Lataro's Simple Fun Game Over: Town wins.

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby Bartimaeus » Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:06 am UTC

Sorry, I've been rather busy with school as usual :/


Bussing in that situation(D1, no less) seems a little bizarre, wam. Although I can see the logic behind it. I'm going to have to think this out more and reread.

Are we definitely all claiming?

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby Bartimaeus » Thu Feb 21, 2013 12:06 am UTC

As my "DAMMIT I DIED" post, I would like to apologize to everyone for my utter lack of activity lately. I've gotten progressively more preoccupied by school, and the game almost completely skipped my mind. I really should have known better than to have started a game that would continue into the semester, but I was on break and bored. Anyway, I'm sorry.

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 26, 2013 1:56 am UTC

Hello, I'm replacing Phradd94. I'm catching up now but probably can't post significantly until after the weekend. Anyone doing a little summery of D1 would be appreciated.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 26, 2013 2:50 pm UTC

Hello, I have caught up. If I am a cop:
Spoiler:
My hovercraft is full of eels.


Carlington wrote:Alright, but how do town's power roles know that there's a doctor if the doctor never claims such until they're about to be lynched? Then town gets at best one night of protection before mafia NK's the doctor. I can't think of a better way to play it, but it seems like an awfully ineffective strategy.
The doctor can use his power every night without revealing who he is. That's how all power roles work, they send their power usage PM to the mod each night.
Re: Snark, I wouldn't know. At the very least the pool of scum candidates has reduced by about a quarter.
Are you saying that you had a list of four possible scum and snark was one of them but he is now dead? Who are the other three? D1 you didn't seem to have nearly that strong of an opinion.

I have a town to scum list that I will post, but I want to hear Carlington's answer first.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:03 am UTC

First for the record, I played with Silknor before and he is objectively always against mass claims. That is not a scummy position for him.

That said, he's aggression is surprising. Madge is clearly just bad at strategy. (sorry). If she is scum then her "attempts" to trick the power role and cops into claiming are just way too blatant. I can't see scum thinking those would work so I'm pretty sure she is town and didn't realize how badly worded her suggestions were. I've never played with Scum-Silknor before but he is usually a much more passive player. That said, they are both on the town end of my scum list.

Speaking of, everyone should make a list of all the players and your impression of each. And the end summarize your conclusions. Do not just list summerys of actions, you must draw conclusions for the list to be useful. If you're having trouble drawing conclusions just go with your gut and say what your thinking. The more honest raw thinking you put down the better we can judge you. If you are town you have nothing to worry about by being honest (except of course don't even hint what your role is besides town). This really should have been done D1. At the bottom of the page you can sort posts by author. That can help reread people individually.

1. Carlington - Refuses to attack anyone or state a real opinion (slightly scummy, but reduced for noobyness). Says scum are easier to find now which ignores the assassin death (sounds like thinking from a mafia perspective) - scummy

2. Christophoros - Disappeared D2. Pushes for more fake roadblocked claims. (would help scum find the cop, slightly scummy for bad strategy but reduced for noobyness). Not much content and voted for snark in a "me too" fashion. (scummy). Attacked wam for "encourage the vig to waste his shot (slightly townie extra townie if wam is scum) - slightly scummy, needs a modprod.

3. wam - Lots of neutral strategy talk. Posts "shot snark" then later says vig should withhold but only after Suzaku said it first. (scummy). Keeps vote on Eculc (very townie is Eculc is scum) - Slightly scummy unless Eculc is scum (then town).

4. Phredd94/Boomfrog - Draw your own conclusion.

5. Bartimaeus - Supports vig vote (slightly scummy) Asks good questions promoting discussion (slightly townie). Clearly rereading and analyzing the thread, posts several analysis of several players (very townie). Voted Snark, but argued both sides (net slightly scummy) - Townie

6. Silknor - Pages of strategy talk, most is good although overly detailed but that's silknor's style. (townie) Contains flawed advice about the roleblocked cop claims (scummy).* Points out significant errors in Madge's posts D2. (townie) - Town

7. Suzaku - Sound anti-assassin ideas for dealing with Snark. (townie since mafia would prefer the assassin to get their kill off, and mafia didn't know snark wasn't the assassin). Low content (slightly scummy, but excused for RL issues) Voted Eculc (if Eculc is scum then very townie) - Slightly townie (unless Eculc is scum)

