Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spread

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dalcde
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Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spread

Postby dalcde » Mon Sep 29, 2014 5:58 am UTC

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29405195

What the protesters did: stand there, hands up (http://youtu.be/aFaXy3xbrkQ?t=2m6s)
What the police did: tear gas, pepper sprays (also: stealing the umbrellas protesters used for blocking the pepper spray http://youtu.be/h64lJB_5qjc?t=1m9s), dragging people (http://youtu.be/BvQ6Gc5mZ0Q?t=1m21s)

Also: the organizer of the protests called off the protest because the police was too violent. Some left the venue but most decided to stay. The current protest is organized by nobody yet very peaceful (they are just sitting/standing there).

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Zamfir » Mon Sep 29, 2014 3:35 pm UTC

Some english newspapers from HK, to follow the news:

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/
[url]m.scmp.com/[/url]

If I am not mistaken, the scmp is fsirly pro-beijing, the standard less so.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby sardia » Mon Sep 29, 2014 6:03 pm UTC

I wonder how long the protests will last before the authorities decide to crack down again.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Mutex » Mon Sep 29, 2014 6:04 pm UTC

I wonder what it would take for the authorities to give them what they want.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby dalcde » Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:33 pm UTC

sardia wrote:I wonder how long the protests will last before the authorities decide to crack down again.

I'm not sure if the authorities can do anything to them unless they actually shoot. When the police used the tear gas, the people did indeed disperse. Yet after the gas dissapated, they returned to their original position and continued their protest. This happened for all 87 tear gases used afaik. Many of those who were arrested returned to the scene right after they were released.

OTOH, what I think will happen (if the government doesn't respond to the requests) is the the protesters will get too bored there. They are just sitting there doing nothing, and the police isn't even intervening. It is really pretty boring. Seriously. As time goes on, people will start to leave due to pure boredom.

Mutex wrote:I wonder what it would take for the authorities to give them what they want.

That's a tricky question. IMO, the government has gone too far that there isn't much they can do to solve the situation. According to what I've heard, this is what they want (in order of easiest to most difficult)
    1. The police/government to apologize for the excessive use of force and violence during the protests.
    2. The Chief Executive and other people in charge of the political reform to step down.
    3. The NPC Standing Committee (aka Beijing Government) to take back their previous decision of not allowing true universal suffrage.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Mutex » Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:53 pm UTC

I thought what they wanted was for Beijing not to have the power to veto each candidate to stand for power in HK.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby dalcde » Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:00 am UTC

Mutex wrote:I thought what they wanted was for Beijing not to have the power to veto each candidate to stand for power in HK.

The third requirement I listed above? The NPC's decision was that Beijing has (in effect) the power to veto each candidate. And the protesters wanted Beijing to take back that decision.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby sardia » Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:08 am UTC

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/30/world ... -rule.html
The problem is that Beijing has taken a hard line, and any compromise is seen as weakness. More importantly, this weakness could spark protests on the mainland, and that threat of instability is worth thousands of bodies in Hong Kong. Remember, anything that threatens the money train to the Politburo will be dealt with harshly.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Djehutynakht » Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:21 am UTC

sardia wrote:Remember, anything that threatens the money train to the Politburo will be dealt with harshly.


However, thousands of bodies in Hong Kong will considerably hurt the money train. Right now countries are staying out of it, but if it escalates to that point, the international community is going to explode in anger. And, I assume, it's probably going to be worse than the Tiananmen reaction, for several reasons.

The combined threat of international outcry, as well as the negative economic implications to Hong Kong's economy resulting from massive violence in the financial district would probably damage the money train considerably.


Beijing's best bet is to hope they can mop up the situation quietly. If they can't...


Hopefully Hong Kong prevails in their democracy-seeking.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby sardia » Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:38 am UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:
However, thousands of bodies in Hong Kong will considerably hurt the money train. Right now countries are staying out of it, but if it escalates to that point, the international community is going to explode in anger. And, I assume, it's probably going to be worse than the Tiananmen reaction, for several reasons.

The combined threat of international outcry, as well as the negative economic implications to Hong Kong's economy resulting from massive violence in the financial district would probably damage the money train considerably.


Beijing's best bet is to hope they can mop up the situation quietly. If they can't...


Hopefully Hong Kong prevails in their democracy-seeking.

