## 0452: "Upcoming Hurricanes"

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layzee
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Well, using significant guesstimation the 90W longitude the wave crosses at about -1, making it a -sin(x) where using further guesstimation the frequency of the wave is ~36. Using an earlier estimation for above equator shift of +7 this would make it Hurricane (-sin(36) +7).

scarletmanuka
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

layzee wrote:Well, using significant guesstimation the 90W longitude the wave crosses at about -1, making it a -sin(x) where using further guesstimation the frequency of the wave is ~36. Using an earlier estimation for above equator shift of +7 this would make it Hurricane (-sin(36) +7).

You fail at trigonometry. Note that the graph of [imath]y = -\sin(36) +7[/imath] looks like this (axes not shown):
__________________________________

By frequency, do you mean period (in degrees)? If so then you want [imath]y = k\sin (\pi x / 18 + a) + 7[/imath] where [imath]k[/imath] is half the difference in degrees between the y-coordinate of the peaks and troughs, and [imath]a[/imath] can be determined after this by substituting y=-1, x=90 as per your suggestion. (Note: I am assuming y and x are in degrees, but sin takes its argument in radians. If you want sin to take its argument in degrees, then use [imath]y = k\sin (10x + a) + 7[/imath], where [imath]k[/imath] is the same as before but [imath]a[/imath] will be different. Also, you're a nancy-boy. )

pi2infinity
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Dr. Jeff Masters hosts a tropical weather blog (which he calls his WunderBlog) at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ . It's an excellent blog regarding meteorology and associated mathematics (though you may not be as interested if you don't live in a hurricane-prone area).

This comic was referenced on this widely-viewed blog here:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200807
(It's the blog on 29 July-- that is, the second one from the top)
My normal approach is useless here.

El Cool
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

very nice. i laughed at all of them.

How long did you stare at the Florida peninsula to come up with the Freud hurricane?

Loved those Tron hurricanes. They kinda stick to reality: lately a lot of hurricanes have come close, but not to, Puerto Rico. They just throw water at us, and not come close enough to get a day off.
- There are 10 types of people in this world: those that understand binary and those that don't -

layzee
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Jul 30, 2008 3:48 pm UTC

### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

ouch, come back in a few days to see i get bashed by an aussie.
and one that proceeds to go into the most convoluted explanation of why i am incorrect...
you could have just pointed out i forgot to type in x.
-sin(36x)+7
cheers.

scarletmanuka wrote:
layzee wrote:Well, using significant guesstimation the 90W longitude the wave crosses at about -1, making it a -sin(x) where using further guesstimation the frequency of the wave is ~36. Using an earlier estimation for above equator shift of +7 this would make it Hurricane (-sin(36) +7).

You fail at trigonometry. Note that the graph of [imath]y = -\sin(36) +7[/imath] looks like this (axes not shown):
__________________________________

By frequency, do you mean period (in degrees)? If so then you want [imath]y = k\sin (\pi x / 18 + a) + 7[/imath] where [imath]k[/imath] is half the difference in degrees between the y-coordinate of the peaks and troughs, and [imath]a[/imath] can be determined after this by substituting y=-1, x=90 as per your suggestion. (Note: I am assuming y and x are in degrees, but sin takes its argument in radians. If you want sin to take its argument in degrees, then use [imath]y = k\sin (10x + a) + 7[/imath], where [imath]k[/imath] is the same as before but [imath]a[/imath] will be different. Also, you're a nancy-boy. )

d3c31t
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

such a simple mistake such a beautifully written and fairly lengthy bashing... i love the xkcd forums for this reason...
- All war is deception - Sun Tzu

scarletmanuka
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

I suppose I should have signed it "Summer Glau" in the interests of xckd meme propagation...

jHo
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Has anyone else noticed that Hurricane Fay is a lot like Hurricane Screw-It-Let's-Just-Trash-Florida-Again?

Wiglaf
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Yep, I've had exactly the same thought. Three, maybe four landfalls on Florida, managing to hit the keys, come up the peninsula and THEN turn and hit the panhandle? What the hell? Good thing its not that strong.

Thalagyrt
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

jHo wrote:Has anyone else noticed that Hurricane Fay is a lot like Hurricane Screw-It-Let's-Just-Trash-Florida-Again?

Yup, that was my first thought when I saw that it was going across Florida eastbound followed by crossing again westbound.

Panama1984
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Not only does fay look a lot like screw-it-let's-just-trash-Florida-again, but Bertha looks a lot like where-the-hell-is-Bermuda

also, I live in Orlando, and there's a foot and a half deep pool in my apartment's parking lot

Wall O' AWESOME
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

I hear some people are closing in on three feet of rain. That has to be ...different.

scarletmanuka
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Panama1984 wrote:Not only does fay look a lot like screw-it-let's-just-trash-Florida-again, but Bertha looks a lot like where-the-hell-is-Bermuda

He did tell you these were upcoming hurricanes; what more do you want?

Wiglaf
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Apparently even nature imitates XKCD.

Panama1984
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

aerojad wrote:I hear some people are closing in on three feet of rain. That has to be ...different.

go to orlandosentinel.com

it seriously looks like Katrina in some places

TheHand
Posts: 178
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Indeed, nature does intimidate.

She is a harsh mistress.

jacjac10
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Is it sad that xkcd's hurricane projection was more accurate for this year than most, if not all, of the meterologists' looking at Florida in recent months?

Splooge169
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2008 4:39 am UTC

### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Tropical Storm Fay has now made four landfalls in Florida. The comic clearly shows four landfalls for Hurricane Screw-it-Let's-Just-Trash-Florida-Again. Coincidence?

ACU-LP
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

"Screw it lets just trash florida again"
Bam.

