Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

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SuicideJunkie
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:16 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
SuicideJunkie wrote:Plytho indicates wam is scummy but likely not lying.
If scum and not lying about the results, the results could be inaccurate if a miller is involved.
When I said I thought wam wasn't likely lying I didn't mean he used that power and produced accurate results. I meant he might be lying about his power and producing a result for a fake power that is still true. Specifically, scum!wam deliberately added a buddy in his "cop result" so if that buddy ever flips scum, town will be inclined to believe Wam from that point on.

I wasn't arguing that the power was real, but if it is there's no reason not to use it. Just saying that not lying doesn't mean correct. Wam wouldn't be able to account for millers or redirects or arcane powers even with mafia team knowledge.

I think we're best playing it safe this round. Mark is sketchy, but ironically, the claim pushes Wam over the edge for me.
If Wam turns out to be town, then either Mpolo or Sabrar will be looking bad given the cop results, but not as bad as MoA and Mark.

A recount gives me Wam(5) and Mark (4).

If there are no hammer objections, I'll vote Wam.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:44 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:I'm not sure why Moody seems to like wam in regards to that 'naive read town' bit, but the implication is if wam is scum, mpolo should be town.


Would you mind clarifying this line a little, specifically how I "like wam"? "Naive" was just shorthand for assuming both claims are town. I also included the other three possibilities, including the one where both are scum. Your second part of the statement is accurate in that I think it is unlikely both are scum.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:17 pm UTC

Ah, right. I probably should have seen that. Naive as in naive cop.
I was misinterpreting it as your default assumption.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:08 am UTC

As several people were out of contact for a couple of days (including the mods), I'm granting a 24 hour extension. Deadline will now be Saturday the 29th no sooner than 9pm UTC. Either dimochka or I will post a new deadline timer once we get a chance.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:44 am UTC

I'll take that as an objection and let things be.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby MasterOfAll » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:12 am UTC

I don't have anything else to say here on D2, but maybe someone else still does?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:27 am UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:I'll take that as an objection and let things be.

Indeed, there's no reason to cut off discussion. There is far from consensus.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:05 am UTC

@plytho: similar to D1 you have been focusing most of D2 on a single player. That doesn't seem familiar from previous town!you.

@BoomFrog: I had a couple questions for you here.

@LaserGuy: could you give an updated read-list, irrespective of Cop-results?

Sabrar wrote:
mpolo wrote:1) He can protect somebody, but that person has no vote the following day
Protect as in Doctor specifically? Mark can also answer.
@mpolo, Mark: still outstanding question.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby bessie » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:13 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote: If scum Mark is on the team with the gift switcher then this makes sense. But I do feel more likely that the gift switcher is town...
Why? What would town gain from the switch? Confusion and two power claims?

BoomFrog wrote: @Bessie and LG: Do you feel Sabrar is town?
Woof!

SuicideJunkie wrote:Given the three cop result claims, I believe at most two of them are real, and I don't really trust any of the players involved.
What is your reason for the underlined?

MasterOfAll wrote:I don't have anything else to say here on D2, but maybe someone else still does?
Well there’s wam’s promised reads post. And everyone should post an updated ordered town-scum list.

mpolo wrote:I have no objection for further extensions, if someone wants to request one.
We have an extension. How about some reads and a town-scum list?

I should be available at new deadline.

D2 post count:
Spoiler:
bessie: 12
BoomFrog: 26
LaserGuy: 10
Mark_Cangila: 14
MasterOfAll: 9
moody7277: 9
mpolo: 7
plytho: 23
Sabrar: 6
SuicideJunkie: 10
wam: 9

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:04 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@plytho: similar to D1 you have been focusing most of D2 on a single player. That doesn't seem familiar from previous town!you
I'm aware. I already apologized and mentioned before the game that I'd be busy.

Working on reads now.

Weird thought: would it be beneficial for town to lynch neither wam nor Mark at this point?

Right now we have tree cop powers. One of which is probably in the hands of scum. If we mislynch one and scum NK the other we have none left. I'd rather let scum do the cop-killing. That does require us to do the hard job of finding scum outside of Mark and wam.

