Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (N5)

[LaserGuy]

I have no idea. Something that looks townie and probably a GF I guess. I'm struggling to find any scenarios that make sense with the data we have.

[bessie]

Other than that I can mainly offer wine but people familiar with my meta should be able to see the truth in it: scum!me (who is importantly not GF) never starts the game with this post.

Hmm, seems that I already made a meta read of you saying that you asking people to target you in your first post was unlikely from scum (mafia or cult). And interestingly, you used my Sabrar-meta-read to make a scum read of me. On D1, my read that you would never make that post as mafia or cult was a major point against me, a huge red sign. But now, on D4, you say my D1 read was correct, and . . . so is it no longer a sure sign that I am scum or what?

Could we have an anti-town survivor? I.e. only wants to survive, has no kill, but town loses if he/she survives?

Why not a serial killer that has been withholding while we pick each other off?

Ninja'd by LaserGuy while I was typing this up. I think #2 and #3 are unlikely, but will consider them. Really I think its's #1 or Sabrar is an anti-town independent that has been playing survivor since D1.

Ninja'd again.

[LaserGuy]

I guess a variant on 3) would be a cult that can only ever have two members at a time.

[Sabrar]

1. There is a difference in how you react to a gambit and what reads do you draw from it later.
2. From here:

Made another error in this:

BTW I made a mistake with my last setup-speculation, 7-1-1-1 adds up to 10 players only, meant to type 7-1-1-1-1. I find it interesting that noone noticed and corrected. It suggests to me that some players didn't really care about actual setup-numbers and just said that my numbers look okay to appear being helpful. I bet we find scum in {bessie, moody, Vicarin, wam}.

I never said your numbers look OK.

Because you're calling it an error it implies that you actually noticed it which you deny later here. This was the reason I reconsidered,

[bessie]

I already explained this. I think you may be misunderstanding some of the nuances in my choice of language.

1. You made a typo in your setup numbers.
2. I posted my setup spec of 8/2/1.
3. I copied all the setup numbers that had been posted. I was in a hurry and didn’t even look at them. I did not say any of the numbers looked ok because in my mind, they weren’t. I already decided the setup was 8/2/1.
4. You made a mistake in this post when you said that I said that your numbers looked ok. I never said your numbers looked ok. You were correct when you said I didn’t care about your setup numbers. I didn’t. I had already decided the setup was 8/2/1.
5. I pointed out your misinterpretation in my reads list.
6. You decided to scum read me for missing the typo in your first post, even though you acknowledge my earlier explanation:

I think this either comes from the fact that she paid less attention to the actual numbers because she already had a pretty good idea, or from the second point I'm about to discuss.

7. Here’s my reply, where I give a detailed explanation how you are misinterpreting me. This is where I realize that my writing style may be one of the issues. I use a lot of nuances and I imply things without saying them directly, and when I write it I think I’m being clever, but sometimes I later realize that I wasn’t clever at all, I was just unclear. moody’s commented on this aspect of my style before but I just searched three games and I can’t find it and I’m not going to waste anymore time searching.

1. There is a difference in how you react to a gambit and what reads do you draw from it later.

Ok in this post you conclude that my reaction was scummy, but this is based on your mistake that I was just going along with your numbers and said they were ok, which is the same reason I jumped on wam on page 1. I never said your numbers were ok, and I wasn’t going along, I didn’t even look at your numbers, I did not sheep you as wam did. Read the post linked in #7 again.

So returning to my second post on this page, you scum read me for not scum reading you. And now you claim that my reason for not scum reading you is fact valid.

I’ve been pondering your content. Everything fits with survivor quite well. Your D1 (and continuing) detachment. Your support of the wam lynch. You choosing the wrong fish bowl (I have in my notes somewhere the place on D2 I felt you knew I was the real cop but I can’t find it). But your content also fits with serial killer that decided to withhold on D1 and play the role of survivor. And why not withhold? This game would almost certainly have cop-, tracker-, and watcher-type powers. And role cop is unlikely to out you.

LaserGuy, I’m still pondering setup ideas, and why Vicarin’s faction is hidden.

