Crush Nightless - Game Over - lyncher wins

[webby]

My vote stays where it is. mpolo seems relatively townie, which means (assuming I'm right) I have 3/4 chance of picking out some kind of scum just with a random vote. more_people is someone who I find hard to read, he hasn't posted much, and what he has posted didn't make much sense to me.

I'll focus more on Lataro tomorrow, I'm suffering from the problem that I've never seen him as town before. I have no idea whether his response is just a typical Lataro response or a typical Lataro scum response.

They're my two most suspicious for the moment.

Secondary unvote
Secondary vote: Lataro

[cjdrum]

The annoying thing is that, now, both a Lataro and a more_people lynch seem like policy lynches - Lataro for being Lataro ( ) and more_people for not being here. And for being more_people.

I'm going to keep my vote where it is for now, though. If need be, I can change to voting more_people before deadline to prevent a nearly completely unknown lynch.
For now, though, just in case:

Secondary vote: more_people

[John Citizen]

Hmm, I am thinking that webby is acting very suspiciously. Lynching someone that isn't here, for no good reason? As I think that both cjdrum and Lataro are significantly more suspicious than more_people, I'd hazard a guess that webby is the lyncher for more_people - this is supported by the fact that webby has been trying to argue more_people's scumminess for the whole game, and doesn't like the idea of aiming for the lyncher.

Vote: webby

Secondary vote: cjdrum

Cjdrum because:

1) I think that more_people is the target, and want to prevent his lynch
2) He is slightly more suspicious than Lataro at a glance.

By my calculations, it's about 1.5 hours until deadline. I should be around to change votes until then (although I'm fairly confident with my webby vote).

[dotproduct]

Votals:

cjdrum (2) - Lataro, mpolo
more_people (1) - webby
Lataro (1) - cjdrum
webby (1) - John Citizen


Deadline in approximately 60 minutes.

[webby]

I've already explained exactly why we shouldn't aim for the lyncher. Can you refute that logic rather than just saying I'm suspicious for arguing something that seems fairly obvious to me?

I think I have better reasons for voting for more_people than I do for anyone else. If that's not the case, why was your vote on him until 1.5 hours before deadline?

mpolo has been acting fairly solidly town so far. Since you've come back, you've acted pretty townie as well. That just leaves cjdrum and more_people, and I'm not convinced at this stage that cjdrum is scum. So I'm voting for the person I think least likely to be town. Unfortunately, in this game, that's enough to get you suspected of being the lyncher for that person.

[John Citizen]

Um, I unvoted as soon as I realised that he wouldn't be around, about 19 hours ago, 3 posts after the votals. The vote was purely for activity purposes, as it said in large text when I voted. Not to mention the fact that more_people has not been scummy in any way (proposing a useful strategy, even if it does focus on the lyncher), and you said that the lynch was essentially random. Also, you've forgotten about Lataro in that list, who is significantly more scummy than more_people. About the lyncher focus, the problem is that your reasoning wasn't explained at the time that you used it to decide that more_people was scummy.

[webby]

I talked about Lataro in my previous post. I think he's more likely to be the lyncher than scum. I would change my vote to Lataro, because I think he's more scummy than cjdrum, but I have the worry that mpolo had - that it's plausible that cjdrum is the lyncher for Lataro.

In no way did I say my lynch was random. I said that there was one person I was reasonably confident of being town, therefore if I chose at random, I'd still have a 3/4 chance of picking some kind of scum. I'm not picking at random, I gave reasons why I thought the others were town.

Moreover, you played both dethy and C9++ too, and from those games more_people's silence and lack of contribution appears to me how he plays scum.

[cjdrum]

unvote: Lataro
vote: more_people

I don't want to die, and you don't want me to die. To lynch a Townie on D1 in such a small game would be horrific, so I'm preventing that as much as possible.

more_people may be Town, but from my perspective a possible Town lynch is better than a definite Town lynch.

[dotproduct]

Votals:

cjdrum (2) - Lataro, mpolo
more_people (2) - webby, cjdrum
webby (1) - John Citizen


Tie between cjdrum and more_people, with John Citizen and more_people not voting either of them.

John Citizen had his secondary vote on cjdrum.
more_people did not have his secondary vote on either cjdrum or more_people.



cjdrum has been lynched. He was the Mafia Goon.

Begin Day 2

Deadline is May 29, 5am UTC.

[Lataro]

Scum is gonna be scummy.

Next up, lets look at the votes.

Oh, webby, sitting on MP along with the mafia goon, as the only vote against a non-mafia goon.

Lets see... his posts, for ease of reference...

Spoiler:

We also can't lynch on our own right now - we require the lyncher to help us hit the scum, or the scum to help us hit the lyncher. (Forgot about secondary votes, but I think it still applies) I think you're right that we have to aim for the scum day 1, but any idea on how we would do that? It's not as if we can focus our efforts on one rather than the other.

This assumes that the scum and lyncher know each other, I really don't see how this applies.

I just realised the deadline is 3 days away. Unless we start talking, it's going to be a random lynch.

But nobody's posted any content.

So in the interest of getting some discussion going, I'm going to do some analysis based on the little that is here:
Lataro slightly townie for being eager to talk and for being the most active player.
more_people slightly scummy for focusing on the lyncher rather than the scum.
mpolo slightly townie because he appears to genuinely be working out the best strategy for town.
cjdrum lurker for only posting once.
John Citizen lurker for not posting at all.

