2016 US Presidential Election

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Jumble
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Jumble » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:02 am UTC

I'm sorry, but, what, to borrow a phrase, the actual fuck, apologies for the base language, have you done?
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:05 am UTC

Lots of jobs in trending blue counties in the Denver/Boulder area.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:05 am UTC

Thesh wrote:Lots of jobs in trending blue counties in the Denver/Boulder area.


Not for me. Never for me.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:07 am UTC

Boulder is very progressive, and extremely blue.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Vahir » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:07 am UTC

morriswalters wrote:
Vahir wrote:Okay, guys, it was funny at first, but now the joke's getting old. There's no way Trump can become president of the world's premier superpower. Right?

Right?
I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Trump has a mouth. He will trip over it sooner or later. However I assume it would supercharge the Democratic base, it could even force me to vote for Clinton.


Nnnnnnggghhh

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:08 am UTC

Thesh wrote:Boulder is very progressive, and extremely blue.


Doesn't matter. It's the same type of blue that just lost the election. It's not the type of blue that's compatible with my existence or welfare.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:11 am UTC

Jumble wrote:I'm sorry, but, what, to borrow a phrase, the actual fuck, apologies for the base language, have you done?

The conservative media and white people narrative is very strong. I wonder how much Trump is just gonna rubberstamp stuff and call it "Winning!" and how much he'll affect bills. He does care about the white constituents, I think. After all the tax cuts are said and done, I think they'll get their abortion restriction and their social security. Anything else is a wildcard.

Dr34m(4+(h3r, I dunno, get rich and/or run for president under the theme of revengance?

PS: This is not a solely a white voter problem, Clinton's black and hispanic voters failed her by not voting. Blame voter suppression all you want, but that's only 2% of the vote.
Harry Enten 11:58 PM

There’s going to be a lot of talk about white voters after the election, but looking at the exit polls, that’s not the full story. A big part of the story is that Clinton underperformed Obama with blacks and Hispanics. Clinton is winning only 88 percent of the black vote. Exit polls in 2012 had Obama at 93 percent. Clinton is only at 65 percent among Latinos. Obama won 71 percent of them.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:16 am UTC

sardia wrote:Dr34m(4+(h3r, I dunno, get rich and/or run for president under the theme of revengance?


Difficult, when I'm homeless, just got expelled from college, have exhausted and ruined my credit, can't find a job with six degrees, can't find anyone to rent to me, and have alienated and disappointed even my divine intervention.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:21 am UTC

It's not too late! Obama could still declare martial law like the Republicans had been warning us about!

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:22 am UTC

Welp, looks like we're witnessing the demise of the Democratic party.

It's not *quite* certain yet, but the odds look bleak for anything else. I mean, on the plus side, I'm up nearly 100% in betting markets, so there's the condolences of winning, and there's a morbid curiosity for how this is going to play out, but it's not lookin' great. Literally 97% odds on a Trump victory to buy in now at Predictit, and overall, the betting market predicts 306 for him. That's brutal.

I suppose those papers giving Fivethirtyeight crap over their uncertainty will have to eat some crow.

Tomorrow's going to be an interesting day.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:27 am UTC

sardia wrote:
Jumble wrote:I'm sorry, but, what, to borrow a phrase, the actual fuck, apologies for the base language, have you done?

The conservative media and white people narrative is very strong. I wonder how much Trump is just gonna rubberstamp stuff and call it "Winning!" and how much he'll affect bills. He does care about the white constituents, I think. After all the tax cuts are said and done, I think they'll get their abortion restriction and their social security. Anything else is a wildcard.


I wouldn't be surprised to find that Pence is president in all but name. Trump will have a few pet projects he'll focus his energy on, and will spend a lot of time giving speeches on how he's "making American great", but he (probably) doesn't have the discipline or interest to really deal with all of the different files that are going to come across his desk.

Tyndmyr wrote:Welp, looks like we're witnessing the demise of the Democratic party.


Quite possibly. It's hard to fathom how they're going to approach this kind of loss.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Xeio » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:33 am UTC

Dow futures are currently halted at -800 points.

Whelp.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby omgryebread » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:36 am UTC

I don't think I've ever been actually ashamed of my country until now. I don't know if I love America anymore, because it clearly doesn't love me.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:36 am UTC

Xeio wrote:Dow futures are currently halted at -800 points.

Whelp.


