2016 US Presidential Election

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morriswalters
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:38 pm UTC

If your hoping, hope for a Santa Clause. I need goodies.
sardia wrote:and people just don't care.
You care, don't you? So do other people. We'll see on election day.
ucim wrote:But it's only 1932. We must never get to 1942.
If they only knew then what you know now.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:55 am UTC

morriswalters wrote:If your hoping, hope for a Santa Clause. I need goodies.You care, don't you? So do other people. We'll see on election day.
ucim wrote:But it's only 1932. We must never get to 1942.
If they only knew then what you know now.

I meant a swing state voter. I live in a blue state. =(

After a while, I begin to have contempt for people still "undecided".

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/don ... 407cde0fd2
Apparently Trump was in a soft core porno, it's still listed on his IMDB. Not that anybody would ever slut shame him for that kind of behavior.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump#Filmography
It's more legitimate than the 'sex tape' that Trump claimed 'miss piggy' was in. More ironic than substantive though.
Last edited by sardia on Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:02 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:02 am UTC

sardia wrote:
morriswalters wrote:If your hoping, hope for a Santa Clause. I need goodies.You care, don't you? So do other people. We'll see on election day.
ucim wrote:But it's only 1932. We must never get to 1942.
If they only knew then what you know now.

I meant a swing state voter. I live in a blue state. =(

After a while, I begin to have contempt for people still "undecided".

I feel you. At this point, if they're undecided, they just haven't been paying attention.
There's a certain amount of freedom involved in cycling: you're self-propelled and decide exactly where to go. If you see something that catches your eye to the left, you can veer off there, which isn't so easy in a car, and you can't cover as much ground walking.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:04 am UTC

I on the other hand live in a red state.
sardia wrote:After a while, I begin to have contempt for people still "undecided".
It's easy enough to feel that way.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:38 am UTC

Liri wrote:
sardia wrote:
morriswalters wrote:If your hoping, hope for a Santa Clause. I need goodies.You care, don't you? So do other people. We'll see on election day.
ucim wrote:But it's only 1932. We must never get to 1942.
If they only knew then what you know now.

I meant a swing state voter. I live in a blue state. =(

After a while, I begin to have contempt for people still "undecided".

I feel you. At this point, if they're undecided, they just haven't been paying attention.


I know right? They should be voting for my candidate.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:42 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:
Liri wrote:
sardia wrote:
morriswalters wrote:If your hoping, hope for a Santa Clause. I need goodies.You care, don't you? So do other people. We'll see on election day.
ucim wrote:But it's only 1932. We must never get to 1942.
If they only knew then what you know now.

I meant a swing state voter. I live in a blue state. =(

After a while, I begin to have contempt for people still "undecided".

I feel you. At this point, if they're undecided, they just haven't been paying attention.


I know right? They should be voting for my candidate.

Well, I won't tell them who to vote for. I might think they're idiots/racists if they vote for the guy, but hey.
There's a certain amount of freedom involved in cycling: you're self-propelled and decide exactly where to go. If you see something that catches your eye to the left, you can veer off there, which isn't so easy in a car, and you can't cover as much ground walking.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:43 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:
Liri wrote:
sardia wrote:
morriswalters wrote:If your hoping, hope for a Santa Clause. I need goodies.You care, don't you? So do other people. We'll see on election day.
ucim wrote:But it's only 1932. We must never get to 1942.
If they only knew then what you know now.

I meant a swing state voter. I live in a blue state. =(

After a while, I begin to have contempt for people still "undecided".

I feel you. At this point, if they're undecided, they just haven't been paying attention.


I know right? They should be voting for my candidate.

That means they picked someone. It's undecided or third party. Lame.... =\

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:39 am UTC

This fucking guy...

I honestly feel a little bad for his handlers.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby EdgarJPublius » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:09 am UTC

morriswalters wrote:
EdgarJPublius wrote:How sure are you that a situation equivalent to internment camps, or 'virtual' internment camps doesn't exist in the U.S. right now?
I can think of three with little or no effort. The US Penal System, housing segregation by both race and income, and the mental health establishment.


