2016 US Presidential Election

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Tyndmyr
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:15 pm UTC

It's confusing to me why people on the left are blaming Comey for being super partisan for the email announcement, when they were so eager to accept his conclusions earlier. I would assume he has something that, by the book, requires investigation. It may be inconvenient, and delivery of this evidence might well be motivated by partisanship on someone's part, but it isn't necessarily partisanship on his part.

And an investigation doesn't imply guilt or innocence. Just that there's sufficient evidence to investigate. The conclusion of "Hillary managed email terribly" should already be baked into assumptions, and shouldn't be a change at this point. I mean, it probably plays well into existing narratives, but it's not THAT shocking. And Comey's actions are not particularly weird.

KnightExemplar wrote:Hell, I watched as Trump played "guess and check" for several weeks to figure out exactly what the Republican viewpoint was on abortion. (Women should be punished if they get abortions! Oh wait, thats bad? Erm... I mean, something something... make America Great Again!) Trump is a policy-shifting snake who guess-and-checked his way to his current positions.


Yeah. That's the key, really. Him approaching the abortion issue looked like a naïve pro-choice person attempting to don the strawman of what he thought pro-life people want. It was...really awkward.

He's just shifting to whatever seems to be popular. He'll keep doing the same. If, once president, a bunch of people yell really loudly for something stupid, I do not expect him to maintain prior positions, or loyalty to the base that elected him, or anything else. He'll do whatever seems like a good idea at the time, with fairly little thought devoted to it. That's highly worrisome.

It means you're not actually getting a basket of policies, regardless of if he's supporting them now.

Liri wrote:I voted on Tuesday. I was the 6931st or something at my polling station. It does feel good to have it out of the way.

The BBC had an article on low voter turnout in the US. They interviewed one young woman who said she wasn't voting because she didn't know enough about the candidates' positions, rather than learning more about them...

I would be mortified giving an answer like that. What a stupidly lazy route to take.

Edit: Here's the article.


It is lazy, but it's also honest. I'd rather people did this than not research and vote anyways. And a LOT of people do that. The best scenario is where everyone educates themselves and votes, but short of that, I'll take honesty.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tirear » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:16 pm UTC

sardia wrote:early voters aren't allowed to change their minds.

That depends on where you live and how close to the election we are talking about. For example, Minnesota has the following:
WHAT IF I RETURNED MY BALLOT AND WANT TO CHANGE MY VOTE?

You can ask to cancel your ballot until the close of business one week before Election Day. After that time, you cannot cancel your ballot. To cancel your ballot, contact the election office that sent your ballot. Your options are to have a new ballot mailed; vote in person at your local election office; or vote at your polling place on Election Day.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:25 pm UTC

Sounds like a nice system. Best of both worlds.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mutex » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:30 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:That and nuclear waste is more than just spent fuel, it's also the contaminated parts that have to be locked away. Really, the best place for that stuff is in an abandoned coal mine...


I think it's more about the incredibly prohibitive cost of launching that much material into orbit and then getting it on a trajectory that is unlikely to ever return to Earth (especially if you want to drop it into the Sun or something). It's a lot of mass and a lot of delta-V required.

Tirear wrote:
WHAT IF I RETURNED MY BALLOT AND WANT TO CHANGE MY VOTE?

You can ask to cancel your ballot until the close of business one week before Election Day. After that time, you cannot cancel your ballot. To cancel your ballot, contact the election office that sent your ballot. Your options are to have a new ballot mailed; vote in person at your local election office; or vote at your polling place on Election Day.


Does that mean your vote isn't guaranteed to be secret? If they keep track of which ballot was yours, then it must have your name on it, along with who you voted for. When you go to a polling station, they keep track of who has voted but they don't know whose ballot paper belongs to who.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dauric » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:45 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:That and nuclear waste is more than just spent fuel, it's also the contaminated parts that have to be locked away. Really, the best place for that stuff is in an abandoned coal mine...


I think it's more about the incredibly prohibitive cost of launching that much material into orbit and then getting it on a trajectory that is unlikely to ever return to Earth (especially if you want to drop it into the Sun or something). It's a lot of mass and a lot of delta-V required.

^This. In order to get nuclear waste in to the sun you have to get it -beyond- the moon, so that the sun's gravitational force is more significant than Earths, then you have to -massively- decelerate the payload or else it stays in a stable orbit, possibly still intersecting earth's own orbit, meaning it has the chance of falling back in to Earth's gravitational well...

