1324:"Weather"

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keithl
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1324:"Weather"

Postby keithl » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:18 am UTC

Image
Title Text: At least if you're really into, like, Turkish archaeology, store clerks aren't like "hey, how 'bout those Derinkuyu underground cities!" when they're trying to be polite.

Last week, I read Annalee Newitz's book "Scatter, Adapt, Remember", which discusses both weather science and Derinkuyu underground cities.
Last edited by keithl on Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:19 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

Helldrake
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Helldrake » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:19 am UTC

Can we get some weather geeks in here to clarify what he's saying?

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby rhomboidal » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:23 am UTC

The hardest part is hearing someone say "So much for global warming..." and having to politely chuckle instead of having a total geek freakout.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby keithl » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:24 am UTC

Helldrake wrote:Can we get some weather geeks in here to clarify what he's saying?

18 mile grid Global Forecast System???

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby anschelsc » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:49 am UTC

Am I the only one who thought of that scene from Groundhog Day?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAu6TsCK-KM

jpk
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby jpk » Fri Jan 31, 2014 7:39 am UTC

No. They don't. Really, if the worst thing you have to put up with in your day is "people don't care about your personal obsessions" then you're doing A-OK.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby zamfi » Fri Jan 31, 2014 7:47 am UTC

keithl wrote:18 mile grid Global Forecast System???


I think you're right that GFS is the global forecast system. My guess on 18Z is that it refers to the forecast made at 6pm Zulu time, that is, 6pm GMT/UTC.

I assume verify refers to the forecast coming true?

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby jpk » Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:23 am UTC

Helldrake wrote:Can we get some weather geeks in here to clarify what he's saying?



If you care, you already know.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby sondre99v » Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:52 am UTC

zamfi wrote:
keithl wrote:18 mile grid Global Forecast System???


I think you're right that GFS is the global forecast system. My guess on 18Z is that it refers to the forecast made at 6pm Zulu time, that is, 6pm GMT/UTC.

I assume verify refers to the forecast coming true?


GFS (Global Forcast System) is a numerical weather simulation. It is run four times per day, and indeed 18z refers to the forcast made at 18:00. 960MB refers to a pressure of 960 millibars, wich is quite low.

Source: http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWal ... eneral.htm

TheEngineer
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby TheEngineer » Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:00 am UTC

960MB of weather? That's nearly 1GB. There hasn't been that much weather since the 1970s.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Pfhorrest » Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:04 am UTC

Around my parts here in SoCal we haven't had anything close to a gig of weather over the past century cumulatively. Unless you count fire as weather, in which case yeah we got plenty of that.
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby orthogon » Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:47 am UTC

Pfhorrest wrote:Around my parts here in SoCal we haven't had anything close to a gig of weather over the past century cumulatively. Unless you count fire as weather, in which case yeah we got plenty of that.

The Rolling Stones must be close to a gig of gigs. A gigagig, if you will.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Klear » Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:54 am UTC

orthogon wrote:
Pfhorrest wrote:Around my parts here in SoCal we haven't had anything close to a gig of weather over the past century cumulatively. Unless you count fire as weather, in which case yeah we got plenty of that.

The Rolling Stones must be close to a gig of gigs. A gigagig, if you will.


*giggles*

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Brandesianisme » Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:19 am UTC

jpk wrote:
Helldrake wrote:Can we get some weather geeks in here to clarify what he's saying?



If you care, you already know.

What about us stupid people who just wanna learn a little extra?

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Garnasha » Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:21 am UTC

Could we change the subtitle to "x geeks have it tough" for any x where x is some subject most people have a casual interest in? For instance, once you start geeking out over detailed specs of smartphones (voltages, clocks, wiring details like cache size/speed or instruction sets) you get pretty much the same reaction from someone who just remarked the brandPhone n+1 looks pretty neat.

jpk wrote:If you care, you already know.
That's... actually a worse response to a question than "just f-ing google it". Just as unhelpful, with a good helping of snobbish passive-aggression thrown in, without the justification of getting tired of people asking google-able questions. Have a good look at http://xkcd.com/1053/ . The type of knowledge (and people who should know it) is different, but the underlying message "it's more fun to teach people things than make them feel bad about their ignorance" applies very much.

