Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

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bessie
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby bessie » Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:33 am UTC

MasterOfAll, I received your message. Woof. How about this time you confirm to me?

SuicideJunkie wrote:I'm curious to see if Madge or Boomfrog actually return from the castle. Madge may be too late, and I don't have any hope for Plytho.
I doubt that any of these players will return to the game, at least in any way that can directly affect it, and you should probably focus your attention on the players that are still alive. How does BoomFrog’s flip affect your read of Mark? (reference this post)

Vicarin wrote:@bessie: If you think that Sabrar has some kind of posting restriction, then it's a type of restriction not shared by most people, despite it being in the sample role in the OP. You think he was just really unlucky and the restriction was given to one of the people who would get hit hardest by it?
I’m not sure what you mean by this, unless you just haven’t read my previous posts carefully. In this post I first speculated Sabrar may have a posting restriction. BoomFrog understood what I what I was thinking but it seems not everyone else did. When questioned on it directly, Sabrar declined to comment. The sample role I fabricated in this post used the sample in the OP as justification for speculating that a posting restriction was possible, but it is completely different from “Sir Jimbob the Eloquent” whose restriction encourages participation and posting. As I already said in the linked post, I think the theoretical posting restriction would be submitted with and part of the role. As such, this complete role would have been randomly assigned to a player.

plytho was especially skeptical of my post counting, but I think that it perhaps wasn’t entirely worthless. Compare the D1 post counts with the D2 post counts. Some of the changes in post counts between D1 and D2 is interesting.
Spoiler:
Final D1 post count, including confirmation posts:
bessie: 16
BoomFrog: 27
LaserGuy: 14
Madge: 11
Mark_Cangila: 14
MasterOfAll: 9
moody7277: 12
mpolo: 8
plytho: 37
Sabrar: 6
SuicideJunkie: 25
wam: 30

Final D2 post count:
bessie: 17
BoomFrog: 35
LaserGuy: 13
Mark_Cangila: 18
MasterOfAll: 10
moody7277: 11
mpolo: 13
plytho: 33
Sabrar: 8
SuicideJunkie: 14
wam: 11
And if anyone is still skeptical that posting restrictions are possible, see BoomFrog’s flip.

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Vicarin
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:21 am UTC

@bessie: Not ruling it out entirely, but assuming that it is a restriction related to having to post less than everyone else, it means that:

1) Someone submitted a lurking role that is at least somewhat playable as town and scum. As you've said, I'd hope no-one would actually do this in the first place, seeing as it's working against the game. Maybe if the person could specifically say they have the restriction, in which case they could be driving everyone else to post more, but Sabrar's ruled that out.

2) This role happened to end up on one of the most active players. Going by that D1 list, I think there's about 4 people who wouldn't be suspicious at all (well, more than usual) if they were the least active poster, and I'm sure if BoomFrog did it everyone would think he's gambiting :P. Such a restriction is only really important and noticable if it ends up on someone who normally posts very prolifically, and never changes their style.

3) Unlike MoA's original ability,this would be a restriction applied to a role itself, and not be incredibly obvious. If someone had started the game typing entirely in italics or emojis then a post restriction would appear to be the cause, but the poster just doing less posts than usual? Too many other possible causes.

If there was someone else that you thought had a restriction and you said what it was, then maybe I'd buy the theory, but as is I think Sabrar's just experimenting with his meta.

So wam and SuicideJunkie were significantly less active and mpolo and BoomFrog were a bit more active. Though those last two were doing padding posts at various points during D2. Do you think scum believes that Sabrar does have a posting restriction, and is trying to mess with it?

Anyway, unless you're going to come out against SuicideJunkie in particular, I don't think this is a particularly fruitful line of analysis, seeing as we've got 2 days of votes and a bunch of cop results to work with.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:05 am UTC

Assuming Mark and moody are town (and me :D) and no Godfather exists:

town
LaserGuy
Sabrar
bessie
SuicideJunkie

not-town
MoA

has 2 errors

And

Sabrar, bessie, MoA are all town or all not-town.

Which immediately collapses to

Sabrar, bessie, MoA scum

LaserGuy, SuicideJunkie, moody, Mark, Vicarin Town.

OR

Sabrar, bessie, MoA, Vicarin, Mark, moody Town

Exactly one of LaserGuy and SuicideJunkie is scum.

