The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Iz ded.

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PossibleSloth
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby PossibleSloth » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:27 pm UTC

I'm actually coming around to MoA's idea. Seeing who people pick for their "investigations" will give us a lot of information to work with (and I can't resist a good logic puzzle). Plus, although it would be unfortunate, loosing the cop does not mean loosing the game, especially since we've got a potential godfather to worry about.

I can think of a few snags we might run into, but I'd be willing to try it "tomorrow".

Also, I'm working on a player-by-player post and I'll try to have it up sometime today. It would be nice if others would do the same. Even a short "people I trust/people I don't trust" list could be helpful when we're looking for connections between players.

Avelion wrote:What would happen if we were all to make a random non-scum role-claim tomorrow?

CF wrote: Don't think that you can get away with a cheap win by having everyone Role Claim. Rest assured I have put measures into this game Role-wise that will ensure that things will go badly for you.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby dedalus » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:00 pm UTC

If you can all promise to not lynch me till tuesday, I'll pick up activity then! Sorry about the further delays :(
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Avelion » Fri Dec 11, 2009 3:40 am UTC

I was thinking more along the lines of what you guys think will actually happen to us if we did it.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby PossibleSloth » Fri Dec 11, 2009 4:02 am UTC

Here's what I've got so far:
(I apologize in advance if I mix up gender-specific pronouns)
Spoiler:
1. MartinW

I trust Martin. He's been active and helpful and I don't see any reason to think he's scum.

2. Flying_Cookie

Made a discussion vote on avelion, doesn't like the Rhyme bandwagon. Finds avelion's response suspicious. Back and forth with Rakysh. Non-commital about MoA's cop investigation plan (hereafter referred to as MCIP).

I'm not really suspicious at this point.

3. OMGLOLZORS

Made a role speculation post. Says that he'll vote Rhyme if we don't hear from her soon. Rhyme had 3 votes at this point. Votes Furioso for lurking.

Not sure. The role speculation post didn't bother me, but I don't like his willingness to lynch lurkers (although this describes several people in this game)

4. Rhyme

Seems to suggest that the people who came out against lynching her might be scum, but this is then qualified several times (WIFOM and such). This would be F_C and MoA and to a lesser extent Rakysh. Asks what sort of mechanisms could exist to prevent roleclaiming. Responds to MCIP, but just lists pros and cons without really stating a preference one way or the other. Is suspicious of Avelion.

I feel pretty good about her. Some of her posts seemed indecisive, but that's understandable this early.

5. Weeks

Says he doesn't have much role-speculation to add, wonders if there's "any chance we can find out about anyone". Thinks Capone is either SK or cult. Votes Rhyme for lurking. Says Furioso is lurking as well.
Brings up furioso again, unvotes Rhyme, still seems suspicious of her. Promises more analysis later in the week.

Lots of short posts. I'll see if he comes back with some real analysis.

6. Rakysh

Role speculation, capone as SK, Hudgins as lyncher, probably not paranoid or insane. Doesn't like no-lynch.
FOS' Oh me yarm for role speculation post. Says it was to get discussion going. Thinks there may not be a jester in the game.
Rakysh wrote:Well, now Avelion is back in, it seems it must be Rhyme. I say we wait for a day, give xhe a chance.

Is suspicious of Flying Cookie for not unvoting avelion. Attacks cookie again. Then backs off and apologizes.
Likes MCIP. Lists post counts. Votes furioso (after Oh me yarm). Says he's rusty and always gives off scum pings.

Being very aggressive. Backed off F_C when no one else found him suspicious. Rusty or not, they're scumtells and I'm suspicious.

7. Andymeo

Agrees with martin's role speculation. Asks if no-lynch is a viable option. Agrees Hudgins is a lyncher and Miss Allens is "other".
Votes furioso after the 2nd vote on Rhyme, says he "doesn't want to bandwagon. Hasn't spoken in a while.

I don't know. I got some bad vibes from him. If he starts posting more content I'll feel better about him.

8. Furioso

ZZZZzzzz....

9. Senefen

3rd to bandwagon on Rhyme. Defends bandwagoning and lynching lurkers. Unvotes once Rhyme returns. Argues against no-lynch.

Hasn't contributed much. I don't know what to think.

10. PossibleSloth

Exercise left to the reader...

11. MasterofAll

Mostly agrees with martin on role speculation. Big post, lots of role speculation.
MoA wrote:I strongly believe we are only looking for 4 total anti-town (the 1 SK and 3 scum), and I provided the standard cop and doctor recommendations since we have new players.

Encourages weeks to contribute. Doesn't like the Rhyme bandwagon.
Thinks that the scum are among the non-contributors and again encourages people to contribute more. Proposes Cop Investigation Plan. Clarifies plan.
Posts player-by-player notes
MoA wrote:at this point I could support a Rakysh lynch, or a Senefen lynch, or an Avelion lynch.