Yay for living in Sydney, where we dont get hurricanes, tornados, typhoons or whatever you want to call them wherever you are.
We did get snow on the north shore though....?!
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Kain
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Panama1984 wrote:
aerojad wrote:I hear some people are closing in on three feet of rain. That has to be ...different.

go to orlandosentinel.com

it seriously looks like Katrina in some places

Actually, Orlando didn't get three feet of rain. That would have been Melbourne Fl, where, as luck would have it, I attend the only educational institution in the county that decided, "hey, this is a three block college campus, our students dont actually have to drive in this weather, so lets keep the school open until three hours before the eye reaches us." The campus ended up looking like a river...

Anyways, on the topic of the Upcoming Huricanes comic, I have this feeling that Gustav is going to do a 'Hurricane Freud' impression... don't ask me why...
Look, you know it's serious when a bunch of people in full armor and gear come charging in to fight a pond of chickens - Steax

fishamaphone
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

This may be the only post I ever make on this forum, but I'm a big fan of the comic, and a Floridian. Yes, Fay made me think of "screw-it-let's-just-trash-Florida-again," but there's another subtle hint that the real world seems to be paying attention to XKCD.

It isn't official yet, but check out the projections for TS Hanna.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Notice how it's predicted to jog the slightest bit north at the tail end of the five-day chart just when it hits the latitude where it formed?

I haven't done any heavy math since high school, but that looks like it's gotta be some form of a cosine function... I know I'll be watching to see how closely it matches that track.

GCM
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Well, if something does hit Florida, we know there's possibly going to be a few lawsuits involving "Your comic depicted it, so it became true! Where's my 3.9 mil?"

In other news, Gustav looks to be calming down. Hope it keeps that way.
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

While we're discussing actual hurricanes, Illinois just got 'hit' by what was once Gustav today.

I think we got two inches of rain, a very gloomy day, and zero actual damage.

Yeah, we do have it too easy.
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william
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

shadowboy wrote:This is one of the funniest ones in a while.

As a resident of Florida, I found the Florida one (and by extension, the Illinois one) hilarious.

SecondTalon wrote:A pile of shit can call itself a delicious pie, but that doesn't make it true.

GloriousPeanut
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

"Hurricane Illinois-Has-It-Too-Easy."

I HOPE YOU ARE HAPPY.

Kain
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

GloriousPeanut wrote:"Hurricane Illinois-Has-It-Too-Easy."

I HOPE YOU ARE HAPPY.

Bah, a tropical depression? I've gone camping in worse.
Look, you know it's serious when a bunch of people in full armor and gear come charging in to fight a pond of chickens - Steax

kriel
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

Kain wrote:
GloriousPeanut wrote:"Hurricane Illinois-Has-It-Too-Easy."I HOPE YOU ARE HAPPY.
Bah, a tropical depression? I've gone camping in worse.

Yes, but it's only friday, and It's already hit my internet for most of today.

<irony>
My friend said "So smile. The sun'll come out tomorrow " today in a text message. I should go slap him.
</irony>

TexasBelle210
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

lol i just want it noted, that some of us got mandatorily evacuated from the texas coast for hurricane ike.... and are now stuck in dallas for god knows how long until we are allowed back...

*realizes that she sounds bitter and goes back to watching animal planet at her aunt's house in dallas*

i think that we should all hope for a strong category 4 hurricane (that goes through some other state than texas or louisiana, we've had enough this year)! that way, when it gets to illinois, it would still be a hurricane!
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Wash: No.
Jayne: I could get naked.
Everyone: No!

eigensheep
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### Re: 0452: "Upcoming Hurricanes"

It looks like Randall is going to get his wish in the alt text thanks to Hurricane Irene. CNN was showing simulations of Manhattan being flooded today.

TheRedSeven
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### Re: 'Upcoming Hurricanes' discussion

kriel wrote:
Kain wrote:
GloriousPeanut wrote:"Hurricane Illinois-Has-It-Too-Easy."I HOPE YOU ARE HAPPY.
Bah, a tropical depression? I've gone camping in worse.

Yes, but it's only friday, and It's already hit my internet for most of today.

<irony>
My friend said "So smile. The sun'll come out tomorrow " today in a text message. I should go slap him.
</irony>

I actually *was* camping during the remnants of this. A group of friends always visited the Michigan (Warren) Dunes each fall as kind of a end-of-summer getaway. The forecast was 20% for light rain/drizzle, which was pretty typical of our experience. Normally it would rain, but then dry out and we'd have a great weekend. So we didn't think anything of the forecast having a possibility of rain.

It ended up raining over 6 inches over the first night. Dried up enough for us to swim in Lake Michigan for a couple hours, cook out, and climb the dunes. Then it proceeded to rain another 3 inches over the second night. Oh, and we do the "rustic" camp there--no running water/electricity, etc. Worst camping experience of my life.

(Also, re: the post above mine--Randall is obviously prescient. Amazing that they still don't have emergency scenarios for that, though they did a decent job evacuating for Irene.)

Splarka
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### Re: 0452: "Upcoming Hurricanes"

eigensheep wrote:It looks like Randall is going to get his wish in the alt text thanks to Hurricane Irene. CNN was showing simulations of Manhattan being flooded today.

Looks like he really got his wish with Sandy.
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jello34543
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### Re: 0452: "Upcoming Hurricanes"

Not the same track as Hurricane Screw-it-let's-just-trash-Florida-again, but Irma is looking to cross Florida the long way. And still be hurricane strength when it reaches Gainesville (i.e, ~300 miles from where it will make landfall). Yeah, Florida gets hit all the time, but not usually quite so thoroughly by a single storm.

heuristically_alone
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### Re: 0452: "Upcoming Hurricanes"

Irma followed by jose. Almost looks beautiful.