Hopefully that starts some discussion, even if it turns out to all be wrong.

Starts attacking mp for making a suggestion about finding the lyncher, don't see how his suggestion was scummy, since he was posting an idea to help find the lyncher, not saying it should be targeted over scum. We are quite able to hunt for scum and the lyncher here without focusing on one over the other exclusively.

mpolo, I think you're forgetting the 'nightless' in the game title. There aren't any nightkills (otherwise this game would be highly unbalanced towards scum). Apart from that, I'd broadly agree with your analysis at this stage.

I'm inclined to accept more_people's focus on the lyncher, because:

Stats assuming random moves:
Number of days: 2.384 average
Town wins: 27.2%
Mafia wins: 30.0%
Lyncher wins: 42.8%

I don't condone an all-out focus on the lyncher, but it does make sense to prioritise the lyncher due to a greater probability of them winning. Anyway, the tactic should be moderately effective for scum as well, although it would require a lot more content to analyse.

That doesn't make sense to me. Say we lynch the lyncher. We then have 3 town and 2 scum. If we lynch scum, then we're either 3-1-1 or 3-0-1 depending on whether we hit the godfather. The last two scenarios are clearly dominant, because we don't necessarily immediately lose if we hit town. Not only that, but we have double the chances of hitting scum than the lyncher.

In terms of secondary votes, I assume that both Lataro and cjdrum have PM'd the mod saying not to count secondary votes posted in thread.

Again, focusing on not going for the lyncher, for some incredibly unknown reason. I really don't get where he's coming from.

Wow, still nothing?

We have 24 hours to get a consensus to lynch someone.

At this very early stage i'd put cjdrum and mpolo on the town side of neutral. I'm going to take a wild guess at lataro = lyncher, more_people = godfather, john citizen = goon. But that's really only based on john citizen defending more_people and lataro being excited, which aren't really strong tells.

Given that's all I have to go off:
Vote: more_people
Secondary vote: John Citizen

Pegs MP as scum and cjdrum as town. At this point, I think its fairly likely that MP is town here, or at the very least, not scum, as there is no reason at all for the goon to try and bus the GF, as they'd lose instantly.

My vote stays where it is. mpolo seems relatively townie, which means (assuming I'm right) I have 3/4 chance of picking out some kind of scum just with a random vote. more_people is someone who I find hard to read, he hasn't posted much, and what he has posted didn't make much sense to me.

I'll focus more on Lataro tomorrow, I'm suffering from the problem that I've never seen him as town before. I have no idea whether his response is just a typical Lataro response or a typical Lataro scum response.

They're my two most suspicious for the moment.

Secondary unvote
Secondary vote: Lataro

Nothing really new here.

I've already explained exactly why we shouldn't aim for the lyncher. Can you refute that logic rather than just saying I'm suspicious for arguing something that seems fairly obvious to me?

I think I have better reasons for voting for more_people than I do for anyone else. If that's not the case, why was your vote on him until 1.5 hours before deadline?

mpolo has been acting fairly solidly town so far. Since you've come back, you've acted pretty townie as well. That just leaves cjdrum and more_people, and I'm not convinced at this stage that cjdrum is scum. So I'm voting for the person I think least likely to be town. Unfortunately, in this game, that's enough to get you suspected of being the lyncher for that person.

Again with the "We shouldn't go for the lyncher!" stuff. Apparently, he'd rather go for possible town than the lyncher by this logic, as his only real point against MP is that he had an idea that might have merit to finding the lyncher.

I talked about Lataro in my previous post. I think he's more likely to be the lyncher than scum. I would change my vote to Lataro, because I think he's more scummy than cjdrum, but I have the worry that mpolo had - that it's plausible that cjdrum is the lyncher for Lataro.

In no way did I say my lynch was random. I said that there was one person I was reasonably confident of being town, therefore if I chose at random, I'd still have a 3/4 chance of picking some kind of scum. I'm not picking at random, I gave reasons why I thought the others were town.

Moreover, you played both dethy and C9++ too, and from those games more_people's silence and lack of contribution appears to me how he plays scum.

Nothing really new here either.

Overall, due to his seeming desire to avoid discussion of how to ferret out the lyncher, and his latching on to MP based almost purely on this post MP made...

This plan won't work for scum but it can work for the lyncher.

Why don't we towards the end of the day have everyone do an analysis on a player of their choosing which everyone else will analysis and determine whether they are the lyncher or if their analysis is genuine.

While MP has been fairly inactive otherwise, with that as his only real post so far, webby hasn't really argued the activity level of MP in his posts, he's focused primarily on the lyncher aspect of it.

I wouldn't be surprised if he was a lyncher for MP if he is the lyncher, I'd say that is more likely than the GF though.

To that end..

Vote: Webby

As for MP, can we get a prod, or a replacement perhaps? He hasn't posted anything at all since that post above.

[webby]

I've defended all that already, I voted more_people because of other people seeming town, rather than because I thought more_people was scummy. Pretty sure if I hadn't started up discussion again 24 hours before the deadline, scum/lyncher could have lynched whoever they wanted.