He's been helpful. I'm inclined to trust him for now.

12. Avelion

lurks for a while, returns and votes Rhyme (2nd vote for Rhyme). Suggests F_C and Rhyme are lovers. Unvotes Rhyme when she returns.
Suggests no-lynch, defends no-lynch. Votes for Furioso (3rd vote for furioso). Unvotes when it looks like furioso is being replaced. Doesn't like MoA's plan.

Again, going after lurkers (and only lurkers) is suspicious. May just be inexperienced though.

I'm currently suspicious of Rakysh, Andymeo and Avelion.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Andymeo » Fri Dec 11, 2009 5:51 am UTC

Sorry about not posting sooner, Ive been on holidays at the beach so havent had internet.
I should have warned you
Ill post some analysis later in the week but im on holidays till wednesday.....im at an internet cafe now.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Rakysh » Fri Dec 11, 2009 7:15 am UTC

Honestly, I wouldn't have been so aggressive if this game wasn't so bloody quiet.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Rakysh » Fri Dec 11, 2009 7:16 am UTC

EBWOP: Not a dig at anyone, it's just that when I come back after a day with no new posts of whatever, I feel an urge to FoS someone or something, just out of fear of the game dying. Obviously we've picked up the pace now, so I wont be doing that so much.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby MartinW » Fri Dec 11, 2009 1:46 pm UTC

I think the false claim idea would not serve to cover the cop. If he does find mafia, the mafia'll know it's the cop and kill him. However, we won't know the mafia killed him because of his investigation claim. If everyone claims, every night someone will die who posted a fake investigation and we won't be able to see if his death was due to his claim or another thing he did. Even if not everybody claims, the mafia can still kill a person who points out a townie as scum to get that townie lynched.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Weeks » Fri Dec 11, 2009 8:34 pm UTC

I have brought more tea (Earl grey, cinnamon, mint and catnip), and...

I didn't comment on the false cop claim because I wasn't sure about it's pros and cons.
First of all...I think it depends slightly on what happens this night. If they kill the cop, it's nigh useless, right? Though the probability is kinda low (8.33%) it's still possible, and they could have a slight advantage if they could know who the cop is (via an informant, aka Miss Allen).
Second, it also depends on who we lynch.
Third, it depends on what methodology we use for the false-investigation-claiming-posts-hyphens. Do we do it randomly? Do we choose always different people? Will the cop lie? I'm not exactly sure of the effects every decision could have, but I'd like MoA to clarify a bit more, 'cause depending on what we do our chances of being correct and/or preventing cop death and/or avoiding a "follow the cop" vary.

This post may seem kind of confusing, but I've been really thinking about this and I want to know what you all think. Also I will analyze this more deeply after MoA tells us more clearly what the idea is (as in, choice by choice, possibility by possibility) and see if the odds are in our favor or not.

Damn, my head...
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby PossibleSloth » Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:20 pm UTC

There's also the chance that the player the actual cop investigates will be killed overnight, or that people base their claims on earlier ones ("I investigated ______ too and got the same/different result!").

I'm generally of the opinion that more info is better than less. Martin makes a good point about the mafia killing people with incorrect cop results in order to throw us off, but is this any different from what would happen otherwise? Mafia will always try to mislead or confuse. At least this will get people talking and force people who aren't actively discussing to make some opinions known. The question is whether this outweighs the risk of mafia finding the cop earlier. I think it might, but obviously I can't know for sure.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby MasterOfAll » Sat Dec 12, 2009 4:42 am UTC

Weeks, I am not quite sure exactly what you want me to clarify. So, I will just ramble on for a bit, and hopefully get lucky and address your concerns.

Yes, if we find out in the morning that the cop (the one we are all assuming is a normal, sane cop) is dead then it would most likely be pointless to attempt the mass false cop claim. Although as I pointed out earlier, there MAY be other players getting information during the night, an example being if the night kill does not happen then the doctor can feel pretty good about the target being town (especially if the flavor indicates that a doctor prevented night kill). And, there might be some other tracker/watcher/etc. abilities out there which would provide some information to some of us.

