1577: "Advent"

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1577: "Advent"

Postby Coyne » Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:01 am UTC

Image

Alt text: The few dozen doors that have little Christmas trees on them are a nice touch.

I find this a little disturbing because I would need about twice that many doors. Okay, I exaggerate a little: right now, I just need six more columns, but in a while...
In all fairness...

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Showsni » Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:10 am UTC

The perfect baby shower present!

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Kalium_Puceon » Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:17 am UTC

This makes me think of the few dozen watches people have made that are supposed to calculate your life expectancy and show you a countdown. I imagine it just has a massive set of actuarial tables and you put in your habits and behaviours.
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby StClair » Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:19 am UTC

Just to get an early start on the math, so everyone else doesn't have to work it out themselves:

7 days x 10 (weeks) per block.
20 blocks in a row, so 4 x 50 weeks (~1 year), thus ~ 4 years per row.
12 rows, so very approximately 48 years.
... remaining.
Statistically speaking, of course. No guarantees express or implied.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby tho74 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:27 am UTC

I like this one. It reminds me of a gift I made to a friend of mine: A bouquet of flowers, number matching womens life expectancy in years. Then, just before handing it over to her, I "remembered" that she already lived up some of the years, so I removed the appropriate number of blossoms.
After that I "remembered" that, as a smoker, her life expectancy differs from the median, and I removed another couple of blossoms. However, the remaining flowers were really nice ;-)

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Sjö » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:08 am UTC

And you're still friends?
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby fluffysheap » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:15 am UTC

The unsettling part of this for me is that the grid formed by the calendar makes the guy look like just a bunch of disconnected lines.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Copper Bezel » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:33 am UTC

Sjö wrote:And you're still friends?

Let's be honest, a bouquet of 85 flowers is pretty tacky. I'd think the correction must have been an improvement. Then again, I smoke.
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby sfmans » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:13 am UTC

I hereby claim first dibs on the new religion of PorteFermez; the central article of faith is that I can grant you eternal life by persuading you that if you don't open the door, you don't remove that day from your life expectancy.

Call this number now, please have your bank details ready.

Spoiler:
I would have said that I was Pope of PorteFermez, but that would set the Time thread crowd off and we're still sweeping up and redecorating after the last time they broke out of the OTT ...

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby keithl » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:39 am UTC

StClair wrote:Just to get an early start on the math, so everyone else doesn't have to work it out themselves:
7 days x 10 (weeks) per block. 20 blocks in a row, so 4 x 50 weeks (~1 year), thus ~ 4 years per row. 12 rows, so very approximately 48 years.

Closer to 46 years. 20*12*7*10=16800. Using a calculator, 16800/365.25 = 45.9958, or 16800=365*46+10. That can be exactly 46 calendar years if you start this Advent calendar on December 1, 2060 , and end it on November 30, 2106, using the Gregorian leap year irregularity.

46 years is identical to 48 years by Fermi estimation, however.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby frwld » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:54 am UTC

So life expectancy is 46 normal years plus 10 days (including 11-12 leap days), or 1-2 days short of 46 average years. That's apparently much less than the 80-something years of life someone born in the western world today can expect (unincluding future world wars, mass diseases and godly caused apocalypses, for which there is not yet a scientific consensus amongs astrologists, fortune tellers and televangelists). So whose life expectancy is it instead?

The life expectancy of an average person already living in the western world as of today? I guess that rest life expectancy is much lesser than 46 years, giving the lots of baby boomers outweighting the relatively few babies born today.

The life expectancy globally? Nope, that's still in the 70-somethings (or already, to be glad.)

So I don't know whose life expectancy it is. But whose life expectancy it is whoever, their death expectancy is September 12, 1961. That's a monday. So people die on mondays per average, but I guess some will still die on other weekdays, in accordancy with the gauss error function.
Last edited by frwld on Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:22 am UTC, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby tho74 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:55 am UTC

And you're still friends?

Yes, she had the same sense of humour :-) (Maybe I should have added some flowers for that. AFAIK, good humour helps to keep blood pressure in check, and laughing itself is said to be a very healthy exercise...)

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby The Moomin » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:54 am UTC

And behind every window is a single frame from the "Time" strip.
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Echo244 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:57 am UTC

At least it seems to be one of those advent calendars with chocolates in, rather than just inspiring seasonal imagery.
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby StClair » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:01 am UTC

keithl wrote:
StClair wrote:Just to get an early start on the math, so everyone else doesn't have to work it out themselves:
7 days x 10 (weeks) per block. 20 blocks in a row, so 4 x 50 weeks (~1 year), thus ~ 4 years per row. 12 rows, so very approximately 48 years.

Closer to 46 years. 20*12*7*10=16800. Using a calculator, 16800/365.25 = 45.9958, or 16800=365*46+10. That can be exactly 46 calendar years if you start this Advent calendar on December 1, 2060 , and end it on November 30, 2106, using the Gregorian leap year irregularity.