I wish real Sabrar were here to help me figure this out instead of decoy Sabrar.

You should be getting your wish. 100% town Sabrar needs to find the possible other anti-town faction because decoy Sabrar is in danger of being lynched.

And town!BoomFrog needs to post and answer LaserGuy’s question.

[Sabrar]

4. You made a mistake in this post when you said that I said that your numbers looked ok.

This is the part that is incorrect or partially incorrect and likely the main issue of our continuing adversities (which I believe is side-lining us). I didn't say that you specifically said my numbers were correct, I made a general statement reflecting to these posts:

I think some of the more exotic suggestions by Sabrar are more likely

but Sabrar's numbers seem not too crazy?

Numbers suggested look reasonable to me.

But your content also fits with serial killer that decided to withhold on D1 and play the role of survivor. And why not withhold? This game would almost certainly have cop-, tracker-, and watcher-type powers.

Ok, indulge me. I'm SK, so I 'know' that scum-team has only two members because 7-3-1 with 2 NK-s is unfair to Town (I know you might disagree but it's how I think and here it's the only thing that matters). Therefore on N3 I know there would be no other kill so I can safely kill and pretend that scum-team had 3 members. mpolo can't jail me again, Madge trusts me, BoomFrog voted so can't use his power. Mark watched you N2 so probably can't target you again. This is the ideal night to kill you because I can't risk being copped as I'm not GF. Why are you then alive?

And why not withhold? This game would almost certainly have cop-, tracker-, and watcher-type powers.

The first part (referring to cop-like powers) makes absolutely no sense if I'm not GF, which I'm not. The second part only makes sense if I'm not Ninja and don't want to be caught. But then I have to ask you: what is my actual power besides Bulletproof? What would give me the same kind of chance as a 2-player scum-team?

This is what I mean when I say I'm almost mechanically confirmed because there is simply no reasonable set of abilities that I could possess as scum here that would explain the complete lack of any actions. I've been trying hard not to be depressed about my chances for a while but since the last 4 Survivor-claims have all been lynched despite 75% of them being genuine (Dollhouse, Pen Pal, Diablo, X-men) I'm not exactly optimistic.

I can also offer a mathematical reason why you should not lynch me but it relies on you accepting the fact that I cannot be SK so I doubt it would persuade you.

[bessie]

4. You made a mistake in this post when you said that I said that your numbers looked ok.

This is the part that is incorrect or partially incorrect and likely the main issue of our continuing adversities (which I believe is side-lining us). I didn't say that you specifically said my numbers were correct, I made a general statement reflecting to these posts:

Then why was my name in your scum pool?

Ok, indulge me.

How could I ever refuse?

For the purposes of this discussion, let’s assume 8 town, 2 mafia on the same team, and 1 serial killer.

D1 you decide to play as survivor. Cop result on you must be “not-town” or “not-mafia” or “indie”, any would support a survivor claim.

And why not withhold? This game would almost certainly have cop-, tracker-, and watcher-type powers.

The first part (referring to cop-like powers) makes absolutely no sense if I'm not GF, which I'm not. The second part only makes sense if I'm not Ninja and don't want to be caught. But then I have to ask you: what is my actual power besides Bulletproof? What would give me the same kind of chance as a 2-player scum-team?

Random thoughts.
1. SK would have night kill. This is a strong “power” in itself.
2. Bulletproof is reasonable power for survivor or SK. Commuter would be better, and can’t be ruled out by night results. Note also Vicarin thought you could be commuter, which is why I suspected wam tried to kill you N1.
3. Cop results in this game are “town” and “not-town” (though a bigger advantage for you would have been “mafia” and “not-mafia”). And we have miller so the cop-power in this game sucks anyway.
4. I’m wondering if moody’s ter’angreal was a power that jimbob wrote and substituted for one of the player submissions. Passing the ter’angreal could be a potential ninja-like kill for you, especially since there’s an actual ninja in the game that the kill could be blamed on later if your kill target was also targeted by LaserGuy (depends on how the game unravels).
5. Your last sentence is a totally invalid reason. What does fair and equal have to do with anything? There are games with mafia and SK where SK’s only power is his kill so it is not unheard of (Shakespeare 1 mafia). Really is it totally unreasonable to think that a SK has a chance of winning based on player skill, not powers?