Anyway, let's just assume that the cop survives to the start of D2. And, let's also assume enough of us agreed so we do try the mass false cop claim idea. So, obviously each of us has a decision to make: who to pick as target of fake investigation, and whether to claim result was town, scum, anti-town, independent, other, etc. (Who even knows what CF plans to give as the actual results for the actual investigations of the actual cop, as some mods would give an "independent" result for a SK while others would give an "anti-town" and so on, but I do not think that really matters all that much, since nobody but the real cop and the mod will know this.) Of course, let's remember that the mafia ONLY know identities of each other. So, it is probably safest to stay away from any "scum" claims but to use "anti-town" instead, so that if you claim a player who is NOT scum is "anti-town", the scum team has to at least consider that you might be the real cop and have found the SK. Obviously, if you claim one of the actual scum is "anti-town" they are going to be worried that you are the real cop and that might get you killed, but even if you just got lucky by fingering actual scum, that death could very well help out town as the real cop should still be alive with additional investigation results (and yes town would have to figure out if scum was really trying to eliminate the cop or was just creating a WIFOM situation). Of course, the thing that really screams out "I am not the real cop!" is picking one of the scum as your fake target and then claiming a result of "town" or "independent". So, you should really be careful with who you pick as a fake target if you want to claim one of the non-scum results. Still, I expect that at least half of us will be willing to make a claim with a "town" result, since that is after all the majority team and is the most likely result the real cop is going to get on N1.

I do recommend that if we try out the idea, we try to reduce the number of repeat claims (someone mentioned this a while back) because that could be really bad if, for instance, three of us all claimed to get a "town" result on one of the mafia and made it really easy for them to narrow down who is the actual cop. So, I think it is best that we scatter both the targets and results as much as is reasonable.

Also, I think it would be a monumentally STUPID thing for the actual cop to make something up or even intentionally reverse the result on actual target. The whole point of the idea is to increase chance that some useful information is passed on by the cop. And yes, of course the cop might investigate the player who gets NK'd that night, or as the game goes on the player may be lynched or NK'd before the cop dies. Best case scenario is of course that the cop gets lucky tonight and gets some sort of "anti-town" result. Then, when the cop eventually dies, we would know to lynch that player if still around. On the other side, if the cop gives us a "town" result that we can fully believe once the cop dies, we have a CONFIRMED townie if that player is still around. The mafia would obviously want to eliminate a confirmed townie, but we might even have our doctor around at that point and scum might have used up any anti-role-claim power they were given.

One other thought is that if we do go ahead and give this a try on D2, be careful that you are willing to back up your claim with a later vote, since the real cop is not very likely to claim PlayerA is town and then turn around and jump onboard a PlayerA lynch, or to claim that PlayerB is anti-town but then be unwilling to vote for PlayerB.

Finally, the whole idea is just to get a little more information into the town's hands. The mass false cop claim is by no means going to make it "easy" to figure out who to lynch. We will still have to do all the sorts of things we normally do to pick out the scum among us.


And now, I am going to take issue with what Martin recently said . . .
MartinW wrote:I think the false claim idea would not serve to cover the cop. If he does find mafia, the mafia'll know it's the cop and kill him. However, we won't know the mafia killed him because of his investigation claim. If everyone claims, every night someone will die who posted a fake investigation and we won't be able to see if his death was due to his claim or another thing he did. Even if not everybody claims, the mafia can still kill a person who points out a townie as scum to get that townie lynched.
First of all, I think your first sentence is just saying is is stupid to have the real cop fabricate a result instead of reporting results from actual investigation. If that is the case, then I agree with you.

Onto your second sentence, though: I think it is a pretty silly assumption that a player who is correct with the "false claim" automatically dies. Mafia are going to have to consider whether they have found the real cop or just someone else who made a lucky guess (or fortunate quasi-informed assessment, since we all are analyzing everything anyone says looking for scumtells, so it is not totally unreasonable that some of us might correctly finger scum with our false claim).

Onto your third sentence: I have no idea what you are trying to say there.

Onto your fourth sentence: Scum are going to kill one of us every night anyway, so I think we might as well have everyone claim so that there is the chance we actually get some benefit from that death.

Onto your fifth sentence: You are saying that PlayerA claims that he investigated PlayerB and got a "scum" result, but the real mafia know PlayerB is not one of them, so the mafia NK PlayerA hoping that we will interpret that as an indication that PlayerA's claim was accurate (even though we just found out he is not the cop). Well, now that you pointed this out, scum is going to have to consider whether this is something they could get away with. Also, if scum to attempt this, whether or not town follows through with a lynch of PlayerB, the good news for the real cop is that he is still alive to perform more investigations. And, I will reiterate my previous assertion that I think it is wiser for us to stay clear of "scum" but to use "anti-town" instead, as this increases the odds that scum will have to consider that PlayerA might be the real cop (and thus the identity of the cop is better hidden).

tl;dr - It is a bunch of thoughts on the "mass false cop claim" idea, so feel free to ignore if you would rather concentrate on who we should lynch today.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Avelion » Sat Dec 12, 2009 5:12 am UTC

My doubts of the plan were based on an assumption that the only possible results were town, scum, or independent. The possibility of an anti-town result alleviates my resistance to the idea somewhat, but there's still a risk of giving the mafia more info than is necessary. Whether the risk outweighs the possible reward I'm not certain.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby MasterOfAll » Sat Dec 12, 2009 9:46 pm UTC

Yes, I think it is best we use "anti-town" and like I said it really doesn't matter what the real results from the real investigations say because that is not public knowledge (in other words, if the real cop gets a "scum" result he should instead report it to us as "anti-town").