8. Madge - Lots of empty content D1. (scummy) Votes Snark then changes to Eculc (neutral unless Eculc is scum) Comes up with an excellent strategy for a mass claim (very townie) but purposely withheld talking about a potential flaw (the flaw isn't a real flaw but the intention is scummy) - All over the place but posting the Follow-the-chosen strategy would have been a suicidally bad idea for mafia, so - slightly town

9. Eculc - Overly nervous about the RVS vote on him (slightly scummy). Very "me too" vote on Snark including saying town-snark isn't aggressive which is clearly false, Snark is always aggressive. (scummy) No comments on other players except his intention to lynch snark (very scummy) - Scum

Town
Bartimaeus
Silknor

Neutral
Suzaku
Madge
Christophoros

Scum
Wam
Carlington
Eculc

Ecluc tops the charts and his flip would also shed some light on other's alignments if he is scum due to the close race yesterday.

Vote Eculc

*Spoilered because after all the analysis I proved myself wrong. But I don't want to delete my 45 minutes of work. You really don't need to read this, but it basically proves that Silknor's modification of the Mass Cop Claim was a good idea.
Spoiler:
Silknor wrote:*There's one twist here though, the roleblocker. The typical thing to do, when a cop gets roleblocked, is for the mod to tell them that it failed or that they didn't get a result, not to say, report town regardless of alignment. As such, if there's a roleblocker, and if they hit the cop, said cop is in a potentially tricky situation. To say they were roleblocked is the same as a cop claim, is always an option of course. To lie is risky, as it always is when townies lie**, especially here, for obvious reasons. To say they investigated their self and got whatever they think they would've gotten is an option as well***

***For this to work, eg. for the cop to be able to say that when roleblocked without revealing that they are a cop, other people have to do so as well. Eg. if we agreed on such a system, we might say that at the start of the day, non-cops flip a coin twice, and if it comes up heads both times, they pretend to have investigated their self, otherwise they give a result on someone else. If the cop gets roleblocked twice, then the problem resurfaces, but this is clearly not particularly likely, and the cop under such a system does not seem to be worse off than without they would be if roleblocked twice without the mass cop report.

This is the original proposition of the Silknor flavor Mass cop report. For this analysis I'm ignoring the possibility that the cop target a person who died, because at this point Silknor hasn't considered that possibility. Bold shows the possibilities that silknor is considering which don't include the cop saying they target a dead person and safely lying about the result. So we have four possible scenarios:

Silknor's Mass Cop claim:
Cop who was not RBed: truthful
Non-cop who not RBed: 1/4 chance to give strong clue that he is not a cop.
Cop who was RBed: Gives strong clue to scum that he is a cop.
Non-Cop who was RBed: 3/4 chance to prove non-cop.

Original Mass Cop claim:
Cop who was not RBed: truthful
Non-cop who not RBed: looks like a cop
Cop who was RBed: Outed as a cop
Non-Cop who was RBed: Outed as a non-cop

But we have 10 non-mafia players and 1-2 cops. The chance that a cop is RBed is very low at most 1/5, most likely 1/10. Under Silknor's system the RB target who looks like a cop is still going to be killed the next night by scum since he is still 3/4th chance to be a cop. So the benefit of Silknor's modification is 1/4 of the time the mafia's kill will be directed at a non-cop instead of randomly possibly hitting a cop. P= number of players alive D2. So there is a (1/4)*(1/P) chance that silknor's modification saves the cops life. The downside is that a quarter of the players each night will give a strong clue that they are not a cop. So there is a (3/4)*(1/(P(3/4)))=(1/P) chance that the cop would be hit under Silknor's system.

Oh, silknor was right.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:16 am UTC

Ahh, I remembered why Silknor's strategy modification was flawed. It is a benefit if there is a mafia RBer but a detriment if there is not one. 50/50 whither there is one or not, but if Silknor is scum he already knows the answer. Still I rate him as likely town, but if we later discover there is no mafia RBer eyebrows will be raised. If we confirm that there is a RBer then Silknor is as town as you can be without a confirmed cop confirming you.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:46 pm UTC

@chris, sorry, i didn't do the full strategy analysis until i got to silknor. I should have qualified that your suggestion is townie if there is a mafia roleblocker and scummy otherwise.

