Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Over. Heroes Win!

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BigNose
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Location: Swine's Down, UK

Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby BigNose » Thu Jun 17, 2010 8:42 am UTC

The good news: We stil have the cop.
The bad news: We lynched a Townie, the scum NK'd the Secretary and now the cop has no back-up support.

I need to look back at the Lataro issue. I was too busy defending myself.
In the meantime, my customary Lurker list:
Spoiler:
tastelikecoke » Sat Jun 12, 2010 8:50 am UTC - NC
_infina_ » Sat Jun 12, 2010 9:26 am UTC - C
tastelikecoke » Sat Jun 12, 2010 9:57 am UTC - C
BigNose » Sat Jun 12, 2010 11:24 am UTC - C
tastelikecoke » Sat Jun 12, 2010 12:19 pm UTC - C
Lataro » Sat Jun 12, 2010 2:26 pm UTC - C
weiyaoli » Sat Jun 12, 2010 2:52 pm UTC - C
ElectricHaze » Sat Jun 12, 2010 3:26 pm UTC - NC
Lataro » Sat Jun 12, 2010 3:35 pm UTC - C
jayhsu » Sat Jun 12, 2010 3:41 pm UTC - C
Lataro » Sat Jun 12, 2010 3:48 pm UTC - C
tastelikecoke » Sat Jun 12, 2010 4:09 pm UTC - C
Aardvarki » Sat Jun 12, 2010 6:28 pm UTC - C
_infina_ » Sat Jun 12, 2010 8:59 pm UTC - C
ElectricHaze » Sat Jun 12, 2010 10:09 pm UTC - C
Vox Imperatoris » Sat Jun 12, 2010 10:48 pm UTC - C
PhoenixEnigma » Sat Jun 12, 2010 11:28 pm UTC -
Vox Imperatoris » Sun Jun 13, 2010 12:15 am UTC - C
_infina_ » Sun Jun 13, 2010 1:36 am UTC - C - Fos: BigNose
PhoenixEnigma » Sun Jun 13, 2010 1:53 am UTC - C
tastelikecoke » Sun Jun 13, 2010 3:51 am UTC - C
_infina_ » Sun Jun 13, 2010 3:59 am UTC - C
keeneal » Sun Jun 13, 2010 7:25 am UTC - C
Vox Imperatoris » Sun Jun 13, 2010 8:48 am UTC - C
BigNose » Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:39 am UTC - C
_infina_ » Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:58 am UTC - C - Vote: BigNose
tastelikecoke » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:18 am UTC - C
keeneal » Mon Jun 14, 2010 8:33 am UTC - C
tastelikecoke » Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:14 am UTC - C
BigNose » Mon Jun 14, 2010 10:21 am UTC - C - Fos: Keeneal, TLC
jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:27 pm UTC - C
weiyaoli » Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:38 pm UTC - C
jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:46 pm UTC - C
Lataro » Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:56 pm UTC - C - Fos: Jayhsu
BigNose » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:07 pm UTC - C
Lataro » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:18 pm UTC - C
jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:21 pm UTC - C
jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:25 pm UTC - C
jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:27 pm UTC - C
keeneal » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:29 pm UTC - C
Lataro » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:31 pm UTC - C - Vote: Jayhsu
jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:37 pm UTC - C
_infina_ » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:43 pm UTC - C
Lataro » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:03 pm UTC - C
keeneal » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:14 pm UTC - C
jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:19 pm UTC - NC
keeneal » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:21 pm UTC - NC
Aardvarki » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:06 pm UTC - C
ElectricHaze » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:22 pm UTC - C - Vote: Jayhsu
Vox Imperatoris » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:28 pm UTC - C - Vote: Lataro
Vox Imperatoris » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:30 pm UTC - C
ElectricHaze » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:39 pm UTC - C
Vox Imperatoris » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:52 pm UTC - C
jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:55 pm UTC - C
BigNose » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:57 pm UTC - C
jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 8:04 pm UTC - C
BigNose » Mon Jun 14, 2010 8:28 pm UTC - C
PhoenixEnigma » Mon Jun 14, 2010 8:39 pm UTC - C
Vox Imperatoris » Mon Jun 14, 2010 10:01 pm UTC - C - Unvote. Vote: Jayhsu
_infina_ » Tue Jun 15, 2010 1:17 am UTC - C
ElectricHaze » Tue Jun 15, 2010 1:46 am UTC - C
keeneal » Tue Jun 15, 2010 3:16 am UTC - C - Vote: Jayhsu
PhoenixEnigma » Tue Jun 15, 2010 3:22 am UTC - NC(?)
_infina_ » Tue Jun 15, 2010 4:43 am UTC - C
Lataro » Tue Jun 15, 2010 5:17 am UTC - C
Vox Imperatoris » Tue Jun 15, 2010 5:18 am UTC -C
PhoenixEnigma » Tue Jun 15, 2010 5:52 am UTC - C
Vox Imperatoris » Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:11 am UTC - C
Lataro » Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:16 am UTC - C - Unvote. Vote: Jayhsu
keeneal » Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:21 am UTC - C
Vox Imperatoris » Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:23 am UTC - C
PhoenixEnigma » Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:26 am UTC - C
keeneal » Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:26 am UTC - C
Vox Imperatoris » Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:27 am UTC - C
PhoenixEnigma » Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:30 am UTC - C
keeneal » Tue Jun 15, 2010 7:11 am UTC - C
_infina_ » Tue Jun 15, 2010 7:15 am UTC - C
tastelikecoke » Tue Jun 15, 2010 10:47 am UTC - C - Fos: _Infina_
BigNose » Tue Jun 15, 2010 11:41 am UTC - C
tastelikecoke » Tue Jun 15, 2010 11:58 am UTC - C
jayhsu » Tue Jun 15, 2010 2:01 pm UTC - C
ElectricHaze » Tue Jun 15, 2010 3:46 pm UTC - C
_infina_ » Tue Jun 15, 2010 7:39 pm UTC - C - Unvote. Vote: Jayhsu
jayhsu » Tue Jun 15, 2010 7:47 pm UTC - C
ElectricHaze » Tue Jun 15, 2010 7:50 pm UTC - C - Unvote.
Lataro » Tue Jun 15, 2010 8:50 pm UTC - C - Unvote.
ElectricHaze » Tue Jun 15, 2010 8:54 pm UTC - C - Vote: Jayhsu
Aardvarki » Tue Jun 15, 2010 8:55 pm UTC - C - Vote: Jayhsu
jayhsu » Tue Jun 15, 2010 8:57 pm UTC - C
weiyaoli » Tue Jun 15, 2010 8:57 pm UTC - NC
_infina_ » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:22 pm UTC - C - Unvote.
Lataro » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:24 pm UTC - C - Vote: Jayhsu
Lataro » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:25 pm UTC - C - Unvote.
Lataro » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:30 pm UTC - C
PhoenixEnigma » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:37 pm UTC - C - Vote: Jayhsu
ElectricHaze » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:38 pm UTC - NC
_infina_ » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:39 pm UTC - C - Vote: Jayhsu
Aardvarki » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:40 pm UTC - C
_infina_ » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:41 pm UTC - C
ElectricHaze » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:42 pm UTC - C
jayhsu » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:44 pm UTC - C
_infina_ » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:47 pm UTC - C
PhoenixEnigma » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:48 pm UTC - NC
Lataro » Tue Jun 15, 2010 10:53 pm UTC - NC
I considered Content, even if it was very light.

No one I can see would I consider a Lurker.
Weiyaoli has only 3 posts, 2 with short content, 1 with a RL reason.
Aardvarki has only 4 posts, 3 with content, 1 only vaguely do to with the game.

Giving him the benefit of doubt that RL is getting in the way, Weiyaoli escapes a Vote for Lurking, but I would like to see more content, if not more postings from you.

IGMEOY: Weiyaoli

Given the timings of the last few posts (9 in 20 minutes) before _Infina_'s hammer, I can believe it wasn't intended, but something isn't sitting right about his first D2 post.