If I was the godfather, what possible purpose would I have for looking to lynch more_people? It's obvious that for scum, the best day 1 (or any day) strategy would be to attack the most likely to be lyncher. That for me was Lataro, and there's no way it would have been difficult at all to get Lataro lynched yesterday.

cjdrum voted for more_people and risked him being lynched, so I'd be surprised if more_people was the godfather now (maybe if cjdrum somehow knew that Lataro wasn't online, but still). So if you really think more_people is the target and I'm the lyncher, then the solution is easy. Just don't vote for more_people. Of course if more_people is the lyncher then I'm screwed, but pretty sure if that's the case I'm going down anyway.

At first I was assuming I was the target, and that John Citizen might be the lyncher for me, based on him suddenly voting for me 1.5 hours before deadline. Now I think that John Citizen is the most likely godfather - the question is why he was the only one to put suspicion on me when everyone else thought I was solidly townie and there were suggestions that Lataro might be the lyncher. The obvious answer to that is that Lataro had only attacked cjdrum and John Citizen, both scum, so they stopped being suspicious of him being the lyncher. The only other attacks were mpolo on cjdrum (scum) and me on more_people (town/lyncher). So John Citizen went for me, on the basis that he thought I was the most likely lyncher.

I'm going to wait for more contributions before voting based on that though, I do also know that John Citizen tends to read me as scummy even when he's town.

[mpolo]

And I thought I had been so clever, picking out the lyncher. It turns out I managed to vote for scum. We need to look back and see if anybody was notably "with" cjdrum, of course.

It is rather unlikely that Lataro would be the godfather (bussing when there is no real reason to do so), lyncher is still thinkable, but considering how he often gets lynched early, I would expect him to at least start making a move on his target. But Lataro is crafty, and may be biding his time. For now, the voting would tend to put him on the town side of things for me.

Pegs MP as scum and cjdrum as town. At this point, I think its fairly likely that MP is town here, or at the very least, not scum, as there is no reason at all for the goon to try and bus the GF, as they'd lose instantly.

This argument seems solid. It took me a while to get there, but given that cjdrum was the goon, he certainly wouldn't have voted more_people to save himself, since if he had been successful in saving himself, he would have lost twenty dollars and my self respect for having the godfather lynched. Therefore, more_people is either town or lyncher.

Which leaves webby and JohnCitizen. One of them must be the godfather, in my opinion. The other might be town or lyncher.

I was extremely convinced of webby's towniness, but it was JohnCitizen's secondary vote that saved the night. It could be a calculated move, though (look like you found scum, but not necessarily voting unless you are forced to). Tentatively, I'm going to put JohnCitizen into the town/lyncher category.

Which means...

FoS: webby

It's way too soon to push a lynch through. I'd like to hear from everybody, especially more_people, who ought to be back tomorrow.

[mpolo]

EBWOP: Cute. There seems to be a stray mod madness filter left over: "lost the game" comes out as "lost twenty dollars and my self respect".

[John Citizen]

I've defended all that already, I voted more_people because of other people seeming town, rather than because I thought more_people was scummy.

Really? I distinctly remember you arguing that you thought that Lataro was scummy, but that more_people was scummier.

Pretty sure if I hadn't started up discussion again 24 hours before the deadline, scum/lyncher could have lynched whoever they wanted.

If I recall correctly, it was actually me that started the real discussion, with the Lataro prod-vote. All you did was point out that there was 24 hours until deadline, and give scummy reasons for voting.

If I was the godfather, what possible purpose would I have for looking to lynch more_people? It's obvious that for scum, the best day 1 (or any day) strategy would be to attack the most likely to be lyncher. That for me was Lataro, and there's no way it would have been difficult at all to get Lataro lynched yesterday.

Why on earth would it have been Lataro? When you stated that he was likely the lyncher, your evidence was that Lataro was "excited". Anyway, Lataro was attacking cjdrum, and thus is less likely to be the lyncher. Assuming a webby/godfather perspective, it's clear that webby, cjdrum, lataro, mpolo and John Citizen are likely not the lyncher, leaving more_people. Guess who was voting for him.

cjdrum voted for more_people and risked him being lynched, so I'd be surprised if more_people was the godfather now (maybe if cjdrum somehow knew that Lataro wasn't online, but still).

True, but this has already been said, in the previous post.

So if you really think more_people is the target and I'm the lyncher, then the solution is easy. Just don't vote for more_people. Of course if more_people is the lyncher then I'm screwed, but pretty sure if that's the case I'm going down anyway.

Okay. I won't vote for more_people. But lynching you will confirm whether I'm right. After all, we have to lynch someone every day and it's better to lynch likely scum than possible town. Not to mention that you could be the godfather (see above).

At first I was assuming I was the target, and that John Citizen might be the lyncher for me, based on him suddenly voting for me 1.5 hours before deadline.

I point you to here as to why it took me so long to vote. That post took me all morning to write, and I then went to lunch. Anyway, if you thought that I was the lyncher, why didn't you vote for me over someone that you didn't think was scummy?

Now I think that John Citizen is the most likely godfather - the question is why he was the only one to put suspicion on me when everyone else thought I was solidly townie and there were suggestions that Lataro might be the lyncher. The obvious answer to that is that Lataro had only attacked cjdrum and John Citizen, both scum, so they stopped being suspicious of him being the lyncher. The only other attacks were mpolo on cjdrum (scum) and me on more_people (town/lyncher). So John Citizen went for me, on the basis that he thought I was the most likely lyncher.

At the time I voted, a more_people lynch was a distant possibility. I could have easily pushed for a Lataro lynch. The only reason that it came so close was that cjdrum voted more_people to prevent his own death. If I was scum with cjdrum, he would have had the same information as me, so why would he risk losing the game?

