MafiaScum round 2

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Rodan
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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:11 am UTC

Well, yeah, I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch anyone. That's just a bad idea. I just don't know who.
What I'm wondering is why don't we go ahead with the plan immediately? Is there a particular reason for waiting a day before having the cop announce who he is?

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Gojoe » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:11 am UTC

Rodan wrote:Well, yeah. No lynch = bad. Every pirate knows that.


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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Sledgehmr » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:12 am UTC

Bf2flyby: But that's common knowledge among experienced players. If he's a bad townie who just wanted to get the game going he wouldn't realize starting off like that would be really suspicious. So a smart mafia player wouldn't do that because it would likely get them killed, and clearly a smart townie wouldn't.

So he has to be someone who doesn't understand that it would work like that and statistically speaking he's slightly more likely to be a townie than mafia. So we're more likely than not by acting basically at random (and picking off the first impatient new player is pretty much like picking at random) to end up lynching a townie and thus being weaker. Waiting for the cop makes more sense.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby SPsnow02 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:14 am UTC

Rodan wrote:Well, yeah, I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch anyone. That's just a bad idea. I just don't know who.
What I'm wondering is why don't we go ahead with the plan immediately? Is there a particular reason for waiting a day before having the cop announce who he is?


Agreed, we can't go off anything but suspicions today.

Hmm. I hadn't thought of that. But I think we should wait until he has results. Expose him today, and we'll probably get 1 or two fake cops along with him, the doctor wont know who to protect, but the mafia will know who to kill. If we wait a day, he'll at least be able to give us the name of a mafia.
Rawr!

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Sledgehmr » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:15 am UTC

Rodan: The cop can announce himself today, but he won't know anything till day 2 so it doesn't help us. The cop is basically a regular townie till his first investigation so calling attention to himself just makes it more likely the mafia kills him before he can do an investigation.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:18 am UTC

SPsnow02 wrote:Hmm. I hadn't thought of that. But I think we should wait until he has results. Expose him today, and we'll probably get 1 or two fake cops along with him, the doctor wont know who to protect, but the mafia will know who to kill. If we wait a day, he'll at least be able to give us the name of a mafia.

But there's two mafia groups, so it's possibly that both will have fake cops, and won't know for sure which one's the townie either.
It's also possible the cop may not discover a mafia goon, and just a townie, which, while helpful, isn't at all as handy as discovering mafia.
I'm starting to think it's safer for the cop with possible doctor help than with an un-announced identity.

EDIT:
Herm. this is tricky.
Basically, my views are still the same: plan=good, undecided lynching.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Bf2flyby » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:21 am UTC

Sledgehmr wrote:Bf2flyby: But that's common knowledge among experienced players. If he's a bad townie who just wanted to get the game going he wouldn't realize starting off like that would be really suspicious. So a smart mafia player wouldn't do that because it would likely get them killed, and clearly a smart townie wouldn't.

So he has to be someone who doesn't understand that it would work like that and statistically speaking he's slightly more likely to be a townie than mafia. So we're more likely than not by acting basically at random (and picking off the first impatient new player is pretty much like picking at random) to end up lynching a townie and thus being weaker. Waiting for the cop makes more sense.


NO NO NO! No lynch is ALWAYS the worst option. By waiting a day we lose two townies, and we don't start arguments, so we'll be in the exact same situation as today, but worse off.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:24 am UTC

Again, for emphasis:

NO-LYNCHING IS BAD.

That's what I learned from the pirate-themed mafia game from a while back.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby SPsnow02 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:25 am UTC

Rodan wrote:
SPsnow02 wrote:Hmm. I hadn't thought of that. But I think we should wait until he has results. Expose him today, and we'll probably get 1 or two fake cops along with him, the doctor wont know who to protect, but the mafia will know who to kill. If we wait a day, he'll at least be able to give us the name of a mafia.

But there's two mafia groups, so it's possibly that both will have fake cops, and won't know for sure which one's the townie either.
It's also possible the cop may not discover a mafia goon, and just a townie, which, while helpful, isn't at all as handy as discovering mafia.
I'm starting to think it's safer for the cop with possible doctor help than with an un-announced identity.

EDIT:
Herm. this is tricky.
Basically, my views are still the same: plan=good, undecided lynching.


Well, we'll probably get fake cops if the cop comes out today also.
Rawr!