D1 Final Votings:
Jayhsu - 6 (Vox Imp, Keeneal, E_H, Aardvarki, P_E, _Infina_)
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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tastelikecoke
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby tastelikecoke » Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:25 am UTC

because jayhsu is revealed to be town, _infina_ is off the hook now.
- You defended jayhsu and BN joined with your proposition. As a scum, it would be stupid to defend townie from lynch, unless you're a friendly scum, which is unlikely.
His vanilla claim would be stupid for scum to do, in fact it's a stupid thing for every role. but this claim pulled a perfect straw man for Lataro, and the other bandwagons.
"jester" bomb is definitely a useful pro-town, Although I agree a little bit with Lataro, it's not something to push through especially on the first day.

Lataro is a huge scumyard. First he argued that bomb is a jester. then jayhsu messed up and Lataro sweeped the perfect chance and argued that cop-cop investigation is stupid. Lastly, everyone had their suspicion on Lataro already, that includes Vox, Aardvarki, _infina_, and jayhsu. Maybe scums are bussing Lataro to get townie points, But in any case, Lataro is still very scummy.

Because PheonixEnigma's dead we now have One day of investigation. I recommend using it to Lataro, then lynching a scummy person at D2 precisely because of BN's advice about the GF because of the 1/3 chance it will be Mephisto, and Mephisto is the key on identifying GF.

A big huge yummy super special awesome FoS: Lataro

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Lataro
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Lataro » Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:49 pm UTC

First and foremost, it was not just me, but a number of people who thought Jayhsu was scummy because of his actions.

Second, if anyone else keeps twisting my damned words over the bomb, I'm going to rip their heads off though the internet. I've explained it so many times and so clearly that anyone who continues to do so is just being a jerk about it.

Third, the loss of Akara really puts town in a bind. Scum now has all the information and town just has the cop, whom as soon as he claims is dead. This has two effects on the game. First, as soon as he claims, he is likely dead the next night. Second, without scum claiming Akara with false results, and forcing them to claim the cop, it does make the situation rather cut and dry, if still unpleasant. The biggest change to our situation is if the cop finds scum, he has to claim. Odds are about 50/50 we lynch him that day, and if that happens, we are really in trouble. If this happens D3 we lose. We can not afford to lynch town today. If we lynch town and the cop claims D3, we are going to basically be stuck with a coin flip to determine who wins if we lynch the cop or the false claimed-cop.

Fourth, obviously, I am going to advocate to not lynch me today, as it would put us in said above situation. If the cop did cop me last night, he should definitely not claim, but does know the truth.
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."

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BigNose
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby BigNose » Thu Jun 17, 2010 2:09 pm UTC

My Lataro analysis:
Spoiler:
Lataro wrote:
Role Details:
Discerning Undead Stygian Doll (Discerning Bomb): A source of great frustration to red side players everywhere, you were shown the light after seeing the corruption of the once mighty Zakarum Priests. You have sworn to only use your deathly explosions for good now. A town player that, when lynched, kills the player who cast the hammer (generally the last vote, but more accurately the vote that caused the lynch, so if it's 3 to lynch and there are 2 votes on the Bomb, the person who places the third vote is the hammer, even if before the mod ends the day, a 4th player votes for them) if and only if that player is a Prime Evil (Mafia). Will not trigger if there is only a plurality or tie in the votes(eg. due to day being ended by a certain time and thus short of a majority vote for lynch). If Night Killed, the ability does not trigger.


I don't know how this jesterbomb is going to work out. The fact that he won't kill town is interesting, I just foresee scum not hammering votes on town for the duration of the game til this guy is dead.

This seems to be what the Lataro ping is all about, him changing the Discerning Bomb to calling it a JesterBomb.

Spoiler:
weiyaoli wrote:Discerning Undead Stygian Doll (Discerning Bomb) isn't a jester as far I can tell.... :/
Where did you get that from Lataro....?
Questioned on it.

Spoiler:
Lataro wrote:A jester in my mind is someone who wants to be lynched. I wouldn't be surprised if they had a win condition of half a win with town, half a win if lynched and kills scum or something like that. Any time you give a power on lynch, whoever has it generally wants to use it. I don't know how well this will work out trying to make a jester town aligned, but it should prove interesting to see what happens. As is, the only value for town he has, is that scum will be reluctant to be the last vote on someone, and thus we might glean something from voting records down the line. I'd be honestly surprised if the role actually got to use their power, just because it would be foolish of scum to hammer/be the last vote on someone with this guy in the mix.
Continues with the Jester theme. If we ignore the Jester bit, the rest is fine meta-wise.

Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:No, the discerning bomb is definitely pro town. Unless you're assuming this is a bastard game and the mods are lying, there is no reason not to think they are. It is strange that you are misstating what I believe is very clear in the rules. They don't explode on town hammer - how can you get more pro-town than that?
Called on his Jester tag again (by a now-known Townie) and its Townie-ness.

Spoiler:
Lataro wrote:You are missing my entire point. I am not saying they are "literally" anti-town.

I am saying that since they will desire to be lynched, their actual actions can POTENTIALLY BE anti-town, as they can/might/likely will muddy waters as they try to get lynched in hopes that they kill a hammering scum.

In my mind, and as I said, in my mind alone, I don't consider them town, due to that aspect of the role.

I fully realize they won't go boom on town, that isn't all at in any way, shape, or form my point. My point is that the act of desiring to be lynched, AT ALL does not serve the town well.
With Jayhsu crowing the DB's Townie-ness, Lataro continues to 'mistake' the DB's effectiveness /Townie-ness.

Spoiler:
ElectricHaze wrote:I'm back, and now that I've had a chance to read through everything properly I can add a few thoughts.
Alright, I'll start with the Stygian Doll... It's certainly an interesting role though I'm not sure we will see his power come into play, unless he can make it to late game. I don't think it is likely that we will see the Jester like play lataro is suggesting. Throwing up mud and wine early on will probably end up getting the doll lynched, but at this point with 8 vs 3 it would be all to easy for the mafia to avoid casting the hammer. So, that style of play would be really bad for the town. Hopefully the doll will play it smart and try and survive to mid-late game, where the numbers make it harder for the mafia to avoid dropping the hammer, before trying to get blown up.

E_H disagrees with Lataro's explanation of playing the DB as a JesterBomb. I would agree with all of E_H's content on this.

Spoiler:
Lataro wrote:
jayhsu wrote:
Vox Imperatoris wrote:I think Mephisto helps the scum a lot more than that. You're forgetting that the scum will also know who has already been cleared by the cop as innocent, so will avoid going after those people and thus be less likely to reveal themselves.


By copping themselves, they may throw off suspicion from themselves. If you believe Vox's analysis is right (that scum will avoid cop-cleared town), then this does not seem a terrible strategy. But as I said, we might not have enough time for the cop to try this strategy.


Obviously, once this is stated in thread for all to read, it becomes a completely invalid strategy. Another interpretation of asking for the cop to cop themselves N1 to be "cleared" by the mafia is, "I am scum and want to know who the cop is so we can kill him N2".

Big Ole Giant FOS on Jayhsu
This post pings me a little. The asking for the cop to cop themselves N1 comment is putting words into Jayhsu' mouth as Jayhsu actually said:
jayhsu wrote:What if the cop copped themselves?
@Silknor: Can the Cop cop themselves?
Nothing about N1. I admit, when Jayhsu came out with the strategy, I agreed with those who thought it was bad, but the fact that it was brought out and explored, showed up as possible wine in scums face and revenge is so sweet.

Spoiler:
Lataro wrote:I realize that the result would come back town. My point is saying that the cop should cop themselves N1, would then let the scum know since it was put out there in the thread that the N1 investigation target was the cop. Thus, they would know who the cop was. The cop copping himself only helps scum, I can't see a situation that exists where it does not put the cop in needless danger, triply so when the idea to do so is publicly discussed.

Since this would greatly benefit scum, I am saying that his desire to get the cop to cop himself N1 is a scum move.
This post pinged me the most though, until I re-read it 5 times. I thought he was talking about putting the cop result out on the Thread, rather than having put the strategy out on the Thread. He is still banging on about a N1 cop, instead of an 'any night' cop.

Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:I do not agree that it becomes an invalid strategy. A cop doesn't have to do it on N1. Do it anytime you think the mafia suspect you. It's wine for the mafia, which is hardly a bad thing. Unfortunately, as I've stated before, I'm not sure we will have time for the cop to try this. It may just be best for the cop to cop people and hope for the best.

Ninja: I really do not understand why you think the cop would have to cop themselves the first night. I suppose I did not make that clear in my initial posts, but I've addressed it above.

Furthermore, now that the mafia knows this is a strategy and that the cop won't do it because they know, the cop might do it to throw off the mafia. Or not. It's classic wine. Even better, if the cop does cop someone else, and the mafia think the cop copped themselves, they may NK the wrong person the next night. You seem to assume that only one outcome is possible in this entire scenario - that the cop will cop themselves tonight, without a doubt, and that the mafia will, also without a doubt, believe the cop performed that certain action. This is grossly erroneous.

Jayhsu states clearly that a N1 cop isn't necessary, but that it could be any night. Questions Lataro as to why he thinks the cop would have to cop themselves the first night.

Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:Rereading your post, with my emphasis. I hardly think I suggested that the cop SHOULD cop themselves N1. I was simply suggesting it was a possible course of action that, as stated in the previous post, may not have been apparent to newbies. Because that is the sort of game we are in. I think your 'interpretation' of my statements is possibly deliberate and does not mix well with your earlier comments about the jester not being pro-town.
Jayhsu comes to the same conclusion, it has taken me 3 days to do.

Spoiler:
Lataro wrote:Your suggesting of it, as stated by you yourself, creates wine for the mafia. Wine is never good for town, only for scum. I'm not saying that is the only possible course of events as you have heavily overstated, merely that your suggesting of it as a possible course of events is not very townie.

Ninja'ed:

Now you are trying to twist my well explained words again regarding the jester. I did not say he was aligned against the town, simply that his desire to get lynched could create a situation where he isn't acting in towns explicit best interests.

You're whole song and dance over this has been pinging me pretty hard, and I feel like there is enough at this time to justify a...
Vote: Jayhsu
Sentence 1 - OK. Sentence 2 - OK. Sentence 3 - If this wasn't a Newbie game, I'd agree. The fact that it is, (although Jayhsu didn't comment his post that way,) means that it's useful, both MetaGame-wise and Newbie Game-wise.

Spoiler:
Lataro wrote:Where have I ever said that I think he WILL act like that? I'm saying that since his power activates on being lynched, he will desire to be lynched rather than NK'ed. A townie who on some level or another wants to be lynched isn't guaranteed to act in towns best interest. We can only lynch a couple people before LYLO sets in. Even if he is lynched, there is no guarantee scum will hammer him. If this happens at LYLO where he tries to draw votes to use his power, we lose. As I said in my first or second post, we are now 8/3, if we lynch town, it'll be 6/3 tomorrow. If we mislynch again, we'll be at 4/3 on Day 3. LYLO sets in and if he tried to use his power by getting lynched, he could cost town the game on the spot if scum doesn't hammer him. Thus, that would be being town aligned, as I have never doubted, but not acting in towns best interest, as I have repeatedly stated numerous times in many different ways is my entire point.

Please stop trying to twist my words, it's getting tiresome.
Here is Lataro identifying that the Jester/DB will have a desire to be Lynched over NK and anyone wanting to be lynched is not in Town's best interest. Valid points, except we are dealing with a DB, not a JB. As someone else stated, the longer the DB stays in the game, the worse it gets for scum.

Spoiler:
ElectricHaze wrote:
Lataro wrote:Now you are trying to twist my well explained words again regarding the jester. I did not say he was aligned against the town, simply that his desire to get lynched could create a situation where he isn't acting in towns explicit best interests.


People seem to be jumping all over this. As I understand it, it seems like Lataro is using the term Jester because the ability is activated on lynch, thus it is similar to the Jester role that wins if he is lynched, and it is a more familiar term and easier to type than stygian doll. From what I see it started with Lataro was pointing out that if this role acted like a jester (trying to get themselves lynched and hoping to use their ability on scum) then it could cause problems for the town with wine and such. At no point do I see him ever saying he thought the Stygian doll, which I will simply call the bomb from now on cause it's easier and I think a better term than Jester, was scum aligned. The closest he ever came was saying it might be a 50-50 win condition with lynch + town win(sort of like the way the jester is set up in Bastard Mafia). While, I think his fears of Jester-like behavior are unlikely to come true since I think it would be obvious bad play, it is a newbie game so it is possible that the bomb plays it that way. Anyways I think the attack on Lataro is overly aggressive and lacking evidence, and is being perpetuated by Jayhsu who I'm already a little suspicious of for his suggestion that the cop investigate himself.
While this could be interpreted as supporting a scum-buddy, I think that it is valid as an analysis.

Then came the Vote / Unvote shenanigans.

Overall, I don't get the same Townie feel that I got with Jayhsu, but Lataro has caused a lot of wine to be spilled and because of those reasons:

Vote: Lataro
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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weiyaoli
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby weiyaoli » Thu Jun 17, 2010 2:20 pm UTC

I asked for town to not hammer so I could have a chance to read through the thread and comment first BN but I guess people went ahead anyway.

I'm most suspicious of lataro currently. He pushed for the jayhsu lynch and lead the votes on him. In hindsight now of course jayhsu wasn't trying to help scum by suggesting the cop cop himself and I still don't completely buy a vote based on that. However we still need to look at infina because he did unvote just before the lynch happened. Any reason for that?
And you thought I was crazy...

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BigNose
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby BigNose » Thu Jun 17, 2010 3:05 pm UTC

I can hardly say I was ninja'd by this post, but it definitely deserves a response and confirms my vote.
Lataro wrote:First and foremost, it was not just me, but a number of people who thought Jayhsu was scummy because of his actions.

Second, if anyone else keeps twisting my damned words over the bomb, I'm going to rip their heads off though the internet. I've explained it so many times and so clearly that anyone who continues to do so is just being a jerk about it.

Third, the loss of Akara really puts town in a bind. Scum now has all the information and town just has the cop, whom as soon as he claims is dead. This has two effects on the game. First, as soon as he claims, he is likely dead the next night. Second, without scum claiming Akara with false results, and forcing them to claim the cop, it does make the situation rather cut and dry, if still unpleasant. The biggest change to our situation is if the cop finds scum, he has to claim. Odds are about 50/50 we lynch him that day, and if that happens, we are really in trouble. If this happens D3 we lose. We can not afford to lynch town today. If we lynch town and the cop claims D3, we are going to basically be stuck with a coin flip to determine who wins if we lynch the cop or the false claimed-cop.

Fourth, obviously, I am going to advocate to not lynch me today, as it would put us in said above situation. If the cop did cop me last night, he should definitely not claim, but does know the truth.
WHAT! If the cop found scum last night and he claims, then we have a 50/50 chance of lynching the scum (they are bound to counter-claim), but the cop is dead in N2. So D3 starts with 5:2 with no cop, or 4:3 with no cop on a 50:50 chance! I think the better odds are that the cop doesn't claim today, even if he did find scum, and hopefully have another (successful?) attempt on N3. That way, we go into D3 with 4:3, but hopefully with a cop, or even better, 5:2 with a cop and 2 investigations. If the scum get the cop on N2, we would be back at 4:3 or 5:2 without a cop, but without investigation results.
To me, the questions are:
What are the odds to the cop investigating 1 or both scum on N1 & N2?
1 scum - Mid, 2 scum - Low
What are the odds of scum targeting the Cop and Secretary on N1 & N2?
They have 1/1, but what are the odds of 2/2?
I would say: LOW-MID and therefore the cop is likely to be still alive on D3.
So, it rests on us finding and lynching scum today for D3 to be 5:2 incl. cop, or 4:3 incl. cop.

Lataro's post is just adding more wine and is just wrong.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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ElectricHaze
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby ElectricHaze » Thu Jun 17, 2010 4:14 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:WHAT! If the cop found scum last night and he claims, then we have a 50/50 chance of lynching the scum (they are bound to counter-claim), but the cop is dead in N2. So D3 starts with 5:2 with no cop, or 4:3 with no cop on a 50:50 chance! I think the better odds are that the cop doesn't claim today, even if he did find scum, and hopefully have another (successful?) attempt on N3.


