Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

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sardia
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby sardia » Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:46 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:If the debt ceiling doesn't rise, what government thing gets shut down? Foodstamps? Medicare? What?

The big purchases first, social security, medicare, and veterans benefits. All of these get cut down to 75% payouts. And then the ripple effects begin and/or get worse. Credit freezes, banks fail, just think 2008 Great recession, but worse.

Vahir, I'm talking about making sure nobody gets rewarded for using the debt ceiling as leverage. Not just the GOP. If they do it, and then the Democrats will threaten to do it. As a result, nobody should do it less they get hit with it as well. The hard part is making sure everyone learns that lesson. We all can plainly see how easily the GOP can delude itself into thinking that playing with the debt ceiling is ok.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby addams » Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:17 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
sardia wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:Well, less shutdown is better than more shutdown.

Even small government fans like me recognize that some ways of getting a small government are better than others. Sudden shutdowns along somewhat arbitrary lines of "mandatory" spending is not a very good way at all.

And frankly, the GOP never wanted no government. They want to run government.

That sort of attitude is how we got into this rut in the first place. You kick the can down the road a year later, or a few months later, just to ease the pressure. And then, bam another crisis. Were you just as optimistic during the 2012 crisis? What about the 2011 debt ceiling? Or the fiscal cliff? Or the sequester. Christ Tyndmyr, there's optimism, and then there's naivety.
Do you even listen to those crazier parts of the GOP? Congressman Tom Coburn has magical thinking in that if he says we don't default, we won't. Ted YOLO of Florida thinks defaulting on our debts would help. Who the hell elected these dumb fucks and what did they promise you? Oral sex every day? Guns instead of money when you lose a tooth? The ridiculous promises that he can return you to the times when you thought the world was safe because your parents coddled you? I'd name more names, but these guys are so stupid they make Palin look rational.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli ... l/2937087/
Link if you don't believe me.


The crazier parts can't do it by themselves. They need to keep at least a majority of the republican party on their side, minimum. A couple of republicans have publicly broken with this strategy, but not a ton. There's no way that a full on default is going to be seen as a good idea by enough people to matter. That said, seriously, florida, you guys do have a knack for the crazies down there.

Let's look at what actually happens if the debt crisis blows up like the shutdown. There's still some significant income. Payment of interest on the debt is pretty damned easy to cover, and doing so is mandatory. Sequester wasn't actually bad, it was too small in terms of budget to really get painful. Shutdown, more bad, but at least people are starting to talk a little. Not productively, yet, but it's a first step. If we actually started missing payments to military members and veterans and social security checks, though...like, straight up inability to pay them, not even the delay of the shutdown, it'd be bad. The government already isn't popular, with both parties taking a popularity hit, and congress in particular being remarkably hated. There is a limit to what politicians can expect to get away with.


The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.
The full conversation is contained above.
Those words.
The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.
Those words echo for me. Where have we heard those kind of words, before?
The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.

Did you listen to the voices in the air?
I did.

I read some of those words.
I heard some of those words from radio and some from TV and some from real live 3D people.

I have heard real live 3D people say those kinds of words when speaking to themselves.(even sane people speak to themselves, sometimes.)
I have heard real live 3D people say those kinds of words when speaking to each other.
I have heard real live 3D people say those kinds of words when speaking to God.

The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.
I have heard those kinds of words before.

The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.

Hitler did not do it alone.
The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.

Martin Luther King did not march alone.
The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.

At Gettysburg we had a few dead Soldgers.
The dead can not bury themselves.
The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.

The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.
Can we tell Crazy from determined?

The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.
People working together can build bridges.
People working together can build Church.

People working together can tear down a bridge.
People working together can tear down a Church.
The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.

Are we building a Nation up or are we tearing a Nation down?
The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.

I do not want to work with TEA Baggers.
They tear down my Nation.

The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.
They don't need or want me, anyway.
They are content to work with those of like minds.

The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.
A Mob of those Crazy Bastards might get the job done.

Mean. Mean in temperament.
Mean. Mean in the old fashioned way of using the word.

It was a mean and raw night. Nothing sophisticated about it.
They are a mean people. Nothing fancy, deep, thoughtful nor sophisticated about the individuals nor the group.

The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.
Yes. We know, Tymyer. We know.
We do not need to look to the Greeks.

The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.
It is fun to be a part of a Mob. Do-Be-Do-Be-Do...What are we doing?

Destroying the Government of The United States of America?
It destroyed its self? oh.
The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.

Then some nice stranger will come along and give us a new and better one?
That could happen. That idea is not much crazier than the weird shit that Bonner-The Orange Man was saying.

I saw him on a TV screen. He has been working on this for years!
He must be in his Seventh Heaven! How Great! for him.

He is Orange. There is nothing wrong with The Screens.
Orange is an ok color. Mildly unusual.