I cite Ukrainian crisis as my rebuttal.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby dalcde » Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:51 am UTC

sardia wrote:
Djehutynakht wrote:
However, thousands of bodies in Hong Kong will considerably hurt the money train. Right now countries are staying out of it, but if it escalates to that point, the international community is going to explode in anger. And, I assume, it's probably going to be worse than the Tiananmen reaction, for several reasons.

The combined threat of international outcry, as well as the negative economic implications to Hong Kong's economy resulting from massive violence in the financial district would probably damage the money train considerably.


Beijing's best bet is to hope they can mop up the situation quietly. If they can't...


Hopefully Hong Kong prevails in their democracy-seeking.

I cite Ukrainian crisis as my rebuttal.


Objection: In the Ukrainian crisis, it is an army vs army battle. When it comes to war, there is no clear-cut right/wrong answer. If it is army vs unarmed civillians, it's a different story.

Or to put it this way, in the Ukrainian crisis, the international stance is more like "I support Ukraine". In cases like the Tiananmen Incident, it is like "How on Earth can you do that?"

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby sardia » Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:21 pm UTC

Uh China emerged from the square by crushing the protesters. We should not be hoping for a repeat of that.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby cphite » Tue Sep 30, 2014 3:54 pm UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:
sardia wrote:Remember, anything that threatens the money train to the Politburo will be dealt with harshly.


However, thousands of bodies in Hong Kong will considerably hurt the money train. Right now countries are staying out of it, but if it escalates to that point, the international community is going to explode in anger. And, I assume, it's probably going to be worse than the Tiananmen reaction, for several reasons.


The trouble is that the Party has to weigh the threat of international anger versus these sorts of protests growing on the mainland. It's a safe bet that international outrage would be short-lived... some leaders would make statements of condemnation, maybe issue some symbolic sanctions. The internet (outside of China) would be ablaze with anger, at least until something else happened.

On the other hand, if the people on the mainland start to believe that organized protests can make a difference, that could have potential long term consequences for the Party. And that (from their perspective) cannot be allowed.

The combined threat of international outcry, as well as the negative economic implications to Hong Kong's economy resulting from massive violence in the financial district would probably damage the money train considerably.


But the question is, would it damage the money train MORE than popular uprisings on the mainland? Would it damage the money train more than the people getting the idea in their heads that they can organize and make a difference?

Most people know about China's censorship of the internet, media, and so forth... but there is a common misconception about how and what they censor. The common assumption is that it's anything critical of government is stamped out - but that isn't the case. People are critical of the government all the time. Sure, if you go too far or speak out too often, you might get shut down or even locked up - but for the most part, it's simply ignored.

No... if you want to see a *real* reaction from the censorship goons in China - try to organize something. Try to organize a pro-democracy rally, or a religious freedom rally; or basically any gathering of people for the purpose of forwarding an agenda. That's the shit that gets you not just blocked, but thrown in a concrete cell somewhere.

Because that is what the Party fears more than anything. The people being organized. The people thinking that they have a say, apart from what say the Party grants them.

Beijing's best bet is to hope they can mop up the situation quietly. If they can't...


China is a major economic power; the sad reality is that as such, they have enormous leeway when it comes to this sort of thing. They would face international condemnation, sure, maybe even some symbolic sanctions, but not much more than that.

Hopefully Hong Kong prevails in their democracy-seeking.


The idealist in me would love to see Hong Kong prevail... the realist is afraid that the only way that would ever happen is through violence.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Xenomortis » Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:05 pm UTC

I'm curious; what was the feeling of the people of Hong Kong when it was handed to China?
Were the people happy to no longer be overseen by the British? Were they resentful? Did they even care? Were they even consulted?

I know the agreement was they'd be largely autonomous for sometime (up to 2047?).
It seems Beijing would like to weaken that autonomy and slowly bring them in line with the rest of the PRC.
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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby eSOANEM » Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:49 pm UTC

From all the accounts I've heard (although the only one I know closely was from a white person living in Hong Kong), people didn't particularly like British rule but they feared that Chinese rule would be worse. It was a better the devil you know situation for many I think.
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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby sardia » Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:50 pm UTC

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Bri ... eclaration
Per the wiki article, uk was in a weak bargaining position and China was going to be given Hong Kong or they would take it. Sorta like a reverse Crimea. All the food and water comes from China, along with military defense

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Mambrino » Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:56 pm UTC

dalcde wrote:
sardia wrote:
Djehutynakht wrote:
However, thousands of bodies in Hong Kong will considerably hurt the money train. Right now countries are staying out of it, but if it escalates to that point, the international community is going to explode in anger. And, I assume, it's probably going to be worse than the Tiananmen reaction, for several reasons.

