Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 3) The End.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Pregame and such)

Postby nsmjohn » Sun May 03, 2009 12:01 am UTC

Present. Sort of.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf Day 1: An attack from two fronts

Postby myrrh7x » Sun May 03, 2009 12:18 am UTC

11/11

The remaining villagers banded together and formed a mob.
They were ready to get rid of their infestations.
They wanted revenge for their fallen.
And so begins the game.

Day 1 Begins~

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This topic was no longer topical

Postby MasterOfAll » Sun May 03, 2009 12:27 am UTC

Okay, it looks like we have "game on" finally. Man, there are a bunch of eager beavers in this game. What part of "don't vote until everyone has confirmed" did you not understand?

Anyway, about the FTC discussion. I guess the question I have is whether scum have any reason to kill the seer (or if werewolves have any reason to kill cop). I don't think they do, since they would be better served NK'ing a random target hoping to get one of the power roles that target their faction. If we agree with this, then I see no reason we shouldn't have both the seer and the cop claim, so they can each be protected by their angel/doctor. Then, odds are that neither will find a valid lynch target on night one, but they should both still be around to tell us who they investigated.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Pregame and such)

Postby nsmjohn » Sun May 03, 2009 12:34 am UTC

And thus it begins, the long and arduous dance of whether or not certain roles should claim. In my experience it has never worked out too well.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) A two front attack

Postby myrrh7x » Sun May 03, 2009 12:39 am UTC

By the way, all votes casted before the day began will not be counted.
That is all.
Last edited by myrrh7x on Sun May 03, 2009 1:54 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Pregame and such)

Postby Christophoros » Sun May 03, 2009 12:45 am UTC

As I understand it, the Mafia and Werewolves are both anti-town, and therefore having fewer actual townies is good for them. So why would they not just target someone who they KNOW is a townie, rather than risk hitting one of the other scum faction?
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Pregame and such)

Postby MasterOfAll » Sun May 03, 2009 12:50 am UTC

Well, if the scum accidentally kill one werewolf, no big deal, since the remaining werewolf can still NK. And, likewise for the opposite case. So, if I was one of the anti-town players, I would try to convince my partner that our best chance of winning would be by leaving both the cop and seer alone on the first night.

But, since I am town, I will try to convince as many people as possible to claim seer/cop (josiah already claimed seer, right?).
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Pregame and such)

Postby josiahstevenson » Sun May 03, 2009 1:30 am UTC

I am seer, that's correct.

I think MoA is right that the mafia will probably not kill me, but I think it might be safer to keep only one cop out at a time.

I think that if the mafia kills me tonight (despite the ineffective healing power of the angel) then the werewolves are likely to devour the cop the following night to return the favor.

and, now that the day's officially begun i suppose I'll make this all bold and official:
roleclaim: seer

I think that now hat i'm out, the cop should wait - at least until there's consensus that he should come out.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Pregame and such)

Postby dedalus » Sun May 03, 2009 1:54 am UTC

heh considering there's only 3 vanilla townie roles, I'm wondering what a mass roleclaim would do.
Hmmm actually thinking about it, that mightn't be the best idea. Considering there's 2 kills per night, and we start off with a 4:7 ratio, then assuming that the doc's dont hit, dogs dont kill mafia and vice versa, we go to 3:5 by the second day, 2:3 by the third (unless we remove an entire faction in which case it's 2:4) and 1:2 by the fourth - those odds aren't cool during those nights and if we mass rc then mafia/doggies would know who to hit, making assumptions valid. Urgh, not cool.

By these odds it's looking remarkably likely that the werewolves and mafia will team up for the first few nights... In which case it's probably in our best interests for the cop to not claim so that the doc can use his save on the seer. If the cop does claim it puts doc, angel, mafia and doggies in a massive WIFOM, and chances of that turning out well for the town are low.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Pregame and such)

Postby Kipper » Sun May 03, 2009 3:21 am UTC

If the cop claims, we have problems.
The werewolves kill the cop, the mafia kills the seer, and we are down two cops. Cooperation is beneficial for both in a double claim situation.
For safety's sake, lets defend the seer with everything.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Pregame and such)

Postby tokol » Sun May 03, 2009 9:07 am UTC

Hey guys. Confirming. I'm out of town, and I won't have better than rare Internet access until Monday. Sorry for the inconvenience. :(

I don't have anything very substantive to post at the moment. The seer claim and protection seems like a good strategy to reduce our odds of losing a cop-role night one.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby Gojoe » Mon May 04, 2009 1:13 am UTC

Uh... follow the cop never ends well sir. Also, what the hell is the point in revealing on day one. The general strat is to claim after you can either a) save a townie b) you can convict a mafia or in an extreme lurking case c) we have too many options, so you would investigate one of the people we find suspicious.