Happened with Brexit, which ended up being a whole bunch of nothing for the markets.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:41 am UTC

Yeah. Probably wouldn't stress about the market long term. I mean, Trump doesn't even take office for ages. If there's a massive reaction tomorrow, the correct response is to buy.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Xeio » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:44 am UTC

Yeah. Though Brexit hasn't actually happened (if it ever does). We have an exact date on government control.

Hope nobody got too attached to their Obama care coverage relatedly. Republican majorities in both houses of congress, plus the presidency. Guess we may see what they do when they're not literally obstructing everything.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:49 am UTC

I predict Republicans in States will pour money into rural towns, while Congress begins cutting their social safety nets when they aren't looking, until Democrats get the Presidency, then they pull the rug and blame their problems on the Democrats.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby cphite » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:49 am UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Welp, looks like we're witnessing the demise of the Democratic party.


The past two election cycles were seen by many as the demise of the republican party... bit of an overreaction. This may force the democrat party to make some adjustments, and re-evaluate some of their priorities, but "demise" is a bit strong.

I wouldn't be surprised if the democrat nominee in 2020 - if they're just about anyone reasonable - wins by a landslide. And if Trump performs as expected, I would be even less surprised if the dems grab Congress.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby omgryebread » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:49 am UTC

Xeio wrote:Yeah. Though Brexit hasn't actually happened (if it ever does). We have an exact date on government control.

Hope nobody got too attached to their Obama care coverage relatedly. Republican majorities in both houses of congress, plus the presidency. Guess we may see what they do when they're not literally obstructing everything.
I'm not exactly sure what I'm going to do. I have a pre-existing condition, I can't afford my meds, much less the regular doctor visits. It's scary enough when I feel like I can't control my own thoughts, it's fucking terrifying when that might happen because of other people just not being able to find it within themselves to give up a tiny tiny bit of "freedom" to help me.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:50 am UTC

Xeio wrote:Yeah. Though Brexit hasn't actually happened (if it ever does). We have an exact date on government control.

Hope nobody got too attached to their Obama care coverage relatedly. Republican majorities in both houses of congress, plus the presidency. Guess we may see what they do when they're not literally obstructing everything.


The Republican alternative isn't completely horrible. They are also going to have marketplaces (although they don't like the nation-wide marketplace. They want a state-by-state marketplace) and are removing the individual mandate. So we get to test the theory on whether or not we really need the individual mandate for health care insurance markets to work I guess...

omgryebread wrote:
Xeio wrote:Yeah. Though Brexit hasn't actually happened (if it ever does). We have an exact date on government control.

Hope nobody got too attached to their Obama care coverage relatedly. Republican majorities in both houses of congress, plus the presidency. Guess we may see what they do when they're not literally obstructing everything.
I'm not exactly sure what I'm going to do. I have a pre-existing condition, I can't afford my meds, much less the regular doctor visits. It's scary enough when I feel like I can't control my own thoughts, it's fucking terrifying when that might happen because of other people just not being able to find it within themselves to give up a tiny tiny bit of "freedom" to help me.


Republicans believe the Empowering Patients First Act will help those with preexisting conditions.

I haven't looked at the bill seriously though, because I was expecting a Clinton win frankly. But that's the name of the Republican plan to "repeal and replace" basically.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby JudeMorrigan » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:51 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I wouldn't be surprised to find that Pence is president in all but name. Trump will have a few pet projects he'll focus his energy on, and will spend a lot of time giving speeches on how he's "making American great", but he (probably) doesn't have the discipline or interest to really deal with all of the different files that are going to come across his desk.

I wouldn't be surprised if people like Bannon and Gingrich are president in all but name. I think they'll do a much better job of stroking Trump's ego, and he has precious little incentive to defer to the establishment at this point.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:53 am UTC

cphite wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:Welp, looks like we're witnessing the demise of the Democratic party.


The past two election cycles were seen by many as the demise of the republican party... bit of an overreaction. This may force the democrat party to make some adjustments, and re-evaluate some of their priorities, but "demise" is a bit strong.

I wouldn't be surprised if the democrat nominee in 2020 - if they're just about anyone reasonable - wins by a landslide. And if Trump performs as expected, I would be even less surprised if the dems grab Congress.


It's...rough. They're not doing good in literally any category. Gonna be a red presidency, senate, house, state houses, and supreme court. And midterms are traditionally a weak time for them, so they're looking at probably a four year stretch of this.