@Sabrar: are you aware of/willing to share anything that might indicate why you didn't receive a message?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:38 am UTC

bessie:

I think I can tell the difference between Town!bessie and scum!bessie and I think this is Town!bessie. Putting her as Town lean.

BoomFrog:

I feel there's a strong associative connection between him and Mark and think it's very likely if Mark flips scum then Boom will as well. Independently of that, some of his reads seem quite alarming. Boom always finds me scummy so I discount that, but his Sabrar/bessie/moody reads all seem quite o.O to me. Likely scum if Mark is, scum lean otherwise.

Mark_Cangila:

No reads, no content, plenty of weirdness.

The sequence of posts surrounding his claim feels very fishy to me.

Mark_Cangila wrote:A somewhat lack of boomgambit, but his gambits seem to have been reducing for the last few games. I don't find anything else in his play AI.

This is Mark's D1 read on Boom. When revisiting these reads later, he stands by this read. So BoomFrog was a null. Mark has otherwise not interacted with Boom at all. This doesn't strike me as a particularly sensible candidate for Mark to protect.

Mark_Cangila wrote:The BF thing is super interesting. Why can't he vote?


This is very strange for Mark to say given he knew the answer to this already, and ought to have known that some other player would also know the reason. Mark tends to be quite open with his results as Town, so his approach here seems quite dubious... I think Town!Mark would have more likely claimed his full result in his first post of D2 since his power had been switched anyway if he thought he had actually blocked the NK.

Mark wrote:I also had my power switched. I think it is more likely that there is a succesful doctor or RB then a scum withhold.


Same as above. Like plytho, I am very skeptical that Mark wouldn't have noted mpolo claiming a result in his first post of the day. This feels more to me like he is prepping his claim for later and didn't consider the implications of the power switch from Town POV.

Mark_Cangila wrote:
mpolo wrote:I somehow missed that Mark had his power switched as well. I think I know who is target was, and suspect that he was trying to do something townie in that targeting (that is, he used the "townier" half of the two option power). I suppose that targeting would work theoretically work for scum as well, though, due to additional information that scum has. However, the townie interpretation seems likelier. That at least pushes Mark_Cangila over the midpoint to "neutral leaning town" for me.

Going to confirm this is true. Just if anyone wanted to know.


Noting also that due to the targets of Mark's original power being confirmable, scum!Mark would need to use the power in a way that seems relatively townie. But again, this feels more like he's prepping his claim... there isn't really any reason for Mark to make this comment.

BoomFrog wrote:I think Mark is the most likely vote-off and you seem to think the power is evidence that he is town. So yeah, I'd reveal probably.


BoomFrog wrote:I know how to read a room. Mark is going to get voted-off if he doesn't claim his former power.

Vote Mark


BoomFrog feels way too eager to force a claim here with plenty of time remaining and Mark not even being the lead vote. Without knowing what power mpolo/Mark had, I am extremely suspicious of BoomFrog asking mpolo to claim here... Mark had posted an hour before, there was no reason to rush it since he was obviously following the thread.

Mark wrote:Mpolo's claim is my old role. I am voting for wam due to general scuminess too.


Again, the caginess of this is really strange. There's no reason not to claim a full result here.

Nothing in this feels like a townie claim to me. Scummy.

MoA:

Content is fairly marginal. Giving him a pass due to cop claim, might revisit later depending on how the GF thing resolves.

moody:

Usage and analysis of his power feels very townie. No serious concerns. Townie

mpolo:

Pretty much same as moody. Townie

plytho:

I like his reads and analysis. His posts feel very genuine. Leaning Town.

Sabrar:

I like his aggressive scum hunting this game and I feel his influence is outsized despite his relatively low post count. Leaning Town.

Suicide_Junkie:

Newbie weirdness hard to sort through. D2 content doesn't feel as sharp as D1. I still think newbie Town, but I'm less confident than I was before.

wam:

Votes at lynch scramble are defensive and poorly motivated. Some very problematic/scumslippy content too:

wam wrote:I agree with sabrars logic here
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&start=240#p4419265

Which means from my perspective Mark and MOA must be scum.

