2016 US Presidential Election

Seen something interesting in the news or on the intertubes? Discuss it here.

Moderators: Zamfir, Hawknc, Moderators General, Prelates

morriswalters
Posts: 6898
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2010 12:21 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:12 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:I'm trying to work out what a democracy without a peaceful transfer of power looks like. How would that even work?
Lincoln was elected in November of 1860. The South saw this as an existential threat. The Civil War started April 12, 1861 less than 5 months later. Despite the war we managed to elect Lincoln to a second term while the Civil War was ongoing. Lee surrendered at Appomattox April 9th, 1865, some 6 days later Lincoln was assassinated. On April 15, 1865. Andrew Johnson was then elevated to the Presidency. That's what it looks like.

Mutex
Posts: 1040
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2008 10:32 pm UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mutex » Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:16 pm UTC

morriswalters wrote:
Mutex wrote:I'm trying to work out what a democracy without a peaceful transfer of power looks like. How would that even work?
Lincoln was elected in November of 1860. The South saw this as an existential threat. The Civil War started April 12, 1861 less than 5 months later. Despite the war we managed to elect Lincoln to a second term while the Civil War was ongoing. Lee surrendered at Appomattox April 9th, 1865, some 6 days later Lincoln was assassinated. On April 15, 1865. Andrew Johnson was then elevated to the Presidency. That's what it looks like.


Right, and as far as I know the US isn't the only country that doesn't have a civil war every time there's a transfer of power.

User avatar
Angua
Don't call her Delphine.
Posts: 5650
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 12:42 pm UTC
Location: UK/[St. Kitts and] Nevis Occasionally, I migrate to the US for a bit

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Angua » Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:20 pm UTC

Some of us get two days off instead of the usual one.
'Look, sir, I know Angua. She's not the useless type. She doesn't stand there and scream helplessly. She makes other people do that.'
GNU Terry Pratchett

Chen
Posts: 5266
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2008 6:53 pm UTC
Location: Montreal

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Chen » Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:26 pm UTC

Liri wrote:I'm doing my damnedest to not get my hopes up whatsoever. At the same time, are we, as a country, going to accept that? Is accepting a potentially dodgy result heavily influenced by a quasi-adversarial foreign government (with a popular vote loser, to boot) better or worse for the 'stability of democracy' than mandating/encouraging states to hold votes for electors again?

And even if they did hold new elections, what would that do to turnout? I imagine there would be a whole lot of misinformation directed at voters, some groups would turn out in higher numbers, and some turn out less.


The claim for Russia's influence was in hacking some servers and releasing information. While definitely bad, I don't think it affects the legitimacy of the election. I mean it's roughly on the same level as those fake news sites/articles that influenced who people voted for. Except in this case the leaked items weren't actually fake. It'd be as if a foreign country released the Billy Bush tapes.

User avatar
Liri
Healthy non-floating pooper reporting for doodie.
Posts: 916
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:11 pm UTC
Contact:

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:31 pm UTC

Chen wrote:
Liri wrote:I'm doing my damnedest to not get my hopes up whatsoever. At the same time, are we, as a country, going to accept that? Is accepting a potentially dodgy result heavily influenced by a quasi-adversarial foreign government (with a popular vote loser, to boot) better or worse for the 'stability of democracy' than mandating/encouraging states to hold votes for electors again?

And even if they did hold new elections, what would that do to turnout? I imagine there would be a whole lot of misinformation directed at voters, some groups would turn out in higher numbers, and some turn out less.


The claim for Russia's influence was in hacking some servers and releasing information. While definitely bad, I don't think it affects the legitimacy of the election. I mean it's roughly on the same level as those fake news sites/articles that influenced who people voted for. Except in this case the leaked items weren't actually fake. It'd be as if a foreign country released the Billy Bush tapes.

The sense I have is that it's far less concerning/bad/noteworthy if citizens of the country having the election do something to influence it.

A lot of the fake news also came from overseas, but I don't think there's been any sort of indication it was state-sponsored. That's really the rub with the Russia stuff - it wasn't just random Russian citizens but the government itself.
He wondered could you eat the mushrooms, would you die, do you care.

morriswalters
Posts: 6898
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2010 12:21 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:51 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:
morriswalters wrote:
Mutex wrote:I'm trying to work out what a democracy without a peaceful transfer of power looks like. How would that even work?
Lincoln was elected in November of 1860. The South saw this as an existential threat. The Civil War started April 12, 1861 less than 5 months later. Despite the war we managed to elect Lincoln to a second term while the Civil War was ongoing. Lee surrendered at Appomattox April 9th, 1865, some 6 days later Lincoln was assassinated. On April 15, 1865. Andrew Johnson was then elevated to the Presidency. That's what it looks like.