I respectfully disagree. If the cop finds scum and claims it would be rather difficult for the scum to effectively counter claim. Most likely the person the cop calls out as scum would have to counterclaim. This sort of counterclaim is really obvious and I can say from my experience in the last newbie game that it is really hard to convince people when making a counterclaim in this position. In this scenario I think it is much more than a 50/50 chance to lynch the scum. Other scenarios could exist for claiming, that would change the chance to make it more likely that the scum cop claim is believed, but I think in any of those scenarios, once the cop is proven (Either by getting killed or by being believed and proved right) it will give away more than 1 scum.

If the cop doesn't claim (on a scum result) then it's possible he gets killed before we can get that information. We lost the secretary night 1, either by sheer chance, or because he somehow gave himself away. The fact is there is a better chance of the cop getting killed tonight than there was last night. Especially, since the scum have his investigation and it may give them clues to who he might be.

I find your reasoning for the cop to sit on any confirmed scum results a bit off, and more than a little alarming.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby _infina_ » Thu Jun 17, 2010 4:40 pm UTC

Jayhsu(Brave Adventurer)
PE (Akara)
Town
Vox
TLC
weiyaoli
Aardvarki
keeneal
EH
BN
Lataro
Scum
Of Lataro I am 99% sure of scummyness, with BN, I am 95% sure. Of Vox I am 99% sure of town, and 70% sure of TLC. everyone else is at about 50/50.
I will move the dead to the outside on the end to which they belong with their role, as you can see above.
keeneal wrote:Rule Number One: Information is good for the town.

Quick Day-Ends limit information, and you just came out swinging hard for a short Day. You start with a very jittery defense of yourself, make up a contingency plan if people want to lynch you, and then cast a vote...on the first post of the day. Slow down.

FoS: _infina_ for pushing for a quick Day-End

If I was wanting a quick day-end, I would have said so, but it had been determined that either jayhsu or Lataro was scum on day one. jayhsu was town, so by following a logical procession, Lataro must be scum. As to my contingency plan, I want my wishes known in case I am put up for lynch. I accidentally stole hammer from Lataro, and he is probably displeased with me. Maybe even enough to lynch. My vote for Lataro will stand unless there are enough people to lynch BN.
weiyaoli wrote:I asked for town to not hammer so I could have a chance to read through the thread and comment first BN but I guess people went ahead anyway.

I'm most suspicious of lataro currently. He pushed for the jayhsu lynch and lead the votes on him. In hindsight now of course jayhsu wasn't trying to help scum by suggesting the cop cop himself and I still don't completely buy a vote based on that. However we still need to look at infina because he did unvote just before the lynch happened. Any reason for that?

After I unvoted, I went back in and typed my next post. I unvoted so that the hammer wouldn't happen while I was typing. All the post must have occured before I hit preview, as I do anytime I modify text, and I didn't notice being ninja'd, because I hadn't clicked on submit, and when I did click on submit, it did't stop me, saying that posts had been made.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Weeks » Thu Jun 17, 2010 6:28 pm UTC

Hello peeps. I am Silknor's left hand.

Votals:
2-Lataro (_infina_, BigNose)

5 to lynch.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Lataro » Thu Jun 17, 2010 6:29 pm UTC

Just saying before I'm lynched and come back town, that I really wouldn't be surprised if Infina was scum.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby BigNose » Thu Jun 17, 2010 6:50 pm UTC

ElectricHaze wrote:
BigNose wrote:WHAT! If the cop found scum last night and he claims, then we have a 50/50 chance of lynching the scum (they are bound to counter-claim), but the cop is dead in N2. So D3 starts with 5:2 with no cop, or 4:3 with no cop on a 50:50 chance! I think the better odds are that the cop doesn't claim today, even if he did find scum, and hopefully have another (successful?) attempt on N3.


I respectfully disagree. If the cop finds scum and claims it would be rather difficult for the scum to effectively counter claim. Most likely the person the cop calls out as scum would have to counterclaim. This sort of counterclaim is really obvious and I can say from my experience in the last newbie game that it is really hard to convince people when making a counterclaim in this position. In this scenario I think it is much more than a 50/50 chance to lynch the scum. Other scenarios could exist for claiming, that would change the chance to make it more likely that the scum cop claim is believed, but I think in any of those scenarios, once the cop is proven (Either by getting killed or by being believed and proved right) it will give away more than 1 scum.

If the cop doesn't claim (on a scum result) then it's possible he gets killed before we can get that information. We lost the secretary night 1, either by sheer chance, or because he somehow gave himself away. The fact is there is a better chance of the cop getting killed tonight than there was last night. Especially, since the scum have his investigation and it may give them clues to who he might be.

I find your reasoning for the cop to sit on any confirmed scum results a bit off, and more than a little alarming.
FoS: BigNose

You can take number 2 in my most suspicious people right behind Lataro.


Can we just clarify on this please?

If the cop found scum on N1, he is to claim now.
If there is a counter-claim, we don't have a 50/50 chance, more 60/40 or even 75/25 in believing the first claim.
Thus we lynch 1 scum in D2 and lose the cop N2, we end up with 5 vs 2 with no cop. - Not the best option, but certainly second best.
If we include the DB in this, then scum have only N3 to get him and may get caught on D3 if that lynch occurs, or even better, he is still alive D4.
If we lynch the cop (by mistake) D2, we can then lynch the identified scum D3, but that does give scum 2 x NK's of N2 & N3 (2 chances at the DB), leaving us at D4 with 3 vs 2 with no cop and possibly no DB. - Not brilliant, but we have an advantage still.

I feel like a Jayhsu moment here, but I'd rather have a full understanding out in the open, so that all Town can see, so that if/when we come to some form of agreement on the way forward, if there is any hint of deviation, then we have a potential scum.

PS It was Lataro's 50/50 I didn't like, tied in with the Cop claim. If you consider it is nearer 75/25, that makes me a whole lot happier, although I still feel Lataro is spreading wine.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Aardvarki » Thu Jun 17, 2010 7:04 pm UTC

_infina_, I more or less agree with your scum continuum. I'm also in favor of a Lataro lynch, as I'm quite convinced one of Jay/Lataro had to be scum from the way they fought, and if Jay wasn't scum, Lataro must be.

That said, I agree with Keeneal that slower is better. With five votes to lynch and two already down on Lataro, I am not laying my vote down until we've had all the discussion we need to have.

However, what I don't like is you stealing the hammer and giving an "oops, I didn't realize" explanation, when yesterday after the hammer you explicitly said "I do things my the way I do for a reason." (I'm aware that was describing your unvote moreso than your hammer, but I think it still fits rather well here) To me, that feels like scum hoping to use an "I hammered someone, I must not be scum" argument. Between that and the way you jumped to vote today, IGMEOY: _infina_
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Lataro » Thu Jun 17, 2010 7:06 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:
ElectricHaze wrote:
BigNose wrote:WHAT! If the cop found scum last night and he claims, then we have a 50/50 chance of lynching the scum (they are bound to counter-claim), but the cop is dead in N2. So D3 starts with 5:2 with no cop, or 4:3 with no cop on a 50:50 chance! I think the better odds are that the cop doesn't claim today, even if he did find scum, and hopefully have another (successful?) attempt on N3.


I respectfully disagree. If the cop finds scum and claims it would be rather difficult for the scum to effectively counter claim. Most likely the person the cop calls out as scum would have to counterclaim. This sort of counterclaim is really obvious and I can say from my experience in the last newbie game that it is really hard to convince people when making a counterclaim in this position. In this scenario I think it is much more than a 50/50 chance to lynch the scum. Other scenarios could exist for claiming, that would change the chance to make it more likely that the scum cop claim is believed, but I think in any of those scenarios, once the cop is proven (Either by getting killed or by being believed and proved right) it will give away more than 1 scum.