This is actually much more problematic from wam's point of view since it actually implies that both Sabrar and MoA are mafia but wam's own result implies that there's yet another scum in Boom/bessie/me. I think wam worked through the logic here marking himself in the scum column and felt it checked out without actually looking through the implications of how it would look to Town!him, which would actually be extremely alarming (there are similar problems for Mark).

wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Why did you not put SJ as one of your three? He was clearly newbie town.


I don't know tbh. Didn't really occur to me. think I wanted a good town block of people I can't read.


This justification seems odd to me. Wam had me/Boom/bessie/Sabrar as all rated as townier than SJ. The underlined statement suggests wam didn't really actually think about his targets vs. reads at all though. Overall, definitely scummy.


Town
LaserGuy
moody
mpolo
Sabrar/MoA
bessie
plytho
SuicideJunkie
BoomFrog
wam
Mark
Scum

I think there's a very good chance both wam and Mark are scum of some variety, though not necessarily scum together.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby mpolo » Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:34 am UTC

"Protect" in Mark_Cangila's role from N1= immune to all powers (not just kills)

I am struggling to keep up (we have like 70 people from all over Europe in the house, and it is eating away at time for "important" things like mafia…).

I think Mark_Cangila is more likely town than scum.
Wam I am uncertain of, and would accept his lynch. I can't really vote there, because I have been too detached to have a firm feeling.
If Mark_Cangila is scum, BoomFrog is scum, if he is town, BoomFrog is very likely town (as the putative NK target).
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby dimochka » Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:12 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Checking because this seems to be a point of contention:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:BoomFrog is voteless today. He may not vote.


dimochka wrote:Mark_Cangila(5): plytho, moody7277, wam, BoomFrog, LaserGuy


Is this votal correct?


Nope, my mistake. Corrected.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby dimochka » Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:17 pm UTC

Sorry no flavor currently as I'm still phone posting. Will adjust later.

Votals:

Mark_Cangila(4): plytho, moody7277, wam, LaserGuy
wam(5): Sabrar, MasterOfAll, Mark_Cangila, bessie

Not voting: mpolo, SuicideJunkie, BoomFrog

With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

New deadline is 9pm UTC, Saturday, 29th December 2018. Deadline timer: https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/c ... nt=cursive

However, if you guys want to end the day early, feel free.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby MasterOfAll » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:08 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
MasterOfAll wrote:I don't have anything else to say here on D2, but maybe someone else still does?
Well there’s wam’s promised reads post. And everyone should post an updated ordered town-scum list.
I doubt that we will get anything useful from wam, but ok.

The only update to my previous list is to move Mark from scummy to neutral, due to his apparent successful protection of BoomFrog.

Naughty
wam
LaserGuy
bessie
SuicideJunkie
Mark_Cangila
moody
plytho
BoomFrog
mpolo
Sabrar
Nice

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:18 pm UTC

I don't have the RL time or attention for this so here's what you get:

Plytho is right, obviously, once it's been said out loud. We are essentially in a deathy. The correct strategy in a deathy is to no lynch until MYLO because 2+ cops getting publicly claimed results is more info then a lynch gets us. We've already got the voting patterns for D2, we don't actually need to lynch. Between the cops and gift switcher we will gain a ton of information.

@mpolo: why does scum Mark mean scum BF?

@Sabrar: I'll get to those when I can. Why are you not trying to break the game? The only reason I can think of is that you are disgruntled scum.

@All: we should NL
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:19 pm UTC

We could also vote off a non-cop. I recommend LaserGuy or Sabrar. However I know I will be a top consideration for this and don't have the RL time to defend myself.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:34 pm UTC

On third thought, since all the players we'd consider voting off are also players that would need to be NKed if town we get the most advantage by No Lynching.

@Bessie: just remembered your question: My feeling that the gift switcher is town is not strong, but I think a real motivation to use the power for many players would be "because it's fun". Withholding is boring.

@Mark: You haven't answered why you didn't protect the cop.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:08 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:We could also vote off a non-cop. I recommend LaserGuy or Sabrar. However I know I will be a top consideration for this and don't have the RL time to defend myself.