Tirear wrote:
WHAT IF I RETURNED MY BALLOT AND WANT TO CHANGE MY VOTE?

You can ask to cancel your ballot until the close of business one week before Election Day. After that time, you cannot cancel your ballot. To cancel your ballot, contact the election office that sent your ballot. Your options are to have a new ballot mailed; vote in person at your local election office; or vote at your polling place on Election Day.


Does that mean your vote isn't guaranteed to be secret? If they keep track of which ballot was yours, then it must have your name on it, along with who you voted for. When you go to a polling station, they keep track of who has voted but they don't know whose ballot paper belongs to who.


Colorado has been on an "automatic" mail-in ballot system since the mid-terms two years ago, we get mail-in ballots whether someone requests them or not. The return envelope has your name, but inside that is a heavy "Privacy" envelope, then inside that is the ballot itself. The envelopes aren't opened to be counted until that week before election day deadline, so as long as you put in your request before the ballot counting begins it's still sealed in the return envelope. Once ballot counts begin the privacy envelope is removed from the return envelope removing the voters name from the ballot itself.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:56 pm UTC

All this talk about delta v to the sun is missing two key things. 1 We could just target the moon with nukes. And 2, we use the nukes themselves as propulsion. This is totally not an excuse to restart Project Orion.

This revelation sucks for another reason, it eats up time Clinton could have been using to crush Trump. After all, our stereotypical view of a Trump supporter is an uneducated redneck skin head screaming out racial epithets. This gives your dad or uncle a pass as he quietly funds the bulk of Trump's campaign. Highly skilled highly paid whites are the core of Trump's Campaign, and we need to recognize the danger they present.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:04 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:It's confusing to me why people on the left are blaming Comey for being super partisan for the email announcement, when they were so eager to accept his conclusions earlier. I would assume he has something that, by the book, requires investigation. It may be inconvenient, and delivery of this evidence might well be motivated by partisanship on someone's part, but it isn't necessarily partisanship on his part.

And an investigation doesn't imply guilt or innocence. Just that there's sufficient evidence to investigate. The conclusion of "Hillary managed email terribly" should already be baked into assumptions, and shouldn't be a change at this point. I mean, it probably plays well into existing narratives, but it's not THAT shocking. And Comey's actions are not particularly weird.


Because he violated DOJ policy and released vague information in a way he would know would be sensationalized by the media and be used by political opponents to spread misinformation close to the election when he has no reason to believe there is anything here that points to the guilt of Clinton, and it has affected her in the polls. And it's not just the Left that is criticizing Comey, people on the right are too (those not using this bit of nothing as a tool to manipulate the public).

People will say "It doesn't mean guilty or innocent" but they still speculate that there must be something there if he thought it important enough to share with the public, and then that affects the way people vote. Because even if you don't explicitly call someone a criminal, leaving it so vague in details is going to result in absolutely nothing but speculation - as we have seen.

Anyway, here's Eric Holder on Comey:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opin ... story.html
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby DaBigCheez » Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:46 pm UTC

The whole e-mail thing mostly seems to me like much ado about nothing - and Weiner's laptop, with e-mails that might, possibly, be peripherally *related* to Clinton, seems more like getting excited about the gravitational lensing *around* nothing. I agree that it points to "Clinton's kinda sloppy with infosec", and that that's not an entirely trivial flaw to have in a sensitive position such as the Presidency, but on the scale of things I'm worried about, it's pretty low.

But with that said, I saw an interesting post on google plus making the claim that the e-mail issue, including FBI investigation, is not *solely* about Clinton herself, but part of an ongoing dispute between DOJ/DOD and State about handling of classified material and information security more generally - that, in essence, the agencies' processes for classification/declassification and handling of sensitive material are largely individual to that agency, that DoE, DoJ and DoD prefer very strict, elaborate procedures to ensure security, that State prefers much looser restrictions in order to get things done, and that when the agencies interact, they can each become very frustrated with how the other handles data.

Or, as they put it, "State, on the other hand, regularly discloses information classified by other branches of government without first consulting the agencies which classified it for a formal classification review. This is because when a drone strike goes FUBAR and kills a dozen Pakistani soldiers, the government doesn't have the time to fiddle around for six months deciding whether to declassify the reason for the strike. Either the Secretary of State or the Pakistani head of mission is going to need to be on the phone in fifteen minutes, apologizing profusely to the senior diplomats of a nuclear power, or heads will roll. This being Pakistan, this is only barely a metaphor."