The combined threat of international outcry, as well as the negative economic implications to Hong Kong's economy resulting from massive violence in the financial district would probably damage the money train considerably.


Beijing's best bet is to hope they can mop up the situation quietly. If they can't...


Hopefully Hong Kong prevails in their democracy-seeking.

I cite Ukrainian crisis as my rebuttal.


Objection: In the Ukrainian crisis, it is an army vs army battle. When it comes to war, there is no clear-cut right/wrong answer. If it is army vs unarmed civillians, it's a different story.

Or to put it this way, in the Ukrainian crisis, the international stance is more like "I support Ukraine". In cases like the Tiananmen Incident, it is like "How on Earth can you do that?"


I thought sardia was talking about how the Ukrainian crisis started, the protests in Maidan. In addition to that famed EU trade agreement, they also demanded real, functioning democracy instead of government by either corrupted oligarchs or Putin's puppets. My understanding is that maybe one could call it the main point of the demonstrations; the way the pro-Russian president's government handled this specific trade deal just was symptomatic enough of all what's wrong with the then-current politics of Ukraine that it served as the spark that lighted the protests.

Instead of democracy, they got a hundred or so dead in the Maidan, Crimea occupied and even more dead in a civil war fought by government composed of mostly oligarchs against Putin's puppets (okay that's an oversimplification, but true enough). And well, I don't even remember what came of that trade deal.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Negated » Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:13 pm UTC

Xenomortis wrote:I'm curious; what was the feeling of the people of Hong Kong when it was handed to China?
Were the people happy to no longer be overseen by the British? Were they resentful? Did they even care? Were they even consulted?

I know the agreement was they'd be largely autonomous for sometime (up to 2047?).
It seems Beijing would like to weaken that autonomy and slowly bring them in line with the rest of the PRC.

Although HKers wouldn't thank Britain for taking over HK, they acknowledged that British rule turned HK from a fishing village to a modern international city, with a competent government, freedom, and rule of law. Since colonial HK was not really Chinese and not really British, there was not much nationalism around. Instead they fostered their own identity (freedom, lawfulness, money, etc) and wished to keep them. IMO the push for democracy now is more about defending their values than actually getting to vote.

During the colonial period, HK was well known for indifference towards politics, since they couldn't influence the government by votes. The government largely followed a non-intervention policy and only acted if there was a need (like public housing). So even though there were worries about the handover, HKers recognized that they had no say on the matter and just hoped for the best.

Before the 1997 handover, there was a lot of distrust towards the CCP in Hong Kong. Tiananmen Square was still fresh in their minds. Many HKers moved overseas (mainly UK, Canada, and Australia) out of fear before the handover. UK and China had to repeatedly assure them that 1 Country 2 Systems would be respected. The mood in 1997 was mostly nervous because of many uncertainties. The turnover turned out to be mostly smooth and things went largely unchanged for some years. That prompted many overseas HKers to return.

The 1C2S worked quite well until 2003, when the government moved to propose laws for the Article 23 of Basic Law that would threaten freedom of speech on pretext of national security. HKers saw that as an attack on their treasured freedom and marched in numbers. It ended with the Chief Executive resigning and legislation of Article 23 delayed indefinitely. This event changed many things. HK became increasingly political. China made moves to make HK more "patriotic", by increasing hold in media (most mainstream media are pro-government these days, to various degrees) and introducing "patriotic" education in schools. The current protest is the result of many tensions finally coming out.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby elasto » Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:20 pm UTC

"Only in HK"

Tear gas, pepper spray, feelings of anger and betrayal, crowds forced to run from riot police... and yet the protests retain that uniquely Hong Kong character.

Reporters and Hong Kong residents have shared their most surreal and charming experiences on the streets.