Right, and as far as I know the US isn't the only country that doesn't have a civil war every time there's a transfer of power.
I answered the question you asked. See above.
Thesh wrote:So basically, the public should not be aware if foreign powers are trying to influence the election.
Information without context isn't very useful. The President is the public voice. This is one of the reasons he exists. The CIA has a mission is to brief him so he can make decisions and speak. Backed up by whatever evidence is available. And crap like this is precisely why people are pissed off. Everybody in DC is maneuvering for status and position. And they aren't doing their jobs.

Mutex
Posts: 1040
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2008 10:32 pm UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mutex » Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:53 pm UTC

morriswalters wrote:
Mutex wrote:
morriswalters wrote:
Mutex wrote:I'm trying to work out what a democracy without a peaceful transfer of power looks like. How would that even work?
Lincoln was elected in November of 1860. The South saw this as an existential threat. The Civil War started April 12, 1861 less than 5 months later. Despite the war we managed to elect Lincoln to a second term while the Civil War was ongoing. Lee surrendered at Appomattox April 9th, 1865, some 6 days later Lincoln was assassinated. On April 15, 1865. Andrew Johnson was then elevated to the Presidency. That's what it looks like.


Right, and as far as I know the US isn't the only country that doesn't have a civil war every time there's a transfer of power.
I answered the question you asked. See above.


It wasn't asked in isolation, re-read the thread to get the context.

User avatar
sardia
Posts: 5803
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2010 3:39 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:06 pm UTC

Angua wrote:There are many other democracies out there with a peaceful transfer of power. But it's nice that you feel special.

I mean, you guys are the one with a crazy elector system. It's not like I just made it up. Otherwise why have it at all? You can still weigh the vote of the individual states without having specific people go and vote who are allowed to do what they want in case of demagogue.

That's fair. Peaceful transition of power is a cornerstone of all real democracies, which means it doesn't count if it was only peaceful because your side won. We have the electoral college because constitutional change is hard, and like evolution, it's much easier to twerk what's already there instead of crafting from scratch.

User avatar
Yakk
Poster with most posts but no title.
Posts: 11045
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2007 7:27 pm UTC
Location: E pur si muove

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Yakk » Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:33 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:I'm trying to work out what a democracy without a peaceful transfer of power looks like. How would that even work?

A democracy where the transfer of power isn't peaceful tends to degenerate into an autocracy rapidly.

Basically, group X wins over group Y. Either Y objects and suppresses X with violence (or attempts to), or X takes over and gets revenge on Y.

Once this has happened, the next election? Ain't gonna be honest. Whomever is in power is going to fear that whomever takes over will use violence on them, so they'll do whatever they can to corrupt the process.

The magic of the peaceful transfer of power is that political opponents do not use everything in their power to suppress their foes.

Under the rule of "believe the autocrat", Trump has threatened to put his political opponents in jail, encouraged his supporters to physically beat up political opponents, claimed that any election he doesn't win is rigged (but any election he wins is honest), claimed that millions of people who voted for his opponent where fraudulent, etc. His response to being anything but fawned upon has been threats, insults and incoherent rage.

I'd say you got at least a 10% chance that the USA's long run of peaceful transfer of power may be coming to an end.
One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision - BR

Last edited by JHVH on Fri Oct 23, 4004 BCE 6:17 pm, edited 6 times in total.

morriswalters
Posts: 6898
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2010 12:21 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Sat Dec 10, 2016 11:22 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:It wasn't asked in isolation, re-read the thread to get the context.
I didn't speak to the context I spoke to the point. I'm not spending a lot of time worrying about countries where I don't have a voice. On the electoral college. Deal with the world as it exists or change it if you can. But I have to point out that some people like majorities until they run up against ones they don't like. So to paraphrase Orwell "All majorities are created equal, but some majorities are more equal than others." The electoral college attempted to speak to that. There is also an element of what is true today may not be true tomorrow. If urban growth is the future and rural areas continue to decline and assuming that Democrat party is semi intelligent, then the electoral college will eventually come to favor urban voters. Wasn't one notable feature of this election Clinton's dominance of those areas?

Mutex
Posts: 1040
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2008 10:32 pm UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mutex » Sat Dec 10, 2016 11:32 pm UTC

morriswalters wrote:
Mutex wrote:It wasn't asked in isolation, re-read the thread to get the context.
I didn't speak to the context I spoke to the point.