Other answers I would have accepted include Terrorist-Watch/No-Fly Lists and the literal internment of tens of thousands of people, including U.S. citizens, some for years, by ICE.

At this point, I don't care about possible clones of Adolph Hitler, I'd settle for being able to vote for a candidate that doesn't have a fundamentally repugnant position on basic human rights issues.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:46 am UTC

EdgarJPublius wrote:
morriswalters wrote:
EdgarJPublius wrote:How sure are you that a situation equivalent to internment camps, or 'virtual' internment camps doesn't exist in the U.S. right now?
I can think of three with little or no effort. The US Penal System, housing segregation by both race and income, and the mental health establishment.


Other answers I would have accepted include Terrorist-Watch/No-Fly Lists and the literal internment of tens of thousands of people, including U.S. citizens, some for years, by ICE.

At this point, I don't care about possible clones of Adolph Hitler, I'd settle for being able to vote for a candidate that doesn't have a fundamentally repugnant position on basic human rights issues.

It's not going to happen right now because people care about their interests more than they care about general human rights.* Having a repugnant position on basic human rights won't matter until they come for YOUR(or their) basic human rights. What could you possibly say to an anti-baby-killing voter that would make him agree to killing babies in exchange for not killing mexicans/blacks/muslims? If you're worried that I'm coming for your guns, the last thing on your mind is the lack of civil rights among minorities. If enemies are everywhere, or your future looks crappier than your past, then burning the world sounds mighty tempting.

Positions change over time, the more flexible voters become, the easier it'll get. Or we move onto the next fight of the decade.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby elasto » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:14 am UTC

EdgarJPublius wrote:
morriswalters wrote:
EdgarJPublius wrote:How sure are you that a situation equivalent to internment camps, or 'virtual' internment camps doesn't exist in the U.S. right now?
I can think of three with little or no effort. The US Penal System, housing segregation by both race and income, and the mental health establishment.


Other answers I would have accepted include Terrorist-Watch/No-Fly Lists and the literal internment of tens of thousands of people, including U.S. citizens, some for years, by ICE.

At this point, I don't care about possible clones of Adolph Hitler, I'd settle for being able to vote for a candidate that doesn't have a fundamentally repugnant position on basic human rights issues.

The irony is that we've just had 8 years of Obama - a guy who I personally believe to be as smart and decent as you or I, and who genuinely cares about human rights.

Sure, the president isn't a dictator but even he either by commission or omission bought into the security theatre methodology.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:22 am UTC

sardia wrote:That means they picked someone.
They make me nervous but undecided means undecided. They're still reachable.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:08 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:When Republicans talk about voter-fraud in Pennsylvania, they're typically talking about the black neighborhoods in Philadelphia where Romney got little to no votes. Trump is calling for his supporters (who are overwhelmingly white) to go watch those polls for reasons he refuses to specify ("You know what I'm talking about").


Voter fraud is the obvious thing. Republicans love to blame it, and Trump loves blaming others for his failures. If he fails in the general, he's going to blame voter fraud and Crooked Hillary. You know this to be true.

I'm reminded of the functionalist argument for Hitler -- that the Holocaust didn't happen because Hitler wanted to kill all Jews; it happened because Hitler used his supporters' fear of Jews to create a powerful, violent, anti-semitic political machine. Once this machine started rolling, he wasn't going to stand in its way.


That's giving Hitler a little much credit. Yeah, he's a product of his time, and sure, anti-Semitism in his environment helped produce him, but Hitler tended to pursue things to extremes, not to be controlled entirely by pragmatism. Large shifts happened for no other reason than that Hitler wanted them. It'd doubtful that the scale and purposefulness of the Holocaust could have been achieved if Hitler didn't really care about them. Useful enemies are like whipping boys. You hit them, but you keep them around. Hitler had no particular need to kill en masse. He wasn't weak in power and forced into it by enemies demanding this.