Doing your homework
Perhaps it isn't actually anarchic but it is definitely one of the biggest protests in Hong Kong for years. And yet students - some of whom were at the vanguard of this movement - find time to sit down and do their homework. Richard Frost for Bloomberg News tweeted this picture of children doing just that.

Apologising for the barricade you put up
An entrance to the Causeway Bay MTR station was barricaded and emblazoned with signs shouting out for democracy. In the middle was a small cardboard sign - also written by the protesters: "Sorry for the inconvenience."

Hong Kong resident Collier Nogues, who took the picture, said it is "characteristic of the feeling everywhere I went this afternoon. Generous, polite."

Deploying ancient arts of self defence with an umbrella
The humblest and most domestic of props became a protest icon after it was transformed into a shield against pepper spray and tear gas. The picture of a sole protester wielding his umbrella against the tear gas went viral online on Monday.

And when it began to rain on Tuesday, it was put to its secondary use as protection in wet weather. Residents also tweeted that protesters were distributing raincoats in Mong Kok. Police say umbrellas were also used by some protesters to threaten officers during Sunday night's unrest.

Concern for how fragrant fellow protesters are
Hong-Kong-based journalist Tom Grundy tweeted this picture of a protester proffering free shirt-fresheners. At times the temperature has been sweltering and amid the crowds things are bound to get a little bit sweaty.

And while on the streets with the protesters, the BBC's Martin Yip witnessed volunteer armies spraying people with water to keep them cool and fresh.

Keeping off the well cut grass lawn when asked by a cardboard sign
A picture on the live page of the South China Morning Post showed a sea of protesters who it noted had parted for the grass courtyard where Hong Kong's cenotaph is located. Protesters still obeyed signs telling them to keep off the grass at the monument, putting the "civil" into civil disobedience.

"Despite the crowds around the war memorial in Central, not one person is standing or sitting on the grass. There's a new cardboard sign over the usual sign telling people not to go on the grass," the Hong Kong-based paper wrote.

Being the tidiest protesters on the block
The BBC's Saira Asher reports on how diligently the protesters cleared up after themselves. "The morning is being spent mostly removing rubbish left over from last night's huge crowd. Students are picking up cigarette butts and plastic bottles, others are distributing breakfast buns. That is why those on the street are being called 'the politest protesters' by some on social media."

Recycling has also been organised by those on the streets. Many agree that the world hasn't seen organised and tidy protests quite like this before.

This is echoed by the South China Morning Post in its live page when it wrote of a bizarre incident in Causeway Bay where a man pelted protesters with rotten eggs, telling them to "go back to class and stop blocking the roads". Protesters reportedly responded by cleaning up the mess.

Most witnesses agree that despite the clashes on Sunday night and the sheer anger at China's decision to restrict who can run to be Hong Kong's leader, the mood on the streets is largely peaceful and generous. There have been incidents of commuters and angry local residents exhorting protesters to give up and leave - a reminder that not all of Hong Kong's residents agree with the demonstrations.

But for the moment it looks as if the Hong Kong protesters will keep on tidying up, creating lanes to enable smooth passage, doing their homework and of course making the demands they see as crucial to the future of Hong Kong.


(Pics at the link)

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby kingofdreams » Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:44 pm UTC

I'm torn behind the desire to see the UK in particular for symbolic purposes and the US as a practical necessity to take a public stance on this now rather then retroactively react with disapproval when it all goes pear shaped, but am afraid it'll just result in china capitalizing on it as foreign interlopers whipping up discontent.
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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Angua » Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:32 pm UTC

BBC article shameless steals from Terry Pratchett (though, no doubt he shamelessly stole it from someone first).

quote wrote:In fact it's an exaggeration with a grain of truth to say that the mainland has "one man one vote" already, in the sense of one man, President Xi Jinping, and one vote, his.
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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby dalcde » Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:10 pm UTC

Xenomortis wrote:I know the agreement was they'd be largely autonomous for sometime (up to 2047?).


I've heard that this 50-year thing (Hong Kong will remain autonomous1 for 50 years till 2047) is a metaphorical answer meaning "a long time" when Deng Xiaoping was asked about the question. It ended up written in the constitution literally.