I'm SK, so I 'know' that scum-team has only two members because 7-3-1 with 2 NK-s is unfair to Town (I know you might disagree but it's how I think and here it's the only thing that matters). Therefore on N3 I know there would be no other kill so I can safely kill and pretend that scum-team had 3 members. mpolo can't jail me again, Madge trusts me, BoomFrog voted so can't use his power. Mark watched you N2 so probably can't target you again. This is the ideal night to kill you because I can't risk being copped as I'm not GF. Why are you then alive?

I’ve been wondering why I’m alive since D2.

mpolo announced he would target BoomFrog, so he has to do it regardless of his alignment. Madge trusting you is irrelevant. If she blocks you it would still fit with your survivor claim. LaserGuy can target me N3.

This is what I mean when I say I'm almost mechanically confirmed because there is simply no reasonable set of abilities that I could possess as scum here that would explain the complete lack of any actions.

Insert obligatory reference to Monstrous Masquerade Mafia here.

I can also offer a mathematical reason why you should not lynch me but it relies on you accepting the fact that I cannot be SK so I doubt it would persuade you.

I don’t necessarily think we should lynch you. But I don’t do (or more accurately trust) my gut/meta reads. I need something more than gut on my pick for third mafia.

[Sabrar]

Then why was my name in your scum pool?

Because you also didn't notice my mistake and you usually pay close attention to setup-spec. Is it really that hard to see?

1. SK would have night kill. This is a strong “power” in itself.

Mafia has also NK plus 2 powers apiece (you can argue for 1.5 as Ninja + Strongman can't be used on same night).

Commuter would be better, and can’t be ruled out by night results.

This is testable. Have Mark and LaserGuy target me tonight. At least it would fulfill a part of my secondary win-con. Also you know I didn't commute N2 as I knew mpolo's flavor for jailing. Also I received the ter'angreal tonight so I didn't commute N4 either. So wam role-copping me N2 and not getting result doesn't hold up btw.

5. Your last sentence is a totally invalid reason. What does fair and equal have to do with anything?

I would guess that jimbob would at least try to balance the factions. It's what I would do anyway (see Dollhouse and Dark Tower for SK protection).

mpolo announced he would target BoomFrog, so he has to do it regardless of his alignment. Madge trusting you is irrelevant. If she blocks you it would still fit with your survivor claim. LaserGuy can target me N3.

I wouldn't care about LaserGuy, it doesn't matter if he gets a result of 'bessie was NK-d'. Rest is irrelevant as it doesn't invalidate my point at all.

I’ve been wondering why I’m alive since D2.

My guess is GF. Either BoomFrog is 3rd scum (and I still don't know why he couldn't be) or we have non-killing anti-town indie somewhere.

[bessie]

A serial killer that could commute or kill every night would be outrageously powerful. I envisioned it as 1 shot commuter, which you could have used N1. This would fit with wam’s strongman failing on you N1, and also with your desire to be copped N1. This would not explain your knowledge that you were the N1 kill target, but like, what was scum going to do, contradict you? But it also doesn’t explain your apparent anxiety early D2 over who I copped.

I would guess that jimbob would at least try to balance the factions. It's what I would do anyway (see Dollhouse and Dark Tower for SK protection).

You are not following me. I’m arguing that SK with no additional power is not necessarily unbalanced, for an experienced skilled player. This is not the right time or place to make this type of meta read, but I think there are a few players in this game with a reasonable chance of pulling it off (and admittedly a few that probably couldn’t).

And you’ve got to stop with the “this is the way I would do it so it is the most logical and only acceptable way to play” thing. We’re not all Deep Thought. Some of us are Ford Prefect and we don’t always plan things out as well as we should and we get stranded on Earth for fifteen years.

I wouldn't care about LaserGuy, it doesn't matter if he gets a result of 'bessie was NK-d'.

