Unlikely Superheroes (Endgame)

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bessie
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby bessie » Mon May 27, 2019 3:06 am UTC

somitomi wrote:Um, I would be okay with such a "reminder" if I had posted anything since you disapproved of my reply. But I didn't, I wasn't even away for that long, yet you have impatiently demanded an asnwer not once, but twice. What gives?
Sorry, when I made this post I thought I saw you online so I decided to ping you. When you didn’t answer I thought you were ignoring me.

somitomi wrote:
bessie wrote:You didn’t answer the question. What element(s) was so ridiculous in my setup spec that made you certain I was incorrect? What, in your opinion, made my setup spec invalid?

Again, it wasn't the setup spec itself or any element of it (although that BoomFrog lover thing was a bit out there), but the amount of information it was based on. Yeah, semantically that might not be an answer to your question, but I think you're being unreasonable at this point.
Town!you had no reason not consider my setup spec as a possibility. Based on publicly available information on D2, there was nothing that made my setup spec automatically invalid. True, no one else was completely behind my guess, but no one had outright dismissed it except Vicarin (on D1) and jimbobmacdoodle.

Anyway, I was typing this up to get my thoughts together, and trying to figure out if you did indeed have a reason you knew my setup spec wasn’t correct, because your responses to me have felt so off. Your odd :P here, when you had given no indication on D2 that you believed me to be wrong. Your inability (or unwillingness) to answer a direct question from me to point to what you found wrong with my setup spec in this post. And in your latest post all you have to say is that the BoomFrog thing is “out there” before you throw it back on me for being “unreasonable”. The lover idea was not “out there” it was a reasonable guess for a third “half mafia” role. Day vig is not unreasonable, with mafia only having one other kill. What is it that you want so badly to discredit about my setup spec?

My D2 Setup guess was 8-3, detailed here (underlining added).
bessie wrote: bessie's detailed setup spec:

Apps of Destruction
Abilities: Day chat, factional one-shot night kill, cops as “something non human” to investigations.
App #1 Vicarin: Vote Thief
App #2 SuicideJunkie: Unblockable one-shot day kill
App #3 BoomFrog: Unrequited lover of bessie*
. . .
the Church of Moo is the McGuffin.


somitomi, if someone were to investigate your species, do you have any reason to believe you would not appear as human?

Same question to jimbobmacdoodle, but only after somitomi answers.

somitomi wrote:
bessie wrote:somitomi, in regards to this post I made on D1, which is it, BoomFrog or Vicarin?

Neither. Moody has done a nice job explaining why I'm not BoomFrog's buddy and I don't see any way to prove I'm not Vicarin's mate.
Why would you care about proving either? I don’t think that’s a townie mindset. See this post, you can skim it for your name.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby somitomi » Mon May 27, 2019 9:51 am UTC

bessie wrote:Town!you had no reason not consider my setup spec as a possibility. Based on publicly available information on D2, there was nothing that made my setup spec automatically invalid. True, no one else was completely behind my guess, but no one had outright dismissed it except Vicarin (on D1) and jimbobmacdoodle.

Anyway, I was typing this up to get my thoughts together, and trying to figure out if you did indeed have a reason you knew my setup spec wasn’t correct, because your responses to me have felt so off. Your odd :P here, when you had given no indication on D2 that you believed me to be wrong. Your inability (or unwillingness) to answer a direct question from me to point to what you found wrong with my setup spec in this post. And in your latest post all you have to say is that the BoomFrog thing is “out there” before you throw it back on me for being “unreasonable”. The lover idea was not “out there” it was a reasonable guess for a third “half mafia” role. Day vig is not unreasonable, with mafia only having one other kill.

I didn't know your setup spec was incorrect and I didn't have the absolute certainty you keep putting in my mouth (see here for example). But I thought the particular setup you suggested wasn't very likely for the following reasons:
  • it was based on very little information
  • a sort of consenus settled on multiball being more likely than one mafia
  • one mafia with a single one-shot kill seemed weak (the lover is "a bit out there" (emphasis added) as it's adding another handicap).
The first one influenced me the most, so that was my answer to your question and I still think arguing that I didn't name an element of the setup I considered wrong is nitpicking atbest. You could've nailed the setup right there and I would've considered it unlikely on D2, because there wasn't enough public information to make that particular setup more likely than any other flavour of 8-3 or even to make 8-3 more likely than multiball. Not because that particular setup is less likely than any other setup, but because there were a lot of possible setups at that point, so any particular one had low probability.
Spoiler:
On the :P thing: we use these smilies in a Discord server and I picked up the habit of using this smiley to indicate that I'm just teasing someone. On reflection that can be unclear.

bessie wrote:What is it that you want so badly to discredit about my setup spec?