If mpolo was magic mirrored N1, then the first result should be bessie and LaserGuy are coaligned, so that would mean Sabrar and LaserGuy swap in this analysis.

If the original setup was 8-3-1, then I'd say that we've just got the Sabrar-bessie-MoA group as the remaining scum, with no Godfather, with an outside chance of LaserGuy-bessie-MoA, depending on wam's target. However, this requires D2 to be quite a big bus with presumably 2 other mafia and an indie all voting for wam, and the wagon against Mark being all town except for wam. Unlikely.

If the original setup was 9-2-1 or 9-3, then one of SuicideJunkie and LaserGuy is scum (with a small chance of Sabrar), and the other remaining scum is most likely a Godfather.

If Mark is scum, then something, very, very weird happened N1. If anyone wants to give a reasonable theory as to what would explain this situation, I'm all ears.

If moody is scum, then we almost certainly have bessie, MoA, Sabrar, Mark and Vicarin in the town pile (Godfather much less important with only 1 cop, and 5 scum would be silly), leaving 1 or 2 more scum out of LaserGuy, SuicideJunkie (small chance of Sabrar as scum if mirror was used).

From here, LaserGuy being wam's scum buddy makes a hell of a lot of sense (putting your scum buddy as 2nd most votable while aggressively going after someone else was exactly what I did on D2 of B99), and the main alternatives seem reasonably unlikely. Yeah, let's start here today:

Vote: LaserGuy

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:44 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Can you explain this in more detail? He was a pretty obvious protection choice for me seeing as I know what ability he has.

bessie wrote:Why wouldn’t Mark be protected? mpolo had a town lean on Mark.

Vicarin replaced mpolo during the night with sufficient time being there to submit his own action, so mpolo's choice didn't matter.
Mark is lynch-bait (to steal a phrase), he's about the scummiest town I've ever seen (I think).

Mark_Cangila wrote:Last night I targeted MoA and Bessie.
Targeting MasterOfAll again was a bad choice, it gives us less info. You should have focused on players on whom we don't have any result yet.

SuicideJunkie wrote:My power is something of an infohazard.
The act of describing it would ruin most of its benefits to the town, so I'd rather not do so.
Unless your ability explicitly says "If you reveal your role/result then badTM things will happen" you should not be concerned. We have possibly only a single mislynch left, the time to share information is right now. Even if you're Vig it's unlikely that scum can mess with your ability.

MasterOfAll wrote:So, if you have a piece of coal from N1 or N2, please speak up.
Seconding this. I want everyone to claim. I have not received a piece of coal on either night. I also want MasterOfAll to claim the full extent of his ability after everyone claimed.

Currently we have no explanation for the second kill (I can't see bessie shooting BoomFrog, I could see her shooting plytho but then scum wouldn't kill BoomFrog), unless SuicideJunkie uses infohazard in a completely different way than I expected.
This could mean an even-night SK.

Why Mark is unlikely to be scum with wam:
- using rolestopper on BoomFrog N1: he could have used it on wam instead, saying he wanted to protect a cop-claim. wam was likely to be copped/tracked by actual town, stopping that would have been ideal. Rolestopper on BoomFrog does not accomplish anything.
- no other explanation for the no death on N1. We know from wam's flip that Mafia has standard nk and I doubt that they would have something like a Cannoneer.
- wam was pushing Mark very hard D1. Due to day-chat this might have been a coordinated bus but it doesn't feel right. Also this put wam in danger of getting voted off.

This and this would also point to MasterOfAll not being wam's buddy. There was no need for wam to bus there. Actually there was no need for him to vote there in either scenario...

I mean if scum-team is {Mark, MOA, wam} then I could see some epic bussing after all of them were found suspicious however that doesn't explain moody's result.

@bessie: who is your scum-team if Mark and MOA are town?

Ninja'd by Vicarin's analysis.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:52 am UTC

{Mark, MoA, wam} also doesn't explain my result unless you want to admit to being scum :P.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:32 am UTC

Vicarin:
I suppose it hasn't. I need to wait for preconditions to use it, and my guesses haven't been the best so far.
If scum hear about it, then it won't work.

Bessie:
Yeah, I just found the descriptions interesting, but it is probably just fluff.
By D2, I'd used up most of my pre-game ideas, and the volume was a bit much to keep up with.

