Wams belated simple game - Day 3

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:58 pm UTC

Not anymore. We had a three way tie until moody voted somitomi.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:05 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Not anymore. We had a three way tie until moody voted somitomi.
Oh right, yeah. Not that I can prove it, but I would have voted LaserGuy in that case.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:11 pm UTC

You didn't, though. So it looks like you were confident in your survival.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby wam » Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:14 pm UTC

that's deadline, somitomi has been lynched.

It is now night 1

Night 1 will be 48 hours long
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby wam » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:44 pm UTC

somitomi was lynched they were vanilla town

Bessie was night killed they were vanilla town.

It is now day2.

7 alive 4 to lynch.

Deadline in 7 days
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:56 pm UTC

Everybody vote LaserGuy
Everybody vote LaserGuy
Everybody vote LaserGuy

Vote: LaserGuy

Everybody vote LaserGuy
Everybody vote LaserGuy
Everybody vote LaserGuy

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby moody7277 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:07 pm UTC

Anxious puppy needs some Sleepy Time tea badly.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:31 pm UTC

Here are reads I made overnight of bessie and moody (day start pseudo-ninja renders the first of these invalid but I don't see any reason to delete it), as I had plenty of time on my bus journeys to make them this time around. There's also a response to plytho's end of day question at the bottom which I didn't have time to answer before the deadline (I was ninja'ed by the mod).

Bessie:
Spoiler:
Excited to be playing. Will be playing as Madge meta. Might do some reads over the weekend. D1 sucks. Will claim D2. Sabrar is guardian angel. RVS Madge. Switches RV to somitomi over weirdness and felt like it. Probably last time will RV. Jokes about Sabrar/LG scum remarks. Not masking scum tells. Making them deliberately obvious. Busy. Madge hasn't seemed townie in 4 years. Somitomi read by Sabrar feels forced. Explains somitomi style to me. Questions me about town reading him for it. Points out reason for Sabrar code question. Joke response to Sabrar question re LaserGuy. Questions Sabrar random character string. Prods me over Sabrar town read due to questions. Prods further at Sabrar somitomi read and code comments. Responds to Sabrar comments about finding certain quotes townie. Rereading. Reads list: unsure how to read LG; doesn't agree with Sabrar points. Still thinking about Sabrar; buddy vibe possibly due to v1 game. Me scummy or rusty; asks me why I find her in top two votables; finds my content around somitomi odd. Interesting somitomi gave up gambit so early, but not giving scum point because reason is valid until going on defensive. Somitomi not reading carefully, maintains vote on him. Responds to my Sabrar question explanation. Comments on difficulty of reading Sabrar and LaserGuy. Questioning authenticity of somitomi reads. Gut ordered list with Sabrar, plytho towniest, me, somitomi scummiest. Doesn't like my defensive vote comment. Doesn't like Sabrar comments about LaserGuy and interactions with him. Interesting how many people not moved their vote. Wants to know why she should live with Sabrar meta reads. Surprised by mpolo comments about her. Waiting for Sabrar ordered list.
In one of my infamous early statements, I questioned whether bessie might be playing Madge's meta to mask scum tells. Since then, I've decided it's unlikely, mostly because it was confirmed that she previously announced that she would, but also, I think she would have leaned more heavily into it, rather than largely abandoning it when she did. Overall, I'm feeling okay with her, with one exception, namely that her placement of Sabrar as second towniest is odd given most of her reads seem to paint him as slightly scummy. Still, enough for a slight town lean.

@bessie - please explain your positioning of Sabrar in your ordered list.