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:29 am UTC

SPsnow02 wrote:
Well, we'll probably get fake cops if the cop comes out today also.

Well, yeah. I wasn't saying we'd get rid of those.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Bf2flyby » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:29 am UTC

All we can do today is decide who has been the most suspicious and vote to lynch them.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Sledgehmr » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:30 am UTC

We're basically working at random here, if we lynch and hit mafia the ratio goes from 8/18 (.4 repeating) to 7/15 (.46 with 6 repeating). So even if we get the guess right we're still worse off than we are now. If we get it wrong though the ratio soars to 8/15 (.53 with the 3 repeating). Where as if we do nothing the ratio becomes 8/16 (.5). So the expected value of lynch is slightly above .5 (7/15 and 8/15 average to .5 so if there was a 50 percent chance of getting it right it'd be equal, but there's only a 8/18 chance of being right so the expected value is above .5). (Higher ratio is bad, since it means a greater portion of the people alive are mobsters)

So unless I'm wrong no lynch seems marginally better (if I'm wrong the numbers above I'd have to change my position). Also keep in mind it's not a certainty that we lose 2 townies tonight. That's the worst case, but its also possible the mobs randomly pick the same person or at least one kills a rival mobster instead of a townie. If one of these cases occur than we're certainly better off not lynching.

So I THINK that saying we'll be worse off not lynching than lynching at random is false.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:34 am UTC

It sounds good in theory, but it pretty much ends up being everyone sitting around while mafia members systematically slaughter them.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Bf2flyby » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:35 am UTC

Sledgehmr wrote:We're basically working at random here, if we lynch and hit mafia the ratio goes from 8/18 (.4 repeating) to 7/15 (.46 with 6 repeating). So even if we get the guess right we're still worse off than we are now. If we get it wrong though the ratio soars to 8/15 (.53 with the 3 repeating). Where as if we do nothing the ratio becomes 8/16 (.5). So the expected value of lynch is slightly above .5 (7/15 and 8/15 average to .5 so if there was a 50 percent chance of getting it right it'd be equal, but there's only a 8/18 chance of being right so the expected value is above .5).

So unless I'm wrong no lynch seems marginally better (if I'm wrong the numbers above I'd have to change my position). Also keep in mind it's not a certainty that we lose 2 townies tonight. That's the worst case, but its also possible the mobs randomly pick the same person or at least one kills a rival mobster instead of a townie. If one of these cases occur than we're certainly better off not lynching.

So I THINK that saying we'll be worse off not lynching than lynching at random is false.


How will we be any better off tomorrow night? Or the night after? The mafia will just keep killing us, two by two.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby SPsnow02 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:37 am UTC

Let's make with some votes, just to see where everyone stands.
Rawr!

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:42 am UTC

Hang on.
Assuming:
doctor is secret, and keeps who he protects secret.
Doctor protects the right guy.

now, in this situation, it is possible that one or two mafia groups would attempt to kill the cop, in case he wasn't protected, right?
This would mean that an innocent would not be killed...

herm. It's all in the chance as too which situation is better, but I'm starting to lean towards the cop revealing himself today.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Sledgehmr » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:42 am UTC

Rodan: The odds change night to night depending on what happened last night. So the strategy doesn't lead to an infinite regress of sit there and wait (also since the mobs will likely hurt each other somewhat throughout the game, this strategy isn't the same as in the last round with only one mob).

And after this night we have more information thanks to the cop. Azrael's strategy shows us where to go from there. We can make informed decisions once the cop starts getting information, even if they only find a townie the odds tilt favorably.

Just to say it again, this isn't a single mob, nor is it two mobs who can collude because they know the others members. It's a near certainty that at least once in the game a mob will kill someone from the other mob so it doesn't fit perfectly with the model of last round.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby SPsnow02 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:43 am UTC

But, if the cop comes out today, the doctor will have a 1/3 chance of picking the right one, because each mafia will probably put out a fake one.
Rawr!

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby une see » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:45 am UTC

Rodan, I'm not sure what your position is. You seem to support Azrael's plan, but you also want to lynch someone today. That is clearly against Azrael's plan?

I do think we should lynch someone today, but I have no idea who. We need the rest of the people in this game who have not yet shown up to speak, or we can't do anything, since we need 10 people to get a majority vote, in any case.
T.S. Eliot in "The Waste Land" wrote:APRIL is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:46 am UTC

But it's not necessarily pure chance. There's the trust involved (which, admittedly, isn't much of a factor), and the same is true for tomorrow, only said fake cops will have fake info, that we may trust and lead to hanging a civilian, or not hanging a mafia-member.