Thank you everyone who supplied info about the GFS. Next question: is weathergeek not specifying when that 960mB is predicted for because the comic's not that detailed, or because there's an implied standard offset from the time the prediction was made at (18z) which he assumes the listener knows he's talking about when he doesn't give a specific offset? And could we get a link to a pretty picture site for jetstreams?

I think the rolling stones might've done a few teras by now (that's kilogigs). Exas are going to be hard, a million performances?

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby orthogon » Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:50 am UTC

Garnasha wrote:I think the rolling stones might've done a few teras by now (that's kilogigs). Exas are going to be hard, a million performances?

Yes, looks like they passed the 2T (=2kilogig) mark back in 2006. They must have easily played a Meganote on stage.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Ponyhome » Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:10 am UTC

I was very confused by the 960 megabars. That would be nuts indeed. It would also mean the end of life on earth. I don't think the atmosphere hits those numbers even on Venus. On the plus side, you could really fill up your SCUBA tanks.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby LambdaBeta » Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:05 pm UTC

I'm with Brandesianisme, I often end up reading the latest comic and then spending hours trolling wikipedia and related links on a learning spree. However, wikipedia tends to be less helpful when it comes to getting a background knowledge on how an entire field (like meteorology) operates. I would love a site that explains how to use the GFS to estimate weather for ourselves. Anybody know of any links to a sort of 'Do your own weather forecast" tutorial?

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby cellocgw » Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:48 pm UTC

keithl wrote:Last week, I read Annalee Newitz's book "Scatter, Adapt, Remember", which discusses both weather science and Derinkuyu underground cities.


Wondering how "weather" and "Derinkuyu" fare in google games...

Googlefight!
weather: 1.45E9
Derinkuyu: 1.03e5
"weather science": 1.8E4
"Derinkuyu underground cities" : 1.78E2

While I'm at it:
googlefight: 1.42E4
bingfight: 1.91E2
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby cellocgw » Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:50 pm UTC

TheEngineer wrote:960MB of weather? That's nearly 1GB. There hasn't been that much weather since the 1970s.


In that case... 64K should be enough for anyone. Anyone frozen solid in a pool of liquid nitrogen, anyway.
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Klear » Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:11 pm UTC

cellocgw wrote:
TheEngineer wrote:960MB of weather? That's nearly 1GB. There hasn't been that much weather since the 1970s.


In that case... 64K should be enough for anyone. Anyone frozen solid in a pool of liquid nitrogen, anyway.


I accidentally 93Mb of weather. Is this dangerous?

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Himself » Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:33 pm UTC

I'd be freaking out too if there was a forecast of 960 mbar. That is insane.
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby TheStormRanger » Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:41 pm UTC

LambdaBeta wrote:I'm with Brandesianisme, I often end up reading the latest comic and then spending hours trolling wikipedia and related links on a learning spree. However, wikipedia tends to be less helpful when it comes to getting a background knowledge on how an entire field (like meteorology) operates. I would love a site that explains how to use the GFS to estimate weather for ourselves. Anybody know of any links to a sort of 'Do your own weather forecast" tutorial?


http://www.theweatherprediction.com/ <-- This gives a great overview of a lot of weather information.

There's not a great way, necessarily to "do your own weather forecast" without having at least some background from the site above. You could do a rip and read from the models (for instance look at the GFS and NAM MOS) but without knowing a little bit about why the models are showing what they're showing, you're not necessarily going to have a great performance.

If you want to really have fun, check out the storm discussion threads over at AmericanWx...over there, you'll see all sorts of terms and acronyms: NAM, GFS, Euro, Ukie, GEM, GGEM, CMC, JMA, NAVGEM, SREF...and those are just some of the model suites we look at.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby ucim » Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:45 pm UTC

TheEngineer wrote:960MB of weather? That's nearly 1GB. There hasn't been that much weather since the 1970s.
Actually, I'm more concerned that with global warming and the resultant expansion of the troposphere, the weather density will decrease, and it will take a lot more space to hold 960MB of weather. We'll need to terraform just to find a place to store all that weather.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby alcore » Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:50 pm UTC

I used to work for the Weather service... I not only know what he meant, I know how to decode the raw weather product feed from the NWS.