In summary, I do think that you are most likely the lyncher or possibly the godfather (see above). Either way, you are likely scum. I won't vote yet in interests of rushing the lynch.

Ninja by mpolo: That filter has always been there.

[webby]

Which leaves webby and JohnCitizen. One of them must be the godfather, in my opinion. The other might be town or lyncher.

I was extremely convinced of webby's towniness, but it was JohnCitizen's secondary vote that saved the night. It could be a calculated move, though (look like you found scum, but not necessarily voting unless you are forced to). Tentatively, I'm going to put JohnCitizen into the town/lyncher category.

A couple of problems I have with this:
1. John Citizen had no idea that his secondary vote was what was going to decide the lynch, so it could well have been distancing. The goon is pretty expendable to the godfather in this game anyway.
2. If John Citizen is the lyncher, it's very likely his target is me. If that's the case, if you lynch me, (assuming you're town) we lose.

Also, if I was the godfather, do you really think I would have held onto the more_people thing when cjdrum was being lynched?

I think it far more likely that John Citizen's sudden decision that I was the lyncher was because I was the only non-scum person to accuse a townie yesterday (he'd know more_people not to be scum). How else do you explain him being the only one to think I was scum?

I'm not completely convinced that Lataro wouldn't have bussed, he could have made the strategic decision that the goon doesn't matter. But cjdrum was pretty strongly against Lataro, and could possibly have led to Lataro getting lynched, so that's reasonably convincing to me.

Given that, I think John Citizen is the godfather:
Vote: John Citizen

[webby]

I've defended all that already, I voted more_people because of other people seeming town, rather than because I thought more_people was scummy.

Really? I distinctly remember you arguing that you thought that Lataro was scummy, but that more_people was scummier.

Yes, I argued that Lataro was the most likely lyncher. Not that he was goon/godfather, and I gave my reasons for wanting to hit scum.

Pretty sure if I hadn't started up discussion again 24 hours before the deadline, scum/lyncher could have lynched whoever they wanted.

If I recall correctly, it was actually me that started the real discussion, with the Lataro prod-vote. All you did was point out that there was 24 hours until deadline, and give scummy reasons for voting.

Look at the post times and you'll find there was no discussion for nearly two days, then I posted and you posted half an hour later.

If I was the godfather, what possible purpose would I have for looking to lynch more_people? It's obvious that for scum, the best day 1 (or any day) strategy would be to attack the most likely to be lyncher. That for me was Lataro, and there's no way it would have been difficult at all to get Lataro lynched yesterday.

Why on earth would it have been Lataro? When you stated that he was likely the lyncher, your evidence was that Lataro was "excited". Anyway, Lataro was attacking cjdrum, and thus is less likely to be the lyncher. Assuming a webby/godfather perspective, it's clear that webby, cjdrum, lataro, mpolo and John Citizen are likely not the lyncher, leaving more_people. Guess who was voting for him.

Actually that was cjdrum's argument, Lataro overreacted to it, that was why Lataro seemed scummy. I originally said Lataro seemed townie.

So if you really think more_people is the target and I'm the lyncher, then the solution is easy. Just don't vote for more_people. Of course if more_people is the lyncher then I'm screwed, but pretty sure if that's the case I'm going down anyway.

Okay. I won't vote for more_people. But lynching you will confirm whether I'm right. After all, we have to lynch someone every day and it's better to lynch likely scum than possible town. Not to mention that you could be the godfather (see above).

Then you're basically saying that Lataro or mpolo are the godfather. mpolo has acted town, so why not vote for Lataro?

At first I was assuming I was the target, and that John Citizen might be the lyncher for me, based on him suddenly voting for me 1.5 hours before deadline.

I point you to here as to why it took me so long to vote. That post took me all morning to write, and I then went to lunch. Anyway, if you thought that I was the lyncher, why didn't you vote for me over someone that you didn't think was scummy?

When I said 'at first', I meant after I found out cjdrum was scum.

Now I think that John Citizen is the most likely godfather - the question is why he was the only one to put suspicion on me when everyone else thought I was solidly townie and there were suggestions that Lataro might be the lyncher. The obvious answer to that is that Lataro had only attacked cjdrum and John Citizen, both scum, so they stopped being suspicious of him being the lyncher. The only other attacks were mpolo on cjdrum (scum) and me on more_people (town/lyncher). So John Citizen went for me, on the basis that he thought I was the most likely lyncher.

At the time I voted, a more_people lynch was a distant possibility. I could have easily pushed for a Lataro lynch. The only reason that it came so close was that cjdrum voted more_people to prevent his own death. If I was scum with cjdrum, he would have had the same information as me, so why would he risk losing the game?

I don't understand your point here?

[John Citizen]

It's way too soon to push a lynch through. I'd like to hear from everybody, especially more_people, who ought to be back tomorrow.

I agree - FoS: Lataro, webby for this.

Which leaves webby and JohnCitizen. One of them must be the godfather, in my opinion. The other might be town or lyncher.

I was extremely convinced of webby's towniness, but it was JohnCitizen's secondary vote that saved the night. It could be a calculated move, though (look like you found scum, but not necessarily voting unless you are forced to). Tentatively, I'm going to put JohnCitizen into the town/lyncher category.