While I utterly failed to spend any time on the game today, lynching you based on this reasoning was the one thing I came up with :mrgreen:
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:18 pm UTC

plytho wrote:@Sabrar: are you aware of/willing to share anything that might indicate why you didn't receive a message?
I have a possible explanation why I didn't receive the message but revealing it right now wouldn't be beneficial to us.

BoomFrog wrote:We are essentially in a deathy.
@Sabrar: Why are you not trying to break the game?
This is not Dethy. In Dethy there is a guarantee that abilities contain no hidden mechanics, scum can't mess with investigative results and no GF. Here you have neither. Also I agree with MasterOfAll about moody's power being OP if it's usable every night. Even as 1-shot it is very strong, just look at how many combinations we are able to discard after a single use. So right now I don't fully trust moody's result (besides the GF issue), I think wam is lying scum and Mark is just extremely scummy. So why would I want to NL to wait for a couple of untrustworthy results?

@Mark: why did you protect BoomFrog? Why did you pretend being confused about voteless!BoomFrog?
@wam: does your ability target?

Assuming wam's ability targets he should have been either blocked (because BoomFrog was immune to actions) or his result did not contain BoomFrog's alignment. The latter would mean non-Town in {bessie, LaserGuy} (assuming town!wam). I have bessie as solid Town, I don't think LaserGuy is Mafia but he could be indie I suppose.
So I find wam's claim even more ridiculous. Of course scum could have an ability that messes with investigative results but I find that unlikely.

BoomFrog has been pushing Mark all through D2 but could be bussing after role-switch was revealed. Otherwise I would see him more likely to be wam's buddy. I think having the next 3 lynches to be {Mark, wam, BoomFrog} in almost any order is still good. If we are truly adamant about having the cops have another shot tonight then we should definitely vote BoomFrog.

@plytho: why did you include that smiley when you agreed with this? It makes it look like you're not really advocating that option.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:32 pm UTC

Back. I didn't protect Wam as the cop because I didn't trust him. I protected BoomFrog because my read of him had gotten better and I felt he could be useful in scum hunting.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:33 pm UTC

Also, I did target BF.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:40 pm UTC

@plytho: why did you include that smiley when you agreed with this? It makes it look like you're not really advocating that option.[/quote]

I do advocate that option. The smiley indicates that it's funny that BoomFrog mentioned the one thing I thought about.

I think lynch BoomFrog, protect Mark with the vote block might be the best strategy.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:46 pm UTC

I pretended to be confused over the mod announcement because I wanted to keep myself safe, not realizing that the role switch made it irrelevent.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:41 pm UTC

Keep myself safe as in avoiding the kill that would result from a claim.

Also, I don't get BF's insistence for NL when he seemed to think Wam was scummy. If you find someone you think is scum, lynch them.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:07 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
SuicideJunkie wrote:Given the three cop result claims, I believe at most two of them are real, and I don't really trust any of the players involved.
What is your reason for the underlined?

Too many cops, duplicate power claims, and likely mafia involvement.
Not absolute, but I'd bet at least one is dirty lies.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby wam » Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:53 pm UTC

So the much awaited Wam reads!

Done Alphabetically based on Day 2 content

Bessie

Im getting standard town bessie vibes. I like the posts in general one thing stood out though. Bessie why did you put me at L-1, especially when I have self hammered before? Seems like a odd risk for town bessie to take?

Boom

Generally town but I find it hard to think that boom wouldn't be aware of timezones as statted in this post viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=40#p4420104

Laser

Mainly looked at the reads post. Read of MOA looks weird to me.

@ Laser why can't town vote defensively? (PS I have had this argument before)

Mark

I don't get the insistence that our roles cant be in the game together (As Bessie keeps mentioning). I have to assume his role is in the game unless we have a mark mpolo team but I don't get the boom protect based on his previous posts. Also

Mark if you valued boomfrog's scum hunting why did you remove his vote? I.e the most useful thing for scum hunting.

MOA

Looks reasonable ocntent on the surface but the more I looke dthe more question I got..

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=160#p4419221
Where does the moody read in this post come from?

goes back on it here for the claim.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=160#p4419555

MOA Moody buddies?