Why are so many death camps in Poland? Because anti-Semitism was higher there, and captured Poland had less political power. They were keeping them out of sight. That doesn't square with "I don't want to do this, but everyone's demanding it".

sardia wrote:It's not going to happen right now because people care about their interests more than they care about general human rights.* Having a repugnant position on basic human rights won't matter until they come for YOUR(or their) basic human rights. What could you possibly say to an anti-baby-killing voter that would make him agree to killing babies in exchange for not killing mexicans/blacks/muslims? If you're worried that I'm coming for your guns, the last thing on your mind is the lack of civil rights among minorities. If enemies are everywhere, or your future looks crappier than your past, then burning the world sounds mighty tempting.

Positions change over time, the more flexible voters become, the easier it'll get. Or we move onto the next fight of the decade.


That's essentially why compromise is difficult. Most people have at least *something* they don't wish to compromise. No deal's gonna be arranged if both parties have to offer the things they care about most.

And, we don't really get a lot of selection in terms of presidential candidates. There isn't a good compromise candidate. Sure, sure, that's what the primary is for, maybe, but that's within a party. It doesn't really exist to create compromise between parties.
Last edited by Tyndmyr on Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:19 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dauric » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:18 pm UTC

ahammel wrote:This fucking guy...

I honestly feel a little bad for his handlers.


tl;dr: Trump has a Town Hall to prep for Debate #2 with Hillary, could only make it through 12 of 20 questions posed from a friendly moderator before leaving.

Reading this I could only imagine that Dumpster Fire had reached the level of needing a new adjective: Trumpster Fire.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:35 pm UTC

Dauric wrote:
ahammel wrote:This fucking guy...

I honestly feel a little bad for his handlers.


tl;dr: Trump has a Town Hall to prep for Debate #2 with Hillary, could only make it through 12 of 20 questions posed from a friendly moderator before leaving.

Reading this I could only imagine that Dumpster Fire had reached the level of needing a new adjective: Trumpster Fire.
One of those questions was "who are you rooting for in the baseball playoffs?". Dude is allergic to work.

“I said forget debate prep. I mean, give me a break,” Trump said at one point. “Do you really think that Hillary Clinton is debate-prepping for three or four days?”
Of course that's what she's doing, you lazy sod! And she's already better at debating than you!
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby PeteP » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:52 pm UTC

He really tends to project if he seriously think Clinton doesn't spends much time preparing, of course she has many other things to do but she will still be really well prepared. Also 3-4 days? Does he mean that as pure prep time or does he think she will literally only begin preparing 2 days before like it was some ungraded exam? Not that I am not happy about him not preparing, Hillary is almost back to her highest point in the 538 model after the last debate.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby EdgarJPublius » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:27 pm UTC

sardia wrote: What could you possibly say to an anti-baby-killing voter that would make him agree to killing babies in exchange for not killing mexicans/blacks/muslims? If you're worried that I'm coming for your guns, the last thing on your mind is the lack of civil rights among minorities. If enemies are everywhere, or your future looks crappier than your past, then burning the world sounds mighty tempting.


I have trouble seeing a significant difference between them and myself. If they can be targeted then it'd be far too easy for some group that I'm a part of to be othered next. Anyone who's been to high-school should have an understanding of that. last week it was the Irish, this week the Blacks, next Mexicans, after that who knows? The Nerds? Jocks? They're all just people to me.

If my vote won't offer even the chance of protection, then can you really blame me when I cling to my guns?
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:59 pm UTC

Trump is caught on a hot mic a decade ago making extremely disparaging remarks regarding women (and talking glibly about trying to seduce a married woman). Warning, explicit language.

Usually I'd say this would be a big problem for a candidate, but with Trump, I genuinely have no idea. It's weird to me that this is being released only now, but less weird when you consider that a lot of people probably have stuff on this guy, and they're doling it out piece by piece all the way up to the weeks just before the election.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:10 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:Trump is caught on a hot mic a decade ago making extremely disparaging remarks regarding women (and talking glibly about trying to seduce a married woman). Warning, explicit language.
The problem is not that he used bad words, it's that he's describing his habit of grabbing women by the crotch without their consent.

