1154: Resolution

This forum is for the individual discussion thread that goes with each new comic.

Moderators: Moderators General, Prelates, Magistrates

jpk
Posts: 607
Joined: Sat Nov 13, 2010 7:33 am UTC

1154: Resolution

Postby jpk » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:54 am UTC

Image

Punchline: "If at first you don't succeed, that's one data point."

My resolution was going to be, if I'm awake when the new strip goes up there's probably something more important to be doing. But I guess I'll have to think of something else.

User avatar
rhomboidal
Posts: 801
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:25 pm UTC
Contact:

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby rhomboidal » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:56 am UTC

I don't know. 13's an unlucky number to begin breaking out of loops...

jpk
Posts: 607
Joined: Sat Nov 13, 2010 7:33 am UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby jpk » Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:13 am UTC

rhomboidal wrote:I don't know. 13's an unlucky number to begin breaking out of loops...


2013!=13, so you should be okay.

User avatar
ivnja
The spirit of things can bugger right off.
Posts: 829
Joined: Mon Dec 04, 2006 5:30 am UTC
Location: 19T526268 4971339 (NAD 83)

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby ivnja » Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:21 am UTC

This reminds me of some of the older comics. Plus it speaks to me (to many or most of us, I'm sure). I like it a great deal.
Hi you.
she/her

polymer
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 7:14 am UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby polymer » Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:42 am UTC

YES! Randal get out of my head!

I didn't think I'd get to be around for one of those...

blowfishhootie
Posts: 486
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2011 11:13 pm UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby blowfishhootie » Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:53 am UTC

polymer wrote:YES! Randal get out of my head!

I didn't think I'd get to be around for one of those...


The point of the comic is, it pretty much speaks to everyone, or at least almost everyone.

User avatar
Arancaytar
Posts: 1642
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2007 12:54 am UTC
Location: 52.44°N, 13.55°E
Contact:

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby Arancaytar » Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:31 am UTC

My only resolution is to not follow through on any of my resolutions.
"You cannot dual-wield the sharks. One is enough." -Our DM.
Image

Nooska
Posts: 5
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2012 6:02 pm UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby Nooska » Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:35 am UTC

Arancaytar wrote:My only resolution is to not follow through on any of my resolutions.

Won't that be quite hard to not follow through on?

User avatar
Klear
Posts: 1965
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 8:43 am UTC
Location: Prague

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby Klear » Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:47 am UTC

Few years ago I decided to only have resolutions that apply to the rest of the year, usually just an hour or so. Makes them that much easier to achieve.

Wooloomooloo
Posts: 129
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:05 am UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby Wooloomooloo » Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:37 pm UTC

My last resolution was to stop making new-year resolutions once and for all. So far it's working out great, and it's the first one I actually kept! :D

mishka
Posts: 49
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 3:47 am UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby mishka » Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:58 pm UTC

A modernist self-referential resolution for our times, reflecting upon the pointlessness of action.

User avatar
philsov
Not a fan of Diane Kruger
Posts: 1350
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 7:58 pm UTC
Location: Texas

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby philsov » Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:51 pm UTC

"If at first you don't succeed, that's one data point."


Questions for the stat-literate:

How many consecutive failures are necessary to state "There's just no point in trying. Stop." with 95% confidence?
The time and seasons go on, but all the rhymes and reasons are wrong
I know I'll discover after its all said and done I should've been a nun.

User avatar
TimXCampbell
Posts: 110
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:26 am UTC
Location: Very Eastern Kentucky, USA
Contact:

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby TimXCampbell » Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:20 pm UTC

philsov wrote:Questions for the stat-literate: How many consecutive failures are necessary to state "There's just no point in trying. Stop." with 95% confidence?

I'm no statistician, but if I had a 100-sided die and was trying for a 93 I wouldn't give up even after 200 rolls. If it got to 10,000 rolls, though, I'd start to suspect something funny was going on.