EDIT: okay, we need to start quoting each other with all these ninjas.
Last edited by Rodan on Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:46 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby SPsnow02 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:46 am UTC

Why can't we go with both plans?

Lets all just vote for who we think we should lynch.
Rawr!

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Tigerlion » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:47 am UTC

Uh, well, This:
Sledgehmr wrote:if we lynch and hit mafia the ratio goes from 8/18 (.4 repeating) to 7/15 (.46 with 6 repeating). So even if we get the guess right we're still worse off than we are now.

Sort of doesn't make sense, ignoring all your pretty math. This might be me being wrong, but we want to kill people in the mafia, its the point of the game. Strictly looking from a not-math view, killing someone in yonder mafia is the best thing we can do.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Azrael001 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:47 am UTC

We do have almost 50-50 chance of getting a mobster. Though, I don't know who we should hang yet, though I think I remember some suspicious posts. I am going to go back over the old posts and maybe make my argument.
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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:47 am UTC

une see wrote:Rodan, I'm not sure what your position is. You seem to support Azrael's plan, but you also want to lynch someone today. That is clearly against Azrael's plan?


It does say to lynch no one, but that's not an integral part of the plan.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby SPsnow02 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:48 am UTC

Azrael001 wrote:We do have almost 50-50 chance of getting a mobster. Though, I don't know who we should hang yet, though I think I remember some suspicious posts. I am going to go back over the old posts and maybe make my argument.


Everyone do this, Kthx.
Rawr!

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:50 am UTC

I'm beginning to do so.

first thoughts: the person who spoke first did nothing suspicious, just getting things started.

Herm. I dunno who to lynch.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby une see » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:53 am UTC

Rodan, remember: no editing.

I am also looking back at everyone's posts.
T.S. Eliot in "The Waste Land" wrote:APRIL is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:54 am UTC

No editing? Whoops. I'll try to remember that.
(I don't believe I've edited anything except for adding info or making stuff clearer as of yet)

EDIT: I capitalized the word "I've". sue me.
Last edited by Rodan on Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:55 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Sledgehmr » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:54 am UTC

Tigion wrote:Uh, well, This:
Sledgehmr wrote:if we lynch and hit mafia the ratio goes from 8/18 (.4 repeating) to 7/15 (.46 with 6 repeating). So even if we get the guess right we're still worse off than we are now.

Sort of doesn't make sense, ignoring all your pretty math. This might be me being wrong, but we want to kill people in the mafia, its the point of the game. Strictly looking from a not-math view, killing someone in yonder mafia is the best thing we can do.


Yeah I realize it seems counter intuitive. But basically if the two mobs both hit townies tonight, it's impossible for us to be better off tomorrow than we are today. Obviously if we know someone is mafia we should kill them, but I'm arguing we have no idea till we get some information and more participate so we're more likely to lynch a townie than a mobster.

That alone doesn't mean we shouldn't lynch, but since we're more likely to lynch a non mobster than a mobster we're still better off waiting for either information or a good reason to lynch someone. The majority of the time, lynch whoever is inexperienced enough to get the game started is a losing strategy, so in absence some additional reason to lynch someone we should wait till the cop can do his job.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby SPsnow02 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:02 am UTC

sledgehmr wrote:since we're more likely to lynch a non mobster than a mobster we're still better off waiting for either information or a good reason to lynch someone. The majority of the time, lynch whoever is inexperienced enough to get the game started is a losing strategy, so in absence some additional reason to lynch someone we should wait till the cop can do his job.


It's also more likely than not that the cop will inspect a townie tonight, and wew'll be in the exact same position but with two less townies tomorrow night. Remember, there are 10 townies and 8 bad guys.
Rawr!

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:03 am UTC

Okay, this may turn out to be a terrible idea, but I'm going to day it:

I am the cop.

I'm revealing this now, because I'm admittedly a bit scared that I'll be murdered during the night, being a prominent poster (which in retrospect wasn't all to great an idea) and all. I tend to die quickly in these games, and I'd like to be able to contribute something. Plus, there's all those other reasons that I've been mentioning.

I swear to you, I am not mafia and have the best interests of the townsfolk at heart.
I would be grateful if the doctor would please protect me.
I promise that killing me would be a very bad idea.