What? Why would I want to do that? More importantly, why would I need to do that?
bessie wrote:somitomi, if someone were to investigate your species, do you have any reason to believe you would not appear as human?

No.
bessie wrote:Why would you care about proving either? I don’t think that’s a townie mindset. See this post, you can skim it for your name.

I don't know what kind of answer you expected other than "neither" and I mentioned proving because moody posted that analysis and there's not much I could add to that regarding Vic.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon May 27, 2019 3:22 pm UTC

Quick drive-by response:
bessie wrote:somitomi, if someone were to investigate your species, do you have any reason to believe you would not appear as human?

Same question to jimbobmacdoodle, but only after somitomi answers.
No, no indication of that whatsoever. Why do you ask?
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby bessie » Mon May 27, 2019 4:18 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Quick drive-by response:
bessie wrote:somitomi, if someone were to investigate your species, do you have any reason to believe you would not appear as human?

Same question to jimbobmacdoodle, but only after somitomi answers.
No, no indication of that whatsoever. Why do you ask?
Because of the three flips we have, the two non-town flips are not human, and there is nothing in the town flip to indicate that it would investigate as non human. How did you miss this?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Mon May 27, 2019 5:09 pm UTC

Some comments on Sabrar's options for what happened last night.
1) I can't see why Dimochka would have any reason to protect me. Even if he was sure I was town, lying would be counterproductive, and I doubt it would be effective regardless.
2) Lying about the moo target does seem odd. Maybe drawing out redirection claims? Blocking me seemed like the safe consensus option, and one that none of the scumteams should have had a problem with unless they wanted to throw even more suspicion on me.
3) I don't follow this. If Moody was mooed, and lying about it, then how does that make him Vicarin's buddy? If Moody was mooed, then the roleblock would have prevented use of the factional night kill.
4) Another possibility is that Bessie protected Moody from the recruitment?

bessie wrote:Thoughts about the claim itself. As already noted, the disadvantages don’t relate to the power. Again, not a rule, but is it sloppy design? I can see #2, if it was the result of SuicideJunkie's power. See Lawrencelot’s role in Misnomer’s Smalltown PYP. #3 just makes no sense to me. Ninja is a scum power, not a town power. Town doesn’t need it, because town doesn’t need to prove they’re town by being seen places where there is no night kill. They don’t need to prove they’re town at all. SuicideJunkie's mindset with regards to this is non-town (see also somitomi here). Townies can be cleared by investigators, but they shouldn’t be actively trying to be cleared, and investigators shouldn’t be actively trying to clear town. Townies should be focusing on finding scum, with clearing town sort of a consolation prize for a wrong guess.

I think there must be some elements of truth in SuicideJunkie’s claims, if for no other reason than it’s easier to keep up the lie if there’s some truth in it. Vicarin’s power and win condition were related to votes and voting. SuicideJunkie has claimed a vote-related disadvantage, and has been focused on votes the entire game, I think he’s probably Vicarin’s partner, and has some vote related power.
I'm not super clear on how the power ties into the disadvantages mechanically, but story-wise it is all about bad luck. And being the scapegoat because of that. #2 fits right in with the luck theme; people die around me and I get blamed for it despite having nothing to do with the piano hoisting or lack of danger cones on the sidewalk. #3 is a side effect of #2. I'm only seen next to dead people. I wasn't expecting that bit, but Laserguy clarified that part when I was asking about the possibilities of being seen in many places at once.
Town definitely doesn't need it, I'd agree. And I'd be better off without it, but that's just my luck!

bessie wrote:Because of the three flips we have, the two non-town flips are not human, and there is nothing in the town flip to indicate that it would investigate as non human. How did you miss this?
That is interesting. Villain teams are well known to pull from a wide variety of sources while hero teams are generally humanoid, but frequently include mutants, aliens, gods and robots.
In this case, Apps could easily have a human hacker helping them or being their creator.
The eldritch forces team could have a human summoner. (Such as a religious fanatic)

I don't see how that helps any; unless you're a DNA scanner meta-cop, it is pretty meaningless mechanically, and even then it is a bit sketchy.

