British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

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elasto
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:59 pm UTC

I think they'd like to, and they may gain traction the election after this, but for now they'd probably be over the moon to get 20 MPs...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Jumble » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:40 pm UTC

For the record, in 26 hours and 26 minutes I'm not allowed to have a public opinion on any of this. I have done my best, in the face of weakness, lack of foresight, and recent man-child stupidity. You vote for the hell you live in. Have fun guys.

However, my job will remain to make the best of it, and I will continue to do it to the best of my ability. Jumble, signing off, until Purdah is over.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:31 pm UTC

You work for the civil service? The BBC? Do tell!

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Diadem » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:26 pm UTC

I still think it is weird that May is calling for an election in June. It's like she doesn't even believe in nominative determinism.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby sardia » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:49 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:I still think it is weird that May is calling for an election in June. It's like she doesn't even believe in nominative determinism.

You're a bad person.

I'm getting the same vibes from the UK that I'm getting from Japan. A terrible administration but the opposition is even more incompetent.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Jumble » Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:35 pm UTC

elasto wrote:You work for the civil service? The BBC? Do tell!

Civil servant. I'm an FCO diplomat currently serving in the Middle East.

Bless it, the FCO lacks a sense of humour if you start mouthing off during Purdah. So I'll be good.

Shame that the FBI didn't bother with such niceties last November. Okay, that's all from me for a bit.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Angua » Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:51 pm UTC

We'll miss you, Jumble.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:50 pm UTC

For the first time in decades, Scotland’s Tories have a confident gleam in their eyes. Almost exactly 20 years after being wiped from Scotland’s electoral map by New Labour in 1997, losing all its MPs, the party is on the brink of a Westminster revival.

The first Scottish opinion polls published since Theresa May announced the snap election suggest the Scottish Tories could win up to a dozen Westminster seats, nearly all of them at the expense of Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National party.

A Survation poll for the Sunday Post put the Tories at 28%, against 43% for the SNP, with Sturgeon’s party seven points lower than its vote in 2015. At that level, the Conservatives would win up to eight seats.

For the Sunday Times, a Panelbase survey put Tory support at its highest since the 1970s, at 33% against 44% for the SNP. In theory, that would give the Tories 12 Westminster seats – a total the party privately regards as fanciful.

Yet such polls offer fresh evidence that the EU referendum result has disrupted politics in the same way the independence referendum did in 2014: this time the Tories appear to be the beneficiaries.

A poll on Monday suggested the Labour party faced losing a general election in Wales for the first time since 1918.

The YouGov poll suggested the Tories could win a majority of Welsh seats at a general election for the first time since the 1850s – before the era of mass democracy. The apparent shift seems to be the result of Ukip voters switching to the Tories.

At last year’s assembly elections Welsh Labour managed to distance itself from the UK-wide party and held on to power in Cardiff, but party sources worry that at a general election it is much harder to repeat that trick.

With UKIP voters returning to the fold in England too, I'd be amazed if the Tories didn't have a thumping majority in a month's time - which could be a horrible recipe for good government.

We don't have the Presidency, Senate and Congress to each reign in the worst excesses of the others, we simply have parliament - and Her Majesty's 'official opposition' could easily fracture into irrelevance for a generation... :/

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Liri » Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:28 pm UTC

Spoiler:
Congress = Senate + House of Representatives

You probably meant Supreme Court, not Senate


That is the pitfall of your style of government. First two years Obama could have gotten done a lot more vs. we'd have had Paul Ryan as PM the past few years (all things being equal).

Is Scottish Labour sufficiently tiny that they don't have many seats to lose?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Xenomortis » Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:02 pm UTC

There are 59 seats in Scotland.
The SNP hold 54 of them.
The Conservative, Labour, and LibDem parties have one each.
There are two independents (previously SNP).

Only one party has anything to lose in Scotland.

The Tories used to have a pretty good showing in Scotland, but I understand that disappeared in the Thatcher use. Labour, and Liberal Democrats to an extent, have generally done well in Scotland (2015 notwithstanding).
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:13 pm UTC

The joke, until recently, was solely about there being fewer Conservative MPs in Scotland than there are pandas. Edinburgh Zoo has two pandas (trying to get at least a third by the usual biological means), whereas there was only one Tory MP within Scotland.

At the last election, all but three of the 59 MPs for Scotland were SNP. There was that one Tory (in an England-bordering area), one Labour (Edinburgh South, not even a Glasgow area!) and one LibDem (Orkneys and Shetland, basically a wedding gift from Norway). Since then, two SNPers have become Independent for... reasons... and it sounds like those seats will be recontested with new SNPers this next time round. But SNP really have everything to lose. They're so dominant in Scotland that nearly any swing at all will disbenefit them and give someone something. But going from one seat to none is a possible fate for the other (local versions of the) national parties, depending on what happens between now and June. And it's much too early to say how that goes. It may well be that the Tories have peaked too soon in 'popularity', although I honestly think that the path to Labour victory (or indeed non-defeat) is trickier even than the LibDem one of even partial recovery to Coalition-time strength.


(Ninjaed, and with similar sentiment, but as I wrote it...)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Liri » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:17 pm UTC

That's what my general recollection was, yeah (didn't remember specific numbers).

I know Shetland because I love geography and the very cozy Shetland murder-mystery series rebroadcast on PBS here.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:30 pm UTC

When you catch the bus on Shetland, on a windy day (we're talking gale force, under beautiful bright blue skies!), to be told by the driver that the vehicle is only just back on the road after being blown off it a month or two ago... Yeah, cozy... ;)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Liri » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:35 pm UTC

It's cozy when I'm snuggled up watching it on the couch with kitty and blankets and tea. :mrgreen:

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby sardia » Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:07 am UTC

Liri wrote:
Spoiler:
Congress = Senate + House of Representatives

You probably meant Supreme Court, not Senate


That is the pitfall of your style of government. First two years Obama could have gotten done a lot more vs. we'd have had Paul Ryan as PM the past few years (all things being equal).

Is Scottish Labour sufficiently tiny that they don't have many seats to lose?

Now hold on there, does the UK suffer from Gerrymandering or bias in vote to population?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Liri » Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:33 am UTC

sardia wrote:
Liri wrote:
Spoiler:
Congress = Senate + House of Representatives

You probably meant Supreme Court, not Senate


That is the pitfall of your style of government. First two years Obama could have gotten done a lot more vs. we'd have had Paul Ryan as PM the past few years (all things being equal).

Is Scottish Labour sufficiently tiny that they don't have many seats to lose?

Now hold on there, does the UK suffer from Gerrymandering or bias in vote to population?

Voting districts in the UK have a pretty consistent size, with most of them between 60-80 thousand people. There aren't any levels of authority above that (wrt parliament) that can be Gerrymandered. I took a class on this stoof a billion years ago in high school, so a real Brit should feel free to correct.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby eSOANEM » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:34 am UTC

Also we have an independent boundary commission which limits the amount of gerrymandering (although there certainly is some). The big issue in Scotland is that it has always (in recent history) been a fair bit left of England (and therefore the majority of UK constituencies) and, after the independence referendum there was split fairly evenly between nationalists and unionists; this meant that the Scottish nationalists got a small plurality in pretty much every single constituency (because the nationalists all vote for them whereas the unionists are more split). It was first past the post that fucked up in Scotland not the boundaries.
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