Unlikely Superheroes (Endgame)

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moody7277
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:23 am UTC

wam wrote:I should be withholding tonight.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Sabrar
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:34 am UTC

I'm not fine with NL but whatever.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:14 am UTC

bessie wrote:Depending on my result, we lynch me or moody tomorrow.
I think there's a case for lynching Sabrar or I too, but we can discuss this tomorrow.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby wam » Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:48 pm UTC

I'm here. Sorry phone died reducing my limited posting even more. Working again now.

I confirm I am withholding.

Thinking about it this morning. Are we prepared to bank the game on moody being town.

Given the rb n2 for moody to be scum either the 1 shot nk was used or he is strongman etc. Strongman doesn't fit with booms role.

Assuming moody is town scum must be in

Bessie sabrar jimbob.

Lynch 1 today
2nd tomorrow
I rb the 3rd on the next night and then we lynch the last on the remaining day.

Sorry I know its late in the day.
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Sabrar
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:54 pm UTC

Lynch me, block jimbob tonight. Tomorrow depending on bessie's result:
1. If Pigeon: lynch jimbob, block bessie, lynch bessie
2. If not Pigeon: lynch moody, block bessie, lynch bessie.

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Sabrar
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:56 pm UTC

This is assuming remaining scum doesn't have Strongman or anything crazy.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby bessie » Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:07 pm UTC

I have 5 minutes. What do you want to do?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:13 pm UTC

wam wrote:Thinking about it this morning. Are we prepared to bank the game on moody being town.


I thought that was the point of bessie investigating me tonight.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby bessie » Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:15 pm UTC

Sorry wam, I need to leave and I won't be back before deadline. I'm not voting in case you want to work out something.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:12 pm UTC

Vote: No Lynch
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:03 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Lynch me, block jimbob tonight. Tomorrow depending on bessie's result:
1. If Pigeon: lynch jimbob, block bessie, lynch bessie
2. If not Pigeon: lynch moody, block bessie, lynch bessie
Every time I keep back to this, I have concerns about yet another thing and doubt myself too much. If Sabrar genuinely thinks lynching him first is a good idea, and self votes, I could be persuaded by his plan, though I don't know if I'll get another chance to post between now and deadline.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby wam » Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:10 pm UTC

If we assume we are only getting an odd night kill a NL would look like this. And assuming last supervillain is all were looking for.

Nl

4-1

Lynch 1 takes us 3-1

I block 1.

Either 3-1 with a withheld kill or block or

2-1. Clears one giving us a town majority. Assuming no strongman which is the way I'm leaning.

Therefore I agree with NL on reflection however I wont vote for it as iv lost track of votals.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:27 pm UTC

Vote: Sabrar

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:30 pm UTC

@wam: NL has 2 votes currently. I won't be online to change my vote.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:10 pm UTC

Day 5 has ended. No more posting.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:17 pm UTC

Final votals:

No Lynch (2): jimbobmacdoodle, moody
Sabrar (1): Sabrar

No one has been lynched.

I will end the night once all night actions are submitted, or tomorrow, whichever comes first.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:10 pm UTC

All night actions have been submitted, so I am ending the night. D6 will begin as soon as I finish writing the flavor.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:20 pm UTC

The heroes return to the Mayor's office.

"Well?" asks the Mayor, "What news?"

"Well sir,..." the Little Old Lady replied, "Yesterday was a holiday, so we took the day off."

"Holiday? I didn't hear about any holiday," grumbles the Mayor, "What day was it?"

"It was, national, um... superhero appreciation day!" explained the Lawyer, "We are contractually obliged not to work!"

"Hmmph," says the Mayor, "Seems suspicious to me. Well, I suppose we didn't hear of any crimes happening either, so perhaps the enemy took the day off too. Now, get back to work!"


Nobody was lynched.
Nobody was killed during the night.

It is now Day 6. Deadline is Monday the 24th

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Sabrar
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:23 pm UTC

Looked forward to that binge
But moody votes No Lynch??
He must have been high
Or the end is nigh...

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:52 pm UTC

Bessie, what's your result (please say it's something useful!)? Wam, I assume you withheld?

Sabrar is either town or scum willing to take a big gamble. He had no way of knowing whether I'd come back online or not, so self-voting put him in very real danger of getting lynched and losing if scum. I think there was a reasonable chance he could have gotten bessie and I lynched instead, had he decided to push that way, so there wasn't the real need to risk it.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby bessie » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:05 am UTC

Sorry for the wait, I've been trying to get the forum to load for like three hours.

My target is columba livia, a common pigeon.