I refuse to judge him by the color of his skin.
I must judge him by the content of his character.
The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.

Crazy? Crazy like a FOX!
The crazier parts can't do it by themselves.
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Jave D » Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:25 pm UTC

Well the government may or may not default, or stay shutdown, or be overthrown in a non- or -violent revolution, but one thing at least is certain: every single post addams makes is art.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Silknor » Tue Oct 15, 2013 11:35 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:If the debt ceiling doesn't rise, what government thing gets shut down? Foodstamps? Medicare? What?

The big purchases first, social security, medicare, and veterans benefits. All of these get cut down to 75% payouts. And then the ripple effects begin and/or get worse. Credit freezes, banks fail, just think 2008 Great recession, but worse.


Well it would be closer to 65% than 75% once cash on hand is depleted. But it's not at all clear you would see each item get cut like that. The system is set up to pay bills as they come in, in full. It's not obvious that it would be legal or even technically possible to prioritize them, much less pay a pro-rated amount on each invoice. There's a separate system for sovereign debt payments, so on a technical level (if not a legal one), it would at least be easier to make those payments than selected non-interest ones that the Administration thinks are important.

So the answer is probably no one knows. For the first few days after October 17 though, maybe until November 1, we'd probably have enough cash on hand to make all the payments. It's after that where the waters get murky.
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:13 am UTC

I would assume that the administration already has a couple trillion dollar platinum coins on standby at this point.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Telchar » Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:20 am UTC

I never understood why it had to be a platinum coin. Like, are we worried people are going to create/accept forgeries? Or are we pretending that if we make it out of platinum as opposed to tin, people will more readily accept it? Or was it some arcane legal reason?

I really wish the Republican party wasn't batshit crazy, because I would like a reasonable debate about fiscal responsibility and monetary policy. But I can't have that discussion with Louie "Terror Babies" Gohmert.
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Thesh » Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:44 am UTC

Arcane legal reason. The executive branch cannot normally order the treasury to print money. However, there is a clause that allows them to mint commemorative coins made out of platinum. Commemorative coins are legal tender, and there is no restriction on value.
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby SlyReaper » Wed Oct 16, 2013 6:57 am UTC

So I'm sitting here, over the pond, wondering. Are they actually going to do it? By my understanding, the deadline is tomorrow. They're cutting it really close, and I do have to wonder if they're actually going to let the economy burn.

Actually, has the damage already been done? Even if they do manage to raise the debt ceiling this time, won't investors be nervously thinking "what about next time"?
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Oct 16, 2013 9:17 am UTC

The Hindus have a different perspective. In their religion, there is Destruction, Creation, and Maintaining, all of which are necessary for Life. The Hindu god of Destruction, Shiva, is not some eldritch abomination that must be stopped (by donating 10% of your income to a holy man), but the first step in Life. To make a house you destroy a tree for the wood. To grow crops you destroy an unplowed field. To make an omelette you break an egg.

Why do I bring this up? Well, our system is clearly broken. It has deteriorated to the point where, unlike the past few decades, it no longer "works while broken". In order for us to create a system that works, we need to 'destroy' the current system, even if that 'destruction' amounts to fixing it. And right now, all this nonsense going on in Washington is forcing the Destruction we may very well need.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Silknor » Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:30 am UTC

SlyReaper wrote:So I'm sitting here, over the pond, wondering. Are they actually going to do it? By my understanding, the deadline is tomorrow. They're cutting it really close, and I do have to wonder if they're actually going to let the economy burn.

Actually, has the damage already been done? Even if they do manage to raise the debt ceiling this time, won't investors be nervously thinking "what about next time"?


The deadline is a little less black and white than tomorrow. Treasury expects to run out of extraordinary measures tomorrow, which means we'll just have cash on hand and whatever tax revenue comes in, with no ability to borrow more (the few months they've been getting money by doing things like borrowing from exchange rate funds). The estimate is that we'd have about $30 billion available, and that on November 1 we have about $60 billion in bills due, mostly Medicare, Social Security, and payments to veterans. It's unlikely we'd be able to make all of those payments, and our funds might not even last through October.

And yes, it's very likely some damage has been done. We're a lot closer to default than we were in 2011, and the GAO found that we paid an extra $1.3 billion in borrowing costs in 2011 alone as a result of getting so close, not including higher borrowing costs in future years as a result of signaling that our debt was less safe than previously believed. But compared to the damage of default, that's a drop in the bucket. If we actually start missing payments, even ones not to bondholders, we could easily throw the country into recession and cause a global financial catastrophe since the system is so heavily built on an bedrock of ultra-safe Treasuries.
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Angua » Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:59 am UTC

Any idea how this is going to be affecting countries like the Caribbean? The OECS currency is tied to the US dollar, and i don't get the feeling we have the most robust of economies to be able to weather the storm. I've tried a bit of googling on the subject but haven't been that successful (though mainly due too not understanding much about economics)
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby sardia » Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:24 pm UTC

I would say that the GOP should be remembered as the party that destroys jobs, the economy and our global power, but the GOP has done this before with few repercussions. If this is the price for small government then you disgust me. I wonder if the libertarians have gone quiet because they don't want to admit they've done anything wrong or real life just got in the way.
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:31 pm UTC

The GOP's idea of small government is to run up the debt and cripple the economy to the point where the government is forced to cut nearly everything even with astronomically high taxes, and step 3 profit.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby sigsfried » Wed Oct 16, 2013 4:29 pm UTC

So looks like it is resolved for the time being. Any chance the US can stop playing chicken with the world economy now?