In case you're wondering, I myself have no indications that I'm not human other than the tremendous luck.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Mon May 27, 2019 5:31 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:Some comments on Sabrar's options for what happened last night.
Why waste your content on things that have already been cleared up?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby bessie » Mon May 27, 2019 5:56 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:I didn't know your setup spec was incorrect and I didn't have the absolute certainty you keep putting in my mouth (see here for example). But I thought the particular setup you suggested wasn't very likely for the following reasons:
  • it was based on very little information
  • a sort of consenus settled on multiball being more likely than one mafia
  • one mafia with a single one-shot kill seemed weak (the lover is "a bit out there" (emphasis added) as it's adding another handicap).

1. I have a fair track record of guessing the setup with very little information, sometimes in my first post. Sure I missed this game, but I didn’t know that until D3. No one else should have discarded it as an option, excluding the four(?) people who knew I was wrong.
2. The setup isn’t determined by consensus. I mean really, you are actually using as a reason that the consensus settled on multiball, so I must be wrong? This is such a bad reason and it pings me very strongly.
3. Already explained here.
bessie wrote:I think that everyone that is focusing on the one-shot kill and theorizing that there must be another killing faction because hey it’s mafia so night kills are required is not considering how strong a vote thief is in a small game. If Vicarin made it to the end, it would be as good as a NK.
With an 8-3 setup, town has two mislynches and weak powers (the consensus had settled on weak town powers, so it must be true, right?). If mafia had two kills and a vote thief, it might be enough. At 4-3 mafia could force a tied vote. Hmmm.....

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby somitomi » Mon May 27, 2019 8:18 pm UTC

bessie wrote:1. I have a fair track record of guessing the setup with very little information, sometimes in my first post. Sure I missed this game, but I didn’t know that until D3. No one else should have discarded it as an option, excluding the four(?) people who knew I was wrong.

You keep thinking I was certain you were wrong on D2. I wasn't, so stop it.
Speaking of which, why aren't you all up in Jimbob's business? Apparently he was pretty sure you were wrong about the setup. Yet, I'm the lucky one to receive your undivided attention.
Hmmm...
2. The setup isn’t determined by consensus. I mean really, you are actually using as a reason that the consensus settled on multiball, so I must be wrong? This is such a bad reason and it pings me very strongly.

Sure, consensus doesn't determine the setup, but it's some kind of indicator. Let's call this statement "A": Most players consider multiball the most likely. Logically the probability of A is higher in a multiball game than a non-multiball one (some players actually know the setup), so if it's true (and it was) then the game is slightly more likely to be multiball than not. It's far from being decisive or anything, but then it wasn't my main argument, just a little supporting one.
And once again, I was never even close to a "must" level of certainty.
3. Already explained here.
bessie wrote:I think that everyone that is focusing on the one-shot kill and theorizing that there must be another killing faction because hey it’s mafia so night kills are required is not considering how strong a vote thief is in a small game. If Vicarin made it to the end, it would be as good as a NK.
With an 8-3 setup, town has two mislynches and weak powers (the consensus had settled on weak town powers, so it must be true, right?). If mafia had two kills and a vote thief, it might be enough. At 4-3 mafia could force a tied vote. Hmmm.....

...wait what? The mafia in your original setup spec had only one kill. Anyway, I think that's a pretty big "if", since (assuming one kill) mafia would have to get through three days unscathed to arrive at 4-3. Seems like a very small room for error on mafia's part while town gets two mislynches, but YMMV.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby somitomi » Mon May 27, 2019 8:43 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:Sure, consensus doesn't determine the setup, but it's some kind of indicator. Let's call this statement "A": Most players consider multiball the most likely. Logically the probability of A is higher in a multiball game than a non-multiball one (some players actually know the setup), so if it's true (and it was) then the game is slightly more likely to be multiball than not.