And you provided a fine answer to the question, which I then brought back to the original point.

User avatar
sardia
Posts: 5803
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2010 3:39 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Sun Dec 11, 2016 12:59 am UTC

morriswalters wrote:
Mutex wrote:It wasn't asked in isolation, re-read the thread to get the context.
I didn't speak to the context I spoke to the point. I'm not spending a lot of time worrying about countries where I don't have a voice. On the electoral college. Deal with the world as it exists or change it if you can. But I have to point out that some people like majorities until they run up against ones they don't like. So to paraphrase Orwell "All majorities are created equal, but some majorities are more equal than others." The electoral college attempted to speak to that. There is also an element of what is true today may not be true tomorrow. If urban growth is the future and rural areas continue to decline and assuming that Democrat party is semi intelligent, then the electoral college will eventually come to favor urban voters. Wasn't one notable feature of this election Clinton's dominance of those areas?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wil ... ats-again/
That's not how the electoral college works. The way electoral college favors one party or another is to do a really bad job of representing your coalition. Anything over half is wasted votes. If your support is above 60%-70%, ignore them. Focus on groups where support is borderline. The actual future for Democrats depends on how much the South grows bluer, and if the Midwest is permanently going redder.
it isn’t necessarily the case that states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan have permanently gone from blue-leaning to purple or even red-leaning. Sometimes, states behave unpredictably for one or two elections before reverting back to the mean — for instance, Obama won Indiana in 2008 before it returned to being strongly Republican. The dynamics of 2020 will also be different in that Democrats will be the challenging party instead of the incumbents.

The risk to Democrats is being caught in between, with the Midwest continuing to drift redder and Arizona and the like not yet ready to become true swing states. That’s what happened to Clinton this year, yielding about the most painful loss imaginable.
Last edited by sardia on Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:41 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Liri
Healthy non-floating pooper reporting for doodie.
Posts: 916
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:11 pm UTC
Contact:

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Sun Dec 11, 2016 4:10 am UTC

Her broadening the base approach definitely worked in that sense. There were almost certainly some advisors of hers who recommended trying to win every theoretical swing state rather than shore up the... *ahem* .....firewall......

There was a good NYT article I read earlier that I'm too lazy to find and link to from my phone, but it was about a post-mortem of sorts by a handful of Democratic senators from states that went for Trump.

User avatar
sardia
Posts: 5803
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2010 3:39 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:47 am UTC

Liri wrote:Her broadening the base approach definitely worked in that sense. There were almost certainly some advisors of hers who recommended trying to win every theoretical swing state rather than shore up the... *ahem* .....firewall......

There was a good NYT article I read earlier that I'm too lazy to find and link to from my phone, but it was about a post-mortem of sorts by a handful of Democratic senators from states that went for Trump.

Post mortems have a poor track record to be honest. Look at the postmortem that Romney's team did. Look at the post mortem McCain did. Nobody listened to a word, and they still won with Trump. Politics can shift quickly, and what can be obvious, turns out to not matter at all. The only thing that really matters is to keep churning out a steady stream of young politicians ready for primetime. It keeps ideas fresh, and helps the party stay in tune with their base.

User avatar
Liri
Healthy non-floating pooper reporting for doodie.
Posts: 916
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:11 pm UTC
Contact:

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Sun Dec 11, 2016 2:05 pm UTC

Don't get hung up on that word, they didn't call it that, it was just people chatting the same way we are here.
He wondered could you eat the mushrooms, would you die, do you care.

User avatar
sardia
Posts: 5803
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2010 3:39 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Sun Dec 11, 2016 3:49 pm UTC

Liri wrote:Don't get hung up on that word, they didn't call it that, it was just people chatting the same way we are here.

That's the thing though. When people talk about what lessons they learn from the last election, the ones they learn right away almost never apply. The people who get together and discuss what went wrong not only are ignored, but are also frequently wrong themselves. It's weird & unexplained, maybe politicians now better than the analysts since they are more in tune to their voters?

User avatar
Liri
Healthy non-floating pooper reporting for doodie.
Posts: 916
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:11 pm UTC
Contact:

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Sun Dec 11, 2016 3:56 pm UTC

Here's the article in question, you can judge for yourself.
He wondered could you eat the mushrooms, would you die, do you care.

User avatar
sardia
Posts: 5803
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2010 3:39 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Sun Dec 11, 2016 4:03 pm UTC

Liri wrote:Here's the article in question, you can judge for yourself.

You seem to be ignoring my point. Yes the Democrats are plotting new ideas to gain power. Here's the thing, focusing on what made you lose the last election seems to have no bearing on what lets you win the next election. That's unexplained, and kinda weird.