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Xeio » Wed Oct 16, 2013 4:31 pm UTC

The narrow package includes a stopgap measure that funds the government through Jan. 15, a suspension of the debt ceiling until Feb. 7
Oh good. I was worried we'd delay more panic a whole year from now, or *gasp* longer.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby SlyReaper » Wed Oct 16, 2013 4:44 pm UTC

Xeio wrote:
The narrow package includes a stopgap measure that funds the government through Jan. 15, a suspension of the debt ceiling until Feb. 7
Oh good. I was worried we'd delay more panic a whole year from now, or *gasp* longer.

Pretty much my first thought.

So, when are they going to get rid of the debt ceiling altogether? Its existence is surely in violation of the constitution? That bit of the constitution that says the US will always pay its bills?
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Oct 16, 2013 4:47 pm UTC

I say the US should revolt, and break away from itself. Everything except Guam. Guam shall be the USA, with a 15 trillion debt. While the NewSA has no debt.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Dark567 » Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:38 pm UTC

SlyReaper wrote:
Xeio wrote:
The narrow package includes a stopgap measure that funds the government through Jan. 15, a suspension of the debt ceiling until Feb. 7
Oh good. I was worried we'd delay more panic a whole year from now, or *gasp* longer.

Pretty much my first thought.

So, when are they going to get rid of the debt ceiling altogether? Its existence is surely in violation of the constitution? That bit of the constitution that says the US will always pay its bills?
When there is a crisis over it.

I'm willing to be bet that the Obama Administration already has an argument laid out on why the debt ceiling violates the constitution and the 14th amendment if we violate the ceiling.
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Xenomortis » Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:53 pm UTC

Doesn't this need to pass the House before it's all over?
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Negated » Wed Oct 16, 2013 6:06 pm UTC

Xenomortis wrote:Doesn't this need to pass the House before it's all over?

Many news outlets predict that it will pass the House this time, with some Republicans going along with it.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby SlyReaper » Wed Oct 16, 2013 6:13 pm UTC

They only need to convince a small number of republicans to go along with it, even if most of them vote against it.
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Thesh » Wed Oct 16, 2013 6:51 pm UTC

That's assuming the bill gets brought up for a vote.


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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby sigsfried » Wed Oct 16, 2013 7:08 pm UTC

I want to say this in much less polite language but why is the Speaker a partisan figure? I just can't see what advantages you gain from it being a partisan position.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Thesh » Wed Oct 16, 2013 7:39 pm UTC

sigsfried wrote:I want to say this in much less polite language but why is the Speaker a partisan figure? I just can't see what advantages you gain from it being a partisan position.
Because it is an elected position, and all elected positions are partisan. Personally. I think we should be able to eliminate all of the power in the position and replace it entirely with petitions requiring any majority or significant minority.
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Oct 16, 2013 7:48 pm UTC

Silknor wrote:But yeah, it's lamentable that they consider this a valid negotiating tactic (especially over the debt ceiling, but on the CR too); it's one that needs to be shutdown, and hard. Otherwise, they (and eventually Democrats too) will continue this incredibly risky behavior of threatening default if they don't get their way. I still think a major error of the Obama's first term was not handling the debt ceiling in 2009-2010 and then negotiating over it in 2011. Unless it was a genius play to get the Republican party to impale themselves on the debt ceiling in 2013. In which case it may yet work, though at what cost, I don't know.


This isn't a particularly new tactic...it's a quite old one. Shit, America was basically founded on a debt disagreement. Post revolution, the states had varying levels of war debt. Those(mostly southern) who had done better at paying theirs down were not fond of nationalizing this debt, while the rest were. The eventual compromise included the capital being built in the south(Virginia was influential). So, yeah, we've been arguing over debt for basically our entire life as a nation.

That said, I would not describe anyone's actions in this round as a "genius play". Quite the opposite.

KrytenKoro wrote:(1) How is sedition (not just for Obama, back for Bush too) a bad thing, really? (2) How is it anything that the opposing sides haven't already done in their turn? (3) Didn't we previously realize the administration wasn't supposed to have those barricades put up in the first place?

I mean, yeah, they're racist morons, but...they're not wrong about the barricades.