This sort of thing was among the many basic lessons I had to learn in life about how normal (apparently functional) people just aren't literate in most of the areas where I am literate.

I still take pride in not knowing how to decode a Starbucks menu and never having viewed more than a 15 second slice of any "Real Housewives" tv show. But it's amazing how often these deliberate intellectual firewalls make ME feel illiterate when dealing with normal people.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Elroydb » Fri Jan 31, 2014 3:00 pm UTC

So what is this about underground Turkish cities? That sounds pretty interesting o_O

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby DougDean » Fri Jan 31, 2014 3:25 pm UTC

anschelsc wrote:Am I the only one who thought of that scene from Groundhog Day?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAu6TsCK-KM

Nope. Sorry, Randall, you were beaten to the joke by Harold Ramis and Bill Murray. You have him on geekiness, but he had you on the funny hand gestures and general snarkiness.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Helldrake » Fri Jan 31, 2014 3:50 pm UTC

sondre99v wrote:
zamfi wrote:
keithl wrote:18 mile grid Global Forecast System???


I think you're right that GFS is the global forecast system. My guess on 18Z is that it refers to the forecast made at 6pm Zulu time, that is, 6pm GMT/UTC.

I assume verify refers to the forecast coming true?


GFS (Global Forcast System) is a numerical weather simulation. It is run four times per day, and indeed 18z refers to the forcast made at 18:00. 960MB refers to a pressure of 960 millibars, wich is quite low.

Source: http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWal ... eneral.htm



Thanks a lot!

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby jpk » Fri Jan 31, 2014 4:22 pm UTC

Garnasha wrote:Could we change the subtitle to "x geeks have it tough" for any x where x is some subject most people have a casual interest in? For instance, once you start geeking out over detailed specs of smartphones (voltages, clocks, wiring details like cache size/speed or instruction sets) you get pretty much the same reaction from someone who just remarked the brandPhone n+1 looks pretty neat.


I think it's the person who just made an innocent remark about subject x and got a forty-five minute monologue that's got it tough.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby cellocgw » Fri Jan 31, 2014 4:29 pm UTC

jpk wrote:
Garnasha wrote:Could we change the subtitle to "x geeks have it tough" for any x where x is some subject most people have a casual interest in? For instance, once you start geeking out over detailed specs of smartphones (voltages, clocks, wiring details like cache size/speed or instruction sets) you get pretty much the same reaction from someone who just remarked the brandPhone n+1 looks pretty neat.


I think it's the person who just made an innocent remark about subject x and got a forty-five minute monologue that's got it tough.


Maybe "De Disputandibus Non Gustandam" (very bad Latin :oops: , intended to be idiomatic for "when it comes to arguing, it's in bad taste" :mrgreen: )
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby orthogon » Fri Jan 31, 2014 4:32 pm UTC

jpk wrote:
Garnasha wrote:Could we change the subtitle to "x geeks have it tough" for any x where x is some subject most people have a casual interest in? For instance, once you start geeking out over detailed specs of smartphones (voltages, clocks, wiring details like cache size/speed or instruction sets) you get pretty much the same reaction from someone who just remarked the brandPhone n+1 looks pretty neat.


I think it's the person who just made an innocent remark about subject x and got a forty-five minute monologue that's got it tough.

It all depends whether the hairy one knows that the hairless one is a weather geek, and whether the hairless one knows that he knows (or doesn't know).

Knows/Knows: the questioner is implicitly saying "you know all about weather, explain what's going on", and shouldn't be too surprised at the complexity and detail of the answer.
Doesn't know / Doesn't know: Honest mistake for the above situation
Doesn't know / Knows: Bald guy should assume that the question is a general smalltalk and answer accordingly, perhaps throwing in "actually I know quite a lot about weather, if you're interested"
Knows/Doesn't Know: Same as previous situation

Pseudo-edit: Actually I think it might depend on the third-order knowledge, because that would affect whether/how Mr Hirsute would ask the question. :?
Real edit: Removed some left-over words
Last edited by orthogon on Fri Jan 31, 2014 5:35 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby rmsgrey » Fri Jan 31, 2014 5:08 pm UTC

orthogon wrote:
jpk wrote:
Garnasha wrote:Could we change the subtitle to "x geeks have it tough" for any x where x is some subject most people have a casual interest in? For instance, once you start geeking out over detailed specs of smartphones (voltages, clocks, wiring details like cache size/speed or instruction sets) you get pretty much the same reaction from someone who just remarked the brandPhone n+1 looks pretty neat.