Moody:
Spoiler:
RVS mpolo. Confused but not surprised by LaserGuy's vote on him. Comments on preferred setup. Somitomi Hitchhiker stuff fun but not reading anything into it. Shame on me for not understanding it. Explains somitomi read. Thinks knows why LaserGuy wanted to test him (too hard to read). Solid town leans from plytho and Sabrar. Reads list: bessie slightly town; me neutral; LaserGuy moderately townie; Madge slightly townie with high error bars; mpolo must do better; plytho and Sabrar firmly town; somitomi neutralise with high error bars. Somitomi content improving, but waffle re. me needs keeping in mind. Notes major trends. Explains somitomi concern more. Asks Madge about LaserGuy's case on me. Somitomi and mpolo top scummiest. Somitomi worst read of people with three votes, so votes him.
Like many players, I'm never particularly confident in my read of moody. Nothing particularly stands out to me from his content, aside from the lack of any strong scum reads in his reads list besides mpolo. If somitomi flips scum, almost certainly not buddies with him (be could have manufactured a reason to push me over the edge). I'm not sure that a somitomi town flip really would be all that damning of him. His comments there seem okay to me, although I still disagree that somitomi would play this way as scum. I'm more confident in my scum reads of other players, so I'm putting moody at slightly town, but could easily slip into scummy territory.

plytho wrote:You didn't, though. So it looks like you were confident in your survival.
I knew I'd have time later on to place a vote once I'd reread somitomi and LaserGuy, which presumably would have been enough. I don't like rushing votes if I don't absolutely have to.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:55 pm UTC

Hmm... I think I'm going to pencil this in for right now.

Vote: Madge

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:00 pm UTC

Slightly revised ordered lists taking into account flips and moody read:

Town
Sabrar
Madge
moody
LaserGuy
mpolo
plytho
Scum

I'm having trouble ordering the bottom three at the moment. The town flip of somitomi doesn't really help because FMPOV, everybody except Sabrar and Madge were voting confirmed town. If LaserGuy or moody ever flip scum I guess it would implicate the other more, what with moody's vote being the thing that killed off somitomi and prevented LaserGuy from being lynched.

@LaserGuy - why the Madge vote?
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:04 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:FMPOV, everybody except Sabrar and Madge were voting confirmed town.
AHA! So you know I'm town! Gotcha!

I'm tired now but I'll think about stuff tomorrow.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:21 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:FMPOV, everybody except Sabrar and Madge were voting confirmed town.
AHA! So you know I'm town! Gotcha!

I'm tired now but I'll think about stuff tomorrow.
Lol, okay, yeah that post is messed up (though I didn't include myself in it, so you're point is invalid). Madge was also voting confirmed town (bessie, though I think it was merely an RVS), so technically only Sabrar (and me) was voting someone who isn't confirmed town. I blame tiredness. I should go to bed.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby moody7277 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:32 pm UTC

Putting up the end of day votals, since they are on the last page and seem to be the trending discussion:

Bessie - 1 - madge,
Somitomi - 3 - Bessie, laserguy, moody7277
Jimbobmacdoodle - 2 - plytho, mpolo
Laserguy - 2 - sabrar, somitomi
Plytho - 1 - Jimbobmacdoodle

Not that those are immediately helpful. LaserGuy was already voting one of the people with 2 votes, while jimbob wasn't and where he did his defensive vote might have been educational. Mea culpa.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:08 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Everybody vote LaserGuy
Everybody vote LaserGuy
Everybody vote LaserGuy

Vote: LaserGuy

Everybody vote LaserGuy
Everybody vote LaserGuy
Everybody vote LaserGuy


:|
Are you even going to pretend you're trying to solve this game?

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Madge » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:59 am UTC

Why are we voting LaserGuy?

Bessie failed at being me because I never get nked....

Waiting before I say anything.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:58 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Are you even going to pretend you're trying to solve this game?
You're using 'solve' erroneously here. There are no night-result claims and no scum-flips to help us find a buddy. So we're voting based on our reads and you are scum. Plus you're voting my biggest town-read.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:06 am UTC

Madge wrote:Why are we voting LaserGuy?
Just sheep me for an easy win. :lol:

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:53 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Madge wrote:Why are we voting LaserGuy?
Just sheep me for an easy win. :lol:
Madge always sheep's you anyway :roll: :lol:

@Sabrar - Who would be your second choice as scum?

Madge wrote:Waiting before I say anything.
Is this with regards to LaserGuy's vote? Why are you waiting to respond?

LaserGuy, you didn't answer my question.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:56 am UTC

mpolo by a large margin. Next is plytho and you in roughly the same position, followed by moody. Madge is town.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:32 am UTC

Actually that margin isn't so large. I could see either of you as buddies and some reason for any of you to be town.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:20 am UTC

@plytho: give me an ordered list. Also who do you think would kill bessie here?