This is true. Giving these idiots a legitimate cause to rally around was also stupid. I'm not particularly fond of seeing people march under the confederate flag, but the barricade issue was really stupid.

Blowing this up into a bigger issue and attempting to prosecute some anti-obama blowhard just escalates an issue that cannot possibly go anywhere positive. That's a no-win action.

sardia wrote:I'm away from my computer but did anyone see the argument that nobody should be rewarded for using the debt ceiling? It's a harder line but I agree because giving concessions on the debt ceiling rewards the most ruthless and rich politicians. A bad thing to be rewarding. If we don't, the future will consist of sociopathic politicians demanding policy concessions on the left and right. All the libertarians here have dodged the question about how they would feel if the democrats threatened key GOP positions with the threat of default.


So...what, precisely, should be the limitation on debt, and how should it be handled, then? Surely you agree that SOME limit on indebtedness should exist, yes?

Also, I'm a libertarian, not a republican. Your expectation that I would be concerned about GOP setbacks is laughable. I view both sides as pretty equally terrible in this mess, and certainly both have used it in the past.

CorruptUser wrote:If the debt ceiling doesn't rise, what government thing gets shut down? Foodstamps? Medicare? What?


Good question. SS was sold as a lock-box, but has long since ceased to be this thing. Income and payments are essentially part of general funds, with the SS fund being little more than a shell game. Democrats appear to be acknowledging this in their claim that SS payments will also be delayed...but it has been previously been much denied, despite being a sticking point for those of us worried about SS.

It seems that in lieu of agreement or changes, it is likely that interest payments will be made as normal, and everything else will be paid in the order it comes in. So, short delay at first, increasing eventual delays. The economic effects of this are negative, and while short term repercussions can be noted by looking at the prior time it happened(delays there, plus technical difficulties resulted in unpaid bills), long term repercussions we have less data on. We can safely assume that a longer state of delayed payments is more negative than a short one, though.

SlyReaper wrote:So I'm sitting here, over the pond, wondering. Are they actually going to do it? By my understanding, the deadline is tomorrow. They're cutting it really close, and I do have to wonder if they're actually going to let the economy burn.

Actually, has the damage already been done? Even if they do manage to raise the debt ceiling this time, won't investors be nervously thinking "what about next time"?


The economy doesn't burn instantly if checks are late. As mentioned, it happened before, and while interest rates rose a bit, no big deal in the long term.

And yes, the ongoing hostility has certainly been noted by investors. You can assume that this has been an ongoing process. However, t-bills are still not terribly high-interest, and the economy is fairly far from burning. Even if the likely compromise is not reached today, we won't turn to anarchy overnight.

sardia wrote:I would say that the GOP should be remembered as the party that destroys jobs, the economy and our global power, but the GOP has done this before with few repercussions. If this is the price for small government then you disgust me. I wonder if the libertarians have gone quiet because they don't want to admit they've done anything wrong or real life just got in the way.
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Real life, fell behind on xkcd, but there are a *lot* of topics I want to hit. Maybe tomorrow, for most of them. This one is particularly fascinating for some reason.

Both parties are more than willing to destroy all these things for partisan gain. Endless examples are possible.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Oct 16, 2013 8:16 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:So...what, precisely, should be the limitation on debt, and how should it be handled, then? Surely you agree that SOME limit on indebtedness should exist, yes?


Most countries in the world don't have debt ceilings and it doesn't seem to be a problem. The limitation on the debt is set, essentially, by how much debt the populace is willing to bear, or how much the economy can sustain.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby sigsfried » Wed Oct 16, 2013 8:26 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:
sigsfried wrote:I want to say this in much less polite language but why is the Speaker a partisan figure? I just can't see what advantages you gain from it being a partisan position.
Because it is an elected position, and all elected positions are partisan. Personally. I think we should be able to eliminate all of the power in the position and replace it entirely with petitions requiring any majority or significant minority.


Nobody stands for election to that position. Why not move the powers that need to be dealt with in a non partisan way, to a non partisan position (even if chosen from the House it is possible to insist they behave in a non partisan way) and the powers that need to be in the hands of the leader of the majority to a position for that.

So...what, precisely, should be the limitation on debt, and how should it be handled, then? Surely you agree that SOME limit on indebtedness should exist, yes?


When a budget is passed the spending levels and taxation are set. Implicitly that could authorise the required borrowing, same as how most countries work.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Thesh » Wed Oct 16, 2013 10:24 pm UTC

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/20 ... t-standoff

Looks like Boehner will not block it, however. we will be talking about this all over again in three months.
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby CorruptUser » Thu Oct 17, 2013 12:01 am UTC

Recall elections, please...

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Thesh » Thu Oct 17, 2013 12:17 am UTC

What? You have a problem with always being three months away from a crisis that can send us into recession?
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Silknor » Thu Oct 17, 2013 12:35 am UTC

Dark567 wrote:I'm willing to be bet that the Obama Administration already has an argument laid out on why the debt ceiling violates the constitution and the 14th amendment if we violate the ceiling.