Given that Boom is town, that makes the idea that town-Mark protected boom plausible.
The Sab = MoA cop vs MoA,Mark,wam result is interesting. I thought it would be one of MoA or Mark, but this sounds like neither of them, or MoA GF.

I haven't seen coal, but I did get another message last night signed MoA.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:53 pm UTC

I was the N1 coal recipient.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby bessie » Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:48 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:1) Someone submitted a lurking role that is at least somewhat playable as town and scum. As you've said, I'd hope no-one would actually do this in the first place, seeing as it's working against the game.
Someone submitted the ventriloquist role. And that person will be a candidate for my D1 tunnel in our next game.

Vicarin wrote:Such a restriction is only really important and noticable if it ends up on someone who normally posts very prolifically, and never changes their style.
I’m not sure that the intent was to submit a role that would reveal itself. I submitted Motivator for last year’s Secret Santa and it was apparent who had the role on D1, but it wasn’t my intent to make the recipient obvious, I just liked the role and didn’t think it through. It was just lucky a coincidence for mafia.

Vicarin wrote:Do you think scum believes that Sabrar does have a posting restriction, and is trying to mess with it?
Yes.

Vicarin wrote:Anyway, unless you're going to come out against SuicideJunkie in particular, I don't think this is a particularly fruitful line of analysis, seeing as we've got 2 days of votes and a bunch of cop results to work with.
Perhaps, but where’s the harm? As I explained to plytho, it is in addition to, not in place of my other content.

Sabrar wrote:Vicarin replaced mpolo during the night with sufficient time being there to submit his own action, so mpolo's choice didn't matter.
Mark is lynch-bait (to steal a phrase), he's about the scummiest town I've ever seen (I think).
A replacement might be willing to consider/keep the previous player’s pre-submitted action (more so because it is mpolo, but perhaps that’s just me).
Mark is competing with BoomFrog for the title. . .

Sabrar wrote: @bessie: who is your scum-team if Mark and MOA are town?
Will think about this today. I am currently suspicious of SuicideJunkie.

SuicideJunkie wrote:By D2, I'd used up most of my pre-game ideas, and the volume was a bit much to keep up with.
I don’t understand this comment. Have you no ideas since the game started?

No coal.

D3 post count:
Spoiler:
bessie: 2
LaserGuy: 2
Mark_Cangila: 1
MasterOfAll: 1
moody7277: 3
Sabrar: 2
SuicideJunkie: 2
Vicarin: 10

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:39 pm UTC

Didn't have time for a full reread, so mostly going off memory here.

Most people have already claimed... Second kill is not likely due to a vig. Ruling out Sabrar based on D3 content. SuicideJunkie seems to be suggesting their role is more esoteric than a vig. I have reason to believe the second kill is also not due to vig!bessie. So it seems likely we have an SK or possibly a second mafia, though I don't know if the logic actually works for that. PoE suggests most likely candidates for buddies with wam are SJ or bessie. Most likely candidate for SK is Mark.

I have not received coal.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby MasterOfAll » Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:22 pm UTC

There is only so much we can say without breaking the "Do not discuss your submitted role" rule, but I did want to mention that I think whoever submitted wam's role was pretty clever in giving a hidden mechanic that would make it obvious who received that role (wam starting D2 with 1 vote on him). And that person then obviously knew that wam was lying about his cop ability.

Coal claims summary:
LaserGuy - no coal
bessie - no coal
moody - N1 coal
SuicideJunkie - no coal
Sabrar - no coal
Vicarin - no coal
Mark - not yet responded

I will say more about the coal after we hear from Mark.


@bessie - Yellow labs are great. One of my favorite breeds.


Mostly through process of elimination, I am most suspicious of LaserGuy and SuicideJunkie right now.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby MasterOfAll » Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:59 pm UTC

N2 messages received summary:
Vicarin(mpolo) - received
bessie - received
SuicideJunkie - received
plytho - deceased
Sabrar - ???

Anyone receive the green message intended for Sabrar?

@Vic - sorry that I didn't do more interesting things with the messages, but after claiming the ability on D1, I didn't see much I could do with that abilty other than send a straightforward message to the maximum number of players, and hope that it might help sort out target swaps and roleblocks and such.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:40 pm UTC

No coal for me.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby MasterOfAll » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:09 pm UTC

OK, then either nobody got coal on N2, or soon-to-be-dead plytho got it, or one of you is lying. I'm sure that BoomFrog at least attempted to give a piece of coal away, as it would make no sense for him to withhold due to his previous recipient being moody, for reasons explained next.