I hope you find me trustworthy enough not to kill me.
And sorry about jumping the gun on the revelation, but I like not dying.

Here goes nothing...
>submit<

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby SPsnow02 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:06 am UTC

Actually,

I Am The Cop

Not really, but just saying Rodan, We can't be sure, and it still doesn't solve who the hell we lynch today >.<
Rawr!

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:07 am UTC

You can be sure. Because I am telling you, and you should trust me.

I am the cop.

(Man, I sure hope my posts earlier were as supportive and trust-gaining as I thought.)

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby une see » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:07 am UTC

Rodan wrote:No editing? Whoops. I'll try to remember that.
(I don't believe I've edited anything except for adding info or making stuff clearer as of yet)

EDIT: I capitalized the word "I've". sue me.


Seriously, no editing. We have no idea what exactly you edited out or in, so please don't do that.

I just want to point out that Jahoclave's rp posts, while funny, are low-content and don't provide any actual information for us to analyze. I really wish people would be active and post. :\

Who hasn't posted yet since the game has begun? Nebuduck, Martin W, willwithskills, Macbi, AvalonXQ, michaelandjimi, Sorroth, The Moo Prophet.

Hmmm...more people have participated than I thought, I guess.
T.S. Eliot in "The Waste Land" wrote:APRIL is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Azrael001 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:10 am UTC

Personally I am suspicious of both Bf2flyby and SPsnow02. They were the first to start to work as a team to try and get someone lynched based on that person (Bulvox) only casting suspicion.

If I were the cop, those would be the first two that I examined.
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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Rodan » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:11 am UTC

Azrael001 wrote:Personally I am suspicious of both Bf2flyby and SPsnow02. They were the first to start to work as a team to try and get someone lynched based on that person (Bulvox) only casting suspicion.

If I were the cop, those would be the first two that I examined.

Oh they are, don't worry.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Sledgehmr » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:13 am UTC

SPsnow02 wrote:
sledgehmr wrote:since we're more likely to lynch a non mobster than a mobster we're still better off waiting for either information or a good reason to lynch someone. The majority of the time, lynch whoever is inexperienced enough to get the game started is a losing strategy, so in absence some additional reason to lynch someone we should wait till the cop can do his job.


It's also more likely than not that the cop will inspect a townie tonight, and wew'll be in the exact same position but with two less townies tomorrow night. Remember, there are 10 townies and 8 bad guys.


This isn't quite true, the chance mob A will lynch a townie is 10/14 (Rodan made this more complicated but the numbers are roughly the same, also there is a small chance the mobs will choose the same person, and the doctor might end up protecting one target ). Same for mob B. 1-(10/14)^2=.49 is the chance two townies die tonight. There's a large chance that 1 mobster dies tonight and a small chance 2 do.

And even ignoring this, the cop inspecting a townie still increases our odds of lynching a mobster.

As for what Rodan said, I'm not sure what to think. I don't know why he revealed himself today, since unless he's really paranoid he should know there's a small chance he'll die tonight. But it's really important we make a judgment about it.

Even if he's the only person to claim being a cop tonight, it doesn't mean it's true. Ignoring that the cop might post too late, the real cop knows there's a decent chance Rodan dies tonight if people don't seem persuaded, and so the real cop would know Rodan is a mobster and would stay quiet to make this more likely.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby Azrael001 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:14 am UTC

As soon as everyone else has posted we will see if someone else claims that they are in fact, the cop. I would like to believe Rodan...

With that, bed. Some of us have got work to go to in the morning.
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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby une see » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:14 am UTC

But Rodan, the point is that we can't be sure if you're the cop or not. If you are, though...I really don't know if that was a smart move. You sure as hell are going to be targetted now, and you better hope the doctor doesn't get killed tonight, and your investigations prove fruitful.

Question about the game: What happens if the doctor saves someone but is killed by mafia? Does the person still get saved? Also, if the cop investigates, and finds that someone is guilty or innocent, but gets killed, do we still get to find out the results of the investigation?
T.S. Eliot in "The Waste Land" wrote:APRIL is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.

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Re: MafiaScum round 2

Postby SPsnow02 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:15 am UTC

Rodan, You don't want to waste your time on me. Bulvox accused me right off the bat, which is not only suspicious, its a HORRIBLE STRATEGY. I don't see why more of you don't recognize that >.<
Rawr!


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