A couple of problems I have with this:
1. John Citizen had no idea that his secondary vote was what was going to decide the lynch, so it could well have been distancing. The goon is pretty expendable to the godfather in this game anyway.
2. If John Citizen is the lyncher, it's very likely his target is me. If that's the case, if you lynch me, (assuming you're town) we lose.

With 1, I knew it was a possibility. If I had voted Lataro, Lataro would have been lynched due to your secondary vote. I didn't, thus causing cjdrum to be lynched. I disagree that the goon is expendable - scum can win easily in two days if the goon is alive, but it takes 4 days of perfect play for the scum to win if the goon dies.
I won't comment on 2 or we'll be drowned in wine.

Also, if I was the godfather, do you really think I would have held onto the more_people thing when cjdrum was being lynched?

There was no way that you could have changed the outcome by voting Lataro, as nobody had their secondary vote on him, aside from you.

I think it far more likely that John Citizen's sudden decision that I was the lyncher was because I was the only non-scum person to accuse a townie yesterday (he'd know more_people not to be scum). How else do you explain him being the only one to think I was scum?

Why would cjdrum risk the lyncher winning if we were both scum?

Spoilered for length:

Spoiler:

I've defended all that already, I voted more_people because of other people seeming town, rather than because I thought more_people was scummy.

Really? I distinctly remember you arguing that you thought that Lataro was scummy, but that more_people was scummier.

Yes, I argued that Lataro was the most likely lyncher. Not that he was goon/godfather, and I gave my reasons for wanting to hit scum.

You're missing the point. You clearly stated that you thought more_people was scummy.

Pretty sure if I hadn't started up discussion again 24 hours before the deadline, scum/lyncher could have lynched whoever they wanted.

If I recall correctly, it was actually me that started the real discussion, with the Lataro prod-vote. All you did was point out that there was 24 hours until deadline, and give scummy reasons for voting.

Look at the post times and you'll find there was no discussion for nearly two days, then I posted and you posted half an hour later.

True - but the reason that I posted was that the lynch was 24 hours away. I'm sure that I would have noticed at some point anyway. Not to mention that all you actually did was give scummy reasons for voting more_people.

If I was the godfather, what possible purpose would I have for looking to lynch more_people? It's obvious that for scum, the best day 1 (or any day) strategy would be to attack the most likely to be lyncher. That for me was Lataro, and there's no way it would have been difficult at all to get Lataro lynched yesterday.

Why on earth would it have been Lataro? When you stated that he was likely the lyncher, your evidence was that Lataro was "excited". Anyway, Lataro was attacking cjdrum, and thus is less likely to be the lyncher. Assuming a webby/godfather perspective, it's clear that webby, cjdrum, lataro, mpolo and John Citizen are likely not the lyncher, leaving more_people. Guess who was voting for him.

Actually that was cjdrum's argument, Lataro overreacted to it, that was why Lataro seemed scummy. I originally said Lataro seemed townie.

Umm... it wasn't just his argument. Lataro hadn't reacted to it at all (or even posted) at the time that you posted that. Anyhow, you're missing the main point: if the team is webby and cjdrum, then the only one out of all of the players not voting for scum are the scum themselves and more_people. Therefore more_people is more likely the lyncher.

So if you really think more_people is the target and I'm the lyncher, then the solution is easy. Just don't vote for more_people. Of course if more_people is the lyncher then I'm screwed, but pretty sure if that's the case I'm going down anyway.

Okay. I won't vote for more_people. But lynching you will confirm whether I'm right. After all, we have to lynch someone every day and it's better to lynch likely scum than possible town. Not to mention that you could be the godfather (see above).

Then you're basically saying that Lataro or mpolo are the godfather. mpolo has acted town, so why not vote for Lataro?

Because I'm not actually sure which is which, but I am fairly sure that you are scum (lyncher inclusive).

At first I was assuming I was the target, and that John Citizen might be the lyncher for me, based on him suddenly voting for me 1.5 hours before deadline.

I point you to here as to why it took me so long to vote. That post took me all morning to write, and I then went to lunch. Anyway, if you thought that I was the lyncher, why didn't you vote for me over someone that you didn't think was scummy?

When I said 'at first', I meant after I found out cjdrum was scum.

In that case, why would cjdrum being scum make me a likely lyncher? I'm not seeing the connection.

Now I think that John Citizen is the most likely godfather - the question is why he was the only one to put suspicion on me when everyone else thought I was solidly townie and there were suggestions that Lataro might be the lyncher. The obvious answer to that is that Lataro had only attacked cjdrum and John Citizen, both scum, so they stopped being suspicious of him being the lyncher. The only other attacks were mpolo on cjdrum (scum) and me on more_people (town/lyncher). So John Citizen went for me, on the basis that he thought I was the most likely lyncher.

At the time I voted, a more_people lynch was a distant possibility. I could have easily pushed for a Lataro lynch. The only reason that it came so close was that cjdrum voted more_people to prevent his own death. If I was scum with cjdrum, he would have had the same information as me, so why would he risk losing the game?

I don't understand your point here?

It's very simple. If I was in a scum team with cjdrum, he would have had the same information that I did, yet he risked the more_people lynch. Therefore, me being godfather is obviously not a valid explanation for me voting for you.

[Lataro]

I've defended all that already, I voted more_people because of other people seeming town, rather than because I thought more_people was scummy. Pretty sure if I hadn't started up discussion again 24 hours before the deadline, scum/lyncher could have lynched whoever they wanted.