Perhaps. But they've also repeatedly and publicly disavowed that position (as well as the platinum coin). Of course, that stance could also be a negotiating tactic to ensure pressure stays on the Republicans. But if they did argue the debt ceiling is unconstitutional and continue to issue bonds notwithstanding that law, you'd have a genuine constitutional crisis and a serious possibility of impeachment (though not conviction in the Senate).
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby addams » Thu Oct 17, 2013 2:20 am UTC

sardia wrote:I would say that the GOP should be remembered as the party that destroys jobs, the economy and our global power, but the GOP has done this before with few repercussions. If this is the price for small government then you disgust me. I wonder if the libertarians have gone quiet because they don't want to admit they've done anything wrong or real life just got in the way.
Excuse the typos. On the phone

Nice little Rant there Sardia.

Real Life. Real Life, just, got in 'the way'.
Real Life is hard.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln_Barnett
Dr. Barnett died in 1979. That is a long time ago.

Sometimes when other people do something that looks stupid or clumsy I say, "What were you thinking?"
Sometimes when I do something that looks stupid or clumsy I can be asked, "What were you thinking?"

I memorized something Dr. Barnett wrote. Page 8. At the top; I think.
He wrote, "Mind may yet guide Man's destiny in a capricious universe."

The universe may be capricious. It is not good to have Statesmen that are as capricious as 3-4 year old girls.
It may be time for the people of the US to say, "Fill this cup."

You are fussing about Money. Correct?
Fill the cup. Did you notice anything?

The bottom of the cup fills, First.


Does that seem obvious to you? good.
Now; Explain it to them.

How does a people enforce their will?
What is 'The Will' of The People?

Have you met The People?!?
Spoiler:
OK! OK! It only looks like All Dicks and Assholes.
It can't be.

Turn it over! Everything has a face!

Bonner!? Trump? and; Palin?

Somehow, it makes sense; Oprah and Martha Stewart were oppressed
So that Bonner, Trump, Palin and Dr. Phil could lead our people onto a Nation Wide Jerry Springer set.


EDIT:
I am angry at the TEA Baggers.
I spoke with one during the daylight hours, today.

If he represents his people then I am angry at all of them.
If he stands alone then I am angry at him.

He was a belergent person; Almost determined.
His bumper sticker said, "The president does not apologize for My Nation."

Or; Something to that effect. The conversation got around to, "Who does apologize for you?"
He was so creepy. He was dirty. I could smell him. He was full of himself. -To be fair who should he be full of if not himself?-

Was that the smell? I don't think so.
It was, just, dirty. I am not proud of these TEA Baggers.

They are ready for the UnCivil Civil War. That man is ready.
That man has a head start on many of us. He lives like there are no public services, NOW!

When do you think The People will miss their Government?
The SS checks need to keep going out. That is life or death for many people.

No SS check needs to be any larger or smaller than any other SS check.
When they go out they go out All The Same!

What number? I don't know; What do you think?
It is imaginary money, after all. Do we want to be overly generous or Punitive? See?!

It would be easy to be punitive. It is just as easy to be generous and fair. Let Level Heads work out a Number.
I get angry and want to be mean. It is not good to be mean; Even when they Have It Coming!

The other stuff is Fluff. Right? Who needs a bunch of Fancy Pants engineers?
Who needs? What do the TEA Baggers complain about? Road Work?

They say, I have heard them say:
Nothing in this country was ever built right, anyway. Not anything The da - da - da -Government had any part in! (right?)


I forget. It is like a Religion War. I believe he should take a bath he thinks I should go fuck myself.
They are a powerful Lobby. What do they want? How can that be given to them without harming Innocent OnLickers?

Is this what War is really like? I had heard. Some people say it is boring.
Nothing. Days and days with Nothing happening. Then some more Nothing.

Some people say it is Hell. People turn on one another. Trust is precious, indeed.
The Milk of Human Kindness is like the Milk of a Cow.
It dries up under stressful conditions.

How else is this like a War?
People are armed. (check)
The guys in uniform are in it for their own gain. (check)

The roads are darned good for a War. That was Truman's idea.
I am not sure he thought of it. He seemed to think it was brilliant. It was. It is?

We have darned Good Roads.
Some of our bridges are nice, too.

Ech. Tomorrow will be The Same Shit; Different Day.

No Change is what The TEA Baggers and their TV OverLords want.
They are a powerful Lobby. If No Change is what they want, that is what the rest of us will get.

Excuse me. I think I did hyperbole. (shrug)
The mountain of words we write each day will cover what I wrote.
I Rant, too. We are do. These are difficult times for People.

The Cats and Dogs are doing FINE! Even on the internet.
The internet gets to stay? Will we have internet?