User avatar
Liri
Healthy non-floating pooper reporting for doodie.
Posts: 916
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:11 pm UTC
Contact:

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Sun Dec 11, 2016 4:44 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
Liri wrote:Here's the article in question, you can judge for yourself.

You seem to be ignoring my point. Yes the Democrats are plotting new ideas to gain power. Here's the thing, focusing on what made you lose the last election seems to have no bearing on what lets you win the next election. That's unexplained, and kinda weird.

I'm not saying they're right or wrong, it was just an interesting article to read, and seemed to be mirroring a lot of the discussion here. Even if what they might learn from this election won't help them in 4 years, it's still worthwhile to find the gaps in their thinking that let them lose this time so they can respond more quickly to whatever direction the next election goes in.

The Romney/McCain post-mortems weren't great in large part because they were going against an unusually talented campaigner in Obama.
He wondered could you eat the mushrooms, would you die, do you care.

morriswalters
Posts: 6898
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2010 12:21 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:28 pm UTC

sardia wrote:That's not how the electoral college works. The way electoral college favors one party or another is to do a really bad job of representing your coalition. Anything over half is wasted votes. If your support is above 60%-70%, ignore them. Focus on groups where support is borderline. The actual future for Democrats depends on how much the South grows bluer, and if the Midwest is permanently going redder.
Maybe. Mechanically it lets you run in in less than 50 states. You get to pick where you want to win. The really interesting question is why states shift from red to blue and vice versa. We spend a lot of time talking about the process, elections, and too little time considering the alternate points of view of the minds that vote. The election could be saying that coalitions are too narrow on the Democratic side or not representative.

User avatar
Angua
Don't call her Delphine.
Posts: 5650
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 12:42 pm UTC
Location: UK/[St. Kitts and] Nevis Occasionally, I migrate to the US for a bit

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Angua » Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:34 pm UTC

Donald Trump rejects CIA claims (says just sour grapes from Democrats).

In the same interview - the reason why he doesn't have the daily intelligence briefings?
I'm a smart person, I don't need to be told the same thing in the same way for eight years
8 years :shock:

Also in the same interview:
Elsewhere in the interview, he said:
1) oil tycoon Rex Tillerson, tipped to be his secretary of state, is "a world class player"
2) his children will run his company but will not "make deals" so no conflicts of interest
3) the phone call with Taiwan that prompted protests from China was not planned in advance
4) he won't be bound by the "One China" policy unless Beijing makes concessions on trade
5) "no one really knows" if climate change is real and a decision on the Paris treaty will come quickly


I'm expecting the dismantling of the CIA at this point. What's the point in having them if no one is going to listen?
'Look, sir, I know Angua. She's not the useless type. She doesn't stand there and scream helplessly. She makes other people do that.'
GNU Terry Pratchett

elasto
Posts: 3102
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 1:53 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby elasto » Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:41 pm UTC

I'm hoping Trump will be mostly harmless as a president, but I do worry about if there is a major terrorist attack on US soil how badly he might lash out with civil liberty violations and military payback.

User avatar
CorruptUser
Posts: 8725
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:12 pm UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:10 pm UTC

I wouldn't mind if the electoral college wasn't based on the number of residents but the number of people actually casting votes. That might encourage states to knock it off with the voter suppression. Really, that was one major criticism of the 3/5's compromise; they can't vote yet they get counted anyway? What bullshit is that?

elasto
Posts: 3102
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 1:53 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby elasto » Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:25 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:I wouldn't mind if the electoral college wasn't based on the number of residents but the number of people actually casting votes. That might encourage states to knock it off with the voter suppression.

First time I've heard that suggestion. It's a very interesting idea.

As mail-in and absentee voter ballots continue to trickle in and the country braces for President-elect Donald Trump to step into power, Hillary Clinton quietly marked a milestone.

...aside from Mr Obama's 2008 win, Mrs Clinton has received more votes than any other US presidential candidate in history.

For all the good it does...

link

User avatar
Dr34m(4+(h3r
Posts: 169
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 4:34 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Sun Dec 11, 2016 7:15 pm UTC

I'm ~30% sure (on the basis of conditional probability and possible schizophrenia) that we live in an alt-canon shadowrun universe and these are the events that lead to our version of the UCAS, CAS, State of Quebec, NaN, CaliFree, Tir Tairngire, Aztlan, etc.