I think it's the person who just made an innocent remark about subject x and got a forty-five minute monologue that's got it tough.

It all depends whether the hairy one knows that the hairless one is a weather geek, and whether the hairless one knows that he knows (or doesn't know). If it's "yes" to both, then If it's a "no", then

Knows/Knows: the questioner is implicitly saying "you know all about weather, explain what's going on", and shouldn't be too surprised at the complexity and detail of the answer.
Doesn't know / Doesn't know: Honest mistake for the above situation
Doesn't know / Knows: Bald guy should assume that the question is a general smalltalk and answer accordingly, perhaps throwing in "actually I know quite a lot about weather, if you're interested"
Knows/Doesn't Know: Same as previous situation

Pseudo-edit: Actually I think it might depend on the third-order knowledge, because that would affect whether/how Mr Hirsute would ask the question. :?


But do either of them have blue eyes?

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby addams » Fri Jan 31, 2014 5:10 pm UTC

Brandesianisme wrote:
jpk wrote:
Helldrake wrote:Can we get some weather geeks in here to clarify what he's saying?



If you care, you already know.

What about us stupid people who just wanna learn a little extra?

Be careful.
http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/weather-underground/
Weather can be dangerous.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/
This has the same name and is not dangerous.

I have no idea what he is talking about.
Yes. The jet streams are always wicked strong and they do some interesting things.
http://earth.nullschool.net
Click on the word Earth and play with it.

No. I can not tell you what the labels mean in Feet or Meters above the surface.
The labels leave me looking at that, the way a dog looks at a telephone projecting its master voice.
Yes. It seems very familiar.
ummm. It is not labeled in a way that is familar to me.


When people play and ask questions, they learn.
I love this one!
It is in Black & White.
Boring.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

But that view does allow the observer to make up their own mind.
Why to you need that cute girl in a cute dress to read it to you?

You don't!
Turn off the volume and just watch the cute girl.

The navy site has a tutorial.
It is dry reading.

For the interested Commoner, what does the Scientific Community have to offer?
Back in the Bad Old Days before Barometers and Thermometers, the best and the brightest watched the sky.

Anyone can watch the sky.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud#Summ ... ed_weather
fixed that for me.
Second try...Why??
(phew) Better.
Spoiler:
Did I actually insert an advert for a navy ship named Cloud?
tisk-tisk. Fixed it.


Tiny little weater rant.
Spoiler:
It is so easy for nearly everyone, that stays put, to have a weather station of their very own.
Wind speed and direction, at ground leavel or darn near.
The wind gauge needs to be above the grass.

Thermometer.
Some of the instuments of today, transmit data.
You don't have to go out there! How great is that?

Barameter! The realationship between that number and the Rocking of The World is very interesting.

Humidity is fun, too.
I have never had any luck with measuring rain.
You?

You want to learn weather?
Weather has a lot of dull stuff, too.

Like any discipline.
It is boring, when done correctly.

And; If you are not using the same labels, it is funny!
If it is 10 degrees out there, "Will you need a sweater?"

Edit:
http://www.meteorologynews.com/2009/06/ ... asperatus/
weather produces some pretty pictures.
we can't have pictures without it.

how exciting! A new cloud.
all the same old stuff, rearranged.

Can it be done in a Lab?
So funny.

There is some guy, somewhere making snow in a Lab.
Another Edit:
As long as this is a link heavy post;
This might be a good place to learn about Weather.
http://www.rmets.org

They may have an archive.
Those are interesting.

Have fun out there!
Last edited by addams on Fri Feb 07, 2014 1:39 am UTC, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:13 pm UTC

Himself wrote:I'd be freaking out too if there was a forecast of 960 mbar. That is insane.