Will Google Balloons float over and let us chat to our favorite forums?
Will it be fun? Will it be a slice of Hell?
Yes. and; Yes.

The cynics will tell you. If we do we are Damned. If we don't we are Damned.
I am not a we. I am, just, a me.

There is electricity and water and the internet.
I don't see any signs of distress in my Nation from an ongoing Civil War.

We are, just, overreacting. Who Wants to talk to Bonner?
(rasies hand and waves it a little.) I do.

EDIT: again!
I am still angry.
When you see Bonner, ask him about that "Drown it in a BathTub." remark.
It is not a simple off handed remark. It is a slogan. It is a TEA Bagger slogan.

I would like to allow them the opportunity. He is one good place to start. It is almost Halloween.
An Oak Barrel is almost the same size as a BathTub.

This one man and his friends represent Da Govnmt.
Will you talk to him? Will he let you?

Get back to us.
Last edited by addams on Thu Oct 17, 2013 3:17 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
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Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby nitePhyyre » Thu Oct 17, 2013 3:05 am UTC

Silknor wrote:
Dark567 wrote:I'm willing to be bet that the Obama Administration already has an argument laid out on why the debt ceiling violates the constitution and the 14th amendment if we violate the ceiling.
Perhaps. But they've also repeatedly and publicly disavowed that position (as well as the platinum coin). Of course, that stance could also be a negotiating tactic to ensure pressure stays on the Republicans. But if they did argue the debt ceiling is unconstitutional and continue to issue bonds notwithstanding that law, you'd have a genuine constitutional crisis and a serious possibility of impeachment (though not conviction in the Senate).
There's no way they are disavowing that position as a tactical maneuver. The tactical move is to say:

"ok, Republicans, listen up. You have 2 options. Either pass a bill that ends this default debacle, or, before we default I'll pass a Executive Order that does. And believe me, if I'm forced to pass an executive order, if I'm forced to do your job for you, you won't like it. You don't like The Affordable Care Act? Neither do I. Say hello to the american NHS. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. I don't even know all of the things I'll imagine between now and then. What are you gonna do? You'll never pass impeachment. And by the time you take it through the courts, it'll be too late."

On another note, don't impeachments have to be actual crimes? Whatever justification they use to keep issuing bonds, I'm not sure what laws, if any, that would break. Treason?
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby addams » Thu Oct 17, 2013 6:30 am UTC

nitePhyyre wrote:
Silknor wrote:
Dark567 wrote:I'm willing to be bet that the Obama Administration already has an argument laid out on why the debt ceiling violates the constitution and the 14th amendment if we violate the ceiling.
Perhaps. But they've also repeatedly and publicly disavowed that position (as well as the platinum coin). Of course, that stance could also be a negotiating tactic to ensure pressure stays on the Republicans. But if they did argue the debt ceiling is unconstitutional and continue to issue bonds notwithstanding that law, you'd have a genuine constitutional crisis and a serious possibility of impeachment (though not conviction in the Senate).
There's no way they are disavowing that position as a tactical maneuver. The tactical move is to say:

"ok, Republicans, listen up. You have 2 options. Either pass a bill that ends this default debacle, or, before we default I'll pass a Executive Order that does. And believe me, if I'm forced to pass an executive order, if I'm forced to do your job for you, you won't like it. You don't like The Affordable Care Act? Neither do I. Say hello to the american NHS. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. I don't even know all of the things I'll imagine between now and then. What are you gonna do? You'll never pass impeachment. And by the time you take it through the courts, it'll be too late."

On another note, don't impeachments have to be actual crimes? Whatever justification they use to keep issuing bonds, I'm not sure what laws, if any, that would break. Treason?


"ok, Republicans, listen up. You have 2 options. Either pass a bill that ends this default debacle, or, before we default I'll pass a Executive Order that does. And believe me, if I'm forced to pass an executive order, if I'm forced to do your job for you, you won't like it. You don't like The Affordable Care Act? Neither do I. Say hello to the american NHS. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. I don't even know all of the things I'll imagine between now and then. What are you gonna do? You'll never pass impeachment. And by the time you take it through the courts, it'll be too late."


I, kind of, like the way you write.
Why do you keep pulling your punches?

I like it! That one sentence makes a lot of sense.
The Baggers and Bonner shut down the Government of the United States. ok.

Meet the NHS of the US. How wonderful.
When The Baggers need medical care they can buy it from the Swedes
or they can go to a public hospital like everyone else.

That bunch that took over The Executive Branch at 2000 for their shenanigans
were not shy about executive orders.

It would not be wise for our president to telescope any intention to do such a thing.
He must do it the way it is done. The way the Repub's did it.
That shit was DONE then it was talked about.

It would absolutely cost him his life if he threatens to do it.
He might live through having done it.

Just Do It! Like the Repub's did.
Just Do It! Like the shoes say.
Just Do It! For his Mom. For the mean old Bastards.
For some people he has never met.