If there is no roleblocker then you are now needlessly eliminating a large % of the potential cops. However, if there is a roleblocker then your modification is superior to silknor's plan.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 29, 2013 8:45 am UTC

I don't want to bog down the thread with a rehash of yesterdays pages of strategy so I'll keep this as brief as I can.
As I explain later, that's why the cop should consider a lie in some cases. If they investigate someone who died during the night, they gain nothing from revealing that information (we'll know their sanity anyway when they die). Thus they can freely claim they were roleblocked, and in doing so help keep their average number of roleblocks claimed in line with the average for the rest of players.
First, everyone should not be making any distinction between "I was roleblocked" and "I targeted a player who died" neither of these are useful to town so there is no need to give extra detail. A cop and all other pretend cops never needs to "lie" just say, "no useful result".
So if you want to claim that my variation wasn't ideal in it's first iteration, you have my full agreement. That's why I made modifications as we went through day 1.
With the inclusion of the possibility of targeting dead people in "no useful result" the strategy becomes sound and helpful to town in most cases and only slightly detrimental in the worst case. As I said, my general read on you is townie for taking the lead in developing good strategy, but with a slight caveat that your initial proposition is unhelpful to town if there is no mafia RBer. For the record I think the ideal % of "no result" claims is equal to the chance of targeting a dead person, thus in the worst case of no RBer mafia gains no information at all. A % between 0-50% have canceling out chances of either helping narrow down likely cops or tricking the mafia RB into believing they were successful. The main benefit of the plan is to allow for a cop targeted by a town RBer to not be automatically outed or forced to lie. 1/5th is close enough that I'm not going to argue it.

As to Madge's strategy, it is interesting that both of you keep entertaining the idea that scum might claim chosen. I think it is very unlikely because the chosen have to say what variations are in effect and this claim is testable with a mass claim afterwords. I know Silknor is against mass claims, but in Madge's original version scum have very little chance to perfectly guess the setup so have little chance to survive falseclaiming chosen.

Also what setup has only 2 VT? I counted 3VT minimum in C36.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 29, 2013 8:58 am UTC

eculc wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@chris, sorry, i didn't do the full strategy analysis until i got to silknor. I should have qualified that your suggestion is townie if there is a mafia roleblocker and scummy otherwise.
How is his suggestion more townie or scummy based on information he would not have as a townie? If he knows which one it is, he must be scum so therefore should be lynched. But since we can't assume that he does know...

Care to explain your reasoning?
If the plan is bad for town then it is evidence that he is scum and did it on purpose. It's not proof but almost nothing is in this game. We won't know if his plan was bad for town or not until D3 at least though. I'm not sure what your confusion is?

Christophoros wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@chris, sorry, i didn't do the full strategy analysis until i got to silknor. I should have qualified that your suggestion is townie if there is a mafia roleblocker and scummy otherwise.
Given that 50% of the setups have a scummy roleblacker, and the other two allow for a D3 switch to a roleblocker, I think erring on the side of caution is valid. Especially since (imo) the information the scum will gain from too LOW a roleblock count is more dangerous than the information they will gain from too HIGH a roleblock count.
A high % of "no result" claims eliminates most of those players from the pool of "likely cops" and makes it easier for scum to find the cop regardless of mafia roles. Your modification does help a cop who is targeted by a mafia RBer stay hidden but that situation is only roughly 1/9 N1. And the other 8/9 times all you've done is cut out half the players from the pool of likely cops. Your modification is definitely worse then Silknor's original plan, extremely so if there is not a mafia RBer.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 29, 2013 2:34 pm UTC

Madge prefers female pronouns. Besides that looks pretty good. I believe we are still waiting for Eculc, Chris and other Chris to post lists. You don't have to reread everything but at least post a list and your impressions of each player. If you're town then you have nothing to hide.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 30, 2013 2:19 am UTC

@Boomfrog: I think you may be right that combining "I targeted someone who died last night" and "I was roleblocked" are best combined into "no result." However, the probability of "no result" should be the probability that they were roleblocked plus the probability that if they were not roleblocked, they targeted someone who died that night. That is entirely doable, but requires that probabilities be calculated in the morning according to a formula. Because it is possible that 0 or 3 die, and trying to cut the middle ground could make it too easy to rule out someone as cop.
I respectfully disagree but I think our detailed dissection of probability has been a detriment to the new players staying engaged, and is hurting our collective scum hunting. Can we simply agree to merge roleblocked and targeted dead into "no result" and leave the chance of fake-cops claiming that at what it was D1?
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 30, 2013 3:18 am UTC

Again, Silknor I disagree with your reason to raise the numbers but it's not worth the discussion space. Suzaku is right.