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:55 pm UTC

Some thoughts on the wagons...

These tallies were 5 hours from deadline.

Bessie - 1 - madge,
Mpolo - 1 - moody7277
Somitomi - 2 - Bessie, laserguy
Jimbobmacdoodle - 2 - plytho, mpolo
Laserguy - 2 - sabrar, somitomi
Plytho - 1 - Jimbobmacdoodle


Only movement between that and deadline was moody.

Bessie - 1 - madge,
Somitomi - 3 - Bessie, laserguy, moody7277
Jimbobmacdoodle - 2 - plytho, mpolo
Laserguy - 2 - sabrar, somitomi
Plytho - 1 - Jimbobmacdoodle


Given that I'm Town, bessie is Town, and somitomi is Town, it is likely that jimbob is also Town. I don't think scum!jimbob would have left the vote tied so close to the deadline, and I think it's more likely he would have added his vote to one of the leading Town wagons to ensure a lynch. jimbob basically can't be buddies with mpolo or plytho, and I feel like Madge's vote probably would have found its way on to a leading wagon if her partner were in danger. The only plausible buddies for jimbob are moody and Sabrar, who I am pretty sure are both Town. (I will leave as an exercise to Sabrar to prove the symmetrical argument that given bessie, somitomi and jimbob Town, it follows that I am as well).

I'm kind of liking plytho for scum. He stands out as someone who did not seem particularly invested in the outcome of the lynch. He wasn't really pushing his preferred wagon and didn't seem to have any real problem with any of them going through (even though he was townreading me). This feels like scum looking at three townie wagons and no danger to him or his buddy. Contrast his much more aggressive Town play from e.g. B99, Secret Santa, Meta Mafia, etc. Most plausible buddy is Madge, followed by mpolo.

There's an interesting possibility of mpolo/Madge as scum. This would also be fairly consistent with passive scum letting Town tear itself apart. Madge has a lot of interactions with mpolo's content, which in and of itself is kind of interesting. I think there's a decent chance of this being the case.

Basically I'm looking at plytho/Madge, Madge/mpolo or mpolo/plytho in rough order of likelihood

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:39 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I don't think scum!jimbob would have left the vote tied so close to the deadline,
This is wrong, there were 3 hours left until deadline when jimbob posted. Also, he probably could have counted on his buddy to save him (except if that buddy would be Madge but Madge is town).

(I will leave as an exercise to Sabrar to prove the symmetrical argument that given bessie, somitomi and jimbob Town, it follows that I am as well).
Nope, the symmetry does not apply because you could easily be buddies with mpolo or plytho, whom you excluded in jimbob's case because they were attacking him. I'm not too surprised you did not notice the huge flaw in your argument given that you're scum.

Most plausible buddy is Madge,
You still haven't presented any argument why Madge would be scum.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:32 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I don't think scum!jimbob would have left the vote tied so close to the deadline,
This is wrong, there were 3 hours left until deadline when jimbob posted. Also, he probably could have counted on his buddy to save him (except if that buddy would be Madge but Madge is town).


Scum does not have daychat and cannot coordinate this so well. jimbob would be relying on timezone/real-life issues not interfering without knowing for certain if his buddy would show up.

(I will leave as an exercise to Sabrar to prove the symmetrical argument that given bessie, somitomi and jimbob Town, it follows that I am as well).
Nope, the symmetry does not apply because you could easily be buddies with mpolo or plytho, whom you excluded in jimbob's case because they were attacking him. I'm not too surprised you did not notice the huge flaw in your argument given that you're scum.[/quote]

If I were scum with either of them then we would have lynched jimbob because I would have needed to vote defensively. Feel free to try the exercise again after the game and see if you get the right answer.

Most plausible buddy is Madge,
You still haven't presented any argument why Madge would be scum.


PoE based on the remaining candidates and likely pairings.