If the cop doesn't claim (on a scum result) then it's possible he gets killed before we can get that information. We lost the secretary night 1, either by sheer chance, or because he somehow gave himself away. The fact is there is a better chance of the cop getting killed tonight than there was last night. Especially, since the scum have his investigation and it may give them clues to who he might be.

I find your reasoning for the cop to sit on any confirmed scum results a bit off, and more than a little alarming.
FoS: BigNose

You can take number 2 in my most suspicious people right behind Lataro.


Can we just clarify on this please?

If the cop found scum on N1, he is to claim now.
If there is a counter-claim, we don't have a 50/50 chance, more 60/40 or even 75/25 in believing the first claim.
Thus we lynch 1 scum in D2 and lose the cop N2, we end up with 5 vs 2 with no cop. - Not the best option, but certainly second best.
If we include the DB in this, then scum have only N3 to get him and may get caught on D3 if that lynch occurs, or even better, he is still alive D4.
If we lynch the cop (by mistake) D2, we can then lynch the identified scum D3, but that does give scum 2 x NK's of N2 & N3 (2 chances at the DB), leaving us at D4 with 3 vs 2 with no cop and possibly no DB. - Not brilliant, but we have an advantage still.

I feel like a Jayhsu moment here, but I'd rather have a full understanding out in the open, so that all Town can see, so that if/when we come to some form of agreement on the way forward, if there is any hint of deviation, then we have a potential scum.

PS It was Lataro's 50/50 I didn't like, tied in with the Cop claim. If you consider it is nearer 75/25, that makes me a whole lot happier, although I still feel Lataro is spreading wine.



For town's sake, the cop better hit scum tomorrow, and better claim first, because all your post about this 75/25 nonsense is just emboldening the scum the claim first at LYLO tomorrow. They'll be glad to know they can count on you to trust them. >.>

Vote: BigNose

Not that I think it'll save me, but why not at this point. His 75/25 numbers out of thin air, is completely bogus. Just because a number makes you happy, doesn't mean it's realistic in the least bit.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby _infina_ » Thu Jun 17, 2010 7:24 pm UTC

I ain't scum.
I could claim vanilla, but no one would believe that.
I could claim bomb, but that wouldn't do anything for me.
I could claim cop, but that would just waste an investigation.
I could claim mafia, but who would do that.
I guess all I can do is claim pro-town, and hope that all turns out well.
For the two I suspect are mafia, I have a guess as to what their roles are. Of course the two I think are most likely scum have started attacking each other. I would love to see BN lynched and for my suspicions to be right at the end of the day, but it is more likely we will lynch Lataro.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Aardvarki » Thu Jun 17, 2010 7:27 pm UTC

We're currently at 6/3. A correct lynch tonight will put us at 5/2 with an 83% chance of our cop still being alive (assuming random NK; obviously if there are tells, the odds are worse). If our cop can get off maybe two more investigations, or if we can get rid of Mephisto, I think we stand a good chance of winning.

Also, I am with EH on his disapproval of BN's suggested cop strategy. A cop with a positive result should definitely claim, unless the target is already en route to being lynched. The only reason you would ever want to lay low as a cop with a positive result is if you are able to drop breadcrumbs that can be discovered after you die. Unfortunately, with Mephisto alive, a cop dropping breadcrumbs will be obvious to the scum. If Mephisto is dead and the cop has a positive result, it must be on Diablo (and if Diablo and Mephisto are both dead, the cop is useless), so even if Mephisto is dead in this game, the cop should still definitely claim if they have a positive result.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby ElectricHaze » Thu Jun 17, 2010 8:09 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:PS It was Lataro's 50/50 I didn't like, tied in with the Cop claim. If you consider it is nearer 75/25, that makes me a whole lot happier, although I still feel Lataro is spreading wine.


Sorry, but you ran with the 50/50, if lataro mentioned it too than I think he is wrong on the possibility of a mislynch as well. The main point of what I was saying is that saying the cop should sit on a scum result and wait until he has two scum results to step forward. Best case: We get 2 scum from the cop tomorrow, and have a win pretty much locked up. The more likely case down this road is that the cop dies while looking for the last scum he can confirm(Note I'm assuming 1 scum found because this is what the argument is about, whether or not the cop should come forward with that result). The cop will have a 1/6 chance to hit the scum(9 players minus the cop, the lynch victim and the scum he already found), the scum will have a 1/5 chance of hitting the cop(9 players minus 3 scum, and the lynch victim for that night). That assumes a mislynch, if town lynches a scum then there is a 1/3 chance of hitting the godfather, in which case chances going into night 2 are 1/6 and 1/6, and there is a 1/3 chance to hit the scum the cop hasn't identified making the whole effort pointless, and possibly losing the info on the other scum if the cop is NKed. and there is a chance the town lynches the scum the cop already knew about.

If the cop claims when he has found scum (btw he should certainly wait until later in the day because if the town jumps on the person he investigated he might not have to lift a finger and can concentrate on finding the next scum) the best case scenario is we lynch a scum and lose the cop. This clears up any wine and mud that scum player spread or would have spread if he was left alive. Also, lynching a scum player lets us analyze other players with an eye on who was following that scum around or who seemed to be distancing themeselves from them or whatever. Bottom line is that lynching a scum provides more help to the town than just lowering the scum by 1, it lowers the level of wine and it gives the town more information to base decisions on. More information is always good for the town. Worst case is we mislynch the cop and then lynch a scum. As I have stated before I believe it would be very difficult for the scum to pull off a counterclaim, at least not without giving more than one of themselves away.

I've sort of lost track of this a couple of times because of work interrupting me, but basically I think if the cop has a scum result he should post it before the day ends I think that information is to valuable to risk losing to a NK. That is where I think your logic is faulty BN, that you would suggest the cop sit on that info, and that you would attack someone for suggesting that the cop out a scum (Even if it is Lataro you're attacking).

Ninja'd by a lot of stuff:
A. Seriously _infina_... no one is really targeting you, and I believe you saw how well claiming vanilla town out of the blue goes over... Either you are playing a really dumb town or a really dumb scum, either way I can't see that move as anything, but dumb.

B. Well if Lataro is targeting BN I'm not sure what to think anymore... I was pretty convinced they were both scum... Now it looks like I have to decide between the two of them, because I have trouble believing they are both scum, unless Lataro is Diablo in which case BN looks like he is Busing him here. Needs more analysis.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby BigNose » Thu Jun 17, 2010 8:21 pm UTC

Lataro"The biggest change to our situation is if the cop finds scum, he has to claim. Odds are about 50/50 we lynch him that day, and if that happens, we are really in trouble.[/quote]You started with the 50/50 with defining it as a cop lynch. Inversely, that also means 50/50 on the scum lynch. Is that a slip-up?

[quote="ElectricHaze"If the cop finds scum and claims it would be rather difficult for the scum to effectively counter claim. Most likely the person the cop calls out as scum would have to counterclaim. This sort of counterclaim is really obvious and I can say from my experience in the last newbie game that it is really hard to convince people when making a counterclaim in this position.[/quote]This tells me that 50/50 isn't right and that it should be better in favour of the cop claim on finding scum.

[quote="BigNose wrote:
Can we just clarify on this please?

If the cop found scum on N1, he is to claim now.
If there is a counter-claim, we don't have a 50/50 chance, more 60/40 or even 75/25 in believing the first claim.
Here, I quite deliberately ask for clarity. If EH (or another) was to come back with a 60/40 split, then I would have been reluctant to change my view. If they come back as 75/25, then I would've bowed to their better understanding. EH suggests that it could be higher ratio which is even better and although laying out a strategy like this is open for scum to peruse, even they have to provide Town good guidance, or be identified as scum.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby BigNose » Thu Jun 17, 2010 8:25 pm UTC

EBWOP: Got distracted by EH's ninja.

Lataro wrote:The biggest change to our situation is if the cop finds scum, he has to claim. Odds are about 50/50 we lynch him that day, and if that happens, we are really in trouble.
You started with the 50/50 with defining it as a cop lynch. Inversely, that also means 50/50 on the scum lynch. Is that a slip-up?