Indeed. IIRC, 960 miilibars is tropical storm kind of pressure.
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby lil'todd » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:20 pm UTC

This is my first post so I'll try not to break too many rules.

I graduated in Atmospheric Science. Most people don't refer to it as the Jet-Stream layer although the strongest winds will be at approximately 250 mb (millibars) or hPA (hecta Pascals) for those so inclined to use SI units. This layer is the tropopause, where the Troposphere meets the Stratosphere. It gets a little more technical but that's the general idea.

18z GFS is the 6:00 pm UTC, GMT run of the Global Forecast System. You can see these model runs yourself if you would like at weather dot utah dot edu (no w w w in front or you'll get sent to the wrong place). I know I can't post links yet so you'll have to look it up yourself.

960 mb is Hurricane or really big (record breaking) extra-tropical cyclone (normal storm "low") like reading, or it could just be for a location a few hundred feet above sea-level.

The GFS is just one model. I prefer GFS for timing and the NAM (North American Model) for precip.

I've been lurking the fora for forever (2008), it's nice to post a comment finally!

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Jackpot777 » Fri Jan 31, 2014 7:04 pm UTC

Ponyhome wrote:I was very confused by the 960 megabars. That would be nuts indeed. It would also mean the end of life on earth. I don't think the atmosphere hits those numbers even on Venus. On the plus side, you could really fill up your SCUBA tanks.


You. I like you.

960 million atmosphere pressure. 9.6 x 108. That's around the low estimates for the pressure at the center of the Sun.

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Pfhorrest » Fri Jan 31, 2014 7:35 pm UTC

ucim wrote:Actually, I'm more concerned that with global warming and the resultant expansion of the troposphere, the weather density will decrease, and it will take a lot more space to hold 960MB of weather. We'll need to terraform just to find a place to store all that weather.

I don't think your climate "science" is nearly accurate enough to predict that we'd need to precisely teraform. According to your own figures, interpreted correctly, the required adjustments could range anywhere from a mere gigaform all the way up to a petaform. But Exxon-Mobile has paid me generously to conclude that most likely a mere megaform will be required at worst, and that can be conducted easily over the course of the next millennium, one kiloform per year.
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby ucim » Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:18 pm UTC

Pfhorrest wrote:According to your own figures, interpreted correctly, the required adjustments could range anywhere from a mere gigaform all the way up to a petaform.
Is there a bureaucracy anywhere that can handle that kind of paperwork?

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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby jpk » Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:50 pm UTC

Garnasha wrote:
jpk wrote:If you care, you already know.
That's... actually a worse response to a question than "just f-ing google it". Just as unhelpful, with a good helping of snobbish passive-aggression thrown in, without the justification of getting tired of people asking google-able questions.


Actually, it's just an observation: people who care about this stuff have gone out and learned about it. If you didn't care about this yesterday, it's pretty certain that you don't actually care about it today and you're still not going to care about it tomorrow. That is, it's a safe bet that before you read this comic, you were aware that there is weather and that it can be studied in compulsive, eyewatering detail. That's not news. I'm assuming that you're not so desperately shallow and sad that you become hugely interested in things just because Munroe does a comic about them, so if you weren't fanatically interested in those eyewatering details yesterday, you're not interested in them today. I'm also assuming that you're capable of operating in internet, and smart enough to learn about things that interest you, and motivated enough to pursue your interests at some point in your life - or, if any of those things are not true, than you're still not smart enough or motivated enough to learn about these things now.

Put more simply: if you were interested in those details before you read the comic, you're still interested, and you've satisfied your curiosity (by assumption, you're not too stupid or lazy to have done so previously). If you weren't interested enough to learn about those details, nothing has happened to change that fact. The only assumptions we can make which change this reasoning are incredibly rude ones and I'm not going to assume them. So, by courtesy, "if you care, you already know".

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Himself
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Re: 1324:"Weather"

Postby Himself » Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:11 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:
Himself wrote:I'd be freaking out too if there was a forecast of 960 mbar. That is insane.


Indeed. IIRC, 960 miilibars is tropical storm kind of pressure.

960 millibars is equivalent to a category 2-3 hurricane, actually. Lowest pressure recorded for a land-based system in the US is 953 mb.
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