You’re right I was mixing up voyeur with watcher. So I guess your reason for not killing me N3 would be because you hope I will tunnel BoomFrog and/or Madge and ignore you (possible, but those two were going to be under heavy scrutiny D4 regardless of whether I was alive or dead). Or because you would miss me if I were gone [/sarcasm].

Everyone else is welcome to post too.

[bessie]

I’ve been wondering why I’m alive since D2.

My guess is GF. Either BoomFrog is 3rd scum (and I still don't know why he couldn't be) or we have non-killing anti-town indie somewhere.

Godfather!BoomFrog doesn’t care if I am alive or dead. My flip does nothing extra to help him. The danger is if I’m insane which implicates BoomFrog and LaserGuy, but this is not possible with your claim. Same applies to GodFather!LaserGuy, who wouldn’t care if I flip sane town cop. If I’m sane, it would be more incentive to kill me because I would keep clearing town. So if we have GF it’s more likely someone still waiting to be cleared. Oh wait, GF!BoomFrog would need another cop to be cleared because of uncertainty around wam’s N1 redirect. So he can kill me tonight. Or we just circle around to I'm alive because I'm not a threat to the remaining scum because my reads suck or something.

[Mark_Cangila]

Um.... I sorta forgot to use my power last night..... I didn't know how to use it on. I'm sorry.

[Sabrar]

I envisioned it as 1 shot commuter, which you could have used N1. This would fit with wam’s strongman failing on you N1, and also with your desire to be copped N1.

This is just you extrapolating from stuff. Why would I want to be copped specifically N1 to get a non-result, if then I will probably be copped again? I actually didn't want to be copped at all but I coldn't ask for that specifically now could I?

But it also doesn’t explain your apparent anxiety early D2 over who I copped.

Again this is just in your mind. That was curiosity and not anxiety, stemming from a non sequitur on your part.

And you’ve got to stop with the “this is the way I would do it so it is the most logical and only acceptable way to play” thing.

You know I won't. Though to be honest this was in part a deliberate attempt to needle you. I'm entitled to my fun.

[mpolo]

Because of the flavor that wall was not a true traitor, despite being anti-town with a kill, I'm pretty set on there being a third faction. If Sabrar is that third faction, it was 8-2-1 at start. The argument by between Sabrar and bessie has me thinking we actually had a 7-2-1-1 setup, with Boomfrog or Madge as bad guy.

I note that Mark_Caniglia made a somewhat unusual post in not mentioning his night result - did something happen there? (He said he didn't target, but didn't mention anything else.. and a claimed "no action"person did get a result in that situation.)

[mpolo]

s/wall/wam/

[Sabrar]

Oh wait. You claim to have jailed Mark, your action is loud but he doesn't claim being blocked just that he forgot to use it. Ok, there's definitely something fishy there.

@Mark: what flavor did you receive if any?

[bessie]

Um.... I sorta forgot to use my power last night..... I didn't know how to use it on. I'm sorry.

That’s all right Mark. We understand that you are possibly overwhelmed. And the content level for this game has been quite high. Did you receive any messages, or did anyone try to give you anything last night?

I envisioned it as 1 shot commuter, which you could have used N1. This would fit with wam’s strongman failing on you N1, and also with your desire to be copped N1.

This is just you extrapolating from stuff. Why would I want to be copped specifically N1 to get a non-result, if then I will probably be copped again? I actually didn't want to be copped at all but I coldn't ask for that specifically now could I?

1. How am I extrapolating? You asked to be targeted in your first post.
2. Scum probably wouldn’t request to be copped, so it might buy you some townie cred. And there are other reasons a cop result on you might fail, especially if multiple players targeted you (jail, bus driver, etc).
3. Well, you sort of did.

But it also doesn’t explain your apparent anxiety early D2 over who I copped.

Again this is just in your mind. That was curiosity and not anxiety, stemming from a non sequitur on your part.

It is not just in my mind. I can read. Your tone in these two posts seemed a bit different from those on the previous page, when you thought Vicarin was a cop and he targeted Madge. You’re the one being illogical, it makes sense to me. I was going to point to the post times,...but,... sigh, don’t you ever sleep?