I mean, I *want* to predict Trump crashing and burning in the next four years. However, I observe that people have been predicting this exact same thing for quite a while now, and it hasn't actually happened. Primaries or general.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby moiraemachy » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:54 am UTC

sardia wrote:He does care about the white constituents, I think. After all the tax cuts are said and done, I think they'll get their abortion restriction and their social security. Anything else is a wildcard.
I may be giving him too much credit, but IMO Trump is not likely to lower the overall tax burden. I say this because of his centrist past, his emphasis on governmet debt, and the fact that his first tax proposals contained the words "revenue neutral". He might make taxes less progressive on the premise of "closing loopholes", though.

The part that scares me is Trump kickstarting a culture of protectionism in developed countries.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby omgryebread » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:54 am UTC

KnightExemplar wrote:The Republican alternative isn't completely horrible. They are also going to have marketplaces (although they don't like the nation-wide marketplace. They want a state-by-state marketplace) and are removing the individual mandate. So we get to test the theory on whether or not we really need the individual mandate for health care insurance markets to work I guess...
I don't see how this is going to solve probably the key problem The Affordable Care Act addressed in pre-existing conditions. Without the individual mandate, I don't know how insurance companies manage to keep that up if the Republicans keep the requirement to cover them.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:57 am UTC

I think millions of people will lose their insurance, with Republicans pointing to the people who simply don't want it, and Democrats pointing at the people who can't afford it.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:57 am UTC

omgryebread wrote:
KnightExemplar wrote:The Republican alternative isn't completely horrible. They are also going to have marketplaces (although they don't like the nation-wide marketplace. They want a state-by-state marketplace) and are removing the individual mandate. So we get to test the theory on whether or not we really need the individual mandate for health care insurance markets to work I guess...
I don't see how this is going to solve probably the key problem The Affordable Care Act addressed in pre-existing conditions. Without the individual mandate, I don't know how insurance companies manage to keep that up if the Republicans keep the requirement to cover them.


Legally, it'd be pretty simple. We write a law that states (similar to The Affordable Care Act): Its illegal to create insurance plans that ban those with pre-existing conditions.

Now the reason why the Individual Mandate was added, was because we are worried that people will take advantage of insurance companies by NOT buying insurance, and then only buying it when they get sick. So the question is not "how can we stop pre-existing conditions", the question is "will health-insurance companies go bankrupt without the individual mandate" ??

My bet is that insurance companies will need higher premiums to compensate. But we'll see I guess. Senate is pretty close though, looks like Democrats would hypothetically filibuster anything like that.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Xeio » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:58 am UTC

Unrelated, people are going nuts at Nate Silver on Twitter fire saying to say the race wasn't a sure thing... as though he's responsible for Trump winning by having a model that gave him reasonable odds.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:58 am UTC

Holy shit, PA is 50,000 for Trump, with only 4% left to count.


Someone, please tell me that PA is just taking a while to count Black-Hispanic Women's votes. Pretty please?

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:00 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Holy shit, PA is 50,000 for Trump, with only 4% left to count.


Someone, please tell me that PA is just taking a while to count Black-Hispanic Women's votes. Pretty please?


I mean, Clinton needs to win PA AND Michigan at this point. Its not sufficient for her to win only PA.

EDIT: In any case, I'm already seeing people blame Johnson for spoilering the vote. Sooooo... what can I say? Called it?
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:01 am UTC

Xeio wrote:Unrelated, people are going nuts at Nate Silver on Twitter fire saying to say the race wasn't a sure thing... as though he's responsible for Trump winning by having a model that gave him reasonable odds.


Well, it can be hard to distinguish prophecy from spell

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:03 am UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Yeah. Probably wouldn't stress about the market long term. I mean, Trump doesn't even take office for ages. If there's a massive reaction tomorrow, the correct response is to buy.

Quick note, the damage Brexit caused was all long term shit.The correct response is to hold. Check out Britain now, as the long term damage becomes clearer, the currency is lower and the stocks are lower. Not a shock, more of a slow acting poison.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:05 am UTC

Thesh wrote:I think millions of people will lose their insurance, with Republicans pointing to the people who simply don't want it, and Democrats pointing at the people who can't afford it.


This seems probable.

At least losing the mandate might sort of tamp down the ridiculous increases in low-competition areas. Selling a product people have to buy is always rife with abuse if there's little competition.

But I believe at the core, omegry is correct. Long term, removing the mandate does threaten the house of cards.