Anyone have any additional insight on whether this is likely an accurate representation? Doesn't mean Clinton wasn't sloppy with infosec, but could shed some additional light on the institutional practices that helped lead to it, and a better understanding of the investigation as a whole, if true.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:47 pm UTC

Eh? Who on the right is criticizing Comey for this action? I mean, they might be criticizing him for not being sufficiently anti-Hillary, but otherwise, I can't see what they'd be upset over.

I mean, he is sort of supposed to tell Congress what's going on, yes? We need *some* degree of transparency.

And they probably don't have *all* the details yet. If they did, the investigation would be over. The vagueness is probably because he doesn't want to get over-specific over something that more details might be uncovered about.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:56 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Eh? Who on the right is criticizing Comey for this action? I mean, they might be criticizing him for not being sufficiently anti-Hillary, but otherwise, I can't see what they'd be upset over.


Here's a couple (and these guys are pretty far right):
https://twitter.com/WalshFreedom/status ... 5663290368

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/29/us/po ... .html?_r=0
“This is as bad for Comey as it is for Hillary,” said Tom Fitton, the president of Judicial Watch, a conservative advocacy group that has successfully sued for access to thousands of Mrs. Clinton’s private emails.

Mr. Fitton said the cryptic nature of Mr. Comey’s letter to Congress begged for an explanation of what new material the F.B.I. had found, whether it involved national security material relevant to the initial investigation, and why it was not found earlier.

“This letter raises all sorts of questions that Comey and the F.B.I. should have to answer,” Mr. Fitton said. “They can’t roll this out in the middle of a presidential campaign and just leave it at that.”
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:11 pm UTC

I suspect they want the additional detail because they believe he's hiding some smoking gun that'll totally nab Hillary, and that his lack of detail is somehow covering for her.

This seems optimistic.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby GodShapedBullet » Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:32 pm UTC

Seeing Joe Walsh criticize the Comey decision was heartwarming. I don't follow him on Twitter, and for the most part I only ever see his tweets when he says something that the generally left-leaning people I follow think is worthy of ridicule (happens with some regularity), and my impression of him in general was that he was a hyperpartisan bonehead.

It's been exhausting watching a thousand instances of people talking past each other this election, so seeing someone I thought of as a hyperpartisan bonehead even come close to saying something that the Clinton camp was saying was a breath of fresh air.

This is not to say that I think Walsh is correct (need to know more) or that I no longer think he is a hyperpartisan bonehead (need to know more).

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:03 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:I suspect they want the additional detail because they believe he's hiding some smoking gun that'll totally nab Hillary, and that his lack of detail is somehow covering for her.

This seems optimistic.


My impression is that, unlike most conservatives, they are being rational and don't assume that where there's fog there's fire. They are angry at Comey because he created this whole media circus without giving the public the information to have any idea of what the actual circumstances were. These people want evidence against Clinton, they don't want to have their time wasted over nothing.

GodShapedBullet wrote:This is not to say that I think Walsh is correct (need to know more) or that I no longer think he is a hyperpartisan bonehead (need to know more).


Just because someones words show they have some integrity doesn't mean they aren't a colossal douche.

EDIT:

Now, on the other hand, here is a right-winger worried that the investigation might move quickly if there is nothing there (for an example of someone with no integrity):

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/44 ... g-see-here

EDIT 2:

And now the former Attorney General under George W. Bush, Alberto Gonzales, is attacking Comey:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/31/politics/ ... ey-letter/ (Ignore the title in the link - CNN likes to edit stories instead of writing new ones because it generates better clicks, even at the expense of use experience).
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:51 pm UTC

In fairness, I believe that person is implying that they will rush to say "nothing to see here" regardless of if there actually is. It plays into the narrative of people not holding Clinton accountable for stuff, which is pretty common on the right.

Now, since it doesn't actually present any evidence, it's not actually valuable for making that case, seems to be just a passing shot at her.

I think I'm gonna be drinking for election day.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dauric » Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:01 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:I think I'm gonna be drinking for election day.


Election day drinking game:

Take a drink.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:02 pm UTC

I think he's trying to imply that, but I don't think it comes off as genuine - I think he's afraid it might help Hillary in the election if there isn't anything there and they determine so quickly.