No Moo. I have requested confirmation that my result is complete.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby bessie » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:11 am UTC

Ok, my target is Moo.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby wam » Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:04 am UTC

Ok

vote Jimbobmacdoodle

And yes I withheld.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 5)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:24 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:1. If Pigeon: lynch jimbob, block bessie, lynch bessie
I support lynching jimbob today.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:20 am UTC

I'm okay with me being lynched, but only if there's a clear follow up plan for when I flip town.

Here's where I'm at:

Sabrar claims to be The Poet, with a death note ability. The only thing backing this up is his breadcrumbing. His behaviour towards BoomFrog didn't particularly strike me as that of a buddy, particularly his voting record. His play yesterday, as already mentioned, was extremely risky as scum, and probably unnecessarily so. Conclusion: Sabrar is probably town.

Moody claims to be The Pigeon. This has been verified by bessie. For moody to be anything else would require him to have am ability that messes with results, either generically making him look like a pigeon or anything he chooses to appear as. I don't believe the former because it would mess with only a single weak power, for no apparent gain. I'm unsure about the latter. Moody was blocked N2 when there was a kill. There is no guarantee that scum!moody was the one to make that kill, but in that case dimochka used his faction's one shot kill very early, especially given their prime ability was already gone. Assuming the Supervillains killed N2, moody could only be one if he had Strongman, which would be odd against a limited roleblocker. He used an N1 ability, which supposedly made him immune to the kill. This seems like an odd time to use it, but is possibly breadcrumbed by his chess moves. His play yesterday switching to No Lynch instead of bessie is slightly odd, but explainable as someone who was convinced by my logic. His play with regards to BoomFrog indicated a plausible buddy, but everything else basically points against him being scum. Conclusion: probably town.

Wam claims to be the leader of the Church of Moo. This has been consistently verified by multiple individuals and flips. He claims that his ability is a roleblock. The only evidence for this is the lack of a kill N1. There was no indication of redirection on N3, when he supposedly blocked dimochka, so that is believable too. As has been discussed extensively, he could only be a BoomFrog buddy if they launched a high stakes gambit. I don't think this is very likely, as previously stated. Conclusion: probably town.

On wam, I had a serious moment of self doubt yesterday evening relating to the Church of Moo and possible religious connotations of the Yin Yang symbol, not to mention the fact that both BoomFrog and wam had forms of roleblock.

That brings me to bessie who claims to be able to identify species of birds. Her only bird result was moody, who had already claimed to be a pigeon, so her ability is unverified. She did breadcrumb some aspects of her role, but from what I remember, it could all have been related to items of public knowledge at that point (specifically that scum were non human). Her play could have been that of a BoomFrog buddy. One recent point for her was her apparent willingness to be lynched yesterday, although she was never in any real danger, so I don't count it for much. Conclusion: possibly scum.

I only really see one possible scum player out there, unless we start ignoring big evidence in front of us.

Vote bessie

I'll post up a self defence at some point, but like I said, I'm not opposed to my own lynch if it will help us identify the remaining scum.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby moody7277 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:34 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Looked forward to that binge
But moody votes No Lynch??
He must have been high
Or the end is nigh...


Definitely the latter, because the game isn't going past D7.

Based on reads, scum is in {bessie, jimbob}. Order of lynching is not important.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:07 pm UTC

wam, moody, do you agree or disagree with my thinking about Sabrar's behaviour at the end of the Day yesterday implying him to be town? I'd like a second opinion to make sure I'm not missing something.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby wam » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:39 pm UTC

I agree but of players who I would expect to pull that as scum sabrar would be up there. Others would be me and boom.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:54 am UTC

Seeing that bessie reported the most likely result (as scum!her couldn't afford to lie) and there was no death, I don't think there is too much to say that wasn't said yesterday. I would like to hear from her before voting though.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby bessie » Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:58 am UTC

I just got home. Ok, let’s see what we have.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:That brings me to bessie who claims to be able to identify species of birds. Her only bird result was moody, who had already claimed to be a pigeon, so her ability is unverified. She did breadcrumb some aspects of her role, but from what I remember, it could all have been related to items of public knowledge at that point (specifically that scum were non human). Her play could have been that of a BoomFrog buddy. One recent point for her was her apparent willingness to be lynched yesterday, although she was never in any real danger, so I don't count it for much. Conclusion: possibly scum.
There is a lot wrong with this entire quote, but particularly the underlined. What public knowledge? So you’re speculating that I made up my claim to be a bird cop based on publicly available information? I dropped a bird crumb on D3 out of nowhere. I’m the one that prodded moody into his bird soft claim on D4 when he had given previous no hints about being a bird. Reread this post for more. And I was the one pushing the scum=not human when no one else supported my theory.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:wam, moody, do you agree or disagree with my thinking about Sabrar's behaviour at the end of the Day yesterday implying him to be town? I'd like a second opinion to make sure I'm not missing something.
If I could do the kind of behavior analysis that SDK does, I’m sure I could present a case of how this is scum you fishing openings for your target for tomorrow, but I can’t. And I’m too tired to try.