User avatar
Dauric
Posts: 3755
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:58 pm UTC
Location: In midair, traversing laterally over a container of sharks. No water, just sharks, with lasers.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dauric » Sun Dec 11, 2016 7:33 pm UTC

Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:I'm ~30% sure (on the basis of conditional probability and possible schizophrenia) that we live in an alt-canon shadowrun universe and these are the events that lead to our version of the UCAS, CAS, State of Quebec, NaN, CaliFree, Tir Tairngire, Aztlan, etc.


Next election we lead in to R. Talsorian's "Cyberpunk 2020". I find mildly disturbing the parallel between the "Corporate State" of the late 80's Cyberpunk genre, and the corporate favoritism and administration cronyism we're looking forward to in a Republican-congress-backed Trump administration.
We're in the traffic-chopper over the XKCD boards where there's been a thread-derailment. A Liquified Godwin spill has evacuated threads in a fourty-post radius of the accident, Lolcats and TVTropes have broken free of their containers. It is believed that the Point has perished.

User avatar
Sableagle
Ormurinn's Alt
Posts: 1194
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2015 4:26 pm UTC
Location: The wrong side of the mirror
Contact:

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Sableagle » Sun Dec 11, 2016 7:45 pm UTC

elasto wrote:I'm hoping Trump will be mostly harmless as a president, but I do worry about if there is a major terrorist attack on US soil how badly he might lash out with civil liberty violations and military payback.


Hey, does
was not taken seriously until after his catastrophic rise to power
seem familiar from recent discussion of this election?

You reminded me of something and that phrase was in the opening of this page:

'Rebuilding America's Defenses' and the Project for the New American Century

During the Clinton presidency, when the Republicans were out of power, this militaristic wing in American politics became highly organized and efficient. They formed the PNAC in 1997 And published "RAD" in September 2000. Determined to have their world empire, they offered an eerie prophecy on page 52 of that document about how it might be accomplished, "Further, the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor." Their dream of a catalyzing event could not have been better actualized than in the events of 9/11.

... denigration of the UN, importance of Homeland Security, abrogation of international agreements, revamping of the US nuclear program ...

... Richard Perle's concept of "total war". "No stages," he said, "This is total war. We are fighting a variety of enemies. There are lots of them out there. All this talk about first we are going to do Afghanistan, then we will do Iraq... this is entirely the wrong way to go about it. If we just let our vision of the world go forth, and we embrace it entirely and we don't try to piece together clever diplomacy, but just wage a total war... our children will sing great songs about us years from now."

"Further, these constabulary missions are far more complex and likely to generate violence than traditional 'peacekeeping' missions. For one, they demand American political leadership rather than that of the United Nations, as the failure of the UN mission in the Balkans and the relative success of NATO operations there attests. Nor can the United States assume a UN-like stance of neutrality. . . . American troops, in particular, must be regarded as part of an overwhelmingly powerful force"
Seem horribly familiar?

Trump doesn't seem to agree with this part:
"Despite the shifting focus of conflict in Europe, a requirement to station US forces in northern and central Europe remains. The region is stable, but a continued American presence helps to assure the major European powers, especially Germany, that the United States retains its longstanding security interest in the continent. This is especially important in light of the nascent European moves toward an independent defense 'identity' and policy; it is important that NATO not be replaced by the European Union, leaving the United States without a voice in European security affairs"


Image

Trump capable of setting something like that up, pulling it off and keeping it secret? Hell, no.
Trump morally above exploiting something like that? Hell, no.
"I don't mind telling you, folks, I don't mind telling you, when I got the news, it was tragic what happened. It was tragic, but when I got the news, when I got the news I knew, I knew that now, what we're gonna do, they're not gonna be able to say no. They can never say no to me, folks and now they're not going to be able to say no because what's happened. Now all their whining about human rights has to stop because everyone can see, everyone can see it, what those people do when they're given human rights. They shouldn't have human rights, because they are not human! They're not. There are good people here in America, all over America, whose real rights are in danger because of these animals."
Would he say it? Yeah, I reckon he would, and I reckon the crowd from any of his rallies this year would cheer for that too.
Oh, Willie McBride, it was all done in vain.

User avatar
Dr34m(4+(h3r
Posts: 169
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 4:34 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Sun Dec 11, 2016 8:07 pm UTC

Dauric wrote:
Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:I'm ~30% sure (on the basis of conditional probability and possible schizophrenia) that we live in an alt-canon shadowrun universe and these are the events that lead to our version of the UCAS, CAS, State of Quebec, NaN, CaliFree, Tir Tairngire, Aztlan, etc.


Next election we lead in to R. Talsorian's "Cyberpunk 2020". I find mildly disturbing the parallel between the "Corporate State" of the late 80's Cyberpunk genre, and the corporate favoritism and administration cronyism we're looking forward to in a Republican-congress-backed Trump administration.