About Eculc, I wanted the Chris' to do their analysis before I get too into it, but Eculc has made a lot of posts and has done almost zero scum hunting. You translated that into tunnel vision, but I don't think it is even that as he said very little about snark as well.

Until I see some more participation.

Unvote
Vote Carlington
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 30, 2013 3:26 am UTC

From the pronoun thread:
Carlington wrote:I am going to throw my hat in as well. I have played a few games of card!Mafia, so this shouldn't be a HUGE stretch. Thanks for the suggestion, Deva.
I am male, and prefer he/him/his. If you want to shorten my name, do not use "Carlton" or "Carling" because they are ugh. Abbreviate my name as "Chris" if it please ye.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 30, 2013 5:52 am UTC

Can you give your opinions on the other players? I realize you're busy, maybe just list your impressions even if you can't link to evidence. We need something to judge you by, and it's not like you and Madge are the only possible people to lynch today.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:57 am UTC

Carlington wrote:It scares me a little bit, because when I post, people start reading scum, and when I don't post, people accuse me of lurking and thus being scum. I can't seem to put a foot right. Maybe I'm just acting a little bit too cautious, but that's only because I'm trying so hard NOT to read scum. There is a very good reason for me to want to not read scum, though.
Everyone wants to avoid being lynched, but scum have a harder time acting town because they have to imagine what they would do if they were town and it's hard to model a perfect alternate reality self. For example I think Scum-Carlington would have been self conscious about admitting he is trying so hard to avoid looking scummy. Keep posting your raw thoughts and let us judge you.

Carlington wrote:That opinion may change, however, depending on how he reacts when I start posting more. Maybe.
I really want to keep my vote on you now out of perversity, but my intention was simply to get you to post. I didn't think you were in Mod-action zone yet, and I've seen plenty of new players avoid posting out of fear, where-as I post almost every time I check the thread to react to whats happened so far.

Unvote
Vote Christophoros
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:24 am UTC

Suzaku: Suzaku reads town for the most part, however I don't know that I believe his reason for lacking content - he can't post now, he has to go to a meeting, but looking at the timestamps, he's posting in this thread again 15 minutes later. Neutral, leaning slightly scum.
It struck me that I should reply about this. It is an unwritten rule that real life issues should never be lied about even for scum. Perhaps we should actually write that rule down... :roll: So assume Suzaku is being truthful about being busy in RL. What is your new evaluation?
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:29 am UTC

eculc wrote:as for scumhunting, we're not in much of a better position on that front today than D1 as there's not much we can learn from snark's lynch except that there were probably scum on his bandwagon.

That's an odd perspective to have if you are town. If the decision was between two townies then they don't care who they lynch.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:26 am UTC

Christophorus, You've completely ignored my request to give a read on each player, and you're the only one to do so. At least acknowledge my request and say why you're not bothering to. Do you think other people's lists were not useful?

Wam, I agree with Silknor and Chris, that quote doesn't seem very damning. Putting Snark at L-1 is only scummy if Eculc is scum. Consider my eyebrows raised.

Silknor wrote:I agree there's something to be learned from the lynching of the Snark. No one, myself included, seems to have tried so far though.
I included vote analysis in my big analysis post. Did you just skip it?
Silknor wrote:the assassin adds further incentive, especially since they can get townie brownie points for getting the assassin lynched).
Mafia would prefer the assassin live so that there are more threats to town to distract from the mafia on later days and since Snark seemed more likely to be an assassin then Eculc one would think scum would be on the Eculc wagon not the Snark wagon.

You are nitpicking my statement instead of addressing my point which is that it is very illogical of Eculc to conclude that scum are more likely to be on the Snark wagon then voting for him. Seems much more likely he is letting his secret knowledge seep through.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 01, 2013 5:46 am UTC

Silknor, I'll agree that my analysis was broad and shallow since that seems to be your point. But I was irked that you said no one had even tried.
Silknor wrote:For the purposes of indentification, scum is scum.
I've found that scum are happy to lynch scum and in voting analysis only consider a vote to be evidence that both players are not on a single scum team together.
Silknor wrote:So he made a correct statement, and then you attacked him for making a statement that he didn't make.
Well, if he was simply saying that a majority of players voted for Snark and therefore it's likely that one of the votes is scum then he was saying something completely empty even if technically true. So it's either likely false and scummy or it's active lurking and it's scummy.