Also, in my rambling I forgot to mention that we think it is highly likely that there is a Godfather who shows up as "town" to the investigation, so even if we end up with a dead cop and go back to find out that he claimed PlayerA was town, we will still have to consider that PlayerA might be the Godfather.
Kipper wrote:SERIOUSLY. Listen to MoA, he knows his stuff. . . High five MoA!
(not funny, but true)
ameretrifle wrote:MoA is an astute logician and is, in fact, directly related to Sherlock Holmes on his mother's side.
(ditto for this one)

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Flying_Cookie » Mon Dec 14, 2009 2:59 am UTC

The idea seems like it could work, but it also seems to need a lot more time spent planning it, and running over the pros and cons to decide if we should do it or not. I think that probably we shouldn't, since it seems too easy for scum to narrow down who the cop is by people who got accurate or inaccurate returns on them. And even when we know the cop died, there would still be a lot of wifom around. What if they lied about the result to not be targeted? What if they found the god father and didn't know? Etc. I think we should probably just stick with normal mafiaing, though if the majority of the town decides to go with the plan, I'm will to join in.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby dedalus » Mon Dec 14, 2009 6:51 am UTC

I'm back, will read up asap and try to contribute.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby MasterOfAll » Tue Dec 15, 2009 4:20 am UTC

Okay, now that our replacement player is finally here (and hopefully will contribute something meaty soon) it is really time to focus on who gets lynched here on D1. The deadline isn't until Friday, but it is about that time to start casting some votes (with reasoning included, please!).

So, has anyone put any time into this game recently and now have something new to contribute (ie. analysis of posts) or should I just go back to my previous list and pick someone from it to vote for? I will hold off a little while longer to see what dedalus has to contribute, but if nothing has happened by this time tomorrow I will probably just cast a vote to get things going.
Kipper wrote:SERIOUSLY. Listen to MoA, he knows his stuff. . . High five MoA!
(not funny, but true)
ameretrifle wrote:MoA is an astute logician and is, in fact, directly related to Sherlock Holmes on his mother's side.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby dedalus » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:58 am UTC

I think that the main thing about MoA's idea is that when the cop dies, we automatically get his results. Which is no bad thing; after all, having the cop die in the night with little to no information out of him is always good. As for strategy, I'd say if everyone else uses a random number generator (http://www.random.org is good), to get a number between 1 and 3, and if they get 3 then pick a person they think is guilty and claim a guilty result, but if they get 1/2 pick a person they think is fairly innocent and claim an innocent result. Seeing as the cop should continue to act like a cop (i.e. picking someone they have a hunch is guilty, or someone they think might be innocent but can't quite decide upon), it's in our best interests to get similar results, whereas if we all pick a random player and a random result then it becomes quite easy for the mafia to figure out who is who. But I think doing this gets us a fair amount of information whilst minimising risk, and it also gets us a lot of discussion, which is the key part of mafia.

Looking over the last page or so of discussion, here's the things that have stuck out for me:
FC's last post was fairly weak in terms of 'I don't think it's a good idea, but if you all want then sure', and his reasoning for it being a bad idea seemed to be based on a lot of unlikely hypotheticals.

I think that PS made a good point about the connection between Rakysh and Avelion. Especially about Rakysh giving off scum pings; he's definitely not one of the players like NaR or Brook who always seems scummy. And if Avelion has been on two LaL bandwagons then he's looking fairly suspect to me, and his reasoning is pretty meh ('I don't think we're going to get a non-random lynch here'). I also think that Rakysh's post count was a bit biased in favour of him, as many of his posts have been rather short as opposed to everyone elses (maybe a wordcount might be useful...)

Weeks is bordering on active lurking; Weeks, single line posts to say that you're still in the game is really really scummy. OMGLOLZORZ, Andymeo and Senefen are just inactive of late, seeing as they're all new to mafia possibly a modprod might be a better idea then trying to vote them into activity.

Currently, I'm thinking that MoA and Martin are pretty cleared of scumminess, I'm getting a good vibe from Rhyme and PS. FC I'm fairly iffy about, OMGLOLZORZ, Andymeo and Senefen I have no idea about, and if push came to shove I'd probably vote Rakysh or Andymeo. I'm a bit torn between them, because Rakysh is an experienced player and I'd like to give the newbies the ability to hang around, but at the same time he's also posting more, and this game needs activity.