No, it's definitely Shadowrun:

* Everything is breaking down right as the end of the kali yuga approaches in 2025
* Everyone magically inclined I know is going crazy right now
* Meme magick just elected a president
* Native Americans are super visible right now antagonizing the future dictatorial regime of America
* The Trump regime is not only a highly plausible catalyst for megacorps but he was also considered inherently ridiculous by every thinking person, demonstrating that our universe is poorly written, like Shadowrun. He represents a massive discontinuity which seems to suggest he exists solely, from a narrative perspective, to justify a sudden swerve in national trends into more interesting/cyberpunk territory.
* Drones => riggers. Quantum computing => paradigm shift in hacking.
* Extreme right wing sentiment is spontaneously bizarrely ascendant, justifying Humanis, Alamo 20,000, the Night of Rage, etc. Again, a sudden discontinuity demonstrative of bad writing.
* Space technology has sudden massive upsurges coupled with private investment, which includes the EM Drive, a technology that literally works despite DEFYING THE LAWS OF OUR UNIVERSE. Again, evidence of bad writing. This would facilitate the Zurich-Orbital, travel to mars, suborbital travel, etc.

User avatar
Vahir
Posts: 456
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:20 pm UTC
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Vahir » Sun Dec 11, 2016 8:57 pm UTC

Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:No, it's definitely Shadowrun:

* Everything is breaking down right as the end of the kali yuga approaches in 2025
* Everyone magically inclined I know is going crazy right now
* Meme magick just elected a president
* Native Americans are super visible right now antagonizing the future dictatorial regime of America
* The Trump regime is not only a highly plausible catalyst for megacorps but he was also considered inherently ridiculous by every thinking person, demonstrating that our universe is poorly written, like Shadowrun. He represents a massive discontinuity which seems to suggest he exists solely, from a narrative perspective, to justify a sudden swerve in national trends into more interesting/cyberpunk territory.
* Drones => riggers. Quantum computing => paradigm shift in hacking.
* Extreme right wing sentiment is spontaneously bizarrely ascendant, justifying Humanis, Alamo 20,000, the Night of Rage, etc. Again, a sudden discontinuity demonstrative of bad writing.
* Space technology has sudden massive upsurges coupled with private investment, which includes the EM Drive, a technology that literally works despite DEFYING THE LAWS OF OUR UNIVERSE. Again, evidence of bad writing. This would facilitate the Zurich-Orbital, travel to mars, suborbital travel, etc.


Who writes this crap?

User avatar
Dr34m(4+(h3r
Posts: 169
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 4:34 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Sun Dec 11, 2016 9:00 pm UTC

Vahir wrote:Who writes this crap?


Mostly freelancers :cry:

User avatar
sardia
Posts: 5803
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2010 3:39 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Sun Dec 11, 2016 9:37 pm UTC

Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:
Vahir wrote:Who writes this crap?


Mostly freelancers :cry:

It was written during the height of Japanese power. Roughly, it's the boom years of the 80s. Just throw in magic into cyberpunk, + corporatacracy, and you have shadowrun.

Even if Trump refuses security briefings, Pence is there to reassure Republicans. Now it gets weird since you have to assume Trump will be just the front man to Pence's man running the show. Probably, they'll coordinate so it won't look stupid. (more likely, Trump will do whatever was whispered into his ear last, and Pence will be there to clean up the pieces.

User avatar
Angua
Don't call her Delphine.
Posts: 5650
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 12:42 pm UTC
Location: UK/[St. Kitts and] Nevis Occasionally, I migrate to the US for a bit

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Angua » Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:06 am UTC

Something I realised last night - in all this kerfuffle about the Russians 'hacking' the election, the part of the story where Trump actually asked for it to happen keeps being missed.
'Look, sir, I know Angua. She's not the useless type. She doesn't stand there and scream helplessly. She makes other people do that.'
GNU Terry Pratchett

User avatar
Zamfir
I built a novelty castle, the irony was lost on some.
Posts: 7299
Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 2:43 pm UTC
Location: Nederland

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Zamfir » Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:43 am UTC

Angua wrote:Something I realised last night - in all this kerfuffle about the Russians 'hacking' the election, the part of the story where Trump actually asked for it to happen keeps being missed.


I think that's reasonable - it really was a joke. A tasteless joke perhaps, but not evidence that he was involved, or that he seriously wanted it.

It's embarrassing if other countries want to put you in charge, but it's not something you are personally responsible for. Unless you have made an actual deal with those people, and I have yet to see evidence for that.