@Madge: "Self preservation" is a terribly useless reason to vote. It tells us nothing and just encourages others to pile the votes onto you. If you want to convince us to let you live then you need to point out who is scum and why.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:58 am UTC

Wow, seriously, Silknor you are twisting everything I say and defending Eculc to a ridiculous extent and you've been doing it since the day started. If Silknor and Eculc aren't scumbuddies I will eat my hat. I'd lynch either of them at the moment but I think it'll be easier for others to agree that Eculc has been extremely scummy.

Unvote
Vote Eculc


If Madge gets lynched and flips town and I'm dead tomorrow lynch Eculc and Silknor. I'm a very experienced player and you should trust my reads. If I'm dead tomorrow I'll be confirmed town so don't forget to come back and follow this advice.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 01, 2013 9:57 am UTC

The reason I added the emphasis was that I had previously left an "If I die then X is scum" message and I was ignored and completely correct. Of course currently you can't know if you trust me. I meant if I die.

But seriously, look at how much Silknor is defending Eculc. Do you think Silknor is right?
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Feb 04, 2013 6:00 am UTC

Huh.

Anyway, IIAAC:
Spoiler:
I targeted Wam and got a town result.


I am not the chosen.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Feb 05, 2013 12:59 am UTC

Yeah, scum is pretty doomed at this point. We know Mafia don't have another hitman so they have at most one kill a night. That means 3 chances to lynch. If we did a mass claim we would likely have all unique roles with 2-3 vanilla town. The actual chosen is unique. So assuming we have 3 claimed VT and the chosen confirms all the power roles then we're left with 3 lynch candidates and 3 lynchs.

A mass claim would end the game with no more thought required from anyone. Since everyone's leaning that way anyway lets just not claim, it will certainly be a lot more interesting. The only benefit I can think of for the chosen claiming is to clear up the cop's sanity. The chosen knows exactly what kind of a cop we have and if we have a godfather or not. If there is not a godfather and there is a sane/insane cop then the chosen should claim and reveal that.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:49 am UTC

Well this has stagnated. Eculc and Wam are my top two scum list so I wanted to see how this played out. I'll do some rereading and evaluation in a few hours when I've got more time.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:00 am UTC

I took a look back at the vtotals for the lynch:
Final (unofficial) votals:

Christophoros - 2 (wam, Madge)
wam - 1 (Carlington)
Madge - 3 (Silknor, Christophoros, Bartimaeus)
eculc - 2 (Suzaku, BoomFrog)
Eculc could have voted for Christophoros, tying the votes, but he didn't. Although, if he had done that I would have switched to Madge since causing a tie is so clearly scummy. On the other hand, wam didn't vote for Eculc, if he and Madge had both switched Eculc would have been lynched saving Madge. Also intersting is that Madge didn't switch to eculc for "self preservation" even though she was happy to tie the vtotals with Christophoros vote.

All of that points to a Eculc-Madge scum team.

Eculc I'd like you to fully claim the variation. to prove your chosenness.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:23 am UTC

Well the doctor could claim to confirm Eculc but then we have essentially mass claimed. :p Lets just wait on that, Eculc will be confirmed or proven wrong in the next few nights If Eculc is still alive and no doctor has died by the last night then we can talk about claiming.

Assuming Eculc is confirmed then we should just lynch everyone left, Wam, Bartmaus and.. err... me. :D I don't really care the order, at this point I'm pretty sure Wam is scum.

Vote Wam
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:43 am UTC

I'm extremely sure of Carlington's townieness. I'd be very surprised if he is scum. He put in a good and sincere effort D2 when it really counted. Bartimaeus however has fallen off the map. He seemed townie D1 but he's really drifted into lurking and minimal content. Seems like scum who has given up.

I'll hold off voting for a bit more discussion but my mind is pretty much made up already.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:39 am UTC

Well if it's not Bart then it has to be Carlington. I suppose Eculc could be a lucky scum false-claiming chosen but that seems less likely then the possibility that I'm wrong about Carlington.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 15, 2013 4:19 am UTC

Well Carlington, from your view it shouldn't be that simple since I could be scum. So between Bart and I who do you think is scum and why?

modprod Bart?
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Feb 17, 2013 7:20 am UTC

We're all waiting on Bart.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:10 am UTC

Deadline in roughly a week. Five alive, Three to hammer!
So that's less then 3 days now. Alright, lets just ignore Bart and assume he is going to be mod killed.