I realise mafia might want to conceal the actual setup or at least their knowledge of it, but my limited experience says this doesn't nullify the above, just makes it weaker.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby moody7277 » Mon May 27, 2019 9:28 pm UTC

bessie on Vicarin

Spoiler:
praises BF to him
explains her no-miller spec in terms of lovers
doubles-down on the particular setup spec
has to adjust her setup spec because of something he pointed out
seems to have a few pings on him, has him third scummiest
couple of pointed comments at him
tells him she'd be voting SJ except for player development reasons

Long discussion over her usual role speculation. She develops some general pings about him, but has other candidates before him. Maybe a 10% chance of her being scummates with him.

bessie on BoomFrog

Spoiler:
D1
couple of compliments and prompted by him put up her role spec
question from him deflected into general issue
scum chat spec with him
couple of points, agrees with his point about SJ, worried her list is too close to easy lynch list
BoomFrog middle of T->S list

D2
straightening out BF's interpretation of wam's skepticism
defensive of fb's scummy read on BF
decides he may be the unrequited lover from her role spec
pokes him about his dimochka read

Feeling very twitchy about this possibility, maybe as much as 35%. It's got a lot of meta to fight, though.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby moody7277 » Mon May 27, 2019 9:52 pm UTC

dimochka on Vicarin

has him at neutral
later post still has him middle of the road

Quite little on Vicarin. Has a couple of concerns about his vanilla content. Not interested in lynching him, but in a "needs more data" kind of way. Probably not Vic's partner

dimochka on BF

D1
chides him on lack of content, has him at neutral
rebuttal to him read of dimochka based on previous game
drastic downgrade on him to 2nd scummiest
detailed read of BF, votes BF

D2
disputes BF's claim of town-adjacent indie
"dead last" in T->S list
votes BF

Starts neutral, then turns consistently anti-BF mid D1, and continues until he's lynched. If this is distancing, it's a really long con and a masterful one at that. I say not teammates.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby bessie » Mon May 27, 2019 10:08 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:Speaking of which, why aren't you all up in Jimbob's business? Apparently he was pretty sure you were wrong about the setup. Yet, I'm the lucky one to receive your undivided attention.
I dedicated much of D2 to jimbob, and very little to you, even though I was reading him as Woof and you as Grrr. It’s your turn, now that you’re posting some content. I’ll probably go back to jimbob as soon as he elaborates on this:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I don't think much has changed in my overall thinking. I'm joining the group (possibly of size one) who wants to know why SuicideJunkie voted bessie. I know my own thoughts on bessie, but SuicideJunkie needs to post his own.


somitomi wrote:Sure, consensus doesn't determine the setup, but it's some kind of indicator.
:shock:

somitomi wrote:...wait what? The mafia in your original setup spec had only one kill. Anyway, I think that's a pretty big "if", since (assuming one kill) mafia would have to get through three days unscathed to arrive at 4-3. Seems like a very small room for error on mafia's part while town gets two mislynches, but YMMV.
The setup spec we are discussing has been linked multiple times, see also the top of this page. Mafia has two one-shot kills.

How many mislynches do you think town should have in an 11 player game?

moody7277 wrote:worried her list is too close to easy lynch list
I wasn’t worried. In that particular case, damn was used for emphasis, not as an expression of concern.

@wam, I’m still waiting for an answer to this post.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon May 27, 2019 10:23 pm UTC

bessie wrote:I’ll probably go back to jimbob as soon as he elaborates on this:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I don't think much has changed in my overall thinking. I'm joining the group (possibly of size one) who wants to know why SuicideJunkie voted bessie. I know my own thoughts on bessie, but SuicideJunkie needs to post his own.
What do you want elaborating? To clarify my statement re. my own thoughts, I'm basically talking about my read and reasoning from my last post. I don't think I had any secret thoughts that I was waiting to reveal, and if I did, I've forgotten them.
bessie wrote:Because of the three flips we have, the two non-town flips are not human, and there is nothing in the town flip to indicate that it would investigate as non human. How did you miss this?
Miss what? I'm confused by this question and what relevance this discussion has. Note that freezeblade's claim was a non-town result, not a non-human result or anything. Why are you putting emphasis on this?
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Tue May 28, 2019 12:44 pm UTC

wam wrote:But I have warned laser I will have 0 internet access between sat morning and Monday.

dimochka wrote:I'm mostly away this weekend due to memorial day.