If I was the godfather, what possible purpose would I have for looking to lynch more_people? It's obvious that for scum, the best day 1 (or any day) strategy would be to attack the most likely to be lyncher. That for me was Lataro, and there's no way it would have been difficult at all to get Lataro lynched yesterday.

cjdrum voted for more_people and risked him being lynched, so I'd be surprised if more_people was the godfather now (maybe if cjdrum somehow knew that Lataro wasn't online, but still). So if you really think more_people is the target and I'm the lyncher, then the solution is easy. Just don't vote for more_people. Of course if more_people is the lyncher then I'm screwed, but pretty sure if that's the case I'm going down anyway.

At first I was assuming I was the target, and that John Citizen might be the lyncher for me, based on him suddenly voting for me 1.5 hours before deadline. Now I think that John Citizen is the most likely godfather - the question is why he was the only one to put suspicion on me when everyone else thought I was solidly townie and there were suggestions that Lataro might be the lyncher. The obvious answer to that is that Lataro had only attacked cjdrum and John Citizen, both scum, so they stopped being suspicious of him being the lyncher. The only other attacks were mpolo on cjdrum (scum) and me on more_people (town/lyncher). So John Citizen went for me, on the basis that he thought I was the most likely lyncher.

I'm going to wait for more contributions before voting based on that though, I do also know that John Citizen tends to read me as scummy even when he's town.

I'm sorry, did I miss a post in the spoiler of all your posts I found thus far? How could you of "defended all that already" when I looked over every single post you had made? As for the second line, pure wine. All you are saying is, "It would of clearly been better for me as this role to do this, but I didn't! See, I'm not that role!" completely meaningless.

Next up, suspecting something is possible, and knowing it for a fact are different things entirely. I completely agree that if we KNEW IT FOR A FACT that you were a lyncher for MP, we could largely ignore you til the GF was dealt with, though, there is no reason at all to do so, then lynch you. Unfortunately, my crystal ball is broken, and I can't see the future, so I guess I'll just stick with, we should lynch a possible scum/lyncher.

I do suspect JC somewhat still, as it seemed like cjdrum was following him with a vote against me, and I can see him (cjdrum) making a bad play like that. I agree that if he is anti-town, it is likely the GF, not the lyncher. I still believe the lyncher is you, and have far more confidence in that than him as the GF, as it's based mostly on cjdrum's actions rather than his.

The last line... I am just completely confused by it. You are going to wait for more discussion/ect before voting for someone, because you know that they tend to think you are scummy when they are town? So you are saying that JC would see you as scummy when he is town basically... I really don't know where you were going with that.



On to other matters, as for the vote, I hardly see placing a single vote of the three required when we lack any coordinated scum team that could hammer it, which would be suicide if it happened for them, as not that big of a deal. They would of been instantly outted as anti-town if they had advanced it further so soon. I placed my vote were my suspicions were purely because it would only be one vote against the person. I had actually hoped that someone else would vote for him by the time I got on again, as they would of clearly revealed themselves as scum. I think the lack of anyone doing so doesn't say much, but it does very slightly point to webby being anti-town as it would halve the chances of someone doing so.

[more_people]

Yeah sorry, cjdrum was right about me not having internet access although I was surprised that was scum.

webby seems to be targeting me alot which could be that he is scum or he is a lyncher for me. Either way, I would vote for him but I don't want that vote to be a OMGUS vote so nothing else here for now.

Will post more content when it comes up.

[Lataro]

Not exactly the overwhelming content hoped for there.

How about something more than "will post more content when it comes up" whatever that means.

There is plenty to have an opinion on.

FoS: MP

[more_people]

And I have stated my opinion on the content that I've read thoroughly.

[Lataro]

If it wasn't so incredibly unlikely that you were the GF, and the fact that you've done next to nothing at all any way, making you unlikely to be the lyncher, I'd want to lynch you so hard right now. Instead, I think it is more likely you are just unhelpful useless town, unfortunately.

Two pages, one line. That is not content, there is nothing of value in what you have posted. I'm going to stop here before I say something unkind...

[dotproduct]

Votals:

Webby (1) - Lataro
John Citizen (1) - webby


Deadline in approximately 5 days.

[webby]

Ok, so I was going to wait for mpolo and more_people to post, but they're still missing. I think we're getting killed by inactivity here - I think that more_people is likely to be town, and is almost certainly not godfather. I'm not going to rule out mpolo being scum, but he hasn't done anything particularly scummy so far.

From my point of view, the godfather almost has to be John Citizen or mpolo.

I think there's a good case for John Citizen to be the godfather. Look at when he attacked me. At the same time, mpolo was saying I seemed 'the most townie' and nobody else had raised any suspicion towards me. To me, that suggests he had extra information - ie he knew the scum were cjrdum and himself. He saw one non-scum pursuing the lynch of another non-scum and assumed that I must be the lyncher.

Lataro's attack on me is a little more neutral, because it comes after the reveal of cjdrum as scum, so I'm not going to draw any conclusions on who the lyncher is yet.

I would like mpolo and more_people's opinions on the above - I'm fairly sure that at least one of you is town and think the most likely scenario is that both of you are. If my suspicions are right and we hit the godfather today, we're 3 vs 1 - we can take down someone who's unlikely to be the target tomorrow and still get a second chance if they're not the lyncher.

[mpolo]

Sorry, I was around yesterday, but didn't immediately see anything to say. I think that one of JC or Webby has to be the godfather, so I propose to do a reread concentrating on those two today. I should have time to do so. I hope.