[Sabrar]

1. How am I extrapolating? You asked to be targeted in your first post.

Cop should obviously check scummy players, not target me because secondary win-con. That was not a request to be copped, unless Cop decides to play suboptimally.

3. Well, you sort of did.

I was trying to help town, Madge seemed to have an actual in-game ability that needed her to be targeted, my priorities were secondary to that. I could not have known she would claim this at the beginning of D1. Why do you feel the need to twist everything I say into your specific pov instead of analyzing why it actually happened?

I was going to point to the post times,...but,... sigh, don’t you ever sleep?

Rarely.

[bessie]

1. How am I extrapolating? You asked to be targeted in your first post.

Cop should obviously check scummy players, not target me because secondary win-con. That was not a request to be copped, unless Cop decides to play suboptimally.

Interesting. Because in retrospect, targeting you N1 wouldn’t have been sub optimal at all. You would have been outed as non-town on D2, and you may have been lynched early in the game when we could afford a mislynch. Or, if we believed your survivor claim and didn’t lynch you, real Sabrar, not decoy Sabrar, might have started playing on D2 instead of D5.

Why do you feel the need to twist everything I say into your specific pov instead of analyzing why it actually happened?

I am analyzing. You should know by now that I’m too stubborn to be forcibly persuaded. The best way to persuade me is to give me information so I can work it out for myself.

[See X-Men page 13, previously linked in this game once already.]

[Sabrar]

Because in retrospect, targeting you N1 wouldn’t have been sub optimal at all.

In retrospect, obviously. However when I made that request (or even per the game-state as of N1) it would have been suboptimal for a Cop to decide his/her target based on that request so your argument here is irrelevant.

[bessie]

I did almost cop you, partly because of this, partly because other reasons. I switched targets halfway through N1. Thank BoomFrog for being BoomFrog. Really, you were going to ignore Vicarin’s anti-town D1 content because he claimed cop? There are two claims that are strong enough to get someone out of a lynch and Vicarin picked one of them. You know this, and I confirmed you know it with my question here, your response here.

Speaking of BoomFrog.........it would be nice if he posted.

[Sabrar]

Really, you were going to ignore Vicarin’s anti-town D1 content because he claimed cop?

Given the little irl time I had to process things, yes. We've mislynched town quite a few times in most of our previous games and I often led the lynch on them even while I was town myself. Having perceived anti-town content D1 (or even later) is not the sure indicator you believe it to be.

[LaserGuy]

Here's vaguely what I'm thinking...

-Lynch Sabrar today. If game continues, bessie cops Mark
-No lynch D6 if Mark gives Town result. bessie cops mpolo.
-If we have all Town results, PoE lynch everyone except bessie.

[Sabrar]

If you're going purely by PoE you might as well help me win as well...

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Votals:

Not voting: Everybody

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline will be Wednesday 29th August, 7pm UTC. Deadline timer.

[bessie]

Really, you were going to ignore Vicarin’s anti-town D1 content because he claimed cop?

Given the little irl time I had to process things, yes. We've mislynched town quite a few times in most of our previous games and I often led the lynch on them even while I was town myself. Having perceived anti-town content D1 (or even later) is not the sure indicator you believe it to be.

If you didn’t see what was wrong with his D1 content I don’t even. Or maybe you did. I can’t 100% trust anything you say.

@LaserGuy, Sabrar’s logic is sound in that if he had a kill available on N3, he should have killed me, I can’t see any reason for him not to. And my arrogant, overconfident, egotistical self will be crushed if we have a cult recruiter. Of everyone that is alive, well their early content feels townie (except Sabrar and BoomFrog), I think we might have a mafia supporter that maybe didn't even know they were mafia until Vicarin died (like me in Crossover).

Still thinking but if BoomFrog’s town, I just don’t know yet.

[Sabrar]

I think we might have a mafia supporter that maybe didn't even know they were mafia until Vicarin died (like me in Crossover).

You were converted in Crossover and not determined from the start due to your role to join mafia. The role you describe would be pretty bastard, you hunt for scum to the best of your abilities, possibly get them lynched and then suddenly you're forced to join the losing side.