46 years is identical to 48 years by Fermi estimation, however.


I bow to your superior/more thorough calculation. I like to think I was a little closer than Fermi estimation, though. :p

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby rmsgrey » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:18 am UTC

Echo244 wrote:At least it seems to be one of those advent calendars with chocolates in, rather than just inspiring seasonal imagery.


Or uninspiring seasonal imagery...

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby orthogon » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:41 am UTC

rmsgrey wrote:
Echo244 wrote:At least it seems to be one of those advent calendars with chocolates in, rather than just inspiring seasonal imagery.


Or uninspiring seasonal imagery...

Cue discussion of the effect on life expectancy of eating a chocolate every day. (Not to mention daily exposure to cutesy religious iconography).

Why didn't Randall save this one for December? I don't need to be reminded of Christmas in mid September.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby jgh » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:57 am UTC

An advent calendar is a countdown from when you receive it. So, I've got until I'm 92. That'll do me.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby speising » Mon Sep 14, 2015 10:21 am UTC

frwld wrote:So life expectancy is 46 normal years plus 10 days (including 11-12 leap days), or 1-2 days short of 46 average years. That's apparently much less than the 80-something years of life someone born in the western world today can expect (unincluding future world wars, mass diseases and godly caused apocalypses, for which there is not yet a scientific consensus amongs astrologists, fortune tellers and televangelists). So whose life expectancy is it instead?

The life expectancy of an average person already living in the western world as of today? I guess that rest life expectancy is much lesser than 46 years, giving the lots of baby boomers outweighting the relatively few babies born today.

The life expectancy globally? Nope, that's still in the 70-somethings (or already, to be glad.)

So I don't know whose life expectancy it is. But whose life expectancy it is whoever, their death expectancy is September 12, 1961. That's a monday. So people die on mondays per average, but I guess some will still die on other weekdays, in accordancy with the gauss error function.

This is Randall's calendar, who is nearly 31. So his life expectancy is ~77, according to this strip.

And i don't know why you think this comic points to a time 54 years in the past...

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Neil_Boekend » Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:32 am UTC

sfmans wrote:
Spoiler:
I would have said that I was Pope of PorteFermez, but that would set the Time thread crowd off and we're still sweeping up and redecorating after the last time they broke out of the OTT ...

Spoiler:
What gives you the odd idea that we don't open spoilers? Besides, one additional pope isn't going to make much of a difference: we already have 2370 popes at this point in Time. We beat you with superior numbers anyway.
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby orthogon » Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:33 am UTC

sfmans wrote:I hereby claim first dibs on the new religion of PorteFermez; the central article of faith is that I can grant you eternal life by persuading you that if you don't open the door, you don't remove that day from your life expectancy.

Not to be confused with the rival PorteFermée movement.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby cellocgw » Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:38 am UTC

sfmans wrote:I hereby claim first dibs on the new religion of PorteFermez; the central article of faith is that I can grant you eternal life by persuading you that if you don't open the door, you don't remove that day from your life expectancy.

Call this number now, please have your bank details ready.

Spoiler:
I would have said that I was Pope of PorteFermez, but that would set the Time thread crowd off and we're still sweeping up and redecorating after the last time they broke out of the OTT ...


Spoiler:
Too late. We OTTers are everywhere, in your needle-pulled-things and your basements and your Life-Advent Calendars.


Oh, and also "Life is like a giant advent calendar. Open a day and you never know what you'll get." Lordy how I hate that freakin' movie.
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby stzein » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:12 pm UTC

I'm not sure which I would find most unbearable; the idea that I may not get to open all the boxes, or the idea that I may get stuck without any more boxes to open. Would that be my cue to commit suicide?

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Locoluis » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:26 pm UTC

stzein wrote:I'm not sure which I would find most unbearable; the idea that I may not get to open all the boxes, or the idea that I may get stuck without any more boxes to open. Would that be my cue to commit suicide?


In the last case, you need a newer calendar.

Much better (except for paranoid privacy freaks and hypochondriacs): An electronic, periodically-updating calendar which grows or shrinks based on your daily habits and other data Google already knows about you.
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby gmalivuk » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:47 pm UTC

I'm 100% certain that more than paranoid "freaks" would be bothered by a continuously updating life expectancy readout.
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Whizbang » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:50 pm UTC

orthogon wrote:Why didn't Randall save this one for December? I don't need to be reminded of Christmas in mid September.


Don't you, though? DON'T YOU!?

Spoiler:
No. No you don't.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby mathmannix » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:11 pm UTC

orthogon wrote:
rmsgrey wrote:
Echo244 wrote:At least it seems to be one of those advent calendars with chocolates in

Cue discussion of the effect on life expectancy of eating a chocolate every day.