Please come back. What are your thoughts of bessie tunneling somitomi?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby wam » Tue May 28, 2019 2:32 pm UTC

I'm back today is ridiculously busy at work. Will review tonight and comment then.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue May 28, 2019 5:08 pm UTC

Votals

SuicideJunkie (2): jimbobmacdoodle, wam
bessie (1): SuicideJunkie

Not voting: Sabrar, somitomi, bessie, moody, dimochka

Deadline is tomorrow

dimochka has been prodded.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby dimochka » Tue May 28, 2019 6:02 pm UTC

I also went right into work from the weekend and therefore have been very busy. I'll have more later tonight (in the next 6-8 hours). I am NOT fully caught up on whatever happened in the thread over the weekend.

For now will answer Sabrar's 2 questions:
1. I suspected wam significantly more on D2. That has changed based on the reveal on D3. I did consider the possibility of a cult (though somehow restricted) to be higher before BF's flip. Given that, as well as how quickly wam was willing to share his information, I think it's now less likely that he's cult, but it's still a very weird town-esque role if he's actually town. I do get bessie's view on this, I'm just not 100% convinced that this is the case.
2. For most of the discussion, Bessie's view on Somitomi seemed to be off kilter, until this:
bessie wrote:1. I have a fair track record of guessing the setup with very little information, sometimes in my first post. Sure I missed this game, but I didn’t know that until D3. No one else should have discarded it as an option, excluding the four(?) people who knew I was wrong.

That does speak to me. It does suggest to me that Somitomi discrediting the setup view is possibly more than opinion. I'm more of town.bessie opinion than town.somitomi opinion at this point. But honestly apart from SJ and possibly moody, I don't have any reasonable scum reads, so once I get another to that T-S list tonight, I'm hoping I'll have a better view on this.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby wam » Tue May 28, 2019 6:15 pm UTC

Initial thoughts

I think Bessie somi is tvt.

Yes Bessie the way I read my role PM I show as church of moo to watchers and trackers.

I feel.like I missed a question but cnat find it.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Tue May 28, 2019 6:19 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:1. I suspected wam significantly more on D2.
Thank you for the answers. 2 further questions: Did you think D2 that BoomFrog was a mislynch? Did you think D2 that SuicideJunkie was scum?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue May 28, 2019 11:06 pm UTC

I have no idea if I'll have time to write anything else of substance, but I do want to ask those people who are viewing bessie as town, why are you doing so?
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby moody7277 » Wed May 29, 2019 12:04 am UTC

@jimbob: Well, I said above that any scum read of bessie has a lot of meta to fight through; it is doing it's darnedest since I only have her at 55% town.

SJ on Vicarin

poked by him about content
admits to Vic's point about acting differently
calls him sketchy in a read, votes him
answers Vic that his reads post is loosely T->S
answer to him on the downside of his role
upset at Vicarin for his idea of a BF-SJ team

Seems unlikely that SJ is Vic's partner

SJ on BoomFrog

D1
gets coached by BF
calls him town
ignores him for the rest of the day

D2
mostly ignoring BF still
looks like he comes down on BF's side on his claim vs wam's claim
doesn't even say he'd vote for BF

Strong likelihood of SJ being partner with BF

Summarizing my results (italics mean confirmed by flip):
Town
fb
me
wam
Sabrar
dimochka
jimbob--85%
bessie--55%

Apps of Destruction
Vicarin
PW/somi
bessie--10%

Unlikely Supervillians
BoomFrog
SJ
bessie--35%
jimbob--15%
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby bessie » Wed May 29, 2019 3:47 am UTC

Well let's see, this is probably my last post. Congrats to everyone who was able to avoid me and lurk or active lurk their way to D4.

SuicideJunkie wrote:That is interesting. Villain teams are well known to pull from a wide variety of sources while hero teams are generally humanoid, but frequently include mutants, aliens, gods and robots.
In this case, Apps could easily have a human hacker helping them or being their creator.
The eldritch forces team could have a human summoner. (Such as a religious fanatic)
Your focus on human/scum, not non-human/town, is interesting.