ElectricHaze wrote:If the cop finds scum and claims it would be rather difficult for the scum to effectively counter claim. Most likely the person the cop calls out as scum would have to counterclaim. This sort of counterclaim is really obvious and I can say from my experience in the last newbie game that it is really hard to convince people when making a counterclaim in this position.
This tells me that 50/50 isn't right and that it should be better in favour of the cop claim on finding scum.

BigNose wrote:Can we just clarify on this please?

If the cop found scum on N1, he is to claim now.
If there is a counter-claim, we don't have a 50/50 chance, more 60/40 or even 75/25 in believing the first claim.


Here, I quite deliberately ask for clarity. If EH (or another) was to come back with a 60/40 split, then I would have been reluctant to change my view. If they come back as 75/25, then I would've bowed to their better understanding. EH suggests that it could be higher ratio which is even better and although laying out a strategy like this is open for scum to peruse, even they have to provide Town good guidance, or be identified as scum.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby BigNose » Thu Jun 17, 2010 8:31 pm UTC

EBWOP2:

PS Cop, do not claim until we have this sorted.
And to aid that:
Unvote
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby ElectricHaze » Thu Jun 17, 2010 8:53 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:If EH (or another) was to come back with a 60/40 split, then I would have been reluctant to change my view. If they come back as 75/25, then I would've bowed to their better understanding. EH suggests that it could be higher ratio which is even better and although laying out a strategy like this is open for scum to peruse, even they have to provide Town good guidance, or be identified as scum.


It's impossible to come up with hard numbers like that, as there is no data other than one of the claimants will be the cop and the other will be a scum. This is where 50/50 comes into play. I was simply trying to state that it isn't pure numbers here and you have to look at the situations in which we would have 2 cop claims. The most likely being that the cop claims because he finds scum. After that the person he names would probably either have to take their lynch like a good boy or try to counter-claim. In my opinion it just isn't likely that a counter claim in that situation would sway anyone. That is why I say that it is a greater than 50/50 that we believe the cop because circumstance will influence the decision it is not a pure coin flip. It is impossible to give a solid percentage chance of one thing or another happening. I was just saying that in what I see as the most likely scenarios for a claim counterclaim I think the cop is going to be more likely to be believed.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Aardvarki » Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:41 pm UTC

ElectricHaze wrote:
BigNose wrote:If EH (or another) was to come back with a 60/40 split, then I would have been reluctant to change my view. If they come back as 75/25, then I would've bowed to their better understanding. EH suggests that it could be higher ratio which is even better and although laying out a strategy like this is open for scum to peruse, even they have to provide Town good guidance, or be identified as scum.


It's impossible to come up with hard numbers like that, as there is no data other than one of the claimants will be the cop and the other will be a scum. This is where 50/50 comes into play. I was simply trying to state that it isn't pure numbers here and you have to look at the situations in which we would have 2 cop claims. The most likely being that the cop claims because he finds scum. After that the person he names would probably either have to take their lynch like a good boy or try to counter-claim. In my opinion it just isn't likely that a counter claim in that situation would sway anyone. That is why I say that it is a greater than 50/50 that we believe the cop because circumstance will influence the decision it is not a pure coin flip. It is impossible to give a solid percentage chance of one thing or another happening. I was just saying that in what I see as the most likely scenarios for a claim counterclaim I think the cop is going to be more likely to be believed.

You're more or less right (you would be completely right if it weren't for this game's particular setup), but what you're forgetting is that with Mephisto around, the scum will know that they've been caught at exactly the same time the cop knows he's found scum, which means that the scum can counter-claim before the cop even signs on, if they're quick about it. Therefore, your "cop claims because he finds scum. After that the person he names would probably either have to take their lynch/or try to counter-claim" bit isn't accurate. What that boils down to is that we can't just believe the first cop claim we see, we actually have to put some real thought into it.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Vox Imperatoris » Fri Jun 18, 2010 12:59 am UTC

All this talk about percentages is getting out of hand. Electric Haze is correct that it is not a simple probability as to whether we lynch the cop or the scum when we have a claim. We are much more likely to lynch the scum because he will have the power to actually back up his behavior with appropriate justifications. The scum will not be able to do this, since he has not been acting with the expectation that he might have to back up a cop claim.

Also, I disagree with Aardvarki that we cannot trust the first claim more than the second. It's true that it's not iron-clad, but think about it: if the cop claims after finding scum, all that that scum can do is say the exact opposite, which is not going to look very convincing. That is to say, it's much more likely that the cop will accuse scum than that the scum will take a chance and false-claim without any provocation and also happen to accuse the cop when he does this. As in, the second situation is just not going to happen. Now, if we come to a situation where the "cop" accuses someone, only to be counter-claimed by a cop who is not that person, it's much more likely that the second guy is the one we should believe because he's not saving his own hide by making the claim. Scum buddies would be extremely foolish to do this for one another.

For clarity, examples of the two situations:
Situation I: Believe Player 1
Player 1: I'm the cop; I investigated and found that Player 2 is scum.
Player 2: Nuh uh! I'm the cop and he's scum!

Situation II: Believe Player 3
Player 1: I'm the cop; I investigated and found that Player 2 is scum.
Player 2: I'm innocent!
Player 3: I'm the real cop. Player 1 is scum!

As for Lataro, I, along with several other people, had pretty much decided yesterday that we should lynch him if jayhsu happened to come up town. While I'm admittedly surprised that he's not scum, I still stand by my earlier statements to the effect that he ramped up the attack on jayhsu even before the most damning evidence (his vanilla claim) came up. Although I'm not calling for an immediate lynch, I don't think we should let him second-guess us. Therefore, I'm going to go ahead and vote for him, as I don't think that will be changing. _infina_ is also somewhat suspicious for his actions: I propose we allow him to cast down the hammer again, this time on Lataro, just in case all his bomb-jester talk is caused by his being the bomb himself. That means he should go ahead and unvote, so that he can re-vote later.

Vote: Lataro

_infina_, please unvote and cast the hammer later.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Lataro » Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:10 am UTC

Vox Imperatoris wrote:All this talk about percentages is getting out of hand. Electric Haze is correct that it is not a simple probability as to whether we lynch the cop or the scum when we have a claim. We are much more likely to lynch the scum because he will have the power to actually back up his behavior with appropriate justifications. The scum will not be able to do this, since he has not been acting with the expectation that he might have to back up a cop claim.

Also, I disagree with Aardvarki that we cannot trust the first claim more than the second. It's true that it's not iron-clad, but think about it: if the cop claims after finding scum, all that that scum can do is say the exact opposite, which is not going to look very convincing. That is to say, it's much more likely that the cop will accuse scum than that the scum will take a chance and false-claim without any provocation and also happen to accuse the cop when he does this. As in, the second situation is just not going to happen. Now, if we come to a situation where the "cop" accuses someone, only to be counter-claimed by a cop who is not that person, it's much more likely that the second guy is the one we should believe because he's not saving his own hide by making the claim. Scum buddies would be extremely foolish to do this for one another.

For clarity, examples of the two situations:
Situation I: Believe Player 1
Player 1: I'm the cop; I investigated and found that Player 2 is scum.
Player 2: Nuh uh! I'm the cop and he's scum!

Situation II: Believe Player 3
Player 1: I'm the cop; I investigated and found that Player 2 is scum.
Player 2: I'm innocent!
Player 3: I'm the real cop. Player 1 is scum!

As for Lataro, I, along with several other people, had pretty much decided yesterday that we should lynch him if jayhsu happened to come up town. While I'm admittedly surprised that he's not scum, I still stand by my earlier statements to the effect that he ramped up the attack on jayhsu even before the most damning evidence (his vanilla claim) came up. Although I'm not calling for an immediate lynch, I don't think we should let him second-guess us. Therefore, I'm going to go ahead and vote for him, as I don't think that will be changing. _infina_ is also somewhat suspicious for his actions: I propose we allow him to cast down the hammer again, this time on Lataro, just in case all his bomb-jester talk is caused by his being the bomb himself. That means he should go ahead and unvote, so that he can re-vote later.

Vote: Lataro

_infina_, please unvote and cast the hammer later.