With that being said, vets and semi-vets, remember that it's our job to try to keep this game going and outline our thoughts as much as possible (while still playing the game). And in that train of thought I apologise for leaving it so long to actually make a damned post.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby MartinW » Tue Dec 15, 2009 4:03 pm UTC

Hmm... With MoA's further explanation his idea is starting to sound possibly good to me. My original post objecting was horribly phrased, I admit.

My main argument was that it would allow the mafia to find the cop, with no repercussions. They could just kill whichever's investigations were most correct until they hit the cop. However, we would not know if a kill was due to this (and so find the mafia through the investigations claimed), because we don't know if they killed a person because his investigations were correct, or for other reasons (they thought he might be doc) or even if they did it just for WIFOM.

However, as MoA mentioned, the mafia will do not have perfect knowledge of everyone's alignment (as in a normal C9 game) because we have two mafia fractions (who don't know each other) and very likely some independents. So they'll find it harder to get scum.

Also, they might not even want to kill the cop if we do it like this, because it would confirm his every investigation. They might want to keep him alive until the endgame when they can counter claim, and so give us much less information.

to get a number between 1 and 3, and if they get 3 then pick a person they think is guilty and claim a guilty result, but if they get 1/2 pick a person they think is fairly innocent and claim an innocent result.

This I'm not so sure about. Everyone who'd gotten a 3 might focus on a few main people who are the most scummy seeming. If that person turns out to be innocent, everyone of them will be confirmed as fake claiming. On the other hand, picking a random person and giving your opinion on him as claim would let a very town seeming mafia member (which can and does happen) prove several claims and fake.

I'm still sitting on the fence about this somewhat, it has huge advantages but seems like it might reveal the cop. On the other hand seeing as it will probably take several days for the mafia to hit the cop (who'll by then have several investigations for us) I'm tentatively supporting it.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby MartinW » Tue Dec 15, 2009 4:05 pm UTC

EBWOP:
However, as MoA mentioned, the mafia will do not have perfect knowledge of everyone's alignment (as in a normal C9 game) because we have two mafia fractions (who don't know each other) and very likely some independents. So they'll find it harder to get townies disproved as cop by who they claim is scum.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Weeks » Tue Dec 15, 2009 7:55 pm UTC

Dedalus...I've always been a one-line poster. I tend to not post much unless it is necessary to get my point across.
Now, I realize this is Mafia and content is what matters here, but as you know, I'm a newbie and haven't already fully caught the grasp of the game yet. I learn slowly.

About the mass-false-cop-claim: I agree with MartinW's points, but I'm more inclined to follow this strategy because:
-If every player false claims and chooses another player (not randomly, but based on personal judgement) there's a good chance of covering the cop.
As MoA said, mentioning the factions as "anti-town" or "pro-town" (or otherwise making it so there's only two groups to choose from) would greatly reduce the chances of slipping.
I'll post calcs assuming no-lynch and no NK and that Al Capone is anti-town for easiness.
Say the groups are anti-town and not-anti-town (the latter group consisting of anyone who isn't an SK or scum, aka NAT). Taking into account that the godfather will turn out pro-town for the cop, the chances of hitting NAT correctly would be 75%.
Now, say the cop investigates and posts his/her true investigation: Player W is NAT.
The chance of getting a NAT correctly choosing Player X is 73%. Choosing player W nets a 75% chance.
The chance of two players making correct guesses (choosing players X and Y) would be 51%.
The chance of three making a correct guess (choosing players X, Y and Z) is 34%.

We could play with the guesses and have a couple choosing player W, another couple with X, and so on. I'd say the chances aren't that bad, given that we want to protect the cop.

This doesn't take into account the thing about the WIFOM kills, though, and that there could be an informant.

-Some player analysis:
MoA has been very helpful and proposed the mass-false-cop-claim idea. AFAIK, he is a veteran too. If CF wanted us newbies to survive in this game he may not have given MoA something very powerful.

The same goes for MartinW, who has also made very good posts. Though I have a small issue with him because of this:
MartinW wrote:
Weeks wrote:MartinW, what do you think about Miss Allens? You omitted her in your post.

*Checks back.* Oh, I did! Well, I think she's a town information gathering role of some sort. Busy-body seems to me to mean either a watcher (sees who targets a person, though not what they do) or a follower (sees who a particular person targets). Though it seems to me more likely to be a watcher, as passive observation instead of actively following someone sounds more like her kind of thing.
With the change of tone and his omission in his first post, I'd say he could be Miss Allen trying to hide his true abilities, but I recognize he could just have blundered and it was still kinda early in the game.

OMGLOLZORS is the first newb to post something meaningful, though it appears as a copy of MW's post. It didn't seem to me as one.

Rakysh...I must say I agree with what's been said about him, and he seemed kinda nervous in his posts.

Now Furioso never posted, but going with my previous line of thought, he may have been given some greater power given his lack of experience. I'd watch out for Dedalus having more power than he needed.