Here's the entire text of his "apology", by the way:
This was locker room banter, a private conversation that took place many years ago. Bill Clinton has said far worse to me on the golf course — not even close. I apologize if anyone was offended.
Homeboy thinks he did nothing wrong.
Last edited by ahammel on Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:18 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:16 pm UTC

I didn't even make it past the part where he describes trying to have sex with a married woman before I stopped reading.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:19 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:I didn't even make it past the part where he describes trying to have sex with a married woman before I stopped reading.
I think that's what you call "burying the lede".
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:39 pm UTC

He's the gift that keeps on giving.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Lazar » Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:14 pm UTC

ahammel wrote:Here's the entire text of his "apology", by the way:
This was locker room banter, a private conversation that took place many years ago. Bill Clinton has said far worse to me on the golf course — not even close. I apologize if anyone was offended.
Homeboy thinks he did nothing wrong.

Even the most insincere shell of an apology is rare for him: his usual approach is to concede nothing. This time he may know that he's in trouble.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby DaBigCheez » Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:19 pm UTC

"I apologize if anyone was offended" is pretty much a textbook non-pology.

...But you're not wrong that it's still way more than you'd usually see out of Trump.
existential_elevator wrote:It's like a jigsaw puzzle of Hitler pissing on Mother Theresa. No individual piece is offensive, but together...

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:31 pm UTC

Compare and contrast:
Billy Bush wrote:Obviously I’m embarrassed and ashamed. It’s no excuse, but this happened eleven years ago – I was younger, less mature, and acted foolishly in playing along. I’m very sorry.
http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/billy-bush-caught-on-same-hot-mic-as-donald-trump/307216
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:36 am UTC

Paul Ryan has to share a stage with him in a matter of days. Let's see what kind of man Ryan is, is he a pure politician or does he have scruples? But this really shouldn't surprise anyone, given Trump's mouth on Howard Stern's show.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:44 am UTC

The only thing that surprises me is that he's apparently still got somewhere around 40% of the popular vote.

What sort of person looks at this mess and says, 'yeah, I want that, let's make that our President'?

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:48 am UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:The only thing that surprises me is that he's apparently still got somewhere around 40% of the popular vote.

What sort of person looks at this mess and says, 'yeah, I want that, let's make that our President'?

There's been no time for the polls to move in response to this story
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby commodorejohn » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:50 am UTC

ahammel wrote:
The Great Hippo wrote:The only thing that surprises me is that he's apparently still got somewhere around 40% of the popular vote.

What sort of person looks at this mess and says, 'yeah, I want that, let's make that our President'?

There's been no time for the polls to move in response to this story

True, though on the other hand it's not like absolutely anybody who's been paying attention didn't already know what kind of a person he was. This is hardly any kind of a surprise.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Sat Oct 08, 2016 1:07 am UTC

Yeah, I meant in a more general sense; like, at this juncture -- as bad as this is -- there's a not-insignificant part of me that can't imagine it being the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back?

If this does end up knocking his popularity down by a significant amount, I'll make the appropriate adjustments to my cynicism-quotient.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Sat Oct 08, 2016 1:11 am UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:Yeah, I meant in a more general sense; like, at this juncture -- as bad as this is -- there's a not-insignificant part of me that can't imagine it being the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back?

If this does end up knocking his popularity down by a significant amount, I'll make the appropriate adjustments to my cynicism-quotient.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... ing-worse/
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Sat Oct 08, 2016 1:29 am UTC

I'm not talking about the news cycle's impact on the polls; I'm talking about what we already knew about Trump going in. His hostility toward women is well-documented and wholly public; his bizarre birther campaign against Obama was news years before this Presidential bid. He's an ex-reality TV star real-estate "mogul" who's mostly famous for being rich, having a cool last name, dozens of failed business ventures, an excess of indulgences, and displays so ostentatious they make peacocks go "whoa dude, tone it down". And as far as anyone can tell, he's directed his campaign like Uwe Boll directs movies.