SuicideJunkie wrote:I don't see how that helps any; unless you're a DNA scanner meta-cop, it is pretty meaningless mechanically, and even then it is a bit sketchy.
Nice fishing expedition.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Miss what? I'm confused by this question and what relevance this discussion has. Note that freezeblade's claim was a non-town result, not a non-human result or anything. Why are you putting emphasis on this?
Hahahahaha, see my answer to SuicideJunkie directly above where he asked the same question.

I’ll explain it to you on D4. :lol:

wam wrote:Yes Bessie the way I read my role PM I show as church of moo to watchers and trackers.

I feel.like I missed a question but cnat find it.
You missed Sabrar’s question here. Sabrar, why didn’t you point this out yourself?

You also didn’t answer all my questions here. I asked you this:
bessie wrote:Do all members of your church also get moo attached to the results of all investigations?
And... by the time wam returns I’ll be gone. Oh well. I’m going to have to go with what I know, which is that freezeblade got Moo on BoomFrog.

It’s almost 1:00 am for dimochka, guess that ain't happening either.


Tweet
bessie- Glitter nail polish.
wam- Minister of Moo.
Sabrar- Calm puppy. I find his lack of barking...interesting.
moody- Is Moo-dy moody
dimochka- Negative. Hell if I know.
jimbobmacdoodle- Scum or merely misguided?
somitomi- Likely Supervillain.
SuicideJunkie- App of Destruction.
Squawk

Vote: SuicideJunkie


Sabrar, I’m tired and I have a busy morning. Do you have everything you need from me for D4? Make it quick.

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moody7277
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby moody7277 » Wed May 29, 2019 4:01 am UTC

bessie wrote:moody- Is Moo-dy moody


Making that pun is probably 2/3 of why wam targeted me.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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SuicideJunkie
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Wed May 29, 2019 4:04 am UTC

bessie wrote:
SuicideJunkie wrote:That is interesting. Villain teams are well known to pull from a wide variety of sources while hero teams are generally humanoid, but frequently include mutants, aliens, gods and robots.
In this case, Apps could easily have a human hacker helping them or being their creator.
The eldritch forces team could have a human summoner. (Such as a religious fanatic)
Your focus on human/scum, not non-human/town, is interesting.
Just ignore the mutants, aliens, gods and robots then. OK. Yep.

bessie wrote:
SuicideJunkie wrote:I don't see how that helps any; unless you're a DNA scanner meta-cop, it is pretty meaningless mechanically, and even then it is a bit sketchy.
Nice fishing expedition.
Do you think the best fishing spots are in the freezer section?
I'm just noting that tuna is on sale and you smell fishy here.


Sabrar wrote:
SuicideJunkie wrote:Some comments on Sabrar's options for what happened last night.
Why waste your content on things that have already been cleared up?

Ah, righto.
So come dawn, you'll be completely unsurprised to find I've been telling the truth all along then.

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bessie
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby bessie » Wed May 29, 2019 4:21 am UTC

moody7277 wrote:
bessie wrote:moody- Is Moo-dy moody


Making that pun is probably 2/3 of why wam targeted me.

wam didn't target you, he targeted SuicideJunkie. He just ended up on you, and made you Moo.

I, on the other hand, did target you, but I saw no Moo.

Sabrar's got nothing for me me me, so goodnight.

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Sabrar
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 29, 2019 4:53 am UTC

bessie wrote:Sabrar, why didn’t you point this out yourself?
I forgot. It's been 3 slow days.

bessie wrote:Sabrar's got nothing for me me me, so goodnight.
Apologies for not checking sooner. I was otherwise engaged.

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Sabrar
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 29, 2019 4:56 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I have no idea if I'll have time to write anything else of substance, but I do want to ask those people who are viewing bessie as town, why are you doing so?
It's a combination of small things. Not being a lurker also helps.

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dimochka
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby dimochka » Wed May 29, 2019 4:59 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:1. I suspected wam significantly more on D2.
Thank you for the answers. 2 further questions: Did you think D2 that BoomFrog was a mislynch? Did you think D2 that SuicideJunkie was scum?