That leaves four alive, which is traditionally time to No Lynch. The reason is that if we lynch a townie and then the mafia kills there's two left and that's a mafia win. So either way we only have one more chance to lynch. If we lynch now it's 1/4 that we win, but if we lynch later it's 1/3rd.

However, that logic doesn't hold up right now because it's already a 1/3rd chance since Christophoros is 100% confirmed town.

Carlington could be scum if Bart or I am the doctor. I still think he's townie from my reads on him and I'm pretty good at identifying noob townies because they are just so unrestricted with their thoughts. Noob scum are much more quite and reserved for fear of making a mistake.

Eculc could be scum if Snark was the real chosen and Eculc correctly guessed the setup. Or if Eculc was wrong about their being a doctor but no one has the ability to prove that false yet.

Actually, we probably should No Lynch anyway. It doesn't hurt our odds of catching scum but it will give us information about Bart's role which could confirm Eculc. So either Bart is getting modkilled and we should no lynch or he isn't getting mod killed and we should lynch him.

Vote Bart

Effectively a No Lynch if Bart is getting modkilled anyway.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun N4: Lurker Hammered!

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Feb 20, 2013 7:22 am UTC

I will be traveling in two days. I had planned this would be over by then.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:49 am UTC

Well, I'm not the doctor, I am just VT. Frankly it's been extremely obvious since D2 that Carlington is the doctor. That is why I've been defending him to the hilt since D2. I think every experienced player has know it which is why Wam, Suzaku, Eculc and I have never raised serious suspicion of his since D2. With that in mind, since Eculc claimed after the two cops revealed and he knew his own role he actually had all of the setup info. He took a gamble that Snark was the chosen and it paid off.

I dug up the quotes that tipped us all off to Carlington's role. Really no one can fake noobie town, it's just so adorably incompetent sometimes :p (no insult intended Carlington, this is what vanilla games are for. You have to gain experience by making mistakes.)

Carlington wrote:For example, do you think it would be likely, if we had a doctor, that they would have claimed by now? When does it become "safe" for different roles to start claiming, because that's something I'm not understanding at this point. Having said that, I've only ever played face-to-face vanilla mafia before in my life, so I'm still trying to understand power roles to begin with.

Alright, but how do town's power roles know that there's a doctor if the doctor never claims such until they're about to be lynched? Then town gets at best one night of protection before mafia NK's the doctor. I can't think of a better way to play it, but it seems like an awfully ineffective strategy.
If Carlington wasn't the doctor he would have asked about all the power roles strategies not just doctor. The focus on doctor was blatant.

Vote Eculc
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:52 am UTC

Ninja'd by Carlington. Well there ya go. Anyway, No Lynch isn't useful as it doesn't improve our odds. We are already at 50/50 chance to win. It doesn't get better then that. The Chris' are confirmed town. It's either me of Eculc.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:41 am UTC

Well I wasn't 100% sure. If Bart had flipped doctor then of course I would have lynched you. I really didn't expect that Eculc had successfully falseclaimed chosen. I thought the game would end after we lynched Bart, or at worst I would have been horribly wrong again and Bart was the doctor. This was the lest likely scenario I considered.

As to why scum hasn't killed you yet, it's always hard to guess the motives behind a NK but you have been a contender for being lynched and killing confirmed town is best for scum. I do have to ask why you didn't protect Silknor or Suzaku. I guess that really doesn't matter now though. Whoever you protected today is probably town, although even that is not 100% as scum may have withheld the kill.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 21, 2013 10:46 am UTC

Kinda expected some rebuttal from Eculc... oh well.

I'm flying to India tomorrow. Good luck with the decision.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:19 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Vote Eculc


I already voted.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 21, 2013 11:33 pm UTC

2/3rd auto loss if counterclaimed. But at that point with 1 mafia vs 7 town and 3 of those are confirmed town 1/3rd chance for almost autowin is a good risk. In hindsight I'd have done the same thing in his situation.

If Eculc isn't scum then why didn't Madge switch her vote onto him for "Self preservation" like she was so eager to do to you?
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:15 am UTC

At the time madge was happy to tie the votes by voting Chris but I changed my vote to eculc leaving madge in the lead again and eculc one vote behind her. Then she didn't change to Eculc despite being able to tie the votes and save herself.

And no lynch doesn't help because we can't possibly learn anything more. There are two choices and if you're going to lynch me and lose twenty dollars and my self respect tomorrow then just do it today. You and the other Chris need to come to a consensus.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:18 am UTC

FYI that was "lose the ga me" but this forum has an interesting filter.
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