Anyway, I'm glad I moved to a state that legalized recreational marijuana.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Sableagle » Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:17 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Does that mean your vote isn't guaranteed to be secret? If they keep track of which ballot was yours, then it must have your name on it, along with who you voted for. When you go to a polling station, they keep track of who has voted but they don't know whose ballot paper belongs to who.
Here, they note your electoral roll number next to the ballot paper number you were assigned, or the other way round, or maybe both. There's no "James L. Hutchens of 23 Sycamore Avenue" on the piece of paper with the X next to the Ponies For All candidate, but there is a paper trail that could be used to identify your ballot paper. Handy if they're investigating alleged voter fraud, but I haven't personally reviewed their datasec procedures regarding those records so I don't know who could find out how I voted or how easily.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:23 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:I think he's trying to imply that, but I don't think it comes off as genuine - I think he's afraid it might help Hillary in the election if there isn't anything there and they determine so quickly.

Anyway, I'm glad I moved to a state that legalized recreational marijuana.


*shrug* In my experience, people engaging in partisan fears like that typically have surprisingly little self-awareness when it comes to assessing a threat as genuine. Clinton kills people for sport? Sure, why not? There isn't a lot of critical thought devoted to it, people are just quick to cling to anything that looks bad for the opposition, and people getting in the way of that MUST be somehow the enemy.

So, this whole thing is a lot bigger than it rationally should be. At worst it's...what, a few more details about how Clinton handled email security poorly? Feh. There's already adequate evidence to demonstrate her shortcoming there. And we're unlikely to get anything really juicy about other topics.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:02 pm UTC

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... h-clinton/
Even without the Comey, Trump continues to gain on Clinton. He now has the same chance of winning as the cubs do of winning the world series, 25%.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:09 pm UTC

Some tightening is to be expected. Probably won't be even odds by election day, though.

In the event Trump *does* win, buckle in for seventy thousand "Dewey Defeats Truman" references.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:27 pm UTC

sardia wrote:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-comey-or-not-trump-continues-to-narrow-gap-with-clinton/
Even without the Comey, Trump continues to gain on Clinton. He now has the same chance of winning as the cubs do of winning the world series, 25%.


I think Sam Wang has a pretty good model too, and he's got Clinton at 99%.

http://election.princeton.edu/

538 is a lot more complex, tries to adjust for a lot of things, and the percentages tends to be a lot less stable with regular swings of 25%, while Sam Wang always takes the median and the probabilities fluctuate very little. I'm not sure who's right, but I take both into account and stay pretty confident Hillary is going to win. I think the amount of variation the 538 model has shows makes me concerned about how sound the model is.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:34 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:I think Sam Wang has a pretty good model too, and he's got Clinton at 99%.

http://election.princeton.edu/

I always get a little nervous when pundits/op-ed folks say Trump is the "culmination of a trend" or something to that effect. He's absolutely a product of the GOP since the Reagan years (and before), but the culmination? Eight years ago, most people thought Sarah Palin was the tipping point, but at least she was an actual governor. What if in 4 years, the most competent person they put out who makes it through the primary is a Ben Carson? Hearing him talk about issues was downright creepy.

I enjoy 538 because they at least *talk* about their model and admit failings. They also don't do much editorializing. On the other hand, for their super-complex model to miss something like early voting is pretty striking. Even the fact that they have three separate models is a bit indicative that Nate's had trouble making a one-size-fits-all one.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:41 pm UTC

Liri wrote:
Thesh wrote:I think Sam Wang has a pretty good model too, and he's got Clinton at 99%.

http://election.princeton.edu/

I always get a little nervous when pundits/op-ed folks say Trump is the "culmination of a trend" or something to that effect. He's absolutely a product of the GOP since the Reagan years (and before), but the culmination? Eight years ago, most people thought Sarah Palin was the tipping point, but at least she was an actual governor. What if in 4 years, the most competent person they put out who makes it through the primary is a Ben Carson? Hearing him talk about issues was downright creepy.

I enjoy 538 because they at least *talk* about their model and admit failings. They also don't do much editorializing. On the other hand, for their super-complex model to miss something like early voting is pretty striking. Even the fact that they have three separate models is a bit indicative that Nate's had trouble making a one-size-fits-all one.
The 538 staff reaaaaaaaaly hate the now-cast, to be fair. That leaves two models that they actually care about.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:43 pm UTC

Yeah, the now-cast isn't really supposed to be predictive, so I don't count that one.