Also, on the whole mafia vs werewolf thing. They are the most dangerous. So the werewolves and mafia should try to kill each other before townies. The logic behind that is that mafia and werewolves control the votes as much as townies do, but they also get a NK. So while they are anti town, they are also anti the other faction.

Make sense?
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby josiahstevenson » Mon May 04, 2009 2:34 am UTC

Gojoe wrote:Uh... follow the cop never ends well sir. Also, what the hell is the point in revealing on day one. The general strat is to claim after you can either a) save a townie b) you can convict a mafia or in an extreme lurking case c) we have too many options, so you would investigate one of the people we find suspicious.

Also, on the whole mafia vs werewolf thing. They are the most dangerous. So the werewolves and mafia should try to kill each other before townies. The logic behind that is that mafia and werewolves control the votes as much as townies do, but they also get a NK. So while they are anti town, they are also anti the other faction.

Make sense?


...I really, really thought I explained this before. Basically, it's so that I'll be protected from an NK, making us as a town less likely to lose one of our cop-like-figures on the first night.

As for trying to kill each other before townies, the strategy followed by the scum will vary based on their personalities - they're not omniscient, and there are good arguments to be made for prioritizing town as well as for prioritizing the other faction. I don't put it past people I don't know to do shoot me expecting the werewolves to return the favor when they get the chance - nor do I put it past the werewolves to devour the cop in reciprocity.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby dedalus » Mon May 04, 2009 4:40 am UTC

Gojoe there's arguments both ways really... As you increase the number of NK's it becomes increasingly likely the cop will get randomly targeted, which increases the advantages to claiming. Either way though, it's been done now, we'll just have to take the advantages/disadvantages as they come. As it is, with 24+ hours since he claimed i really doubt we're going to get counterclaims, which eliminates a suspect.

Man this game is quiet... are our villagers mute?
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby Rakysh » Mon May 04, 2009 5:40 am UTC

Yes.

>_>

I think we have a severe attack of the day ones.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby MasterOfAll » Mon May 04, 2009 6:15 am UTC

Plus, it was the weekend. And people have lives, and such.

Yeah, I still think it would be okay for the cop to also claim, but obviously, if the cop would rather take his chances being protected by anonymity, then I understand.

But, since we haven't had a seer counterclaim, I will go ahead and believe josiahstevenson. So, I am willing to lynch anyone other than him here on day 1.
Kipper wrote:SERIOUSLY. Listen to MoA, he knows his stuff. . . High five MoA!
(not funny, but true)
ameretrifle wrote:MoA is an astute logician and is, in fact, directly related to Sherlock Holmes on his mother's side.
(ditto for this one)

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby nsmjohn » Mon May 04, 2009 6:21 am UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:Plus, it was the weekend. And people have lives, and such.

Amen to that, I've been taking care of a lot of stuff this weekend. I'll be a lot more active during the week.

For the record I am also inclined to believe Josiah.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby josiahstevenson » Mon May 04, 2009 7:22 am UTC

Well, because we're almost as likely to lynch a power role as we are to lynch scum, and lynching scum won't keep anyone from dying tonight, I think it's best if we
VOTE: no-lynch
to minimize the number of deaths in the first round, at least until someone makes themselves obvious as scum.
See, with the paucity of information we have, our first lynch is likely to be arbitrary.We really don't want to kill the doctor, cop, or angel, and forcing them to claim (at lynchpoint) would be equivalent to doing so.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby dedalus » Mon May 04, 2009 9:36 am UTC

@Josiahstevenson: A no-lynch is always a bad call. With no discussion, all it does is reduce the number of townies by approx 1-2 from NK, leaving us with no more information. By shoving around votes we get more information... and considering that there's less vanilla townies then scum, we're more likely to come out ahead then behind. In fact, if you hadn't claimed seer without a counterclaim that'd be a FOS from me.

