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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:54 am UTC
by LaserGuy
That vote doesn't give me a lot of confidence :?

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:54 am UTC
by mpolo
BoomFrog wrote:I actually disagree with mpolo. From mpolo's perspective there aren't enough scum without mark to make a scum team. Therefore one of me or laserguy is probably scum. But mpolo hasn't come to this conclusion yet haha.


I actually literally came to that conclusion 6 posts above your post.

My thought on Mark is that if he is town, he is likely a power role. His seeming sheeping of BoomFrog could just indicate "best town read" and possibly even "recipient of a fruit", if he is actually the fruit vendor. If that is the case, then BoomFrog has an airtight reason to trust Mark, assuming the jimbob strategy was employed. In my mind, Mark is still a possible scum candidate, but the link to BoomFrog that I detected seems to be a null link, and I don't see where he is linked to anyone else.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:31 am UTC
by wam
LaserGuy wrote:That vote doesn't give me a lot of confidence :?


Self defence. I know I'm town therefore objectively any lynch other than mine is a better option.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:45 am UTC
by LaserGuy
Vote moody

Mark lynch giving me bad vibes. Happy to move back to wam if plytho wants to go that way. mpolo is okay too.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:59 am UTC
by jimbobmacdoodle
I'm somewhat concerned Mark won't be around to claim before deadline, due to his inactivity (now 2 and a half days since his last post), so it looks like moody is the best shout:

Unvote
Vote moody

L-2, I believe? I think moody, and probably Mark too, should claim.

I'm not interested in lynching anybody outside my bottom 4 of {Mark, wam, moody, mpolo}.

I will try to find time to do a brief moody buddy analysis, as well as a Mark one before deadline, in case either means there can't be any buddies.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:30 am UTC
by LaserGuy
Need to sign off. Will try to check in at some point tomorrow morning if I can.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:55 am UTC
by plytho
I'm freaking out a little because Mark, wam and moody all seem way too lynchable.

I think all three of them should claim.

Another concern: If mark is modkilled we're at mylo.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:57 am UTC
by jimbobmacdoodle
plytho wrote:Another concern: If mark is modkilled we're at mylo.
So, Mark is town?

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:00 am UTC
by plytho
In the worst case scenario. If mark is town and we mislynch moody or wam the game could be over tonight.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:26 am UTC
by plytho
So, yeah, I think I'm going to stick with Mark. I think he's scum but I'm not confident enough to risk game-end over it. It's pretty clear Mark can't keep up with the game while he's abroad so replacement or modkill seem very likely. Modkill more so than replacement. I'm personally against a zombie replacement at this stage of the game (N1 is fine but after that not so much) and I get the feeling there aren't any replacement candidates hanging around in gojoe.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:53 am UTC
by wam
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
plytho wrote:Another concern: If mark is modkilled we're at mylo.
So, Mark is town?


That slip is making me doubt my plytho read.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:54 am UTC
by jimbobmacdoodle
I'm not sure I see your logic plytho. If Mark is scum, which your vote implies you believe him to be, then a modkill is beneficial to town. If Mark is town, then a Mark lynch is also not good. What you are implying is that you believe both of Mark and whoever you think will be lynched (i.e. wam or moody) are town. Which is directly contradicted by your actions.

IGMEOY plytho (I'd usually FoS at this time, but everything else about your play is so townie!).

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:55 am UTC
by plytho
Hmm, wam's position on Mark feels pretty hedged:
wam wrote:I can see the mark case but it could easily be scum pushing an easy mis lynch on a quiet newbie town.


wam wrote:As others have said my reads this game have been awful so I'm going to go with my gut. It says boom, jimbob and one of moody/ Mark.


Answering jimbob on who his second choice would be:
wam wrote:I think it's Mark but that's more a lynch all lurkers stance than anything else.