We don't need a War.
The Europeans got social shit by being such a bunch of fuckwads for a long time.

We Can learn from others.
We don't need thirty years of war to teach us.
To live in Peace is not only possible, but preferable.

It is interesting. Is it interesting to you?
The Baggers are drawing The Line at health care. So interesting.

That may be an essential part of something. What is that something?
A civil life? To live a civil live we must have NHS? The Europeans learned that.

Even the English did. Some of the Europeans want do it our way.
I think it might be a better idea for us to do it their way.

Do you ever think of the conditions that gave birth to the NHS?
I was not there. I talked to and was talked to by people that were there.

The conditions were poor at best.
The Joy of No War was tarnished.

Tarnished by illness, sorrow, injury.
Taking care of one another gave those people something to do while they died.

From what I understand most people were glad the bombs and rifle fire stopped.
Men and Women wandered in the streets. They HAD to do something with each other.

They were ALL walking wounded. Some cities were gone. Other cities were broken.
The people were a little nutty. I was told about Great Joy.

The people would spontaneously rejoice.
"Do you hear that?" It was often a sound.
"Do you hear that?" "What!?" "What do you hear??"

"Listen." "It might be Peace."
What does Peace sound like?

Dresden took a looooog time.
That was so fucking meaningful to some of those people.

I spoke to a man that had been to Dresden.
He worked on that stupid building.
He was bubbling over with his love of that building.

Many did not live long enough to see it complete.
I did. I did not see it in rubble. There are photos of it.

An Executive Order would do it.


If any person does not want to work for the Government
providing medical care and support for our people they don't have to.

I don't know how long people will stubbornly refuse to go to the Free Clinic
when a private doctor will take their money. Insurance Companies? oooooh scary.

Do you think an Executive in a multimillion dollar a year position would constrain its self?
Besides; To order a death is a lot easier and less messy than playing a video game.

We humans have a great many examples of murder for money.
Big Money usually means clean kills. It is usually a little classier than cheep kills.
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
by mr. Oscar Wilde.

Those that want to Know; Know.
Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Silknor » Thu Oct 17, 2013 12:00 pm UTC

nitePhyyre wrote:There's no way they are disavowing that position as a tactical maneuver. The tactical move is to say:

"ok, Republicans, listen up. You have 2 options. Either pass a bill that ends this default debacle, or, before we default I'll pass a Executive Order that does. And believe me, if I'm forced to pass an executive order, if I'm forced to do your job for you, you won't like it. You don't like The Affordable Care Act? Neither do I. Say hello to the american NHS. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. I don't even know all of the things I'll imagine between now and then. What are you gonna do? You'll never pass impeachment. And by the time you take it through the courts, it'll be too late."

On another note, don't impeachments have to be actual crimes? Whatever justification they use to keep issuing bonds, I'm not sure what laws, if any, that would break. Treason?


Implementing a national health system by executive order? Not only would that be plainly unconstitutional (and by the way, the courts can block things really fast, long before ruling on the merits), but the sheer abuse of power required to do so would probably be enough to either make conviction in the Senate, or at least Republicans winning huge in 2014, a reasonable possibility.

Indeed, failure to raise the debt ceiling followed by executive action to circumvent it looks like a goldmine for Republicans compared to what they got. The deal gives them basically nothing, they folded. Obama would be at the center of massive litigation, Congressional inquiry, and likely impeachment. Every criticism they've been making about abuse of executive discretion or a lawless administration, no matter how wrong headed, would find new footing. At least with the platinum coin the Administration could claim to be following the letter, if not spirit of the law. That's the first half of why ruling out a 14th amendment solution could be a tactical move. The second is that by linking failure to raise the debt ceiling with actual failure to pay all our bills, the consequences of Republican obstruction become much, much higher. That incentivizes both moderate Republicans and outside groups (like business and Wall Street) to put huge pressure on them to raise the debt ceiling.

Yes, impeachments need be high crimes or misdemeanors. It's clear though that issuing bonds in violation of the debt ceiling violates the law (I'm not including superpremium bonds, as suggested by Matt Levine, here, I haven't seen any legal analysis of that option, the basic idea would be when a $100 bond rolls over, you issue $100 in face value debt, but sell it for say $275 and offer a really high interest rate). Remember that only Congress is authorized to issue debt on behalf of the United States, there's no inherent presidential power to issue debt. Which means if Obama directs Treasury to issue debt in violation of the law, he would be violating the law and the constitution. That's why even advocates of Obama declaring the debt ceiling unconstitutional refer to it as the "least unconstitutional option":

Yet there is no question that President Obama would be operating outside the law, which clearly could subject him to impeachment for simply carrying out his constitutional duties, which most likely would be to try to avert a financial catastrophe. Moreover, the President would be violating the duties of his office if he failed to act, and simply did nothing.