I'm not gonna play the same dog and pony show as Jayhsu did yesterday. I am not the bomb. I am just plain ole vanilla. Just remember who wanted to lynch me when I come back town guys.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Vox Imperatoris » Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:24 am UTC

Lataro wrote:I'm not gonna play the same dog and pony show as Jayhsu did yesterday. I am not the bomb. I am just plain ole vanilla. Just remember who wanted to lynch me when I come back town guys.


Sorry, but I can't believe you. It is possible that you could be town, but right now you're the best option to lynch, I think.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby ElectricHaze » Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:56 am UTC

Honestly, I think there is just enough evidence for a BN lynch as there is lataro, and I'm fine with either so I'm going to go ahead and...
Vote: lataro
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Lataro » Fri Jun 18, 2010 2:03 am UTC

Yep, it's "equal" all right, just ripe for a scum wagon.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Vox Imperatoris » Fri Jun 18, 2010 2:04 am UTC

ElectricHaze wrote:Honestly, I think there is just enough evidence for a BN lynch as there is lataro, and I'm fine with either so I'm going to go ahead and...
Vote: lataro


I have an idea to test the three most suspicious people:
1. Lynch Lataro
2. Have _infina_ cast the hammer
3. Tell the Cop investigates Big Nose

That way, in addition to the other parts of the plan which I explained earlier, the cop can tell us Tomorrow if Big Nose is scum, or if he remains silent we can assume that Big Nose is town, thus either publicly confirming a townie or catching a scum. Since the scum have no blocking powers, they can't really do anything about a town-sponsored investigation.
Nec audiendi qui solent dicere, vox populi, vox Dei, quum tumultuositas vulgi semper insaniae proxima sit.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby ElectricHaze » Fri Jun 18, 2010 3:14 am UTC

Vox Imperatoris wrote:I have an idea to test the three most suspicious people:
1. Lynch Lataro
2. Have _infina_ cast the hammer
3. Tell the Cop investigates Big Nose


Not bad. To be honest I would have BN hammer and investigate infina, but I suppose it would work out either way.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby _infina_ » Fri Jun 18, 2010 3:59 am UTC

Something has been bugging me, and I think I know what it is now. I was so focused on wanting to find Mephisto, that when I looked at BN's posts, I thought he was downplaying Mephisto, but now that I look back on it, it feels more as if he is bragging about the godfather's powers. I shall return to my D1 roots, as I should have done at the beginning of day two at the end of this post.
Vox Imperatoris wrote:...

I have an idea to test the three most suspicious people:
1. Lynch Lataro
2. Have _infina_ cast the hammer
3. Tell the Cop investigates Big Nose

That way, in addition to the other parts of the plan which I explained earlier, the cop can tell us Tomorrow if Big Nose is scum, or if he remains silent we can assume that Big Nose is town, thus either publicly confirming a townie or catching a scum. Since the scum have no blocking powers, they can't really do anything about a town-sponsored investigation.

How about this?
1. Lynch BN
2. I cast hammer again
3. Cop Lataro

No, wait. Even better, we cop Vox or Aardvarki to make sure my scumdar is working better than my previous game, if I am right and we hit scum with BN.

Unvote:Lataro
Vote:BN
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby ElectricHaze » Fri Jun 18, 2010 4:31 am UTC

Infina. I like the cut of your jib. I honestly think I'm more comfortable with a BN lynch. There has been no resistance to a Lataro lynch at all. I feel like we are either walking into a trap to many people just seem to take for granted that Lataro is scum since Jay was not. I still think it's likely, though I just think BN is a slightly better option. If Lataro is scum then the cop can confirm it 2morrow assuming he isn't NKed, but the evidence on Lataro is all centered around the fact that he pointed out that Jay looked scummy. Whereas BN has looked off this whole time. I went back and counted btw, 4 of his first 6 or 7 posts he was talking about the godfather, and I agree it does look a bit like trumping up the role and perhaps trying to distance himself from it a bit?

Taking that into account I noticed something else. If BN is scum specifically the GF as it seems he might be then Vox's plan is really damaging to the town. If we lataro is a mislynch and we cop the GF the town could be in a bad way going into day 3, As we will have little information, since we can assume the cop hit a townie last night, and what's worse if BN is the GF rather than one of the other 2 scums we have a scum who looks like a confirmed townie.

Of course the other possiblility is that this is a full on scum bus job. If that is the case I'd like to try and get a cop confirmation on Lataro and lynch BN instead since he looks just as scummy to me.

I'll
Unvote
Until I can see what other people think.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Vox Imperatoris » Fri Jun 18, 2010 4:54 am UTC

ElectricHaze wrote:Taking that into account I noticed something else. If BN is scum specifically the GF as it seems he might be then Vox's plan is really damaging to the town. If we lataro is a mislynch and we cop the GF the town could be in a bad way going into day 3, As we will have little information, since we can assume the cop hit a townie last night, and what's worse if BN is the GF rather than one of the other 2 scums we have a scum who looks like a confirmed townie.


You're right. I wasn't thinking about the Godfather when I made my plan. Maybe have the cop investigate someone else, since if Big Nose does turn out to be scum, it seems most likely that he is the Godfather. I think _infina_ would be the best choice, at least if we're going to lynch Lataro. If not, then investigate Lataro, I suppose. Another possibility is for the cop to go after a relative lurker, such as keeneal, TLC, or weiyaoli, since we can detect people who post frequently by the content of their posts, while it makes no difference for the cop. You and _infina_ make a pretty good case against Big Nose, and right now I'd say he's probably the second-most suspicious, but I still don't think we should let Lataro off the hook. If we do, I think we'd be second-guessing ourselves. That is to say, we basically set up Lataro and jayhsu as one or other other being scum, and now we've lynched the wrong one and are letting the other go.

I wouldn't be opposed to a Big Nose lynch if that's what other people really want, though.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Lataro » Fri Jun 18, 2010 5:01 am UTC

I'd say investigate Vox. He is the one who really pushed the whole, "Lataro or Jayhsu is scum" fictional scenario, as if it was confirmed to be from on high heavens.

Was I aggressive? Yes.

Unreasonably so? I don't think so.

Vox sure is painting it in such a light though, and was more than eager to lynch Jayhsu yesterday and was happy to point out that I should be lynched today if Jayhsu was town. Not a bad plan for scum to try and steer the game to LYLO D3.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby ElectricHaze » Fri Jun 18, 2010 5:12 am UTC

Lataro wrote:I'd say investigate Vox. He is the one who really pushed the whole, "Lataro or Jayhsu is scum" fictional scenario, as if it was confirmed to be from on high heavens.


If this is the case I like the lynch BN investigate you plan even more. Could you find the quotes there where he pushes that scenario?
Lataro wrote:Was I aggressive? Yes

Absolutely
Lataro wrote:Unreasonably so? I don't think so.

Almost, but I've read enough of your games to know that you tend to be well on the aggressive side of the chart.

In any case, I like the lynch BN plan more than the lynch lataro plan. I don't think it's letting him free, I think lynching BN, who in my eyes, has acted scummier and scummier and who could be the GF, and seeing if we can't get a cop on Lataro to put a rest to the suspicions there, is the safer option for the town.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Lataro » Fri Jun 18, 2010 5:23 am UTC

Vox Imperatoris wrote:
ElectricHaze wrote:
Vox Imperatoris wrote:That's a favorite tactic of the mafia: seizing upon some silly error that players make, like calling for no lynch, and turning that into an ironclad case that the player who made the mistake is scum.

You seem to be condemning Lataro for this, but at the same time ignoring that Jayshu seemed to be doing exactly that with his constant attack on Lataro for comparing the bomb role to the Jester role. In terms of "silly errors" calling for the cop to investigate himself, which would waste an investigation and likely get our cop killed, is a big one.


It's true, jayhsu didn't exactly come off as suspicion-less to me, and I considered voting for him, but I just got more of a bad feeling from Lataro. I think it's very likely that one of the two is scum, and I'm afraid that if we lynch jayhsu we'll be playing into Lataro's hands by going for a lynch he pretty much engineered by himself. It's true that jayhsu's suggestion is bad, but it's precisely because it's so stupid that I doubt a member of the mafia would suggest it unless he seriously thought that the town would go through with it without thinking. I mean, what's more likely: the mafia come up with a perfect suggestion with which to fool the town into giving away the cop, only to be foiled by Lataro, or a misguided townie tries to come up with a suggestion to protect the cop, which is jumped upon by mafia looking for an easy lynch?