The reason that BoomFrog made these sorts of posts, and especially this one . . .
BoomFrog wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Thursday will be crazy busy for me.

To add some clarity, I just want to confirm. Your power does not target anyone ever right?
is because the other half of the coal ability is sort of a delayed watcher. I can target a player each night and be told if they have ever been visited by a player holding a piece of coal. So, obviously, if moody's ability counts as targeting everyone, then this watching ability would be completely useless as it would always return a positive result.


Speaking of moody, as many other players have already done, I've gone back to moody's list to see if I can make sense of it:
town
LaserGuy
Boomfrog - confirmed correct
Sabrar
plytho - confirmed correct
bessie
Vic/mpolo
SuicideJunkie

not-town
MoA - definitely incorrect
Mark_Cangila
wam - confirmed correct

So, from my point of view, I'm looking for 2 more incorrects. Although on D2 I felt good about Mark due to his apparent successful protection of BoomFrog on N1, if I move him to town, that would leave the not-town pile with 2 players total (wam plus someone from the town list). And a scum team of just 2 doesn't make any sense to me. Of course, it is possible that there is a godfather hiding in the town list, which would allow 3 non-town, which makes more sense to me. But if there isn't a godfather, then Mark must either be a secret miller (which I really doubt) or non-town.

Assuming that Mark is non-town, that still requires moving 2 players from town to non-town to make the numbers work, which means we started the game either 8-3-1 or 8-2-2. And either of those make sense in light of the 2 NK's on N2.

Factoring in either a godfather or Mark=miller, then we started 9-3 (with somewhat unexplained 2nd NK) or 8-2-1.

I briefly considered that I am a secret miller, but disregarded that due to the other cop results we have received.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby MasterOfAll » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:21 pm UTC

Oh, for completeness, I shouldn't forget that moody might be non-town, in which case his list is most likely completely meaningless.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:31 pm UTC

@MoA: Make sure to fold my and Mark's results in too, don't just focus on Moody's result because it's the biggest. And a secret Miller may be possible, but is probably less likely than a Godfather.

You're correct that at least your messages have ruled out something like the schedule switcher of last year. So that's good I guess.

@SuicideJunkie: how about a reads list if we can't figure out what you've been up to based off your role?

@Mark: you able to do some reads as well?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:26 pm UTC

Bessie:
What I mean is that before the game started I had lots of time for my brain to run with things unhindered.
D2 and on, reality has set in and things are changing rapidly while things get busier.

Vicarin:
I spent today recovering from a pile of IT issues that built up over the holidays, and didn't get a chance to read up, but I'll get a new list out.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:33 am UTC

My version of what we can conclude from claims:

scum!Mark, town!Vic:

MoA not scum, 2 of {LG, bessie, SJ} scum
GF in this case not likely because we would already have 4 non-town

OR, throwing out lemma 0

Sabrar scum, 2 more scum in {LG, bessie, SJ}

5 scum in a 12 player game is ridiculous, even for a special game. Therefore, lemma 0 holds.

town!Mark, town!Vic:

Mark not scum, MoA not scum, 1 of {LG, SJ} scum

GF in this case more likely because without it, would only be 2 scum otherwise.

town!Mark, scum!Vic:

Mark not scum, Vic scum, 3rd undetermined

if MoA scum, 3rd mistake is the scum in {LG, Sab, bessie, SJ}, otherwise there's a GF in that same group to make up a 3-person scum team which is most likely setup

scum!Mark, scum!Vic:

Vic not town, 2nd and 3rd undetermined

not much to be deduced because of lack of trustworthy info.

Big conclusion is that I need to firm up my reads on {LG, bessie, SJ}.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:27 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:{Mark, MoA, wam} also doesn't explain my result unless you want to admit to being scum :P.
No, MasterOfAll might be GF in that scenario.

SuicideJunkie wrote:I need to wait for preconditions to use it, and my guesses haven't been the best so far.
If scum hear about it, then it won't work.
If scum submitted your ability then they already know those predictions. You should make it public so we can see who tried to avoid it.

I have not received any messages. I might know the reason why.

I'm liking the PoE on SuicideJunkie at the moment. So here's an incentive to help him claim.

Vote: SuicideJunkie

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:28 am UTC

Almost 1/3rd of the way into D3, and we've got 2 or 3 posts from most people today? What on earth?