You haven't presented any argument as to why she would be Town.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:41 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:If I were scum with either of them then we would have lynched jimbob because I would have needed to vote defensively.
You were online, you could have made that switch much closer to deadline but lucky for you moody switched first so you didn't have to. Also, you could be scum with jimbob.

LaserGuy wrote:PoE based on the remaining candidates and likely pairings.
Yeah, no. You made your vote right at day-start, you only analyzed votals 18 hours later. Unless you claim that you made that complete analysis immediately after the flips but for some reason didn't post it until later.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:12 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:If I were scum with either of them then we would have lynched jimbob because I would have needed to vote defensively.


You were online, you could have made that switch much closer to deadline but lucky for you moody switched first so you didn't have to. Also, you could be scum with jimbob.


Or I could be Town and you're completely barking up the wrong tree, just like in Fridge, NNY, and Stellaris (maybe others?). The possibilities are endless :shock:. I do find it interesting that your confirmation bias gets in the way of your logic circuits though.

LaserGuy wrote:PoE based on the remaining candidates and likely pairings.
Yeah, no. You made your vote right at day-start, you only analyzed votals 18 hours later. Unless you claim that you made that complete analysis immediately after the flips but for some reason didn't post it until later.


I quickly looked at a few different scenarios overnight and concluded that Town!somitomi likely meant passive scum, probably Madge or mpolo. Post-flip I went back and analyzed in more detail.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:28 pm UTC

FoS LaserGuy

I feel like he was dodging my question re. the Madge vote explanation, and at first read, I agree with Sabrar. Might promote to a vote or completely withdraw once I've had a chance to digest the argument a bit more over the next couple of hours. Currently leaning towards the former, but I'm holding back, because I'm getting tunnelling pings from Sabrar a bit.

I know it's not even 24 hours into D2, but I'm still not happy with the lurkiness of most players this game day. plytho, moody's and Madge's content has been minimal so far, and mpolo hasn't posted once in that time.

@moody and mpolo: what do you think about LaserGuy versus Sabrar?
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:37 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:because I'm getting tunnelling pings from Sabrar a bit.
Oh I'm definitely tunneling. Mainly because in my last two town-games my initial gut-reads were on the point and so I'm trusting it more. Also it's interesting that LaserGuy went from 'mpolo is absolutely townie' to 'mpolo is in the bottom three' with only PoE given as reason. He doesn't even bring up his questions to him here. Conveniently he's pushing Madge/plytho first...

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby moody7277 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:43 pm UTC

Well, my 30,000 foot view of it is that Sabrar is running around like the insanity puppy meme his avatar reminds my of, while LaserGuy has been (pretending to be?) reasonable. I'll put Cynical View on a post by post of LaserGuy to see if I can get what Sabrar is seeing in him.

@Sabrar: could you pretend to be SDK for a few hours and put together a logical case on LaserGuy that might actually convince people?
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:52 pm UTC

I'm here, time to get some thoughts out:

Sabrar wrote:@plytho: give me an ordered list. Also who do you think would kill bessie here?

I think bessie was a fine target for pretty much anyone. The one exception may be Madge.

Quick list mostly gut:

Sabrar: I don't feel like he's manipulating us
Madge: I don't feel like she'd kill bessie because of the links.
moody: sealed somitomi's fate
mpolo: lingering suspicion
LaserGuy: not making a great impression today. The snap vote on Madge was weird and feels planned.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:24 pm UTC

Going back over Sabrar's and LaserGuy's posts from D2.

LaserGuy's initial reaction to Sabrar's vote is understandable. I can't argue with the fact that I am Town obviously, but I believe that scum!me would have acted similarly, since I was always going to have time to vote, and could have tied up the votals if necessary to save myself, and/or force Town to find a compromise lynch to my advantage. I'm not sure I agree with some of his conclusions re. PoE. I also don't agree that LaserGuy must be Town by the same process, since a) I feel like a LaserGuy/moody team would be plausible given the way the votes went down, and b) LaserGuy prior to moody's somitomi vote had no opportunity to move his vote onto a leading wagon, unlike me, what with it already being on one (he could have moved it onto me, but then I'd have just tied up the votals, and a swing could have put him in just as much danger as me). Also c) what Sabrar said re. mpolo and plytho (there is some credence to LaserGuy's response, but it's not cut and dry, for similar reasons as to why I'm not convinced his logic in clearing me holds up). I don't disagree with the plytho argument as a possibility. I don't feel like Madge is scum currently, so I don't agree with a mpolo/Madge team. I need to review mpolo/plytho to see if that's plausible, but standalone, they are two of my top three scum reads, so I don't feel great that they are the third choice of the possible teams.