Xeio wrote:Unrelated, people are going nuts at Nate Silver on Twitter fire saying to say the race wasn't a sure thing... as though he's responsible for Trump winning by having a model that gave him reasonable odds.


...what the hell? The dude was MORE accurate than most, and he's to blame? Ugh.

CorruptUser wrote:Holy shit, PA is 50,000 for Trump, with only 4% left to count.


Someone, please tell me that PA is just taking a while to count Black-Hispanic Women's votes. Pretty please?


3% left to call at this point, with Clinton trailing about 1%. Seems unlikely. Technically possible, maybe, but I literally just added more money to betting on trump at 97% odds.

sardia wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:Yeah. Probably wouldn't stress about the market long term. I mean, Trump doesn't even take office for ages. If there's a massive reaction tomorrow, the correct response is to buy.

Quick note, the damage Brexit caused was all long term shit.The correct response is to hold. Check out Britain now, as the long term damage becomes clearer, the currency is lower and the stocks are lower. Not a shock, more of a slow acting poison.


People usually panic in the short term, I think. Even if the long term effect is negative, it's not uncommon for the immediate reaction to be steeper, and then there to be a correction. If you can hit at the bottom, great.

But holding is a reliable long term strat as well. Panicking and selling at the low is the obviously painful move, anything that's not that is good.
Last edited by Tyndmyr on Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:06 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:06 am UTC

FUCK, RUSS FEINGOLD LOST

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:14 am UTC

So are the Democrats going to have the discipline to filibuster Donald Trump's entire agenda in the Senate?

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:14 am UTC

They just called Wisconsin for Trump, it's over. Unless Hillary actually is an evil jew cabal with control over the voting booths, she lost.

As for me, I'm...damaged but safe. Depends on how much China rises and how xenophobic Trump actually makes the country. The Democrats haven't been gutted so much as they were previously gutted, and don't have any chance to heal...again. I don't know where the Democrats go to assemble a new coalition from here, Michelle Obama? The only thing I can think of is this: White people have been lied to by politicians for decades. They'll fall for the next lying politician too. Just gotta use that fact for good.

They can't filibuster, or more accurately, Mcconnel will change the rules so it goes away. Trump's gonna get his choice of scotus judges.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby omgryebread » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:16 am UTC

It's looking a lot like Clinton will win the popular vote. That at least gives me some tiny shred of hope that the country isn't irrevocably broken. Just large parts of it.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:16 am UTC

sardia wrote:I don't know where the Democrats go to assemble a new coalition from here, Michelle Obama?


See, this is what gets me, what's the reaction here? They've got a thin bench, and they just lost against a candidate that is a straight up dumpster fire.

I dunno. Go way left to Sanders style stuff? What about the middle then? Become more Republican/Centrist? How?

sardia wrote:They can't filibuster, or more accurately, Mcconnel will change the rules so it goes away. Trump's gonna get his choice of scotus judges.


All true, and part of the reason I described it as the demise of the Democratic party. That and the lesser races didn't go particularly blue either. It leaves the democrats in a really rough position at all levels. At a certain point, they cease to be a very effective check. They can filibuster a little, I suppose, but the amount of leverage they have is definitely greatly diminished.
Last edited by Tyndmyr on Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:20 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:18 am UTC

Left towards Sanders, with a strong economic message, while focusing heavily on rural areas as well as urban.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:20 am UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
sardia wrote:I don't know where the Democrats go to assemble a new coalition from here, Michelle Obama?


See, this is what gets me, what's the reaction here? They've got a thin bench, and they just lost against a candidate that is a straight up dumpster fire.

I dunno. Go way left to Sanders style stuff? What about the middle then? Become more Republican/Centrist? How?

Based on how the vote came out so far, it looks like Sanders would have killed it. Or Biden. Which is just another kick in the gut.

The African-American vote was what carried Clinton to the nomination, but it deserted her in the general.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:20 am UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
sardia wrote:I don't know where the Democrats go to assemble a new coalition from here, Michelle Obama?


See, this is what gets me, what's the reaction here? They've got a thin bench, and they just lost against a candidate that is a straight up dumpster fire.

I dunno. Go way left to Sanders style stuff? What about the middle then? Become more Republican/Centrist? How?


Both parties are weak. For Trump to overtake the Republican party demonstrates the weakness of Republicans as well.

This will be the next question we'll be asking ourselves as a country. Both Republicans and Democrats.
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