[bessie]

The role you describe would be pretty bastard, you hunt for scum to the best of your abilities, possibly get them lynched and then suddenly you're forced to join the losing side.

Yes it is. Unfortunately, it’s within the scope of the game. It’s predetermined, but in its core is it any more bastard than cult, or silversmith, or any other win-condition changing role? And I agree that it’s not a fun role, and so have others in the past. There’s a reason cult games are so unpopular on this forum, and mods are expected to advertise games with win-condition changing roles as bastard games. Because it’s not fun to be converted after you’ve given all you have to a game (or like with Crossover, more than I had, as I was spending hours every night on that game, and I was also taking care of a dying lady after work whose family had moved away, and there was a wildfire in my area that ended up burning down over a dozen homes within a mile and a half of my house, and I would have much preferred to lose with Evil George Washington and the team to which I had given so much of myself). Even before I was playing and still just lurking I remember people not liking this mechanic, I think there was a game where Madge announced that cult shouldn’t recruit her because she wouldn’t help them win or something like that, and another game where Vytron was arguing that dimochka should have been playing toward the cult win condition even before he was recruited because it was inevitable, I could be misremembering. Anyway, where was I? Yes, I don’t like win-condition changing mechanics. No I don’t think they’re fun. But with only one game running at a time we don’t have a lot of choice, just “play” or “don’t play”. And I just spent a half hour ranting when I should have been on my way to work. It’s 8 am Pacific time so hopefully BoomFrog will make a post while I’m away. I typed up all my current setup theories just waiting for BoomFrog’s claim and for Mark to answer the questions directed at him.

[mpolo]

My biggest win was after being recruited by the seat eaters in Harry Potter, but I do agree with your general sentiment. I'm getting down to very few possible targets for my action tonight as well.

I still think the flavor implies a third faction. If a Mafia member isn't a true traitor, then who is?

[mpolo]

Blasted phone. Death eaters, of course.

[BoomFrog]

I was camping all weekend. I didn't think ahead enough to warn you guys before night. Sorry.

I can also offer a mathematical reason why you should not lynch me but it relies on you accepting the fact that I cannot be SK so I doubt it would persuade you.

I'm still interested in this.

scum!me (who is importantly not GF) never starts the game with this post.

As survivor that post was still exceptionally reckless. Why make it?

@BoomFrog, why did you pass the ter'angrael to Sabrar?

I roleblocked him, and felt the ter'angreal targeting was mostly irrelevant, but still mandatory. At best I hoped you would target Sabrar to check on me and this would give confirmation of your power.

I have a totally unexpected town result on BoomFrog.

I really have no idea if this is sarcasm.

Scummy
Boomfrog

@mpolo: You never answered my question. Did you think I was Cult Leader or 3rd Mafia?

[LaserGuy]

Really, you were going to ignore Vicarin’s anti-town D1 content because he claimed cop?

Given the little irl time I had to process things, yes. We've mislynched town quite a few times in most of our previous games and I often led the lynch on them even while I was town myself. Having perceived anti-town content D1 (or even later) is not the sure indicator you believe it to be.

If you didn’t see what was wrong with his D1 content I don’t even. Or maybe you did. I can’t 100% trust anything you say.

@LaserGuy, Sabrar’s logic is sound in that if he had a kill available on N3, he should have killed me, I can’t see any reason for him not to. And my arrogant, overconfident, egotistical self will be crushed if we have a cult recruiter. Of everyone that is alive, well their early content feels townie (except Sabrar and BoomFrog)

I agree that Sabrar is probably not withholding SK. But that isn't the only option I'm thinking about right now, see here, here. Considering the remaining powers that we see, I don't really see a place for an SK in this setup... in fact, a single scum non-aligned with Vic/wam seems unlikely.

What I'm mostly thinking here is:
1) If Sabrar is survivor, there's a danger of him voting against Town in a parity situation. Sabrar has more or less indicated in previous games that he considers that the optimal play for survivor to take if the situation presents itself (see: Shakespeare, Diablo).
2) There's a chance that Sabrar is not survivor but non-Town of another faction
3) I kind of want to lynch the person with the ter'angrael to take that out of play since that is one of the things that is outstanding that worries me. BoomFrog immediately dismissing its significance here kind of pings me, but I'm suspicious of pretty much everything BoomFrog says at this point.