MoA, right now without the cop claiming the doctor has the option of protecting the seer on the basis that the mafia may try to hit him to remove town power roles. If the cop claims, then the angel and doc are thrown into big big WIFOM, whereas right now he's fairly well protected by anonymity. However, right now I'm beginning to think that mafia killing seer is a bad idea; the seer's survival makes it worse for the werewolves only later in the game, and they're a fair certainty to get 2 kills off before dying out, beyond which their threat to the mafia becomes greater then the benefit.

Anyway, strategising does little or nothing to the game in reality except starting conversation, text analysis and the such does much more. Thus, I'm going to FOS: MasterOfAll for the following:
MasterOfAll wrote:So, if I was one of the anti-town players, I would try to convince my partner that our best chance of winning would be by leaving both the cop and seer alone on the first night.

But, since I am town, I will try to convince as many people as possible to claim seer/cop (josiah already claimed seer, right?).

I'm sorry, but 'if I was, but I'm definitely not' is iffy to me. You would claim to be town whether or not you were scum, and explicitly hypothesising what you would do if you were scum is emphasizing that claim to be town a bit too much to be believable.

Yeah, I still think it would be okay for the cop to also claim, but obviously, if the cop would rather take his chances being protected by anonymity, then I understand.


Post 39 (I think... can't see a post count so I'm doing my own here), I put foward a reason why cop shouldn't claim. As such, this line seems pretty damn scummy. I know your predisposition towards ftc, but it's a touch lighthanded for an experienced town, and you're not new afaik.

One of these mistakes I'd pass up (for now), but the combination is suss. In fact... it's suss enough to get a vote: MasterOfAll.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby Rakysh » Mon May 04, 2009 9:48 am UTC

Ok, so Josiah is out. That leaves us with:

3 power roles

3 townies

4 scum.

No, if we take the lynch as random, those odds aren't too great for me. However, if we do get close to lynching a power role, they should claim, even if it mean they'll be nk'd. We wait to see if there's a counter claim, and if not, we move on to another scummy player.

Then it will be down to 3 townies, 4 scum.

I like me them odds.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby nsmjohn » Mon May 04, 2009 4:56 pm UTC

Ah the intricacies of this game, it is going to take a moment for me to get my head back in the proper frame of mind to play properly but for now:

I agree with dedalus that no-lynch is a bad call. Even though we stand a chance of hitting a townie, we also stand a chance of hitting an anti-town character. Furthermore, the first day always provides a ton of text that comes in helpful when analyzing later on.

Ack, meeting, will be back later to point fingers in a dangerous manner.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby Rakysh » Mon May 04, 2009 5:58 pm UTC

I think I made it clear in my last post, but just for the record, I too am against no-lynch. While it might mean we flush out a power role, the benefits outweigh that possible side affect.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby moody7277 » Mon May 04, 2009 6:11 pm UTC

Rakysh wrote:I think I made it clear in my last post, but just for the record, I too am against no-lynch. While it might mean we flush out a power role, the benefits outweigh that possible side affect.


But on the gripping hand, we already have one power role flushed out. If we're two votes from lynching someone, and they suddenly shout, "Wait, I'm the doctor!" we are in deep trouble.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby Rakysh » Mon May 04, 2009 6:27 pm UTC

Yeah, that was my problem. And actually thinking about it, any scum would say that, so as to make the real doctor counter-claim.

Aw, no. I think I'm heading towards a no lynch :(.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby Kipper » Mon May 04, 2009 6:54 pm UTC

If we no-lynch, night kills happen, potentially hitting a doc and screwing josiah, then the day starts, and we're in the same situation. There's less discussion on a lynch, and thus less accurate investigations, and less accurate future lynchings. Chances are, the mafia/werewolves are going to find the doc/angel/cop before josiah finds the two werewolves.
Translation: No-lynch is BAD.

As for a potential fake doctor claim, I think we can deal with that when/if we get there.

In other news, I agree with dedalus' suspicions of MoA. The cop should absolutely not claim, or else it puts the scum in a situation where working together is better. Wolves nuke cop, mafia nukes seer, and we're out two roles. Nothing else majorly stands out to me at the moment...
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby Rakysh » Mon May 04, 2009 7:07 pm UTC

Night kills will happen regardless of who we hit. I think that attitude to false doctor claims is a little naive. That way we could lose the doctor this night FOR CERTAIN.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby Kipper » Mon May 04, 2009 7:23 pm UTC

1. Night kills happen tonight, but if we lynch well, we might only have one the following night. And even though the NK wouldn't disappear, lynching a scum is still a good thing. And it's a necessary thing, why give them a head start?
2. We could lynch a doc today, that's still true tomorrow. There's always a risk of lynching a power role, doing a NL won't change that.