On the actual Mark vote:
wam wrote:Self defence. I know I'm town therefore objectively any lynch other than mine is a better option.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:04 am UTC
by plytho
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm not sure I see your logic plytho. If Mark is scum, which your vote implies you believe him to be, then a modkill is beneficial to town. If Mark is town, then a Mark lynch is also not good.
It's not good, but it's better than the modkill.

town mark: lynch: bad (4:3) modkill potentially good (4:2) or terrible (3:3)
scum mark: lynch: good (5:2) modkill potentially great (5:1) or good (4:2)

I'm trying to make sure we avoid terrible.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:32 am UTC
by plytho
Unofficial Votals:

moody7277 (3) : BoomFrog, LaserGuy, jimbobmacdoodle
Mark_Cangila (3) : moody7277, plytho, wam

Not Voting (3) : Madge, Mark_Cangila, mpolo

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to hammer.

@wam: still voting in self-defense?

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:35 am UTC
by plytho
Also, your self-defense defense was overly defensive.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:02 pm UTC
by BoomFrog
I can see plytho's logic. He's essentially saying if Mark is town then we are at MYLO and should "No Lynch". If Mark is scum we should lynch him. So either way that's the correct choice. However,

I'm still okay with zombie replacements.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:19 pm UTC
by moody7277
Oh, boy! My favorite part of the game, when everyone decides whatever little pieces of supposed scumminess have added up to a lynchable amount. :roll: I've been open about my motivations, so anything I could say now would be repeating myself.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:23 pm UTC
by mpolo
Plytho's argument about the result of lynching Mark is actually pretty compelling. I wish we had a clear idea of whether a replacement or modkill is likely, though, so that we don't have to go with tactical voting.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:40 pm UTC
by plytho
moody7277 wrote: I've been open about my motivations, so anything I could say now would be repeating myself.
So, no claim?

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:45 pm UTC
by moody7277
plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote: I've been open about my motivations, so anything I could say now would be repeating myself.
So, no claim?


Well, that wouldn't be repeating myself. I'm vanilla townie.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:47 pm UTC
by plytho
Hmm, I think mpolo's opening post violates sungura's no-lying rule if he's scum. The ignorance in that post also doesn't really match with pre-game chat (although that could be faked.)

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:53 pm UTC
by Madge
Thanks Plytho for pointing out the implications of me getting confused about setups, that’s really fascinating! And I am kind of embarrassed I didn’t think of it.

I’m glad people seem to be moving away from Mark, but I personally am on the side of voting lurkers out so that we only have to pick between high posters in the endgame - not that that means that I think Mark should be voted off, mind. Just that it’s the policy I tend to prefer.

@mpolo, BoomFrog: if you don’t see anyone linked to Mark, who do you see linked together? Why is plytho finding me townie not just evidence that plytho is my scumbuddy?

Mark should definitely claim. I don’t think anyone else should though (except our next most viable voteoff candidate)

About to go to bed, not going to be online at deadline because it’s 3am.

@BoomFrog: I want to sheep plytho but I am not voting for Mark, so I guess there’s only one option for me:

vote: moody

In the words of many a survivor juror, “this is not a vote for moody, this is a vote against mark” (except unlike the survivor final tribal council, you DON’T want to see your name on the parchment, but I digress)

Why is LaserGuy townie? Just good posting? Or just the extremely wonderful personal anecdotes?!

I don’t think plytho’s slip is scumslip because it’s the sort of thing I can see myself saying by accident: then again maybe because I’m careful I’m not the sort of person who would say something like that by accident, so perhaps it’s all null. :|

Meta: I’ll keep playing during my holiday but expect 1-2 sentence phone posts once a day, given my inability to scumhunt it’s probably not going to ruin me as much as it’d ruin others. I’d prefer to get replaced though for obvious reasons and also for “may not have reliable internet” reasons.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:54 pm UTC
by Madge
unvote

Just realised moody was at L-1 and I don't want to allow "early" hammer

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:54 pm UTC
by Madge
was at L-1 with my vote I mean. Just in case that wasn't obvious. Gah! I promised myself I wouldn't double post and now I've triple posted. Oh well, I guess the greyhound is officially at the station :|

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:08 pm UTC
by moody7277
Madge wrote:Mark should definitely claim. I don’t think anyone else should though (except our next most viable voteoff candidate)


And if we don't hear from Mark for the rest of D3?

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:17 pm UTC
by LaserGuy
I have no time. Will trust plytho on this one.