Rhyme made few posts but with high content. I think she's not very experienced AFAICT. Also came in as a replacement for another newbie. She seems quite townish.

Flying_Cookie...seems like an intermediate player or a nervous veteran. I haven't read that much into him, but I'd also watch out for him.

PossibleSloth has made quite coherent posts up to now, and he's also a vet. Also seems very townie for me, but I'd need more info to actually come to a conclusion.

About Avelion, Senefen, and Andymeo: All newbies, maybe there's a power role amongst them. I'm out of data...apart from the fact they've all lurked a lot.

That's all for now, I have to leave. I'll come back tomorrow and see what's happened.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Rakysh » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:22 pm UTC

Isn't speculation of power roles fairly well anti-town? I would also like to add that mods tend to randomise rather than hand pick roles.

I don't really think there's a great deal I can say against accusations of seeming a bit nervous; I'm doing my best. MoA, you're right, I didn't do word count which makes it less useful; that was more due to laziness than anything else. I was more intending to identify lurkers rather than show towniness through usefulness.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby MasterOfAll » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:17 pm UTC

Weeks, nice long post there. (I have not read it yet, but I am about to.)

Rakysh, I believe it was dedalus who suggested doing a word count instead of post count, not me. Still, it is a good point that it would be a better indicator of who is contributing. On the other hand, it would definitely take more effort (unless someone whips up a Greasemonkey script to automate it) than doing a simple post count (which is pretty easy to do using advanced search with the right parameters), so I definitely understand why you did the count you did.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby MasterOfAll » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:49 pm UTC

Regarding the advanced search tool, new players should be aware that if they are not careful they might inadvertently read stuff from inside the discussion thread spoilers. So, it is important to either include -canNever in list of words or change "Return First" from "300" characters of posts to "all available" or both. Here is a link to when I was a new player and complained about it, and you can scroll down just a bit to see where people made those useful suggestions. I know the subject has come up since then, and someone even marked up a screengrab to show the proper way to fill out the advanced search form, but I cannot really be bothered to find that post since it did not show up in the first search I did for it.

Regarding some stuff brought up by Weeks, I agree with Rakysh that most mods do usually assign roles randomly, but unless CF specifically tells us that is what he did, there is the possibility that he handpicked who got each role (making sure there was one veteran among the scum, for instance, so that the vet could explain various scum strategies to the others during the night chat). Still, unless we are specifically told by CF that he didn't randomly select the roles, I am not going to try to get any info from trying to metagame the mod to determine who he would pick for each role. But, I do like the way that Weeks is trying to think of various ways to figure out what's what.

Also, yes, it is nice to not try to help scum find out who the power roles might be. Sure, if you think you can figure some of that out, do it, but keep the info to yourself until you think it is really necessary to get it out there. Because, obviously, scum would love to target cops and doctors over more vanilla players for their nightkill. But, again, as Weeks is a new player I don't think we should hold it against him this time.

Okay, that's all I have for now. As there is still a discussion ongoing, I will wait until at least tomorrow before casting a vote, but at this point since I am not getting any strong scum vibes from anyone I am kinda leaning towards a vote for one of the players with the least content since those are the players it is hardest to figure out as the game goes on.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby dedalus » Wed Dec 16, 2009 1:28 am UTC

I think meta-gaming the mod role-wise isn't a good idea because the mafia are always in a better position (with more information then us) to do it, so any information given helps them, and this is borderline towards role-claiming, which we all know is a bad idea.

MartinW wrote:This I'm not so sure about. Everyone who'd gotten a 3 might focus on a few main people who are the most scummy seeming. If that person turns out to be innocent, everyone of them will be confirmed as fake claiming. On the other hand, picking a random person and giving your opinion on him as claim would let a very town seeming mafia member (which can and does happen) prove several claims and fake.

I'll have to think about it and do some statistics. It's a fairly hard situation to model just off the top of my head unfortunately :(

@Weeks: that was more advice then an accusation, sorry if it seemed different. The point is that you were posting one-liners berating yourself for not posting, which is saying 'I'm paying attention, but I've got nothing to say', which can often mean 'I don't want to get called inactive, but I don't want to draw attention to myself by posting', which often seems scummy. Anyway, your latest post has appeased me right now, but again, metagaming the mod as to who you think might receive power roles isn't the best idea. CF is notoriously creative in his punishments.

@Rakysh: I don't think people are raising points against you to defend against, they're just pointing out that your posts are somewhat iffy, and you seem to have a connection with Avelion. I'm still getting a feel for this game, so I'm loth to vote before I absolutely have to, but you're also fairly jumpy and quick to try to defend...