Actually, I'm not going to argue this with you, no lynch is bad. If you think I'm wrong, then either A. Find someone who has enough patience to prove you wrong, or B. read one of the many games where NL was proven to be a bad idea.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby Rakysh » Mon May 04, 2009 7:39 pm UTC

Ok, I wasn't saying we should definitely no-lynch, just that it should be discussed.

My problem was thus:

Suspicious person: I think you are Mafia- I vote

Mafia- I'm not mafia, I'm a doctor

Doctor- Liar! I'm the doctor.

(we proceed to lynch the mafia)

That night...

Werewolf: Hmm, maybe I should kill that doctor... Yeah, that would be strategically useful. I think I shall do that.

My issue is, I can't think of a way to prove a doctor claim wrong other than a counter claim.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby Dromtry » Mon May 04, 2009 8:55 pm UTC

I have a couple things to say here.

1) I'll only be able to get on sporadically this week, I have my last days of review before finals and classes are down to one large session a day, which could be an hour or seven.

2) I'm still pretty new, and I looked through the 'how to play' topic, and I just can't find this. What the hell does 'NK' mean?
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby nsmjohn » Mon May 04, 2009 9:08 pm UTC

Dromtry wrote:What the hell does 'NK' mean?

Night Kill. It is the evil thing that both the Werewolves and the Mafioso's get to do at night.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby dedalus » Mon May 04, 2009 9:39 pm UTC

@everyone who wants to NL:
A vote to no-lynch simply wastes all the town's powers, and leads onto night. Our seer has a 1/5 chance of finding a werewolf, same goes for the cop. Right now the typical case re: angel v werewolves is that the angel will protect the seer and the werewolves will kill someone else, and the doctor has a 1/11 chance of protecting the right person. They're not big statistics. Thus, we almost definitely end up 2 townies down, and with little information bar 'person X is not a werewolf'... seeing as how the cop should hardly claim to say 'person Y is not a mafia'. Also, considering the large chance that a power role will be hit randomly, the argument to 'don't lynch, we might out the doc!' is a pretty poor one. We have about 4-5 nights to find all the mafia and werewolves and lynch them; we don't have time to play soft and call for 'no-lynch'.

There you go kipper, done your explaining for you =P lol.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby MasterOfAll » Mon May 04, 2009 10:01 pm UTC

A no-lynch is almost always a bad thing. There are actually times when it make sense, but this ISN'T one of them.

Unfortunately, I seem to be the only player who has been called out for acting suspicious. Damn, I hate it when that happens. Well, all I ask is that nobody jump on the bandwagon too quickly, so there is at least plenty of time for the actual scum to tip their hands.

I still think that having the cop come out would not be a horrible idea. I really don't see the scum and dogs working together. Scum wants the seer to report that he has found a werewolf, and dogs want the cop to report that he has found a mafioso, since that will produce a lynch of the competition (and prevent a lynch of their own faction. All I'm saying, is that if I was the cop, I would have also claimed.

@Rakysh - if someone claims doctor, you just lynch them anyway, since there is never any reason to claim doctor/angel. And if you are the real doctor/angel and about to be lynched, you still just don't claim, since you know it is pointless. Now, if we allowed doctors/angels to protect themselves, then things might be different, since one could claim and then save oneself. But, all that claiming in our games accomplishes is pretty much the same as saying, "Hey, please kill me next!"
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ameretrifle wrote:MoA is an astute logician and is, in fact, directly related to Sherlock Holmes on his mother's side.
(ditto for this one)

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby dedalus » Mon May 04, 2009 11:00 pm UTC

MoA, what are you on? If any power role is at L-1 it's advantageous to claim... If it gets the lynch off them and onto a possible mafia, then even if they get killed that night it's better that the town don't do the dirty work for the mafia. It's a last chance situation though.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby tokol » Tue May 05, 2009 3:54 am UTC

I feel like the Werewolves and Mafia will probably try to help each other out this early in the game. It must be their love of killing townies. ;)

I have a minor suspicion of Christo right now, but that's definitely not anything to go on. The talk of MoA as anti-town has also riled my suspicion. Nothing here to go on though, except maybe to converse.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby dedalus » Tue May 05, 2009 5:12 am UTC

Thoughts thus far:

Player List
1. MasterOfAll - seeing as he's got my vote on him, it's pretty obvious what I think. Read my post accusing him if you want to see my logic.