Everyone, put out some more content, especially reads! Last year had almost twice the content with about half the players on their D3 LYLO after 2 days. If scum wins this just because everyone's hard lurking I'm going to be rather disappointed. Doubly so if bessie's guess is correct and Sabrar is shackled by a weird post restriction. Triply so if scum is lurking primarily to take advantage of that if it is the case.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:38 am UTC

@Sabrar: Would it be helpful to you for me to swap your ability tonight?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:16 pm UTC

On review I'm liking Laserguy even less.
Suggesting I'm scum if daychat because I'm new makes even more sense if he knew daychat existed and that I wasn't part of it. My posting hours certainly haven't helped that impression.
Laser was very quick to jump on my Madge vote too.
Aiming to get Boom lynched with Mark if Mark is scum.
Seems subtly protective of MoA. The fact that wam did vote for MoA in the RVS sounds like a practical thing to do, but I'm .
Plausible scum.

Moody.
Not showing recent posts in search makes it inconvenient.
Good power & results, I liked the guesses. Might be overvalued, but I'm satisfied.
Not seeing anything scummy, just decent work and some detailed analysis to check over.

Mpolo=Vicarin
mpolo was relatively quiet, but between RL and the power that makes sense.
I like that Vicarin is more active and fresh.
Transition feels townish, but that's me.

Sabrar
Didn't like me or Boomfrog, but for decent reasons.
Pushing hard and not letting go. Dedicated, but I'm not sure what that means. Tied to MoA by a cop I believe.
Probably town.


Got to run back to meetings and customer calls now.
I may reconsider after reading more people, but for now I'm following the cop.
Vote Laserguy

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby MasterOfAll » Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:35 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:. . . but I'm .
Plausible scum.
I agree, you are plausible scum. Still, I don't think that is what you meant. What was the thought you didn't finish?
SuicideJunkie wrote:I may reconsider after reading more people, but for now I'm following the cop.
Which I'm assuming to mean that you are applying some process of elimination, yes?

@Vic - I do actually have a lot of faith in mpolo's result that Sabrar and I are co-aligned, and the way he claimed it and that his role had been swapped makes me feel very townie about him/you. I have less faith in Mark's result about bessie and I, not because of bessie, but just because I'm less sure about Mark being town and therefore trustworthy. As for wam's claim, I don't plan to use it at all, as it was clearly a fake ability; still, I wouldn't be too surprised if it ends up that one or both of bessie and LaserGuy end up being non-town (we already know BoomFrog was town), but again, I don't think we can get any useful info from wam's "result".

@bessie - Did you use a targeting ability last night, and if you did, do you have any reason to suspect that it was interfered with?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:02 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie

Spoiler:
D1
post 1: resume, doesn't seem to like RVS
post 2: reaction to MoA's joke vote and joke claim
post 3: terminology confusion

Looks like standard newer player stuff

post 4: amazing display of meta knowledge from his research
post 5: still showing displeasure at RVS, even trying to make alignment judgements off it
post 6: disputing some of plytho's reaction to MoA's stated activity level.
post 7: poke at BF for his reaction about MoA's joke claim
post 8: fluff
post 9: The Table of Reads. includes himself on the table, has bessie and plytho as also very townie, Sabrar and Mark as bottom 2.

May have already mentioned that the "loquaciousness" category correlating with his final score very strongly is ironic when compared to his point in post 6.

post 10: explaining and justifying some of the categories in the table
post 11: redefines the table's purpose from a town/scum list to encouraging quieter posters, Sabrar's position on it revised due to his info-laden spoiler not viewed
post 12: fluff
post 13: numerics on Sabrar revision, details how he got his number on MoA, sass to Sabrar. repeats reads in more familiar format, MoA, Madge, Mark votable, plytho and bessie towniest

categories broadly align with my reads

post 14: response about a power claim (out of context a little hard to judge)
post 15: clarification about town->scum list
post 16: points about current voting situation, including dislike of No Lynch. starts Madge wagon.

Any problem I would have with his role in the Madge wagon would be hypocritical

post 17: reply to bessie about his allegation she was fishing and point re voting
post 18: acknowledges correction re tie vote rules, surprised at having started the Madge wagon, proposes checking voting patterns
post 19: still lamenting starting the Madge wagon

Cynical View here: he's figuring this will be a point against him if and when she flips town

post 20: reiterates his votables from post 13 in response to question from BF. unofficial vote plus untie offer
post 21: clarification on BF's question
post 22: response to Mark's estimation of SJ's experience
post 23: correction on post quotes
post 24:
I am now 85%+ convinced wam is town.