Moody

THe claim would be a very bold move by scum moody given the timing. Although of all the claimed powers would be easiest for scum to fake. Going to go with neutral

Mpolo

Its hard to get a read of mpolo due to the RL restrictions but I really dont like the wishyness of this post

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=200#p4420596

Plytho

I like the content and i think his pushing and prodding at mark for the inconsitencies is townie - town.

Sabrar

I didn't like the change of post style day 1 I thought it was more likely to come from scum sabara. As the game has gone on I think the content is town sabrar - town.

SJ

Day 2 content has reinforced the newbie town vibe. - Town


@Sabrar

My role targets and no idea why I got a result on boomfrog. However, I submit it as
a) Boom
b) Bessie
c) Laser

And get an answer player a, b and c are not the same alignment.

Therfore there is a possibility I got redirected or similar. Will think about options overnight.

Note: I will not be around much of tomorrow
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:00 am UTC

@wam: please sort town-to-scum

Also, your links will stop working soon. You should use the link in the white icon next to the name of the poster in the upper left of the post to keep the correct link. (You're linking to sort-by-author, that link doesn't link to the same post if people post after you link.)
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:08 am UTC

@Sabrar: You are either wam or Mark are town then No Lynch is better. If you are town, you are letting confirmation bias run rampent.

MoA could be GF. Moody could be scum and lying, there could be a GF and one of Mark/wam is town.

Why do you have LG so solidly not-mafia but not solidly town?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby wam » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:10 am UTC

Just after I turn the laptop off!

Town

Plytho
Sj
Bessie
Sabrar
Boom
Laser
Moody
Mpolo
Moa
Mark

Town

Links will have to wait till morning I need to sleep now .
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:11 am UTC

Updated summary of known/claimed powers:

MoA: messages (confirmed) + italics
Mpolo:formerly 2-player alignment cop, currently doc + voteblock or roleblock + double vote giver (pretty much confirmed)
Mark: see mpolo, but the other way around
Wam: three way alignment cop
Moody: sort of all player alignment cop

Unclaimed:
Extra vote on wam.
Role-switcher
Sabrar not receiving the message


Quick and dirty reads list:

Plytho
Mpolo: see my earlier reasoning
Moody: feeling very townie this game, I like what he’s been saying
SuicideJunky: that newbie town feel
MoA: not really noting anything suspicious and he has mpolo’s result to support
Sabrar: for some reason I’m linking sabrar to the GF possibility, other than that he’s been a drivin
g presence this game with the usual solid insights
LaserGuy: I kind of lost track of LaserGuy but his reads list is solid

Wam: I get that wam’s looking scummy, but that’s always the case and I feel he generally makes sense here. Although that reads list is pretty bad.
Bessie: I have a lingering scum read on her from earlier but nothing new has pinged me from bessie so i’m hesitating.

BoomFrog: Lots of weird stuff from BoomFrog. I don’t like this post (someone else pointed this out before)
BoomFrog wrote:
mpolo wrote:I'm considering whether it would be useful to reveal the power that I have now, as it adds some clarity to the night before… After all, at least 3 people know what it is (Mark_Cangila, myself, the submitter). If Mark or the submitter is scum, then the whole scumteam knows as well. What do you think?

I think Mark is the most likely vote-off and you seem to think the power is evidence that he is town. So yeah, I'd reveal probably.

This fits very well in the boom-mark buddy theory. As does boom’s unvote of mark after I voted Mark D1. That felt like he was trying to link me to mark for later use but when I started a sincere push he backed off.
Mark: lack of reads D1, all that weird stuff with mpolo’s claim. Mark is scummier than usual this game.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:42 am UTC

wam's read list is terrible. Mpolo is 3rd scummiest? With a confirmed starting cop power!?

I'm fine with voting-off wam now. (adding to LaserGuy's theory that I'm buddies with Mark :roll: )

Gift switcher should take Marks gift away from him.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:59 am UTC

I think the biggest topic is boomfrog's suggestion of deathy (cop-till-you-drop, then madly lynch, I presume) mode. I think it is safe to say that nobody thinks there could be 5/10 cops, and only someone who has kept quiet about being one would suspect there are 4/10.