If there's a chocolate in each of those tiny squares, it's probably an M&M Mini. (Or maybe a single chocolate sprinkle! Those are tiny boxes...)
And since a single regular M&M has around 3 (or 5) calories (depending on the source I could find online), each mini probably has less than a calorie. (I couldn't find a source for the calories in a single mini, or the number of Mini's per ounce which would also help...)

Anyway, a[n additional] calorie of chocolate per day is not going to make the difference of a whelk in a supernova. It's a moo point!

orthogon wrote:Why didn't Randall save this one for December? I don't need to be reminded of Christmas in mid September.

Then don't go shopping anywhere...
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby rmsgrey » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:28 pm UTC

Whizbang wrote:
orthogon wrote:Why didn't Randall save this one for December? I don't need to be reminded of Christmas in mid September.


Don't you, though? DON'T YOU!?


Everyone knows that mid-September is when the season changes from Back to School to Halloween...

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby richP » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:53 pm UTC

stzein wrote:I'm not sure which I would find most unbearable; the idea that I may not get to open all the boxes, or the idea that I may get stuck without any more boxes to open. Would that be my cue to commit suicide?

Don't worry, the last box contains a cyanide capsule instead of a chocolate.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Diadem » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:24 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:I'm 100% certain that more than paranoid "freaks" would be bothered by a continuously updating life expectancy readout.

Actually that would be kinda cool. I wonder how much my life expectancy changes from drinking a glass of cola, and if knowing that number will help in making me drink fewer of them.
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby EricDahlstrom » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:39 pm UTC

Sunday, September 11, 2061: "Randall, Have a nice day!" :D

(Don't worry, we will have scanned your brain, and uploaded it to my iPad by then!)
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Neil_Boekend » Mon Sep 14, 2015 3:02 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:
gmalivuk wrote:I'm 100% certain that more than paranoid "freaks" would be bothered by a continuously updating life expectancy readout.

Actually that would be kinda cool. I wonder how much my life expectancy changes from drinking a glass of cola, and if knowing that number will help in making me drink fewer of them.

I would want one and be freaked out by it
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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby flymousechiu » Mon Sep 14, 2015 3:16 pm UTC

What if behind every seven doors there is an What if? article of excellent quality? I certainly wouldn't mind that... I have been missing them a lot.

edit notes: added more links to the articles I loved.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby yakkoTDI » Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:04 pm UTC

orthogon wrote:Cue discussion of the effect on life expectancy of eating a chocolate every day.


Assuming a small, good quality chocolate and no allergies to it the life expectancy would probably go up. I know I would be happier getting a delicious chocolate everyday and happy people theoretically live longer.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Moonfish » Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:40 pm UTC

I’ve only got 30 or 40 years left on this planet. I need to find other people interested in the same problems I am so we can solve as many as possible.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Moonfish » Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:46 pm UTC

I hope the calendar is going left to right bottom to top. I’m not sure I’ll be able to bend over to reach the bottom row every day when I’m 68 to 74 years old.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Moonfish » Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:48 pm UTC

Is there a special calcium enriched chocolate treat for me the day I hit menopause?

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby DanD » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:49 pm UTC

yakkoTDI wrote:
orthogon wrote:Cue discussion of the effect on life expectancy of eating a chocolate every day.


Assuming a small, good quality chocolate and no allergies to it the life expectancy would probably go up. I know I would be happier getting a delicious chocolate everyday and happy people theoretically live longer.



The chocolate in most regular advent calendars is going downhill by the time you get to Christmas. I hate to think what one would be like after 30 years.

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby Neil_Boekend » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:59 pm UTC

Moonfish wrote:Is there a special calcium enriched chocolate treat for me the day I hit menopause?

No. However there is a special button marked "edit". It is especially there to help you not break the Forum rules (check out rule 7).
Mikeski wrote:A "What If" update is never late. Nor is it early. It is posted precisely when it should be.

patzer's signature wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:I'm being quoted too much!

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Re: 1577: Advent

Postby mathmannix » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:03 pm UTC

DanD wrote:
yakkoTDI wrote:
orthogon wrote:Cue discussion of the effect on life expectancy of eating a chocolate every day.


Assuming a small, good quality chocolate and no allergies to it the life expectancy would probably go up. I know I would be happier getting a delicious chocolate everyday and happy people theoretically live longer.



The chocolate in most regular advent calendars is going downhill by the time you get to Christmas. I hate to think what one would be like after 30 years.

Yeah, I would hope that it wasn't a simple cardboard dealie like the Advent calendars I know. Somehow, the chocolates would have to be individually vacuum-sealed or something. Or of course, it's one of those fancier ones with small toys instead of candy. It would still have to be something really tiny to fit in the boxes shown.

...

Hey, I know... each box contains a very small gemstone, both pretty and worth somewhere between a few cents and a few dollars. Maybe a few hundred dollars for the significant milestone dates...

Spoiler:
and the last box has a microgram of 210Po.
I hear velociraptor tastes like chicken.


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