I believe the term Hilarious in Hindsight covers this.

D2
post 25: final regret on Madge wagon, seems willing to blame no NK on scum withholding. message claim
post 26: final final regret
post 27: trying to puzzle the no NK and vote issues
post 28: kind of a reads plus connections post, plus speculation on the power switching
post 29: more speculation on night power usage
post 30: hedges town read on wam
post 31: cop result analysis and some alignment judgements from it (town Mark and BF), only 2 of 3 cop claims likely town.
post 32: clarifies point plytho brought up about wam's "cop claim", offers to hammer wam
post 33: reply to me about a point of my notation
post 34: shot down re hammer offer
post 35: reply to bessie re his opinion on the three cop claims
post 36: post about BF's redefining the game in terms of deathy, not really a cogent counter argument.
post 37: minor point revising his statement in post 31
post 38: town->scum list with me and bessie at top, wam and Mark at bottom

Seems a little confused in some of the analysis. The switch on Mark being town in post 31 to being second scummiest in post 38 is weird. The switch on wam is a little more gradual seems to be more of following the crowd.

D3

post 39: warns against claiming power as it's bad for town
post 40: repeats claim from post 39, comes back around to town!Mark. no coal
post 41: seems to be hitting the wall re content (not uncommon I've heard)
post 42: some reads, decides LG is scum, votes LG

"following the cop" in the last post seems a little ambiguous as I can't recall any definitive single-valued opinions to make the LaserGuy vote on.


On the whole, there are some stylistic peculiarities to get used to that might otherwise be seen as scummy. The movement on wam is a little troubling. I don't see any strong interactions with any particular person. Right now I'd put him at a +3.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:02 am UTC

@MoA
Heh. "But I'm not convinced it is real."
I think I was clarifying that bit when the calls came in.

One thing I'm learning is that things are never easy to see in this game, and it is way too easy to overreact to stuff. I already knew I was below average on social reading.
I also find it amusing that the fact that Bessie seems so townie is the main thing that is concerning about her.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:11 am UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:Last night I targeted MoA and Bessie. They are both aligned. Therefore, I feel like Bessie, MoA, and Sabrar are all town, unless 2 are mafia and 1 is indie. I targeted MoA and Bessie because I was at the very end of night and didn't know who to target.


So how did you come up with those two? Were you scumreading either of them? Townreading? Random number generator?

Why haven't you posted any reads this game?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby bessie » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:16 am UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:@bessie - Yellow labs are great. One of my favorite breeds.
Woof! And (1) yes; (2) no.

Mark_Cangila wrote:No coal for me.
Ok, how about some reads instead? Please make some posts.

Vicarin wrote:Almost 1/3rd of the way into D3, and we've got 2 or 3 posts from most people today? What on earth?

Everyone, put out some more content, especially reads! Last year had almost twice the content with about half the players on their D3 LYLO after 2 days.
There was a lot of content D1 and D2. :lol: Too bad you missed it! :P And, um, yeah, D3 was a little longer than it should have been last year. :wink:

SuicideJunkie wrote:On review I'm liking Laserguy even less.
Suggesting I'm scum if daychat because I'm new makes even more sense if he knew daychat existed and that I wasn't part of it. My posting hours certainly haven't helped that impression.
Can you link to the post(s) to which you are referring?

moody7277 wrote:I don't see any strong interactions with any particular person. Right now I'd put him at a +3.
That’s a pretty high rating (I think). Can you post an updated town-scum so I can see how that compares to everyone else?

SuicideJunkie wrote:One thing I'm learning is that things are never easy to see in this game, and it is way too easy to overreact to stuff. I already knew I was below average on social reading.
I also find it amusing that the fact that Bessie seems so townie is the main thing that is concerning about her.
If this game was easy, we probably wouldn’t be playing it.
I’m starting to wonder why you have such a strong town read on me. What have I done that is particularly townie?