@LaserGuy - plytho I get, but why can't scum!me be buddies with mpolo? Why are you so sure moody is town?

Sabrar wrote:Plus you're voting my biggest town-read.
If bessie were still here, she would be not in the least bit surprised by this :lol: Why are you so confident in her being town today?
LaserGuy wrote:Or I could be Town and you're completely barking up the wrong tree, just like in Fridge, NNY, and Stellaris (maybe others?). The possibilities are endless :shock:. I do find it interesting that your confirmation bias gets in the way of your logic circuits though.
This post clearly indicates that LaserGuy has given up arguing, which I can understand if he's getting frustrated with Sabrar, I could see this coming from town or scum. I don't think Sabrar's logic is off, although I don't think it's conclusive on its own.

Also, he never gave a reason for Madge being scum aside from PoE. Given that LaserGuy has picked to pursue her over either mpolo or plytho, he needs to explain it, as both I and Sabrar have asked.

Vote LaserGuy
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:32 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
plytho wrote:You didn't, though. So it looks like you were confident in your survival.
I knew I'd have time later on to place a vote once I'd reread somitomi and LaserGuy, which presumably would have been enough. I don't like rushing votes if I don't absolutely have to.
I disagree it would have been enough. At some point someone was going to vote to break the tie. If that was a vote on you you'd be in big trouble. The only way you'd be able to save yourself is to tie the vote again and hope someone else voted for your target/unvoted you.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I know it's not even 24 hours into D2, but I'm still not happy with the lurkiness of most players this game day. plytho, moody's and Madge's content has been minimal so far, and mpolo hasn't posted once in that time.
Sorry bout that, busy days.
LaserGuy wrote:I quickly looked at a few different scenarios overnight and concluded that Town!somitomi likely meant passive scum
Why?

@LaserGuy: why didn't you vote jimbob near day end?

LaserGuy wrote:Given that I'm Town, bessie is Town, and somitomi is Town, it is likely that jimbob is also Town. I don't think scum!jimbob would have left the vote tied so close to the deadline, and I think it's more likely he would have added his vote to one of the leading Town wagons to ensure a lynch. jimbob basically can't be buddies with mpolo or plytho, and I feel like Madge's vote probably would have found its way on to a leading wagon if her partner were in danger. The only plausible buddies for jimbob are moody and Sabrar, who I am pretty sure are both Town. (I will leave as an exercise to Sabrar to prove the symmetrical argument that given bessie, somitomi and jimbob Town, it follows that I am as well).
This looks pretty circular.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby moody7277 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:41 pm UTC

LaserGuy

Spoiler:
post 0: confirm
post 1: RV Madge (although I like the reasoning on it :P)
post 2: decides to reaction test me since he is troubled by his read on me
post 3: continues reaction test on me, responds to Sabrar's poke that he has left RVS
post 4: seems satisfied with his test of me, moves to voting somi based on discussions with bessie
post 5: response to Sabrar's question on reads re how they are informed
post 6: approves of plytho's vote, firming up his case on jimbob with examples of "rhetorical shade throwing", votes jimbob

Between post 2 where he calls him "probably town" and the post 6 vote, LG asks for plytho's opinion on jimbob and justifies his read as a "gutread". Cynical view: it seems he was already shading jimbob as scummy and was just waiting for support before rolling out the evidence

post 7: linking somi to jimbob, expands reasons for reaction test on me
post 8: wants Sabrar to expand his opinion of somi, explicitly gives the link of the three jimbob posts as trying to open up scumminess on people, T->S with mpolo and Sabrar at top, somi and jimbob at bottom
post 9: refutes jimbob re tunnelling, justifies liking mpolo
post 10: post about bessie mostly, asks somi about jimbob stuff
post 11: response to Sabrar's points against him, trying to avoid distracting conflict. questioning somi

btw, if the post LG quoted to respond to is the kernel of Sabrar's case against him, I can say I'm less than impressed

post 12: responses to Sabrar's answer to post 11

fact-checking some bits would be diving too deep, while the rest is subjective

post 13: detailed reads post, switches somi to most scummy, placement of Sabrar drops noticably but mostly due to read of bessie and plytho
post 14: prompted by Sabrar to explain meta-read
post 15: deadline reminder
post 16: response to mpolo about how LG is scum reading somi