The claims support 3/10.
I suspect 2/10 and a faker.

Given the roleswitcher, the cops could be corrupted going forward.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, such a mode would require an abundance of vig powers to capitalize on the extra knowledge, and given the lack of night kills, that doesn't seem likely.

I don't know how many cops and vig it would take to make deathy mode beneficial for town, but surely this game can't be to that point with what we know.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:11 am UTC

mpolo wrote:we have like 70 people from all over Europe in the house, and it is eating away at time for "important" things like mafia…
I hate it when that happens. :lol:

MasterOfAll wrote:I doubt that we will get anything useful from wam, but ok.
I feel that all content (or deliberate lack of content) is useful, somehow, if you know how to read it correctly.

BoomFrog wrote: @Sabrar: I'll get to those when I can. Why are you not trying to break the game? The only reason I can think of is that you are disgruntled scum.
Hmm, BoomFrog has a point. Sabrar, hmmm, sometimes gets distracted by the mechanical aspects of the game over analyzing scummy content (X-men?? :P ). But BoomFrog, can Sabrar not be disgruntled town, not scum, with an aspect to his role he doesn’t like?

BoomFrog wrote: @Bessie: just remembered your question: My feeling that the gift switcher is town is not strong, but I think a real motivation to use the power for many players would be "because it's fun". Withholding is boring.
I do not understand why anyone would do something illogical just because it is fun (alas not sarcasm :? ).

Mark_Cangila wrote: If you find someone you think is scum, lynch them.
+1, QFT, dude you read my mind . . .

SuicideJunkie wrote:
bessie wrote:
SuicideJunkie wrote:Given the three cop result claims, I believe at most two of them are real, and I don't really trust any of the players involved.
What is your reason for the underlined?

Too many cops, duplicate power claims, and likely mafia involvement.
See here. Roles were written by and randomly distributed among the players, and powers are NAI. Duplicates are not only possible, they tend to be not uncommon. I know this is your first Secret Santa game, but how did you miss all the times we’ve been trying to explain this to Mark? And with the amount of game mechanics analysis you’ve been doing?

wam wrote:Bessie why did you put me at L-1, especially when I have self hammered before? Seems like a odd risk for town bessie to take?
Tied voting resolution (game specific rule #4). Deadline was in 28 hours and had not been extended (and I didn’t think it would as jimbob said he wanted 48 hours notice). I realized that there was a reasonable chance this could end with a 5-5 split, and if there is a tie between you and Mark, I preferred you. So, why didn’t you hammer?

BoomFrog wrote: wam's read list is terrible. Mpolo is 3rd scummiest? With a confirmed starting cop power!?
Really BoomFrog? :roll:

@mpolo, @moody : would you mind please making a few posts? I am testing a theory that there may be a role in the game whose power is related to having the lowest post count each day. I am also trying to determine if scum is trying to hinder this role’s participation by keeping their post counts low. It would help with my analysis if you would both raise your posts counts.

D2 post count:
Spoiler:
bessie: 13
BoomFrog: 31
LaserGuy: 11
Mark_Cangila: 18
MasterOfAll: 10
moody7277: 9
mpolo: 8
plytho: 28
Sabrar: 7
SuicideJunkie: 12
wam: 11


Ninja'd, back later.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:57 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Gift switcher should take Marks gift away from him.


Mark's power was already swapped on N1 and can't be moved again.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:38 am UTC

It is possible that all the cops are real and town, but I'd still expect the submissions to be more creative.
I'll queue up previous santa threads for reading.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:47 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@Sabrar: You are either wam or Mark are town then No Lynch is better. If you are town, you are letting confirmation bias run rampent.

MoA could be GF. Moody could be scum and lying, there could be a GF and one of Mark/wam is town.