1The actual clause is something like Hong Kong will remain "unchanged" for 50 years (Chinese: 五十年不變)

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby dalcde » Wed Oct 01, 2014 6:02 am UTC

nidhish wrote:I hope Hong kong protest succeeds in its mission , but i doubt they will last long in front of Chinese bullies . :(

From what I've seen, I'd say it's the other way round. The reason why there are so many people on the streets is the police treated the initial protesters too harshly and caused outrage. The police is now essentially taking a "do nothing" policy and wait for the protesters to get bored or other citizens to go against the protest due to the disruptions to daily life.

Unless the police decides to shoot the protesters (which might cause the protesters to retreat), whatever they do is only going to increase the scale of protests.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Adacore » Wed Oct 01, 2014 6:32 am UTC

Yeah, the policy at the moment seems to be to wait until after the public holidays without doing anything and hope the protesters decide they're not getting anywhere, get bored, and go home. The two negative routes this could go, for the Chinese government, (assuming they stick to the policy of minimal police intervention) are that the protests continue/grow after the weekend, or that the protests become increasingly disruptive/violent/revolutionary in nature. In the second case, they might be able to justify putting the protests down by force, if the protesters are too violent themselves, and China gets the timing right. I'm not sure what they'd do in the former case... how long can a policy of 'wait it out' last?

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby BattleMoose » Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:08 am UTC

I spoke to a colleague of mine who is from China (highly educated) about her perspective on the protests and the "general feeling" about democracy in China. The impression I got was the very idea of democracy doesn't really exist in their consciousness, general population of China. Or that if it does, it wouldn't be good? Media is heavily controlled. Hong Kong is of course very different in that it has been exposed to Western ideas and culture.

The short end of this is that this protest isn't going to expand out of Hong Kong to elsewhere in China.

I'm not sure how this is going to end but I am sure that the Government isn't going to concede to any demands, well, any meaningful concessions. Perhaps symbolic ones? But not so sure.

I think the Chinese government is doing the smart play at the moment, just ignore them. They aren't being disruptive, they aren't being violent so they can safely be ignored. If that changes then the narrative for intervention changes too, to the governments favour. Can they be ignored indefinitely? I think they probably can be. I don't think this protest is going to spread. I don't think the general Chinese person understands the protest, assuming they even know about it.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Soteria » Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:16 pm UTC

Yeah, a Chinese friend of mine asked me what the US would do if Taiwan held a vote to decide if they should unite with mainland China. I told him that it would really be up to the Taiwanese, which he was pretty skeptical of--he thought Americans would be angry at any president who allowed something against US interests to happen. He had a hard time with the idea that for many Americans, abiding by the results of a fair election--or the democratic ideal, if you will--is just as important as the immediate national interest.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby sardia » Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:33 pm UTC

You should have told him about the U.S. response to Hamas winning elections. It gives a more nuanced picture of what diplomatic retaliation looks like.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Soteria » Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:02 pm UTC

sardia wrote:You should have told him about the U.S. response to Hamas winning elections. It gives a more nuanced picture of what diplomatic retaliation looks like.


I didn't give that example, but I did tell him there's a difference between what we would say publicly (and the American people at large would expect) and what we might try in secret.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Mutex » Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:15 pm UTC

Hamas isn't a particularly brilliant example of democracy any more. They haven't held elections since they were voted into power in 2006, so their legitimacy has expired, and the Palestinian people don't have the option of getting rid of them without a revolution.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby sardia » Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:12 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Hamas isn't a particularly brilliant example of democracy any more. They haven't held elections since they were voted into power in 2006, so their legitimacy has expired, and the Palestinian people don't have the option of getting rid of them without a revolution.

You're digg too deep into the metaphor. The question was what the U.S. would do if a region democratically decided to do something bad for the U.S. the Hamas example is good.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Vahir » Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:52 pm UTC

Well, there's also the whole muslim brotherhood debacle in Egypt. The US wasn't exactly fostering global democracy when it tacitly approved of a military coup.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby cphite » Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:15 pm UTC

Soteria wrote:Yeah, a Chinese friend of mine asked me what the US would do if Taiwan held a vote to decide if they should unite with mainland China. I told him that it would really be up to the Taiwanese, which he was pretty skeptical of--he thought Americans would be angry at any president who allowed something against US interests to happen. He had a hard time with the idea that for many Americans, abiding by the results of a fair election--or the democratic ideal, if you will--is just as important as the immediate national interest.