Not a mislynch but I thought he was SK. I thought SJ was scummy, but I didn't think he was allied with Vicarin and thus a lower priority to consider.

I just lost a big post which is annoying (i was on personal laptop which randomly restarted) so i'm going to try to recreate in the morning with logic for below. Takeaways are (I'm pretty sure):
- bessie possibly with either, but i'm currently reading her as town
- jimbob not with vicarin, possibly but unlikely with BF
- moody possibly but unlikely with vicarin, possibly with BF
- sabrar not with vicarin, possibly with BF
- somitomi possibly with vicarin, unlikely with BF
- sj unlikely with vicarin, likely with BF
- wam at this point likely town-aligned independent or town. Can see him having some wincon that isn't explicitly aligned with town
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

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Sabrar
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 29, 2019 5:31 am UTC

dimochka wrote:Not a mislynch but I thought he was SK. I thought SJ was scummy, but I didn't think he was allied with Vicarin and thus a lower priority to consider.
So if you thought BoomFrog was SK, then it was likely that wam's roleblock prevented the kill. It was also likely that he would use it on SuicideJunkie N2, whom you thought to be scummy. Why would you use your power in a way that would prevent that?

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Sabrar
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 29, 2019 9:07 am UTC

I don't 'hear' the forced tone in somitomi's replies to bessie. I definitely don't see that smiley as suspicious. That doesn't exclude the possibility of scum!somitomi but I think bessie's case is not that strong. Of course I thought the same of plytho and LaserGuy attacking moody and jimbob last game and we all know how that one turned out...
bessie is capable to tunnel as scum as well (see wam's chaos) so this is NAI. Which reminds me:
bessie wrote:
wam wrote:Bessie is locked into her role spec but this is nai for Bessie.
TBH, I’m not sure it is.
Could you explain this? Why is you being locked into a setup-spec AI?

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Sabrar
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 29, 2019 1:57 pm UTC

Since nobody is around for further discussion and my availability until deadline is dubious:

Vote: SuicideJunkie

Should be L-1

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SuicideJunkie
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Wed May 29, 2019 2:19 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:Not a mislynch but I thought he was SK. I thought SJ was scummy, but I didn't think he was allied with Vicarin and thus a lower priority to consider.
So if you thought BoomFrog was SK, then it was likely that wam's roleblock prevented the kill. It was also likely that he would use it on SuicideJunkie N2, whom you thought to be scummy. Why would you use your power in a way that would prevent that?

Why would anyone expect BF to NK me, when I have such a scummy aura? If he wanted me dead, patience was all that was required, and there are plenty of other useful targets.
Surely BF wouldn't want to preempt my mislynch if we are already up one dead baddie.

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moody7277
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby moody7277 » Wed May 29, 2019 2:32 pm UTC

No objection to the SuicideJunkie lynch. I figure it's close enough to deadline that I can just let the clock run out.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Sabrar
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 29, 2019 2:41 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:Why would anyone expect BF to NK me, when I have such a scummy aura? If he wanted me dead, patience was all that was required, and there are plenty of other useful targets.
Surely BF wouldn't want to preempt my mislynch if we are already up one dead baddie.
BF was dead by the time dimochka used his ability. I was obviously referring to wam blocking you in that sentence. Again you address a non-existent scenario.

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SuicideJunkie
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Wed May 29, 2019 3:01 pm UTC

Ah, why redirecting the block away from me. That makes more sense. (as a question, not as an action)

Preventing my block does get me killed via lynch, so its super effective. I imagine you all expect that I really did it, and a block would have at least forced someone else to take the blame.