Actually, I might focus some post analysis on Rakysh sometime soon. We'll see how it goes.

cf: can we get a modprod on Senefen and Andymeo? Also possibly OMGLOLZORZ and Avelion? At your discretion though; harassing newbies to post isn't what I have in mind.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Flying_Cookie » Wed Dec 16, 2009 1:43 am UTC

dedalus wrote:FC's last post was fairly weak in terms of 'I don't think it's a good idea, but if you all want then sure', and his reasoning for it being a bad idea seemed to be based on a lot of unlikely hypotheticals.

Eh, Yeah. My mind pretty much works in unlikely hypotheticals. Pretty much my post was mostly because no one had said anything in quite a while, over a day, and I was hoping to get the game going.
Your summary was fairly accurate, I can't tell if its a good idea or not, but I think it would be much better to have everyone doing it if anyone does it.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby dedalus » Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:57 am UTC

As assumably whether or not someone is a cop has little influence on their decision on whether it's a good idea, if only percentage X decides to play this game, then there's a X chance the cop is amongst us, and thus you could treat the system as a microcosm of the whole; the smaller X is, the less chance that the data actually amounts to something, but the smaller chance the mafia has of finding the cop amongst the people. And especially if we introduce the idea that the cop might be lying, this further decreases the ability of the mafia to find him.

Just to make a point: if we do take this strategy, and the cop is considering lying, please only lie about guilty results (so only report guilty results as innocent) if you're considering lying. There's a few reasons for this:
1. If you report innocent as guilty, the mafia still can't 'prove' you're definitely not the cop (due to the multiple factions). The only time that the mafia can guess is if you report one of them as innocent.
2. We already have to accept that an innocent verdict from a cop isn't guaranteed due to the godfather, so even if people thought you weren't lying we can't immediately presume the innocence of everyone who was claimed innocent by the cop.
3. As your 'anti-town' results are guaranteed, if we know that anyone you pick as 'anti-town' is DEFINITELY 'anti-town' then it's an easy lynch. If there's some suspicion that you might have been fucking around with the results, it'll just introduce WIFOM.

So to put this shortly, if everyone participating in this agrees to this, it means we can't trust innocent verdicts 100%, but if a cop returns a guilty verdict and is killed later, we know who to lynch. And the cop can always turn around D3-4 and say 'oh yeah, I'm cop, I was lying, I did actually investigate X + Y but I didn't get them as innocent'.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Avelion » Wed Dec 16, 2009 4:00 am UTC

MartinW wrote:However, as MoA mentioned, the mafia will do not have perfect knowledge of everyone's alignment (as in a normal C9 game) because we have two mafia fractions (who don't know each other) and very likely some independents. So they'll find it harder to get scum.


I'm not comfortable with this assumption. According to the flavor text the only members of the mafia are Al Capone, Earl "Hymie" Weiss, George "Bugs" Moran, and Vincent "The Schemer" Drucci. It's stated that the latter three are all in one group which makes me think Capone is independent. I think the idea about Beau Stafford and Molly Creighton becoming jesters if the other dies seems very plausible and I don't seem them being scum roles. Miss Allens can't be a mobster because she has never left the town. Professor Bautlekar wouldn't have time for criminal shenanigans and Walter Hudgins is looking for criminal acts not committing them. I don't think a case needs to be made for Detective Paul I. Gardens. That leaves Colin Aames who has spent his post teenage life in the small town hiding from the mafia. The part about selling out his sister made me a little suspicious about him being part of Capone's mafia, but the sentence after that makes it seem unlikely. Since you can't have a mafia consisting of one person we have 3 mobsters and an independent or cult.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Senefen » Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:12 am UTC

I'm here.
Sorry, it's been a hectic week. If I can't get on more from now I'll resign.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Rakysh » Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:17 am UTC

dedalus wrote:@Rakysh: I don't think people are raising points against you to defend against, they're just pointing out that your posts are somewhat iffy, and you seem to have a connection with Avelion. I'm still getting a feel for this game, so I'm loth to vote before I absolutely have to, but you're also fairly jumpy and quick to try to defend...

Fair enough. I felt ignoring three FoS's in quick succession would have been a worse idea, but happy to learn.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby dedalus » Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:34 am UTC

Avelion wrote:Since you can't have a mafia consisting of one person we have 3 mobsters and an independent or cult.

Capone looks like he's either a SK or a cult leader, and either way would not be pro-town. As we're dividing the results into 'town' and 'anti-town' (or rather 'someone who the town needs to lynch' and 'someone who the town shouldn't lynch') and it should be expected that with whatever results the cop gets he can make that decision, then given the game setup it's feasible to expect that the scum can't guarantee they'd be the only people to have an anti-town result returned on.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Weeks » Wed Dec 16, 2009 4:23 pm UTC

@Dedalus: I see what you were getting at, thanks for the advice.
Also I misread your post as suggesting we picked a number for each faction (1 for town, 2 independent, 3 mafia) so I guess I was kinda redundant.