D3 post count:
Spoiler:
bessie: 3
LaserGuy: 5
Mark_Cangila: 2
MasterOfAll: 6
moody7277: 5
Sabrar: 3
SuicideJunkie: 5
Vicarin: 12

Unofficial votals:

LaserGuy (2) : Vicarin, SuicideJunkie
SuicideJunkie (1) : Sabrar

Not voting : bessie, LaserGuy, Mark_Cangila, MasterOfAll
Can’t vote : moody7277

Ninja'd.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:17 am UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:On review I'm liking Laserguy even less.
Suggesting I'm scum if daychat because I'm new makes even more sense if he knew daychat existed and that I wasn't part of it. My posting hours certainly haven't helped that impression.


This is an interesting misinterpretation of what I said. I'm not sure how you think your posting hours are relevant one way or the other.

Laser was very quick to jump on my Madge vote too.


This is definitely a thing that I did. Why do you feel this is scummy?

Aiming to get Boom lynched with Mark if Mark is scum.


This is definitely a thing that I did. I'll freely admit it will probably look really bad for me if Mark flips Town and there's not really anything I can do about that, but why is this scummy if Mark is scum?

Seems subtly protective of MoA. The fact that wam did vote for MoA in the RVS sounds like a practical thing to do, but I'm .


I'm curious to know what the end of this sentence is supposed to read. Do you think MoA is scum?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:29 am UTC

Speculation

- Nobody is taking responsibility for the 2nd nk so it must be scum-controlled. We don't have room for a Vig and Town should have already come forward to help us clarify the situation.
- I am assuming that Mafia doesn't have access to a factional mechanic that modifies their nk (not included in wam's flip plus don't see the mods adding it on their own).
- Therefore it is either a player-submitted ability (like poison) or an SK.
- If it's player-submitted additional kill then we shouldn't have any indies with additional nk-s like SK. Also I would have hoped for the player having actually submitted the ability to at least talk about the possibility if they were town (difficult because of rule 7 but not impossible).
- So I think it's either scum-submitted additional kill ending up in the hands of scum or we truly have an SK (probably but not necessarily with some limitations due to no death N1, like poison, Arsonist or even-night).
- We can potentially rule out the player-submitted ability if LaserGuy switches bessie and moody tonight (I originally wanted you to test MasterOfAll because GF-possibility makes Cop-results somewhat untrustworthy and I still feel he's someone to be monitored closely). It also requires us to not lynch LaserGuy today and instead go for SuicideJunkie who is completely uncooperative with an unknown ability and is just ignoring me completely.
- Due to the possibility of 2 deaths overnight Vicarin's ability becomes very dangerous to use, it could put us beyond LYLO if town loses a vote or if scum gets double-vote. The only way to prevent this (and also not interfering with LaserGuy) is for him to block me tonight (obviously).
- Mark should probably compare LaserGuy and myself
- I'm actually fine with either of our Cops being killed tonight, their flip (hidden mechanics included) would make us see clearly on whether we can trust their results.
- I'm also fine with dying tonight, it would mean Cop(s) getting additional result(s) and having a solid basis for comparison. Though it's probable Mark would have to be lynched to see if you can trust him.
- I still don't understand why BoomFrog was killed last night, I would have gone after him extremely hard due to being validated by wam's flip. He can't have been poisoned/doused N1 because rolestopper. I mean maybe SK wanted to get rid of another scum??? Or I could (as usual) overestimate my impact.
- 8-3-1, 9-2-1 or 9-3. 8-3-1 seems very rough for Town due to scum having day-chat and able to discuss submitted roles, plus SK should have additional protection as well for balance reasons. Also means we would be 4-2-1 and basically at LYLO.
- I'm convinced Mark can't be wam's buddy. If he's scum then he must be SK. Also he needs to be prodded soon.
- I'm almost sure that MasterOfAll can't be wam's buddy either but this shouldn't be taken for granted.
- Based on tone and content I have moody and Vicarin as town. That's not reliable though.
- additional case against SuicideJunkie at a later time if necessary

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:09 am UTC

"Do, what should we do to destroy that mouse, everyone?" asked Sir Jimbob.

"I propose we send another knight to take it on. I think Sir LaserGuy should have the honour," replied Sir Vicarin.

"Wait, who are you?"


Votals:

LaserGuy(2): Vicarin, SuicideJunkie
SuicideJunkie(1): Sabrar

Not voting: Bessie, MasterOfAll, moody7277, Mark_Cangila, SuicideJunkie

With 8 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch (due to moody7277 not having a vote).

