1043: “Ablogalypse”

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J Thomas
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby J Thomas » Sat Apr 28, 2012 1:43 pm UTC

Dougal666 wrote:
philip1201 wrote:In other words, learn to use statistics before you start complaining about others using statistics wrong. Linear approximation is a valid method of estimation as long as you know how to handle it, which Randall does.

Oh my, the negativity.
A first order approximation of one third (one year out of three) of a clearly non-linear graph, and extrapolated to half that distance (six months)?


I'm really not clear what statistical approach is appropriate here. Ideally you could get the actual numbers rather than the normalized data. Google claims that if you download the data then they will give you relative standard errors. You could use that, if you trust them.

Looking at the fluctuation (it looks to me like they plot every two weeks but it could be weekly) it looks so regular that probably the numbers are pretty big and you don't need much statistical power to show that yes, something is happening.

So something changed in the last couple of years, and people are increasingly asking Google about tumblr, while they are asking Google about blogs a bit less than they used to. If that increase doesn't slow down, the tumblr searches will overtake the blog searches pretty soon.

Would it be better to model the tumblr data as exponential growth, or as two linear pieces? Do you care that much? A logistic model is probably better on theoretical grounds -- things which look like exponential growth often turn out logistic -- but how well could you tease that extra parameter from the noise?

I think the basic conclusion here is that something has changed. And if nothing else changes then it will keep going on the way it is now.
The Law of Fives is true. I see it everywhere I look for it.

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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby >-) » Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:15 pm UTC

Oh no... http://www.google.com/trends/?q=blog,+tumblr
It looks like they've bounced off each other.

iviv
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby iviv » Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:34 pm UTC

http://i.imgur.com/1B7nw.jpg

Its the 12th, and it came so close too!

gaga654
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby gaga654 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:39 am UTC

2 weeks later and it's not quite there; blog seems to be levelling out a bit, but with tumblr still increasing it should take the lead soon.

madaco
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby madaco » Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:02 am UTC

In the united states they crossed in november 2011.
I found my old forum signature to be awkward, so I'm changing it to this until I pick a better one.

arthurd006_5
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby arthurd006_5 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:53 am UTC

da Doctah wrote:As posted, this doesn't account for the as-yet unnamed social network buzzword that will emerge some time in the next six months and eclipse all the others.

Either I'm not paying attention, or it's late.

arthurd006_5
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby arthurd006_5 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:18 am UTC

>-) wrote:Oh no...
It looks like they've bounced off each other.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q= ... 70m&cmpt=q
Yes, the future has been delayed, at least temporarily. In my copy of the report, label A suggests that this is an action by Twitter.

senor_cardgage
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby senor_cardgage » Fri Nov 02, 2012 4:06 pm UTC

webgiant wrote:
BrianB wrote:
Djehutynakht wrote:So the Mayans were two and a fraction of a month off.


Actually, it is my understanding that the Mayans had no concept of leap years and that if you subtract out all the leap days since that time, we are already past the end of the Mayan calendar.

No such luck. The calculation that puts December 2012 as the location of what on the Mayan Long Count Calendar would be the end of the 13th b'ak'tun allows for the fact that they had no concept of leap year days, as in December 2012 is what you get when you add leap year days back in.


The Mayan calendar didn't account for leap years because it doesn't measure years at all, so whether or not it accounts for leap years is irrelevant.

It's more like converting Fahrenheit to Celsius or kelvin. There's a conversion where a specific number in one translates to a specific number in the other, but the quantity measured by each unit is completely different.


Yeah, I know I'm responding to a months-old post that was already addressed, but I felt like adding my two cents anyway (which you can convert to any currency you'd like). Besides, when you factor in all the leap years the Mayans, the Myans, the Myasses, the Means and the Medians ignored, then this post really was made before either of the above.

miniyou
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby miniyou » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:20 am UTC

http://i.imgur.com/Ygttn.png

So it was accurate within less than a month, approximately 10 months in the future. Impressive!

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AvatarIII
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby AvatarIII » Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:21 pm UTC

miniyou wrote:http://i.imgur.com/Ygttn.png

So it was accurate within less than a month, approximately 10 months in the future. Impressive!


it would have been more accurate had "tumblr" not dipped and "blog" not peaked just after "A"

it actually looks like they have been back and forth regularly for a while, when looking at only the last 90 days, and therefore using data for every day instead of just monthly data http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q= ... 3-m&cmpt=q
and using weekly data they actually drew more-or-less level at the beginning of august
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q= ... 2-m&cmpt=q

pefty
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby pefty » Tue Mar 10, 2015 5:37 am UTC

Stop the (online) presses, tumblr just surpassed internet itself:
[[new user, not permitted to post relevant google trends url]]

I guess this means we're all going to start saying we need a faster tumblr connection to use Microsoft Tumblr Explorer, and we'll have TSPs (tumblr service providers) to buy them from.

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SuicideJunkie
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby SuicideJunkie » Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:20 pm UTC

March 2015:
Brazil and France are the last major strongholds of blagging on the planet.
The defenses of North America and Australia have tumbld, and Brazil is under siege.

Morale is falling and the supplies of spellcheck have been cut off, but as long as we can type there is still hope!


PS:
Internet still looks to be well ahead of both to me.
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=blog%2C%20tumblr%2C%20internet&cmpt=q&tz=

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ParisNorway
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Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Postby ParisNorway » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:44 pm UTC

So, Verizon sold Tumblr today. The buyer is Automattic, owner of Wordpress.com.
Verizon bought Tumblr for $1.1bn, sold it for $3 million.

https://www.extremetech.com/internet/29 ... -3-million
The Road goes ever on and on
Out from the door where it began.


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