I think part of the problem with early voting is there's just not enough data on it.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:58 pm UTC

Heh. I heard them say they hate it when Nate was out of the room, too.

And yeah, I feel like I read that only ~38 states release info about early voting numbers?
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:04 am UTC

My understanding is that Trump needs a bunch of polls in a bunch of states to be wrong (in his favour) to win. If the current state of the polls is accurate but imprecise, he loses. The 538 model thinks polling errors are strongly correlated with one another, so if pollster a in Pennsylvania is overstating HRCs numbers by five points, then it's likely that pollster b in Florida is off by the same amount. A model that thinks that errors among pollsters and states more or less independent doesn't give Trump much of a chance.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Yakk » Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:26 am UTC

The alfa bank trump connection is strange.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... ussia.html
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:37 am UTC

Yakk wrote:The alfa bank trump connection is strange.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... ussia.html

Not to knock slate but do you have any corroborating sources besides them? We aren't Breitbart, here we have standards.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sen ... ys-letter/
At the very least, comey will cost Hillary the Senate. I wonder if Hillary can just take the hit and keep going. Right now she's taking a risk by keeping the email stuff in the news contesting it. It's not like she has much recourse for the damage Comey did to her, so what's the point in prolonging it?

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Tue Nov 01, 2016 3:04 am UTC

Well, in 2012 fivethirtyeight had Obama and Romney tied (which Sam Wang gave Romney a 60% chance), and in the end Obama won by a margin of 0.88% of the vote. So, if (based on my speculation) this is because of the Dems massive GOTV operation in Florida, the polls may be underestimating Hillary like they did Romney.

Also, I'm curious if all the criticisms of Comey will allow the shock of Comey's statement to wear off and help bring some votes back to her, and then maybe a little more as backlash from Comey - at the very least, it cannot hurt Clinton if all the conversation is about the ethics of what Comey did.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:41 pm UTC

Yeah, the big-name news sites have largely moved to critiquing Comey, which isn't the same thing as defending Clinton, but still. Comey was already irresponsible talking about her "extreme carelessness" or whatever in the same breath as not recommending charges.

This is what the NYT had to say about the Alfa Bank business:
NYT wrote:F.B.I. officials spent weeks examining computer data showing an odd stream of activity to a Trump Organization server and Alfa Bank. Computer logs obtained by The New York Times show that two servers at Alfa Bank sent more than 2,700 “look-up” messages — a first step for one system’s computers to talk to another — to a Trump-connected server beginning in the spring. But the F.B.I. ultimately concluded that there could be an innocuous explanation, like a marketing email or spam, for the computer contacts.

Not really a satisfying answer.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:30 pm UTC

Liri wrote:I enjoy 538 because they at least *talk* about their model and admit failings. They also don't do much editorializing. On the other hand, for their super-complex model to miss something like early voting is pretty striking. Even the fact that they have three separate models is a bit indicative that Nate's had trouble making a one-size-fits-all one.


I think it's good from the standpoint of helping people understand the statistics behind it. The model's decent, but imperfect. As it gets closer to election day, it'll get more and more accurate, of course.

I agree that early voting isn't necessarily representative of the final vote, so including it in the model could be fairly complicated, especially because differing states have very different rules, and the limited information...It's fair to observe that early voting does bake in a certain proportion of preferences early, but it's hard to calculate *exactly* how much. So, I think it'd be difficult for the team to do much better than they have in this regard.

At present, I don't think it matters a great deal. There's a clear Clinton edge regardless of which model you go with. I think it's unlikely for there to be a five point polling error overall, so while Clinton probably can ride this out still, Trump needs something in addition to this. If the polls keep closing at this rate, it'll help, but it still won't get them to equal by election day.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:30 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:Well, in 2012 fivethirtyeight had Obama and Romney tied (which Sam Wang gave Romney a 60% chance), and in the end Obama won by a margin of 0.88% of the vote. So, if (based on my speculation) this is because of the Dems massive GOTV operation in Florida, the polls may be underestimating Hillary like they did Romney.

Also, I'm curious if all the criticisms of Comey will allow the shock of Comey's statement to wear off and help bring some votes back to her, and then maybe a little more as backlash from Comey - at the very least, it cannot hurt Clinton if all the conversation is about the ethics of what Comey did.

