dedalus wrote:¡This cheese is burning me! Rakysh I went to bed, woke up to find you lynched. Took me a few reads to notice you were actually scum hur durr. But yeah, right now if the cop claims, then the mafia/werewolves have 2 targets to hit before they can take out the cop, if he doesn't, they only have one. So I'd say ftc isn't a good idea till cop gets some information. Oh and I was ambiguous before saying reasons for and against; so yeah. Right now I think it'd do more harm then good.

Uh....no.

We have ONE cop come out, and have him get saved by both people. No, it makes no difference which we do first, Rakysh - If you're so keen to hit the mafia first instead, then we'll do that. It's just that we want

one cop out now, not two, because we can only reliably protect one cop from both factions at once. Personally I think it's best and fairest to put this decision to an informal vote.

...exactly how much proof do you need that this is best?

We currently have two cop-like figures: one who can investigate werewolves, and one who can investigate mafia. We have two lifesavers, a doctor who can save the mafia's victims, and an angel who can save people from werewolves.

From here until at least the end of this post, I'll go ahead and use the following shorthand:

W - werewolves; Wdoc - angel; Wcop - seer; M - mafia; Mdoc - doctor; Mcop - cop.

W and M can't win together, and would seem to want each other dead almost as much as they want the town dead (except, of course, town is bigger..), and W and M are vulnerable to each others' attacks.

Assuming we do nothing substantial today, have no roleclaims and no significant information (which I recognize is a stretch) then each factions actions can be modeled by a random choice.

(I'm not sure where to start with the probability theory stuff, so I'll start more basic than I actually think anyone needs. Just skip whatever's obvious to you:

The probability of two different things BOTH happening is the probability of the first happening time the probability of the second happening. As an example, the probability of getting two heads in two flips of a coin is (1/2)*(1/2), or 1/4.

To see this, look at the four possible (equally likely) outcomes of flip 1 and flip 2: {hh, ht, th, tt}. For each outcome of the first flip, each possible outcome of the second flip yields a unique case. From this example, it's easy to see that there's a 25% of two heads, 25% of two tails, and 50% of a mix.

To find the probability that an event will

not occur, simply subtract it from 1 (100%): if something has a 1 in 4 chance of happening, then it has a 3 in 4 chance of NOT happening. Does anyone need proof of this?

Now (and here's the main point) to find the probability of the occurrence of any one of a small subset of the possible outcomes, you can't simply add the probabilities of each together - as with our coin illustration, you can't say that the probability of getting at least one "heads" in two coinflips is 100% (50% for the first plus 50% for the second). Instead you have to find the chance of the opposite not happening, namely, the chance you won't get tails both times.

So the probability of getting at least one heads is the probability that you will not get something other than heads twice in a row, that is:

1-((1-1/2)*(1-1/2))

=1-(1/2)*(1/2)

=1-1/4

= 3/4 or 75%.

Now what we really want is to expand this to the more complicated case appropriate here, that is, we want to find the probability that at least one of our two cop like people will die tonight, and a result of the random choices of two mafaic factions.

To do this we need two separate figures, the chance W will kill either Mcop or Wcop, and the chance M will kill either Mcop or Wcop. Assuming the factions know nothing about the identities of either cop, this is (2 cops)/(9 possible targets - eleven playing, minus two in the faction).

So the chance of mafia killing one of the cops is 2/9, and the chance of them NOT killing any cop is 7/9, and the chance of werewolves killing one of the cops is 2/9, and the chance of them NOT killing any cop is 7/9.

The chance of neither of them killing any cops (the chance both cops survive), then, is (7/9)*(7/9), or 49/81, or 60.5%

And we know that the chance of the case just mentioned NOT happening is 1 - (7/9)^2, or 1 - 60.5%, or 39.5%.

This, by the way, is if we no-lynch this round. If we lynch someone who is not a cop, the chance of one cop dying is 1 - (6/8)^2 or 43.75%

Interestingly, this is also exactly the chance of at least one scum dying in the first night if we nokill (39.5%) or lynch a townie (43.75%)

See, I'm not comfortable with putting our cops at that great a risk this early in the game.

We can also exploit the fact that the two factions do not like each other, and are every bit as vulnerable to each other's attacks as they are to the town's.

That means that while M wants to take out Mcop and Mdoc, they won't be particularly inclined to kill Wdoc or Wcop - and likewise vice versa.

Since Rak wants to hit mafia first, I'll assume we'll do that, but please understand that because the factions are symmetric with respect to one another, the results should be the same no matter which group we concentrate on first.

So here's what I am proposing we do: we choose a faction on which to focus our attention first - how about mafia. We collectively instruct Mcop to make his identity known, and we instruct Mdoc to stay hidden and save Mcop, while Mcop investigates to try find mafia. Mcop is 100% safe as long as Mdoc is alive, and as long as the werewolves don't kill him. To give the werewolves extra incentive to not do something so foolish, we decide from the outset that, if Mcop dies, our attention will be immediately turned on them instead. Actually, Wdoc should probably save him as well.

Anyway, after we lynch someone scummy-looking like dedalus, the single unID'd cop has a bit over a 23% chance of dying, and, because the other cop is safe, that means we only have a 23% chance of losing a cop the first night. As far as I'm concerned, that's a dramatic improvement over 44%.

I also think that because there are so many people with useful (and just about indispensable) power roles in this game with relatively few vanilla townies and two people (probably) dying each night, no-kills might be much more in our best interest than they would be in a normal mafia game. Of course, if we really think someone's scum then we need to kill them, but if we would be going at the decision more-or-less randomly, we're likely to make a bigger mistake than we realize. Moreover, two votes for an innocent suspect can easily be hammered into six by mafia and werewolves.