D2
post 17: votes Madge
post 18: frustrated with Sabrar
post 19: wagon analysis, most likely has jimbob town with a couple caveats, plytho most likely scum
post 20: refutes point from Sabrar about jimbob depending on vote shenanigans, also against Sabrar's blanket declaration of town!Madge
post 21: further discussion of wagons and defends voting Madge

Well, Cynical View did his best, but that bit early D1 where he would be retroactively justifying a scummy read of jimbob is about the worst in that, with maybe something about his D2 Madge vote.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Madge » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:41 pm UTC

It's hard to judge sabrar v LaserGuy because my confirmation bias that I'm town basically overshadow everything else in my brain. I feel overall LaserGuy seems more reasonable but that doesn't mean much when his conclusion that I'm scum is wrong, but sabrar logic that I'm town is.... Non-existent

I like jimbob and plythos posts
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:04 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@LaserGuy - plytho I get, but why can't scum!me be buddies with mpolo? Why are you so sure moody is town?


As of this post, mpolo indicated he did not believe that he would be online again before deadline. Choosing to bus you as his buddy here is extremely dubious play when you were already under a fair amount of suspicion. It's not impossible, but I would be very surprised. mpolo could easily have read someone else as scum and dropped his vote there if you were his buddy without making any waves. I also think mpolo would have been looking for alternatives to bussing his buddy here and would not have forgotten somitomi in his reads since he would have been a logical alternative.

For moody, pretty much straight meta: moody's Town play has been very consistent the few games. I don't see any appreciable differences between this game and B99 or SS2018.

Also, he never gave a reason for Madge being scum aside from PoE. Given that LaserGuy has picked to pursue her over either mpolo or plytho, he needs to explain it, as both I and Sabrar have asked.


I already did. Madge is the common player in the most likely scum teams.

plytho wrote:Why?


Maybe it's easier if I just quote from my notes. I'm aware that the conclusions here aren't exactly the same as the analysis I did today; I didn't go back and look at any posts in detail at the time, just made some impressions from the end of day discussion and final votes.
Possibilities:
-> somitomi and jimbob are buddies. somitomi didn't want the lynch to get pushed onto his buddy so just gave up.
-> somitomi is scum and jimbob is not. Unlikely. somitomi would likely have tried to vote to save himself here, though it's fairly unlikely that he would have dodged a lynch. He could have just given up.
-> somitomi is Town and jimbob is scum. jimbob is not concerned about the wagons and doesn't want to rock the boat by forcing a lynch scramble. In this case, jimbob's buddy is likely. Hmm. One of Madge, Sabrar, moody or bessie, I guess. So, probably Madge.
-> somitomi and jimbob are both Town. All three leading wagons are then townie wagons. Scum is probably more passive team that didn't really care about the lynch: Madge, mpolo, maybe moody and outside chance of plytho.


@LaserGuy: why didn't you vote jimbob near day end?


I thought somitomi was more likely to be scum.

This looks pretty circular.


How? In the first part I say, "Given A, B, C, then it follows D". In the second part I say "Given A, B, D, then it follows C".

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:32 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
Also, he never gave a reason for Madge being scum aside from PoE. Given that LaserGuy has picked to pursue her over either mpolo or plytho, he needs to explain it, as both I and Sabrar have asked.


I already did. Madge is the common player in the most likely scum teams.
I explicitly said aside from PoE. Your teams appear to be based largely on PoE. Individually, what has Madge done (or not done) that makes her scummy?
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:42 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
Also, he never gave a reason for Madge being scum aside from PoE. Given that LaserGuy has picked to pursue her over either mpolo or plytho, he needs to explain it, as both I and Sabrar have asked.