User avatar
philsov
Not a fan of Diane Kruger
Posts: 1350
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 7:58 pm UTC
Location: Texas

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby philsov » Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:23 pm UTC

Hm. Having a pre-known likelihood of success would make the matter easier, I suppose.

But given your scenario -- it's shorter than the human life span, assuming each year/resolution is a data point. C'est la vie :P
The time and seasons go on, but all the rhymes and reasons are wrong
I know I'll discover after its all said and done I should've been a nun.

User avatar
Wnderer
Posts: 640
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:10 pm UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby Wnderer » Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:50 pm UTC

rhomboidal wrote:I don't know. 13's an unlucky number to begin breaking out of loops...


It's the teens, dude! The TEENS! The Whatevers are finally over! We're starting the heavy duty heptade of the teens! The hair styles, the clothing styles, the music, the cars, the TV shows can all be referred to as belonging to a period of time called the teens. It like the sixties all over again.

Eltigre91
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2012 4:07 pm UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby Eltigre91 » Mon Dec 31, 2012 4:13 pm UTC

Hm. Having a pre-known likelihood of success would make the matter easier, I suppose.

But given your scenario -- it's shorter than the human life span, assuming each year/resolution is a data point. C'est la vie


La vie!

I made an account just so I could do that. I've always wanted to. I... I have a dull life.

Geshin119
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2012 4:34 pm UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby Geshin119 » Mon Dec 31, 2012 4:45 pm UTC

I resolve to be a little less stupid this year.

Carteeg_Struve
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Jun 08, 2009 12:56 pm UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby Carteeg_Struve » Mon Dec 31, 2012 4:57 pm UTC

Every other year I tend to have a New Years Resolution to not have any New Years Resolutions for the year coming after that.

Only once did I screw up. I lost track of which year I was on and failed at my previous New Years Resolution by resolving not to create a resolution for the following year.

User avatar
modulating
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2007 2:19 pm UTC
Location: New York

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby modulating » Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:29 pm UTC

Isn't the halting problem undecidable?

User avatar
orthogon
Posts: 3104
Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 7:52 am UTC
Location: The Airy 1830 ellipsoid

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby orthogon » Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:34 pm UTC

philsov wrote:Questions for the stat-literate:

How many consecutive failures are necessary to state "There's just no point in trying. Stop." with 95% confidence?

I was going to have a go at this but the more I thought about it the harder it got. Considering each resolution as one trial, and presuming that it's worth giving up if the probability of ever making a successful resolution is less than 5%, you have a probability p of success for a given resolution where p is itself a random variable, you need a prior distribution for p (assuming you're a Bayesian), and the number of trials remaining is another random variable depending on your remaining actuarial lifetime. Then you have to make assumptions about how many resolutions you will make in each year, which is almost certainly age-dependent.

Anyway I have to go to a party now. Happy New Year everyone. It's been a privilege to spend much of 2012 in your collective company.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

DaveMcW
Posts: 35
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 7:42 pm UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby DaveMcW » Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:43 pm UTC

modulating wrote:Isn't the halting problem undecidable?

Only for computers capable of infinite loops. People tend to stop looping after a hundred years or so.

User avatar
orthogon
Posts: 3104
Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 7:52 am UTC
Location: The Airy 1830 ellipsoid

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby orthogon » Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:53 pm UTC

PS Note also the Black Swan and the difficulty in general of estimating the probability of unprecedented events.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

rmsgrey
Posts: 3655
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2011 6:35 pm UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby rmsgrey » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:16 pm UTC

If you have 100 trials, with success equally likely on each trial, then 95% of scenarios where you have a single success will have the single success in the first 95 trials. So, 95% of the way through your run of resolutions, it's less than 5% likely that you'll see a success in your lifetime if you haven't seen one yet.

On the other hand, I suspect the probability of success is not independent of the history of failures, and it's not trivial to figure out when you're 95% of the way through...