Why do you have LG so solidly not-mafia but not solidly town?
I'm pretty sure you are wam's scum-buddy, I just can't decide who is the third from {plytho, Mark, MOA}. Unfortunately I don't have a good explanation for the no-kill just yet but there are aspects of the game which do not make sense mechanically. I will have to look at some timelines during the night.
LG is a patented meta-read, mostly coming from Halloween last year.
How about you also answer my questions?

bessie wrote:Hmm, BoomFrog has a point. Sabrar, hmmm, sometimes gets distracted by the mechanical aspects of the game over analyzing scummy content (X-men?? :P ). But BoomFrog, can Sabrar not be disgruntled town, not scum, with an aspect to his role he doesn’t like?
Me potentially being disgruntled with my role has nothing to do with it. Breaking the game requires mass-claim and as yourself alluded to Madge might not have been quite dead N1 so it is possible some powers were reflected in which case you can throw out any such mechanical considerations right out of the window.

Depending on stuff this might be my last post for the day.
@all: please vote wam. Or BoomFrog.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:37 am UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:It is possible that all the cops are real and town, but I'd still expect the submissions to be more creative.
I'll queue up previous santa threads for reading.
You don’t need to read the previous Secret Santa games to understand how the setup works, you only need to read my previous post. I think you’re focusing too much on game mechanics, which is usually one of my favorite things too, but because of the way Secret Santa is set up you’re not going to be able to game the game the way you can a normal game. Balance, fair distribution of powers, non-game breaking roles, etc are not guaranteed.

This is my summary of your D2 content: What was up with the lynch, what’s going on with those night results? Setup speculation and game mechanics. This post had some player analysis, but you didn’t draw many conclusions in it. More game mechanics.

Setup spec and the like is fine but more important are your opinions on other players. I think the best contribution you can make to help town is to so an ordered town-scum list, even better if you include a brief read of each player. If all you talk about is game mechanics (and basing your analysis on your ideas of a fair and balanced setup) then you’re active lurking.


Woof
bessie – Waggy lab.
Sabrar – Still a puppy.
moody7277 – He can stay here if he makes a few posts.
MasterOfAll – Not on my lynch list today.
LaserGuy – Not seeing the reason for making that last post. Will come back to him tomorrow.
mpolo – Overwhelmed as usual. Make three posts or slip farther down this list.
SuicideJunkie- Active lurking, could be uncertain newbie scum.
plytho – I’m still suspicious of his resistance to my post counting. Interesting, he has me lower on his list than wam, who he thinks is making sense.
Mark_Cangila – His D2 content almost entirely defending himself to plytho (I can sympathize a bit, having been in the same position more than once), and almost no analysis or opinions. Mark, we need some reads and/or an ordered list.
BoomFrog – Is quite capable of providing townie logic as scum, and equally capable of providing scummy logic of town (= Is BoomFrog). Has put an interesting effort into trying to find reasons not to lynch wam.
wam – I FoS’d him for his first post, and he’s done nothing to raise my opinion of him this entire game.
Grrr

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plytho
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:54 am UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:Back. I didn't protect Wam as the cop because I didn't trust him. I protected BoomFrog because my read of him had gotten better and I felt he could be useful in scum hunting.
Why didn't you say so? I spent half of D1 asking for better reads and pointing out you were null on everyone. Then you changed your read on BoomFrog, but didn't tell us?
LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Gift switcher should take Marks gift away from him.


Mark's power was already swapped on N1 and can't be moved again.
What? If you're going to claim, claim more than this. Like, why did you switch Mark and mpolo?

plytho wrote:Weird thought: would it be beneficial for town to lynch neither wam nor Mark at this point?

Right now we have tree cop powers. One of which is probably in the hands of scum. If we mislynch one and scum NK the other we have none left. I'd rather let scum do the cop-killing. That does require us to do the hard job of finding scum outside of Mark and wam.
Why did no-one but BoomFrog respond to this? Do you all disagree so strongly it's not even worth responding to? Do you like losing cops?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:02 am UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: If scum Mark is on the team with the gift switcher then this makes sense. But I do feel more likely that the gift switcher is town...
Why? What would town gain from the switch? Confusion and two power claims?

BoomFrog wrote:@Bessie: just remembered your question: My feeling that the gift switcher is town is not strong, but I think a real motivation to use the power for many players would be "because it's fun". Withholding is boring.
That’s not an answer to bessie’s question.
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