I already did. Madge is the common player in the most likely scum teams.
I explicitly said aside from PoE. Your teams appear to be based largely on PoE. Individually, what has Madge done (or not done) that makes her scummy?


You could just look it up. I'll quote the relevant bits for you.

LaserGuy wrote:Madge:

Hmm…. I don’t really feel that Madge is playing to her meta this game. I haven’t quite been able to isolate exactly what I feel is wrong with her content. I think it may be that Madge is giving me a LAMIST (“Look at me, I’m so Town”) vibe than she usually gives off (and not just because she claimed Town). Marking her as scum lean for now because I think something is off, but I’m not sure what yet.

Town
LaserGuy
Bessie
plytho
mpolo
Sabrar
moody
Madge
jimbob
somitomi
Scum

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:45 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Hmm…. I don’t really feel that Madge is playing to her meta this game. I haven’t quite been able to isolate exactly what I feel is wrong with her content.

bessie wrote:Did Madge just make the most Madge post ever? :shock: How will I ever top that???

Madge is typical Madge this game.

@moody: will try to do a complete case tomorrow.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:55 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I thought somitomi was more likely to be scum.
Sure, but you called attention to the tied votals. Why didn't you break the tie yourself?
LaserGuy wrote:How? In the first part I say, "Given A, B, C, then it follows D". In the second part I say "Given A, B, D, then it follows C".
So you're saying jimbob should conclude you're town and not that we should think you're town?
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:29 am UTC

Objectively, I have little against LaserGuy, there are no major scum-slips, his content technically could come from Town as well, especially overconfident!LaserGuy. There are just multiple smallish things:
- His original case for jimbob (which is basically just the 'throwing shade' thing) is valid. I feel he should be more familiar with jimbob's scum-play and know better but obviously that's not really a reason to excuse scummy behavior. (Same can be said for not recognizing Madge-meta when it was pretty obvious.) However the below is just wrong on two accounts in my opinion because a) that post was too short to call it stream-of consciousness and b) jimbob did s-o-c before.
LaserGuy wrote:jimbob doesn’t normally post in this sort of stream-of-consciousness manner as either alignment,

- As mentioned before I don't like how he immediately linked somitomi and jimbob due to my prodding. It's like he didn't consider any alternatives.
- He ignores his D1 reads completely when he switches to PoE ('mpolo is my most townie-read', 'jimbob is scum' -> 'jimbob must be town', 'mpolo is in bottom 3'). Yes, PoE is strong but it needs more evidence behind it than just one day of voting and no scum-flip.
- As also mentioned by plytho, early D2 vote on Madge does not seem natural and his explanation is lacking.
- His vote-analysis is mostly okay from town!LaserGuy's perspectives, still some of his conclusions are wrong as shown before.

LaserGuy wrote:Maybe it's easier if I just quote from my notes. I'm aware that the conclusions here aren't exactly the same as the analysis I did today; I didn't go back and look at any posts in detail at the time, just made some impressions from the end of day discussion and final votes.
Possibilities:
-> somitomi and jimbob are buddies. somitomi didn't want the lynch to get pushed onto his buddy so just gave up.
-> somitomi is scum and jimbob is not. Unlikely. somitomi would likely have tried to vote to save himself here, though it's fairly unlikely that he would have dodged a lynch. He could have just given up.
-> somitomi is Town and jimbob is scum. jimbob is not concerned about the wagons and doesn't want to rock the boat by forcing a lynch scramble. In this case, jimbob's buddy is likely. Hmm. One of Madge, Sabrar, moody or bessie, I guess. So, probably Madge.
-> somitomi and jimbob are both Town. All three leading wagons are then townie wagons. Scum is probably more passive team that didn't really care about the lynch: Madge, mpolo, maybe moody and outside chance of plytho.
I find this to be his most townie-content so far. Could be faked though.

Subjectively, I feel his tone is not as relaxed as in some of his previous townie-games (even on D1 when I didn't frustrate him so much). And of course my gut says so and I like to listen to my gut nowadays.


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