Tyndmyr
Posts: 10130
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2012 8:38 pm UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Dec 12, 2016 4:03 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
Liri wrote:Don't get hung up on that word, they didn't call it that, it was just people chatting the same way we are here.

That's the thing though. When people talk about what lessons they learn from the last election, the ones they learn right away almost never apply. The people who get together and discuss what went wrong not only are ignored, but are also frequently wrong themselves. It's weird & unexplained, maybe politicians now better than the analysts since they are more in tune to their voters?


I don't think the lessons learned in the Republican post mortems were wrong, per se. I think they legitimately represent problems the Republicans have, and opportunities to do better. They just didn't encompass all of the possible ways to do that. In part, Trump was fortunate to be running against Clinton, who offered a lot of unforced errors in terms of not appealing to certain demographics. Democrat errors are not the same as Republican brilliance.

It is pretty difficult to predict what errors will be made four years from now, true. So, next election will certainly have some interesting wild cards, but both Republicans and Democrats would be well served by learning from past errors in addition to preparing to deal with future mistakes.

User avatar
Sableagle
Ormurinn's Alt
Posts: 1194
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2015 4:26 pm UTC
Location: The wrong side of the mirror
Contact:

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Sableagle » Mon Dec 12, 2016 5:33 pm UTC

Ouch:
US Vice-President Joe Biden told an audience in Ottawa that the world needs "genuine leaders" such as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

"The world is going to spend a lot of time looking to you, Mr Prime Minister", he told the Canadian leader.

Mr Biden has been highly critical of US President-elect Donald Trump.

"Vive le Canada because we need you very, very badly," he told the dinner guests.


The world will look to Germany and Canada for leadership as the political status-quo is upended across the West, U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden said ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Visiting Ottawa before he leaves office, the vice-president called on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau -- who is beginning his second year in power -- to set an example on the international stage. “The world’s going to spend a lot of time looking to you, prime minister, as we see more and more challenges to the liberal international order since the end of World War II -- you and Angela Merkel.”

The vice-president urged the premiers to act quickly to mitigate climate change, and thanked Canada for its “continued leadership” on the issue. “It’s going to be absolutely critical in the years ahead,” he said, again telling Trudeau other world leaders are looking at him to act.

Both Trudeau and Biden praised the Canada-U.S. relationship, with the vice-president calling it “absolutely critical” and saying the vast majority of Americans consider Canada to be family. Trudeau made no direct reference to Trump, though he cited “all the cycles of political seasons” in his remarks. “We do very well in all conditions and this friendship endures through whatever situations we encounter,” the prime minister said Thursday evening.


Outgoing US Vice President Joe Biden hailed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and German Chancellor Angela Merkel as genuine leaders during a time when they are in short supply at a state dinner in his honour in Canada on Thursday night.

“The world is going to spend a lot of time looking to you Mr Prime Minister,” Biden told a crowd of Canadian dignitaries. “Viva la Canada because we need you very, very badly.”


They can't agree what language he used for that line, but they seem to all agree he just shat on Trump.
Oh, Willie McBride, it was all done in vain.

User avatar
sardia
Posts: 5803
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2010 3:39 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Mon Dec 12, 2016 5:41 pm UTC

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/thr ... ll-govern/
He really meant some of his promises:
Trump’s choice of Georgia Rep. Tom Price to lead the Department of Health and Human Services suggests he really does want to repeal most if not all of President Obama’s signature health law. In Congress, Price drafted perhaps the most comprehensive Republican alternative to the Affordable Care Act; his bill would probably make insurance more affordable for young, healthy patients while making it more expensive for those who are older and sicker. Trump hasn’t said whether he will pursue a plan similar to Price’s, but there are other signs that he is serious about dismantling the law. His nominee for labor secretary, fast-food executive Andrew Puzder, is an outspoken critic of the law, and Trump’s team has talked with Republican leaders in Congress about a plan to repeal The Affordable Care Act immediately but delay its actual expiration, possibly for years.

Trump seems equally serious about his plans to cut corporate taxes and regulations. He emphasized both pledges when discussing his deal to save jobs at Carrier — even though those policies probably won’t do much to prevent the outsourcing of other manufacturing jobs to other countries. Puzder has blamed regulation — including the Affordable Care Act and other Obama-administration policies such as new rules expanding the number of workers who must be paid overtime — for slowing job creation, especially in the restaurant industry. Trump’s choice to run the Environmental Protection Agency, Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, has helped lead efforts to challenge Obama’s environmental rules. And Trump’s nominees to run Treasury and Commerce — Steven Mnuchin and Wilbur Ross, respectively — have both spoken about the need to lower taxes on corporations. In a joint interview on CNBC shortly after their selection, they called tax reform the administration’s “No. 1 priority.”

