikely.

@all: we need to get rolling with the executes. My list is plytho, Madge, somitomi with a fourth pending review.

Vote: Vicarin

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:50 am UTC

I don't mind order we go in

vote vicarin
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:19 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@LaserGuy: please explain how GA!heury could have been seen by plytho visiting Zen when you also think that redirection is very unlikely.


That's one reason why I think GA!heury is fairly unlikely, now (as I noted here). I didn't know plytho's result at the time, though I did think a watcher-like result was a strong possibility based on some of the things he had been softing D2.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Zenii » Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:55 am UTC

Current votals:

Vicarin - 2 (Sabrar, wam)
freezeblade - 1 (Vicarin)
Maven89 - 1 (LaserGuy)
LaserGuy - 1 (plytho)

Not Voting: freezeblade, Madge, Maven89, somitomi

With nine alive, 5 votes are required for execution.

Deadline is 2018/3/14 23:00 JST (=2018/3/14 14:00 UTC)

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:14 am UTC

Madge wrote:My four killables: Bessie, freezeblade, somitomi, laserguy

the latter two will change following claims
To avoid confusion: We're actually making lists of people we want to survive. So your list would be: Sabrar, wam, Vicarin and me.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:21 am UTC

The way Sabrar and wam are willing to go ahead for a mass execution before hearing from 2 out of our 9 players is kind of ridiculous.

Also doing so without getting claims from everyone first is silly seeing as with so many deaths this game is either ending today or tomorrow.

@Sabrar: Why not start with someone who isn't actually saying anything at the moment?

wam wrote:This post is pinging me massively. The way it is phrased and the question implies Vic knows huery is not scum.

Which is odd because I believe huery is.


I think he's scum, I'm just trying to make sure that we're not rushing headlong into a disastrous endgame. And to aid with that, I'd like people's opinions on why they think h_a didn't have a flip, as I asked. I find it kind of bizarre that you'd say the way I phrased it implies that I know he's not scum, what part of it makes you think that?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:24 am UTC

A quick summary of my case on LaserGuy:

LaserGuy voted wam near the end of D2 "to confirm wam or Sabrar".

I think this is very suspicious, since at that point we were expecting a heury flip to inform us about wam's counterclaim/alignment.

LaserGuy's defense on this has been 'yeah, but what if indie?' and we've been arguing around the details about that (I think an indie claim still informs us about wam's alignment, LaserGuy seems to think it doesn't.)

But the general point still stands that there was a very good chance that heury's flip would tell us something. So voting wam to confirm wam or Sabrar, on the off chance that heury's indie flip wouldn't provide us info on wam's claim/alignment makes no sense.

So, LaserGuy, when you voted wam D2, what were the odds from your point of view of heury flipping town/scum/indie and what would each of these flips tell us (or not tell us) about wam's counterclaim? (this is what I meant when I asked for the possibilities).

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:Why would a cop need to claim at that point?


No idea. I don't think heury was a cop, as noted in my read above.

That's not what I was asking.

I'm saying there's no reason for a town!cop to counterclaim heury as he's being lynched. That would be playing directly into scum's hand.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:28 am UTC

I'd still like a response from wam or plytho about whether their night results were worded like "you got a result of X from Y" or "you got a result of X from your target". I'm guessing it's the latter because plytho was allowing for a redirector to exist.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:29 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:The way Sabrar and wam are willing to go ahead for a mass execution before hearing from 2 out of our 9 players is kind of ridiculous.

...

@Sabrar: Why not start with someone who isn't actually saying anything at the moment?
The second part follows directly from the first. I'm all for axing Maven and freezeblade today but it would be a bit rude to do so without them saying anything in case they were otherwise engaged during weekend.

Given the reasonable assumption that Janitor is 1-shot, hiding h_a is a logical course of action no matter who scum is. If h_a is scum they want to hide connections, cast doubt on wam's cc and so on. If h_a is not scum they could be protecting wam, casting doubt on h_a's result and so on. This is filled with wine and provides no information as whatever we conclude could be coming from an opposite situation where scum hid him to make us think so.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:31 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I think you can probably safely discard scenarios involving Town!heury. I suppose there's an edge case where heury was redirected, but that would be a very unlikely and unlucky series of events.


what do you mean by that series of events?


The odds of heury targeting Sabrar (Town cop would not lie about a result, so if heury is Town I think we have to assume he targeted Sabrar) and being redirected to the same person that you happened to observe. It's not impossible, but the odds are in the 1/100 range by chance (heury has a ~3/4 chance of getting a Town result by chance; redirector has a ~1/8 chance of picking heury; redirect has a ~1/8 chance of changing the target to the same person as you).