Vote: Mark

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:25 pm UTC
by jimbobmacdoodle
I think that puts Mark at L-1 and moody at L-2, with Madge pencilled in on moody, but unlikely to actually vote.

Unvote

So that Madge can vote for Moody safely.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:26 pm UTC
by jimbobmacdoodle
EBWOP: Just realised that LaserGuy unvoted moody indirectly...

Vote moody

Unofficial Votals:

moody7277 (2) : BoomFrog, jimbobmacdoodle
Mark_Cangila (4) : moody7277, plytho, wam, LaserGuy

Not Voting (3) : Madge, Mark_Cangila, mpolo

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to hammer.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:39 pm UTC
by plytho
@jimbob: do you see my logic now?

@wam: please respond:
plytho wrote:@wam: still voting in self-defense?


wam wrote:That slip is making me doubt my plytho read.
Why?

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:48 pm UTC
by wam
@Plytho still at work but should be home to read and respond before deadline

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:52 pm UTC
by jimbobmacdoodle
plytho wrote:@jimbob: do you see my logic now?
Which logic are you referring to?

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:58 pm UTC
by plytho
plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm not sure I see your logic plytho. If Mark is scum, which your vote implies you believe him to be, then a modkill is beneficial to town. If Mark is town, then a Mark lynch is also not good.
It's not good, but it's better than the modkill.

town mark: lynch: bad (4:3) modkill potentially good (4:2) or terrible (3:3)
scum mark: lynch: good (5:2) modkill potentially great (5:1) or good (4:2)

I'm trying to make sure we avoid terrible.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:14 pm UTC
by jimbobmacdoodle
plytho wrote:
plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm not sure I see your logic plytho. If Mark is scum, which your vote implies you believe him to be, then a modkill is beneficial to town. If Mark is town, then a Mark lynch is also not good.
It's not good, but it's better than the modkill.

town mark: lynch: bad (4:3) modkill potentially good (4:2) or terrible (3:3)
scum mark: lynch: good (5:2) modkill potentially great (5:1) or good (4:2)

I'm trying to make sure we avoid terrible.
Right. Haven't had enough chance to think about it. I think the logic is sound enough, although my main concern is not the logic itself, but more the way you've gone about acting around it. At work now, will try to think about it more on the way home.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:08 pm UTC
by wam
Jimbob point agrees with my thinking too.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:14 pm UTC
by bessie
bessie was about to rejoin the conversation when she glanced down at her phone and saw the message in all caps: WHEN ARE YOU COMING TO WORK? She ignored the message and recounted the votes.


Official Votals:

moody7277 (2) : BoomFrog, jimbobmacdoodle
Mark_Cangila (4) : moody7277, plytho, wam, LaserGuy

Not Voting (3) : Madge, Mark_Cangila, mpolo

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to hammer.

Deadline is Wednesday 8PM GMT+1

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:15 pm UTC
by plytho
wam wrote:Jimbob point agrees with my thinking too.
I'd really like you to elaborate.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:33 pm UTC
by wam
Your logic of avoiding the terrible option makes sense however getting there seemed to be some.odd steps for a townie.

Having thought about it more I don't think it's a scum.slip just an odd bit of logic.

On a side note i prefer a mark lynch to a moody lynch. So will leave my vote where it is.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:45 pm UTC
by plytho
You're talking about something else now. The slip and the logic are separate things. I applied no logic when you called it a slip.

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:20 pm UTC
by jimbobmacdoodle
@everyone - if you received a fruit that according to the D2 plan makes Mark the vendor, you really should claim!

plytho wrote:I think he's scum but I'm not confident enough to risk game-end over it.
Going back over the plytho logic, this bit of his post is the most concerning. If you think Mark is scum, lynching him is the logical course of action, as we can't guarantee a modkill. Indeed I'm opposed on principal on relying on modkill to influence the game, regardless of alignment. However, I think your logic does ultimately make sense otherwise (i.e.the conclusion is sound, if not the steps taken to get there). I do still want to review possible Mark buddy partners.

BoomFrog (?) made an interesting point about No Lynch, since that is the usual course of action in MYLO. I think this is only a reasonable course of action if we're pretty confident Mark is town and is going to be modkill. I'm not confident on either point.