[mpolo]

Sorry for the delays. Here are summaries of the two people I consider most likely to be godfather. I typed this in Open Office for some reason, so forgive the German quotation marks, please.

John Citizen

Spoiler:

1. Confused by self-votes; thinks a partial concentration on the lyncher would be wise, because lynchers win 42,8% of the time (with random moves). --> slight scum lean, possibly
2. Explains secondary vote confusion; backs off of the desire to seek the lyncher a bit, was led by more_people in the first place; Lataro is lurky, votes; More_people has one contentful post, secondary_votes. Ranks players on terms of content. --> mostly neutral; the excuse for backing off of the lyncher strategy seems weak for JC, though, so slight scummy tinge.
3. Explains vote, unvotes, FoS (Lataro had voted him). Cjdrum’s vote for Lataro is not justified, he was only lurking at that point. Votes more_people to encourage participation. --> rightly points out cjdrum’s bad vote, but doesn’t vote him for it; in retrospect, slightly scummy
4. Unvotes because more_people out for the weekend. Doesn’t see „excitedness“ in Lataro’s posting (against cjdrum). --> neutral-towny (though again, there is no vote)
5. Webby is suspicious due to saying he would vote more_people if no majority at deadline. Cjdrum is slightly more suspicious than Lataro. --> neutral-towny (only secondary vote, but it was the deciding vote)
6. Vote for more_people was only to stimulate activity, he hasn’t been scummy at all. Webby has changed his reasoning about more_people. --> seems to be trying to twist things – somewhat scummy
7. Takes issue with webby’s vote explanation (webby said more_people was least townie; CJ says he said that more_people was really scummy). Argues about who got discussion going near lynch. Attributes cjdrum’s „excited Lataro“ argument, which webby picked up on. Since Lataro was after cjdrum, he was unlikely the lyncher, so webby couldn’t have thought that L was the lyncher. Webby must be either godfather or lyncher. Explains late vote on webby. Didn’t push Lataro lynch. Argument that I don’t understand (if JC were scum, why would cjdrum vote more_people and risk losing the game – it seems to me that lynching JC would have been the way to lose twenty dollars and my self respect in that situation). --> some confusion, but generally neutral

Conclusion: several slightly scummy posts that lead me to read everything in a scummy light

webby

Spoiler:

1. The lyncher is necessary to have a majority over scum, and scum is necessary to help hit the lyncher. --> setup spec – neutral-towny
2. Tries to stimulate discussion with list of suspicions. -- towny
3. Corrects my misunderstanding about night kills. Argues against JC’s lyncher strategy. -> neutral-towny
4. Sees that there are 24 hours left, makes a wild guess on the scum. Cites the „excited“ theory. -> slightly scummy
5. Retains more_people vote; Secondary votes Lataro, who is difficult to read. -> neutral (knowing what we know now, there could be a scum agenda there, but not necessarily at the time the post was made).
6. Lyncher strategy is flawed. Better reasons for more_people than for anyone else. Not convinced that cjdrum is scum. ->neutral
7. Lataro more likely lyncher than scum. My idea about cjdrum as lyncher was plausible. Not choosing at random. More_people is playing like he does as scum. -> neutral
8. Reexplains more_people vote. Hypothetical, „if I were a godfather“ speech. more_people very unlikely godfather. Wonders why JC is going for him. --> I don’t like the hypothetical arguments, but the rest of the post seems very solid town
9. JC didn’t know that the sec. Vote would count; possible distancing. If JC is lyncher, he’s trying to lynch webby. more_people/Lataro are unlikely scum. Votes JC. --> logic seems solid.
10. Explains that he thought Lataro was lyncher and didn’t want to lynch the lyncher day one. I was the one who started discussion again. Lataro’s scummy feel came from using the same argument JC just used. Why aren’t you voting Lataro if you think he’s the GF? Clarifies a point. Doesn’t understand the same one I didn’t understand. --> looking more and more towny

Conclusion: A few questionable lines, but in general very towny in my reading.

As a result --

Vote: John Citizen

[dotproduct]

Votals:

John Citizen (2) - webby, mpolo
Webby (1) - Lataro


Deadline in approximately 3 days.

[Lataro]

At this time, I still am most sure of webby, as his actions could fit for either scum role, and seem to be unlikely any kind of town, so my vote is staying. Can we get a prod on JC, since he hasn't posted since Sunday? It looks like him and MP will decide things, if they show up, that is.

[dotproduct]

John Citizen has been prodded.

[webby]

John Citizen has been prodded.

Can more_people also be prodded? I shouldn't have waited until Friday to ask this given he's not around on the weekend...

[dotproduct]

more_people has been prodded. (I wouldn't have done it yet if he was around on weekends.)

[John Citizen]

The point that nobody seems to understand:

1. I believe that webby is the lyncher for more_people.
2. Webby claims that I am saying this because webby was the only person voting for non-scum, and I would have known this if I was godfather.
3. If I was godfather, both myself and cjdrum would have the same information.
4. Cjdrum voted more_people, risking his lynch.
5. Therefore, cjdrum likely didn't believe that more_people was the target.
6. Therefore, cjdrum and I did not share the knowledge of webby likely being the lyncher.
7. CONTRADICTION
8. Therefore, the only thing that could have made me think that webby is the lyncher is analysis. And when you look at it, it's incredibly obvious. Webby was attacking more_people over one post that was not in any way scummy - especially as there were far better candidates available.