Yes, not borrowing, not doing any clever workarounds, and simply not paying all the bills also seems unconstitutional, since the President is legally obligated to follow the laws saying X program must be funded in this amount and Social Security payments must be Y. That doesn't actually make violating the law regarding debt issuance constitutional though, it just means he's in a really terrible spot where the "best" option is a gimmick and waves of litigation, and the worst option is violating the constitution.
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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Oct 17, 2013 3:01 pm UTC

sigsfried wrote:
So...what, precisely, should be the limitation on debt, and how should it be handled, then? Surely you agree that SOME limit on indebtedness should exist, yes?


When a budget is passed the spending levels and taxation are set. Implicitly that could authorise the required borrowing, same as how most countries work.


The first issue with this is that it requires a budget to be passed. This is not guaranteed to be the case, and currently, it is a very problematic issue.

The second issue is that actual spending does not rely solely on congress passed bills. Yes, they are the primary driver, but the executive branch is making enforcement decisions that affect costs without recourse to the legislative branch. There was talk a couple years back, I believe, of requiring legislative approval of any executive change modifying costs by over 100 mil, but it never went anywhere. Had it been law, that would have been invoked many, many times over the past few years. Unlimited borrowing potential plus the increased latitude for executive changes we've seen over the last few years would mean a very strong executive branch indeed.

The platinum coin would also have unfortunate effects. Having t-bills issued that are backed in a legally dubious manner that is pretty much guaranteed to be a battleground would create a class of t-bills that would have a higher interest rate, and be considered much more risky. The Obama admin has recognized this quagmire and has chosen to avoid it. Good call, IMO.

Implementing large programs by executive order would be even more questionable. While executive orders have been used more broadly of late, a vast increase in scope would certainly be challenged. I agree that avoiding this was also a smart move. More so than the platinum coin, even. It was unnecessary. The republicans made a negotiation error in asking for the unreasonable...when your opponent errs, you should not overreact and err in response. Just let him suffer his error.

Yes, the republicans got something from this negotiation. Could they have gotten more if they had been somewhat more coherent and flexible? Likely. Did it need to require a shutdown of this length to get that? Probably not. The whole affair was rife with tactical errors, and worse, the basic divides remains, and will likely flare back up again in the near future.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby sardia » Thu Oct 17, 2013 4:29 pm UTC

So...what, precisely, should be the limitation on debt, and how should it be handled, then? Surely you agree that SOME limit on indebtedness should exist, yes?

Also, I'm a libertarian, not a republican. Your expectation that I would be concerned about GOP setbacks is laughable. I view both sides as pretty equally terrible in this mess, and certainly both have used it in the past

You're asking a deceptive question, similar to you're against terrorists right? The purpose of the debt limit was to spark discussion about the budget and the fiscal future of the country. If you're claiming the debt ceiling crisises are helping reduce our deficit, then I have a bridge to sell you. What we have here is leveraging the debt limit as a weapon to force policy concessions for one side or the other. Surely you wouldn't appreciate me raising taxes on guns or demanding that voting is now a mandatory holiday that everyone must attend in exchange for raising the debt limit say...2 months. And then I do it again, but this time for abortion and carbon taxes. How are you gonna stop me? Should you try to stop me? Cphite appears to agree that the founders would approve of me holding the world economy hostage for my own partisan gain. You know, if I were republican, and not screwing the GOP with my demands.

As for your platonic ideal that of Libertarianism that you claim to follow, it's a sick joke. Who in Congress is the closest to "Libertarianism" as you define it? Now what about all those others who claim the mantle of small government, and what did they mean by small government? You should be more offended that the GOP is equating small government with government only for the rich and white.
Last edited by sardia on Thu Oct 17, 2013 4:47 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby leady » Thu Oct 17, 2013 4:46 pm UTC

Even if you think the US mechanism of the debt ceiling is pretty insane (and it is) the principle of a cap of debt is not.

"public debt" is just tax on the unborn and should be against the views of both sides.

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby sardia » Thu Oct 17, 2013 5:05 pm UTC

leady wrote:Even if you think the US mechanism of the debt ceiling is pretty insane (and it is) the principle of a cap of debt is not.

"public debt" is just tax on the unborn and should be against the views of both sides.

Are you equating with a cap on debt with defaulting? Because that's what the debt ceiling means. It gets more complicated from there since you can't do anything too sudden. For example, skipping SS payments so we don't exceed our debt limit is akin to defaulting since we're shaking our faith in the US ability to repay. But strangely, if we discuss cutting SS expenditures by passing a law, the market cheers because we're lowering our debts. Strange right?

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Re: Debt Ceiling Round 3? 4?

Postby leady » Thu Oct 17, 2013 5:16 pm UTC

As I say - mechanism bad, deficit spending control = good

I know the transition is hard, but given this has been happening continually for 25 years...


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