I believe the m-f-c-c idea is kinda clear right now and can be considered viable. I guess some points can be more clearly cut out, but from this point on it seems it can only get better. I'm willing to support it in D2.

As for who(whom?) to lynch, and if we're considering voting based on lurkage, we might want to wait for Andymeo's and OMGLOLZORZ' responses and if they're getting replaced or not. Also, there's a chance Senefen will get replaced.

I don't think much more can be said against anyone. I guess we'll have to wait some more.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby PossibleSloth » Wed Dec 16, 2009 4:57 pm UTC

I agree we should use "town" and "anti-town" for results and if the cop gets more detailed info, they can translate it into "town" or "anti-town". I like dedalus' suggestions about the cop claiming, particularly the random # deciding whether to pick town or not town and suggesting the cop not lie about an innocent player being guilty.

Regarding whoever's NK'd tonight, either a few of us could claim to have investigated them tomorrow or we can agree that, should the cop investigate them, the cop will lie about it. The odds are pretty small, but it's possible and it would make it pretty obvious who the cop is.

Here's how I'm understanding it:

1) Non-cops
Pick random # between 1 and 3.
If 1 or 2, pick someone you don't think is scum and say "I investigated X and they are town"
If 3, pick someone you think is scum and say "I investigated X and they are anti-town"

2) Cop(s)
Investigate someone during the night
Next day, say "I investigated X and they are Y" where Y is either "town" or "anti-town"
If you feel you must lie, please don't tell us an innocent person is guilty.

Objections?

Ninja'd:
@Weeks I hope at this point we're not going to vote based solely on lurkage.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Rhyme » Wed Dec 16, 2009 5:55 pm UTC

This mostly makes sense, though I disagree with this:
PossibleSloth wrote:1) Non-cops
Pick random # between 1 and 3.
If 1 or 2, pick someone you don't think is scum and say "I investigated X and they are town"
If 3, pick someone you think is scum and say "I investigated X and they are anti-town"

As far as I can see, it's better to pick who you investigate before rolling the three-sided die. A fair few people have openly told us who they believe to be town/anti town, and unless some of them are lying, that leaves a bit of a problem. If the cop investigates someone and gets a result they didn't expect, then announces it, but everyone else rolls before choosing and decides to go with this plan, it narrows down the possible cop even more. Additionally, if you roll and get 'Town' and so say you investigated someone you had no reason to be suspicious of, it makes it more obvious that you're just another townie. There's WIFOThem, of course, but I think it would be better to choose the target before the result.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby PossibleSloth » Wed Dec 16, 2009 9:04 pm UTC

Good call Rhyme. I think picking targets first might be better.

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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby dedalus » Wed Dec 16, 2009 10:03 pm UTC

Sorry, just a clarification thing on the dice roll; it should be 1-4. The cop will usually only be getting a guilty result half of the time.

Oh, and when you're picking your person, then include the dead person in your options. If anything, it's easy to fake the investigation.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Weeks » Wed Dec 16, 2009 10:57 pm UTC

Uhm, but if it's gonna be fifty fifty, why not make it 1-2 instead of 1-4?
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby dedalus » Thu Dec 17, 2009 2:33 am UTC

Sorry, my bad; the cop gets a guilty result 1/4 of the time. I'm not thinking straight.

We have 3 suspected anti-town (that will show up as anti town) out of a group of 12. 1/4. Well, 3/11 to be exact, but I'd doubt that will make much difference.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Avelion » Thu Dec 17, 2009 4:57 am UTC

I'd say we have three confirmed anti-town and one more very likely anti-town. Unless Capone is only after the mob, but that doesn't seem plausible considering he wants the money.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby Avelion » Thu Dec 17, 2009 4:58 am UTC

Unless of course Hymie is a godfather, in which case, your analysis is accurate.
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Re: The Legend of Mafia Manor: Newbie Round- Day 1

Postby MasterOfAll » Thu Dec 17, 2009 4:39 pm UTC

Okay, the deadline is getting close, so I think it is time we get serious about the lynch.

(Mods, can we get an update on exactly when the deadline will be imposed and also any update on any modprods that might have been sent out recently? Thanks!)

So, I really don't like lynching the most active players on D1, since that just makes the game go even slower on later days (and they also have said the most things which can be analyzed later in the game). Which means that I am most inclined to vote for one of the players with minimal posts even if I am not getting any strong scum feelings about them. Looking at the players that have just a few posts, the one that stood out to me just now is Senefen. In 6 posts since the confirmation I do not see a single post of substance, although there was a vote and unvote for Rhyme.

Of course, his most recent post was an apology for being busy and a statement that he might ask for a replacement. But, I think the best thing may be to make a replacement unnecessary by lynching him first, so . . .

Vote: Senefen
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(ditto for this one)


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