And as I seem to need to state it explicitly: I never, once, said that I thought that Lataro was the godfather. That's a plain twisting of my words.

As I'm almost certain by his D1 behaviour and the way he has been acting D2 that webby is anti-town, I will:

Vote: webby

[mpolo]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand that since this is a nightless, the scum are not in contact with one another outside of the thread. Of course, if John Citizen doesn't know this, he's unlikely to be scum.

Unvote

Until this doubt is cleared up.

[webby]

The point that nobody seems to understand:

1. I believe that webby is the lyncher for more_people.
2. Webby claims that I am saying this because webby was the only person voting for non-scum, and I would have known this if I was godfather.
3. If I was godfather, both myself and cjdrum would have the same information.
4. Cjdrum voted more_people, risking his lynch.
5. Therefore, cjdrum likely didn't believe that more_people was the target.
6. Therefore, cjdrum and I did not share the knowledge of webby likely being the lyncher.
7. CONTRADICTION
8. Therefore, the only thing that could have made me think that webby is the lyncher is analysis. And when you look at it, it's incredibly obvious. Webby was attacking more_people over one post that was not in any way scummy - especially as there were far better candidates available.

Why is there a contradiction there? cjdrum doesn't have to reach the same conclusion as you just because he has the same information.

I was attacking more_people over more than that. I've played two games with more_people previous to this. In one game he was extremely active and was town, and in the other he was extremely quiet and was scum. I didn't believe cjdrum was scum, although I did entertain the possibility he was the lyncher for Lataro. So I wasn't going to vote for cjdrum or Lataro. mpolo was acting town and you were acting reasonably townie too. Who else was I going to vote for?

[mpolo]

Agreed. This is pretty shoddy reasoning. Presuming that John Citizen and cjdrum are both scum, the only information they share is that the other four people are not scum. What the role of each person is within that foursome is up to the individual scum players to decide. And they don't get to communicate.

So, either John Citizen is

1) mistaken about a mechanic of the game — and therefore not likely scum (scum would know all too well that they don't communicate

or

2) desperately trying to get some distance from cjdrum

And I'm leaning towards 2 pretty strongly. I unvoted thinking that 1 might be true, but after my confusion on a similar point, webby made the mechanic pretty clear. It is rather unlikely that there was a confusion there.

So I'm putting my vote back where I had it.

Vote: John Citizen

[dotproduct]

Votals:

Webby (2) - Lataro, John Citizen
John Citizen (2) - webby, mpolo


If I haven't found a replacement and more_people hasn't posted within 48 hours, more_people will be modkilled.

Deadline is extended to May 31, 5am UTC.

[mpolo]

I believe more_people is always out over the weekend (which isn't an excuse for not posting at all, of course). Could I suggest that his deadline be moved to a bit later on Monday so that he has a chance to post?

I don't know if this changes much for the rest of us. If he is the lynchee, then the lyncher automatically loses and we don't have to bother about figuring out who the lyncher is. That probably means that m_p isn't the lynchee, though, as it would be kind of unfair to another player to just kill him. If he's the lyncher, we have one less problem. It's highly unlikely that he's the godfather.

What it does mean is that we have to hit the godfather now -- ideally tomorrow we have two townies and the lyncher and lynch either the lyncher or the non-lynchee, and so the town wins. As no one has made a move on me at all, the safest move for tomorrow (assuming we get the godfather today) would probably be to lynch me, since lyncher-lynchee last pair wins for town, I believe (please check this!)

[John Citizen]

As this is critical to mpolo's argument:

What happens if the target is modkilled?

What happens if the lyncher is lynched and the target modkilled simultaneously?

@mpolo, webby:

You're completely misinterpreting my argument - it's in order for a reason. All that it's saying is that:

1. Webby voting more_people while I am godfather cannot be the reason that I think that he is the lyncher for more_people, because if that was the only reason, cjdrum would be logically compelled to not vote more_people.

Not:

2. It is impossible for me to be scum with cjdrum, because cjdrum didn't think that more_people was the target.

1 is a valid argument. 2 is wrong, and incredibly winey. Also, webby, you should probably stop contradicting yourself. You keep changing your position on whether you thought more_people was scummy.

I second the request for a deadline extension for more_people.

[webby]

I never said that it was the only reason you were suspicious of me, I was saying that I thought it was a combination of my vote for more_people and you knowing who wasn't scum.

As for the supposed contradiction, overall what I've been saying is that on day 1 I thought more_people was scummy relative to the others. I voted more_people on the basis both that other people were town and that he was slightly scummy. Maybe the second of those posts should have had a 'just' in it, but I think the context is important - I was responding to Lataro saying that more_people's posts weren't enough to justify voting him, so I was emphasising the thinking others were town part of it.

I agree that it would be a good idea for more_people to be given monday to post, provided the deadline could also be extended by an extra day (currently they're a day apart) - I don't think simultaneously having a modkill and a lynch is a good idea in a game this small - we need the information of more_people's role.

[dotproduct]

I've been informed that "more_people now has no access", so I'm not extending his deadline.


What happens if the target is modkilled?

lyncher wins


What happens if the lyncher is lynched and the target is modkilled simultaneously?

If the hammer hits before I call the modkill, the lyncher loses.
If I call the modkill before the hammer hits, the lyncher wins.