I think we might have a mafia supporter that maybe didn't even know they were mafia until Vicarin died (like me in Crossover).

Mafia supporter is possible, though I doubt the latter. I'm assuming that anyone who is recruited would not automatically be made a godfather because that's awful and bastard, though.

Given flavor clues I'm still leaning toward a second faction, though exactly how that would fit with the players/abilities we have left is hard to see unless there's a recruit of some kind in the cards.

I can confirm Mark was targeted by mpolo, btw.

[Sabrar]

As survivor that post was still exceptionally reckless. Why make it?

I had a BP and was also hoping for this to occur to people. Calculated gambit, plus it just might help me achieve my second win-con.

I can also offer a mathematical reason why you should not lynch me but it relies on you accepting the fact that I cannot be SK so I doubt it would persuade you.

I'm still interested in this.

Basically if we accept that there is no killing power in the game then Town wins nothing by lynching me first because you will be in the same situation the next day, having to find actual scum. You can always lynch me in the final three if I still cannot convince you (or if I'm actually scum from your pov).

[Sabrar]

1) If Sabrar is survivor, there's a danger of him voting against Town in a parity situation. Sabrar has more or less indicated in previous games that he considers that the optimal play for survivor to take if the situation presents itself (see: Shakespeare, Diablo).

What I talked about in previous games is that mafia can blackmail Survivor into voting with them, otherwise Survivor gets nk-d. This obviously doesn't apply in games where no nk remains. But yes, the danger is there, except you won't gain any advantage by lynching me because you will have to find the actual scum after.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Votals:

Not voting: Everybody

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline will be Wednesday 29th August, 7pm UTC, a little over 48 hours from now. Deadline timer.

[mpolo]

Scummy
Boomfrog

@mpolo: You never answered my question. Did you think I was Cult Leader or 3rd Mafia?

Definitely a separate faction, whose exact nature was unclear. At that point I was pretty worried about cult, but other possibilities had not been ruled out.

[BoomFrog]

I've been suspicious of mpolo being overly willing to go with whatever lynch others suggest without scrutiny. Especially considering we thought we were at MYLO/LYLO and any "general consensus" is likely to be scum led.

Spoiler:

LaserGuy's case against Boomfrog is quite convincing. (More convincing than Vicarin would have been without that argument.) Enough that I will:

Unvote
Vote: Boomfrog

I guess I'm going with scummy power.

Vote: Madge

However, reviewing his posts I do see some indication that he is actually trying to figure things out and is just lacking time and clarity.

Spoiler:

I am going on vacation tomorrow. I should be able to check in once a day, but not likely a lot more than that.

This lack of clarity is maddening. Vicarin claimed to be in the R faction, though the secondary win condition would be really nasty in that case - knowing that your only partner (?) has to go before you.

So, although I still think mpolo is the most likely to be scum, I still find it unlikely. I think we should lynch Sabrar and I'll roleblock mpolo, he doesn't have any useful targets left anyway. I'm a tiny bit worried that his goal is to have "interrogated" every living player or something like that. But it's much more likely Sabrar is just some sort of kill-less scum and hopefully my roleblock can prevent that theoretical scum!mpolo objective.

[Mark_Cangila]

@Mark: what flavor did you receive if any?

I was told I sat down to talk about the situation (the game) and afterwards I was tired, and went straight to sleep. No other messages.

I was thinking about NLing. There seems to be no NK, and no cult. If we NL we get a chance to cop more people. But if NK is waiting we die. Painfully.

[bessie]

Quick responses, I just got home.

I have a totally unexpected town result on BoomFrog.

I really have no idea if this is sarcasm.

It’s not. There. Now you can be all outwardly indignant and offended with me me me for not trusting you, and all secretly pleased that you’re so difficult to read.

BoomFrog, does Sabrar’s description of the ter’angreal match yours?