But other promises may not be priorities:

Tldr. Obama care is out. Republican tax cut style tax reforms are in.
Tariffs are out.
Wall Street billionaires are in.

I'm surprised that Trump values billionaires more than he values loyalty. Maybe all his loyal supporters just want plum no responsibility positions.

Tyndmyr, errors are hard to predict but policy positions aren't, at least according to post mortems. If you had told me that 4 years ago that 2016 was gonna be hard line anti immigration, I'd be surprised. There's no guarantee that Democrats will run back to middle class whites. Nor that middle class whites are receptive or unreceptive to Democrats.
You and I were saying that Democrats should go after the mid west white working class right after Trump won. Our certainty that Democrats should run on that isn't based off data. Democrats need to see who Trump is pissing off in order to get pick offs.

Tyndmyr
Posts: 10130
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2012 8:38 pm UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Dec 12, 2016 5:57 pm UTC

sardia wrote:Tyndmyr, errors are hard to predict but policy positions aren't, at least according to post mortems. If you had told me that 4 years ago that 2016 was gonna be hard line anti immigration, I'd be surprised. There's no guarantee that Democrats will run back to middle class whites. Nor that middle class whites are receptive or unreceptive to Democrats.
You and I were saying that Democrats should go after the mid west white working class right after Trump won. Our certainty that Democrats should run on that isn't based off data. Democrats need to see who Trump is pissing off in order to get pick offs.


*shrug* I had absolutely no problem predicting an anti-establishment effect. That said, that's a lot vaguer. It's still useful in the sense that it tells you who to run as a candidate, but it's certainly not going to guarantee a win. 4 yrs out, you're planning for the easy stuff, you still need to shift later.

Right now, Democrats should absolutely try to scoop up some Midwestern votes. Yeah, it won't make a great deal of difference in 2018, but long term, having a broader base will provide returns, rather than relying on supposedly unassailable states. Even if all you manage to do is make red states a little less red, there are indirect benefits from decreased partisanship, and being able to sneak the occasional congressman or what not from a red state in has a lot of utility. Some PR benefits, of course. Easier to gain further appeal. Basically the same advantages of any other kind of diversity.

Republicans should totally be doing the same thing with other minorities. Playing to your base has appeal, sure, but the hard work of growing the coalition has long term payoff.

These things aren't even wholly opposed. There's a LOT of non voters out there who could maybe be attracted to participate.

Edit: As an aside, while I'm not at all surprised that Trump is catering to billionares, because hey, that has direct applicability to him, I do think tax breaks have an effect on corporations. I mean...that's one of the primary government tools used to lure in new corporate investments. Offer mad tax breaks, and you get investment. At least until the tax breaks expire, anyways, and they move on to the next locale doing the same.

elasto
Posts: 3102
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 1:53 am UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby elasto » Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:56 pm UTC

Rex Tillerson, the president and chief executive of ExxonMobil, has been officially named as Donald Trump’s choice for secretary of state.

Tillerson’s confirmation hearings are likely to be a bitter and emotional struggle. He is a recipient of Moscow’s Order of Friendship, having grown close to Putin and his circle while working on oil exploration in Russia, which was frozen when the US imposed sanctions in 2014.

He may also face questions from senators over the potential benefits to ExxonMobil from US foreign policy if sanctions imposed on Russia after its annexation of Crimea were lifted.

Tillerson, who has spent the past 41 years at Exxon, was due to retire next year. According to regulatory filings he retains a huge financial interest in the oil company, owning $151m in company stock. In 2015 Tillerson’s total compensation including salary, bonus and new share awards, was worth $27.3m.

Exxon stands to gain or lose fortunes depending on the next secretary of state’s actions. In a 2015 regulatory filing the company said US sanctions against Russia over its dispute with Ukraine had cost the company $1bn.


Donald's making good progress with draining that swamp I see. Good show.

link

User avatar
CorruptUser
Posts: 8725
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:12 pm UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:28 pm UTC

Well duh. If global warming occurs, the swamps will naturally dry up.

KnightExemplar
Posts: 5489
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 1:58 pm UTC

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:26 pm UTC

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-t ... SKBN1431KU

Not all is gloom and doom in Trumpland. But Uber can go ahead and fuck itself.
First Strike +1/+1 and Indestructible.


Return to “News & Articles”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Gwydion and 20 guests