Deadline will be 8pm UTC, Monday the 7th of January 2019. Deadline clock to follow later.
Last edited by jimbobmacdoodle on Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:53 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:57 am UTC

I'm not currently voting. I believe SJ is voting for me.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:53 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I'm not currently voting. I believe SJ is voting for me.

Oops, yes. Fixed. Serves me right for trying to post votals via my phone!
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:54 am UTC

Would still like firm theories about what happened N1 and how to explain all of the cop results from people who haven't already given them. Especially from LaserGuy, who seems to be putting up a very weak defense of himself right now. Really need them from SuicideJunkie and Mark (who seems to be AWOL) as well.

@bessie: what's your theorized scum team looking like?

@Sabrar: using the roleblock isn't actually too dangerous as far as I can tell, as it'd require me to hit a scum member which isn't performing a kill for it to end up making it worse for us than it would be otherwise (which isn't going to happen if the setup was 9-2-1, and isn't too likely if the setup was 8-3-1 or 9-3). Agree that me protecting someone tonight is rather risky though.

I'm thinking full claims from the remaining unclaimed players are in order by now. We're decently close to having a solid town block, and we've got wam's actions to work off.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:58 pm UTC

That’s a pretty high rating (I think). Can you post an updated town-scum so I can see how that compares to everyone else?


The scale runs from +10 to -10, so not really high.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:21 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:Would still like firm theories about what happened N1 and how to explain all of the cop results from people who haven't already given them.


I thought it was obvious from context, but very well, what I think happened N1 is 1) mafia targeted either BoomFrog or bulletproof SK and were blocked; 2) SK either targeted BoomFrog or withheld.

The cop results I'm incorporating into my analysis as I go. I think the most likely candidates for mafia are SJ and bessie; most likely candidate for SK is Mark, followed by Sabrar. In the latter case, Sabrar would need to be either GF, or possibly immune to all night actions (explaining the missing messages) in such a way that it obfuscates the cop results in a similar manner to a GF.

Especially from LaserGuy, who seems to be putting up a very weak defense of himself right now.


In the very limited time I have available to play right now, I'd rather focus my attention on more productive things, like finding scum.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:23 pm UTC

I guess there's also an edge case where wam redirected the SK and the kill ended up going to BoomFrog (unlikely as this would imply the SK was going after SJ), or back on themself.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby MasterOfAll » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:56 pm UTC

wam's mirror ability may not be the only redirect-type ability in the game. So, it might be an even more convoluted path to no NK on N1. Also, Mark's original protect-or-block role might not be the only role that can prevent a kill. So I don't think we have nearly enough info now to determine if it was some combination of our abilities that prevented both NKs on N1 or if it had more to do with constraints on the NKs and how scum chose to use them.

I highly doubt that Sabrar is immune to all night actions every night, as that seems OP and I expect would be the sort of thing that the mods would have twerked if submitted. Also, mpolo got a result targeting Sabrar and I on N1.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby MasterOfAll » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:58 pm UTC

Ah, I didn't finish my first thought there. I meant to add that it is probably best if we assume for now that there will be 2 unconstrained NKs each night.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:25 pm UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:I highly doubt that Sabrar is immune to all night actions every night, as that seems OP and I expect would be the sort of thing that the mods would have twerked if submitted. Also, mpolo got a result targeting Sabrar and I on N1.


I am assuming that it is possible that an SK has inherent abilities that are independent of submitted roles, e.g. Godfather or Bulletproof.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby dimochka » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:45 pm UTC

Updating primarily to add the Deadline clock.

Votals:

LaserGuy(2): Vicarin, SuicideJunkie
SuicideJunkie(1): Sabrar

Not voting: Bessie, MasterOfAll, moody7277, Mark_Cangila, LaserGuy

With 8 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch (due to moody7277 not having a vote).

Deadline will be 8pm UTC, Monday the 7th of January 2019, in about 3 days and 1 hour.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:27 pm UTC

@LaserGuy: Given how my ability is worded, I think if one of the targets was commuting that I wouldn't get a result at all, so I'm pretty sure Sabrar doesn't have an ability like that.

Your GF SK theory for Sabrar would also make Moody's result not make any sense (assuming you think both bessie and SJ are mafia). On the other hand, do you really think SK Mark would lie about a cop result that implies one of his targets is mafia? Why would he try to help bessie?


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