Given flavor clues I'm still leaning toward a second faction, though exactly how that would fit with the players/abilities we have left is hard to see unless there's a recruit of some kind in the cards.

My night result flavor was a little different from previous night result flavor messages. I would dismiss it as just flavor, but if you think it might be important I'll share.

Basically if we accept that there is no killing power in the game then Town wins nothing by lynching me first because you will be in the same situation the next day, having to find actual scum. You can always lynch me in the final three if I still cannot convince you (or if I'm actually scum from your pov).

You are actual non-town. And you’re not currently adding any value to town, because you aren’t helping find the other scum that from your point of view must exist or the game would be over. So even if we have nothing to gain by lynching you, you’re not presenting anything to counter that we have nothing to lose.

've been suspicious of mpolo being overly willing to go with whatever lynch others suggest without scrutiny. Especially considering we thought we were at MYLO/LYLO and any "general consensus" is likely to be scum led.

Well the Madge lynch was pretty much me and LaserGuy led. Sorry Madge.


My setup theories in a bit. Let me add and absorb today’s claims.

[Sabrar]

You are actual non-town. And you’re not currently adding any value to town, because you aren’t helping find the other scum that from your point of view must exist or the game would be over. So even if we have nothing to gain by lynching you, you’re not presenting anything to counter that we have nothing to lose.

My priorities are:
1. Not get lynched.
2. Who cares?

When people start gunning for me in their opening post I have to first make sure that they at least consider the alternative of keeping me alive. As for scum-hunting I just don't know what to look for. The most likely scenario is an indie with some weird win-condition but in that case there will be no links to anyone else and they may have been legitimately scum-hunting.

[bessie]

Things I’m thinking about.

Mafia recruit (assume recruit on N3 after Vicarin died, and that recruit would cop as non-town after N3)
Mark- Possible, if he was recruited N3, didn’t get access to the kill until N4, and was blocked by mpolo.
LaserGuy- Unlikely, as no one died N4.
mpolo- Unlikely, as no one died N4.
BoomFrog- Not unless GF.
Sabrar- Possible, if he was recruited to N3, didn’t get access to the kill until N4, and was blocked by BoomFrog.

Cult (assume cop as non-town, doctor protects against rectruit, recruit can be blocked)
BoomFrog- Not CL or cult unless GF.
Sabrar- Possible CL, N1 recruited (?), N2 jailed, N3 recruited (bessie, Mark),N4 roleblocked.
LaserGuy- Not CL unless GF.
mpolo- Possible CL, N1 recruited (?), N2 recruited (Sabrar, LaserGuyMark), N3 recruited (bessie, Mark), N4 recruited (Mark, bessie, Sabrar, LaserGuy).
Mark- Possible CL, N1 targets (?), N2 targets (bessie, mpolo, LaserGuy), N3 recruited (bessie, Sabrar, mpolo, LaserGuy) N3, is jailed N4.

Could wam or Vicarin be mafia recruit? Unlikely unless the recruit was traitor from start of game, as they both had scummy powers (but note so did Madge).
Were wam or Vicarin culted? Unknown, but might account for the odd faction flips (Vicarin hidden, wam in his own faction).

Note that I didn't put a lot of thought into cult because I don't think we have one, but I try to remain open.

Sabrar (possible anti-town roles)
Sabrar- Poisoner, poisoned Madge N3 and she didn’t absorb it. Or she did absorb it, left a morbid breadcrumb, and voted because she wasn’t mediator anymore.
Sabrar poisoned someone else N3, unlikely as no one died N4.
Sabrar- Arsonist, could have doused N1 (anyone except LaserGuy, Madge, Vicarin), N3 (bessie, mpolo, Mark), N4 (bessie, mpolo, BoomFrog, LaserGuy).

My priorities are:
1. Not get lynched.
2. Who cares?

No. If you are survivor, your best chance would be to find and lynch the last remaining scum, and the game ends today. Every day the game goes on, the greater odds you will die, and the less chance you have of winning.

As for scum-hunting I just don't know what to look for.

Would that really stop you from trying anyway, if you were town, or could win with town?


Vote: Sabrar