User avatar
San Fran Sam
Posts: 228
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 5:54 pm UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby San Fran Sam » Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:11 pm UTC

I guess we now know that Randall is insane...

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein

User avatar
philsov
Not a fan of Diane Kruger
Posts: 1350
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 7:58 pm UTC
Location: Texas

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby philsov » Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:22 pm UTC

The time and seasons go on, but all the rhymes and reasons are wrong
I know I'll discover after its all said and done I should've been a nun.

User avatar
dudiobugtron
Posts: 1098
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:14 am UTC
Location: The Outlier

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby dudiobugtron » Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:08 pm UTC

Is it the right time to bring up last year's 'actual' resolution?

http://xkcd.com/998/ wrote:I plan to spend 2013 doing nothing but talking about the Mayans
Image

dreeves
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:17 pm UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby dreeves » Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:33 pm UTC

This is why just Resolving, no matter how serious a tone of voice you do it in, is so silly. It's got to be backed up with something! In other words you have to get yourself on the hook in some way.

Which brings me to my shameless motivation for showing up here. I don't suppose any of you are Beeminder fans?
I'm totally fantasizing about convincing Randall to do for Beeminder what he did for Fitocracy in xkcd #940

User avatar
faunablues
Posts: 95
Joined: Wed Feb 27, 2008 3:14 am UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby faunablues » Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:50 pm UTC

Don't mind me, I'm just here to squee over the tiny stick-figure fist.

adorable

User avatar
PinkShinyRose
Posts: 835
Joined: Mon Nov 05, 2012 6:54 pm UTC
Location: the Netherlands

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby PinkShinyRose » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:19 am UTC

DaveMcW wrote:
modulating wrote:Isn't the halting problem undecidable?

Only for computers capable of infinite loops. People tend to stop looping after a hundred years or so.


To be fair: so do most computers, within 10 years actually, even sooner if the sys admin decides it is a waste of resources.

jpk
Posts: 607
Joined: Sat Nov 13, 2010 7:33 am UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby jpk » Tue Jan 01, 2013 4:11 am UTC

San Fran Sam wrote:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein



Tangent: does anyone actually have a citation for Einstein saying this, or is it just a case of "let's put it in Einstein's mouth so it'll sound less stupid"?

User avatar
dudiobugtron
Posts: 1098
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:14 am UTC
Location: The Outlier

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby dudiobugtron » Tue Jan 01, 2013 7:09 am UTC

jpk wrote:
San Fran Sam wrote:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein

Tangent: does anyone actually have a citation for Einstein saying this, or is it just a case of "let's put it in Einstein's mouth so it'll sound less stupid"?

No, no one has a citation for Einstein saying it. It is apparently often misattributed to him though.
Image

runner_bric
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:10 pm UTC

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby runner_bric » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:13 pm UTC

ivnja wrote:This reminds me of some of the older comics. Plus it speaks to me (to many or most of us, I'm sure). I like it a great deal.
I've recently had the pleasure of going through some of the older comics, and I have to agree with this... there are many comics that speak to me a ton, and I love it, but also hate to feel so not unique... Perhaps, though, I can actually go through with my resolutions this year!

User avatar
addams
Posts: 10338
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 4:44 am UTC
Location: Oregon Coast: 97444

Re: 1154: Resolution

Postby addams » Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:28 am UTC

Oh, crap.
I thought I had it figured out.
The perfect Resolution is to do something I already do.

So; As I set out to be like me, only better.
I find out; It's not fun or easy when I think too hard!

There is room for improvement.
Keeping data is one thing.
Labeling is something different.

My Resolution was to keep more data.
Day three and it is a problem.

I'm giving up. Labeling leads to manageable data.
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
by mr. Oscar Wilde.

Those that want to Know; Know.
Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.


Return to “Individual XKCD Comic Threads”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: measure, mscha and 114 guests