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somitomi
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby somitomi » Wed May 29, 2019 4:41 pm UTC

Oof, I'm really running out of time on this, so here goes
TOWN:
Sabrar: Has been consistently town in my opinion, I didn't find anything off in his posting or his logic.
He's not Vicarin's buddy, could be BoomFrog's
wam: I have a lot of confidence in wam, the way he volunteered info to clear the Church of Moo thing up was really townie and he wasn't under duress. Piretty much all of the info he provided was backed up by others or flips and I don't see any room for a cult anyway.
Unlikely to be either BoomFrog's or Vicarin's buddy.
jimbob: Like Sabrar, his logic was pretty sound and he has diligently followed up on questions and his own promises. His progression on BoomFrog (voting him after freezeblade's claim only to revoke it later) pinged me slightly in retrospect, but the concern over focusing on BoomFrog was substantiated.
Seems unlikely to be with Vicarin, could be with BoomFrog.
moody7277: His D2 content is A-OK, while much of his D3 content is analysing interactions between known scum and others. I didn't find any issue with his logic, and it's fairly useful, but still looks like active lurking to me.
It's possible he's Vicarin's buddy, very unlikely to be Boomfrog's.
dimochka: Someone made a remark about dimochka coasting along and it feels apt. However, his explanation for redirecting wam makes sense, he did mention that suspicion on D2.
Could be Vicarin's buddy, unlikely to be with BoomFrog
bessie: bessie's always a tough one to read, so my read of her has to go on very small pings. Her focus on the setup speculation is slightly off, even accounting for her tendency to tunnel. This could be the OMGUS talking, but I have the feeling it's not coming from a town place. I also noticed that she expressed suspicion of both Vicarin and BoomFrog before they were condemned, but she wasn't to hard on either. As far as buddy analysis goes, she could be the partner of both.
SuicideJunkie: This has been discussed already, I highly doubt his claim is true, because the way he handled it makes little sense from town perspective. Scum on the other hand might want to sow confusion and the vague remarks about his role certainly did that. So did the way he slipped that result on dimochka and then never clarified it.
He's probably not Vicarin's buddy, could be with BoomFrog.
MAFIA
With that, I would vote SuicideJunkie, but it would be hammer. I'll be around to intervene in case of some last-minute shenanigans.

bessie wrote:The setup spec we are discussing has been linked multiple times, see also the top of this page. Mafia has two one-shot kills

Okay, I think I found the misunderstanding. I thought the factional one-shot kill refers to the same kill as SuicideJunkie's kill. It took me long enough though and I think I wasn't the only one to read it that way.
Image
―◯‐◯ FG Discord◯‐◯―

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LaserGuy
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 29, 2019 5:29 pm UTC

Night has fallen. No more posting.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Night 3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 29, 2019 5:32 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie has been lynched. His flip will be revealed in the morning.


Final Votals

SuicideJunkie (4): jimbobmacdoodle, wam, bessie, Sabrar
bessie (1): SuicideJunkie

Not voting: somitomi, moody, dimochka

Deadline for night action submission istomorrow

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 4)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu May 30, 2019 6:16 pm UTC

The heroes return, dragging with them a young woman dressed as a goat.

"She seems harmless enough. What has she done?" he asks.

"She was seen at a bank robbery!" says the Masked Toddler.

"I depositing a cheque! Not my fault that there was a robbery while I was there," protested the woman.

"She was also found kissing a corpse at the scene of a murder," said the Golden Nerd.

"Grotesque!" growled the mayor.

"I was doing CPR!" replied the woman, "What is wrong with you people?"

"Anything else?" asked the mayor.

"She turned me into a newt!" said The Newt.

"What! I don't know what you're talking about!"

"I've heard enough," said the Mayor, "Take her to the Asylum for processing."


SuicideJunkie was sent to Mahkra asylum. He was Miss Scapegoat, aligned with Town.

Role PM:
Spoiler:
Miss Scapegoat:

Somehow it is always your fault. You just always seem to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Once, while you were sitting on the bus, the woman across from you left her purse behind. You followed her off the bus to return it, and were immediately confronted by a police officer who opened the purse and found it was full of drugs. Not your fault! Another time, you swerved your car to avoid a chicken in the middle of the road, and the four cars behind you all collided. Not your fault! But no matter what you do or how much you try to help, you somehow always seem to get the blame.

Powers:
Sharing is caring: Each night, target a player. Any night results that player receives from investigations will also be shared with you. Regardless of whom you target, to all appearances you will appear to have targeted a person who was night killed.

Scapegoat: In the event that the votals are tied at the end of the day, you will be lynched regardless of how many votes you have.

You are Town and win when all anti-Town factions are eliminated.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 4)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu May 30, 2019 6:18 pm UTC

Day 4 has begun. Deadline Wednesday June 5


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