You're misinformed as to why Comey hurts Clinton. If you look at 538, it shows Clinton remaining steady in the expected popular vote. The reason it's dangerous is it motivates Republicans to vote Trump instead of staying home or voting other. Trump has stopped saying the system is rigged against him. His chances are at 25%because third parties are worthless and they are coming back to Trump. Remember, rape isnt as bad as a shady Democrat. Besides, the odds of Trump or men assaulting or harassing a man or a female that you know are only roughly 1 out of two. That's pretty good odds for it not being a problem. Especially true if women typically don't say anything about it.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby GodShapedBullet » Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:35 pm UTC

If you want a little anxiety/optimism about Trump winning the election, a fun thing to do would be to consider how the SEPTA strike in Philadelphia will affect predominantly Democrat-leaning voter turnout in Pennsylvania if it lasts that long.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Whizbang » Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:40 pm UTC

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/witness ... er-victim/

Analysis, please? This seems like quite the boot-drop.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Felstaff » Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:43 pm UTC

This week's This American Life has a delightful song sung by Neil Patrick Harris about Paul Ryan's internal monologue.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Tue Nov 01, 2016 4:26 pm UTC

Whizbang wrote:http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/witness-trump-also-raped-12-year-old-and-used-her-disappearance-to-threaten-another-victim/

Analysis, please? This seems like quite the boot-drop.


Eh... It's Trump, no one gives a shit. Evidence of rape and treason by Trump? Meh, this isn't a big deal, we want to know about the emails we have no reason to believe contain evidence of wrongdoing by Hillary.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Tue Nov 01, 2016 4:29 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:
Whizbang wrote:http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/witness-trump-also-raped-12-year-old-and-used-her-disappearance-to-threaten-another-victim/

Analysis, please? This seems like quite the boot-drop.


Eh... It's Trump, no one gives a shit. Evidence of rape and treason by Trump? Meh, this isn't a big deal, we want to know about the emails we have no reason to believe contain evidence of wrongdoing by Hillary.

Do you have a better link? Something corroborating. Also most of the stuff Trump does isn't illegal enough for them to arrest him immediately. More like If Clinton was an actual criminal, Trump would be what people expect the Clintons are like.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Tue Nov 01, 2016 4:42 pm UTC

It's not whether or not it's true that I'm pissed about, it's the fact that every single fucking negative story about Clinton no matter what it is the biggest headline for at least a week, containing nothing but speculation, while the media at most spends a day talking about any evidence of Trump breaking the law that comes out. Unless it's Trump actually coming out and saying something stupid, despite the actual evidence of criminal wrongdoing, the media just doesn't spend nearly as much time on it at large as "A Hillary aide had email on her computer at home, possibly unrelated to her work at the state department."

Yes, Trump is actually going to court over rape allegations - if you google, or dig through the back pages of major news organizations you can find all sort of sources.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... pe-lawsuit
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Sableagle » Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:05 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:Trump is actually going to court over rape allegations ...
... after the election.
Judge Ronnie Abrams has slated an initial status conference in the civil lawsuit for 16 December in a New York district court.

This is slightly mind-boggling, this is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... iHN3IJ_j8A

A court date between the election and the swearing-in. WTF happens if he somehow wins the election and then the court case turns into A Few Good Men and he yells under oath that he did indeed rape 12- and 13-year old girls on many occasions? What happens next? Does the (R) stay elected and wait for someone else's name to be put before it? Does the election get re-run? Do all votes for him get annulled, leaving Hillary as President? "Who knew how much and when" is bound to be a big question if this allegation goes anywhere. Would this rip the support out from under the Republican Party altogether? Will he be made President of NAMBLA instead? Does David Attenborough become the new darling of the Second Amendment fanclub?

Hell, this is Donald Trump. What happens if he somehow wins the election and then the court case turns into A Few Good Men and he yells under oath that he did indeed rape 12- and 13-year old girls on many occasions and then the court finds that he didn't at all and couldn't possibly have been there on many of the occasions he's just testified that he did that?
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Lazar » Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:13 pm UTC

What happens next? Does the (R) stay elected and wait for someone else's name to be put before it? Does the election get re-run? Do all votes for him get annulled, leaving Hillary as President?

If that happens between the electors cast their votes in December, they could decide (or be directed by party elites) to vote for Pence, or maybe Hillary or Egg McMuffin. State-level bound elector laws would almost surely be ignored in such an exceptional case. If it happens after they cast their votes, then he'd be impeached and removed from office after being sworn in, leaving us with Pence.
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