I don't think the 3/4 chance of getting a town result by chance is relevant. You're right about redirector having 1/8 chance of picking heury and 1/8 chance of picking Zen. But scum/indie heury also has around 1/8 chance of picking Zen. So you have to compare 1/64 odds to 1/8 odds. This means that purely based on this reasoning scum/indie is around 8 times more likely than town heury. This, to me isn't enough to conclude heury is scum and wam is town.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby somitomi » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:36 am UTC

plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:My four killables: Bessie, freezeblade, somitomi, laserguy

the latter two will change following claims
To avoid confusion: We're actually making lists of people we want to survive. So your list would be: Sabrar, wam, Vicarin and me.

It's all the same as long as it's clear which list it is. Sabrar also listed people he would have lynched.
Vicarin wrote:@Everyone: Do you think that h_a not providing a flip was actively chosen by someone (almost certainly scum), or was a passive part of h_a's role?

I think it was an active choice designed to ferment some wine along the lines of "scum would want to hide a scum flip, but they might hide a town flip to make us think it was a scum flip" and so on. [pre-post edit: Sabrar just said this too] I personally lean towards scum!heury though and in that case a passive power seems equally possible.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:42 am UTC

somitomi wrote:
plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:My four killables: Bessie, freezeblade, somitomi, laserguy

the latter two will change following claims
To avoid confusion: We're actually making lists of people we want to survive. So your list would be: Sabrar, wam, Vicarin and me.

It's all the same as long as it's clear which list it is. Sabrar also listed people he would have lynched.
Umm, no, he didn't?

This is exactly the confusion I want to avoid :D
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:45 am UTC

Oi, plytho: Answer my question about how your results were worded please.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:48 am UTC

Oi, vic, I'm hesitating because I'm worried this is getting close to pm quoting.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:51 am UTC

Note: in about 4 hours freezeblade and maven should be getting modprods, as per rule 5.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:00 am UTC

Ok, I'll make it not PM quoting. Fair enough.

Does the result from your action leave it ambiguous who you watched on N1? You were leaving the option open before.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:28 am UTC

Madge wrote:ALSO DEADLINE IS ON MY BIRTHDAY :O :O :O
Just so you're aware we plan to exe multiple people today, extending the deadline. Please check back when you're sober. :)

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:32 am UTC

@Sabrar: have I missed your reasoning on lynching 4 people over 3? If not, could you provide it?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:39 am UTC

I don't think I've advocated 3 at all. Why stop there? Axing more people gives us better control as long as we follow basic safety rules.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:57 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Madge wrote:ALSO DEADLINE IS ON MY BIRTHDAY :O :O :O
Just so you're aware we plan to exe multiple people today, extending the deadline. Please check back when you're sober. :)


I don't drink, which is a relief because can you imagine the posts drunk!madge would get up to????

thx plytho for converting my list to "saveables". to reiterate though my concern is mostly on the quality of claims / towniness of powers / etc so this list will fluctuate and i'm sure someone will want to vote me off for changing my mind when someone has an ironclad clam later on :roll:
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:06 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:My list is plytho, Madge, somitomi with a fourth pending review.
Fourth can be wam.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:09 pm UTC

Ugh, I’m so frustrated by the lack of heury’s flip.

On the one hand I really want to believe in town!wam and town!Sabrar. I’m just so afraid of handing scum the victory on a silver platter.

Maven and freezeblade, if town, aren’t helping at all with their lynchable lurkiness, while Madge and somitomi are kind of going ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Right, so, once again, assuming wam is town:

My list is wam, Sabrar, Madge

Not sure: Vicarin, somitomi

Lynch list: LaserGuy, maven, freezeblade

The reason I'm considering 3 instead of 4 lynches is that town loses if we lynch 4 and 2 scum survive and I'm not that confident in my reads.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:32 pm UTC

request modprod on freezeblade

request modprod on Maven89
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:52 pm UTC

@Vic

It was the question at the end. The way it was phrased to me implied huery was not part of scum.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:42 pm UTC

From five lists the count is:

Sabrar: 4
Plytho: 4
Wam: 3
Madge: 3
Somitomi: 2
Vicarin: 1
bessie/maven: 1
Freezeblade: 0
LaserGuy: 0

No lists from: somitomi, Vicarin, freezeblade, maven

I think I'm fine going into the night with the top 4.

@somitomi, @Vicarin: you were around, why didn’t you make a list?

Lists in spoiler:
Spoiler:
LaserGuy wrote:Sabrar, plytho, Madge. I guess somitomi can be 4th.
Sabrar wrote:
Sabrar wrote:My list is plytho, Madge, somitomi with a fourth pending review.
Fourth can be wam.
plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:..
So your list would be: Sabrar, wam, Vicarin and me.
plytho wrote:My list is wam, Sabrar, Madge
wam wrote:My 4

Sabrar
Plytho

Long way down
Bessie/maven -

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:43 pm UTC

@Wam: what do you think of my case on LaserGuy? How do my points fit with your town read on him?

Vicarin wrote:Ok, I'll make it not PM quoting. Fair enough.

Does the result from your action leave it ambiguous who you watched on N1? You were leaving the option open before.