I mean, yeah, this is a new kind of low, but he's already set the bar down so far that I'm not entirely convinced it's going to put a dent in the numbers. If you saw Trump a year ago and thought he was your kind of guy, then I can't see how this is going to make him not your guy.

Under normal circumstances I would imagine this would be the death-knell for someone's campaign, but Trump's success has forced me to adjust a lot of my presumptions about elections. I would like to be wrong, and I'm hoping the numbers will eventually show that I'm being way too cynical.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Sat Oct 08, 2016 1:37 am UTC

The voter base is highly reactive to women. That's why Trump backed off on punishing abortion mothers and stopped talking about women for weeks. Everything else is stuff the GOP base likes. They like that Obama is an other. They like that liberals are the enemy and they're enemies everywhere. That's why Trump doubles down on The racist or neo Nazis stuff, but apologizes for his comments on women.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Sat Oct 08, 2016 1:48 am UTC

The other part of this formula that I have failed to mention:

I'm an extremely quiet introvert who has done significant amounts of work in the blue collar sector. There are many times that I've been privy to the conversations middle-class laborers have when there are no women among them.

And while those conversations are not always like this, there have been contexts where the stuff Trump is saying would have caused nary an eyebrow to raise. I also have a strong suspicion that the men who I saw who talk like that correlate strongly with men who support Trump -- and this news story will only make them support him more.

I mean, yeah, he'll ostracize women voters, but hasn't he already? I imagined that ship sailed quite a long time ago.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Sat Oct 08, 2016 1:51 am UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:The other part of this formula that I have failed to mention:

I'm an extremely quiet introvert who has done significant amounts of work in the blue collar sector. There are many times that I've been privy to the conversations middle-class laborers have when there are no women among them.

And while those conversations are not always like this, there have been contexts where the stuff Trump is saying would have caused nary an eyebrow to raise. I also have a strong suspicion that the men who I saw who talk like that correlate strongly with men who support Trump -- and this news story will only make them support him more.

I mean, yeah, he'll ostracize women voters, but hasn't he already? I imagined that ship sailed quite a long time ago.

He has not. White Republican religious women are a great base of his. He takes great pains(for a Trump) to not offend them. Why do white women support him? Racism and scotus judges. That's worth 30%support right there.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:04 am UTC

Trump is no longer invited to Paul Ryan's event on Saturday: http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/ ... story.html
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:21 am UTC

sardia wrote:He has not. White Republican religious women are a great base of his. He takes great pains(for a Trump) to not offend them. Why do white women support him? Racism and scotus judges. That's worth 30%support right there.
I was under the impression that -- in regards to past Republican Presidential nominees -- he had record-low support among white female Republicans?
ahammel wrote:Trump is no longer invited to Paul Ryan's event on Saturday: http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/ ... story.html
Okay, so; cynicism quotient adjusted a quarter of a point downward, I think? That seems like a pretty big deal -- though it's hard for me to tell. Politics are weird.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:28 am UTC

Oh, this is too good: Trump's excuse for not being at the event is that he has to prep for the debate: https://twitter.com/deray/status/784567572775731200
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:34 am UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:]I was under the impression that -- in regards to past Republican Presidential nominees -- he had record-low support among white female Republicans?
ahammel wrote:Trump is no longer invited to Paul Ryan's event on Saturday: http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/ ... story.html
Okay, so; cynicism quotient adjusted a quarter of a point downward, I think? That seems like a pretty big deal -- though it's hard for me to tell. Politics are weird.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sub ... -election/
30%among college women, 40%among uneducated women. It'll cost him the election, but that's still a lot of support given how awful he is.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Sat Oct 08, 2016 4:27 am UTC

Well, he's released an apology video:

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status ... 3458224128

He apologises for saying that stuff (although not for any of his actual behaviour), and then tries to pivot to "but Bill Clinton did way worse stuff". That's really the only angle they can run with, I guess.
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