2. nsmjohn - hasn't yet posted anything much, but d1 lurking seems fairly common... so yeah not much either way.

4. josiahstevenson - claimed seer, no counterclaims. Seems safe by my bet.

5. tokol - nothing substantial except the last post, what's your suspicion based on? Throwing a comment like that against a player who hasn't done much bar lurking is a bit weird. Also, your 'feel like' comment in the last post... it's a little scummy. Bit ambivalent here though, you're new right? raises some suspicions though.

6. moody7277 - not much posting either, so again could be either way.

7. Dromtry (is pumped for finally a chance at mafia) - new and tied up with exams, thus lurking can be justified. Will leave off judgement till later.

8.Gojoe (how can i resist when an old hand like nsmjohn is in it?) - a single post, and hasn't replied to an argument against said post... I've read a few past games with you in them, and you seemed more active then this. Could just be explained by being busy... Iono though. Nothing substantial but.

9. Kipper (Oh fine!) - So far seems fairly active pro-town, no reason to suspect.

10. Rakysh (ah, what the hell. Why not?) - Considering how easy he cracked under pressure in the SK game, I'm fairly sure he's town this time.

11. Christophoros - Lurking, only real suspicion is tokol's claim of suspicion... apart from the possibility that tokol is throwing his partner to lynch in order to clear his own name, this is fairly standard behaviour.

This being said, all lurkers are suspect as lurking is anti-town behaviour by definition. But that's pretty much all I can drag out of the conversation thus far.
And with that, FOS: tokol... explain your random claim, and 'feeling'.
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Christophoros
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby Christophoros » Tue May 05, 2009 2:06 pm UTC

tokol wrote:I feel like the Werewolves and Mafia will probably try to help each other out this early in the game. It must be their love of killing townies. ;)

I agree. I can't see what benefit they'd have in fighting amongst themselves at the beginning. They want town to control as little of the lynch as possible. Given Seer's already claimed, I think it would be best if both Angel and Doctor protected him tonight. That will guarantee that we get some information. If they don't both defend, then we're relying on the two scum factions fighting each other, and I just don't see that happening.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby moody7277 » Tue May 05, 2009 2:08 pm UTC

tokol wrote:I feel like the Werewolves and Mafia will probably try to help each other out this early in the game. It must be their love of killing townies. ;)


While they would like to help eachother, we must remember that they don't know who the other anti-town team is (i.e. mafia don't know who the werewolves are and vice versa). There is a not insignificant chance (7/16*) that one of the bad guys will get caught in the crossfire from the other bad guys, at which point the town happy dance can begin.


*note: odds use the fact the seer is out and assume that, a. the werewolves won't waste a kill thinking the angel has the seer covered, b. the mafia wants the seer alive to out the wolves and heighten their chances for a win.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby nsmjohn » Tue May 05, 2009 4:19 pm UTC

dedalus wrote:2. nsmjohn - hasn't yet posted anything much, but d1 lurking seems fairly common... so yeah not much either way.

I have always been a lurking until forced out of my hole. My activity picks up when there is something to say/analyze. Also, I have work and commute to contend with which cuts down on available time.
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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby tokol » Tue May 05, 2009 7:00 pm UTC

dedalus wrote:5. tokol - nothing substantial except the last post, what's your suspicion based on? Throwing a comment like that against a player who hasn't done much bar lurking is a bit weird. Also, your 'feel like' comment in the last post... it's a little scummy. Bit ambivalent here though, you're new right? raises some suspicions though.


It's just what I was thinking after a read through. The number and lack of content of Christo's posts came off to me with the "I'm paying attention, but lurking to avoid tells" way.

Since my last post, Christo posted a good explanation of what I was saying on why we shouldn't count on the anti-town factions not helping each other out. It's better content, but hasn't really helped my suspicions. I'll still be keeping an eye on him.

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Re: Mini: Mafia And Werewolf (Day 1) An attack from two fronts

Postby myrrh7x » Tue May 05, 2009 7:38 pm UTC

Current Vote Count:
1 No-lynch (JSson)
1 MoA (dedalus)

For later so I don't need to write this down.


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