Vox Imperatoris wrote:Okay, that's the last straw: I hate to be a vote-hopper, but jayhsu is making it pretty much impossible not to be. With that "claim" added into the rest of his actions during the game, he's got to either be scum or be playing very poorly. It's one thing to make an anti-town mistake regarding a novel mechanic that one isn't expected to be familiar with, but to both make an anti-town mistake and then follow it up with an action that everyone knows does nothing to help the town (claiming vanilla townie) crosses the line. Since this is a newbie game, let me explain why claiming vanilla is bad: even if we could trust jayhsu and take his word that he is a townie as proven fact, it narrows down targets for the mafia in their hunt for the cop, boosting their odds of a successful hit. Thus, as jayhsu has put a big target on himself saying "I'm not the cop", the mafia's odds of killing the cop go up from 1/8 to 1/7. Of course, if jayhsu is mafia, then that's the only claim he could make. I remain a bit suspicious of Lataro (especially if jayhsu happens to turn out town), but I'm going to have to change my vote for now.

Unvote: Lataro
Vote: jayhsu


Are the two posts I'm specifically referencing for that comment. I may of been over dramatic, but the case Vox is making is clear in those posts. The very first thing Vox did was try and jump a vote on me (before those posts) then switched when the bandwagon seemed to go the other way. D2 first thing Vox does is try and make this same case again and tries to run a bandwagon again.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby BigNose » Fri Jun 18, 2010 9:45 am UTC

My GF posts!

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61295#p2192531
In response to _Infina_'s initial post for other people thoughts.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61295#p2193342
My response to _Infina_'s attack post.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61295#p2194323
My point-by-point response to multiple people.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61295&start=40#p2194750
Questioning Jayhsu' Cop-the-cop strategy. No GF mentioned.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61295&start=40#p2194955
Extending Jayhsu' 'strategy' by including copping a Townie/GF.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61295&start=40#p2194989
Initial attack on Jayhsu for his Townie claim. No GF mentioned.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61295&start=80#p2195801
Another bit of defence from _Infina_ and then my defence of Jayhsu.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61295&start=120#p2198242
D2 lurker list.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61295&start=120#p2198652
My analysis of Lataro and vote.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61295&start=120#p2198734
I question Lataro's 50/50 on a cop claim.

etc. . . .


RE: 4 of 6 or 7 GF posts by E_H
This is a complete stitch-up.
In 2 posts I talk about the GF as a stand-alone. Infina's inital request for general response and finalising Jayhsu' strategy.
3 posts are a response to various people, which question me bringing up the GF
2 posts are responding to Jayhsu's 'strange' posts.

I don't whether to vote on _Infina_ for keep on pressing because he got a (asked-for) response that didn't fit-in with his view of the game operation, or E_H for trying to make me look worse than it really is.



RE: 50/50, 60/40, 75/25
Atleast 2 (E_H and Vox Imp) have stated that the first cop claim is likely to be believed, but only if the target gets lynched and turns out Scum. I was trying to find out how much credence you would apply to that cop claim.
If the (best) strategy is that the cop claims and the target is lynched to help determine the cops' claim, then that translates into 80/20 or 90/10. Enough to FTC, but still a bit of suspicion.
Ofcourse, these figures have to be adjusted on a game-by-game basis, but using percentages gives me a more comfortable idea of how people think when they say such things.

The rest of the 60/40, 75/25 is just asking for some form of guidance.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby Aardvarki » Fri Jun 18, 2010 12:58 pm UTC

Vox Imperatoris wrote:For clarity, examples of the two situations:
Situation I: Believe Player 1
Player 1: I'm the cop; I investigated and found that Player 2 is scum.
Player 2: Nuh uh! I'm the cop and he's scum!

Situation II: Believe Player 3
Player 1: I'm the cop; I investigated and found that Player 2 is scum.
Player 2: I'm innocent!
Player 3: I'm the real cop. Player 1 is scum!


I disagree with both of your scenarios:
In scenario 1: If the Scum pick the correct cop and claim first, we will lynch town.
In scenario 2: If the cop claims first and points out scum, and players 2 and 3 are both scum, we will lynch town.

I really don't like your logic here. We can't just say "these are the possible scenarios, and this is who we have to believe in each." Anytime a cop/countercop claim happens, we need to analyze the players to figure out which one is lying, because it's absolutely possible that both of these situations could occur counter to the way you're suggesting.

Also, regarding the BN/Lataro fighting, I agree with the logic in favor of lynching BN. I still don't see why _infina_ is dropping a second hammer, though - he dropped it yesterday. I also think Lataro needs to be investigated, as I am nowhere near convinced that he is town.

Vote: BigNose
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby tastelikecoke » Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:08 pm UTC

Although there is a pretty long explanation for most of them already, I will still state my words.

BN's number posts is there to confuse you and berate you. This is a good scum strategy to confuse townspeople, but it didn't work that well in this case. On the case that BN is a guy that wants to help his townies, BN is not helping.

Lataro is for now have a slight chance of being town. Vox pointed suspicions on Lataro in D1. If Lataro is town, this would also confirm the scumwagon actions of Vox, and that there are 2 friendly people already on the suspicion, _infina_ and Lataro in D2, mainly because of Vox. Lataro pointed out the scum tactic that Vox employed. EH also thinks that this is a trap.
This assumes Vox is now the target, It's getting out of hand. Lataro is still on the top of my scum list.

Voxilicious Imperatoristic wrote:I have an idea to test the three most suspicious people:
1. Lynch Lataro
2. Have _infina_ cast the hammer
3. Tell the Cop investigates Big Nose

I prefer Lataro being investigated and Big Nose lynched. As _infina_ suggested.

You guys are so fast and I am on the other timezone. That gives me few hours and in that few hours few people post for me to analyze it. Come on.

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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby _infina_ » Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:18 pm UTC

It appears that there are three votes on BN, with two more until a lynch. I didn't count how many were on Lataro. This time I think I will do a vanilla-power list.
Vanilla
TLC
Vox
EH
keeneal
Aardvarki
weiyaoli
Lataro
_infina_
BN
Power Role
Where I am the line between what I am sure are power roles, and everyone else is on an increasing scale of likeliness to be power. I am bound to have some wrong, so this is definitely not definite.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby tastelikecoke » Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:35 pm UTC

BigNose posted an analysis. Of himself. As I see here, EH's GF posts are the direct result of your post number 1. I think this is because of personal opinion in both sides. The rest is attack and defend. EH on the other hand is merely weighing down the 3 Actions:
1. Who to Lynch.
2. Who to Investigate.
3. Who Cast the hammer.
The likely chance that BN is a GF may make investigating BN a waste of cop life.

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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 2

Postby BigNose » Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:40 pm UTC

I can't believe this!
With 3 votes on me and only 5 needed and 3 scum to vote (i'm takin that as 1 already voted, 1 about to vote on the BW and 1 not voting. I need to role-claim now before this whole thing runs just too fast and I'm lynched.

I am the cop.

The reason I don't like the GF is because it doesn't help me in my efforts to find scum, because if I get a Townie investigation, I am not any wiser.
The reason I was banging on about the percentages was because I was after some form of idea how to play it.

I investigated Lataro last night and got a Town indication.
That is why I picked on him straight away on D2 and then slowly tried to take away that suspicion by voting for WINE, not scum.
You'll also notice that I eventually unvoted him.

In D1, I tried to protect Jayhsu, because I thought he was my Secretary. As it was, P_E turned out to be him.

If any of you would have taken 2 minutes to look at my postings as if I'm a Townie, instead of leaping on _Infina_'s idea that I am scum, you might actually have noticed.

Right now, I am tempted to call on a lynch on _Infina_, just for pushing so hard, over a response of my PERSONAL opinion.


Just in case you missed it - I am the cop, because obviously, I just wasn't subtle enough.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.


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