It's ambiguous.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:21 pm UTC

Plythos answer made me realise I hadn't answered. Mine was ambiguous as well.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:22 pm UTC

@plytho: can you have a look at a possible LaserGuy+wam and LaserGuy+Madge scum-team? Is there something that specific that would rule those out?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby somitomi » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:46 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
somitomi wrote:
plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:My four killables: Bessie, freezeblade, somitomi, laserguy

the latter two will change following claims
To avoid confusion: We're actually making lists of people we want to survive. So your list would be: Sabrar, wam, Vicarin and me.

It's all the same as long as it's clear which list it is. Sabrar also listed people he would have lynched.
Umm, no, he didn't?

This is exactly the confusion I want to avoid :D

:oops:
plytho wrote:@somitomi, @Vicarin: you were around, why didn’t you make a list?

I wanted to think about it a bit more than my schedule permitted at the time, maybe skim some players. My list after that is plytho, wam, LaserGuy and Sabrar
Sabrar wrote:I don't think I've advocated 3 at all. Why stop there? Axing more people gives us better control as long as we follow basic safety rules.

Might be newbie question, but what sort of safety rules are we talking about?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:50 pm UTC

Basically voting out people in an order that reduces the chance of allowing scum to control the vote at any point.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:59 pm UTC

plytho wrote:But the general point still stands that there was a very good chance that heury's flip would tell us something. So voting wam to confirm wam or Sabrar, on the off chance that heury's indie flip wouldn't provide us info on wam's claim/alignment makes no sense.


I was voting wam because I had a scumread on Sabrar and felt the need to ensure one of them was cleared before going into D3.

So, LaserGuy, when you voted wam D2, what were the odds from your point of view of heury flipping town/scum/indie and what would each of these flips tell us (or not tell us) about wam's counterclaim? (this is what I meant when I asked for the possibilities).


I already answered this.

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:Why would a cop need to claim at that point?


No idea. I don't think heury was a cop, as noted in my read above.

That's not what I was asking.

I'm saying there's no reason for a town!cop to counterclaim heury as he's being lynched. That would be playing directly into scum's hand.[/quote]

I think you should reread the lynch scramble again. The only reason that heury was lynched at all was because bessie and I didn't believe his claim. Vicarin, Madge and Sabrar all believed his claim and wanted to lynch (ironically) wam instead.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Maven89 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:31 pm UTC

I'm extremely sorry for my inactivity, I've been very busy. I have read over the game, but to be honest most of it is a blur to me at this point. I hate to be like this, but I'm going to need people to point me to what they want me to focus on. My main scum read was Sabrar, due to his (imo) poor and overzealous push on Zen, but Wam clearing him meant I was barking up the wrong tree. I found Wam's claim of cop more believable than H_A's. H_A was probably hid to try and get a lynch in on Wam, assuming a doc would protect him during the night. I'm very confident on this and can explain why later.

@Laserguy I'm not claiming today

Vicarian seems to be the main push, so I'm going to do a read through on him in a moment. Again, I'm sorry for replacing him and being inactive like this, but please bear with me. If this is going to be too much of a problem, let me know and I can have jimbob replace me. I wasn't expecting this inactivity, but recently started a relationship which took up much of my time.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:08 pm UTC

Maven89 wrote:I hate to be like this, but I'm going to need people to point me to what they want me to focus on.
We're trying to form a town block and we intend to lynch everyone else. Right now the proposed town block is {wam, Sabrar, Madge, plytho} Thats where you should focus. Do you have a good reason to think there are two scum in that block?

You're definitely not in the town block so you'll most likely get lynched today.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:28 pm UTC

@plytho

I can see the logic. I'm torn as your case is persuasive but I keep coming back to the fact i can't see scum laser changing his meta for this game. Balancing against that is the fact he admitted he changed it for survival reasons.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:44 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
So, LaserGuy, when you voted wam D2, what were the odds from your point of view of heury flipping town/scum/indie and what would each of these flips tell us (or not tell us) about wam's counterclaim? (this is what I meant when I asked for the possibilities).


I already answered this.
Where? Because this doesn't count:
LaserGuy wrote:
Also please answer my question from D2.


Town!heury and Town!wam are mutually exclusive, but indy!heury gives us no info about wam.



LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:Why would a cop need to claim at that point?


No idea. I don't think heury was a cop, as noted in my read above.

That's not what I was asking.

I'm saying there's no reason for a town!cop to counterclaim heury as he's being lynched. That would be playing directly into scum's hand.


I think you should reread the lynch scramble again. The only reason that heury was lynched at all was because bessie and I didn't believe his claim. Vicarin, Madge and Sabrar all believed his claim and wanted to lynch (ironically) wam instead.
Maybe you should read the scramble again. The wam wagon never threatened the heury wagon. There was no reason for eg bessie or somitomi to counterclaim heury's cop.
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