Sabrar wrote:Seeing that bessie reported the most likely result (as scum!her couldn't afford to lie) and there was no death, I don't think there is too much to say that wasn't said yesterday. I would like to hear from her before voting though.
I think jimbob should be lynched before me because he has a second vote manipulation power that he may not have been truthful about. Or vote for me if you want, moody can hammer. I don’t think there is anything to be gained from dragging out this day.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:08 am UTC

bessie wrote:I think jimbob should be lynched before me because he has a second vote manipulation power that he may not have been truthful about.
I agree.

Vote: jimbob

Unofficial votals:
jimbob - 2 (wam, Sabrar)
bessie - 1 (jimbob)
Not voting: bessie, moody

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:16 am UTC

Since people don't seem to believe my publicly verifiable power, and since I see no benefit to it at this stage of the game:

You can't choose moody

I'll leave it up to you to decide whether I'd really have another power and have held onto all three until D5 onwards.
bessie wrote:I think jimbob should be lynched before me because he has a second vote manipulation power that he may not have been truthful about.
This is essentially the same logic as scum used to get me mislynched in Crossover.

bessie wrote:I dropped a bird crumb on D3 out of nowhere
I'd forgotten this one, I'll admit. Since it appeared before any references to birds that I'm aware of, I acknowledge that it's relevant.

bessie wrote:I’m the one that prodded moody into his bird soft claim on D4 when he had given previous no hints about being a bird.
This is irrelevant to my case on you, since up to this point, you only indicated knowledge of human/non-human.
bessie wrote:And I was the one pushing the scum=not human when no one else supported my theory.
Also not really relevant, since this could be derived (potentially incorrectly) from public information up to that point too.

One possible theory for scum!bessie is that she's actually a rolecop. It's even possible given her breadcrumb, if she in fact investigated moody earlier than claimed. This doesn't fit with my feel of the game though...

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm okay with me being lynched, but only if there's a clear follow up plan for when I flip town.
So the only person who has actually answered this is moody... If I get lynched, who is wam going to target? Depending on this and the NK, who are you currently planning on lynching?

Some self-defence points, since lynching me potentially leaves us at LYLO (but like I said, I don't mind being lynched if there's a clear plan).
1) My D2 read of BoomFrog was written overnight, and posted twenty minutes after day start when I noticed the day had begun. There was only one post before that and it was wam's with no relevant info. My next post our him at bottom of the scum pile before freezeblade's claim.
2) I stand by my belief that scum wouldn't be given my ability. If I were scum, I could have potentially manufactured a reason to use it to save BoomFrog.
3) I could have joined the SJ wagon D2 to try to save BoomFrog. If I'd timed my vote right, it may have had a big impact.

Out of time. If I could be bothered, I'm sure I could come up with more points, but I'm not going to.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:35 am UTC

It has been decided that moody cannot be lynched today. Votes on moody will not be counted. Votals have been reset.

Not voting: Everyone

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:24 am UTC

One more point of defence that has occurred to me: why would scum!me push for No Lynch yesterday? If I'd pushed bessie, I might have been able to get a mislynch with moody's backing, leaving me with only one more lynch needed.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby wam » Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:22 pm UTC

Jimbob makes sense. But tbh I dont think the order matters.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:38 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:One more point of defence that has occurred to me: why would scum!me push for No Lynch yesterday?
A possible reason would be to avoid being blocked by wam N6 by keeping more targets alive.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby bessie » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:15 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:One more point of defence that has occurred to me: why would scum!me push for No Lynch yesterday? If I'd pushed bessie, I might have been able to get a mislynch with moody's backing, leaving me with only one more lynch needed.
Because you need to continue to look like the towniest town that ever towned so you could get that mislynch. You did the same thing in Secret Santa 2017.

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:54 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:1) My D2 read of BoomFrog was written overnight, and posted twenty minutes after day start when I noticed the day had begun. There was only one post before that and it was wam's with no relevant info. My next post our him at bottom of the scum pile before freezeblade's claim.
BoomFrog expected to be blocked. Cynical view says that he told you to distance yourself from him early D2 if no kill happens.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:2) I stand by my belief that scum wouldn't be given my ability. If I were scum, I could have potentially manufactured a reason to use it to save BoomFrog.
Using a strong power just to save a confirmed non-town from lynch? You would have been immediately outed as his buddy.

Vote: jimbob

jimbob is at L-1.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby wam » Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:25 pm UTC

Happy to hammer unless anyone has objections
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:28 pm UTC

Based on this I don't think moody has any, but maybe wait for him if you're still around for a few hours more?


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