The cold truth is, the only real US interest in Taiwan is trade. Whether or not Taiwan is a part of China or an independent state, as long as that trade continues, US interests are upheld. So long as the elections were fair (and there was no clear and verifiable evidence to the contrary) the US would have no reason to object, and would likely not object publicly anyway out of risk of appearing hypocritical. If trade relations were hindered, we would object to that, obviously.

If the elections were clearly not fair, the US would object; but frankly I would be very surprised if it went any further than a diplomatic objection. The US isn't interested in armed conflict against China. And any sort of meaningful economic sanction are basically off the table, as they would hurt the US economy as much (or perhaps more) than the Chinese economy.

We could potentially get involved if the Chinese were to actually invade Taiwan... The Taiwan Relations Act in theory requires the US to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion; but it leaves the actual actions taken by the US up to the current President and Congress... which essentially means don't count on it. Before anyone argues that an actual requirement exists, bear in mind that the US is technically "required" by treaty to provide armed defense to Ukraine - and you saw how that worked out.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby sardia » Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:25 pm UTC

The ambiguity is helpful when the opposing side isn't sure if you are bluffing. It breaks down when the U.S. offers too many defense deals and x percent break into conflict. Then everyone else starts calling your bluff. It's a good way to leverage limited forces while you maintain the charAde that might not be a charades.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby jestingrabbit » Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:27 am UTC

cphite wrote:bear in mind that the US is technically "required" by treaty to provide armed defense to Ukraine - and you saw how that worked out.


What treaty is this?
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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Mutex » Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:24 pm UTC

jestingrabbit wrote:
cphite wrote:bear in mind that the US is technically "required" by treaty to provide armed defense to Ukraine - and you saw how that worked out.


What treaty is this?


It was a treaty they signed in exchange for Ukraine's nuclear disarmanent. Ukraine should clearly have kept their nukes.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby jestingrabbit » Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:40 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:
jestingrabbit wrote:
cphite wrote:bear in mind that the US is technically "required" by treaty to provide armed defense to Ukraine - and you saw how that worked out.


What treaty is this?


It was a treaty they signed in exchange for Ukraine's nuclear disarmanent. Ukraine should clearly have kept their nukes.


I don't this that the Budapest Memorandum says any such thing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_M ... Assurances
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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Vahir » Fri Oct 03, 2014 2:19 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:
jestingrabbit wrote:
cphite wrote:bear in mind that the US is technically "required" by treaty to provide armed defense to Ukraine - and you saw how that worked out.


What treaty is this?


It was a treaty they signed in exchange for Ukraine's nuclear disarmanent. Ukraine should clearly have kept their nukes.


Who would they use the nukes against? The people of eastern Ukraine? It's a proxy war, not an outright invasion by Russian forces.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Oct 03, 2014 3:17 pm UTC

Vahir wrote:
Mutex wrote:
jestingrabbit wrote:
cphite wrote:bear in mind that the US is technically "required" by treaty to provide armed defense to Ukraine - and you saw how that worked out.


What treaty is this?


It was a treaty they signed in exchange for Ukraine's nuclear disarmanent. Ukraine should clearly have kept their nukes.


Who would they use the nukes against? The people of eastern Ukraine? It's a proxy war, not an outright invasion by Russian forces.


I observe that countries with nukes don't get invaded much, by proxy or not.

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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby kingofdreams » Fri Oct 03, 2014 5:43 pm UTC

Or alternatively we could have a bunch of separatists with nukes but this is straying off topic.

The until now peaceful and self-regulated protests have been disrupted by counter-protesters supposedly Mandarin speaking mainlanders (and thus identifiable by accent), bused in as opposed to the native Cantonese speaking protesters.

Could this be an attempt to escalate the situation to justify use of force in restoring calm?
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Re: Hong Kong: Streets blocked as pro-democracy protests spr

Postby Negated » Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:36 pm UTC

Some of the anti-occupy mob are probably hired from mainland, but many are actually from HK. The triads have interests in many shops in Mong Kok area and the protests affect their income. The clashes were pretty much inevitable. There are also genuine pro-Beijing people in HK. In elections pro-democratic parties typically get about 60% of the votes. The remaining 40% of the votes have to come from somewhere.


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